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US Retail Investor - Do You Feel Lucky?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment, but for all those calling for multiple expansion to save us from dismal earnings - take a look at this...

 

 

Source: dshort.com

 

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Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:55 | 3397017 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I'm not feeling very lucky

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:58 | 3397026 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Didnt Larry Fuckin Fink say that US equities are cheap????

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:05 | 3397060 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Although it has helped the economy having stock prices higher, rates speak a different tune. 

A correction is likely in the cards.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:11 | 3397088 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

The DOW was down 5 fuckin days in March...FIVE FUCKIN DAYS...guesss which days those were...the non fuckin POMO days....and i can see the April sched...its another 4 non POMO days this month. Just short at the close of the day before those 4 non POMO days and cover during the non POMO days....thats the only time to go short this joke of a market.

Btw, there will be rumblings in MiddleEast this month...it seems way to quiet there recently.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:14 | 3397106 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, can't have 'peace and good times' without the constant daily threat of WW3 at any moment.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:34 | 3397186 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Didnt Larry Fuckin Fink say that US equities are cheap????

Anything Fink says should be relegated immediately to the dustbin, guy is a giant wanker. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:40 | 3397209 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

I know his son JF, hes a little wanker but a j-wanker nevertheless.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:16 | 3397113 Prison Justice
Prison Justice's picture

Joke or not, money is out there to be made!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:39 | 3397197 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Yep. Short sales are wonderful things.

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:28 | 3397165 joshdance
joshdance's picture

The five down days for the dow in March were the 15th, 18th, 21st, 25th, 27th.  According to this schedule:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule_130331.html

POMO went on during all 5 of those days.  So, am I missing something, or you're just talking out of your ass without doing the research?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:09 | 3397307 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Yeah so....I took a page out of CNBS and the BLS.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:35 | 3397185 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Remember the half-life of QE's discussed here previously; this current run is very long in the tooth

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:45 | 3397221 negative rates
negative rates's picture

That POMO, is that like a monthly period thing? Or more severe??

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:36 | 3397567 auric1234
auric1234's picture

What are you talking about? I see it went down on 15, 18, 21, 25 and 27, but all these were POMO days according to March schedule.

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:15 | 3397110 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Helped the economy eh?  Which economy exactly?  The economy of the increased food stamp users?  The economy of those unemployed no longer counted? Or the small percentile that hold stocks?  Eat my cock Krugman. Eat it hard.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:23 | 3397138 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Having stocks higher has helped pensioners - those who worked 30 years and braved long hours so they could retire; it has helped 401(k)s, or in other words, peoples life savings; it has helped restore confidence in the financial system.

P.S. the end of your post is disturbing.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:25 | 3397149 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

YOU are DISTURBING.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:25 | 3397155 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Paul just print the money and send everyone a check if you are such a good guy. Your post implies that everyone non federal worker did not also work many years and long hours.

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:53 | 3397192 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Pensioners would have been better served with sound money earned and saved. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:39 | 3397194 Evil Bugeyes
Evil Bugeyes's picture

Having stocks higher has helped pensioners -

Same thing was said in 1929. ZIRP has pushed pensioners into stocks in search of yield. When the bubble pops, I'm sure those pensioners will be thanking Bernanke and Krugman for the many blessings they have bestowed on retirees.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:46 | 3397225 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Zero interest and trillions of latent inflation has helped savers?? Restored confidence????

What's the atmosphere like on your planet?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:54 | 3397253 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

First part is true, but I think the entire world is on edge about the future continuation of that restored confidence.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:37 | 3397387 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Having stocks higher has helped pensioners"-  At what cost? Is cat food on sale?  What is the price of food and fuel relative to 5 years ago again?  Are you saying these people don't need to eat?  Fucking troll.  Nice to see that even Krugman admits that this is a con-game.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:58 | 3397453 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Helped pensioners down the stairs....

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:46 | 3397751 Unique Snowflake
Unique Snowflake's picture

...at freefall speed.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 22:49 | 3398175 Quit Your Bitchin
Quit Your Bitchin's picture

If the Fed didn't have interest rates beat into the ground, pensioners could have lower risk investments.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:02 | 3397280 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

+1 for style points... even though you fed the troll, at least you fed him... well.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:31 | 3397175 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

At least Minsky was honest in a thought Captain Obvious

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:09 | 3397298 tictawk
tictawk's picture

any shred of credibility you had was lost with the TRILLION DOLLAR PLATINUM coin. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:08 | 3397293 Banksters
Banksters's picture

The solution to the problem is quite clear.  Ratchet up credit to people with declining wages, securitize the debt, and then sell it to unwitting pension funds, and other dumb money investors.  What? We already did that?

SHIT! 

Back to the high finance drawing board, muppets.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:57 | 3397021 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I love how there are ETRADE ads right below this.

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:00 | 3397036 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Really ? All keep seeing are ads for Swedish englarging pumps and cant figure out why.

Thats really not my thing ..........

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:15 | 3397049 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

The legendary Ron Jeremy has to eat too you know

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:06 | 3397066 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

Austin Powers?  Is that you?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:14 | 3397103 SpiceMustFlow
SpiceMustFlow's picture

I'm all in, after all, "danger's my middle name"

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:04 | 3397056 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

LOl I'm getting mature dating ads, old birds with bellies hanging out. Not a good look!!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:41 | 3397204 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Where does this site get its information? I'm getting Buy Gold ads, a Full Sail University ad, and a gay marriage survey. WTF?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:10 | 3397311 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I'm getting anger management ads...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:38 | 3397390 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I'm getting 'Spring Break' ads for Las Vegas.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:42 | 3397405 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

LMAO @ Hulk getting anger management ads +1000

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:55 | 3397776 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

Filipina girls, Latina girls, mature girls, snorg tees, vanguard. hmmmm.

Tue, 04/02/2013 - 03:54 | 3398556 Terp
Terp's picture

What are these "ads" all you good people keep talking about?

Are you implying there is some kind of merchandise on the internets?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:59 | 3397028 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i love how the dow will close green. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:03 | 3397044 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

How could it not? Godzilla and King Kong could start throwing their own shit at each other in the middle of Manhattan and the Dow would close green. We'd need fucking industrial cleansers to remove all of Krugman's broken-window-induced splooge.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:10 | 3397314 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Damn, there's a visual !!!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:59 | 3397031 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

'there are buyers coming in as we speak"...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:06 | 3397067 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

So you're sayin I've got a chance(to get in and cash out with a profit) sarc off

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:00 | 3397034 deus x machina
deus x machina's picture

read my lips:  YOU LOSE!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:00 | 3397038 unrulian
unrulian's picture

...punk

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:02 | 3397042 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The funny part is, all the 'retail investors' I speak to, including 401K Bathrobe Brigadeers, pensioners, etc, not only 'feel lucky' but are now absolutely convinced their investments are shrouded in impermeable bullet proof teflon body armor as well. 

Man, a whole lot of people are in for the rudest of awakenings one of these mornings.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:07 | 3397069 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Chairman Bernanke noted that these are nominal highs after the last Fed minutes, but with rates this low, stocks should turn down.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:13 | 3397093 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But only 'nominally' high....remove the 0% rate and $100 billion free hot splooge injections per month and where would we be....DOW 3,000 or so?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:46 | 3397228 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Dow is back to 2007 levels, but healthcare costs are up 50% since then ... which helped the pensioners with their 401(k)s so much.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:48 | 3397238 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You don't seriously follow the law in any way, do you? You shall soon become a troubled man if you do.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:59 | 3397268 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Very simple explanation about PK. He is an exhibitionist and a masochist, Why else he will  be sticking around after all  the abuse he gets about his stupid comments?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:02 | 3397048 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"...well do ya', punk!?"

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:03 | 3397050 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Going to hock pms (in a bubble anyway) and hop this train to nowhere...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:04 | 3397054 machineh
machineh's picture

CNBS interpretation: still 10 percent upside to the 1929 peak.

Buy now, before prices go up!

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:07 | 3397070 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Everybody's doing it...!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:07 | 3397071 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'There's never been a better time to buy sum stawks than right now! Contact your local sell-side broker today!'

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:05 | 3397062 q99x2
q99x2's picture

That's a long way for Bernanke to keep pumping the markets before he gets to where his predecessor got to. BTFD.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:08 | 3397075 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

I love how on days like today you see broad based equity indexes like Russell 2000 IWM down 1.34% while the DOW is only down .04%.

Nothing to see here folks.  Just FOCUS on the DOW....all other numbers are meaningless.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:10 | 3397083 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Retail investor? As 60%+ is HFT and 40% is done in dark pools. Wonder who got the ticket to pump the DOW to almost green, I am a little bit disappointed that they didn't manage it only in the last 10 seconds. Probably tomorrow.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:13 | 3397101 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

The Efficient Market Hypothesis tells us this time is different.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:16 | 3397119 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

because the market will rise at least another 100% this year and make us all rich....
yes... I understand the hypothesis....

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:23 | 3397143 Whatta
Whatta's picture

It IS different this time....as Central Planning Inc will NOT EVER GIVE UP!!!. It is permanent.

They will take our guns, take our wealth, tax our fun and kill our health.

They will make up war, make up games, tax our death with no shame!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:15 | 3397108 midtowng
midtowng's picture

I wish I was smarter to be able to read that chart. All I can tell from it is that we are in Tech Bubble area.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:14 | 3397109 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

what I want to know is.... Can you short bitcoins in any way?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:17 | 3397125 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

@Sudden Debt

Yes, just like stocks. You'd have to borrow some. But since that question can be answered by any rudimentary search engine, I just have to conclude you're trolling under the guise of veiled innocence.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:13 | 3397323 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

"Feigned innocence."

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:20 | 3397132 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Talk someone into loaning you some at a small rate of interest for a specified period of time. Sell immeditately. Keep $. Buy back later at reduced price to return to lender, plus interest. Keep difference. Buy gold.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:18 | 3397122 vernwvu
vernwvu's picture

Can someone explain this to me.  I get most of what goes on here, but this one is escaping me for some reason... I blame too many hard boiled eggs.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:19 | 3397130 Whatta
Whatta's picture

gimme a "B", gimme a "U", gimme a "B", gimme another "B", gimme an "L", gimme an "E"......and what's that spell....

 

BERNANKE!!!!!! Wheeeeee.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:24 | 3397145 johngaltinvestments
johngaltinvestments's picture

this time it's different

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:25 | 3397148 breakyoself
breakyoself's picture

Somebody get Pisani and Polcari in here to tell these sheeple how bernanke's market is the best thing ever.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:25 | 3397157 The Duke of New...
The Duke of New York A No.1's picture

Benankes' Printing Presses will take avg. P/E's to well under 10. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:53 | 3397170 css1971
css1971's picture

Is that data going all the way back or have you got anything split at the 1971 Nixon Shock? The currency regime changed then so P/Es pre and post 71 are not comparable.

The Shiller P/E averages the last 10 years, which is valid for pre 1971 data, but post 1971, money and debt goes exponential, so the most recent prices in the average are exponentially larger than the prices in the earlier years of the average, this skews the Shiller P/E numbers to the up side. The pre 1971 Shiller P/E average would be about 15 but the post 1971 averages are closer to 19-20.

What I'm saying is you got some bad maths there.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 16:31 | 3397176 Dineroguru
Dineroguru's picture

Come my little muppets....Mr Market won't hurt you!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:06 | 3397290 mind_imminst
mind_imminst's picture

Just eye-ing the graph presented...it looks like we have quite a ways to go before a blow-off top, especially considering the coordinated fiat destruction/printing going on across the world. This time is different than 1929, the tech bubble, the housing bubble, etc... because demand (fake or not, thin or not) for stocks is being driven by central banks, not by a mania in the investing public. The investing public faced reprecussions for their "irrational exuberance". The FED has nothing to worry about. There is almost nothing that can stop them from pushing stocks a lot higher from the current levels. There are currently no consequences. I am unsure why stocks would decline anytime soon (on a nominal basis of course)

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:10 | 3397303 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

T+1:10............CDR..... Roger, go at throttle up.

T+1:13............PLT..... Uhoh.

T+1:13.......................LOSS OF ALL DATA.

 

hujel

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:39 | 3397381 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Clark Griswald:  I think you're all fucked in the head! We're ten hours from the fucking fun park and you want to bail out.

    Well I'll tell you something, this is no longer a vacation, it's a quest. It's a quest for fun, I'm gonna have fun and you're gonna have fun, we're all gonna have so much fucking fun we'll need plastic surgery to remove our goddamn smiles!

    You'll be whistling Zip-A-Dee-Doo-Dah out of your assholes! I gotta be crazy; I'm on a pilgrimage to see a moose! Praise Marty Moose! Oh, shit!

   ref; National Lampoons Vacation

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:41 | 3397397 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Must be all in the family over there.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:08 | 3397480 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Now show us the chart for the fantasy planet where Amazon and Facebook trade, you know, the one where the scale starts at 2000.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:26 | 3397536 They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

I can tell you are a conservative investor. You are assuming Amazon's PE can fit in that chart...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:28 | 3397538 Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

I stand corrected.  I thought pigs were now fat enough.  But the chart shows there are still some ways to go.  So, it will go on a little while more.  Tiring, isn't it?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 21:29 | 3397991 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

I don't believe that poster is Krugman.  Krugman wouldn't waste his time posting propaganda

like that here on Zerohedge - he knows we're not his preferred run-of-the-mill gullible sheeple here.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!