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Factory Orders "Saved By The Transports", Annual Increase Barely Positive
That the US manufacturing sector has hardly performed in line with a record stock market is not news to anyone, and was confirmed most recently when the February CapEx number was revealed (i.e., Durable Goods non-defense ex aircraft) and missed expectations. Today, we closed to page on February production with the monthly Factory Orders, which printed just better than expected at the headline level or 3.0% vs expectations of a 2.9% number. However, just like with the Durable Goods data, this was entirely driven by the transportation industry, i.e., Boeing airplanes. Stripping transports, the increase from January to February was a tiny 0.3%, far below the 2.0% sequential increase in the prior month, as the entire delta in the headline increase from $477.5 billion to $492 billion was purely as a result of transports. Finally, when looked at correct on a Year over Year basis, this is how Factory Orders (headline and ex-trans) look. Surely this chart of economic activity should explains record stock prices, as sadly no other one can.
Source: Census Bureau
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it is cool though.. they already made their loot smoking crude thi morning.. now its time to ramp stocks and smoke bonds.... http://www.hedgeaccording.ly/2013/04/tfp-morning-letter-for-march-2-2013...
Bitcoin is floating the markets!
Spot the recovery in HARPEX container shipping index...
TD, when do we get our Gov't Motors channel stuffing update?
The problem with BC is there is nothing to stop an infinite number of different digital coins with other names that operate exactly as BitCoin from diluting BitCoin yet BC is being sold as undilutable.
Not that it doesn't make a great short-term speculation.
Yep, the pendulum swings and the front running of centrally planned stupidity continues. Bond rates must remain range bound (below 2.0 % for the ten year) in order to maintain the corrupt status quo. Some things never change (until supply lines break).
Going through the paces.
An economy? Really ?
A market ? Really ?
$85 billion a month. Investing for Dummies.
BTFD are getting tighter and tighter.
It will be a nasty unwind but living here in nirvana, it is hard to imagine when.
85 billion, that we know of. If Ben made it 120 million per month, what would the world do? Seriouly, the guy has lied to congress, he's monetizing debt directly, this is treason, yet no one gives a shit.
The talking heads just keep talking about the historical highs.
It is the equivalent of starting a marathon at mile 25 and then cheering that a new world record was broken.
The system is getting 85 billion in sales every month from out of no where and these propagandists just spew the same shit every day. You can see some of the analysts on these shows starting to crack. They realize that a "normal" market or a "gently manipulated" market would not behave in this manner.
When the music stops there is going to be no chairs to sit on.
Bullish Boeing!
Boeing made perfect transition to peacetime economy--now has self-destructing planes. krugmanian wet dream.
By way of observation, I was driving past the Silao (Mexico) GM plant yesterday and the factory grounds were covered choc-a-block with trucks (plant makes suburbans, pickups, expeditions). more inventory stacking than i've ever seen. apparently Narcos have adopted dodge trucks as their transportation of choice (hence chrysler's report).
Ben Bernanke Special: Symphony of Destruction
http://wallstreetfool.com/2013/04/02/ben-bernanke-special-symphony-of-destruction/
transport... like in... CONTAINERS FULL OF MONEY ARE SHIPPED TO POINT X?
In addition to be comparable we should compare this month prelim numbers to last month prelim numbers. Last month was revised down, making the gain this month look much better. The comparison with last month's initial numbers ... not so much.
Whine glass formation returning.
the stock market is a function of the machinations of fed gangsters. the real economy irrelevant.
In the electronics industry, we are flat to slightly up ... a little more positive in Asia than the US, but Europe is surprisingly doing fine after adjusting in 2012. There have been shift however. Don't expect anything from solar in the US or Europe ... it is all but gone ... gone east already!
DJ Transports now trading below its 25-day moving average.
That is all.
Buy it
Don't touch it
I am just curious. If a 10% correction happened next week, what would everyone on here do?
I can only speak for myself: go and check the price of my currently almost worthless FTSE puts!
to make money, i would second guess the sheeplish hedge funds and watch the flows to passive sector index trackers.
10% up or down, then another 10% up or down, then another 10% up or down is meaningless for "feeling good" about owning a share in the profits of a company these days.
i use nominal gdp growth as a hurdle rate, rule of thumb nominal gdp growth of 4% per annum for each of the last three calendar years gives me a clue as to the extent of the impact of QE.
if overall market indices are predicated on a 2% ten year treasury yield plus 3% (normal) equity risk premium as a proxy for a forward fcf/pe (so 20) and I believe that the rate should be 4% plus 4% (slightly dodgy) equity risk premium (so 12.5) we are talking about "fair"value of the s&p500 dropping from the current P 1565 times 5% = $78.25 value of E, grossed up at 12.5 = of to c. 1,000 (978) for a fall of a third from spot.
i did find a comment i read today interesting in that earnings do not have to grow at all for there to be a +ve return because companies (rather than paying out dividends) are buying back their own stock, hence engaging in financial engineering to massage returns per share higher. i don't see how this works at the moment because shareholders percentage in ivestments in companies, including treasury shares, doesn't change one jot. the company just saves itself the pro-rate earnings and dividends (of any). (some benefit from retained earnings/dividends accruing to treasury shares..but what difference does this make unless the company can spend it - rather than stocking up cash to protect against a one third downturn in the economy or to fund pension liabilities or to get confiscated/taxed).
so "ho hum"!
Durable Power Of Non-Confirmations & Fakeouts
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/04/durable-power-of-non-confirmations.html
Reporting season is underway.
JPM on the 12th. GS on the 16th. Google on the 18th.