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You Know The Market's Euphoric When...
We noted last night the 'six charts' that represent the sum total of the hopefulness of these markets with relation to fundamental earnings but it is the ratio of negative to positive earnings guidance - which stands at a record high - that should worry investors the most (and doesn't). As the WSJ notes, in the last bull market, the negative corporate guidance ratio hit a peak of 2.38 in the third quarter of 2007 - just as that bull market was ending (and troughed at 0.97 right as the bottom was in in stocks in Q1 2009). The current 3.55 ratio is the highest on record. But what is more representative of the market's absolutely sanguine nature is that just 2 days after guiding earnings down, stock prices are down just 0.3% (and half the stocks actually rose). As the WSJ concludes, and we tend to agree, watch out. There may be a nasty drop on the other side of this wall.
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Ben has the market's back, it ain't breakin' until he stops printin', or hints at it.
markets don't work, charts don't work, regulators don't work, laws don't work, congress don't work, potus don't work, banks don't work,fairness don't work,equality don't work,distribution of wealth don't work,distribution of income don't work, schools don't work, cities don't work, people don't work.........but the guns seem to work just fine
"Jim Rogers: Major Crash Ahead For U.S. Investors"
But in reality, he says, "we're living in a fool's paradise."
http://moneymorning.com/ob-article/jim-rogers-major-crash-ahead.php?p=PP...
Been spending most our lives livin' in a banksta paradise
How come TZA is at $37?
4:1 reverse split, as of today... along with a dozen or so Direxion ETFs.
"Been spending most our lives livin' in a banksta paradise"
Where is Wierd Al when you need him? This would be a hit @ ZH
that paradigm is closing for us.......it will be tranformed into a new paradigm as the global reset of the chessboard is made. The "announcement" that occurs on a Friday night will be the final fuse for the monetary reset and you don't want to be holding equities on Monday morning when the "surprise" announcement is made.
Yeah, but I live in a Amish Paradise.
The Russell2k is looking like the canary in the coal mine-underperforming bigtime in the last few days!!!
Look, Ma- no hands!
“ratio of negative to positive earnings guidance - which stands at a record high". This is irrelevant in the present environment.
FED are printing money and the government has a humongous deficit supporting state, municipalities, and "private" companies like GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc. Then this money flows to pension funds, insurance companies, education enterprises, and financial institutions. Then what? These pension funds, insurance companies, education enterprises, and financial institutions must put money somewhere.
Where does all this money go? This money is "invested"=put it into financial markets. Here you have it. You create/get financial markets inflations and/or bubbles.
As for gold, Central banks are buying gold. They don't hide it. So, where and how do they buy physical gold? First, FED and their agent drive gold prices down. Next, the only places to buy physical gold without having runaway gold price are gold mining companies. These gold mining companies do not give a shit about their regular shareholders. They work for their owners. And who are these owners? They are the government, Central Banks, and financial institution.
How long can it go? As long as US$ is a world accepted reserve currency. Well, China, India, Brazil, Russia, etc., don’t like it. Their started to move out off US$ and US military cannot do a shit about it short of going to a full blown nuclear holocaust.
Finally, the US and EU economies are disintegrating the way USSR fell apart since Central Banks and Western government promote failed businesses and enterprises and killing everything productive and efficient.
Yeah but only if we can get some friggin ammo!!
your mind doesn't work,you should add.
Even then they can stop the markets from nominally breaking (hint: they are already broken). Tell me how are prices determined: free market? lol ... Bzzzzzttt, guess again! Computer control? Yuppers. Who owns and controls the majority of all equities of value? "Private Investors"? ... Bzzzzztttt, guess again! Internationally owned and controlled banks and their proxies? Yup again.
By the time Berstinkie is told to let it go, Satan's banks will own (and not just control through the DTCC), pretty much EVERYTHING of value, which they have purchased with crap fiat created out of thin air.
Seems kind of unfair, eh? To have the god given monopolistic power to create and distribute all fiat and trade it for everything of actual value. The people who actually CREATE value and don't just steal it ... productive capacity, commodities, the ability to make laws. etc. do not have that power.
But in THIS world, ownership is only as good as one's ability to control the asset by force. That is what government is for. Bankers won't dirty their hands. Ultimately that is a weakness. The people who are servants of the government can at any time, just say NEIN!
the trend is your friend, and the trend is clearly up. which is good, right????
During the other QE's stocks still seemed to at least adhere tacitly to technicals. And even had a correction now and then. But the last 3 months have been absurd, and the last 2 months especially(since the last week of January) have been utterly incomprehensible(at least to me). I realize any technical indicator taken by itself can be arbitrary, but I'm currently looking at a weekly reading of the Wilder RSI for the Dow, and a 5 week moving average for that indicator is now higher this week than at any point during the last 9+ years(as far back as my chart will go). It's higher than the highest point in the 2007 top(highest reading was beginning of June that year) and higher than any point in the 2011 top(highest reading was late February that year).
I understand the nature of the latest QE(indefinite monthly purchases of treasuries and MBS) is somewhat different and 'apparently' is a game changer.
But was it really THIS much of a game changer? Stocks are correlated to exactly ZERO other markets right now from what I can tell, how long can that last?
And as for the MBS the Fed is buying, weren't the banks already borrowing against those 'assets' before? And using the money to speculate in stocks/markets? Are the banks merely offloading junk MBS for cash, and immediately using that cash to make slightly less 'junky' loans(or even more junky loans for which they will then sell the Fed next month?) for which they can then borrow against?
I'm new to studying the markets, and apparently I picked an awful time to start learning. Someone tell me, how did it used to be?
land of the free, home of the brave,... in bernake we trust!!!
one single human being holds the countries fate in his hand-- now tell me that's not a hodgepodg'ory`uhmm of fascism, communism, socialism, feudalism, imperialism, nazi'ism, stalinism, and maoism, et.el.,-- altogether now...
he's got the world in his hand,... he's got the whole world in his hand's!!! cough, gasp,... this jewish prince from princeton knighted in jerusalem... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xscZeFD2m_o
Euphoric When...PMs getting wacked
eat shit Ben
Bad news is no news.
Hopeyness cures all ills.
Nobody will have seen this coming.
Hehehehhehehhe........."they" never do.........
Oh man, don't hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuStsFW4EmQ Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? [/sarc.]
http://cannonforhire.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/oddballkellysheroes2t1.jpg
Wake me when the Yuan gets below 4 to the dollar.
And, naturally, when this ratio starts to ease...it will be touted as mega bullish.
I'm surprised that I can be surprised any longer. Maybe the masses believe central planning will work this time. Save us Obama! Save us BernanQE! Save us Draghi! Having thoughts of the human sacrifice scene from "Apocolypto." We are no better than the Mayans were.
Nothing's Shocking anymore.
Perhaps the April time-frame will be the downslope as Max keiser has predicted. Usuall predictions of events corresponding a time-frame are dead in the water, though. We will see.
You Know The Market's Euphoric When... MORONS "INVEST" IN PETS.COM, BITCOINS, .... CAN'T LOSE!!
as long as you don't invest in miners or metals all will be well. buy some homebuilders, reits, amzn, nflx, etc.. [/not advice]
So they built a giant sandcastle and the Shitwaves are gathering force....why do we have to keep doing this? I believe the human species have evolved into total insanity, I really don't think it has a bright future at all.
shit waves - YouTube
Amen to that brother...Had a guy in my shoe shop this morning...wanted a boat shoe for the cruise he was taking after winning it at foxwoods casino...giddy as a teen that he can go on a floating cesspool with gambling winnings...the world is totally insane now
"We're sailing into a shit typhoon, Randy. Better haul in the jib before it gets covered in shit."
Earnings and fundamentals and the economy .... do.... not... matter .... to this 'market' propped up by free money from the ChairSatan
Recently :
1) Tech Bubble - Virtual was frictionless, therefore unlimited. Who needs earnings when your potential is unlimited?
2) Housing Bubble - Dialectically back to bricks and mortar. But behind the "real" was virtual money, i.e. leverage through credit. Who needs cash flow to pay down a loan, when that loan is already packaged and sold off, and it's credit risk falls to practically zero, because tranched.
3) Central Bank Bubble - Print unlimited money in a deflationary balance sheet recession. Do it in concerted fashion with the other major central banks. Transfer debt from the private balance sheet to the public, print money to cover the public debt.
Given the concerted action, I am afraid we are 1998, not 2007. Could be wrong. But greed and his brother stupidity are really just starting to come back into vogue.
Well, COVER then and seek another entry level. Buncha bitches; this sounds like the SRS board on Yahoo in 2009.
Anyway, the more they revise down, it will all the easier to 'beat expectations' thereby causing the share price to soar on the back of losses and no actual 'earnings'
Here comes the EURUSD. Seat belt sign is now on. Please disregard the missiles you see flying past. Counter measures in place.
But.. but CNBC said this morning that there is no market euphoria. Only "optimism!"
There is no 'market' just HFTs playing hot potatoes
There is no spoon..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzm8kTIj_0M
It is simple really. "Sell in May and go away." Same as it ever was. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYbUCvz1LYE
Yeahbut, humans are learning animals, they already learned "Sell in May and go away", so now you have to sell in April.
It's been clear to everyone except Bernanke that Central Bank over stimulus is causing multiple bubbles yet again like it always does.
So long as there is a dime left to be fleeced from what's left of the (Once-)Great American Middle-Class Sheeple, there will be no such thing as a "nasty drop" on Fraud Street.
These criminals are not ones to leave any cash on the table. At all. Period.
Blackberry did go down a bit but it soared with the news that thier marketshare dumped to near zero over the last quarter.
Then you get news that sales have been terrible in England, where the phone has been on sale for weeks.
BUT THE HOPE IS THERE BECAUSE A CARRIER ORDERED ONE MILLION BB10 PHONES!!!!
Stock to $50, $100, $10,000!!!!!!!
Look, I liked Blackberry phones. They were built well, but insanity is insanity.
The best news for a stock it seems is to say your business is terrible, but a year from now, IT'S GOING TO BE GREAT! The algos don't know it won't be.
Dow Jones up 102.
12% ROI for Q1.
About 45% annualized ROI for the Dow Jones - and 48M Americans on food stamps - 50% youth unemployment in Europe - brand new cities that are empty in China.
LMFAO.
Nice job Ben and Barry.
No worries... it will all trickle down.
Bulish!
i dont care about the data you mentioned,its all in the charts.Are you foolish enough to believe that market still reflects fundamentals?
Coincident Economic Activity And The S&P 500
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/04/coincident-economic-activity-and-s-500.html
I will believe it when I see it. So far there is NO METRIC that seems to even stop the market for more than a few hours. Fund managers simply do not care. There are select names (very few) that get sold but most are in constant buy mode.
Rally on earnings misses/bad guidance usually happens near the trough of a cycle - not the peak. Bad news is built in, turning around. However - like most other metrics you can measure - this market is completely disconnected from all risk. It is increasingly disconnected from economics as well, yet the big money continues to plow more in each day no matter what the levels.
401k money explains today's move. easter made it so deposits were not able to be invested on the 1st. Maybe one more day then...kaboom.
blah blah blah - this moron almost came yesterday when YM mkt retraced about 40 points.Mind you,hes been bearish at least since the Fiscall Cliff in Dec.
Thats "market insight" by Durdens.
Dow 15k,here we come
This has got nothing to do with euphoria.
When the Fed/Primary dealers own everything and nobody to sell them to, it's simply a Roach Motel.
It is fair game amongst bankers to kill each other. Market stability and any kind of STABILITY is very bad for them.
Bankers live off spreads and volatility.
The problem is somebody influencing the White House is NOT allowing that to happen, IMO.
I will try to find out.
let's recap the records...
SNAP is at record highs, and sets a new record every 60 seconds or so, every day.
public debt is at record highs and sets a new record at least 120 times every 60 seconds of every day.
federal spending is at record highs and sets a new record at least of often and as quickly as public debt.
and the dreaded sequester hasn't even remotely slowed the accumulation of the above mentioned debt.
unfunded liabilities have strayed into territory inhabited only by mathematical insanity, the ultimate game of kick the can, at 123 trillion why even bother counting anymore?
companies filling what once were full time positions with part time employees has got to be at record highs, one need look no further than the employment ads and job fairs to figure that one out.
DHS ammo and APC purchases at record highs and of course, they refuse to tell congress why.
DOW at record highs.
now I ask you which of these records give a true picture of the "real" state of the union, and which would any sane, reasonable person capable of critical thinking take with a grain of salt?
Dollar up, market up, gold down, trouble is brewing. who am i kidding? BTFD
No euphoria here: http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/02/news/companies/fannie-mae-record-profit/