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ADP March Private Jobs Miss, Lowest Since October

Tyler Durden's picture


Remember the now traditional economic data weakness that the US experiences come every Spring in the past 3 years courtesy of the rotation out of artificially boosting winter seasonal adjustments? Well, after a big miss in the PMI and ISM we may be getting just that, with the ADP private payrolls data moments ago posting the lowest monthly increase since October at just 158,000, well below the 200,000 expected, and far below last month's revised 237,000 (was 198,000), which means that post the revision the February number is just 1,000 off the NFP print of 236,000: ADP, under Mark Zandi, now and always desperately trying to be a BLS echo chamber. Notably in the breakdown of jobs, March saw +0 Construction jobs added: hardly the stuff great housing recoveries are made of. The good news, if any, is that small business finally were the biggest generator of jobs, adding 74,000, or just less than half of total, with medium and large accounting for 37,000 and 47,000 respectively. And since, empirically, the revised ADP methodology has been far more accurate than previously, the question is how to pre-spin this Friday's jobs number, which stands at the near-ADP consensus of 196,000, which suddenly looks far more in peril of a downside miss.

From the report:

"The U.S. private sector added 158,000 jobs in the month of March 2013, with the majority of the new jobs created by service providers," said Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "Over the first quarter of 2013, the ADP National Employment Report has reported an average gain of 191,000 new private sector jobs per month."


Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth moderated in March. Construction employment gains paused as the rebuilding surge in the wake of Superstorm Sandy ended. Anticipation of Health Care Reform may also be weighing on employment at companies with close to 50 employees. The job market continues to improve, but in fits and starts.”

March data snapshot:

Change in total private employment: lowest since October. Some recovery:

Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry

And the now generic exciting, social-network friendly inforgraphic:

Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows Solid Job Gains, Adding 158,000 Jobs in March

Source: ADP

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Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:32 | 3402615 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Great news.

Bernanke gets the green light to increase QEinfinity.

What we really need is to bring back NINJA home loans (not just car loans).....that will bring back those construction jobs ;)

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:33 | 3402626 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Beat me to it. MOAR QE.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:40 | 3402650 fomcy
fomcy's picture

Oh, that's definitely bullish for stocks.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:48 | 3402674 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

There used to be things that weren't bullish for stocks

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:55 | 3402700 morning_glory
morning_glory's picture

[Montgomery Burns] Excellent!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:00 | 3402722 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



If you like that....just wait for the revisions.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:01 | 3402983 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Recovery summer on the way    oh....wait.... that was 2009 meme

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 19:10 | 3406000 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

You'd think summa dem green shoots woulda rooted by now, neh?

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:41 | 3402874 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bring back the appraisers that double the value of the home so I can take out a loan at 3.5% in cash and default! 

I hear they will give auto loans to anyone that can fog a mirror now.  It makes it easy for those from outside the country to buy a nice expensive car and disappear outside the US with it and default on payments.

Can't help of thinking about all the fraud we muppets can do with the blatant Federal Reserve scams and schemes. It fosters thinking of new capers and  criminal behavior.


Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:32 | 3402621 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Zandi also said the sequester is just now beginning to hit.  Along with Obamacare.....

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:04 | 3402733 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Can you believe they are peddling the "Obamacare Survival Guide" on MSM?  So now we have to survive our health care system!  Good times!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:00 | 3402969 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Zandi is an obama sack swinger, just following the meme

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:32 | 3402625 breakyoself
breakyoself's picture

Ben says, nothing more QE can't fix.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:33 | 3402629 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Welcome to the effects of Obamacare.  Next time read the bill.  Idiots.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:36 | 3402636 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Easier said than done!  They had to pass the bill to find out what was in it!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:15 | 3403393 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

That was Congress.

The Pharms and Insurers (or at least their banks and banks of lawyers), know what EVERY word means.

Bet on it, they wrote it, not CONgress.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:52 | 3402682 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Health Insurance companies find way 2 get out of Obamacare rules

And of course they did - they FUCKING WROTE THE BILL!!!!!!11111

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:36 | 3402635 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

recovery! good for a s&p ramp up!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:38 | 3402639 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture


Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:37 | 3402642 Cursive
Cursive's picture

With Obamacare kicking in, it is rational that we see more job growth at smaller companies than larger companies.  This is not traditional small company hiring.  It is workforce shifting to avoid Obamacare regulations.  Notice that companies w/1-19 employees hired more than companies w/20-49 employees.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:54 | 3402689 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This is due to the rise of 1099 employment.

Many smaller companies are more and more relying on temp help, as well as individual contract hiring (i.e. finding a Java programmer on Craigslist for a 3 month gig), to meet demand (as well as cut out labor overhead costs).

We are becoming a nation of at-will employment. 

It won't end well.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:27 | 3403089 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

All home businesses. All only have one employee in the 1-19 and the IRS has a whole crew dedicated to taking those poor SOB's out.

I wouldn't get too excited over that, just the latest way to screw John Q.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:15 | 3403381 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

@Cursive 100% nail on the head.

What ADP doesn't mention is the percent of part time - no more than 30 hours a week to avoid O'care -  jobs that were added.

Because the gross number dropped from Jan & Feb, it is ominous.

Quite a few of these jobs will be found to have never existed when they do the yearly re-adjustments, sadly, that is never a focus of ANY MSM article.

The sheep remain intentionally clueless, the middle continues to be taxed and regulated and prosecuted out of existence.

Too bad the sheep don't realize that their employers are a handful of regulations - or government agencies - away from going Galt.

Nice to see somebody sees at least part of it.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:39 | 3402644 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

NPR just reported this, noting only that it was an increase.

Hey America! An increase is still an increase, even it was a smaller increase.  Its all up up and away!

And just to note, if there ever was a drop in payroll numbers as negative, here let me save NPR on how to write this, "...in April payroll numbers posted the lowest decrease in 3 years, coming in at just a negative 88,000"

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:20 | 3403423 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

NPR also believes a part-time job, minimum wage job, is still a "real" job. 

Plus it adds to their do-gooder success of SNAP card percentages of population.

Those liberals are so generous with our labor, time and money. 

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 12:51 | 3403931 twh99
twh99's picture

And the fact that we need about 175,000 jobs a month to just keep up with population growth, never seems to register with the MSM.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:43 | 3402658 tok1
tok1's picture

makes no sense he;s saying within 3 months people arranged insurance orgainsed builders and finished the repairs.. and now everyones gone home in 3 months..

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:46 | 3402668 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Have you confused "making sense" with "outright lying"?

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:06 | 3403004 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

Such bullshit. If anything, Sandy spending and rebuilding would be accelerating due to the upcoming summer season as people are trying to get their houses ready. So it says in the major Mid-Atlantic fishwrappers, at least. Plus contractors in this area typically over-extend themselves and would likely be hiring people to compensate in order to avoid angry homeowners calling them incessantly when it dawns upon them that the project will no longer be completed by Memorial day as promised.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:48 | 3402675 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The net construction jobs was 0, but hey guys....it DIDN'T GO DOWN!!!  RECOVERY!!!111


Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:47 | 3402907 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

Does the New Normal mean that there is a housing and homebuilder recovery sans construction hires?

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:53 | 3402688 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"Stock prices never go down," my financial adviser told me last week.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:54 | 3402692 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Miss it Noonan.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:57 | 3402707 digalert
digalert's picture

What? Most of the jobs came from small business?

Don't worry, Barry Obama will deal with this shortly.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 08:59 | 3402711 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Notice they have Lord Ben scheduled for later today.  That negates this report.  These people aren't as stupid as you think.  They aren't as all-powerful either which will be obvious in the end.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:00 | 3402716 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Recessions under Neo Liberalism will never exist again.  The central banks and the corporations and their eliteist charmers have it all taken care of.  Everything is going to be OK.  All is well.

Reminds me of when the late poker great Chip Reese would, with his Cheshire Cat grin on his face, go to rich whales in Las Vegas and say, "Hey buddy.....you should come to our poker table.  We have all the best food, drink, and of course.....YOUR best games.  What do you have to lose (wink)?"


Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:01 | 3402721 LuckoftheIrish
LuckoftheIrish's picture

That is precisely why I hate my financial advisor. "Time is on your side." "Dollar cost averaging." If he's so bloody smart, why is he still workig at 70+??? I think he may be MDB.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:08 | 3402749 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

My dads financial advisor talked my dad out of a $400k gold purchase several years ago becuase gold was too expensive at $500oz.  Sure would've been nice to have that now as the other plan was to live off the interest. Fuck the Fed.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:21 | 3402783 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

That is precisely why I hate my financial advisor. "Time is on your side." "Dollar cost averaging." If he's so bloody smart, why is he still workig at 70+???

Because he's probably a jew?

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:39 | 3402867 LuckoftheIrish
LuckoftheIrish's picture

HAAA! I hadn't thought of that. It's my SIMPLE 401k or I'd kick him to the curb. I barely contribute enough to make the employer match worth it - with his yearly fee. For doing nothing.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:22 | 3402787 corporate slave
corporate slave's picture

From http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

Calculus are made from Moody's Analytic's from this document: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/common/docs/ADP-NER-Methodology-Full-Detail.pdf

Sure do they know what a Stratified sample size means? Doubt about it. I think ¿¿¿¿wikipedia???? (How's it possible?),  has more to teach them: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size#Stratified_sample_size


Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:26 | 3402801 corporate slave
corporate slave's picture

They say it is a volatile data. No they are a statistical data rubbish

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:14 | 3403027 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

Zandi used to portray himself as 'objective' (and a decade ago he seemed 'value-added') ...... it seems tho' Team 44 (WashDC Dems ...>? my useless speculation)  got to him and he has become essentially an economic propagadist at this point.  [Disclosure:  in my estimation, Austin Goolsbee, the former econ advisor to Team 44 now at UofChicago, has more cred than Zandi ... seriously .. that is how weak I think Zandi has evolved...]  Why do I say this?  Because he crossed the line of 'reporting/analyzing' into spinning a while ago.  Therefore, his credibility & relevance is debatable. With so many sources for 'analysis' why even waste eyeball time on these 'interpretations'?  And as you point out (e.g., 'volatile data'), this is like studying the patterns of ants as they migrate to & from a food source for 'market' or 'economic' insights

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:14 | 3403386 GoldRetriever
GoldRetriever's picture

Any report released by Mooody's is impacted by "SuperSpin Zandi."

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:27 | 3402798 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

The S&P 500 chart reminds me of the mountain slope that yodeling muppet climbed on that Price is Right game.
I don't recall it turning out too good for that climbing muppet if the player didn't win in time.


Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:30 | 3402820 Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

Someone...somewher must have performed the calculation.  At some point in time, with an increase in interest rates, the amount of interest on US debt will exceed the amount of total revenue collected.  Right now the USA pays around $500B on $17Trillion of debt.  The US treasury takes in $2.4Trillion but spends $3.4Trillion.  At some point, the interest will exceed the income.  The two year is at .002486%.   The 10 year at 1.86%.  I can not imagine that in 10 years, current interest rates will exist.  So my point is...someone...somewhere must have done the math.  When the interest expense and income intersect, game over...we're done.  It's all based upon interest rate expectations.  If anyone has an answer as to that tipping point...let me know....I need to get out of dodge.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 09:33 | 3402832 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

It's kinda like doing the math to see if the Leafs can get a playoff spot.
When you get down to counting the remaining games, it's already over.

(Sadly, I am a Leaf fan, by the way - THIS IS THE YEAR!)

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:45 | 3403199 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

Sorry, 1967 was the year. This year is just another year!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:43 | 3403189 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Bullish.  Good time to enter the stock market.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:44 | 3403190 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

From Baby Credits to Carbon Credits.  President Obama’s science czar John Holden was an advocate of baby credits to control global cooling before he advocated carbon credits to control global warming. You cannot make this stuff up. http://tinyurl.com/d9cdqwe

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