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Guest Post: New Bird Flu Strain Creates Fear And Surveillance
Authored by Peter Christian Hall, originally posted at Reuters,
An emerging bird flu that is mysterious and deadly is haunting China. With four fresh H7N9 cases reported in Jiangsu Province and no indication as to how three Chinese adults caught the little-noted avian flu virus that killed two of them in March, the global medical community is hoping the new flu will calm down until China’s health system can determine how it spread.
“I can tell you this thing is real and definitely has the markings of being a killer,” says Jason Tetro, coordinator of the Emerging Pathogens Research Centre in Ottawa, which on Monday examined gene sequences from three of China’s H7N9 cases.
“I don’t wish to cause panic,” Tetro said in an interview, noting that if the subtype were proven to have emerged from a small farm, he wouldn’t be much alarmed. Infecting a big poultry reservoir, on the other hand, might well enable H7N9 to access Asia’s wild bird population. The upstart subtype could then become as menacing as H5N1, which since 2005 has officially taken 371 lives in 622 cases, mostly in China, Southeast Asia and Egypt, according to the World Health Organization. The additional Chinese cases have convinced Tetro that “close contact with birds” has been involved. “And I think the CAFOs [industrial chicken farms] have definitely contributed to the evolution of this virus,” he says.
Already, “the internal genes of H7N9 are very close to those of H5N1,” says Mike Coston, a widely read American flu blogger, in an interview. (Coston’s Avian Flu Diary noted on March 14 that a paper in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control’s Emerging Infectious Disease Journal had identified the Shanghai area as one well suited to breed a new genetic subtype of influenza.)
In a development unwelcome to Chinese authorities, many Chinese microbloggers are associating the H7N9 deaths with the still-unexplained swine carcasses that last month floated down the Huangpu River, which provides Shanghai’s drinking water. (Local health officials announced on Monday that the dead pigs contained no bird flu virus.)
Memories of China’s repression of news during its tumultuous 2002-03 SARS outbreak could fuel panic and unrest at home and suspicion in the West. A Tuesday editorial in China Daily reminded readers that China’s minister of health and the mayor of Beijing were dismissed 10 years ago “for trying to cover up the disease.” And there are signs that authorities this time, too, have been less than forthcoming; the Jiangsu Province Health Department announced the four new H7N9 cases only after a microblogger whose Weibo profile says he is a hospital administrator posted a shot of what looked like a patient’s diagnosis on Tuesday.
This might explain why FluTrackers, a U.S. website that hosts a global volunteer disease-surveillance network, has been suffering renewed denial-of-service attacks that it says are originating in China. The Florida-based site first noted server overloads in April 2011 and was told by its server provider in mid-December 2012 that page views from China were running at an “astonishing” level that closed the month at almost 10 million, said Sharon Sanders, FluTrackers’ president and editor-in-chief, in a series of e-mail exchanges.
After FluTrackers banned Chinese IP addresses that were sending thousands of requests, traffic slowed by more than two-thirds, only to rebound in March to almost 6.7 million page views from China. “When the site goes down, it is extremely inconvenient,” wrote Sanders, but a backup site that uses “multiple social media venues” makes it “really impossible to take us down.”
Why would Chinese authorities care about FluTrackers? For one thing, the nonprofit website is watching China. An item Sanders posted on March 7 seems to have constituted the first overseas mention of the Shanghai H7N9 cases. While journalists in China and Hong Kong dig for stories there, FluTrackers has about 50 regular posters and several hundred intermittent volunteers tracking and documenting threats to public health — particularly emerging diseases — around the world. The site, which Sanders founded with some fellow H5N1 watchers in 2006, publishes daily in English, French, Dutch and Italian, biweekly in Spanish, and occasionally in German, operating 24 hours a day, seven days a week. “No one is paid. Everyone is a volunteer,” she wrote. “We do not accept any advertisements and we do not sell anything.”
On Monday, for instance, Chinese authorities and the World Health Organization took heart that no signs of human-to-human H7N9 transmission had surfaced. That evening, FluTrackers posted a machine-translation of a bylined report that had just been posted at wenweipo.com, a Hong Kong newspaper’s website. The story tells of unusual pneumonia cases afflicting four men and a woman in a Shanghai hospital — all aged 60 to 70 and with no history of interpersonal contact. Speaking anonymously, a doctor is quoted as saying the hospital annually copes with about three cases of “unexplained severe pneumonia,” but that all five of the special cases are being labeled as such, though they have not been isolated. A second report indicated that three of them may have died.
So does H7N9 have pandemic potential? “I’d say that the majority of virus comes from H9N2, which many researchers have suspected could be the next pandemic. The makeup of this virus is similar to one that researchers have suspected could be the next pandemic. However it’s not quite there yet,” says Tetro. “We know that it is not spreading from human to human, but we know that in some cases, direct or close contact with poultry or birds is a route of infection.”
On the other hand, he finds the revelation of fresh cases in Jiangsu comforting: “This is actually an official statement. I’m more optimistic that we’re going to have a better epidemiological understanding of what is happening in China.”
“Many epidemics break out, spread and burn themselves out all the time in China. We just never hear about them,” says Coston. “But I think it’s already in the birds.”
We’ll all be watching.
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So, since this has all the earmarks of being 'the next pandemic', I guess you kick if off in China to help reduce the population of useless eaters.
What next? Monkey virus out of India?
Eat more possum.
The new flat meat.
And just think, just in time for all the new flat bread.
Is that chicken in your new Wendy's flatbread sandwich, or is it road kill playing possum between the lettuce and tomatos?
REPORT: BLOOMBERG EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE A BAN ON BIRDS FROM CITY TO CIRCUMVENT PANDEMIC
One of these times they may be right, but I've heard "we're all gonna die" too many times from the fear-mongers.
The makeup of this virus is similar to one that researchers have suspected could be the next pandemic. However it’s not quite there yet,” says Tetro.
Good place to start!
Cry wolf much? F'n shit, people, SARS killed fewer people in total than die in traffic in a week in some countries. Perspective, bitchez: this is another media scare campaign.
It creates exciting headlines, gets people worked up a little, defocused from day-to-day reality, and helps the pharmaceuticals sell vaccines, so, you know, it's an essential part of modern media.
Well, seeing as we're not exactly immortal, hardly the revelation of the century.
We suspect the concern is that of premature departure (unless you're 90+ with extensive morbidities when you expect, nay, demand, full resuscitation when your parts eventually fail!)
didnt we see this movie about a thousand times.....we know the drill...the world will end unless we stick this shit in ur arm..., than you can thank the govt. and big pharma for saving your life
Donald Rumsfeld is going to come out of hiding for this profit maker:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1176743/Donald-Rumsfelds-controv...
EBOLA.
Thats the one to be truly fearful of.
A really painful and messy way to die. Arthritic type pain in all body joints from internal bleeding, leading to profuse bleeding from all body openings, including your eyes. Finally ending in drowning in your own body fluids as they fill up your lungs. Coughing spasms are accompanied with bloody sputum being freely spread about.
Highly contagious, with a 90%+ death rate. It is believed that the "black death" during the middle ages, that led to the dark ages was a form of this killer.
The last truly global pandemic took place from 1917 - 1921 during the "Spanish Influenza" outbreak, which attacked young adults, that suffered the highest death rate.
It is also believed that a deadly global pandemic occurs every 100-150 years. About due.
Most studies have shown that the more virulent and deadly the virus, the less likely it is to cause a pandemic episode. Ebola kills so fast, the victims do not have enough time to spread it.
This is why the flu virus has caused so many pandemic infections over history - it only kills 5%-10% of the population and it requires weeks to incubate in the victim. As a result they have time to spread the virus.
Fear not Ebola - fear bird flu!
How about stay healthy and not worry about things you can't control?
There's a lot more to this than you think.
ALL reputable epidemiology studies are concerned with MANY factors, not just crude "time to mortality". Propagation efficacy is also determined by the duration of asymptomatic (or functionally asymptomatic) infectivity ("infectious incubation period"), and the inoculum potential ("what's the miminum infective "dose" of your chosen pathogen").
Decreases in one may be offset by in decreases in the other too.
Remember also that time to symptom onset is dependent on immunocompetence too - those with suppressed immune systems may develop symptoms sooner, or later, than the general population.
A "worst case scenario" would be that of a novel pathogen (or recently adapted pathogen) entering a target population for the first time. No innate population immunity, but a longer than expected incubation period owing to adaptation mismatches (during the initial infection cycles) which translates to a longer "functionally infectious" interval.
Which is exactly what happened with the Spanish Flu pandemic (and to a lesser extent with the Hong Kong Flu pandemic later).
And is exactly what is happening now. New variant, never before seen in the Human population. so no innate immunity.
So much disinformation!!!
While Ebola is a very dangerous virus, it isn't airborne, so it's only contagious in settings with poor hygiene. Also, it is so deadly and develops so quickly that it tends to burn out rapidly. Ebola had nothing to do with the plague. It was caused by, err, THE PLAGUE, a bacteria transmitted by fleas.
What makes influenza so successful is that it spreads through the air, has a fairly long incubation period, and isn't so rapidly fatal that it's victims have a chance to spread it widely.
The last true global pandemic was in the 1960's - The Hong Kong Flu, a strain of H3N2. There is no cycle to pandemics, per se. The rate of disease emergence is dependent on changing population. More people, more chicken, more pigs, more strains of flu.
The pneumonic form of plague is airborne and highly contagious person to person. Once started, it no longer requires the insect vector. If not treated with antibiotics within 24 hours of the appearance of the symptoms the mortality rate is around 99.9%.
As is the mortality rate for pulmonary infection by Bacillus anthracis - another serious contender for the real cause of the "Black Death". Just as infectious as Yersinia pestis, and known to cause many of the symptoms and signs reported during the Black Death - signs (such as "blackening" of the blood) that Y. pestis does not produce, even in an overwhelming infection.
Unfortunately there is good evidence that the airborne route of transmission may be significant for Ebola transmission, e.g. - http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/337003 (and similar); also we don't actually know what the cause of the Black Death was. We used to be absolutely certain it was Yersinia pestis, but now there are a lot of people "out there" who are not so sure, e.g. http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/Routt.Black.Death and http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/30/science/30plague.html?_r=0 .
Was it a different organism? Bacillus anthracis? - maybe http://hnn.us/articles/10949.html, and http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/04/020415073417.htm
How about Ebola? Far fetched - but again maybe not so far fetched. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/3735943.stm, and http://www.livescience.com/15937-black-death-plague-debate.html and http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=117310&page=1#.UV0F31-4Z9A
The concerning thing is "can this happen again", and the answer is of course "yes" - especially with the continuing emergence of pan-resistant microbes. http://discovermagazine.com/2001/nov/featblack . With the speed (and popularity) of Intercontinental air transit things would get "very interesting, very quick" - http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/what-are-epidemics-pandemics-outbreaks
Ask the pigs that were floating down their rivers a few weeks ago....
Mmmmmm.........hmmmmmm!
I'm amazed McDonald's didn't step in and swoop up 'the other white meat' so they could have another McRibs advertising campaign.
So this is how the zombie apocolypse starts
sort of.
step 1.
your bank account and retirement are (conficated) bailed-in.
step 2.
you see people getting sick, protesting the legalized theft of their lifesavings.
step 3.
after waiting in line and receiving the limited-supply vaccine, you get sick.
step 4.
anyone left who hasent died via superflu, killed themself, or been droned is herded up and taken to Logans Run type cities where they make parts to support the war effort and await Carosel.
Good cover for Bio attack on China....plausible deniability is the way of Death Central.
4 cases=epidemic.
Pull the other one.
How many BILLION live in China?
pods
The suspicion is that there are far more than 4 cases in China, that they habitually cover up the truth, spread lies, and block sharing of information.
Sure, and there is always the chance that something will go pandemic.
But every year I am inundated with tales of great fear and warning about flu this, flu that.
You know what is a potent anti-viral? One that kicked the shit out of even H5N1?
Green Tea extract. Yep, EGCG. Good old catechins.
I have the results of the (confidential) study.
pods
that's right
that's the point. you need to line up and take your flu shot, vaccination, or whatever to make sure you're used to it when "they" need to inject something else into you to be a good and docile serf
I'm with you. By fear-laden projections in 2009, all of us should have died from H1N1 swine flu.
I'm more concerned about central bankers and our own government goons than I am about flus or tinpot N. Korean dictators.
Don't forget SARS.
Or the year where there where to be 20-odd hurricanes.
or the global cooling. Or the global warming.
Or the contrails. 1111!!!1111!!! THEY'LL KILL US ALL.
You stick to Green Tea.
I'll stick to the Ribavarin strategy . . . . . .
(Not licenced, but works. Without the resistance issues associated with the neuraminidase inhibitors. Add in an immunoregulant (e.g. Interferon alpha1) and you are improving your chances of survival, by suppressing the immune response - just like the elderlies (who as a cohort had a far better-than-average influenza survival in the Spanish Flu pandemic)
like america's 1:4 autism birth rates attributed to a fail-safe vaccination to keep the sheeple informed, healthy and homogenized without a pandemic-pandemonium-- as to not upsetting the propagandized pharma is an air-born tried, and tested eugenic program-- what really is at face value, nothing more than a trial ballon using humans a lab rats when the bio-wars begin?
We are talking about Chinese farms.
If "they" were developing something to cull the herd, they sure as hell ain't gonna be releasing it into the wild in China.
pods
i didn't mention the chinese...
Is there a Plum Island in China?
Yes its right off Orient Point.
another flue blbug.. in the last 7 years this has happened a few times
the paint the outlook is fine and well ... the results of last flue out break 10 folks in bangldesh sucumbed after being found floating in the citys gutter system
these openings are now in line for the new york bankers... karma is a tough task master
pfizer vaccination or flu shot; that's how
Looks like the biotechs/pharmas are hard at work testing viruses in China so they can magically come up with a pill/vaccine.
About 1.1B to test with, so I guess they'll never run out of specimens.
this new virus....
first...
your skin turns yellow...
than...
your eyes...
you can't keep your eyes fully open...
than...
your vocal coards...
you can't pronounce... the RRRRrrrrr anymore...
...
ROR!
Right Of Return?...
LOTFLRMAO!
Time to walk the plank matie.
As long as a bat doesn't eat half a cherry and then a pig eats the rest, we'll be ok. We know Gwyneth Paltrow is patient zero. So the solution is killing Gwyneth before she kills the rest of us.
Or we detain anyone on an international fight for 48 hours, to make sure they are clean of a virus.
Somehow, I think the government would have problem with the 48 detainment.
What sucks about a pandemic is that once they figure out that it is happening, most of us are already going to be dead. So that's good news, if this new bird flu was the next pandemic, people would be dropping dead everywhere and the pharmaceutical stocks would be going Bitcoin.
LET'S CHECK EVERYBODY'S WALLET WHEN THEY TRY TO BOARD A PLANE!!!
for viruses and stuff...
Anything to distract the news from economic collapse and looting by the .01%ers.
the gold and silverbugs?
Rivers awash with dead swine and fowl. Wash yer hands my hedgers!
Something smells fowl.
Hy ExWife came down with H1N3 and was hacking like a banshee last time I talked to her on the phone. I haven't heard from her since. No news is good news.
This is another "Liberal" hoax. Since evolution is a liberal hoax, then there is no way for these viruses to change themselves and become new strains. God created the virus, and it was good. How foolish can a liberal be to think a creature can simply change itself? Really, move on!
Another fine product of the American Education System.
+1 Jack. Your subtlety snares them every time.
Bird flu came and went. These super deadly strains kill their own hosts, end up competing with similar strains that leave the host alive, that is why we have not seen a serious pandemics. That sniffle you had over Christmas. That was most likely H1N1.
It was most likely a rhinovirus (or maybe a coronavirus) - i.e. one of the hundreds of viruses that cause "The Common Cold". Any "true" Influenza virus infection causes a LOT more than a "few minor sniffles". Even in non-Pandemic years, Influenza still kills plenty Worldwide - 250 to 500,000 annually.
Real Influenza (even variants to which you have some innate immunity) is a far from trivial infection.
As alluded to below...with mysterious dead pigs floating in rivers and birds that eat dead carcasses....who could have expected this?
Human capital controls. Do you hear the muppetmaster parrot? Distraction, long anal lube, Gangbang style. Soon over 1 billion youtube hits.
Time to trot out the next Get Your Flu Shot campaign
Nukes and Pandemic and NWO
I have to go to school
UN Washington and the WHO
What am I to do?
BitCoin Bitcoin buy more Bitcoin
Double click if no gateway
and it will get through.
My homeworks not done
Because of ZeroHedge
and I have to go to school
Black Chicken
There's no such thing as "viruses", all they are is endogenous cell decay caused by exposure to stress and inflammation, in the case of China I would say MSG, toxic air, toxic water, shit; toxic everything just about do the trick! Just more f@cking fear mongering along the lines of the N.Korea non story designed to get people worked up, ENOUGH of this shit!
I'm now 10 IQ points stupider thanks to reading this! What a moran!
I deal with this mindset every day - it pays our bills!!
Fortunately there are a lot of them around, so we have no real fear of not being able to meet our bills.
Unortunately they seem to have a reproductive advantage, which does not bode particularly well for a "Bright and Glorious Future".
Chinese: disgusting personal hygiene, infestation of the world via unchecked travel... What could possibly go wrong?
source for breaking news and straightforward information regarding outbreaks like this:
http://recombinomics.com/
Beware this website! He has been crying wolf for years! No one really looks at what he has to say anymore....
Agreed... over and over.
However, the information is there and it's usually way ahead of any media reports. I read it, make my own judgements on it.
I was in China during SARS. What a bunch of malarchy. There are more deaths per day from traffic accidents than from all forms of disease put together. Deaths from all these "killer viruses" is a rounding error considering the population size.