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Non-Manufacturing ISM Joins All Other Economic Misses, Prints At Lowest Since August, Biggest Miss In A Year

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Spot the common thread: Chicago PMI, manufacturing ISM, ADP and now Non-manufacturing ISM. If you said all big misses, give yourself a pat on the back. Because in the New Normal, the recovery apparently goes backward and downward especially when funded by what is now some $400 billion in QEternity. Despite expectations of a modest decline from 56.0 in February to just 55.5, the March Services ISM dropped to 54.4, the lowest since August, and the biggest miss in one year, with the critical New Orders components declining by 3.6 to 54.6, Employment down by 3.9 to 53.3 - the lowest since November, and Exports down 4 with imports up 5 surely doing miracles for GDP. Why the big miss? Three reasons: the post Sandy rebuilding effort is over; the abnormally strong winter seasonal adjustments have phased out and now is the time to pay the piper, and of course, the complete collapse in global trade as we have been hammering for the past year, now that Europe is in the worst depression since the 19th century. But don't worry: there is a POMO for that, and for everything else to give the impression that just because the Bad Bank formerly known as the Fed will onboard every piece of toxic garbage that is not nailed down, one can safely ignore reality for ever and ever.

Visually:

Table summary of the report:

For those who say no inflation:

Commodities Up in Price

Beef (4); Chicken Products (3); Crab Products; #1 Diesel Fuel* (3); #2 Diesel Fuel (3); Eggs; Food Products; Freight Costs; Fuel (3); Fuel Surcharges; Gasoline* (3); Gypsum Board; #2 Heating Fuel (2); Hotel Rates; Lumber — Pine and Treated (5); Natural Gas; Office Supplies; Pharmacy Products (4); Plywood; Produce; Roofing Products; Roofing Shingles; Transportation Costs; and Waste Disposal.

Commodities Down in Price

Cheese (3); #1 Diesel Fuel*; Gasoline*; and Soy Products.

Finally, the always entertaining respondents:

  • "The economy and our business appear to be improving." (Management of Companies & Support Services)
  • "Volumes are down slightly, but spending per person is up." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)
  • "Economy and all of our business units appear to be on track for positive gains this year. It may be a struggle, but economic indicators and signs of  business growth point to increased spending from our customers." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • "Local business climate seems more upbeat as the market moves higher." (Public Administration)
  • "Winter weather has affected construction, but the spring building season looks encouraging." (Wholesale Trade)
  • "Sales increased 17 percent last year; sales continue to rise this quarter." (Retail Trade)
    "Anticipate a plentiful season, requiring strategic planning with packaging inventories." (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)

Source: ISM

 


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Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Economic misses are good for the market: means more QE/POMO.  

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:04 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I note that crab prices are up.  Didn't we just get a report from the Feds about a surge in STDs?????????

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

good thing US is pivoting back to a manufacturing economy

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:03 | Link to Comment rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

And GOLD down again, what now for excuse? "Good Economy" numbers, Gold down "Bad Economy" numbers, Gold down. What would change that? North Korea nuke US? I mean, common! Market down slightly but everything what contains GOLD in it, getting f*cking Killed. Poor Miners, we are soon going to be approaching 2008 f* lows, while GOLD down just couple of bucks. This is insane.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:07 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

buy more.  No physical metal is changing hands at these prices.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment beentheredonethat
beentheredonethat's picture

need to pay taxes this month- no money for gold

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:17 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Can we be adults and use the word "depression" yet?

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

adult? is that what you think the average voter is?

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

"Depression" is so five minutes ago.  We're on to "bottomless pit".

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

dont be silly...

the recession ended in 2009...

50 million on food stamps...

WE'RE ROLLIN' BABY!!!!!!!!

disclaimer: i bought some more shiny on sale yesterday...

1964 Kennedy's look so pretty when you show'em respect....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wx_9MLbQD-0

 

 

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

QE not working. Need to double it, as Kocherlakota says.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

what's the point in economic data? it's all good news even if it's bad!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:20 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Spin MOAR faster CNBC! Not that it matters - everyday is a pomo day in April.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Ancona
Ancona's picture

Worse is better? I feel like George Costanza...

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment HD
Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment morning_glory
morning_glory's picture

Just remember ... It's not a lie, if you believe it.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:52 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Profound.  Root cause of so many ills in the world. 

What is Truth?  - Pontius Pilate

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

Clearly there is a need for several trillion more $ created from thin air. Clearly...paging dr. krugman paging dr. krugman...code blue

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Here a POMO, there a POMO, everywhere a POMO...
Ole Benanke had to print..
P..r..i...n..t.....

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

"Volumes are down slightly, but spending per person is up." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

 

That's excellent! I've always heard about making up for lack of volume by increased spending!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Ain't that called 'inflation'??

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Archetype
Archetype's picture

Just be a good muppet and Buy The Fucking Dip! Moar QE forever and everything will explode to outerspace and we will all live happily ever after. FUUUUCK!!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:29 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Seems to me the economy appears to be dead and looks putrid. I anticipate another hit of the shock paddles will turn things around.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment RussellB
RussellB's picture

From someone who lives within 20 mins of the Jersey Shore, the notion that the Sandy effect is over is misleading. There are still streets worth of homes destroyed just sitting there abandoned. Don't be surprised if it resurfaces as those who own beachfront properties as an investment come back from the Keys in the spring and start looking to rebuild. Many are just now getting insurance checks as well. Just my 2c

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment short screwed
short screwed's picture

if the BLS was put in charge of these numbers, we wouldn't have any of these annoying contractions. Forward!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It's snowing somewhere...that must be the reason for the bad numbers.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Your honor, I present this evidence http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html against Fed Chair Bernanke.

Order his arrest! This is unconstitutional to destroy the US currency. Arrest him !

 

 

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Roy T
Roy T's picture

This is perfect timing for the Administration to blame all the misses and economic ills on the sequester.  Next up, a rising unemployment rate and Krugman and Jay Carney cries of "See we told you so-we have gone through too much austerity already"  Blah, blah, blah

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:38 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

More US dollar debasing/QE, higher prices more taxes and fees to pay higher public worker costs.

That will work out well, NOT!

Rather than rigging the market, let's get out of this twilight zone and let the too big to fail, fail and defaults happen quickly.

Just like in the early 1920's. Otherwise it's Japan. Bernanke and the fed have been doing a Japan for the last 5 years.

Wait until Bernanke and the Fed have to deal with a US currency crisis.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:38 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Cramer says Bullish as he wipes Bernanke's jizm off his cheeks

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

insanely bullish

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

Bullish.  Good point to enter the equity markets.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I just read those exact words - came across the AP wire (from the WH courtesy of the Fed).  :D

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:44 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

To da moooooooon!

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 10:47 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I don't think they are going to be able to keep the illusion going thru this year.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

Centrally directly money flows into equities and away from commodities, particularly precious metals will continue unabated, fundamentals be damned.... this is now all politics driven. 

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

But the next GDP print will be +3.4% right?  CNBC said so.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:16 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

i dont know ANY small business owners who believe the economy is improving....holy propafuckinganda.....................

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

RE

"Local business climate seems more upbeat as the market moves higher." (Public Administration)

There really is a sucker born every minute.

i dont know ANY small business owners who believe the economy is improving....holy propafuckinganda

Well, I know a few - and they conclude business isn't dramatically IMPROVING.....but it's also (at this time) recognized as not dramatically getting WORSE.

In a sense, cuing from Bernanke: Americans "should just go and live their lives".  And they are, which shows the resiliency of the consumer, in esoteric terms.  People WANT things to be better. 

Too bad there's this thing called, "reality" that will, eventually settle in.

But looking at the economy through metrics and mathematical terms?  The shit is bad, and what is worse it's almost as if people are settling on miniscule changes and "not bad data/news is GREAT data/news" (instead of actual great data/news).

I can see why zombies are popular in culture during times like these (and the 1970s).

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 11:39 | Link to Comment kessguv
kessguv's picture

chances the lows are in for the day or the mkts will be higher than these levels at the end of the day just in case we dip [now that Europe is closed] ?

0%

95%

96%

99%

100%

course - think otherwise you are on crack,

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

 

BLS hacked.  For God’s sake, please don’t tell anybody outside of the ZH forum, but I hacked into the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) to find their secret statistic making methods.  In a file called “statistics production methods” I found the answers. They use, among many others:

 

Anthropomancy – the entrails of unemployed men are read to determine U6 figures.

 

They have a series of other methods to find other economic statistics. They include  Gastromancy (U3) , Gyromancy, Myomancy, Omphalomancy , Onychomancy, Tyromancy, Belomancy and Necromancy (401K stuff. You really do not want to know about the last one.....)

 

ZH readers can see the full report at:  http://tinyurl.com/cwm8e3s

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!