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Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Tyler Durden's picture





 

For the first time since 1981, the S&P 500 has rotated from up to down to up for 12 days in a row - adding 4 points in that time. 10Y Treasury yields have dropped 8 of those 12 days and closing today at 1.75% - their lowest of the year, the biggest 10-day drop in yields in five months - but stocks ignored that correlation. EURJPY was the story of the day as JPY weakened 4% against the USD from the BoJ news - but stocks ignored that correlation. Oil slumped once again on the day (-4% on the week) - but stocks ignored that correlation. Stocks in general oscillated intraday around VWAP (as we sense the algos have no confidence in their correlations) and real money awaits tomorrow's NFP debacle.

 

Today in the S&P -all the volume on the downswings and VWAP was your friend...

 

The last 12 days in the S&P 500...

 

and Treasuries...

 

for the biggest 10-day drop in 5 months...

 

with JPY being the story of the day...

 

as gold and silver stabilized but oil tumbled further...

 

HY credit and Treasuries were not buying this today at all as they closed at their lows (HY price and Treasury yield). Capital Context's SPY Arb model shows the disconnect began in earnest around 230ET...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 


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Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

the bed springs are squeaking

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

That's when you know you're getting screwed...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:26 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Well, if you're the man, that's when you know you're doing your job correctly....

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Oscillation beyond noise bitchez!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Even dumb-ass Algore said...

"Everything that should be down is up; everything that should be up is down."

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Looks like a freely traded market to me. Welp, I'm off to huff some more paint...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:42 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

FYI - there is no such thing as a bad news number tomorrow for equities, unless it is an UE rate of 6.5% or less, anything between 6.6% and 100% is uber bullish.

 

PS - it appears that Krugman and MDB have teamed up to see who can red arrow the fastest.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Up down, up down , up down, that's sounds like my wife and I all night long.

We sure have to pee a lot, but that's old age for you.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:18 | Link to Comment TheGermanGuy
TheGermanGuy's picture

It´s beautiful

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

That's what the dude said at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark right before faces started melting and heads began exploding.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

If you could annualize the EURJPY return today with $1MM @ 40x leverage, and do it for 18 days, then you would turn your $1MM into the combined GDP of the US and Europe, say $30Tn ... who knew trading could be so easy?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:20 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

Choppy markets ultimately decide a direction.  The question is which?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:35 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

choppy markets also cut off dicks

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:42 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

red arrow panty raid.........whoooppppeeeeeeeeee

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

its ok.. the fed is "off the deep end" http://hedge.ly/11jcOmb

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Mr. Miyagi paint the fence bitchez

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

 You forgot: Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

Indeed, hit BABA select start and you got 99 lives mafukka!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Devils Advocate
Devils Advocate's picture

I love Contra!!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

And that would mean that tomorrow is down...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:21 | Link to Comment ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

NFP will be awful tomorrow and before the open one of the mouths will open at the Fed saying QE will not end this summer and we will be up 150 at the open.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

 as i type Bloomberg is covering Bitcoin...thats how far gone this shit has become...

anyway, the only thing of note is the constant use of analogy referencing that which has been money for 5,000 years in trying to explaining Bitcoin mining....

u have got to be fucking kidding me...Bitcoin is real money??????? Mining Bitcoin is like mining for physical Gold?????????????

yeah, ok.....................................................................................................................

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment RacerX
RacerX's picture

It's new and shiny!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment Keyser-Soze
Keyser-Soze's picture

Doppelganger...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment One of We
One of We's picture

I guess the HFT's finally learned about alternating current.....

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wonder how much "hot" money has gone into U.S. Treasuries?

Maria Bartiromo just doesn't get it, she does not understand even after having it explained just now dead to rights.  Santelli and another analyst explained it to her in terms a five year old could understand, but her face was wrinkled in confusion.

Santelli basically said that money trapped in 401K's, IRA's, and Pensions is the captive money of the gamblers on Wall Street thanks to the FED and that it ends by them losing money, again, when this bubble is over.

She does not get it.  Reality cannot penetrate her delusions and faith in the rigged casino.  She's at the 777's machine but believes she is at the bank making a depsoit.

FOOLS.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:36 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I heard she has been whispering sweet nasty's for so long that her teeth are about to fall out. And when they don't, she smiles.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 17:02 | Link to Comment The Tao
The Tao's picture

When Maria and that stupid ugly b*%$& were arguing with Cox and Santelli this afternoon I nearly put the 8-iron I have laying around the office through the TV.  "It is what it is..." those two stupid coozes kept parroting.  Santelli just looked at the floor and shook his head.  "The Stock Market isn't real wealth," Cox said.  "Oh c'mon..."  Maria said.  My business partner had to restrain me as the Taylor Made 300 almost put a hole in Maria's big mouth -- not that anyone would notice.

Good lord.  I argue with my guys all the time to turn that stupid propaganda spewing station OFF!  "Wwwwak the economy is getting stronger...Wwwwwak, don't fight the Fed....Wwwwak buy the dips..."

Killin' me!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.

Here's the video; fucking classic.  A former Treasury Secretary comparing FED QE to drugs and a drug addiction.

Julia Coronado is an absolute clueless dingbat, and of course pumps for BNP Paribas, the harpy.

"It is what it is."  YEAH YOU DUMB BROADS, IT'S IMMORAL BUBBLE/COLLAPSE/WAR CREATING THEFT!!!!

God save us.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000159131

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment The Tao
The Tao's picture

.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment The Second Rule
The Second Rule's picture

Maria Fart-aroma has never gotten it. Ever. Back in the dotbomb days she was one of the primary cheerleaders. And when she got proved wrong, as in chained to the back of a pickup and dragged through an alley over broken glass WRONG, she just got up, dusted herself off and went right on cheerleading. Not a scratch. Never admitted any culpability for misleading investors on the part of that bullshit pump-n-dump alphabet-channel. Nothing. Maria is terminally stupid. That's why they keep her on the payroll. She doesn't even need to be told what to say by the show's producers. She does it completely on her own. A total fuckwit.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:27 | Link to Comment e m m
e m m's picture

My favorite was the Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar. As the Euro exploded upwards, the AUD fell to a new low on the week versus the NZD. This after a strong retail sales data which caused it to rally about 50 points in the Asian session. You know the world's currencies are in hands of sophisticated people and technologies.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:30 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

10Y yield after an equity plunge will be record-breaking. 

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 17:14 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

1% here we come.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

JGB's are at, what, 0.4%?  People assume our repeat of the "Japan situation" will happen at the same pace.  Wow are they ever going to be incorrect.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

BREAK DOWN BITCH!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:32 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Looks like the early stages of a distribution phase that could continue for as much as several more months (with increasing volatilty).  After that, back down she goes!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment centerline
centerline's picture

Distribution it seems, but I think weeks at most.  Modest correction and the big boys will start getting really long right before the EU goes ape shit.  Retail will panic and hand the shares over at a loss along the way.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:35 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

sell your gold and buy treasurys bitchez

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:38 | Link to Comment toros
toros's picture

Mhorrrr Qhewww Eheeee

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment hannah
hannah's picture

i pulled all my money out and am taking a cruise on a carnival ship.....

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:49 | Link to Comment bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

Bit optimistic hoping for "an accident" on one of those aren't we?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 16:50 | Link to Comment knicks3005
knicks3005's picture

Down, up, down, up, down up.....

 

FATALITY! BERNANK WINS!

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Not quite sure what the disconnect in the S&P was. Everything looked fine here.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2013/04/04/sp-7/

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 18:04 | Link to Comment 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

So... whats next? Ehm... down maybe?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment dlfield
dlfield's picture

Look at all the pretty colors...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 18:56 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Ben starts the printer.

Ben stops the printer.

Ben starts the printer.

Ben stops the printer.

Ben starts the printer.

Ben stops the printer.

Ben starts the printer.

Ben stops the printer.

Ben starts the printer.

Ben stops the printer.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 19:02 | Link to Comment SovereignSilver
SovereignSilver's picture

Markets gone trad Irish "reel". Just waiting for the "jig" to be up. Then we go down up down down up down down up down down...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 21:34 | Link to Comment MoneyChasingReturns
MoneyChasingReturns's picture

Without retail investors trading the advanced trading computer is getting bored, so decides to play alone.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 06:07 | Link to Comment Mitch Comestein
Mitch Comestein's picture

Tyler,  You need to add that on the periphery, the gold silver ratio has shot up markedly in that time.  It hit 58  yesterday.  It was under 53 on Feb. 4th+/-.  If that ratio breaks to the upside, breaking 60, there will be real trouble about to boil over.  This would correspond with lower still treasuries. 

Watch your powder!

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