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Overnight Sentiment: Central Banker Bonanza

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With all three major non-Fed central banks on the tape today, all economic data will be merely "noise" as the market digests what the central-planners' intentions are. The BOJ came and went, and following its substantial balance sheet expansion announcement, which many called "shocking and awing" the USDJPY has pushed higher by 2.5 big figures, although not reaching the 96 levels seen prior to Kuroda's actual announcement. In fact, from this point on there is likely downside as Japan's biggest export competitor, South Korea, has no choice but to join the race to debase which in turn will be JPY-positive. The Bank of England is next, which as expected did nothing moments ago, and will keep doing nothing until Carney joins officially this summer. In some 45 minutes, the ECB headlines will hit the tape where Draghi may bur more likely may not lower deposit rates, and instead will focus on recent deterioration in the economy. None of this will be surprising, and the EUR continues to trade sufficiently weak in line with sub-200DMA levels seen in the past few weeks. What we look forward to the most will be Draghi once again discussing the legal term-sheet details of the ECB's OMT program. His answer will be amusing as there still is no answer, and the OMT is for all intents and purposes the biggest straw man ever conceived by a central bank.

In actual economic news, we had the monthly Service PMIs out of Europe, which one again missed and declined at the headline level, dropping from 47.9 to 46.4, below expectations of 46.5. This time, unlike the Mfg PMIs earlier, it was the periphery that did better than expected (Spain 45.3, Exp. 44.7, 21st straight month of contraction; Italy 45.4, Exp. 43.5, Last 43.6) and the core that deteriorated (Germany 50.9, Exp. 51.6, Last 54.7; France 41.3, Exp. 41.9, Last 43.1). The only good news, if any, come from the UK, whose Service PMI rose from 51.8 to 52.4, above expectations of a drop to 51.5. Expect the UK economy to deteriorate substantially in the coming months in order to justify the massive QE that will be unleashed by the Goldmanite when he finally arrives.

SocGen summarizes the key events to watch out for today:

The currency market is positioned short EUR andd GBP going into today but could the announcements and knee-jerk reaction be hijacked by the announcement tomorrow of a surprise increase in the US unemployment rate? The ‘battle of the balance sheets' saw the BoJ announce bold plans to switch its policy focus to a doubling of the monetary base and upscale its asset purchase well above the previous Y101trn 2013-end target and this has vindicated JPY shorts who have been accumulating positions pretty much all year. USD/JPY rallied over 95.50 overnight and EUR/JPY motored back over 122.50. The BoJ move should extend the secular bear trend for the JPY even if doubts exist whether the 2% inflation target will be achieved.

The other side of the equation is that the Fed will stay a formidable force for at least a few months and by the looks of the last two ISM surveys, discussions about tapering asset purchases could soon move to the back burner. Declines in the non-manufacturing ISM employment index may not correlate perfectly with private sector payrolls growth but for a market that is overexposed USD long and short UST, the danger of squeeze is not negligible. Come in ECB (and BoE). There will never be enough time for president Draghi to answer all the questions today pertaining to future bank recovery and resolution, capital controls, bail-ins by bondholders and uninsured depositors, but let's hope he lets markets walk away with a transparent and clear message of where the ECB stands. Whether that's enough to comfort the minority of EUR bulls and force shorts to scramble is another question. Eurozone data released over the inter-meeting period has worsened, so more discussions of lower rates are likely to have taken place. Not ideal to get a rebound going unless the compression in rate spreads is led by the US. For EUR/USD, erasing a first significant hurdle at 1.2890 would be a first step.

DB's Jim Reid with the full overnight recap:

After months of so-called “verbal intervention” from PM Abe and various Japanese officials, the BoJ has decided to expand asset purchases to JPY7 trillion/month, above expectations (Bloomberg) of around JPY5 trillion. The decision, which was announced as we went to print, will see the BoJ target a
doubling of the monetary base to JPY270trillion by the end of 2014. The BoJ intends to double the average remaining maturity of JGB purchases (including purchases of 40yr bonds) to seven years and asset purchases will include ETFs and J-REITs. The central bank has set a two year target of achieving its 2%
inflation target. The enlarged asset purchase program was approved by unanimous vote. In terms of qualitative actions, the BoJ has temporarily suspended the “bank note rule”. The market reaction following the announcement has seen USDJPY yen up 1%, 10yr JGB yields rally 5bp to 0.49% (the lowest since 2003) while the Nikkei has pared back earlier losses of -1.6% to trade at -0.4% on the day.

In a big central bank day, after Japan, focus will move to the ECB's meeting. Our European economists expect no change in the policy stance from the ECB though they do acknowledge that the risk of a refi rate cut has risen. Draghi’s post-ECB press conference may be of more interest where our economists expect a tough line of questioning around the ECB’s handling of the Cypriot crisis. The expectation is that Draghi will try to keep his comments very generic on this matter apart from repeating Benoit Coeuré’s statement that Cyprus is not a “template” for the future management of banking crises in Europe, distancing the central bank from the Eurogroup’s recent comments.

Our economists expect Draghi to have stronger words to say about capital controls. The ECB logically should consider that capital controls are ultimately
a sovereign decision by Cyprus itself, but also that the ECB is ready to provide the liquidity that could be needed should these capital controls be removed. Draghi may also have some words to say about the flow of credit to the business sector, especially SMEs. Indeed there has been some talk over the last couple of days suggesting that the ECB collateral rules may be eased to reduce borrowing costs for medium sized companies.

Whilst the ECB is clearly the main focus today, US data flow was a key driver for markets yesterday. We kicked off the New York session with a disappointing ADP Employment print (+158k v +200k) which was followed by another softer-than-expected non-manufacturing release from the ISM (54.4 v 55.5). DB's Joe LaVorgna has trimmed down his NFP forecast on the back of this. The unusually cold weather in March may have dampened building and hiring activity with DB now looking for a 160k headline print for tomorrow, down from an earlier forecast of 200k. The median Bloomberg estimate remains around 195k, but more recent estimates compiled over the last 12 to 18 hours have been in the 160k to 180k range.

The ADP miss yesterday was its first in 6 months but we also observed that March has seasonally been a weaker month for ADP relative to market consensus. Indeed the ADP has fallen short relative to estimates 6 out of the 7 March months, which is also the most out of all months since Bloomberg polling started in August 2006. In comparison Novembers and Decembers had historically been better months with the series having only missed once in the last 7 years - and both of those happened in 2008 after Lehman.

US data is clearly interesting to watch from now on as the market will perhaps  start pointing to the fact that if data momentum continues to slip it would be the fourth successive year that data has surprised on the downside at this time of the year. Indeed the seasonal pattern in US data had been fairly consistent in the last three years where we usually see data beats in the final quarter of the year before momentum starts to weaken in Spring.

Coming back to yesterday’s markets, both the Stoxx600 (-0.9%) and the S&P500 (-1.1%) recorded their 4th worst days of the year. Weakness was broad based, all industry sectors closed lower across both indices with weakness in financials leading the losses on both sides of the Atlantic. 10yr UST yields closed 5bp firmer at 1.81% and are another 1bp lower overnight. Despite the widespread concern about rising rates, 10yr UST yields are back at their opening levels of the year. Gold (-1.14%) continued its downward trend, trading through the $1550/oz level overnight after breaking through the $1570/oz level yesterday.

Given the weakness in equities, credit markets outperformed yesterday with the European Main index managing to close broadly unchanged on the day. The European senior and subordinated financial indices which closed both closed around 5bp tighter, continuing the reversal of some of its recent underperformance. This was in spite of Euro banking stocks (-1.8%) being one of the worst performing sectors on the Stoxx600 yesterday. The US IG index closed a touch wider (0.5bp), a surprisingly firm performance given the 16pt drop in the S&P 500.

With the recent focus on global QE and potential competitive devaluations, it’s interesting to see the resurgent interest in Bitcoin, a virtual currency. The FT reported yesterday that the events in Cyprus have led to a “buying frenzy” which has sent the value of Bitcoin’s monetary base to $1.5bn, while the price of the single Bitcoin has doubled in less than two weeks. The currency was created 4 years ago by an unknown computer scientist and the stock of “coins” grows according to a predetermined algorithm. Proponents of Bitcoin note that it is not controlled by any central bank or government authority.

Turning to Asia, outside of the BoJ, the focus is on North Korea as tensions on the Korean peninsula continue to escalate. The North Korean army has reportedly been granted “final approval” to launch a nuclear attack and the South Korean Yonhap news agency reports that North Korean forces have been spotted in the process of moving a long-range missile by train towards the Sea of Japan. The United States said on Wednesday it would soon send a missile defense system to Guam to defend it from North Korea, as the US military responds to what US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has called a "real and clear danger". In terms of market reaction, the KOSPI (-1.3%) is poised to close lower for fourth consecutive session and the Won is 0.5% weaker against the dollar.

Markets elsewhere in Asia have been relatively quiet with Hong Kong, Taiwan and mainland China closed for holidays. Asian credit markets are trading marginally wider off the Korean headlines.

In terms of the day ahead, attention will be focused squarely on the ECB meeting at 12:45pm London time. Draghi’s press conference follows 45 minutes later. The BoE announcement is due at midday. US weekly jobless claims and European services PMIs are the main data points of note

 

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Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:10 | 3407243 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"as the market digests what the central-planners' intentions are"

~~~

Ha Ha!... That was funny... Thursday humor in the early morning... Just what I needed...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:27 | 3407263 Doña K
Doña K's picture

If the central banks need to hit target inflation, they should distribute coupons with various expiration dates to all the families and the money will be spent before expiration thus creating forced inflation, rather than give the newly printed money to the dealers

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:30 | 3407268 HD
HD's picture

Families?! Now how would that help the 1%?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:39 | 3407280 Doña K
Doña K's picture

I hear you. I was hoping for a fishing boat to feed the family

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:44 | 3407288 Scarlett
Scarlett's picture

beware of borders: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss_news/Border_checks_strike_gold.html?ci...

 

Italian finance police had a lucky find on Easter Sunday during a routine check of a family car crossing into Switzerland: they discovered gold ingots worth about €4.5 million (CHF5.5 million) concealed in false compartments.

The car was driven by a 53-year-old Italian resident of the Swiss canton of Ticino, described by the police as the legal representative of a Swiss company.
 
He was travelling with his wife and three children, apparently going for an Easter trip.
 
The police decided to examine the car more thoroughly when they saw how nervous the family looked. They found 12 gold bars wrapped up in newspaper hidden under the seats.
 
The driver “was unable to provide an explanation or to show a legitimate source for this large quantity of precious metal”, the police in Ponte Chiasso said. He and his wife gave “evasive answers”.
 
The man was immediately charged with money laundering. The ingots and the car were seized. Investigations are continuing into the source and destination of the gold.
 
There has been an upsurge in the smuggling of gold from Italy to Switzerland in the past few months since the Italian authorities launched a campaign against tax evasion and money laundering.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:54 | 3407300 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Why the hell would anyone try to leave the country with a barbaric relic?

 

Why wouldn't you smuggle fiat like normal people?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:36 | 3407403 e-recep
e-recep's picture

and why all at once???

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:28 | 3407266 Meme Iamfurst
Meme Iamfurst's picture

 

seems the intentions are to eventually be competative with Zimbabwai and have a even exchange rate.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:35 | 3407274 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Global QE5 has already started with Japan being first.  I expect some jaw boning of the USD.  They already prepped gold.  They don't really have a choice.  They have to get money into the banks.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:57 | 3407303 HD
HD's picture

You've been bullish (and right). Still bullish S&P?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:36 | 3407278 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It's no joke there Mr. Sawyer, Huck just bought car that drives like a plane.  

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:48 | 3407291 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

With 'Goodnight' in the boot...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:15 | 3407248 new game
new game's picture

zig to zag / are we there yet?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:38 | 3407281 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Nothing on the street looks any different to me as far as the law is concerned.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:36 | 3407276 London Banker
London Banker's picture

What surprised me overnight was the softness of the market's reaction outside Japan.  Copper hardly bounced, even after yesterday's dramatic fall.  Events in Cyprus will not be quickly forgotten.  I wonder if liquidity is tightening dramatically behind the scenes, with some quiet margin calls in the sec lending and repo space muting the market's potential reaction to news.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:40 | 3407283 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

Gold is dropping like a rock while bankers and governments are printing more than ever. Why is that?

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:20 | 3407328 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

What do you think they're doing with all that printed money? It's not like they're having to spend their money....they'll send you the bill. They're buying gold while they're putting your kids into debt.

 

It's like the ultimate game of chicken.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:41 | 3407285 WaEver
WaEver's picture

too bad central banks never tried this solution to eradicate worldwide poverty and famine....or am I missing something     nah   the msm are telling us this is all fine so no need to worry   let's go back to sleep

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:47 | 3407292 q99x2
q99x2's picture

"as Japan's biggest export competitor, South Korea is" annihilated.

And when the Fk do the BitCoin ATMs arrive in Cyprus? 

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 07:48 | 3407293 Falconsixone
Falconsixone's picture

Seems like just yesterday people were talking about bath partys and wanting to roll something.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 09:04 | 3407487 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now I know they are here to stay. Oh, You still believe in yesterday.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:12 | 3407297 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

and the OMT is for all intents and purposes the biggest straw man ever conceived by a central bank

I see a Banzai creation to be submitted as the official mascot for the OMT to help educate people.

Edit: Maybe a theme song will help... "I could while away the hours/discussing all the powers/ of the O M T"

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:20 | 3407321 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

so there we have it...central banks are still full tilt in the "race to debase".

the Hong Kong Government Exchange Fund in Ice House Street (Monetary Authority, not a central bank) succesfully supported equity markets in 1998 by buying local equities when the Hang Seng was c. 8,000 (v c. 22,000 today)

there is a major difference between a small open economy centred on a major trading nation and that of Japan, which is racist, aging and broke.

my bet is that this is the straw that breaks the camels back in Japan. the central bank is monetizing the economy in such a way that it is mimicking Zimbabwe and its wish to lift inflation to 2% will not only be successful, but will overshoot 2% by a staggeringly high figure. i am thinking 6-8% inflation in just one year as VAT increases, massive healthy food shortages from Fukushima effects and a 25% currency devaluation kick in. japan will run persistent trade deficits from here on in. China and the Asian Tigers will eat Japans lunch on competitive devaluations (aka asia currency wars). 

Japan cannot compete on price alone and it has been displaced as a thought leader for Asia, producing goods that have an increasingly inferior relative quality.

As far as the impact of this increase in QE and its direction towards ETF's and REIT's this will provide a bid to global equity markets as sellers to the BoJ become buyers of non-Japan assets.

This is a "sophisticated" tax on capital  Inflation at either the target 2% (or my guesstimate of 6-8%) in a year, with ten year JGB rates at close to just 0.5% implies a capital loss of 1.5% (or 5.5 to 7.5%) per annum.

Japan has engaged in its last hurrah and will successfully complete its journey into an economic and irradiated wasteland in just a few short years.

So there!

I am spartacus

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 09:07 | 3407497 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The japs are savers, we are debters, ergo spartacus, we are the Unforgivable Sinners of today.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 09:47 | 3407650 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

japan demographic says that japanese are drawing down their savings to live off in ever increasing numbers (a new cohort of 2.5% of the population starts drawing down 5% of their savings..this year another 2.5%, next year another 2.5% for the next twenty years, meaning at over the years.a peak of 50% of .japanese will be dissaveng (spending) 5% of their capital.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 10:05 | 3407746 negative rates
negative rates's picture

If you only HAD 20 years, and that's still better than borrowing that same amt to live day to day as most of our citizens are doing.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 10:54 | 3407970 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

yes..its baffling why any government would choose to transfer production of value from the private sector into the production of benefits in the public sector and then use a central bank as an agent to monetize the losses...

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 10:57 | 3407994 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

by the way..i ahve no debts, pay no taxes and receive no benefits :>)

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:23 | 3407373 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Isnt there a biblical reference about a Jaw-bone of an ass? Lot's of them out there these days too.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:23 | 3407374 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

its amazing how this fucking market does not move on any sort of economic news but only easing easing and more easing.

 

how the fuck the nikkei went from down as much as 235 overnight to finish up 230 plus is just so comical, all because some douchebag says he will print lots of money.

 

this is why i can not get excited about yesterdays red day. as happy as i was, and trust me i enjoyed it, i, as i am sure many here knew too well that these fuckers would do everything they can to ensure we erase those losses from yesterday and then some.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 08:58 | 3407469 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

I am just wondering if the Chinese will dump some of those JGBs and buy some more gold. I mean the JGBs are going to be worhtless...and gold won't be.

That seems to be a good idea.

Thu, 04/04/2013 - 09:43 | 3407635 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

japan will be paying for those 600 chinese dead pigs with US treasuries before this is over

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