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How Today's Non-Farm Payroll Release Looked To An Algo

Tyler Durden's picture


Courtesy of Nanex, here are several depth of market charts showing how today's NFP number looked like through the eyes of the kneejerk response algos, and how quantized, sub-millisecond jumps in the "market" appear like in a day and age when virtually all the trading done is that by robots. And, oh yes, a statistically "noisy" number, such as today's jobs which is entirely lost in the seasonal adjustment, just somehow manages to wipe out all the market liquidity for what to a robot is an eternity. What happens when the shock is not just statistical noise?

1. eMini futures (ES) Depth of Book during scheduled Employment Situation news release.

2. Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) Depth of Book during scheduled Employment Situation news release.

3. Gold futures (GC) Depth of Book during scheduled Employment Situation news release.

4. Crude Oil futures (CL) Depth of Book during scheduled Employment Situation news release.


5. Finally, US jobs matter... In the Netherlands. Dutch AEX Index futures (FTI) Depth of Book during scheduled Employment Situation news release.


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Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:29 | 3415134 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Are you sure the algos were only jerking their knees?

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 09:41 | 3415871 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I was there....those algos were seriously freakin out man.


Can't blame them.....they just weren't programmed for that crap.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 14:09 | 3416525 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Curious how the liquidity disappears before the 8:30 announcement. The algos must be psychic.

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 09:10 | 3418186 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

There's nothing wierd about book depth decreasing to virtually nil before major econ announcements such as NFP or rate decisions. Algos psychic? Hardly. The fact that liquidity dries up in fact proves that nobody (besides the lucky few i guess one can argue...) knows what the number will be, thereby removing all bids and offers in the book. If the algos knew the jobs number was a big beat or a big miss, they would quickly jump to one side of the book in order to capitalize on the insider info.

While this post certainly proves liquidity is horrendous moments before a major data point, it hardly shows anything to blame the algos on, besides the fact that they are only liquidity providers when they choose to be. Every trader on the floor pulls their orders too lest they get fucked on a major point of inflection such as a big unforseen print, like last Friday.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:29 | 3415137 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what happens when that japanese bond market opens Sunday. That's what I want to know.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:41 | 3415178 Cdad
Cdad's picture

What happens...Kuroda issues a great big "kidding"?  Maybe he makes a paper mache patch?  Perhaps, he announces that the public MUST buy with him, and doubles down on what caused the crash to being with [that thing being blinding monetary stupidity]?  Or maybe the thing just crashes...and rates double again every 5 fanta seconds?  I know, he simply closes the market.......again?  

How long have JGBs been increasing in price now...20 years?


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:52 | 3415200 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Fonz, every single (duration) of debt will be purchased.  usd/jpy 100 and beyond. Hedge accordingly<

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:08 | 3415233 newengland
newengland's picture

When a country has the means to print digitally or manually, it is only a matter of whether politicians buying votes choose to do so, and the usurious globalist central bank cartel will oblige.

QE to infinity, as most people do not understand how that will ruin them.

No honor among thieves in .gov and commercial banks.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 00:17 | 3415478 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Yes - but it doesn't matter - the JGB and Fed will directly or indirectly buy the stock indexes.....problem solved ....all is well.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:31 | 3415143 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

WTF is going on w/ NG? is this a POMO thing to keep the price from cratering and associated NG jobs that will be lost.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:58 | 3415188 Lore
Lore's picture

Bakken production is nearing the end of a plateau and about to drop off a cliff.  All those hundreds of new wells are turning out not to be the cornucopia that Americans were promised during the election. The main beneficiaries of 75% price suppression were drilling companies and cronies of Dick Cheney.  As usual, the trail left behind is one of environmental devastation and industry in disarray. Natural gas is going to get a LOT more expensive, manipulation (corruption) and currency debasement notwithstanding. I talk with people in the Canadian oil and gas industry. They're ramping up to go after deep fields missed during the last boom back in the 80s -- just waiting for the price to go back up to a level where new wells are economical. 

Naturally, the God-Complex "green" goofballs will try to stop the market from working. Whether they succeed in driving prices cosmic is up to you. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:15 | 3415251 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

inflation, in addition to the supply idiosyncrasies. 

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 00:56 | 3415527 Lore
Lore's picture

That's what I said.

I wonder why people score me negatively. i can back up everything in the paragraph with scary evidence.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 08:17 | 3415798 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Nobody comes here to agree with you.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 09:27 | 3415860 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

To respond negatively to your post would create a troll paradox.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 09:58 | 3415874 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Post  responsibly.....only you can avert a paradox.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 09:55 | 3415887 akarc
akarc's picture

I gave ya some ups cause yer right. Both the Navy and the air force recognized this years ago and have made a push towards alternative fuels. Google it. My brother in law a retired naval captain (made is chops at sea duty and an assignment to USSR) who now works for a contractor spends his time evaluating new ship designs and their abilitiy to convert to alternative fuels when needed. Many retrofits going on. 

Shale returns are not predictable. Drilling becomes increasingly expensive. The amount of water used isnt justifiable.

Of course all this can be solved and boo coo jobs created with a national shift to Natural gas. But of course we prefer just burning it off rather than use it.

Or exporting it to other countries. 

Oh yeah we do have ethanol which of course can be produced more cheaply by Brazil at less risk to our own food source. But then why use them we can just destroy our own country.

Would this be where Stossel says, "Give me a break!"


Sat, 04/06/2013 - 15:13 | 3416689 bottomdrawer
bottomdrawer's picture

Go back to bed with Al Gore please....or at least the backseat of his hybrid.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:37 | 3415165 newengland
newengland's picture


It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity, said Albert Einstein.

He also said that there would be a world of idiots if technology ruled.

He is a genius. Look and learn.

Is a genius because you cannot kill an idea, an ideal, truth.


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:38 | 3415290 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

The man had humility...

in the context of progress and profits, too, that's the holy grail...

and the only thing that keeps it all from crashing down.


Sat, 04/06/2013 - 00:13 | 3415475 W74
W74's picture


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:39 | 3415174 mendigo
mendigo's picture

But I think maybe Tyler is turned-on by steep declines.
Steep or gradual it gets the job done.
Its like a seismic chart.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:57 | 3415209 AlaricBalth
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Nanex's charts remind me of Joan Miro's experimental art pieces. Surreal and sublime, each tells quite a story.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:41 | 3415307 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Looks more to me like the work of Paul Klee --  that is, if he were accidentally electrocuted while working with day-glo paints.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:20 | 3415373 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

+1 Very Good.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 05:37 | 3415689 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Looks more like the goddamned Lawnmower Man on purple microdot...

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 12:10 | 3416232 fuu
fuu's picture

That does not sound like a fun afternoon really.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:42 | 3415179 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Flashes of light.  Not so much?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:50 | 3415195 newengland
newengland's picture


We are fortunate. No surrender to robots. The payroll number ruins many,, yet DC and Wall St Parties on.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:01 | 3415225 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     newengland If you say so. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:10 | 3415239 newengland
newengland's picture

or know so :-)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:24 | 3415268 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Short gbp/usd .  newengland   The timing is your, responsibility.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:57 | 3415442 newengland
newengland's picture

Ta for the tip, Yen.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 01:02 | 3415532 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 next tuesday/

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:44 | 3415186 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Unemployment report in Canada was awful.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:46 | 3415192 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Courtesy of Nanex, here are several depth of market charts showing how today's NFP number looked like through the eyes of the kneejerk response algos, and how quantized, sub-millisecond jumps in the "market" appear like in a day and age when virtually all the trading done is that by robots."...

...having been built & programmed by certified schizophrenics.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:52 | 3415202 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture


Sat, 04/06/2013 - 01:05 | 3415213 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 nmewn knows what he's talking about.   I'm not trying to put you down in any way.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 03:45 | 3415637 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:50 | 3415198 One of We
One of We's picture

Valuation of equities by any traditional means is passe. The modern stock market is driven by algorythms "living" on high performance hardware and as close to light-speed bandwidth as possible. The industrial revolution is followed by the knowledge revolution and the "geeks" prepare the algo's in their caludrons that the dinosaurs are chasing....Word to the wise (and smart) switch from finance major to math or computer science....

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:53 | 3415203 One of We
One of We's picture

Actualy should've said "word to the sheep" instead of "word to the wise."  Pretty sure the wise have already packed up their family, food, guns & ammo and headed to the hills.......

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:59 | 3415214 newengland
newengland's picture

The wise tend sheep. Life is a team effort. One for all. All for one.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:54 | 3415206 newengland
newengland's picture

Word to the wise:the BIS is aware of your shenanigans. Never underestimate old ways.

Nanex exposes the robots, the Brave New World of moneygrubbing sociopathic cheats.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 10:44 | 3415965 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Old tricks are the best tricks...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 21:57 | 3415205 digalert
digalert's picture

Love those NANEX charts.

P.S. I noticed ZH top headline on Drudge today. +1 keep up the good work.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 22:45 | 3415312 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

I wonder how Brigitte Bardot, circa 1955, would look to an algo . . .

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 07:08 | 3415754 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture


Sat, 04/06/2013 - 07:54 | 3415784 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Yes, that's just what I'd expect -- a hexidecimal cat call, in French.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:07 | 3415342 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Good to know skilled people are in charge

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:07 | 3415344 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You must learn the mystery in the silence beween the words Luke.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:25 | 3415385 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Lets all get some "shut eye"  and regroup in a few hours.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 00:04 | 3415453 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

It is tradeable............. figure it out.............

Learn how to play their game is the only way............ they have all the power and the money....................

We gotta learn how to deal with it and use it to our

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 00:07 | 3415461 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

I don't know when the country is going to wake up and realize that we can't base an economy on intangibles only with over valuated algorithms in every business.  Small businesses, consumers, don't stand a chance and we are being driven off the cliff. Medical device outsourcing is soaring and we are losing jobs.

Look at all the data insurance companies collect and they need half of what they spend here to underwrite?  Do they need every detail about us to include buying our Master card and Visa consumer spending records?  One company Blue Cross said they were looking to see if a consumer started buying clothes one size larger to circumvent obesity...give me a break...this is obsession and addiction to data and searching for non linear information that's just not there, more fiction than anything on some of this.  Half of all analytics investments will be a waste as the data scientists themselves don't know what they are doing and now have this liitle code of ethics so they can keep their jobs and not have to write extremely dirty code.

If this code of ethics doesn't convince you there's dirty code out there I don't know what else can. 

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 07:20 | 3415762 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

MQ, some companies are now monitoring how often you mow your lawn and how many HOA violations you have received and sell that data to consumer credit agencies and insurance companies.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 05:01 | 3415675 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

What these charts actually show is that the Market is wise to the actions of nano-second HFT.

If there is little or no liquidity on the book at the instant news is released then the size of the arbitrage opportunity of being first to react to the new information is DRAMATICALLY reduced.

HFT can only make money by being super fast with news IF there is liquidity on the book for the HFT to purchase or sell.

No Liquidity = No opportunity for first to react.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 08:20 | 3415793 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

interesting observation

when the number was about to be released, the order books of ABN amro turbos (leveraged derivatives, e.g. on AEX, cf. fourth chart) were EMPTY! If you were in a long or short position, you couldn't even get out if you wanted...

While seconds before the release, the ask and bid still offered 200,000 on both sides, the custom volume provided by the market maker (issuing bank or turbo designer?).

Now, interestingly, the basic data for valuing these hundreds of different turbos seems to be provided by Goldman Sachs. Either they or the issuing bank (ABN Amro in this case, but could also have happened in RBS turbos and BNP Paribas turbos, Commerzbank Speeders) decided to stop providing liquidity for several seconds, until the market reaction was fully apparent, perhaps giving HFT time to recalculate.

I keep wondering how much of the trading data on transactions in these turbos and other derivatives instantly is being fed back to Goldman Sachs as well - this is insider information, per definition. A continuous instant gauging of market sentiment.

And if they get instant feedback on all long or short positions on indices, commodities, currencies, etc taken by ordinary market participants, they can easily trade against it, induce short squeezes or fake drops. This may hide a possible linkage also with proprietary or associated HFT activities...

Market manipulating software, anyone?

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 08:29 | 3415807 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

But the fact remains that with a very thin book at the instant of release there is not much money to be made from the imminent volatility expansion.

Even if you could freeze time and take all of the liquidity available, you would not take it all. You still need to quantify what you expect the arrival rate to be at t=t+1 so that you acquire the correct amount of liquidity and reinject it as limit orders at the correct price so that you can exit the position fully before more unknown variables swarm out your advantage.

The truth is that there isn't as much money in "knee jerk HFT" as there was 10 years ago and there certainly isn't as much money in it as everyone thinks there is. These NANEX charts prove it.

The Market is wise to it, and so the Market starves "knee jerk HFT" of it's necessary liquidity.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 09:42 | 3415875 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

It sounds like what you're saying is the cost of HFT to other market participants now exceeds the benefit to HFT perps. I couldn't agree more.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 12:06 | 3416217 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

i would argue that it were HFT that removed liquidity, for as long as was needed to gauge the market response to the jobs data, so they could adjust their algo strategies

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 10:52 | 3415989 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

If most of the volume is algo volume it would account for the intense swings in the charts no? Am I stating the obvious? The FED, Goldman, etc is the market right? Are the small firms getting any bones or is it mute at this point?

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 07:11 | 3415755 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Can you hear me now,...Motherfucker?"

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 07:32 | 3415769 Fruitcake
Fruitcake's picture

Those algo's look like my trousers when I heard the NFP news.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 09:43 | 3415870 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

In less time than it takes an eTrade baby (or any Muppet for that matter) to blink, burp, fart, or shit his pants, the markets will come to an end.


Sat, 04/06/2013 - 10:06 | 3415901 Michelle
Michelle's picture

Interesting that ZH presents four charts and one of those four just happens to be the FTI. What does the FTI have to do with the others? Anybody? I always love how the MSM is dissed and deservedly so, but it's sad to see that it happens here, too.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 11:04 | 3416037 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

That's the whole point. It SHOULD have nothing in common. And yet it does. Thank the global coordinated algorithmic systems who trade isolated news on a global basis, completely dislocated from logic or reason.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 13:13 | 3416292 Michelle
Michelle's picture

And my point is ZH should be aware of WHY it happened, yet no explanation, only charts.  In other words, sheeple, connect the dots.

The TRUTH is ignored, again.

DUTCH BANK CDS auction last week, that's the TRUTH!  Yet is ignored and never mentioned by any media, any person, anywhere, AGAIN!

Tyler, if you want this trainwreck to happen sooner than later, why not report this info and encourage more traders to jump on the bandwagon ahead of these events?

It appears that the ISDA schedules these auctions to coordinate with certain potentially negative USA-centric events, i.e. Non-Farm Payrolls so the auction goes undetected. Brilliant, they duped you, too.



Sat, 04/06/2013 - 13:18 | 3416420 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

what's the link between these CDS auctions, the response of FTI-AEX Futures, Nasdaq, S&P, gold and the release of the US jobs data?

The charts were provided by Nanex, and there are probably many more that show identical responses in market liquidity contraction right around the release of the jobs data

please enlighten us, because I fail to see the relationship with these CDS auctions of dutch banks

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 13:43 | 3416469 Michelle
Michelle's picture

It has everything to do with who makes up the members of the ISDA, their ability to front-run events via algos, and take advantage of a lack of liquidity due to cash settlements. I've been watching these auctions for years and believe me, there IS a correlation.

If anybody can come up with a better explanation then have at it.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 21:07 | 3417561 nanex
nanex's picture

We just happened to have FTI running in one of our capture charts at the time (because of an event a few hours earlier), so it was just a coincidence we added it. But, as Tyler points out, it is more than curious that a Dutch index would be so intertwined with that news release. This same phenomenon happens in dozens of other instruments.


BTW, I'm assuming no one is reading this, so I just throw this out: the vampire squid rang the nanex a few months ago and asked about using the same charting app, after seeing

We told them we don't look good in orange.


Sun, 04/07/2013 - 09:16 | 3418195 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

 This same phenomenon happens in dozens of other instruments.


Yes, indeed it does. Therefore, i would propose it doesn't make this as curious as one would have your post make them believe. NFP is the biggest bit of macro news barring a rate cut announcement for the markets. You can pull up Aussie equities, to EM credit, Brazilian rates, gold (as you showed)... market participants pull their orders based on something unexpected which can occur, as this past jobs report showed. 

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 10:07 | 3418255 nanex
nanex's picture



Mon, 04/08/2013 - 04:53 | 3421036 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

"BTW, I'm assuming no one is reading this"

I wouldn't be too sure about that - over 17,000 views... probably more than half may be carbon-based with at least two arms and a head

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 05:54 | 3418052 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

ZH is one if the only sites that covers the insane correlations that govern markets today. Correlations that are exacerbated by ETFs and are both intra market and inter market across national boundaries.

Free markets set prices for individual issues based on the merits of the individual issue. Correlation is therefore a sound metric for broken / manipulated markets.

I expect price fixing in centrally-planned basket-case economies, not in Ameri.....oh wait.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 19:50 | 3417375 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

These are great charts from Nanex. Sometimes the charts can be a little opaque but these are crystal clear. Thanks fellas!

More evidence that the book is a lie (I know it all too well from trading, but here you get to see the lie in action).

The book can look deep and fat but it's always a lie, ready to evaporate into the ether at the first sign of a fast market. Years ago it used to be possible to draw confidence in a position based on the structure of the book, back in the days when humans invested and chose price levels based on fundamental analysis. But now it's just all about latency with prices meaning nothing at all and it's impossible to count on support from determined orders in the book (bar the melt-up bias from bots front-running superannuation funds and Fed induced net buying). All the (smart) organic life has bowed out as it realized silicon parasites were feeding off it. Those with the expertise have chosen assimilation, those without have resigned to their fate.

More gore from Nanex for those of us who love a good market structure horror flick. Love it.

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 21:17 | 3417586 nanex
nanex's picture

You are spot on.


It's even worse. The algos have become quite sophisticated at hiding their orders - they will place multiple, seemingly odd order sizes in the book at various prices, and then randomly cancel and replace with new prices and sizes. The sum of these sizes will consistently be the same number or multiple of that number.

For example, in the current eMini, if you add up the sizes of orders placed over short time frames, you'll find they always add up to the same number or multiples of that number. So the sum of contracts for groups of 5-13 orders will always add up to 252 (and there will be hundreds of permutations of this, all adding to 252). There are also groups of numbers that add to 504 (2x252) and groups that add to 756 (3x252). Very, very rarely, do *any* of these orders result in execution. 

Sophisticated manipulation. (Yes, the CFTC knows all about this).



Sun, 04/07/2013 - 05:36 | 3418041 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Well that comes as no surprise...

Before Island ECN came along, I rarely saw these bizarre order sizes that rapidly bounced around in the book. What human trades 17 shares in a penny stock? Fast forward to today and it's everywhere.

I never analysed it in depth the way you guys do, but I definitely see it too. Patterned trade structures sticking to a formula with proportions that end up looking mental. Sure, Patterning is something advanced human traders did in the day, but usually more thought went into it. Bots now build some incredibly stupid structures, but with enough speed they can escape any sticky situation. Also, human patterning usually had a core target price based on some kind of fundamental analysis, rarely so for bots. The days of the stock market being a place for sound companies to raise equity and unsound companies to die are long over.

Well, you know all this, better than me, but it feels good to rant.

The book is utterly worthless now as a consideration when trading unless one has the millisecond advantage. Seems to me that the book is just a propaganda play-thing to trick casual observers into thinking that everything is CAVOK, that there's a viable route should a position need creating/eliminating. Worse, it's a trap designed to bait suckers into a trade so they can be scalped.

And we're not even talking about dark pools...

Sun, 04/07/2013 - 09:24 | 3418202 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

The book still works well where theres less algos sucking those pennys out. Also, for FIFO based products (lost of ICE commodities), the book is a wonderful guage. Even some NYBOTS like sugar, coffee, cocoa. You see machines playing around with volumes as nanex had said in his post above, but there's considerably less noise such as quote stuffing or flashing random blocks (i.e. 250 lot on a price level on a product that typically has size of only 50 on the bid/ask).

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 23:42 | 3417824 Ceylon tea
Ceylon tea's picture

Buzz kill bitchez

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:09 | 3417959 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

fraud exceeding all previous records, manipulation countering manipulation & those most deeply guilty are most publicly proud - "that's why I'm richer than you are!"

Is it finally time for this Fight Club line?

it's true - we haven't been fucked like this since grade school

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