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Market Responds To NFP - Great Rotation To Safety

Tyler Durden's picture


The kneejerk response to this morning's dismal NFP print was significant disappointment. 10Y yields plunged to a 1.68% handle - its lowest in almost 5 months (and largest 3-day drop in yields in 10 months), S&P futures dropped 10 points (and were already weak overnight), Gold spiked, VIX futures popped over 1 vol to 15.3, and the USD weakened notably against the EUR (which broke above 1.30). The spike is being retraced now but very slowly.



and as a reminder of the disconnect...


So the great rotation to safety continues...


Charts: Bloomberg


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Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411943 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

A logical reaction, that's just illogical.  

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411961 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

Watch gold.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3411978 flacon
flacon's picture

I don't understand why *sometimes* people rush to gold and other times they throw gold under the bus.... 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:03 | 3411992 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

People haven't rushed to gold.

It has been repeatedly ground down.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:04 | 3412008 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Odd, just checked and all the ounces are still there.  Please, ignore paper gold.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:34 | 3412236 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

The market is very nervous and overbought. The NFP data today does not justify a big reaction.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3411983 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I just checked my sock hasn't been hacked yet.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:12 | 3412069 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

Goading the Bitcoin cheerleaders? ;-)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3412113 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They're too busy & tied up trying to log in to the exchange server

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:14 | 3412100 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

You live in fear of someone wanting to hack at your socks? Damn, you've got strange concerns :-P

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:29 | 3412221 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture's still there.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:46 | 3413002 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

... now that's a 'rounding error', ironically on a downward slope where momentum will meet a wall street head-on!?

abort, abort, abort,...

the 'qe`bilge pump' is dysfunctional captain bur`rr'nak!

we're fuck'd!!!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411944 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

wow that is starting to simulate what a real market would do very well today

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3411963 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

We just saw a flying pig!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411966 Cursive
Cursive's picture


Is today the day that the curtain drops on "BernanQE's Greatest Economic Hoax and CNBS Circle Jerk of All-Time?"

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:43 | 3412987 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Take the Circle Jerk out of CNBS and all that's left is commercials.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411970 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Somebody turned on the light switch!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411947 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Well, maybe, just maybe, it is our Turn.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411953 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

I won't be surprised to see DOW finish green today :))

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3411985 Cursive
Cursive's picture


The day is approaching where even the TBTF/PPT won't be able to maintain life support on this coma of a "market."

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:07 | 3412035 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

The only thing that would surprise me at this point is if Katy Perry rode into my room in a velociraptor and started giving me a blowjob. The market, on the other hand, shouldn't surprise anyone that follows it.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:13 | 3412105 Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

Would the raptor still be in the room when this was happening? That would be a little awkward.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:08 | 3412485 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Wouldn't surprise me if he stayed in the room at that point. Animals brought back from extinction have all sorts of weird tendencies. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:44 | 3412990 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

A veritable prophet you are.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411956 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Safety, the 30 Years, safe? Ha come the fuck on, wait until the end of this decade.... Treasuries are going to be a blood bath.




Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411969 DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | 3411995 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

85 billion that we know of.  TPTB know there is a specific range they need to keep treasuries in to make it "appear" like normal, unmanipulated market trading.  The world is quickly become range bound in many ways.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411972 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Good luck with that. People shorting Japanese bonds have gotten reamed forty years and counting. Thirty years and counting in the usa.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3411977 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The term for the next hundred years that every trader needs to be familiar with is "range bound".  There is no market, all will be as your local authority describes.   That is all, get back to work.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:06 | 3412037 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

It won't see range bound, it will see roped, hog-tied and sent to slaughter...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:13 | 3412092 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not as long as the Fed and primary dealers can make the bid whatever they want.  Until that changes, we remain range-bound and this little club of arrogant fucks will continue to profit by front-running themselves.  Full frontal, theft/fraud.  Roll the motherfucking guillotines already.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3411964 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I would not short treasuries yet, just look at Japan. Wait till the 10 is negative interest and they pay us to buy a house. lol

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:40 | 3412300 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Didn't we do that back in '08 with tax credits?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:34 | 3412639 DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

"they pay us to buy a house"

Buy a set of Whirpool "Green" Appliances and you get a Coupon for a house in Stockton ... downtonw to boot!!!!

Love, Uncle Sam.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3411965 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

LOL..dismal news, silver goes up 0.12, bad or no news Ag goes down...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411968 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'd guess insiders started selling this news around 8am on wednesday.  Very very strange to see the /es actually lower at 4am.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | 3411971 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Patience, patience. Silver will move.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | 3411988 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

up, or down?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:08 | 3412056 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Either way, if I can get some silver when the price is in the $25 per ounce range, I'm a buyer. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3411982 sandiegoman
sandiegoman's picture

Turndown in defense spending is just starting to hit. Not looking good.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | 3411994 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Given the political adjustments we have seen with this number, it makes me wonder if they jacked it down so that Obama can push more spending or repeal of parts of the sequester. It clearly shows that QE has no impact.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:05 | 3412031 Jason T
Jason T's picture

yeah, UUP or TLT?  not sure what to buy

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:10 | 3412058 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     You know things are f**ked up when the euro and pound both spike over a 100 pips on the NFP#s. Those two 'Heckle & Jeckle' economies are far worse off.

      I think the $ might start to strengthen if things really start to deteriorate. People can't run to the yen anymore. I bought some paper silver last night as s/t hedge @ 26.85. Let's see if it does anything.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:28 | 3412208 css1971
css1971's picture

See, that's how you make gold & silver go up. You fuck over every other safe haven first.


That's quite an achievement by the guys in charge BTW.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:36 | 3412253 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  +1 on that comment.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:09 | 3412060 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Must save the S & P Bernanke says in a Ren the Chihuahua voice. Bonus points if anyone picks up the actual line I am referencing from Ren and Stimpy.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:10 | 3412075 fuu
fuu's picture

Must save the brain.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:31 | 3412228 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

You of all people seem somewhat NOT endangered to me ...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:41 | 3412305 fuu
fuu's picture

Grats on the 3 hours.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:04 | 3412795 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Thank you. I've come a long way, reading ZH since the days Marla was still around. And particulary you (among some others) are one of the posters I enjoy very much. So I thought, I'd hang around with the usual supects a bit  :)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:10 | 3412061 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

First off "Phuck You Goverment Traitor." Second...I hope all those shorts on Wall Street who never saw a job they didn't want to eliminate keep covering "all the way to the zero bound." third I still don't see the "raging hard on recession." normally I would put a "yet" here but the amazing move in equities oh these many years does give me pause...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3412077 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

At what point does all this rotating in and out of bonds and stocks make people so dizzy that all they can do is puke on their shoes?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3412082 e-recep
e-recep's picture

bummer, jamie has to sell more german gold to bring down the gold price. turn on the lights of the passage to the nyfed vault.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:15 | 3412119 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Someone already had inside info on this jobs data release, for treasuries had been bid up 24hrs in advance....

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:22 | 3412180 Melin
Melin's picture

say it aint so

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:31 | 3412935 nicoacademia
nicoacademia's picture

o reaaaaallllllyyyyyyyy...

you don't say /sarc

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:21 | 3412156 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

UST safe?!?  Only if they can keep the music playing.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:37 | 3412259 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

2pm ramp will save the market, with total claw-back by monday afternoon. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:47 | 3412354 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

The fed is just trying to create your reality, It's the same old playbook regarding bonds and safety


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:32 | 3412938 nicoacademia
nicoacademia's picture

here's some JGBs :)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:49 | 3413028 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The Fed, in its infinite wisdom, knows that Gun Confiscation, Bank account confiscation, and a bursting credit bubble, combined with relentless counterfeiting of paper currency,  will stimulate the economy.

That's why they "make" the big bucks.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:57 | 3413071 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Timeline of a con / inside job:

10AM Hongkong futures sell off 2.5% for no reason at all (poultry??)

5PM Germany futures sell off 2% for no reason at all (mini-expiry???)

8:30PM Shit payroll number, futures markets well bid at lower levels



Sat, 04/06/2013 - 13:51 | 3416490 optionsman
optionsman's picture

nothing better than coming back from vacation and seeing 10yr yld drop so much )))))). fuck you all the 25 year old portfolio managers who shorted duration on the premise that the recovery is well under way, solid or whatever bullshit story you want to give to investors in your mutual funds. all the bets in your portfolio are one directional- overweight corporate spreads?, underweight Treasury duration? underweight USD vs a basket of currencies? great. in the end, these trades will work out for them because the Fed will make sure of that but it wont be because their published rationale for the portfolio tilts is correct......

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