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Market Responds To NFP - Great Rotation To Safety

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The kneejerk response to this morning's dismal NFP print was significant disappointment. 10Y yields plunged to a 1.68% handle - its lowest in almost 5 months (and largest 3-day drop in yields in 10 months), S&P futures dropped 10 points (and were already weak overnight), Gold spiked, VIX futures popped over 1 vol to 15.3, and the USD weakened notably against the EUR (which broke above 1.30). The spike is being retraced now but very slowly.

 

 

and as a reminder of the disconnect...

 

So the great rotation to safety continues...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

A logical reaction, that's just illogical.  

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

Watch gold.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

I don't understand why *sometimes* people rush to gold and other times they throw gold under the bus.... 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

People haven't rushed to gold.

It has been repeatedly ground down.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:04 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Odd, just checked and all the ounces are still there.  Please, ignore paper gold.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

The market is very nervous and overbought. The NFP data today does not justify a big reaction.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I just checked my sock drawer....nope....it hasn't been hacked yet.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:12 | Link to Comment aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

Goading the Bitcoin cheerleaders? ;-)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They're too busy & tied up trying to log in to the exchange server

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

You live in fear of someone wanting to hack at your socks? Damn, you've got strange concerns :-P

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

Aaand...it's still there.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:46 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

... now that's a 'rounding error', ironically on a downward slope where momentum will meet a wall street head-on!?

abort, abort, abort,...

the 'qe`bilge pump' is dysfunctional captain bur`rr'nak!

we're fuck'd!!!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

wow that is starting to simulate what a real market would do very well today

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

We just saw a flying pig!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@buzzsaw99

Is today the day that the curtain drops on "BernanQE's Greatest Economic Hoax and CNBS Circle Jerk of All-Time?"

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Take the Circle Jerk out of CNBS and all that's left is commercials.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Somebody turned on the light switch!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Well, maybe, just maybe, it is our Turn.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

I won't be surprised to see DOW finish green today :))

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@fomcy

The day is approaching where even the TBTF/PPT won't be able to maintain life support on this coma of a "market."

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:07 | Link to Comment TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

The only thing that would surprise me at this point is if Katy Perry rode into my room in a velociraptor and started giving me a blowjob. The market, on the other hand, shouldn't surprise anyone that follows it.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Sauk Leader
Sauk Leader's picture

Would the raptor still be in the room when this was happening? That would be a little awkward.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:08 | Link to Comment TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Wouldn't surprise me if he stayed in the room at that point. Animals brought back from extinction have all sorts of weird tendencies. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

A veritable prophet you are.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Safety, the 30 Years, safe? Ha come the fuck on, wait until the end of this decade.... Treasuries are going to be a blood bath.

 

TIME TO SHORT TREASURIES AGAIN!

 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture

GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR E-TRADE ACCOUNT AGAINST THE BEARDED DOVE AND HIS $85 BN A MONTH HABIT...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

85 billion that we know of.  TPTB know there is a specific range they need to keep treasuries in to make it "appear" like normal, unmanipulated market trading.  The world is quickly become range bound in many ways.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Good luck with that. People shorting Japanese bonds have gotten reamed forty years and counting. Thirty years and counting in the usa.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The term for the next hundred years that every trader needs to be familiar with is "range bound".  There is no market, all will be as your local authority describes.   That is all, get back to work.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:06 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

It won't see range bound, it will see roped, hog-tied and sent to slaughter...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:13 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not as long as the Fed and primary dealers can make the bid whatever they want.  Until that changes, we remain range-bound and this little club of arrogant fucks will continue to profit by front-running themselves.  Full frontal, theft/fraud.  Roll the motherfucking guillotines already.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

I would not short treasuries yet, just look at Japan. Wait till the 10 is negative interest and they pay us to buy a house. lol

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:40 | Link to Comment dow2000
dow2000's picture

Didn't we do that back in '08 with tax credits?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:34 | Link to Comment DoneThis2Long
DoneThis2Long's picture

"they pay us to buy a house"

Buy a set of Whirpool "Green" Appliances and you get a Coupon for a house in Stockton ... downtonw to boot!!!!

Love, Uncle Sam.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

LOL..dismal news, silver goes up 0.12, bad or no news Ag goes down...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'd guess insiders started selling this news around 8am on wednesday.  Very very strange to see the /es actually lower at 4am.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Patience, patience. Silver will move.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

up, or down?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:08 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Either way, if I can get some silver when the price is in the $25 per ounce range, I'm a buyer. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | Link to Comment sandiegoman
sandiegoman's picture

Turndown in defense spending is just starting to hit. Not looking good.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Given the political adjustments we have seen with this number, it makes me wonder if they jacked it down so that Obama can push more spending or repeal of parts of the sequester. It clearly shows that QE has no impact.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

yeah, UUP or TLT?  not sure what to buy

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     You know things are f**ked up when the euro and pound both spike over a 100 pips on the NFP#s. Those two 'Heckle & Jeckle' economies are far worse off.

      I think the $ might start to strengthen if things really start to deteriorate. People can't run to the yen anymore. I bought some paper silver last night as s/t hedge @ 26.85. Let's see if it does anything.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

See, that's how you make gold & silver go up. You fuck over every other safe haven first.

 

That's quite an achievement by the guys in charge BTW.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  +1 on that comment.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Must save the S & P Bernanke says in a Ren the Chihuahua voice. Bonus points if anyone picks up the actual line I am referencing from Ren and Stimpy.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Must save the brain.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:31 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

You of all people seem somewhat NOT endangered to me ...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Grats on the 3 hours.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:04 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Thank you. I've come a long way, reading ZH since the days Marla was still around. And particulary you (among some others) are one of the posters I enjoy very much. So I thought, I'd hang around with the usual supects a bit  :)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

First off "Phuck You Goverment Traitor." Second...I hope all those shorts on Wall Street who never saw a job they didn't want to eliminate keep covering "all the way to the zero bound." third I still don't see the "raging hard on recession." normally I would put a "yet" here but the amazing move in equities oh these many years does give me pause...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

At what point does all this rotating in and out of bonds and stocks make people so dizzy that all they can do is puke on their shoes?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

bummer, jamie has to sell more german gold to bring down the gold price. turn on the lights of the passage to the nyfed vault.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment Confundido
Confundido's picture

Someone already had inside info on this jobs data release, for treasuries had been bid up 24hrs in advance....

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment Melin
Melin's picture

say it aint so

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:31 | Link to Comment nicoacademia
nicoacademia's picture

o reaaaaallllllyyyyyyyy...

you don't say /sarc

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

UST safe?!?  Only if they can keep the music playing.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:37 | Link to Comment wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

2pm ramp will save the market, with total claw-back by monday afternoon. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

The fed is just trying to create your reality, It's the same old playbook regarding bonds and safety

 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:32 | Link to Comment nicoacademia
nicoacademia's picture

here's some JGBs :)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

The Fed, in its infinite wisdom, knows that Gun Confiscation, Bank account confiscation, and a bursting credit bubble, combined with relentless counterfeiting of paper currency,  will stimulate the economy.

That's why they "make" the big bucks.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Timeline of a con / inside job:

10AM Hongkong futures sell off 2.5% for no reason at all (poultry??)

5PM Germany futures sell off 2% for no reason at all (mini-expiry???)

8:30PM Shit payroll number, futures markets well bid at lower levels

 

Hmmm

Sat, 04/06/2013 - 13:51 | Link to Comment optionsman
optionsman's picture

nothing better than coming back from vacation and seeing 10yr yld drop so much )))))). fuck you all the 25 year old portfolio managers who shorted duration on the premise that the recovery is well under way, solid or whatever bullshit story you want to give to investors in your mutual funds. all the bets in your portfolio are one directional- overweight corporate spreads?, underweight Treasury duration? underweight USD vs a basket of currencies? great. in the end, these trades will work out for them because the Fed will make sure of that but it wont be because their published rationale for the portfolio tilts is correct......

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