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Non-Farm Payroll Preview
From RanSquawk
March US Non-Farm Payrolls
US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) M/M Exp. 190K (Range: low 100K, high 366K) (Feb 236K, Jan 119K)
US Unemployment Rate (Mar) M/M Exp. 7.7% (Range: low 7.6%, high 7.8%) (Feb 7.7%, Jan 7.9%)
Given weaker than expected US jobs data this week, whisper number has been around the 165K mark
- Deutsche Bank 160K
- HSBC 174K
- Goldman Sachs 175K
- Citi 175K
- Barclays Capital 175K
- UBS 190K
- Bank of America 200K
- JP Morgan 210K
Despite the labour market showing strength in recent months, this week's employment data has been weaker than expected in the US with ADP employment change at its lowest level this year at 158K. Other data has also been weaker with the employment sub-index of ISM non-manufacturing coming in lower than the previous month and Thursday's weekly claims data worse than expected. However, it is worth noting that a figure above 220K would bring the six-month average growth in payrolls up to 200K, which is a threshold some FOMC members have described as a significant enough improvement in the labour market to allow the Fed to taper their QE programme. As recently as Wednesday, Fed’s Evans said he wants to see monthly job growth of at least 200,000 for 6 months. On the other hand, analysts at Credit Suisse say two more consecutive months of 225K may prompt the Fed to contemplate tapering off QE purchases. Current estimates range from a low of 100K to a high of 366K, representing a much higher high-end estimate than seen in recent months, however it is worth noting the bulk of estimates are between 175K to 205K, representing a relatively tight range.
Market Reactions
A headline figure in line or higher than the median expectation of 190K would confirm the labour market strength in the US continuing to outperform the Eurozone where unemployment recently hit a record high at 12.0%. However, do note that due to the weaker than expected ADP reading there is a whisper number of 165K and as such, a number in line with the median estimate (190K), or even 10K to 15K below, may well be perceived positively in the initial fast money move and prompt immediate strength in the USD, where recent trends suggest that the greenback is moving in tandem with US economic fundamentals. Also in post release trade keep in mind that a strong number will likely heighten the prospect of the Fed ending QE sooner rather than later and as such any upward momentum in stocks from a forecast beating number may be decidedly short lived. Meanwhile, in terms of precious metals, the latest employment report is unlikely to shake the bearish trend in the yellow metal despite any near term short covering that may be seen following a weak number.
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101 years: 118K
If Hillary is running, I say the payrolls report in October 2016 will show 837,000 jobs and 4.1% rate. Of course, we will have to keep a D in office with that sort of success.....
participation rate....lowest since 1979
Wait, I forget. When people go to prison and have to work for a penny and hour, do we count those jobs?
CNBS austin goolsby looked into the camera and blamed the sequester! what a sellout. never believe anything from this dude again.
Wasn't 1979 the year barry soetoro didn't fillout a selective service form?
Swing and a miss !
I say 133k. ..cant have too good a number since Ben aint stoppn the flow.
Ben does NOT want a "good" number because he CANNOT stop the flow. His nightmare is that the 6.5% threshold is actually reached (it won't, because it's driven by the participation rate/denominator dropping faster than the numerator - a very, very slow boat to China).
Bank of North Dakota---111,000
Are we still looking at numbers?
Exactly.
We claim the numbers are rigged yet we watch them just as closely as anyone else. When they "miss" we say "see, I told ja" and when they are "good" we say the fix is in.
So....are the numbers believable or not? We can't have it both ways folks.
It will all be irrelevant when the Chinese avian/swine/gold-consuming influenza strikes!
Ooh another favorite rerun media boogeyman.
We need the distraction. It seems global cooling changed silently to global warming that morphed into climate change which is now morphing back into global cooling. Its just amazing how we are aligning so well with Orwell's 1984. We are at war with Eruasia, no East Asia, while never missing a beat. Danger to the left of me, tragedy on the right. Which way to turn? Full speed straight ahead!
So....are the numbers believable or not?
Not.....there I said it.
Is the money in your 401K and bank account safe or not?
Is it safe...or is it even there?
401(k) = The Matrix spoon
124,000
HAHAHAHA
I win
88k, what a bunch of losers at the Fed
230k due to Bamy care part timers
Can someone please explain to me the value of "expert" projections if they simply walk them up or down in the 48 hours before the actual numbers release?
(Not a real question. We actually know why they do this.)
Its called "jobs". We wonder why our economy feels like its sliding off a cliff when we have such a huge part of our "employment" doing nothing of value except to keep the illusion of the casino alive.
Gold and silver to crash in the 10 min before?
Also, I'm going with 120k.
Since it's all made up anyways, why not just say 500k ? That should show 'em who's boss!
Hoping for below 160k, to keep Gold trade alive.
You mean the paper "gold" trade, right?
Over the line! Mark it a zero!
you're entering a world of pain Smokey!
I wonder why JPM is so bullish, they know exactly what the SNAP demand is.
Pray tell, is there indeed anything left in todays world that's not even remotely bullish?!
yep, they know what the snap demand is above j d's shoulders!
Why do these FOMC brainiacs not understand that its not lack of QE holding the economy back (really they get it they are just making excuses to continue bailing the banks out and giving the politicians what they want by letting them continue to spend like drunken sailors). Look at the madness coming down the pike and its plain to see why things are not going to get better no matter how much QE. Obamacare, DoddFrank, EPA running wild, Labor department run by thugs, tax increases.... etc... what is a few 100 more billion going to do to unemployment with all these rediculous policies. Only thing that would help is fed getting out of the way let interest rates rise so the politicians have to address the issues... Japan is perfect example of what happens, US is going straight down the same road.
If the USD was really moving with economic fundamentals it would be tanking right now.
8:20am: The predictable smack down of gold began in earnest...$1,525/oz today???
Back up the truck!
last night's Pick Three was 178.
I'm going with 178k.
200+ :) If you can freely print money - you'll never afraid to print any number you want.
245, last month revised downward about 50K.......... If I am right how about the prize being a stuffed dead pig.
how about a freshly stuft chicken - imported from zhejiang???
A bucket of China chicken goes to the winner...
Revised 10x and a final number appears sometime in 2015.
Booyah.
Ha, yeah take the free money punch bowl away Yellen & Evans. Wall St will then look like that kid from the exorcist.
Wow! Can't wait to see the market skyrocket despite today's print.
Watch, today its a lagging indicator..
Something's up, gold up $10 in a matter of seconds
Just the CBs doing some algo de-bugging in the background. Word is everything checks out fine and they're resuming the April hammerfest.
88,000 recover!
As we busily debate the failure in aerodynamics of wing design, the inefficiency of carbon based fuels and cost ineffectiviness of air travel, the plane we are riding is plummeting towards the ground. New numbers out and bad hiring numbers yet unemployment numbers go down. Numbers are a distraction.
NOTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!
88k? HAHAHAHHAHAHAH *Wheeze* HAHAHHA
So 88000 ...thats 1650/state...ooh! Wow what a recovery...
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.3!!!
Is that the same as "forced labor participation"?
Employment level
Feb to March
143492 143286-206k
Woops.
Labor Force
Jan - March
155654 155028-626k
Woops.
We have to stop complaining. We are hurting Obama's agenda to save us from ourselves. Drink the KooooolAid and keep on smiling! I'm trying to decide my favorite flavor. Probably lemon, as we must make lemonaid from lemons, right?
I think things are going just as he (his masters) planned.
And these are supposedly the brightest and smartest
(the financial elite) that most americians trust to manage their money.
SAD. VERY SAD INDEED
you know what's sadder...i emailed a forecast of 115,000 to CNBC in the UK this morning!!!
just think..those economists are parts of teams of people (of up to 5 people) who get a minimum of $150,000 with a bonus of the same.
they have been getting this for years and years and years andhave fucked up so consistently it beggars belief.
there are some good ones out there..but they are specialist forecasting firms and most certainly do not work for TBTF, TBTJ or TBT Be Smart fat assed banksters
and these shits will have the ear of the Treasury and the Fed too
where is the Fed forecast anyway? they don't even have to make one! hahahaha