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Payrolls Plunge To 88K, Biggest Miss Since December 2009, Participation Rate At New 30 Year Low
So much for "open-ended QE driven recovery". Moments ago the March Non-farm payroll hit and it was a doozy, printing at 88K, below the lowest forecast of 100K, well below the expected number of 190K, and a tragedy compared to the February revised print of 268K (was 236K). This was the biggest miss to expectations since December 2009 and the worst print since June 2012. The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low.
And now the time to come up with excuses is here.
and its not just the US - Canada's employment collapsed the most since Jan 09...
From the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment
edged up in March (+88,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment growth
had averaged 169,000 per month. In March, employment increased in
professional and business services and in health care, while retail
trade employment declined. (See table B-1.)
Professional and
business services added 51,000 jobs in March. Over the past 12 months,
employment in this industry has grown by 533,000. Within professional
and business services, accounting and bookkeeping services added 11,000
jobs over the month, and employment continued to trend up in temporary
help services and in several other component industries.
Job
growth in health care continued in March, with a gain of 23,000, similar
to the prior 12-month average. Within health care, employment increased
by 15,000 in ambulatory health care services, such as home health care,
and by 8,000 in hospitals.
Construction employment continued to
trend up in March (+18,000). Job growth in this industry picked up this
past fall; since September, the industry has added 169,000 jobs. In
March, employment continued to expand among specialty trade contractors
(+23,000). Employment in specialty trade contractors has increased by
128,000 since September, with the gain about equally split between the
residential and nonresidential components.
Within leisure and
hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued
to trend up in March (+13,000). Over the past year, the industry added
262,000 jobs.
In March, retail trade employment declined by
24,000. The industry had added an average of 32,000 jobs per month over
the prior 6 months. In March, job declines occurred in clothing and
clothing accessories stores (-15,000), building material and garden
supply stores (-10,000), and electronics and appliance stores (-6,000).
Within
government, U.S. Postal Service employment fell by 12,000 in March.
Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial
activities, state government, and local government, showed little change
over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on
private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. The
manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factory
overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for
production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was
unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In March,
average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls,
at $23.82, changed little (+1 cent). Over the year, average hourly
earnings have risen by 42 cents, or 1.8 percent. Average hourly earnings
of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $20.03,
changed little (-1 cent) in March. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The
change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from
+119,000 to +148,000, and the change for February was revised from
+236,000 to +268,000.
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The number posted was way less than expected. We still have a weak Economy / Job market.
Layoff / Closing List
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http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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But on our deathbeds we will receive total consciousness. So we have that going for us...which is nice.
that's only according to the dali lama
Long hitter, the Lama.
GUNGA GALUNGA!!!
Did somebody step on a duck?
Waiting for Krugman to crow about how well the Fed is doing printing money.
Here is a picture of the true state of employment:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART/
Not To Worry, OpBama Says Recovery Is On !!!
How come the markets aren't up on this bad news?
Its easy to grin, when your ship comes in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile, is the man who can smile, when his shorts are too tight in the seat.
Ok pookie do the honors.
"This is not the change you're looking for."
There won't be any money, but when you die....on you're death bed...you will receive total consciousness.
So we've got that going for us....which is nice.
plus i have a pool and a pond....a pond would be good for you...
I blame this on you smlbizman!
You actually went and did it.... you bought that multi-unit property, didn't you?
im working on it......thanks for remembering....and see what i did for the metals?
The narrow gray band that represents the recession that ended a couple of years ago is insulting.
.
big hitter, THE LAMA
~~~
http://dudespaper.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/bighitter2.jpg
Ya gotta believe in something............
Meanwhile....back at Bloombarf...."when you dig down it's much better than the headline number".......BARF....
Could be alot worse. At least they have not found 21,000 dead pigs floating down the Mississippi River.....yet.
Yeah we now know why the bastards bashed PM's down this week. Fuck you Blythe.
Pigs floating in rivers, chickens slaughtered, payroll report disaster. That's it. I'm done......
PS Want to see a bid? Look at Treasuries.....
Look at gold.
Squeeze is on for € shorts. Europe is fixed!
We must build more Burger Kings.
We must build moar roads and bridges!!!
Too late for roads and bridges - must. build. boats.
Ah, but those 88,000 jobs were valuable to each person who got one of them, and the 10% discount off the retail price they will receive is an added bonus.
I wonder how many of those 88K jobs were full time as opposed to part time. I also wonder how many of those jobs went to someone who already had a job, particularly the part time jobs.
Add in those who are not in the labor pool, you have over 139,000 people now depending on those 88,000 new jobs. And it'll just keep getting better.
This is strongly bullish.
Shirley! What else could it be?
Bullish for PM's, that is...
Congrats!
It's time for excuses, the time for lies will come later. Here's one - "these statistics are misleading, because food stamps and welfare actually contribute more to the economy than they cost. We're actually growing the economy by decreasing workforce participation." Then follow-up the excuse with some name-calling and lies... "Of course, the mentally deficient, racist, bigot, homophobic republitards are infuriated when they see unemployed brown-skinned people doing more for the economy than their pitiful, anemic, dwindling numbers of hard-working Ward-Cleaver-like white guys. This really is bullish!"
'This is strongly bullish.'
It was monster bullish for bonds yesterday.
At least for thoese who received the memo (wink, wink).
Yup. Now Bernanke has what he needs to "get to work".
Bullish for assless chaps, home-made hockey masks and razor-sharp stainless steel boomerangs, I think you mean.
Gravity! Who could have known?
Bernank - Presses to ludicrous speed.....
The flash-crash in the dollar is a result of Ben switching the print-o-matic over to MSM spin points for the next couple hours. Rumor is he'll be switching back to fiat by noon.
bigger wall street bonuses can fix this. :roll:
88k jobs created (a lie to srart with), and UE rate goes down?? WTF
So, for every billion they pump into the market, we gain about 1,000 jobs.
Yeah...I guess that's good. Right?
trickle down
So, for every billion they pump into the market, we gain about 1,000 jobs.
That's the credo hanging in both Jamie Dimon and Roger Goodell's offices...
Right, and those 88k jobs also aren't enough to keep pace with population growth.
Because the "participation rate" dropped. When the participation rate goes to zero, unemployment also goes to zero. When EVERYONE is on welfare and disability, there will be ZERO unemployment.
Labor Force
Jan - March
155654 155028-626k
Woops.
Size of civilian labor force contracted. People vanishing from the report. Must be an uptick in alien abductions.
Labor force participation rate, bro!
thats a really punk number thats for sure, I mean the lowest labor participation rate in 30 years!
Mr. 2for22 is really giving Jimmy Carter a run for the bottom of the list.
That's almost 1,000 jobs for every $1,000,000,000 the Fed printed last month. In other words, it's costing taxpayers $1,000,000 for every new job created.
THE FED HAS TO PRINT 1 MILLION DOLLARS TO CREATE 1 JOB???!!!!!!!! IS THAT REALLY THE BEST THIS COUNTRY HAS TO OFFER?!!!! I COULD GET ANY 10 YEAR OLD FROM ANY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IN THE COUNTRY AND THEY WOULD DO A BETTER JOB!
Ah but just think...those jobs are going to those with less than HS diploma...huge spike.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/LNS12327659
I just have to say something is VERY wrong when you find yourself cheering upon seeing stocks plunge and gold/silver spike. It really shouldn't be that way, but I win today. F U Bernanke!!!
@sharky2003
This is what grifters/rent seekers do. They insert themselves where they are not needed to earn pay that is not necessary. The grifter makes coin only by creating arbitrage opportunities. It's not real economic activity, it's actually harmful to real economic activity. When we finally outlaw the grifters/rent seekers, we won't have to pit one financial interest or financial market against another.
The problem is the biggest rent seekers are the local, county, state, and US governments.
Out of ink?
Great moniker for what you posted.
Moar QE needed print $150 bn a month now.
Commence ad hominem Krugman attacks in 3 2 1...
There you go: FUCK YOU KRUGMAN!
Why participate when everything is free from the goverment?
And now they have the blueprint on how to steal your bank deposits. Go Galt. Starve the beast.
I have a farm in Brazil, and if I moved from Switzerland to Brazil to farm something other than dirt or trees- I would wind up paying over 93% <<NINETY THREE PERCENT>> of my "profit" to the governments of the US and Brazil, because there is no double taxation treaty between the the US & Brazil. The measly sub 7% take home would barely cover property taxes on land and equipment, much less actaully enjoying the fruits of my labor while paying the 40% ICMS (VAT) on iCrap or gasoline.
Coming back to the US, joining the free shit army, and watching it all burn down actually would be more enjoyable than working my ass off to pay for the 37% who are just too "discouraged" to get off their lazy asses.
Although I could just stay here in Switzerland and lease my land to a Monsanto McFarmer who could pay big bucks to byzantine maze of corporate entities which could cap my tax rate at 7% and would allow the McFarmer to produce McFood to export to the McFatties and poison them into extinction that much faster, thereby driving the labor force participation rate back up (at the expense of never being able to use that farm to produce real food for myself).
Perverse incentives all around. Right now I have other options, but who's to say what options will remain if the ECB fucks up and nukes the European financial system that I rely on for trade finance?
Watching CNBC, Austin Goolsby (sp?) tried to jump in and blame this on sequester; even Leisman had to disagree with him. Funny.
The CNBC morons like to think that they're relevant... they're not.
The numbers are only relavent to those who don't have a job. Who cares about them, right. Just print enough money to keep their mouths shut and by the time this crate hits the ground and all of the shit flows out, it will be far too late to fix anything
And the segment closed with Liesman praising government spending and Santelli calling him a communist.
When I see Austin Goolsby speak I find myself trying to figure out if he's an actor (i.e. knows that he's lying, but just playing a part) or if his mind is mush and as such, is mostly controlled. There's a fine line there and it could be both, but he's interesting to watch, none the less. He kind of scares me.
Two choices. they are either evil and deliberately pushing an agenda of destruction. The other is an education and belief in a course of action and no other. No consideration of alternate approaches. No concept of possibly being deadly wrong. Failure only means they have lacked the commitment to the agenda and need only more, more , more. This is the same thing that kills people in their own lives. A commitment to a bad idea and no backing off. The difference is that those individuals tracking on a self destructive path generally only destroy themselves. These assholes, who are so self absorbed in their elitist mentality, are driving ALL of us off the cliff. In a free society we are free to self destruct but in a collectivist society we are free to be destroyed by a realtive few.
wow! who would of known? I mean with all the swell headed idiots on msm screaming recovery!
Would HAVE known. Sorry, but this one drives us crazy.
could have been worse LOL - http://hedge.ly/YWmSAw
The sequester the sequester!!!!!!!
Is it true that the White House is blaming Obama's poor hoop-shooting on the sequester?
No, the White House press corps is still in shock from the 2-for-22 because they realize that Obongo really is gay, Reggie Love is his bum buddy, and the Wookie really is a single mother (sorry, OT, but I couldn't resist).
Michelle is running around telling everyone she is a single mom.... So Barry isn't even hitting the rim on her basket!
EUR/USD rushes above 1.30, because everything is fixed in Europe and a weaker US economy is bullish for Europe lol.
The western world has been selling their own people out for years, nothing new to see here, move along. Greed is good and print MOAR!!!
But, but on CNBS they said it would be 150k and even Ghoulsbee said 149k and he was bearish.
The upward revisions to January and February came to 60K+. Add that to the 88K and you end up at 149K. Right on target.
Bullish! Bernanke willsimply increase QE. Dow to 36,000!
Bullish! Bernanke will simply increase QE. Loaf of bread to $14.99.
Seems to me that QE is NOT working. Time to reevaluate. Is it really worth the costs???
You don't think the real reason for QE has anything to do with employment, do you?
our central banker masters have spoken : there is no plan b. the only plan is "plan heidelberg".
QE was predicated on Okun's Law. Given the exceptional stimulus and stagnant job growth what is their justification other than to enrich the1%?
Time for both repubs and dems to challenge the fed. QE will NOT be popular during the next FED chief confirmation hearings. Not good for markets.
Where's that moron Krugman?
In a steady delirium?
high-capacity assault analysis
definitely with white al-qaeda
My dog ate my homework.
The sun was in my eyes and I tripped over a rock.
The check is in the mail, really.
"I ran out of gas, I had a flat tire, I didn't have enough money for cab fare..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFvujknrBuE
Someone slap me. I'm starting to believe fundamentals matter again...
just check out the gold charts, you'll be OK in no time.
CNN trying HARD to put a good spin on things. Making me puke. Talking about the under employment # going down? Unbelievable
People on my twitter stream now blaming the cold, snowy March weather #smh
On the bright side I guess, if you are a trader whose trades are based off of QE news and polciies, you will get carpel tunnell from the amount of fist pumping you did when the 88K news came out!
The cold, snowy March weather was the result of Bush not fighting global warming. Therefore, the poor employment data can only be attributed to Bush.
Sure. The under employment is actually the dead and buried. Just like in the elections, they do count for more than dust.
Green shoots?
It's days like this I miss CNBS. I'll bet they're piling it on thick this morning.
CNBS in a nutshell: spin the report as "just a flesh wound", but with right wing partisan jabs in between (so they can drive their "Cut Social Security" meme
The fascists are winning.
Cutting social security would be good, as it would force people into streets and riots.
Sequester's fault...Even though the sequester has $0 in actual cuts and only slows the rate of increased government spending...Somehow that translates into jobs lost.
Obama was right.
need moar QE.
don't forget BTFD, equities are the only game in town.
great rotation narrative.
MOARWARD!
Oh, and that's a bad miss...http://youtu.be/OSMBhsyz1Bg
To think that I connected the Youtube video with a commentary on Mr. 2for22. My bad!
Obamacare KILLING retail.
WMT shelves are bare because they're trying to function with fewer people, as labor is now too expensive.
Manufacturing -3K, exp +10k. Participation rate 63.3%, prev 63.5%. M/M hourly earnings flat, exp +0.2%. Canadian UE rate 7.2%, exp 7.0%.
Bullish!
I guess this Hopey/Changey thing isn't working.
The green shoots were always poison ivy and hemlock.
It's basic Lahey-nomics....what do you get when you plant shit seeds? Shitweeds.
If that are the right weeds you can still make oil out of them ... ;)
Shit Weeds - YouTube
Thank you, Sheepdog, I just learned something :) (I learned a lot from you anyways)
Perfect analogy for what the Fed is doing (shit rope): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVkR7MsfSJY
Shitropes, yep...the harder you cling the more slippery they get!
I beg to differ...
We just have to Hope moar/harder.
and Change moar.
And it wouldn't hurt if a few you would Forward once in a while too. I mean come on! The Ben, aka "T-DoW", can't do it all himself. (T-DoW=The Destroyer of Worlds).
Looks like all the banks got caught flat footed on their UE bets....I'm sure that's no problem though they can just tax depositors -80% over the weekend.
ya but it rained last week, thats why the numbers were weak. if it didnt rain last week in the midwest, this number would be so much higher, guranteed.
ha ha fuck u wall st and obama, u fucking suck. hows ur plan doing now douchebag bernanke and obama?
u can bet ur ass though if this was october before the election, this number would never be this low. now the real numbers are exposed and obama is a fucking fraud who should burn in hell.
this market better fucking be down 600 dow pts today, this number was so fucking bad, i am loving it. fuck u wall st and obama. ur plan is blowing up in ur faces u douchebags
The plan may be blowing up in Wall St./Obama's faces, but the US middle class will suffer colossal collateral damage. As per plan.
it's a bird, it's a plane, no, it's bend us all over bernake buying the dip on the s&p!
FORWARD... Print till it blows Benny...
It's spelled MOARWARD.
BTFD The Bernak has your ass! /sarc
Let's hope this is the beginning of better prices for the PM's. And miners.
TOAST. BURNT TOAST.
DHS breaking out the hollow points, Bernanke running to the HP printer, I am taking all my dough (what little remains) out of the bank today.
Yeah, and FUCK YOU OBAMA, BERNANKE, CONGRESS AND THE YANKEES (Just thought I'd throw in the Yanks, cuz I hate them).
A toaster is just a death ray with a smaller power supply! As soon as it figures out how to tap into the main reactors, it will burn the world ...
Well, I guess we are not printing enough. Lets double down to 170 billion per month. That will surely make it all better.
What a crock of Shit this country is turning into. But Jamie is still richer than most of us. He said so.
Binny B. did say QE till the jobs numbers are better -- The more QE, the worse the employment numbers are so there is a connection isn't there Binny?
Looking at the chart of the labor work force participation rate, there seems to be a correlation between QE and a declining work force. Assuming a causitive inverse relationship between QE and a declining work force, if the work force drops low enough, the unemployment rate will get down to the targeted 6.5%.
In other words, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
Another great forecast by Wall Street gurus.
Let's see now, how shall I transpose this performance on their latest buy recommendations?
Millionaires Got $80 Million in Jobless Aid in Recession“So many people are taking advantage of government support that they probably feel like, why shouldn’t they take advantage of it, too?”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-05/millionaires-got-80-million-in-...
QE has absolutely Zero; Nada; Zip impact on employment/unemployment what-so-ever.
And, both fiscal and monetary policymakers Know this, yet, the stroke; jawbone persists.
The money/debt created flows to Wall St. and a few select others and that's where the road ends as Main St. is left in drought to die.
In all fairness, it is keeping some players fat.
this shouldn't have been a surprise. The give away, JPM and GS estimates at +210k and +175k. I'm sure they've been busy putting their shorts on all week.
My God, check out bonds. Yikes.
Sorry, double post.
If we close at a new Dow high tonight I'll throw in the towel and bet my pension on FB and JPM stock. "Thanks Rosengren"
Bye, bye equity market.
Watching CNBC was amazing, the muppets were literally speechless when they heard the number.
Talk about cognitive dissonance.
Austin Goolsbee turns green: priceless.
It's game over folks, you fuckers are toast.
The talking points are already out. Per CNBC website:
The drop in the jobless rate was little more than a statistical anomaly...However, a broader measure of unemployment that counts the discouraged and underemployed also fell, declining to 13.8 percent from February's 14.3 percent
The equity markets are propped up by illusion...and the illusion is not dead. Patience.
The equity WHAT?? are propped up?! I am looking at this for quite a time now, and I am sure, that, wahtever it may be, it's NOT a "market". I don't know what it is, but probably it isn't even real at all ..
Regrets. The quote key is jammed on my keyboard...I wasn't sure if <open quote> rigged clownfest <close quote> would've translated.
Liesman, who missed projecting the number by over 100%, just opined that if he were sitting on a window ledge, he would not jump on this number...
What would make him jump?
Update: then bleated a challenge at Rick Santelli to show him a report that shows that cutting govt spending would increase jobs, and Santelli told him to go back to Russia, basically calling Liesman a communist.
Now THAT'S entertainment. Squawk box at about 5:40 am PST.
Oh..oh my sides are splitting...oh Doomborg how you can make me laugh with this "headline" for "news"
Job Gains Slow as Unemployment Rate Falls to Four-Year Low
Who is the comedian there Dr. Goebbels?
lmao. no doubt the mantra today will be that "this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime."
That lifetime could be short ...
Toronto radio that I listen to every morning said yesterday that oil reserves in USA are at a 22 year high.
When oil is in the onshore and offshore tankers, not in truck's tankers or car's tankers, what do you expect?
Time to accept that QEs harm the economy by reducing overall trade due to shortage of energy, caused by QEs.
Two options:
1) Continue like this until starvation
2) Let a couple of primary dealers die by not providing money to them via QE, hence they'd default on their CDS payouts.
Let's see.
what's the cost of starving the common people to death to them? zilch. so option 1 is plausible. oil prices are high for quite some time now. they won't do anything about it.