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Payrolls Plunge To 88K, Biggest Miss Since December 2009, Participation Rate At New 30 Year Low

Tyler Durden's picture


So much for "open-ended QE driven recovery". Moments ago the March Non-farm payroll hit and it was a doozy, printing at 88K, below the lowest forecast of 100K, well below the expected number of 190K, and a tragedy compared to the February revised print of 268K (was 236K). This was the biggest miss to expectations since December 2009 and the worst print since June 2012. The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low.

And now the time to come up with excuses is here.



and its not just the US - Canada's employment collapsed the most since Jan 09...


From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment
edged up in March (+88,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment growth
had averaged 169,000 per month. In March, employment increased in
professional and business services and in health care, while retail
trade employment declined. (See table B-1.)

Professional and
business services added 51,000 jobs in March. Over the past 12 months,
employment in this industry has grown by 533,000. Within professional
and business services, accounting and bookkeeping services added 11,000
jobs over the month, and employment continued to trend up in temporary
help services and in several other component industries.

growth in health care continued in March, with a gain of 23,000, similar
to the prior 12-month average. Within health care, employment increased
by 15,000 in ambulatory health care services, such as home health care,
and by 8,000 in hospitals.

Construction employment continued to
trend up in March (+18,000). Job growth in this industry picked up this
past fall; since September, the industry has added 169,000 jobs. In
March, employment continued to expand among specialty trade contractors 
(+23,000). Employment in specialty trade contractors has increased by
128,000 since September, with the gain about equally split between the
residential and nonresidential components.

Within leisure and
hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued
to trend up in March (+13,000). Over the past year, the industry added
262,000 jobs.

In March, retail trade employment declined by
24,000. The industry had added an average of 32,000 jobs per month over
the prior 6 months. In March, job declines occurred in clothing and
clothing accessories stores (-15,000), building material and garden
supply stores (-10,000), and electronics and appliance stores (-6,000).

government, U.S. Postal Service employment fell by 12,000 in March.
Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial
activities, state government, and local government, showed little change
over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on
private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. The
manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factory
overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for
production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was
unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In March,
average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls,
at $23.82, changed little (+1 cent). Over the year, average hourly
earnings have risen by 42 cents, or 1.8 percent. Average hourly earnings
of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $20.03,
changed little (-1 cent) in March. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from
+119,000 to +148,000, and the change for February was revised from
+236,000 to +268,000.

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Fri, 04/05/2013 - 12:50 | 3413306 augmister
augmister's picture

Sure.  The under employment is actually the dead and buried.   Just like in the elections, they do count for more than dust.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3411843 digalert
digalert's picture

Green shoots?

It's days like this I miss CNBS. I'll bet they're piling it on thick this morning.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:52 | 3411921 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

CNBS in a nutshell: spin the report as "just a flesh wound", but with right wing partisan jabs in between (so they can drive their "Cut Social Security" meme

The fascists are winning.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 12:18 | 3413160 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Cutting social security would be good, as it would force people into streets and riots.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:39 | 3411844 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Sequester's fault...Even though the sequester has $0 in actual cuts and only slows the rate of increased government spending...Somehow that translates into jobs lost.

Obama was right.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3411845 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

need moar QE.

don't forget BTFD, equities are the only game in town.

great rotation narrative.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3411858 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:41 | 3411852 Mr. Dew
Mr. Dew's picture

Oh, and that's a bad miss...http://youtu.be/OSMBhsyz1Bg

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:42 | 3412315 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

To think that I connected the Youtube video with a commentary on Mr. 2for22. My bad!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:17 | 3411853 csmith
csmith's picture

Obamacare KILLING retail.


WMT shelves are bare because they're trying to function with fewer people, as labor is now too expensive.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:40 | 3411854 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Manufacturing -3K, exp +10k.  Participation rate 63.3%, prev 63.5%.  M/M hourly earnings flat, exp +0.2%.  Canadian UE rate 7.2%, exp 7.0%. 


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:42 | 3411862 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

I guess this Hopey/Changey thing isn't working.

The green shoots were always poison ivy and hemlock.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:42 | 3411868 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It's basic Lahey-nomics....what do you get when you plant shit seeds? Shitweeds.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:44 | 3411876 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

If that are the right weeds you can still make oil out of them ...  ;)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:47 | 3411888 SheepDog-One
Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3411899 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Thank you, Sheepdog, I just learned something :) (I learned a lot from you anyways)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:51 | 3411918 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Perfect analogy for what the Fed is doing (shit rope): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVkR7MsfSJY

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:56 | 3411950 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Shitropes, yep...the harder you cling the more slippery they get!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:53 | 3411928 bdub2
bdub2's picture

I beg to differ...

We just have to Hope moar/harder.

and Change moar. 

And it wouldn't hurt if a few you would Forward once in a while too. I mean come on!  The Ben, aka "T-DoW", can't do it all himself. (T-DoW=The Destroyer of Worlds).

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:43 | 3411864 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Looks like all the banks got caught flat footed on their UE bets....I'm sure that's no problem though they can just tax depositors -80% over the weekend.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:43 | 3411873 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

ya but it rained last week, thats why the numbers were weak. if it didnt rain last week in the midwest, this number would be so much higher, guranteed.


ha ha fuck u wall st and obama, u fucking suck. hows ur plan doing now douchebag bernanke and obama?


u can bet ur ass though if this was october before the election, this number would never be this  low. now the real numbers are exposed and obama is a fucking fraud who should burn in hell.


this market better fucking be down 600 dow pts today, this number was so fucking bad, i am loving it. fuck u wall st and obama. ur plan is blowing up in ur faces u douchebags

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:49 | 3412356 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

The plan may be blowing up in Wall St./Obama's faces, but the US middle class will suffer colossal collateral damage. As per plan.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:45 | 3411875 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

it's a bird, it's a  plane, no, it's bend us all over bernake buying the dip on the s&p!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3411883 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

FORWARD... Print till it blows Benny...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:56 | 3411940 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

It's spelled MOARWARD.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:46 | 3411885 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    BTFD  The Bernak has your ass! /sarc

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:45 | 3411887 casaananda
casaananda's picture

Let's hope this is the beginning of better prices for the PM's. And miners.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:46 | 3411893 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture


DHS breaking out the hollow points, Bernanke running to the HP printer, I am taking all my dough (what little remains)  out of the bank today.

Yeah, and  FUCK YOU OBAMA, BERNANKE, CONGRESS AND THE YANKEES (Just thought I'd throw in the Yanks, cuz I hate them).

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411948 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

A toaster is just a death ray with a smaller power supply! As soon as it figures out how to tap into the main reactors, it will burn the world ...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:47 | 3411897 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Well, I guess we are not printing enough. Lets double down to 170 billion per month. That will surely make it all better. 

What a crock of Shit this country is turning into. But Jamie is still richer than most of us. He said so. 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:25 | 3412201 optimator
optimator's picture

Binny B. did say QE till the jobs numbers are better -- The more QE, the worse the employment numbers are so there is a connection isn't there Binny?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:57 | 3412408 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Looking at the chart of the labor work force participation rate, there seems to be a correlation between QE and a declining work force. Assuming a causitive inverse relationship between QE and a declining work force, if the work force drops low enough, the unemployment rate will get down to the targeted 6.5%. 


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3411901 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

below the lowest forecast of 100K

Another great forecast by Wall Street gurus.

Let's see now, how shall I transpose this performance on their latest buy recommendations?



Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:48 | 3411903 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


Millionaires Got $80 Million in Jobless Aid in Recession

“So many people are taking advantage of government support that they probably feel like, why shouldn’t they take advantage of it, too?”


Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3411905 G_T_A_44
G_T_A_44's picture

QE has absolutely Zero; Nada; Zip impact on employment/unemployment what-so-ever.

And, both fiscal and monetary policymakers Know this, yet, the stroke; jawbone persists.

The money/debt created flows to Wall St. and a few select others and that's where the road ends as Main St. is left in drought to die.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3411979 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

In all fairness, it is keeping some players fat.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3411906 short screwed
short screwed's picture

this shouldn't have been a surprise. The give away, JPM and GS estimates at +210k and +175k. I'm sure they've been busy putting their shorts on all week.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:49 | 3411910 monopoly
monopoly's picture

My God, check out bonds. Yikes.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:52 | 3411911 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Sorry, double post.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:50 | 3411912 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

If we close at a new Dow high tonight I'll throw in the towel and bet my pension on FB and JPM stock. "Thanks Rosengren"

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:51 | 3411923 Antifederalist
Antifederalist's picture

Bye, bye equity market.

Watching CNBC was amazing, the muppets were literally speechless when they heard the number.

Talk about cognitive dissonance.

Austin Goolsbee turns green: priceless.

It's game over folks, you fuckers are toast.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:57 | 3411941 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



The talking points are already out.  Per CNBC website:

The drop in the jobless rate was little more than a statistical anomaly...However, a broader measure of unemployment that counts the discouraged and underemployed also fell, declining to 13.8 percent from February's 14.3 percent


The equity markets are propped up by illusion...and the illusion is not dead.  Patience.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:00 | 3411973 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

The equity WHAT?? are propped up?! I am looking at this for quite a time now, and I am sure, that, wahtever it may be, it's NOT a "market". I don't know what it is, but probably it isn't even real at all ..

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:35 | 3412256 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Regrets.  The quote key is jammed on my keyboard...I wasn't sure if <open quote> rigged clownfest <close quote> would've translated.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:11 | 3411926 beachdude
beachdude's picture

Liesman, who missed projecting the number by over 100%,  just opined that if he were sitting on a window ledge, he would not jump on this number...

What would make him jump?

Update: then bleated a challenge at Rick Santelli to show him a report that shows that cutting govt spending would increase jobs, and Santelli told him to go back to Russia, basically calling Liesman a communist.

Now THAT'S entertainment. Squawk box at about 5:40 am PST.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:53 | 3411934 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Oh..oh my sides are splitting...oh Doomborg how you can make me laugh with this "headline" for "news"

Job Gains Slow as Unemployment Rate Falls to Four-Year Low

Who is the comedian there Dr. Goebbels?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:01 | 3411981 short screwed
short screwed's picture

lmao. no doubt the mantra today will be that "this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime."

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:02 | 3411993 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

That lifetime could be short ...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 08:55 | 3411936 ekm
ekm's picture

Toronto radio that I listen to every morning said yesterday that oil reserves in USA are at a 22 year high.


When oil is in the onshore and offshore tankers, not in truck's tankers or car's tankers, what do you expect?


Time to accept that QEs harm the economy by reducing overall trade due to shortage of energy, caused by QEs.


Two options:

1) Continue like this until starvation

2) Let a couple of primary dealers die by not providing money to them via QE, hence they'd default on their CDS payouts.


Let's see.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:05 | 3412026 e-recep
e-recep's picture

what's the cost of starving the common people to death to them? zilch. so option 1 is plausible. oil prices are high for quite some time now. they won't do anything about it. 

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