Payrolls Plunge To 88K, Biggest Miss Since December 2009, Participation Rate At New 30 Year Low

Tyler Durden's picture

So much for "open-ended QE driven recovery". Moments ago the March Non-farm payroll hit and it was a doozy, printing at 88K, below the lowest forecast of 100K, well below the expected number of 190K, and a tragedy compared to the February revised print of 268K (was 236K). This was the biggest miss to expectations since December 2009 and the worst print since June 2012. The unemployment rate declined to 7.6%, but this was due entirely to the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which declined by 20 bps to 63.3%, a new 30 year low.

And now the time to come up with excuses is here.



and its not just the US - Canada's employment collapsed the most since Jan 09...


From the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment
edged up in March (+88,000). Over the prior 12 months, employment growth
had averaged 169,000 per month. In March, employment increased in
professional and business services and in health care, while retail
trade employment declined. (See table B-1.)

Professional and
business services added 51,000 jobs in March. Over the past 12 months,
employment in this industry has grown by 533,000. Within professional
and business services, accounting and bookkeeping services added 11,000
jobs over the month, and employment continued to trend up in temporary
help services and in several other component industries.

growth in health care continued in March, with a gain of 23,000, similar
to the prior 12-month average. Within health care, employment increased
by 15,000 in ambulatory health care services, such as home health care,
and by 8,000 in hospitals.

Construction employment continued to
trend up in March (+18,000). Job growth in this industry picked up this
past fall; since September, the industry has added 169,000 jobs. In
March, employment continued to expand among specialty trade contractors 
(+23,000). Employment in specialty trade contractors has increased by
128,000 since September, with the gain about equally split between the
residential and nonresidential components.

Within leisure and
hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued
to trend up in March (+13,000). Over the past year, the industry added
262,000 jobs.

In March, retail trade employment declined by
24,000. The industry had added an average of 32,000 jobs per month over
the prior 6 months. In March, job declines occurred in clothing and
clothing accessories stores (-15,000), building material and garden
supply stores (-10,000), and electronics and appliance stores (-6,000).

government, U.S. Postal Service employment fell by 12,000 in March.
Employment in other major industries, including mining, manufacturing,
wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial
activities, state government, and local government, showed little change
over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on
private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.6 hours. The
manufacturing workweek decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and factory
overtime rose by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for
production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was
unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In March,
average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls,
at $23.82, changed little (+1 cent). Over the year, average hourly
earnings have risen by 42 cents, or 1.8 percent. Average hourly earnings
of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $20.03,
changed little (-1 cent) in March. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from
+119,000 to +148,000, and the change for February was revised from
+236,000 to +268,000.

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Edward Fiatski's picture

Stacking up for the next major war, ekm.

ekm's picture

Paper Cash and few coins of gold are mandatory to have on side.

Edward Fiatski's picture

As long as the sailors Trust in God, everything should be fine. :)

Can't wait for D-Day somewhere in China.

Super Broccoli's picture

it's Kim Jung whatever's fault !

DoneThis2Long's picture

Is Kim Dong the new Bush 43? </sarc>

dcj98gst's picture

This miss is worse than his basketball shots.

L_Conquistador's picture

Yah, but uhm, the NCAA tournament, Easter, and some spring break vacations occurred during March.  So, uh, yah, let's keep that in mind.  Perspective.

Bearwagon's picture

How about the perspective of buying somme beer later this afternoon? Doesn't look bad to me ...

adr's picture

I still like how you can add jobs when the total number of working people has declined by 3/4 of 1 million in three months.

It's like saying you made $70k in income because you put $50k on credit cards added to the $20k you actually made.

You really went $50k in debt, but hey government math is government math.

ekm's picture

I have a de-rater for gov data:


- China - derate by 50%

- USA - derate by 20-30%

- Canada - derate by 10-15%

- Germany - derate by 10-15%


The deraters tell me that zero jobs were created in USA.

backhandtopspinslicer's picture

Payroll? What the heck is that? Is it like food stamps?

grunk's picture
  • Deutsche Bank 160K
  • HSBC 174K
  • Goldman Sachs 175K
  • Citi 175K
  • Barclays Capital 175K
  • UBS 190K
  • Bank of America 200K
  • JP Morgan 210K
  • Your money would be safer in a Cypriot bank than with these guys.

    DoneThis2Long's picture

    Game over !!!!! Start your engines and head for the salt mine.

    CosmicDebris's picture

    Well here we go. I'm sensing some tipping points, not the least of which being big media finally doing their fucking jobs, even if it is only because it is in their faces and can't be ignored anymore. Just looked at CNN admitting MASS exits from the workfarce.  Dont recall them doing that too often.

    DoneThis2Long's picture

    They forgot how to, and that goes for those old enough to know there is more than sunshine blown up viewer's asses.

    Edward Fiatski's picture

    Hey, people are retiring.

    Edward Fiatski's picture




    Ned Zeppelin's picture

    Sounds like a well-timed and perfectly fine excuse to print for Ben - best to stay clear of shorting the equities once that signal is given.   Wonder when Ben will point out that the declining rate in employment to the extent atributable to a declining employment base is not an excuse to stop printing (How's this: "The unemployment rate is a flawed metric and we look to other data for indications of the health of the labor market, which point to continuing softness which is unacceptable.") There, wrote it for you.

    You KNOW that statement is coming.  Because - and hold on cause I know this is a shocker - the printing has nothing to do with the Phony Twin Mandates of employment, or price stability, or anything other than the need to buoy insolvent banking operations. 

    ak_khanna's picture

    Let me get this straight, more the people stop looking for jobs, the lower is the unemployment rate.

    So all we have to do is wait till no one is looking for a job because no jobs are available, then according to the current method of calculation we will have full employment. The fact that participation labor rate will go through the roof will have no consequences whatsoever on the economy.

    Politicians are best at barking crap. Economic calculations and interpretations are not exactly their strong points.

    ilovemilken's picture

    By 1 p.m. today somehow this will be turned into a postive story.

    haskelslocal's picture

    Hello? Mr. Kim?

    Yes this is POTUS.

    Say, I was wondering, would you mind rattling a few sabers, sorta speak, while we make some corrections to our blatently overstated economic indicators?

    The good news Mr. Kim is you'll get to look like the dream boy villian your daddy refused you to have. 

    Yes Yes, exactly! Just like Dennis Rodman! You'll be the bad guy who's not really a bad guy and then you'll get your $8 billion for your work.

    Sounds good?

    Okay, perfect!

     You make a bunch of noise and we'll distract the audiance.

    Cue CNBC/North Korea  saber rattling in 5, 4, 3, 2, .....

    SokPOTUS's picture

    Bullish for the Porn Industry.  More 'actresses' available for work.  Part-time by necessity.

    Should keep the SEC busy....