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Real March Unemployment Rate: 11.6%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today, we got the laughable news that the unemployment rate declined even as those not in the labor force grew by over 660,000, while the total civilian non-institutional population grew by just 167,000 to 244,995, meaning the actual labor force declined by 496,000. Which is precisely the issue: fudging the labor force participation rate is how the Obama administration has managed to maintain the myth the economy has grown under his leadership for the past 4+ years. It hasn't, and in fact if one renormalizes for the recent long-term average participation rate of 65.8%, one gets a very different number. How different? A difference that is now at a record compared to what is reported. As the chart below shows, a "renormalization" process indicates a massive and record 4% difference between the reported unemployment rate of 7.6%, and what the real unemployment rate is assuming normal growth of the labor force, which in March was 11.6%, up from 11.3% in February, and the highest since August 2012 when it was 11.7%. More importantly, as the real unemployment chart shows, the economy has not improved by one bit since 2009!

 


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Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment DawgAss
DawgAss's picture

He lied?........What a FUCK!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

No worries, HuffPo and all the other Federal Propaganda outlets are on it...blaming the sequester, no less.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment AU5K
AU5K's picture

For many low skilled workers, its simply better to be on disability (+medicaid!) than minimum wage + no health insurance.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

WELCOME TO THE CESSPOOL

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Iceberg? That's not an iceberg son, now  go fetch me a life-preserver...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:48 | Link to Comment AssFire
AssFire's picture

Last month:$85,000,000,000 in QE/88,000=$965,909 per job,

so 965,909x90,000,000 without jobs=$86,181,818,181,818. till full employment

it is only 1022 months away! or 85 years.

Let me tell you now, QE is NOT about jobs.

Funny how that 86 trillion is the same as the total unfunded liability of the Goobermint- wow simple math.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 13:41 | Link to Comment nbsharma
nbsharma's picture

Very nice!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

Agreed, nice, but you're not accounting for inflation.  

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

What is funny is the implication that lying is unique to this or any president. Jimmy Carter tried to tell the truth a little bit 35 years ago and history still hasn't forgiven him.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Carter is a serial liar. The good Christian, lol.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

Jimmy Carter was one of election watchers when Hugo Chavez came to power. He noted that the election had been fair. He did note over the years that followered how Chavez set himself up as Prez for life. 

I think Jimmy Carter would sell my children into slavery becuase in his mind it is the right thing to doo. F**K Jimmy Carter.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:52 | Link to Comment BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Sadly, democratic elections don't always elect leaders committed to democracy (Germany 1932 comes to mind). From what I have read, the majority of Venezuelans seemed to support Chavez. To avoid hyperbole I won't mention the troubling state of democracy in the US. History is full of examples of how people are way more likely to vote for a demogogue that a pragmatist.

So I can't agree that Carter demonstrated dishonesty as an election observer in Venezuela.

The main criticisms of Carter are that he wasn't aggressive enough militarily, he allowed Panama to control the canal in their country, he approved a botched rescue mission in Iran mostly undermined by weather, he was in favour or energy conservation, he appointed an inflation hawk to the Fed and that he did not pander enough to his democratic base. He was highly undermined in Iran by elements of his own country's intelligence service, so like Kennedy, he was clearly naive about how much the president can go against the CIA or the mafia, and he paid the price. Summation: not Machiavellian enough for the job.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:20 | Link to Comment tbone654
tbone654's picture

isn't it hilarious?  CNBlowC AND FOX talking about it this morning... and missing it by a mile...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment tbone654
tbone654's picture

it's all sequester...  I think they blamed Japan on sequester too...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment tbone654
tbone654's picture

we're just japan -10years ...  they (JPY) used to just pass equities around among the banks and keep everything afloat...  The problem is no one realizes you don't have capitalism any more...  manufacturing requires investment in materials, etc. and the banks make big money on those loans...  without the need for industrial loans, they have to feed themselves off depositors...  it's been said here a number of times, that we have to change to knowledgeism rather than capitalism...  and succumb to the fact that we just don't automatically get JOBS from knowledge...  you get jobs supporting industry...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Atlas_shrugging
Atlas_shrugging's picture

Can we now have a serious discussion re: trillion dollar coin?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Didn't you mean: Trillion YEN coin?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

quadrillion yen!!!!!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

I stand corrected, thanks LOP

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:50 | Link to Comment 1000 splendid suns
1000 splendid suns's picture

QUADRILLYEN!!!!!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:37 | Link to Comment nicoacademia
nicoacademia's picture

What comes after quadrillion?

Best Answer - Chosen by Voters Quintillion. Here is more information than you wanted...

Billion has 9 zeros
Trillion has 12 zeros
Quadrillion has 15 zeros
Quintillion has 18 zeros
Sextillion has 21 zeros
Septillion has 24 zeros
Octillion has 27 zeros
Nonillion has 30 zeros
Decillion has 33 zeros
Undecillion has 36 zeros
Duodecillion has 39 zeros
Tredecillion has 42 zeros
Quattuordecillion has 45 zeros
Quindecillion has 48 zeros
Sexdecillion has 51 zeros
Septendecillion has 54 zeros
Octodecillion has 57 zeros
Novemdecillion has 60 zeros
Vigintillion has 63 zeros
Googol has 100 zeros. 
Centillion has 303 zeros (except in Britain, where it has 600 zeros)
Googolplex has a googol of zeros (i say Google Japan)

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:39 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"you get jobs supporting industry..."  -  yes, but real production requires real inputs.  What everyone needs to be fucking honest about is that real inputs have real fucking limits.  The honest converstation that continues to be ignored is the issue of growth.  Wake the fuck up, humanity isn't just another ponzi, it's the ponzi.  I often wonder if the world got it's act together and everyone supported industry by becoming a good producer, I wonder precisely who the earth would be selling it's products to and what this other planet would be offering in exchange of real value to replace all the resources and energy we used to make those products?  Stupid fucking sheep.  As for all the financial "products" of mass destruction we have now, a banker prints a couple zeros in a few minutes and you work for your entire life to pay them back.  "winning".

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

I was just watching Fox business. Stuart Varney had Austin Goolsbee on and he would not allow him to suggest that the sequester caused the March decline in jobs since any job cuts occured in April.  Its obvious its the current policies and the rise in taxes at the end of FY12

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Chump
Chump's picture

It's serious, he had to lie.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

nothing a little money printing can't fix!!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment tbone654
tbone654's picture

we print because the big banks need more sources of income...  without an industrial/capitalist economy to lend too and make huge profits from...  no business needs their money, so they must rob depositors somehow, and for that you need to print more money and create bogus bubble building investments...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

the Obama administration has managed to maintain the myth

 

i think not

 

 

got PMs?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

This on a Non POMO day

Who's in charge of scheduling?  Burkhalter.....

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

Sympathies to the unemployed - but I want that deer on the screen today.

Its been a trial holding short strategies this last 10 days - a venison supper would be welcome.

Probably closes green anyway - just in anticipation of next weeks POMO extravaganza.

 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

I sure as shit don't roll on Shabbis.  Shomer Shabbis!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:57 | Link to Comment EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Walter, get over here and pick me up or I'm off the fucking team

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:35 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I'm pretty sure the japs are in charge of managing markets on non pomo days no ?

Don't they work together on these things ?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Roandavid
Roandavid's picture

Krugman, you moron ...... explain please.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment Badabing
Badabing's picture

 @Roandavid

Yesterdays Bitcoin thread had a remark from our one and only Dr Paul Krugman or maybe an imposter or MDB who knows?

What he said was “Can you buy a cup of coffee with Bitcoin?”

In response several posters insured him that, WHY,,,, yes you can!, And even posted the URLs.

In my quasi defense for the Federal Reserve note I’ll add this.

  The dollar can buy a cup of coffee. Back in the last depression around 1929 lots of people lost everything while the big banks bought up everything for pennies on the dollar. The phrase “hay buddy can you spare a dime for a cup of coffee” became a phrase icon for the poor. More important is the point, a dime for a cup of coffee, a dime for a cup of coffee, a dime for a cup of coffee, a dime for a cup of coffee, A DIME FOR A CUP OF COFFEE,,,, get it yet Mr. Doctor of econemy. Mr. Nobel prise in economic science. A DIME FOR A CUP OF COFFEE. You dick. Bitcoin will not do that!

by the way the NFP numbers are as fake as my avatar

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment 88888
88888's picture

So much for a great rotation lol. Look at emini haha http://tradingvix.blogspot.com/

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

But if we hadn't added $6 trillion more to our debt and $3 trillion more onto the Fed balance sheet, it would have been -- The Same!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

One of O'Bummer's apparatchik's on CNBC (Kreuger) blaming the weak jobs report on the sequester.

Puppets and shadows, fakers and takers, muzak and scented circulated air, Pavlov, Pavlov.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:24 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Quick, more QE. The $85 billion monthy of QE has helpd so much, Not!

Let's just do a lot more dollar trashing.

The US is Japan only the US doesn't have the savers to buy the debt. 

Watch Japan go off the cliff (happening now) and the US follow.

What does Bernanke and the Fed do with the debt???

It makes it disappear.

9 TRILLION Dollars Missing from Federal Reserve....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nE3BmhhWFFQ

Does any country want to hold US debt when it plays these accounting games?

 

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment jpc578
jpc578's picture

Haven't you heard? This is all because of baby boomers retiring. It has nothing to do with the economy. Move along. Nothing to see here.

All kidding aside, even if you use a 60 month moving average of the LFPR the unemployment rate is about 9.5 percent or two percentage points above the stated rate.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:22 | Link to Comment irie1029
irie1029's picture

It is laughable and the sheeple believe the MSM such as Bloomberg... I just wanna puke.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

thank god, less overhead for the corporations, send her up!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Damn ....what is it with that accursed 1565 on the S&P? Ben you clearly need to print moar.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Good to see you, Dr.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:46 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Thanks. It's good to be seen. I'm spending some family time on the sunny coast of Florida. It's hard to stay away from the Hedge though.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Don't you ever dare to stay away! You're one of the main reason for me to finally register at the hedge ...

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:42 | Link to Comment GraveyardSpiral
GraveyardSpiral's picture

I concur.  Sent you a question on another post.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:29 | Link to Comment ZZR600
ZZR600's picture

Easy solution, start a new war on the Korean peninsular. That will create jobs in armaments and the re-arming and reconstruction after the devastation of the region.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 13:05 | Link to Comment UserZero
UserZero's picture

Obozo needs to finish coaxing the Norks to nuke our one nominally prosperous State first. Two birds with one boom.

And I don't mean with a small device carried over our air-tight southern border.

No, I don't.

Really.

'cuz that would be impossible.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:33 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Well, the dollar is tanking and the Euro is rising, so that will help with the big names reporting earnings next week. Nothing like restating foreign earnings in a stronger currency.

One also wonders what one time charges will be thrown out this time to create EPS beats.

Can capitalism function without consumption? Can people earn money without jobs? Can housing recover with no residents? Can you build homes without actually using lumber, copper, and steel? Can something with no physical representation or store of value exponentially increase in value?

The answers seem so simple, an overwelming no. Yet somehow in the new normal we are lead to believe the answers are yes.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Marley
Marley's picture

What is unemployement?  I thought eveyone was just leaching off your money.

Originally the ego includes everything, later it detaches from itself the external world. - Frued

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:38 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

People don't react to reality, but to their imagination of it. That should explain enough.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Oh God, Pisani on CNBC saying "this is just a breather" about the DOW down 152 this morning.

Look at the 10 YR Treasury rate Bob, it's telling you something.

Employment sucks, there is no fucking recovery, we are being bled to death!

And oh yeah, the ECB, the IMF, and the FED think it's O.K. to steal your money!

Jesus.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This also leads to another great point:

The Fed's goal with QE is to "pump" the employment numbers, since they are so tied to bond yields.

They really have no interest in employing the economy and creating wealth and opportunity for the common man.  QE is ALL about satisfying the bond vigilantes and the Market. 

It's a scam, and they won't stop printing.  Ever.

Reminds me of when Tony Montana was emptying the clip at the end of "Scarface":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT_D4NC2tBE

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment hivekiller
hivekiller's picture

No it's not 11.6%. It's 23%.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:49 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

What does the number matter, the whole would knows that 7.6% is laughable!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

What are the real unemployment number totals? 16-20%?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment PierreLegrand
PierreLegrand's picture

Calculated Risk sez its all good.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:44 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

The "economy" is indicated by the numbers in the DOW. You are talking about peoples lives, who the fuck cares about that?

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:45 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Krugman keeps saying we are in a depression. He's right about that. Everyone else is lying about it.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Well, we could get out of a depression if we adopted his ideas. LOL

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:47 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

God damnit I should have bought more Gold yesterday!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Me too.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:43 | Link to Comment nicoacademia
nicoacademia's picture

umm "should've bought more EURJPY GBPJPY yesterday."

what gold does... that does 3x more!

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

Just look at the Walmart empty shelf story.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

I wanna know where MDB is, and why is he not here to defend his Messiah?

This economy is a 92 year old emphysema patient on life support, and Obama wants you to think it's about ready to run a marathon.

This President is a clueless fucking Marxist bumpkin, and if you have at least a high school education and you still voted for him, you're a fucking clueless bumpkin too.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:27 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Someone claimed MDB is a handle for PK. I'd like to know how they determined that bit of information.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Ouch!

Anything over 11% makes my bunions hurt.

Fri, 04/05/2013 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

The saddest part is that if people would take their minds of zombies, sports, and Kardashians for just a moment and notice what is going on around them, they would see without a doubt that no matter where you look in this nation (except for Washington DC), things are getting worse.

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