US Macro Data Plunges Most In 10 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

The last two weeks have not been pretty for the 'it's different this time' crowd. Day after day has brough miss after miss in macro-economic data for the US; from PMIs to NFPs, no matter how hard you try, there is not even enough for an 'anecdotal' strategist to pin his BTFD thesis on. Quantitatively, the US macro surprise index has seen its biggest 10-day drop in 10 months, completely reversing all the 'seasonally-adjusted' difference from the 2011 'Deja-Vu' market and macro behavior. So with the first pillar of bullishness (macro data is 'supportive'), it is up to earnings (but but but profitability is at highs) to hold up the market - good luck with that.


Biggest 2-week drop in macro data in 10 months...


is reverting all the 'seasonally adjusted' green shoots that made this time different from last year...


and once again, just for fun, someone explain how the market is not solely dependent upon the Fed for this to occur?


Charts: Bloomberg

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ACP's picture

OK, it's late on Friday, you're totally preaching to the choir. Have some tequila shots.

xtop23's picture

Now that IS something that is self-sustaining.

Hello Mr. Casa Nobles

derek_vineyard's picture

by the time the dow hits 17,500

the 10 year will be 0.00%

Uber Vandal's picture

Perhaps -5.00% because people want the safety of the full faith and credit of the United States.


markmotive's picture

Our reality is highly levered.

Japan is undertaking an extremely precarious policy. This could be the policy that proves Keynesianism is dead. The world knows this and I think markets are getting scared that reality will bite.

Niall Ferguson on Keynesianism in Japan:

A Nanny Moose's picture

Full faith and credit in the ability of the US Feral Gummint to convince US taxpayers to allow the expropriation of their wealth. Interesting. Back to my beer.

nmewn's picture

1800 Silver Reserve...mmm ;-)

tkoski6600's picture

1800 Silver Reserve, no more.  Now it's Steel Reserve 211.

nmewn's picture

lol...I know what you mean.

About this time last week I was sittin in Bubba Gumps on Johns Pass getting lubed up for a special occasion the next night. I tried to be moderate (really I did)...but after one...well, ya know ;-)

ACP's picture

Bubba Gumps...haven't been there for a while...the one in Monterey. Damn, now I wanna go.

Misson Accomplished: Thread jacked and steered towards booze and heavily battered, deep fried shrimp.

nmewn's picture

America Dammit!!!

I had fun flipping the signs around from green to red ;-)

hairball48's picture

Johns Pass in St Pete Beach? I lived on Treasure Island 1966-7 61 81st ave. TI

All that was blown away in a later hurricane :)

McMolotov's picture

Ha, due to my extreme frugality, I'm enjoying something called Caliber vodka. $10 from Walmart.

Smells like rubbing alcohol. Tastes like rubbing alcohol. Quite possibly is rubbing alcohol.

onewayticket2's picture

Let's leave Kitty Dukakis out of this discussion....burp.

ebworthen's picture

Is electro-convulsive shock therapy available over the counter yet?

You know, like those portable defibrillators?

I'd like to clear the calculator.

smlbizman's picture

dude , does it have a flip top lid and a frosted plastic bottle? funny

nmewn's picture

It was a special occasion, I thought I'd be taking it home with me cuz nobody was hittin it...having thoughts of dread & delight at the same

Then...I got a little help from my friends and we drained it ;-)

W74's picture

Sure there's no horse meat in there?

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


Ha, due to my extreme frugality, I'm enjoying something called Caliber vodka. $10 from Walmart.

Caliber® vodka, from the makers of Colt.45 Malt Liquor.

Smells like rubbing alcohol. Tastes like rubbing alcohol. Quite possibly is rubbing alcohol.

Caliper® brake cleaner, from the makers of Caliber® vodka.

McMolotov's picture

It clears pipes better than Liquid-Plumr, and Cousin Jed says it makes a great bear repellent.

stocktivity's picture

Nothing matters...earnings start next week...Alcoa Monday. The cooked earnings this quarter will propel to new highs. It's STILL all Bullshit!

Room 101's picture


"Obama budget to take aim at wealthy IRAs"

I'm sure this revelation will surprise ZHers. /s

(H/T Drudge)

ebworthen's picture

A U.S. "financial stability" levy can't be far behind; first for the wealthy, then the rule stick for wealth will be lowered, until anyone with money in an I.R.A. will be considered "able" to contribute to "save the country".

W74's picture

I wonder when masses of 18-26 year olds will be "able" enough to "save the country" with another draft when we go into Iran.

smlbizman's picture

room 101, ...900,000,000.00 a year and "fair"....and taxing those disgusting low life smokers again, another way of punishing the rich........ what more could you want...dat right dare is leadership my friend....

Cdad's picture

"...someone explain how the market is not solely dependent upon the Fed for this to occur?"

I'd like to be able to answer in an affirming way.  However, since the DOJ and the SEC are simply not prosecuting criminals within the financial services industry [see Jon Corzine out and about, day trading and the like], and since almost no one in Congress has called out Ben Bernanke for what he is [maker of economic wastelands for the 99%, and a true Banana Tree Republic fan], it just does not seem to matter...that the country is undergoing a fascist coup.  Let's face it, that is what it is.

Interesting thing is....average Joe seems pretty clear on what is making the stock market go up...and remains uninterested in equities...because he won't have the inside information on when Ben just might change his mind...and the entire thing suddenly collapses [see Cyprus].  

I think the answer is Ben is jacking the stock market, Congress is still spending money that can never be repaid, and the two parties don't give a shit how it all looks...because no one has tried to stop their thieving ways.   

Additional:  Oh, and the CEOs of publicly traded companies are laughing all the way to the bank with it all, too, [see insiders selling to beat the band while announcing corporate stock buy backs, further hollowing out the "value" of stocks] lest they think their role in this wealth transfer has gone unnoticed by us average Joes.

ebworthen's picture

Some dude on P.B.S. blaming it on the "digital economy".

Oh yeah, all that off-shored production and the parasitic crony capitalist corporations wouldn't have anything to do with it.  Um-hum.

Sure, idiots scanning and bagging their own groceries and items for ZERO discount (WTF?) doesn't help, but c'mon, drop in the bucket.  I go to the human beings myself.

At least in the transition to self-serve gas you got a discount for pumping it yourself.  Cheap ass S.O.B.'s.

Hey, if the digital economy is here let's just all go on disability - or as much money as the FED seems to have just send us monthly checks so we can shop online.

I'll scan and bag my own groceries if the FED sends me and everyone else $5,000/month, sure.

smlbizman's picture

i always go to the 1 cashier  they have....than i tell them , i do it to try and save their job...they look at me like im fucking nuts,......and the other assholes at the self serve , waitng for the cashier to come and unfreeze their purchase...we do not have any chance what so ever....they have won,. ..  welcome to the USA ...."the most illiterate society in the world" has just dawned on me some possible evidence....we do not protest or throw molotovs or blow up tax offices etc  like they do overseas....this isnt because we are so civil, it is because we have know idea we are being ass raped day in and day out....example; a friend of mine, an engineer, who has earned patents,  his wife, masters and phd......they think i am out of my mind....i dont know how many zerohedgers there are, but take 5% off of the total and thats our army...i could be wrong... 


ebworthen's picture


The people I know are "proud" that they scan and bag their own groceries for no discount; they are "independent" and "self-sufficient". 

WTF?  It's like a Cow or Pig that walks itself through the gate of the slaughterhouse proudly without struggle.

And since it's tax season, people who talk about their "refund" as if it was a gift of some kind.

Yes, even the otherwise intelligent and educated are some of the worst.

The working guys at the pool hall drinking PBR are more aware.

Ham-bone's picture

one look in the mirror pretty well represents the ZH army...

HardAssets's picture

smlbizman - yep the banksters/gangsters and their paid whore politicians rob us like crazy because they think Average Joe Citiizen is dumber than a box of rocks, and for the most part, theyre right. The 'highly educated' ones are some of the worse. Theyre so very good at 'learning' what's wrong. Most of them are specialists in a very narrow field & completely ignorant of the Big Picture. Mere errand boys&girlls serving the New World Order . . . and completely unaware of that.

Do any bit of research and its crystal clear that the low level of mental capapcity found in the general population is no accident. The teaching of logic/argument, true history, and the foundational priniciples of the country have been attacked purposely since the late 1800s-early 1900s.

Its not all over, but its likely that people will have to go through a Lot of pain before they become motivated enough to wake themselves up from their state of relative comfort.

Yen Cross's picture

     I'm speechless. every comment  ^  Nailed it.

q99x2's picture

"Day after day has brough miss after miss in macro-economic data for the US; from PMIs to NFPs, no matter how hard you try, there is not even enough for an 'anecdotal' strategist to pin his BTFD thesis on."

Well then Fuck it; then we'll just have to Nuke N. Korea and then if it doesn't get any better we'll nuke Iran too. And we'll see if Pakistan would like some of it. Maybe Austin Tx. Fuck it. Just Fuck it Fuck it Fuck it.

W74's picture

Here's my plan, I'm going to do a little test tomorrow:  It's been sunny here and the weather is clearly transitioning to spring without any hickups so far.

I want to get a sense of how the economy is doing overall, so I'm going to take a trip up to the local Lowes to see how active it is, and then I'll loop out and back down around to Home Depot and conduct the same experiment.

If either or both places are dead then I'll know things are fucked, after all Saturday (I worked at one of those places as a kid) was the busiest day of the week by far.  You could easily have 350-500K in sales on a Saturday and only 80-150K during weekdays.

I think I'm going to shoot for going from 1-3p.m.  That was usually a fairly busy period if memory serves.  I'm also going to take a peek around to see what people are putting in their carts and will be taking note of employee friendliness as well as overall training and acumen.

Would anyone at ZH be genuinely interested in the results?  This is by no means scientific, but I am a pretty observant guy (after all, would we be here if we weren't?).

NoDebt's picture

Sure.  Let's make sure we know what area of the country we're talking about, rough idea of the "affluence" of the area and the weather that day.  

You can always go talk to the manager, too.  Tell him you're doing a little research and ask if you could get his opinion on a few questions.

Be bold.  Don't be afraid to ask.  Most times people will be more than happy to tell you more than you ever thought they would.

W74's picture

Best people to talk to in those stores are the guys at the "pro desk."  They not only have to make sales, but have to generally know most of the products in the store, and occasionally design plans for projects.  Occasionally you'll get a guy in electrical who once worked as an electrician or a plumber who once did plumbing....sometimes.

I'm not afraid to ask questions or talk to people in any way.  Hell I talked to the guy running for Senate at my polling place (Republican which in Maryland means you're a dead man walking) and just had a normal conversation with him: "Tell me why I should vote for you instead of Sobbani (Independent)" and he did.  My wife who's shy as hell is flabbergasted that I have the ability to "talk to strangers".

Lore's picture

You might have better luck talking to middle management. The boss in a chain store is usually reluctant to share company intel -- should be, anyway. You'll almost never hear a negative report from small business owners, no matter how bad things are. You might as well try to coax hard truth from a real estate board, or wine from a stone. But good luck. Sometimes, you find someone chatty, especially at the end of the day, especially if they're sure you aren't a competitor.

smlbizman's picture

w74...white marsh area the good ole days like 5yrs ago...there were 6-8 guys at the pro the time they each had a 10k daily sales there is 1 guy and no , i would safely say that within a 10 mile radius of me i could hit 6 h. depots and 1 maybe 2 lowes...and yes the repubs can win 12 of our 15 districts and lose....however if we think about the city and its occupants, thinking that most really dont care about voting ...why should they they "gots" their phone...which further convinces me the magnitude of fraud in these elections.....

itstippy's picture

Swing by the bunks of "lumber"and see what they're selling as 2X2s & 2X4s these days.  You'll laugh or cry or both.

Weekends suck!  They doubled the size of my local Menards and filled the new floor space with bulk household products, shitty "food", and plastic toys & crap.  Now when I stop to pick up some sticks & wire & cement & hardware for a weekend project I have to navigate crowds of slow-moving overweight women in stretch pants with kids in tow.  Honest to God, they're stocking cases of "Fruit Juicy Juice" and "Summer Fun Slip & Slide" kits in the middle of the ductwork department.

Menards is trying to survive in a tough economic environment.  It's painfully obvious that the Home Improvement market isn't enough any more.

smlbizman's picture

all these stores cemented their future when they relentlessly went after the small contractor.  making it really difficult for companys that tried to operate in a sustainable way.   the desperate, beer drinking home improvement guy, decides to be a contractor for the depot because he cant obtain work on his own ....being paid slave wages with no benis...once again people being propped up instead of allowing to fail...this puts pressure on properly run companys to lower their pricing.  thus weaking their sustainability. yeah, install a hot water heater for 125.00 labor than maybe grab a hauling fee. with this in place, one call back and u are in the hole.... and after the 1099 and a call back here , a call back there what have they really made, not much....

Spitzer's picture

Bill Orilly just had an investing segment on his show and he had Ben Steine and some lady on. It was classic. The lady said gold was at nose bleed levels and Ben said that it doesn't matter how much money the Fed prints. The lady recommended jumping into the bond bubble and Ben reccomneds all stocks.

Did these hopless retards just call the top of the bond bubble and the bottom in gold at the same time ?

Yen Cross's picture

    I caught the segment.  It would be nice to see Mr. O'Reilly take the time to financially educate, before he opines.

 Ben Stein is the last person I would sequestor for financial advice. ( BenStein used to be Republican)

NoDebt's picture

Ben Stein used to write political speeches (I think he started with Nixon, but don't quote me on that).  He's not an investment guy.  Why you would ever listen to him for investment advice is beyond me. 

He should have stuck with being Ferris Bueller's social studies teacher. 

Cdad's picture

Mr. O'Reilly is financially illiterate.   At least he was when I last watched his show some two years ago.  Has his #1 rated news show figured out that The Financial Story IS the Federal Reserve and what is doing just now?  I doubt it, but go ahead and correct me if I am wrong...because I threw my television in the dumpster...and anyway, watching that guy is simply grating.  

Yen Cross's picture

  Bill O'Reilly = Financial  Cheddar Cheese.  

TuesdayBen's picture

Bill O'reilly =

Yen Cross's picture

 Willy O'Reilly needs to do his 'homework' .  Has zero financial prowess. ( his underlings) possibly?

Spitzer's picture

None of this is true guys

Bill Orilly gets it. He actually does understand that the US dollar will crash

Ham-bone's picture

sorry spritzer...all Bill gets is ratings.  be controversial, be something.  NOW, if you sat down w/ Bill, he's probably a bright guy who "gets it" but the tv persona (if that's what it is) cares not one iota except for rilling up the troops.

BTW & Amazingly, MSNBC has taken over the title of most slanted news station from Fox...and they have left no doubt and in fact make Fox look "fair & balanced" by comparison.  Ouch.