The general mantra from mainstream analysts and economists since the first of the year is that the "economy is set to finally turn the corner." The premise of the assumption is that the Fed's continued monetary actions, and now specific targeted goals of suppressed inflation and targeted employment, is going to push the economy into "escape velocity."
Normally, I devote my writings each day to pointing out the data trends behind the headlines and discussing my personal views on the economic, and financial, implications relating to what the data analysis reveals. Today, I leave the analysis up to you.
The following series of charts displays several important economic variables ranging from incomes and production to economic growth. The question for you to answer: "Is the economy about to boom OR has it peaked for the current economic cycle?"
As you look at each chart below compare what you are visualizing versus what you are being told.
Wages & Salaries
Incomes are the lifeblood of the economy. In order for consumers to consume (which makes up roughly 70% of the economy currently) wages must rise at a rate to support increases in consumption.

Consumer Spending:
As state above, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) comprise about 70% of the gross domestic product calculation. As PCE goes - so goes the economy.

Production and Manufacturing:
The chart below is the STA Economic Output Composite Index which is an index comprised of the Chicago Fed National Activity Report, ISM Composite, several Fed regional manufacturing surveys, Chicago ISM PMI, and the NFIB Small Business Survey. This is a very broad measure of the economy.

Employment:
The chart below shows both the seasonally adjustment employment levels compared to a 12-month moving average of the non-seasonally adjusted data.

GDP:

Conclusion
Regardless of your personal views about the economy, the political environment or the markets - what is important is to separate emotion from investing. While the Fed's continued liquidity injections have sharply boosted asset prices in recent months the bond market, as shown in the chart below, has continued to show a preference of safety over risk. With rates plunging in recent weeks the indictment from the bond market concurs with the longer term data that the economy remains at risk.

While the stock market continues to ramp up due to the Fed's interventions the disconnect between the markets, and the real underlying economic fundamentals, will ultimately resolve itself. I am not suggesting that a crash is looming as none of this data suggests that a recession is imminent, however, the data also does not support the mainstream view that the economy is set to accelerate or that the markets are entering into the next great secular bull market.
The reality is that the economy is continuing to muddle along through the greatest monetary experiment in modern monetary history. However, what is becoming more readily apparent is that the impact from these ever expanding programs continue to support Wall Street and the financial system but fails to improve the diminished state of Main Street.
That Treasury rates versus S&P levels tells it all; Trillions of FED liquidity has done nothing but disconnect the markets from reality.
I agree that rates are signalling a correction for equities.
But the Fed has done a great job to move the economy towards growth; now it is time to move faster and add additional stimulus.
Growth is a Jewish word for debt...............
Equating Jews to success is flattering, but anti-semitic.
Finance is largely a WASP game. You are a fool if you comment on this and haven't studied the history of Wall Street.
whoever you are, im amused. ty.
One would need to have a Ph Dee in economics to NOT see the lie that there IS NO RECOVERY nor has there ever been.
I have a PhD and I can see that.
Theft of my stored labor is THE problem. How do you justify printing more money and destroying the dollar, which amounts to storing one's labor in a loaf of bread, a.k.a Money, to be recognized as money MUST have STABILITY!
Gold is money, everything else is credit.
sic J,P. Morgan, circa 1906
Who ever you are, "You Are A Douche Bag"!
Quick, call the ADL
Don't worry, we're always watching. Always.
Not buying it..please retread history
Vanderbilt, Purdue, Morgan, Rockefeller, Whitney, Bush, Pierce, Forbes, Carnegie, Ford, Astor, Weyerhauser, Gould, and others; none of them jewish, all of them WASPs.
Henry Ford??.......Didn't he start 'Bank of Jewmerica'?
Bank of America was founded by an Italian, and Ford was a Nazi sympathiser.
Dr. Krugman you need some serious(un-doctrinated) history lessons. Your distortion of facts is epic! By the way, BAC can go fuck themselves!
Henry Ford wrote....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_International_Jew
this is very old, but true, news. the operative reality is the last, say, three decades or so, say since 1982. the ethnic makeup of the masters of the universe is a bit different, especially at the government/finance interface. without the existence of israel it wouldn't be so pernicious but then what would?
Yeah, I've got to agree with Doc Krugman (Jesus, I never thought that would happen)on the Ford thing. He, like a very, very large group of Americans at that timme was anti-semetic. There were Jewish banks on Wall street at that time but only a few. If you were Jewish there was no way you would have been hired at a major bank that wasn't started by Jewish Americans.
Hitler's personal pilot and driver drove a Ford. "Used to piss Hitler off" actually. Flew a trimotor as well! Whatever one thinks of Ford you presuppose he didn't want to win. The record speaks clearly otherwise in this matter. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Yt_LyHJEAw hmmm. there's an idea "build a car for a couple hundred bucks." try doing that with the military industrial complex today. "and here's the Agent of Victory": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willow_Run "my God he was a racist!" well, no one will ever call him a loser. this guy SAVED America...and is STILL doing so. as a buddy of mine who's family was from Ulm once said "sometimes you need a little Nazi in ya."
According to a few books that I have read, Rockefeller, and some other American banksters, were initially financed by Roth-schild.
+ 1 FED has done a terrible job! But i know u already know that because the additional stimulus remark doesn't make any sense and has instead the greater effect of freaking people out and going "what!" "crazy Krugman is back." and "kill krugman." I look forward to reading the mass infusion of insults likely to follow. he hee.
"now it is time to move faster and add additional stimulus."
Yes, moar stimuli pie makes my eyes light up.
What you refer to as stimulus is in fact anything but - it is more drugs for the addict. While it suceeds in delaying the pain of recovery it also prevents recovery. It has propped up corrupt, incompetent and inefficient use of resources which undermines and deincentivises the hardwork required for constructive destruction and inovation. It will itself be remembered as a momental work of incompence and cronyism - though I am sure that you would argue that the fault is in the implementation of this masterwork of genius which common people simply cannot understand.
Lower rates are signalling a correction? how so? i can understand why HIGHER rates could signal a correction but i'm struggling with lower rates signalling that. perhaps you mean lower rates are signalling lower GROWTH and therefore "will impact earnings and thus put pressure on stock prices"...but i know of no metric that states "low interest rates are back for equities." indeed isn't the value of said earnings rising provided you pay a dividend on said monies? and also isn't it the GOVERNMENT that provides stimulus not the Fed? or has the "law of scarcity" been repealed in your world too? in other words "the first priority is to establish priorities", yes, yes? As was famously observed by PJ O'Rourke "Democrats are Santa Claus and Republicans are God." And indeed his book "Parliament of Whores" ages well does it not? As in "where the phuck is my healthcare? And what happened to the last 400 billion we spent on infrastructure?" but i digress. you were saying? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Yt_LyHJEAw
...economy is set to finally turn the corner.
Yeah, into a blind, dark alley.
It looks like all the CNBS-ers are working from the late 2010 template Tyler. I purposely saved this piece of trash, for this occasion. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000075257
Buy Gold & Silver
Tyler, I want to get your attention about something - this guy posted a video on youtube regarding cycle analysis of the Dow.
http://youtu.be/ugnEGYPwx2M
He prices the Dow in bitcoins, then notes a cycle that appears to be in the chart, correlated to bitcoin upmoves.
The chart at 15:14 in the video is what I'm talking about - apparently this infers that the next major Dow crash that everyone has been waiting for will occur in May of this year.
Classic "Sell in may and go away", but would be interesting if this actually hit this time.
Bitcoin is a trade like anything else that trades on the markets. It will rise and fall just like Apple stock, or tulip bulbs, or, gold.
Bit krugmans. They're a dime a dozen.
@fake Dr Paul Krugman
Missing the point, just like your namesake would. See you in May :)
You think you have found a holy grail, but like the gold bugs are finding out, there is no sure trade.
" there is no sure trade". Spoken from the chosen one. Dr. Paul Krugman.
Instead of looking for specific trades what needs to be done is getting the economy back on track.
You guys are running around, trying to fleece the system while the system loses what growth components people like Ben Bernanke are trying to put in place.
And what are those "growth components"?
My growth component smells like cheezey seaweed.
Dr K, let me ask you TWO questions? What is the VALUE of $1 American FIAT dollar? How is printing FIAT dollars out of thin air in the TRILLIONS worldwide solving our economic problems, or, if you were in a deep hole and wanted to get out, would you dig it even deeper?
Ancillary: We are in deep debt, yet you say we need to go deeper into debt to get out of debt? I think you will have a serious problem answering either question with honesty.
I believe the correct term is counterfeiting and NOT printing. They each carry a much different penalty for sure. One sounds innocuous while the other doesn't.
Perfect CustomersMan . . . and exactly WHAT is being counterfeited? Ans: Your Labor. The government is handing a fake dollar to people (one for which no labor has been assigned) and trading it to you for your labor, i.e. we're all getting nothing for something, which makes every producer a slave to the counterfeiter who will eventually buy the world with other people's labor. Not only are the blacks not free, NO-ONE is free when there's a counterfeiter in the room.
Hey Paul, what is the difference in Bitcoins created out of thin air and dollars printed with no monetary backing? NONE. Don't give me any "full faith and credit backing of the US government" blather, either. Ask the Cypriots what that is worth. Without any overt monetary backing, a thing has value - a dollar, a Bitcoin, a barter-unit in Barter Town because people ascribe a value to it. What happens when enough people and other countries don't think that the value ascribed to it is correct?
Currency markets for years have been a beauty contest for butt-ugly chicks and guys in drag. Japan's new contestant doesn't even look human. So everyone has been inflating their currency resolute in the understanding that - well, everyone else is doing it too so I can't get penalized for it. We'll see. Governments don't go bankrupt - that looks bad. They inflate their way out of their fiscal problems.
Paul - your problem is that you aren't afraid to risk the livelihood, health and well-being of millions of people on your crackpot ideas that have consistently been proven wrong. It's one thing to be content with destroying yourself...... So whats the best store of value now? - brass and lead, folks. Brass and lead.
Maybe that is why Homeland Security is buying so much brass and lead.
Growth components?!
The Soviet Union couldn't price bread correctly.
Yet you and the Federal Reserve believe that you can price money, that is interest rates, correctly!!
JP Morgan stated, under oath to Congress, that only gold is money.
Yet you and Bernanke insist that pieces of paper signed by a couple of bureaucrats called Dollars are money.
When do you admit that you are wrong?
Most Interesting of Times:
And the original U.S. Constitution, I believe, said only Gold and Silver were money. Of course that was set aside (I believe) when the U.S. went from a "Republic" to a "Corporation" and certain "Amendments" like the 13th were struck out of the new structure. And then the new "Corporate" structure was bankrupted and we are permanently in debt to the banksters under a bankruptcy agreement.
Some backup info: http://www.apfn.org/apfn/13th.htm
and what New Hampshire is doing to fectify the long-standing treachery: http://legiscan.com/NH/text/HB638
1913 Fed was the start of the downfall, with the Progressive Wilson signing American soveriegnty away with the stroke of a pen, and his re-progressive income tax. FDR via SSA made US citizens commodities, why do you think your name is in all caps on the SS Card. Bought and paid for, we are, amazing chan. So the year of 1933 was the final US bankruptcy (bait and hook). Then in 1970's being taken off the gold by the Trickster to fund the Vietnam War, officially creating the first US FIAT currency. The spending didnt stop there. Spending in excess of GNP is a crime, and is unsustainable, unless one inflates, causing currency deval, makes for a smaller debt, but one side affect is that nastly little thing call hyperinflation, or worse, stagflation (which is where I think we are now)...how long it all stays up, not counting possible EMP's, or radioactive fallout effects due to the nut job in Norkland. Let's not forget Ack-My-Dinner-Jacket in Iran...how does it go...Double, Double, boil and bubbles, tiny bubbles.
Just remember, one could spend 1 million per day, since Jesus Christ was born, till today, and still not spend 1 trillion. Tell me how many trillion we are in debt? tight labor mkt, inflation rising, risk-off slowdown baby...how can the equity mkt be where it is with all the foodstamp people, unemployed, zero int rates....top down, upside down, inside out indeed!
No. We understand that Bernanke is a fucking asshole - that Greenspan was a fucking asshole - that the entire system if fucking CORRUPT and NOT worth saving.
So Bernanke can get absolutely fucked if he expects us to play his little game any longer.
This truly is one of those moments when you have to destroy it to save it. So fuck you Ben - I want the cocksuckers who run you to feel the pain that everyone else is feeling. I want you to enjoy the taste of warm dog food.
In the meantime I will NOT put any cash in the bank - in fact I just got Q1 dividend from my group of companies and it will be in my account only long enough to buy another bag of gold coins.
I say again - FUCK YOU BERNANKE - Fuck you Krugman, CNBC, FT, etc... I am looking out for NUMBER ONE.
While I don't disagree with you, I nonetheless demand that you stop yelling at us!
8th RULE: If this is your first night at FIGHT CLUB, you HAVE to fight.
Ben Bernake is a banker. Those "growth components" Mr. Bernanke is "putting in place" are there for the benefit of banks and bankers. Any benefits that trickle down to main street are purely incidental.
I'm guessing that "Dr Paul Krugman" doesn't get the causal relationship between wealth disparity and unemployment when the wealth at the top is used for speculation in financial instruments rather than productive enterprise. Or maybe he does...
He never said there was a sure trade. He's monitoring DOW cycles against the bitcoin as a sentiment gauge...and sees an emerging pattern. It's worth a watch before you go all snarkarama.
But there are crooked trades, like JP Morgan naked shorting the gold and silver market and holding a 35% position on both markets.
Both of which are illegal.
Speaking of gold:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/on-the-scene-one-ton-of-gold-seized-in-sm...
Got to be careful on those border crossings. This is why I advocate a mixed strategy of bitcoin and precious metals.
"The Seven Year Itch?"
Bankruptcy Cycle,... Bankruptcy Cycle,... Bankruptcy Cycle,... moarever, recycled credit...
the average sheeple [consumer] has thrown in the towel, period! it's a never ending cradle to death annual event... a perfectly means-tested [above average-- 'good house-keeping approved'?] periodical table of conciliatory default by the common drone?
Interesting re bankruptcy, what Jim Willie has been focusing on recently -
That the really key hidden aspect of the US Bankruptcy Reform act of 2005, was making bank derivatives higher in priority than customer deposits or all other customer account holdings ...
So as the big banks with their trillions in deposits finally go under, the customer deposits will all be sucked out, MF-Global-style, in payments to other banksters and the wealthy owners of a quadrillion in derivatives contracts
With nothing left of deposits for the common people in the USA, except the 'FDIC insurance fund', which has almost no money left in it.
So according to Jim Willie, this will be a major final tool of confiscating what is left of private assets in the USA:
« The bank nazis will not see their massive pillars, their syndicate hives be ruined without stripping the US nation of its private wealth. »
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1365105720.php
jim willie is a fucking pro
can't say i've heard of him, but, has jim willie ever contributed as a guest commentator on ZH... and if not, why?
the moar the merrier :-))
Get thee to http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/ You've got a lot of catching up to do.
The pieces sure fit well. How fortunate for counterparties that B of A transferred its derivatives liabilities to it's deposit-taking unit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-27/bank-of-america-derivatives-tra...
Remember the good old days of Glass-Steagall when this was unheard of?
That's one of Jim's most powerful essays ever. The guy hits almost every nail on the head.
We are being governed by madmen, nutters, criminals, fraudsters and other assorted loons.
Most of whom are one sandwich short of a picnic.
+1
Dud you nailed it.
BRIIICS 3 is comprised of mature, culturally advanced, societies. As apposed to west's 90 day's same as cash," screw everyone , then annihilate yourself mentality". There maybe hope yet. Great writing, you tell it like is, give thanks.Oh, the US Treasury/Congress will print $$ to make good on the FDIC insurance, but that's it. Any accounts over the 250K limit (per customer per bank) will be lost. Also, I don't know if the SIPC has the same "full faith and credit" backing of the money printer that the FDIC has.
Never keep more than 250K in any single bank in the US.
You forgot the seasonally adjusted (CPI figures). /s
...the sheeple actually enjoy being fleeced...as long as the shepherd keeps feeding them-- but... it's that slow grinding drive to the abattoir?... ya know, that rancid taste on their tongue when the butcher says hoof first?
gulp... and let's hope for 'no moar mutton' on the passover?
oh, and for those agnostic readers out yonder-- 'Bankruptcy for Dummies' and how to fuck the system before it fucks you [** financial advise strongly not recommended]
First and foremost.. I shouldn't be posting to the muppet fuck fest groupies. Although, my heart goes out to the naive imbeciles.
Shakes my head. When will you learn about the deception going on?
Some known business models are lacking proprietary non-disclosure measures. Thumbs up for that!
ENIGMA OF THE ABSOLUTE
also, i love deadcandance
http://youtu.be/2ZpXPwmbQvc
I got a fever, and the only cure is more cowbell.
Your conclusion shouldn't be overlooked and should be shouted loud. In the uk when a football manager has lost the fans they often sing "you don't know what you're doing", when 'they' went on this crazy journey of zirp, QE and bailouts they were flying blind into a maelstrom, they had no idea of the outcome and they still don't. To think the whole mess could be sorted by cranking up the presses whilst trying to keep a lid on the pressure cooker of hyper inflation defies belief.
some do (functionaries), some dont (useful idiots), they are all protocol droids systematically implementing a single agenda
bitcoin is lightening in a bottl, zero transaction fee NWO banking cartel nightmare
blessed are the miners for they shall inherit the blocks
trust only Ag, Au, Pb
the ballot box or the cartridge box my friends
Don't for get the K, O, C, H and N to go with that Pb.
The more alliterative version is the well known "ballot box or bullet box".
(1) "economy is set to finally turn the corner."
(2) "is going to push the economy into "escape velocity."
(3) "Is the economy about to boom OR has it peaked for the current economic cycle?"
(4) "compare what you are visualizing versus what you are being told"
(5) "I am not suggesting that a crash is looming"
(6) "none of this data suggests that a recession is imminent"
(7) "Ever expanding programs continue to support Wall Street and the financial system but fails to improve the diminished state of Main Street."
and to think that there are hundreds of thousands of these idiots out there informing the general sheeple about what to do with their money. (my favorite......."none of this data suggests that a recession is imminent". wtf
thralls, its like a cult. :/
We have been told about green shoots for years now, uh, how long does it take a plant to grow when it becomes more that just a ...shoot?
The shoots in reality are just the snake oil banksters calling green painted matchsticks stuck in the ground 'green shoots' that are no more probably going to grow into a tree than a dead body rise up from being dead
So why don't States secede? What they can't produce within their borders they can import unlike before globalization or print with 3D printers. Also they can maximize their populations workforce, set up tariffs where necessary, issue their own currency. Their politicians and people would live long and prosper. I think it makes sense now because of technology compared to the days when the United States was formed.
The FEDs are crushing the states like ole King George did.
i did a training rotation at a place called Fort Polk, Louisiana one time and i'll never forget the Alabama National Guard "showing up with their Abrams Tanks." those boyz could rock and roll and while this probably makes me sound like an awful person saying this "they had the spirit of Nathan Bedford Forrest in them" and i loved it. Texas used to be its own country at one time...be pretty much impossible right now without Oklahoma...but with Oklahoma i think they could have a striking degree of "autonomy" at least. i think we're only hearing the first rumblings from Rand Paul...clearly he has Presidential ambitions. If he and Marc Rubio can find a way to..."communicate effectively" that could be quite the lethal combination of a ticket. of course they'd have to decide who's got top bill first...
Unfortunately Marco Rubio is Not a Natural Born citizen, just like Obummer is Not.
Rubio has also been playing up to the CFR and the NWO, and therefore the Banksters.
It's common sense folk's (INSTINCT)!!...
and...tune into MY MAIN MAN, daily! you can't go wrong!!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/green-car-maker-fisker-fires-193738225.html
"While the stock market continues to ramp up due to the Fed's interventions the disconnect between the markets, and the real underlying economic fundamentals, will ultimately resolve itself"
I keep seeeing/hearing this type of commentary, but can't understand where it comes from. The FED will not stop propping up the markets as far as I can tell. They will never exit, as far as I can tell. With fundamentals now irrelevant, there is little reason for stocks to decline in a serious way. Small dips, sure, but the FED will be there as a backstop everytime. They have free reign right now.
I already spelled it out 2/18/2013. The Gospel needs no disclaimer. The lags for money flows have been mathematical constants for 100 years.