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The Knockout Blow People Will Not See Coming
Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,
Have you ever done something really stupid, just because you were in love? Something you look back on and cringe, thinking “why on earth did I do that?”
Of course. Who hasn’t?
Fear. Love. Panic. Exuberance. Jealousy. Desire. These emotions have tremendous influence over human behavior. And when they kick in, they skew our judgment and cause us to do things that can only be characterized as highly irrational.
In the world of economics and finance, they call this ‘sentiment’. Consumer confidence, business confidence, investor confidence… these are basically emotional readings. Screw the numbers. To hell with the truth. It’s all about how people feel.
It seems crazy, but it’s true. Right now, for example, ‘sentiment’ is telling us that the euro crisis is over. It’s telling us that the debt ceiling is pretty much resolved. And, after taking five years to reach pre-crash levels, it’s telling us that the stock market is once again safe for the average investor.
Yet the numbers tell a completely different story.
In the US, politicians are celebrating their accomplishments that the US unemployment rate has declined to 7.6%.
Of course, the real figures show that the labor force participation rate (effectively the percentage of society that they consider to be in the work force) has just hit a 30-year low. And the economy is failing to create new jobs.
Perhaps most of all, the US debt level this year will hit the danger zone that Greece was in just a few years ago when the European debt crisis kicked off in earnest.
In Europe, the situation is so bad that even the government figures are dismal. Italy is officially in a deep recession. Spain is posting a public deficit over 10% of GDP. The Greek economy shrank (officially) nearly 6% last year. Etc.
Bottom line, the numbers don’t match up with sentiment at all. And this makes for precarious investment conditions.
Over the first quarter of this year, US stock mutual funds reported $52 billion in retail investment inflows, according to market data firm TrimTabs. This is the highest inflow in a decade.
In January of this year, retail investors poured a record $77.4 billion into the stock market. To put this in perspective, the prior record, set in February 2000, was $23.7 billion.
You can probably guess how that turned out. This whoosh of money into stocks happened mere months before the crash.
It certainly seems strange when you stack it all together: on one hand, record high deficits, record high debts, record low labor force participation. On the other hand, record high stock market, record high mutual fund inflows.
Something just doesn’t add up.
Investors are throwing caution to the wind right now... ignoring the basic fundamentals and focusing exclusively on euphoric sentiment. (Or central bank policy).
Some of you may know that I was a competitive fighter for a number of years. I can personally attest, and any boxer will tell you, that it’s the punch that you don’t see coming which knocks you out.
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Sigh. I don't disagree with the general point but the US isn't Greece. You weaken your argument when you make that analogy.
Sometimes you clearly see the punch coming and it still knocks you out, because it's too forceful or too quick. C'est la vie.
If central banks are going to largely inflate away the debt, it makes sense to hold equities.
The larger question seems to be, what the heck is $100 trillion doing sitting in bonds?
Or, if we look at recently revealed policy of the BIS, IMF, EMU, US & Canadian gov's to seize bank held assets to resolve bank problems, what is ANY money doing sitting in ANY market or deposit account?
The 'knockout blow' for SIMON BLACK will be when his timepiece fails to indicate the present time in GSTAAD....
The 'knockout blow' for SIMON BLACK will be when some bum pees on the cardboard box he was planning to spend the night in.
To Simon Black, and his fans, there is always a knockout blow. They just bitch when they aren't the ones who get to deliver it.
Otherwise Simon'd have no problems and "sentiment" would be on par with fundamentals.
Sentiment sux cuz the SONG is written FOR the artist now. STARBUCKS squashes small coffee shops. Things like this are goooooooooooood. See the Dow Jones? But bad for Simon cuz he ain't Starbucks. So now he's gonna teach you how to dodge the blow.
what EV.
Most of you just want to be the last man standing. Nothing else. You don't want to solve problems. We could nuke everyone as long as there was real "growth" in the consumer and the middle class... There'd be no problems as long the US remained "competitive."
Simon thinks boxing is human nature. And Simon says, "I'll teach you to be a better boxer."
The history of the Federal Reserve is one designed by the banking elite to subjugate the middle class to a subservient existence.
Stalin would be proud.
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/04/documentary-money-banking-and-fede...
Central Bank is not for good of peoples!? Boris is feel so betrayal!
(Boris is use sarcasm, not really believe central bank lie and way is beyond feel betrayal.)
You know what is good for people?
Laughter.
Oh, Yee Doomers, Cynics, Currencieyests, Goldcrowns, Silversteeds, Big hearts and pure breeds!
I give thee,
comedy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTjcEhZv8Gc
^ THOR talks to women: Tanks, Smurfs and Imaginary Girlfriends.
PS. I gave you good eye candy, bitchez.
I could solve that mystery (of women) for you, but I think we can agree, that you don't want me to, right?
I'd be good with just solving the mystery of the one I'm with.....I ciould care less about the rest of the them.
Hint: Regardless of whatever she wants to know from you (or wants you to do), a woman would never ask you directly. Instead she will test you for the answer by running you through some setup composed of things like throwing tantrums, to see your reaction, That will tell her, what she needs to know and would never ask you. This perspective should bring some sense into otherwise uncomprehensable female behaviour.
Tantrum?
Women don't throw tantrums. Little girls throw tantrums.
That, my young Jedi knights...is the crux of your problem.
Actually sometimes they just truly don't know what they want and the tantrum is just a symptom of their own frustration. I did this a lot in my younger years I'm sad to say. When I figured out who I was and what I truly needed the tantrums went away. Sometimes things are deeper than the superficial. It's tough on you because you can't help her find in no matter how hard you try. Try during a tantrum say to yourself " what does she REALLY need." this may help you. Hint: it's not a bucket of Prozac and a polo mallet to the head no matter how much it seems! ;-)
Miffed;-)
Thanks NewThor, keep'm cummin!
PS. sweet eye candy indeed
To the fella talking about how the US isn't Greece: This is correct. The Greek people have much less debt per person to pay back. We are way more fucked.
And even setting that aside, they get to live in a country of near perfect weather year around. Some of us have to live in places like Gary, IN.
Did you know the human head weighs 8 pounds?
And I suppose there's a market somewhere for the book "Stalin, the Federal Reserve, and the price of rice in China." But I'm not sure why you're pimping it to me.
Did you know that bees and dogs can smell fear?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqxMlmpB66k
... or you see it coming, and think it's something other than a knockout punch. People in New Orleans saw Hurricane Katrina coming for 4 days, they were warned, told to evacuate, all the forecasts said it would be bad, and maybe 100,000 of them didn't do anything. "Those forecasters are a bunch of doomsayers, they always say that", or "It doesn't look so bad", or "I'll take my chances". Then the hurricane hits, and everyone's trying to blame someone for not telling them it was coming, or would be so bad, and "boo-hoo, please someone come help me. I stayed because nobody help me..."
Huh? That's not my point at all.
And I don't have a problem with him forecasting the shit sandwich either. Simon wants a "fair" boxing match. And he's upset and taking precautions because the fight is fixed and ready to blow. Hell, I'm upset the fight is fixed. I know it'll blow.
But he has no problem with the delusion that we should be forced to box in the first place. He believes in a Competitive Economic Boxing Model that creates winners from the expense of losers... He addresses faulty growth models by never mentioning them. He supports the general premise.
His vision is one of humanity forever competing within a scarcity based system... One that still REQUIRES the wage slave... That cyclical consumption game. And all the while EVERYTHING is pointing us in some other direction. Automation and technology, finite resources, overpopulation, exponential economic models, pollution, WAR........
To me he's just Luddism meets justanothermarketsystem.
The 'knockout blow' for SIMON BLACK will be when his foreign held gold and silver are confiscated by the governments of the nations in which they are held and his reserves of foreign currencies are worthless. Along with his USD. and his property in chile is appropriated by and upswell in communism. That'll be it fo realz./
The 'knockout blow' for SIMON BLACK will be when an EMP knocks out comms to the call center.
Who is Simon Black?
Charlatan writer of vague doomy articles. He may be right and I may agree with him on some points, but he writes nothing we don't already know here at ZH. The Layman's Tyler Durden. Also the Lame-Man's Tyler Durden.
He is one of the Tylers.
Simon is very perplexed:
He does not understand why his Tyler pseudonym is popular;
wherease, his Simon alias reaps ridicule.
He is one of the Russian oligarchs with a western sounding name...
/~({]sacasimnovich off
He's army 'special services', a world traveler, author, [now, 'former' boxer], one of the 'Tylers'?...
~~~
[he doesn't always drink beer ~ but when he does he's whistling the 'Old Spice' tune]
Doubt that "Simon Black" is one of the Tylers francis_sawyer. "He" was paying Casey for placement before "he" started paying ZH. I've actually done some of the things that "he" claims to have done. And "he", in that respect at least, is as full of crap as the proverbial Xmas goose.
I'm sure it makes for a nice diversion from the crushing monotony of the call center in Mumbai for "him" though.
I don't think he works a call center. When the big boys of the gold game are going to his retreats, Peter Schiff was pimping pictures of himself with Ron Paul, Nigel Farange and other big boys from his last sovereign man elbow rubbing hub bub you can bet he is in the network.
Fraudulent bio against fraudulent bio.
In Philadelphia, it's fifty bucks.
Nice. Old "Trading Places" reference when Dan Aykroyd cashes in in his kazillion-dollar watch at the local pawn shop. Got it. Carry on, sir.
How much for the gun??
You know, it occurs to me that the best way to hurt rich people is by turning them into poor people.
You want me to break something else?
NO!!
+1 for the "Trading Places" references.
Here's a very interesting article about what happened the last time the Fed owned nearly all outstanding Treasuries.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1321721-here-s-what-happened-the-last-ti.... If we don't get a recession, it's going to be very hard for them to unwind.
Thanks for the link
Benjamin Graham pointed out that stocks tended to do poorly in the U.S. during periods of inflation. That goes against our intuitive sense, but then again high inflation causes a lot of instability and other problems for businesses. It makes forecasting more difficult, as well as long term contracts. Interest rates tend to rise. Labor unrest and disruptions increase as unions want torenegotiate wages etc.
Of course long term bonds at or near the nadir of interest rates are even worse in an inflationary environment.
But I think risk is everywhere and the fallout from an economic implosion/explosion will be far reaching for everyone. There may be some people who make out like bandits... including, of course, bandits, but the vast majority will suffer greatly.
In this case, it is a molasses-slow punch that was telegraphed at least 30 years ago. I saw it and lived accordingly. Now it is a chess game, not a boxing match. Its simple, brutal math. Government tries to suspend math. Math will knock governments senseless.
I like the analogy. Only, when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled on, and when elephants make love, the grass gets trampled on. I feel like this clueless ant on the elephant's ass, and hope to god this elephant is not gonna decide to sit down any time soon.
the elephant is farting right now. Alot.
Ouch!
http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com/2010/04/alot-is-better-than-you-at...
Classic link. Ill bet u like that alot...
The knockout punch was delivered 100 years ago with central banking and fiat currency. It was just a matter of time.
Although the fiat part was only in the last 42 years.
"Flexible currency" started in 1914. It was gold-backed fiat money which, of course, provided for monetary inflation and war and could not last.
The final default on gold redemability did happen in 1972 (the first default being FDR's default to the American people in 1933).
That was nice of the alot to keep us updated on the elephant's activities
I was going to make the telegraphed punch analogy, but as usual, someone (you, this time) beat me to it. What i am looking for is a way out of the ring. Many people have seen this coming for the last few years at least and written about it. Most of them get about as much respect as Rodney Dangerfield.
What I find even sadder is that the MSM still tends to make fun of the guys who've been shown to be right over and over, and still holds the morons who were shown to be absolutely wrong over and over up on a pedestal.
A couple of examples.
Our resident Nobel laureate in economics, Paul Krugman, who to his credit admitted post-crash:
"How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?"
Similarly, Bernanke was completely blindsided by the crash, repeatedly claiming there was no housing bubble, then reassuring everyone it was contained, and yet he's reappointed as Fed Chairsatan by Obama and named Man of the Year by Time.
has anyone thought why the punch is so slow? IMHO it is about a way of life, the society set up. It is about a false choice between Capitalism and Socialism. Why? just think why Capitalism was such a successful stage- in absense of full information and in presence of scarce resources only Capitalism system offered proper rewards to those who could guess right (take risk) about some venture. Now information is more available than ever it is also getting less expensive by the minute in addition resources are plenty. so what is the next stage in economic and socio political development? the slow punch is the period of adjustment when all of us accept the new reality ie the punch has already happened ;)
Well a lot of the force of the punch is in the 70 million U.S. population of aging boomers. The first 13 inches was slow arriving, but the last inch is disappearing very fast now. "Retirement" was illusory, survival eclipsed it, and Bernankecide will kill many before their time.
Oh, brother. First Simon Black proclaimed to be an "up and coming" MI officer and West Point ring knocker; now his resume has "competitive fighter".
Or is this the real Walter Mitty?
He was also madhedgefundtraders test driver in F1. I think they both have watch deals with Omega. As children we met at private school. Simon was the president of the fencing club. But, more than crossing swords, madhedgefundtrader, simon and myself loved to dance. We really enjoyed break dance competitions. Simon won many competitions, there was nobody that could Lock and Pop like Simon.
The walrus is Paul.
US isn't Greece and I ain't sentimental about ponzi markets.
The U.S. isn't Greece because it is such a larger degree of insolvency, debt, and unfunded liabilities.
"... US isn't Greece. You weaken your argument when you make that analogy ..."
US is worse than Greece because it has become a banana republic with nukes.
And worse because a lot of people all over the world are keeping their life savings in US Dollars. So when the US Dollar collpases it will impact the whole world.
The U.S. may not be Greece, but it's skids are greased with it.
And Spain was not Uganda
Let the Zero Hedgers believe what they want. They want a collapse, they want riots in the streets, they want hungry people in the streets, they want total disaster, so that their gold can rise abit which it hasnt for 2 years now. They are mentally unstable people these guys here.
We have collapse, riots, hunger, disaster and rising PM values vs fiat. How in the Hell does that make ZHers unstable?
Cognitive Dissonance is strong with you, Buttercup....carry on.
We have collapse, riots, hunger, disaster and rising PM values vs fiat. How in the Hell does that make ZHers unstable?
Beacuse you wish it happens, you get a boner everytime you hear something bad about the economy. Get a job.
I missed the part where Zerohedge control world policy.
Also, I don't lilke seeing innocent people getting hurt. Compare the rection for Cyprus from Zerohedge and from Germany. There was a lot more symphaty from Zerohedge than from Germany who said they were lazy and lives of Russiand criminals. Hence they deserve poverty.
hence "there is the shot you don't see coming that takes you out. the shot you do see coming that takes you out. and the most important one: the shot you SHOULD have seen coming but kidded yourself that that would never happen. they would never do that." of course emotion plays with "you"...it plays with all of us. just say the word "gold" and see what happens. how about "money!"....http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=life+of+brian&page=2
see "prophets."
No, just the oligarchical(I can't believe firefox doesn't hit me with the red line spell checker for that word) hangings that those things produce
Poqit you cant discuss with these mentally unstable Zero Hedgers. They WANT to see the world burn, and see hungry people die. Thats what they hope for, thats ALL they talk about. They hope this so it will make their situation look better. And i agree, US is not Greece. And no the financial situation is not perfect, but their are ups and downs everywhere.
They denied that wishes were horses, they denied that a pig had wings
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market, who promised these beautiful things.
>>I don't disagree with the general point but the US isn't Greece. <<
Which is exactly why the oligarchs want to bankrupt and impoverish us even more.
Yea if anything the U.S. is in much worse shape than Greece.
Have you ever done something really stupid, just because you were in love?
Yes.
The rest of my life, I wasted.
Ah, 33 years of marriage and each day has been better than the previous. Love... Love is a wonderful experience when you spend your life trying to understand that wonderful person who chooses to spend their life loving you back. Love takes effort but the reward is a wonderful companion who loves you back unconditionally. Great stuff.
You must be talking about your hand then.
Son, If you want to be treated like a man then you've got to act like one. Capiche
I'll leave that shit to the activities of the Catholic church.
I rarely feel compelled to call someone an asshole... but in your case it comes easily for me. In other words, you're an asshole.
Thats what my ex-wife calls me too. Oh the irony..
You get a +1 for being self aware, even if you know thyself to be an asshole. I'll take an honest asshole over a lying pussy. Think about it...
Cheers
When it works.
When she starts fucking your friends and guys at the bar your Heaven becomes Hell.
You're lucky; keep counting your blessings and maintain humility.
My reality gets a thumbs down.
Um...o.k.
I was thinking the same thing, thumbs down, really?
Sorry to hear your story but it sounds like you're better off without her. Lots of great gals out there but finding them at the bar won't be right for you. Just keep at it, you'll find the one.
I'm still searching for my ex-wife's killer.
But, so far I haven't found anyone to take that job...
Obviously, the glove does not fit anyone else...
and you can pretend it does not even fit you!
Thank you.
No one deserves that ebworthen. I hope you escaped and have found happiness. I can't abide those who do that to one they purported to have loved. Better to come forth with honesty, say you no longer love the person and divorce than go behind their back and fuck someone. How can you ever trust someone again even if you try and rebuild the relationship? It must have been terrible.
Miffed:-)
Thank you.
Yes, awful, but making it and putting it behind me (10 yrs. since divorce).
I do really wish any couples the best and please keep it that way and don't lie and cheat because the alternative is truly HELL for all involved.
The fact that it was your "friends" and guys you would see again at a bar means she just wanted to inflict maximum pain and humiliation. That can really test a mans limits, she's lucky you just walked away. I hope she didn't cost you a lot of money also.
Dear god! I didn't see it that way , you are right. Now I'm really horrified. E, you are truly a wonderful man if you can have the attitude you do after all that suffering. I am humbled. You deserve a life with a wonderful woman and I hope you find one. Peace
Miffed:-)
We need more success stories like that, thank you for sharing. Let's hope that your journey together continues for many more years. :-)
I'm with you, brother. Next month will be 20 years for me. 2 wonderful kids and both of us have been 100% faithful to each other. We've had our struggles, but we both honored the commitment we made. Very rewarding.
Key-Rick you nailed it - keeping the commitments we've made. There is no better way to feel good about how you have lived your life, and conversely, if you fail to keep your commitments to those you love and who love you, there is no failure more devastating. My wife and I have 35 great committed years and counting. Although we don't have a lot of material wealth, we have enough to eat, a warm place to sleep, rewarding work, and our health. I thank the gods every day for this life I have been given, and for beautiful woman who shares her life with me.
Who junks a post like this? Must be the government.
The whole frickin' world is going down! Soon!
Fear-mongering is all that matters, so long as you and your cronies can profit!
Leave out important details, fool the sheeple!
What a sham, shame on you!
Michelle
What important details are you taling about?
Tyler knows to what I'm referring and I'm pissed as hell!
I found this website before most of you because of a Google search. This site had at the time the "skinny" on what was going on, not that others didn't, but he was more in the know. Now I believe that Tyler has gone rogue. Sorry Tyler, I believed in you once and my credit card statement shows it.
Duck Duck go? Log off your E.mail ding dong<
Bitch, shut up and state your stupid case.
t - name calling makes you look stupid and immature.
Tyler knows what I'm talking about.
He used to post information, now he just posts information he wants YOU SHEEPLE to know.
It's a game here too.
He only ever posted the information he wants us to know. The negativity of this site kept me out of a bull market for the last 4 years. Every day it was "this is the end" and every day it was wrong. But, being a natural born pessimist, I always believed it and still do.
Yahtzee or Scrabble?
Perhaps you should listen to reason Michelle? I wasn't joking, or name calling. https://duckduckgo.com/
If you want to surf anonymously, this is an alternative browser/search engine.
Ding Dong isn't name calling? Since when?
Remember this post?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/isda-cds-settlement-auction-hidden-gold...
We don't get these anymore.
Last week was SNS Bank CDS auction. No mention of it anywhere, yet Tyler posts four charts that show algos going wild. Now refer to above link....lack of liquidity, he even says so. Been following these auctions for years and it's true, but he doesn't mention it anymore. Why not? Because he doesn't want us to know.
I assume I am addressing Tyler's ex-wife here.....
Read the article, still don't see the relevance to your vitriol. That was an article about a possible trade opportunity in early 2009 when the shit was hitting the fan.
I would assume you mean that the site used to be about making a trade/profit from chaos where now it's about documenting the chaos and telling everyone to get the hell out of the way, missing potential profits in the process. Do I have that about right?
If so, I assure you, there are many people on here who totally get it and are in "the market" up to our eyeballs right now and have been since 2008/2009. This site is our "distant early warning system". We know the collapse is coming, we're making preparations as best we can but we also understand it's not happening today. While the music plays, we dance. When it stops we'll be so gone, so fast your head will spin.
Am I anywhere close to your point, Mrs. Durden? If not, please feel free to make your point yourself.
I think you hit the nail on this one....
in her defense, I've been here as long as she has and can vouch that a private ZH forms in the brain where you want Tyler's research and summary on anything you feel is fucked up
Tyler is the Shepherd.
We are the Sheepherd.
You sound just like that crazy psycho bitch from Lame Cherry. Cough up the details or shut the fuck up.
Michelle spit it out. None of this so and so knows bullshit. If you've got the balls to cry foul then ball up and spill or stfu.
Real men don't state the obvious. Why should Michele have to?
Real men present their case. Men making baseless accusations spew bullshit.
Michelle gave an example above. I appreciate it. Like everything, including ZH articles, I'll take it with a grain of salt and come to my own conclusions.
Found this site because of a Google search? How Bizarre.
You read the Drudge Report yesterday, don’t be bashful. :>p
Christ you guys scare off the 3-4 chicks we ever get around here. Big sausage fest as it is...
Funny! Been here a long time but haven't been scared off yet although I've thought about joining a knitting forum instead and let these guys suck themselves.
I'll probably have my account shut down tomorrow morning when Tyler reads my posts, we know he does, so in light of this I will say my goodbye:
Thanks everyone for all your down arrows, all the critiques, complaints, bashes, etc. over the past four years. I know how to take crap and I dish it out, too. I wish you all the best and know things will be alright despite the gloom. Nothing is certain however.
Give your kids hugs, your spouse a smile and a wink, and maybe you too can get laid everyday, or more.
Laugh and smile often.
Enjoy every sunset.
Understand that last MCD french fry may be your last and really really taste it this time.
Life is simple if you can open your heart and love.
you just listed a lot of things that corporations and governments haven't started charging fees/taxing yet... we should start with a laugh tax and also regulate how long to chew a french fry
I doubt Tyler will jettison your access Michelle. Look. Everyone has an agenda.
EVERYONE.
In an adult world, you take what resonates with your view of the world, and toss the rest.
In just the time I've been here, I've seen content change and the presentation of it evolve.
It may not be what it once was, but I still find more truth than fiction.
I called you out because I still believe this is fight club. I didn't like the vague nature of your initial post.
It's good to call out people. It keeps 'em honest.
Even Tyler(s).
Michele is fine, nobody here gets jettisoned for whining. This is still fight club. If you can't make your point or win your argument when called out, you should stay on the sidelines. What's next, bullying laws on ZH?
pitch the website to Count Bloomberg
The numbers do not match sentiment because the sentiment is a creation of marketing propaganda. Manipulation of the herd through carefully crafted scripts, blasted at you from every TV and radio talking head. Everything is just fine!
ETA- Readers are a bit more clear on the situation. As long as they are not reading the mainstream publications that are pushing the same talking points.
+1
This is the single biggest fault of original article.
Real sentiment doesn't match Simon Black's "sentiment", because he gets his metrics from the mainstream media. It's a bit like trusting the foxes for a measure of the "sentiment" of the hens about the latest dissapearences from the chicken-coop.
Real sentiment on the street comes from how many people do you know that have lost their job and had to get a lower paying one or a part-time one, or how many stores do you see closed on your local mall or how many people have cut down on driving or ain't going on vacations this year.
Since Simon has built his whole argument on "sentiment" as told to us by the mainstream media, that entire post is about as worthy of trust as said mainstream media is.
On the one hand we have:
1) We have banks getting Trillions of dollars in gifts or 0% loans from the Federal Reserve/Federal Reserve owned Federal Government, while their bad mortgages are covered.
2) Corporations sending their labor to China or Mexico for 1/5th or 1/10th the labor costs and keeping the profits there so they aren't taxed much.
3) We get unemployment for a year or 2 and millions more on disability or working for the government for short high-paid careers, making room early for more government workers.
Then somehow we get:
1) Record high unemployment/underemployment
2) Record high corporation profits and record low corporate tax rates
3) Record high stock market and record low treasury rates
That truly is a mystery. I'd say it's either good sentiment and an optimistic outlook or the ZIRP will end along with the $trillion annual deficits and interest rates will begin to find their real world values. Interest rates will be the end game for housing, employment and the national debt annual interest payments.
"Data" are increasingly unreliable, because they are ever more dominated by government borrowing, transfer payments, bogus reporting, and absurd valuations.
The private sector is increasingly going underground, or just leaving the field. That, rather than emotions, is why so many will be shocked by the swift and "sudden" collapse.
Loss of trust in the system is by far the biggest damage that politicians, central bankers and financiers have done and are still doing.
I get the impression that in 2007, everybody thought "this is just a temporary thing" so they did all sorts of sneaky, deceitful things, made all sorts of far into the future promises (which people were supposed to forget about) and setup all sorts of temporary measures. All this was supposed to give room for confidence to pickup and the economy to naturally get back on track so in a couple of years those pecadillos would've been erased, the promises would not need to be kept and the temporary measures would be unwound.
Only this time the economy didn't pick back up in a couple of years.
So we still have bank and corporate balance sheets that have nothing to do with reality, official economic figures that have been twisted for so many years that it has become blindingly obvious that there's something fishy about them, the FED doubled-down again and again on their temporary loosening of collateral standards and on money printing and there are plenty of unfulfilled political promises around.
It's this that makes me think that what we're going to get this time around is a real-deal, genuine, systemic collapse.
European leaders trying to keep the illusion alive. They are trying to maintain public confidence in the monetary system (if public confidence is lost, it collapses). They are kicking the can down the road hoping that some solution will magically appear that fixes systemic problems (which it won't). And, they are trying very hard not to be blamed for causing the collapse when it finally happens.
Same thing is happening here in the US... keep the illusion alive.
Forward (over the cliff)!
The numbers don't match: bogus manipulated data has as much chance at influencing honest math as real data, we don't know which numbers we're working with until after the fact; fact and sentiment in this environment won't match.
Can Simon Black be traded for another endless self-promotor, op-ed writer? I know you need to post on the weekends but there has to be people who would be an upgrade over the 'Thomas Friedman approach' (I was in country X eating at this 4-star place and overheard this banker in the bathroom while I was taking a dump that we're all screwed)
Exactly.
I'm betting that Simon pays Tyler for the privilege of posting his infomercials. I have a passing familiarity with digital "content marketing" and the placement that Zero Hedge affords is valuable and I'm sure Tyler - astute entrepreneur that he is - is monetizing it.
Which is fine, as long as it doesn't detract from your own brand.
Tyler... pssst... Simon is detracting from your brand.
Sincerely trying to deliver some constructive feedback here.
More generally, I don't mind at all that Tyler monetizes the crap out of the site, but I'd suggest he re-invest some in the property. It's getting ratty. Some new headline guest posters could be part of that.
(Would love to see some stuff by Izabella Kaminska, if the FT would let her... or her fanboi Chris J Cook... I mean seriously let's hear from the truly "out there" ^P monetarists and kick up a nice cloud of dust. I suggest this because this is where the [statist] puck is sliding to, and we should prepare.)
The only sentiment that matters to me is when Americans and the other developed countries en masse decide that USDs are too hot to hold and need to be gotten rid of as soon as they are received.
Well, that will certainly speed up the velocity of money and not in a good way.
Let's play "Hot Potato!"
Are you kidding? I want that dirty green monopoly money out of my hands the second I get it... preferrably in exchange for ammo, canned sardines, beef stew, and rice.
+1 for the canned sardines. Very underrated food source !
My cats love sardines even more than whatever is in those Purina little-can tins.
The thing I like about canned sardines these days is they glow in the dark, so can be eaten even with the lights out!
Polar brand Kipper Snacks are pretty good. Long shelf life, no dangerous preservatives and the herring comes out of the North Sea, not quite so radioactive. Good source of omega-3 fatty acids too. Bought a couple dozen cases from Amazon at a decent price.
banking sector collapse is not equal to monetary system collapse. It is perfectly possible for cyprus banks to all go bust but the euro there being scarce as never before and thus very valuable
IF that 77 billion is retail than fine by me. Finally the TBTF banks will have their greater fool and we can get a meaningful correction.
Sentiment doesn't matter, only POMO
and flipping to the fed and recycling the money into stocks......."flow" not stock counts, ask the algos
water is wet
people? how 'bout larry kudlow/cnbc?
Whenever I see this author I do the rope-a-dope.
there is one thing for which one cannot escape responsibility,
that is walking to the well traveled train tracks and lying there
expecting a pleasant nap.
not sure what this means but it does sound true.
The Global Societal System which is built on the Banking System of Fraud must burn so expect that KO punch.
"Everything that needs to be said has been said" Pallas Athena
"It would be some time before I fully realized that the United States sees little need for diplomacy. Power is enough. Only the weak rely on diplomacy ... The Roman Empire had no need for diplomacy. Nor does the United States." : Boutros Boutros-Ghali - The sixth Secretary-General of the United Nations from January 1992 to December 1996
"We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the world - no longer a Government of free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men." : Woodrow Wilson
"It is better to suffer wrong than to do it, and happier to be sometimes cheated than not to trust": Samuel Johnson
Today's system of social order remains nought but a refinement of the ancient feudal systems where gangs of killers, thieves and liars had all the guns, horses and strength to help themselves to the productivities of those that work the land while raping and pillaging as their reward for their contracted through, gun-in-the-face, services.
I do not call this 'civilization'; I call this Institutional Organized Crime.
Ho hum
A fairly accurate description of things about to burn, and why:
http://silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-zirp-the-death-knell/
Ho hum
Two words: Normalcy bias
That's three words, ask the fed
This may sound silly but the natural laws of nature and physics always win; if something doesn’t seem right or the numbers don’t add up - its probably not so. You can cheat for a little bit but you’re just making things worst in the long run. Always do the hardest and the most painful things first and I can guarantee you’ll be more happy / better off in the end. Of course nobody will do this so what to do …. throw a bag of popcorn in the oven and enjoy the show?
Mother Nature only allows cheating if there's stored wealth. Trading nothing for something is cheating. Trading nothing for nothing cannot occur. Trading something for something increments peace and prosperity.
I love lamp
Algos posess no sentiment just like governments and corporations posess zero morality..
The assignment of sentiment is placed on non-volume generating entities within this document.
Biderman stated that the game is to use corporate cash for driving up stockprices through buy backs so insiders can cash out their options at a higher level than otherwise possible.
This does not compute.
This takes me back. One of first posts I ever did on ZH 3yrs ago was droning on about the stupidity of placing faith in such qualitative markers as market sentiment. Wow did I get some argumentative trolls.
I'm probably one of the few who appreciate Simon's efforts. I haven't gone to Chile to grow avacados, or applied for residency in half a dozen weird places, but that doesn't mean his advice has no merit. Most of his stuff is outside my budget and sense of adventure, but I do enjoy reading about them. For a former spook, he's alright.
Repost?