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These Charts Better Not Reflect The True State Of The US Economy
Lately, when it comes to obtaining an accurate sense of the true state of the US economy, it is as difficult if not more than analyzing the openly-manipulated Chinese data. On one hand, the Fed-juiced market, which has lost its discounting powers, no longer reflects the current or future economic (or corporate) fundamentals, on the other, massive seasonal aberrations, whether purposeful or accidental, have made a mockery of any data series, be it jobs, manufacturing, retail sales, or housing. On the other, the administration - still stuck in the worst economic "recovery" since the Great Depression - is desperate to telegraph an improving economy, most evident in the months leading up to the presidential election, which makes taking any data at face value problematic and naive at best. Yet even the openly-contradicting Chinese data manipulation has its Achilles heel in the form of monthly electricity consumption (and to a lesser extent, production) updates.
So what is the US equivalent of Chinese electricity consumption data? We believe it may be the little-tracked, and thus not nearly as "adjusted" weekly updates from the Energy Information Administration, whose data on barrels of US product supplied of both total petroleum products and just gasoline are as indicative of the true state of the energy-hungry beating heart of the US economy as any other data set, and is likely a far more accurate representation of what is really going on between the lines.
Sadly, if that is indeed the case, then the disconnect between propaganda myth and reality is about as big as can be, since on a blended 52-week average basis, the total product supplied of motor gasoline is back to 2003 levels (black line on chart below). However, where it gets really scary is looking at the total product supplied category, which includes gasoline and all other product such as heating oil, propane, and kerosene. As the chart below shows, the US economy, whose GDP we are led to believe has never been higher, now has the same total consumption of all petroleum products (red line) as it did... back in 1997!
Source: Weekly US Product of Finished Motor Gasoline (EIA), and Total Petroleum Product (EIA).
The same disturbing story is revealed when looking at various other EIA charts of sales, and thus demand, such as this one showing that 52 week average sales and deliveries of gasoline by prime supplier in the US has also tumbled to levels last seen in the late 90's.
Source: Total Gasoline All Sales/Deliveries by Prime Supplier (EIA)
But maybe it is just the usage of more efficient modes of transportation, and a higher MPG as more Americans shift to electric cars and some such. Sure, maybe. Of course, that would not explain why the total miles driven has hardly budged for the last decade, and is far off the all time high recorded when the economy was indeed humming on all fours, if moments before it imploded in 2007...
Source: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled (St. Louis Fed FRED)
... but the biggest question we have is just how did the biggest boost in energy and engine efficiency occurred at two key junctions: Just after the Lehman Failure, and just after the US downgrade and the first debt ceiling crisis, when the total sales of gasoline by US retailers literally went off the charts, and which data series is now languishing at levels not seen since the 1970s (unfortunately we can only estimate: not even the EIA's data set goes back that far).
Source: US Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners (EIA)
Perhaps, just perhaps, Occam's razor applies in this situation as well, and the collapse in energy demand in the US has little to do with MPG efficiency, higher productivity, and throughput mysteriously achieved just when the entire economy was imploding in the months after the Lehman failure, and despite the re-emerging proliferation of cheap Fed debt funded SUVs and small trucks (discussed here), and everything to do with the US consumer being slowly but surely tapped out?
Of course, if that is the case, than the US economy is far, far weaker than even we could have surmised, although it certainly would explain the desperation with which the Fed is doing everything in its power to preserve the levitation of the S&P, i.e., the confidence that all is well despite all signs to the contrary. Because should the market finally be allowed to reflect the underlying economy - not the administration represented economy, but the real one - then everything that has transpired in the past five years will be child's play compared to what's coming.
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Literally. With real inflation numbers, not govt frauds, it is likely that real GDP is no higher than it was in 1997--but no one will ever admit it.
http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2012/04/06/chevy-volt-sales-pick-up-i...
Average fuel efficiency for cars has dramatically improved since 2000 in the US. (just look at the chart, no one gives a shit about the chevy volt)
Not saying that this accounts for 100% of decline (clearly it doesnt), but it might not be THAT bad.
The graph looks like it only shows NEWLY sold cars, so there would definitely be more of a lag in the decrease in consumption for this right hand side variable.
I have a "Recovery Summer" you might be interested in- only 10 bars Au GD to Metalor (or its US subsidiary)...
You don't use gas if you don't have a job to drive to.
So that's where all the people go who the BLS disappear from the workforce every month. I knew they'd have to pop up somewhere. They've "left the workforce" alright. Now we just have to figure out how they eat, or if they're allowed to eat.
Something in my gut tells me that the high unemployment numbers may be deceptive...the Internet is an amazing platform for furthering capitalism...I just wonder how many of those who have dropped out of the unemployment rolls are actually part of a shadow, off the grid economy? Can anyone say black market...sure beats paying taxes!
I wonder the same, and how I can get in on that shit.
It sounds romantic but the reality is that living off the grid or in the black economy is the life of an outlaw and that life is hard, way harder than most people care to handle...and for good reason.
you are wrong
I was a "black economy" participant in my school days.
It was kinda... tense.
Still gave me a lot of skills which carried over into "legitimate" business.
Raymond:
I'd buy your line if you are talking about people living in $500,000 homes, with fairly new vehicles, working their own visible retail, wholesale, or professional business - but if you take yourself off the radar, to the point that you disappear from the IRS computers, then it is a very easy life to live.
This is particularly true if you are over 50 - as far as they are concerned, you are probably dead, or living under a highway, or intitutionalized, or some other fate that makes you either TSTF (Too Small To F**k with), or TMTF (Too Much Trouble to Find). There's a lot to be said about not generating the automatic notices sent to the IRS that people with in-bank savings, mutuals, pensions, trust funds, and other such IRS Red Flags generate to keep themselves on the IRS radar.
So just a thought - there are lots of people doing cash economy - ever ask a cop how much some of these roadside panhandlers generate in a day? - and working flea markets and roadside stands with fake names, so before you decide it's a tough life, you might want to learn more about it first.
Just a thought.
-30-
you are spartacus!
That sounds like what I was talking about.
Flea markets and such are low margin, low frequency businesses that will never get you out of a fiscal hole.
If you own your home outright, you have an asset tax.
If you own your car (I keep mine almost 10 years), you pay registration fees, gas, insurance.
Just those two assets generate tax and expenses required by regulations (insur/regis), that make it necessary to come up with thousands of dollars.
I just don't see how working like a beast to sell enough items in a flea market is better.
I read a how-to book on living frugally and even in the foreword, the author said this is not easy living. This is substistence living. If you miss an opportunity, a "harvest", you are skipping meals.
Sorry. Not for me.
Living off the grid is rewarding and not all that hard. Been doing it off and on for many years. Black economy and outlaws I know nothing about.
you are spartacus!
funny how the sun comes up every morning and the grass grows without having to contribute to the corruption that goes for government
i am spartacus
"the Internet is an amazing platform for furthering capitalism"
Thought you were going to say the unemployed are now daytraders and ebay junk sellers.
the internet is wonderful. i was unemployed then i found out my friends mothers second cousins aunt started a business on the internet and makes literally millions of dollars. she cant even use a mouse...!
"she cant even use a mouse."
Yeah man, That's more likely BS, cause I've been in this Biz since 2000..
Those easy money times are long gone.. Big sharks (Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Yahoo, Ebay)
are eating all the profits.. You should have resources,
big A$$ hours, more likely 20hours/days and definitely know what are you doing..
Internet Marketing is harder than any job, cause sometimes you are basting your balls and actually losing money..
"Grand ma barely moving mouse" ???
Yeah right, Ask Tyler what it takes to keep site like zerohedge.com up and running..
Biggest competition ever from all over the globe.. "Mothers second cousins" probably on welfare by now ;)
At best. :) LOL
basting your balls?
Classic.
Internet marketing the world's hardest job?????
This aunt. Does she live in Nigeria?
Wel,I had had that same thought awhile back. My thought now is that the numbers are correct.800K have fallen off rolls.Productivity levels are just way high off the charts.As much as I wish for better situ,just think doesn't exist.The jobs are GONE and not coming back.There is a deep and profound structual change and not for the %99.2000-2010,8 trillion flowed to elites (%1) and that's not flowing back either !
Thats a good point. I wonder how the unemplyment would factor in here chartwise? But I think we would also have to factor a figure
Of the REAL unemployment of around 22% .....hmmm What do you think Tyler?
Many of us who used to commute to a job now telecommute.
No kidding... driving / riding to a job? How quaint.
Must not have been a Yahoo telecommuter, then. Everyone is pulling the telecommute plug....
Unlike a Yahoo! telecommuter, most of us actually work for living. Never being around means you have to be twice as good to get the same level of recognition, unfortunately.
+1 it really is that simple.
A quick glance at that chart shows energy consumption levels in the USA are similar now to what they were about 10 years ago. However, the American population increased during that time by about 10%. Therefore, given that there are roughly 10% more people, consuming about the same total amount of energy, the average overall wealth of the American people as a whole (as measured by their ability to use energy) has decreased by about 10% in the last 5 years.
Of course, that is still relatively nothing, compared to what will happen when the US Dollar loses its status as the global reserve currency. Right now, things are still going the other way, since almost everywhere else they are also screwing up just as bad, and perhaps more noticeably ... However, the long-term outlook for the American dollar continues to be dismal, and when it finally does lose its status as the global reserve currency, the effect on the American people may well feel like that they will have lost at least more of their apparent wealth in about as a brief period of time?
My ball park guess, based on hunches (while assuming nothing more wild happens first instead), is that the collapse of the US Dollar's status as the global reserve currency will effectively wipe out about 40% more of the average American's wealth, over the course of about a decade. Of course, I believe that such an outlook is doubly dismal, because I believe that it is being deliberately caused.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGD7tbixNZs
How does the Global Financial Crisis End
- Michael Maloney explains
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F7bM63ZfWQ
"We'll Kill the Dollar!"
TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Bitchez
Headache!!! Watch out below!
OMG...It is not the fall that kills you...it is that sudden stop.
Some of that has to be from replacement of fuel oil and propane by nat gas. Would like to see on a chart how that much figures into it.
Natural gas is used to produce electricity and heat homes.
Not for transportation, except for a few UPS trucks.
Any vehicles that run on natural gas? I am only asking, not being flippant.
Honda may still have a natgas civic.
"Any vehicles that run on natural gas?"
Almost none. There's no economic or technological reason for it. Just like there is no reason that 35 mpg seems to be the best we can do in 2013.
Except of course that natural gas cars and mpg > 35 gives TPTB the heebie-jeebies.
I first saw natural gas Taxi cabs on a trip to Argentina about 15 yrs ago. They modify a regular vehicle by installing a special Gas carburator. They keep a gas tank in the trunk. I saw them changing tanks in a gasoline station. I think they sell kits in the US, not sure if they're legal prpbably not, with our EPA nothings fckng legal here.
There is a technological reason for it. Your average vehicle weighs in at two tons and has rims that weigh too goddamn much. Because safety and gadgets and marketing caving in to idiots who want to roll on dubs while drinkin' their juice in the 'hood, yo.
One of these days I'm going to beat a GM designer to death with a 20" Camaro rim just to make a point. Unsprung weight costs $$$ in gas, tire wear, performance, and handling. Fucking numbskulls. The LS3 V8 is one of the best engines they've ever made and they stuck it in a two ton chassis monstrosity from Australia (Holden). The only good thing about them is it is yet another way for the idiots to label themselves.
The "average" vehicle hasn't weighed 2 tons in quite a while.
My '72 Buick weighed 2 tons
My '01 F250 still weighs 2 tons (a little over)
The Buick could be considered "average" in the 70's, but light TRUCKS (as opposed to consumer wanna-be trucks) are a niche retail consumer market.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/05/business/05weight.html
http://www.autos.com/car-buying/vehicle-weight-averages-for-certain-models
If that still isn't enough of you, look at how CAFE goals are skewed for the next 10 years. They are obviously taking an average vehicle weight of ~4k lbs. into account. The current generation Camaro (which I cite as my example of what the heck is wrong with the auto industry) typically weighs in at ~4100 lbs. in SS RS trim. The current Taurus weighs in at around that mark as well. Hell, the current Honda Civic weighs in at 3000 lbs. and that's the lower end of the scale.
It's been this way for a while now, you just haven't been paying attention.
WTF??? - can't that self-professed tree-hugging nigger do anything right?
"Compact cars (Honda Civic) should weigh between 3,000 to 4,500 pounds."
I could literally CRUSH a compact car just by putting in a different suspension in my truck so it can't be structural steel driving that's driving the weight up... I was just back in the US six months ago and my truck was just as difficult to park, and just as towing over the rest of the cars in the lot as when I lived there full time. Are .gov McFatties playing linguistic games and adding the weight of TWO McFATTIES to the actual curb weight?
I pulled the factory specs on my truck and its actually 3 tons not 2, but with relatively minor modifications it gets over 20mpg and with the push of button can putout over 500hp and a truly obscene amount of torque.
http://www.cars.com/ford/f250/2001/specifications/?acode=USB10FOT126B0
Autos.com is full of BULLSHIT
Here are the figures on what the average weight should be for some of the more common classes of cars:
... Midsize cars (Ford Taurus) usually weigh between 4,500 pounds to 5,500 pounds.
Full size cars (Mercedes S Class) average between 5000 and 6000 pounds.
... Light trucks and SUV’s (Ford Explorer) between 5000 and 7000 pounds.
Full size pickups and SUV’s (Toyota Tundra) can weigh between 7,500 to 12,000 pounds.
I logged into the office and checked fleet records and even our up-armored vechicles don't match their suposed curb weight averages.
To get their 12,000lb maximum average for a full-size pickup I have to add a CEMENT MIXING UNIT to an F450 chassis...
Even the NY Times article (from 2004) would appear to contradict it- if you look at total US vehicle sales in 2004 and apply their supposed "average" curb weight number- then the average curb weight of a US vehicle would be 50% greater than the NY Times claims it was. http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/11/us-best-selling-cars-2004.html
It's very easy to look up... every automaker is going to advertise curb weight. No need to get upset about it, many people simply don't realize how much vehicles have gained in weight over the years due to NHTSA etc.
Curb weight advertised for a 2013 Tundra is ~5600 lbs. for example. Just go to the auto maker's sites and start looking up the tech specs, you'll see. Here's the Camaro notes...
http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro-performance-car/features-specs/dimensions.html
Base curb weight ~3800 lbs, after options & rims you can come in at around ~4100 lbs. - I know this because one of my best friends runs a performance tuning shop and has a four-corner scale. He does a lot of LSx work and the gen5 Camaro is a pig, period.
For comparison your typical triple-nickle weighs in at around 4k lbs. when restored to original specs. Typical weights for typical cars really haven't changed all that much in the great scheme of things. Every time they take weight out in one area they end up adding it in another...
The top selling midsize car appears to be a Camry, tipping the scales at a little over 3,000 lbs and a lot less than autos.com's 4.5k-5.5k, and at the low end of even their scale for for the compact-class Corolla. If the Tundra is 5.6K, then to meet the bottom of autos.com claimed average for full size pickup trucks you would be bottoming out the suspension. So again - autos.com is full of shit.
Since a plot of the normal distribution of consumer preference by curb weight is skewed towards a few popular and heavy designs, then I would assume that the average design weight has actually decreased in weight in some positively correlated proportion to its decrease in popularity (looking at the 2004 data). More recent data would be interesting, especially since a clear bifurcation has appeared among the most popular models between detroit-heavy and ricerocket-lite, but I can't find anything (respectable) newer than an MIT paper that only looked at model years up to 2006, and is actually still being touted as "new & relevant" by MIT clowns as late as 2012 (for apparently political reasons). So the talking heads are talking out their asses as usual to push an agenda.
The current model Camry tips in at ~3400 lbs. before you start adding options. Go ahead, look it up. It's not like anyone can pull your leg about this, the numbers are there for anyone to look up on the auto maker's web sites, on Edmunds, you name it.
You can call autos.com full of baloney all you want but the fact is they weigh what they weigh. There's really no point in debating this, there's nothing subjective about it.
Your typical Ford F150 these days is going to tip the scales at a curb weight of ~6100 lbs, by the way. Again, it's all there in black and white. I also remember what the old Honda Civics used to weigh and, let me tell ya, it wasn't 3k lbs - they used to be much lighter. _They all have gained weight because of safety requirements and additional features_, it really is that simple.
While you're at it you can take a look at how CAFE works if you really want to get your blood pressure up... trust me, the manufacturers have all sorts of "outs" to make targets.
I think you are being even sloppier than I am with specifications, especially since the taditional Camrys, as opposed to the hybrids make up the bulk of the volume (and options involve a net weight change), for the 2013 model year:
Toyota Camry L 3190lb
Toyota Camry LE 3190lb
Toyota Camry SE 3240lb
Toyota Camry XLE 3245lb
Toyota Camry Hybrid LE 3435
Toyota Camry Hybrid LE 3525
The 2013 Ford F-150s range from 4684lb for regular cab short bed w/ 3.7LV6 to 5344lb for an extended cab long bed w/ 5.0LV8
Regardless, big business will corrupt the regs to suit its own ends and the masses get fed a bunch of BS about this better for the environment or the economy or whatever the cause-du-jour is, meanwhile the underlying reality gets worse and worse because the BS is allowed to grow.
Well, the Wife's Kia is returning 48 MPG on a run, 40 around town, so at least the Koreans are able to produce efficient (fast, spacious and comfortable) cars. This vehicle is "9 coming on 10" years old, with a lot of miles under the bonnet.
Kia ... "spacious"... what kinda crack are you smoking?!! I coudln't even get my marlin goose gun in the trunk or passenger compartment in anything they make without tearing it apart and thats speculating.
Also, plenty of LPG powered cars and light trucks in Australia. Still "relatively" inexpensive, and popular as a co-injection fuel with the big truck people (Kenworth, White, Western Star etc.)
Once the Nat gas is converted via gas to liquid process, all gasoline engines can use it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_to_liquids
Plenty in Germany.
Many of the taxis use it. Plus priuses are starting to be used as taxis as well.
I keep hearing that little voice saying, "Are you going to believe your lying eyes, or what people tell you..."
We don't need no stinking charts Tyler. Consumer sentiment says it all! Unless you live in D.C. -Virginia.
[ BLS ]makes phone calls every month to guage their statistics on. I would love to see the list of {Area Codes} on those calls!
Any wonder? Lots of the customers in my line of work are from Arlington, DC, Hurricane Sandy landfall zones, North Carolina. At least they're keeping us afloat and I have a job. There, Mom. I'm looking at the glass half full.
It's all conservation and efficiency gains. Soon, all economic activity will occur without any physical inputs whatsoever. We will become pure thought beings, like in the original Star Trek. I forget which episode, but McCoy was flustered, Spock was curious, and Kirk was playfully impetuous.
Yeah, that way we can sit all day in front of a computer and visit the anti-establishment websites, that we paranoidly sense are perhaps pro-establishment websites in some twisted and perverted way...
You're thinking of the 'alternate universe' episode, when our heroes found themselves in the mega-gay "all the officers have to shower together" universe.
It's Sat Night and the blog at ZH is discussing old Kirk Star Trak..... WTF!!!!!!!!
It's 1100 over here, I just realized I am already into Sunday.
I'm in the Future, Bit-Chez!
Keep Stackin
I keep thinking with all the government "support" programs it's more like "The Trouble with Tribbles" episode. They just keep breeding and breeding until they take over everything.
Now hold on a minute, buck-o! I know what you're thinking (and it's partially what I meant) but I'm also talking about the corporate leeches here as well. Rich and poor, large and small, real people and "corporate people"- they're ALL sucking at the government teat.
same in the asimov books that progressed from "bicentennial man" through "i, robot" and into the final one with spirits in thought bubbles that all die out except one who says "let there be light"! (a keynesian economist probably)
that was the bomb in the movie Dark Star:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9-Niv2Xh7w
And I've been printing most shit I need with a 3D printer, so less trips to the store.
Was that the episode where Kirk confronted the blanchmange shaped Reamulian with phaser in hand and said "Just hand over the Xenite, you ugly Reamulian fuck or I'll blast all three of your asses over the moons of Meepsoar?" It was right after Spock "phased" the extra crew member in the landing party; some black guy.
i am down to less than 8000 miles a year......and when i actually fill up every 2 weeks , i wonder how people fill up every other day for $10 hour jobs !!!!!!!!
They don't. Every time I'm at the gas station, it seems like everybody is just buying enough gas to get from point A to point B and back again. 1, 2, 3... 5 gallons at most.
Same here.
At a gas station, not even the cheapest one around, when I need to get my receipt inside as at the pump it seems to have run out of paper:
Guy in front of me puts a pack of smokes and a bag of chips and $20 on the cashier's desk and asks for the remainder to be assigned to the pump where his gas-guzzling pick-up stands. Priorities I guess.
Are we foooooked ?
Yyyeeeeeppp.
fooking fooked since the charts are not leveling off at all, but continuing a descending pattern. This more clearly illustrates the impact of people simply stopping attempts to find a job after a year, what are called "no longer in the work force". Didn't they just fess up that they threw another 660K people in that bin in 1 month?
Yep. I look at the product supplied numbers every time I start to question my thesis on the real economy.
Looks like Mericans have kept the hummers parked the last few years. Using a lot less gas but still driving almost the same amount of miles.
At peak consumption, based on these charts, I had a sweet Infiniti QX56 and I drove very fast. Now I have a lame Prius and drive very slow.
Yup, me too, use to be the faster the better.... now I drive a Smartie diesel and get 60 to 70 mpg... instead of watching to boost gauge I now watch the scan gauge to stretch out my mpg....
+1 for mention of Scan Gauge
Buy more bullets. Hire more TSA. Spend more on mercenaries. Print more money. Buy more stocks.
I am pretty sure if we had a carried interest deduction, great leaders like Mitt Romney would emerge to rebuild his hometown of detroit. He was on fox news recently saying he wants to save the america he grew up in.
Yeah that's the problem of the so called leaders of America, they are trying to bring Frankenstein back to life.
Wish the would let the dead rest in peace.
Holier than though tax code junkies don't die. Even if we wanted them too. Something about running for POTUS to get aircraft carriers named after you when beeing (sic) a bishop in your 501c3 church is simply not enough. And then getting a left handed reach around from zerohedge defending $100MM in an IRA. (repatriated to detroits favorite son. ex=switzerland, via a an IRS pardon)
Timmah, Mitt Romney, Tyler Durden. God save who ever is on our currency.
makes the price rise rather ironic of course. "here's mud in your eye." i've said this before and i'll say this again: "you can price yourself out of your own market." obviously we all have been forced to cut back given the collapse of 2008...driving is the most obvious place to start. the USA has the best public transportation system in the world (not saying it's the cleanest of course) and so obviously another way to look is to see if ridership has been increasing because if that's falling too then truly this is a demand shock that will not dissipate for a very long time. i've tried to imagine myself being responsible for a Government Agency...of ANY size...and trying to formulate a budget given this "new normal"...talked to a girl who did that for FEMA actually...impossible. as the Royal family of Britain said famously after World War I "you're not allowed any more wars for twenty years." obviously the USA isn't that bad...but clearly "this is not how a normal, healthy and well run economy actually works." it would be nice if the monetary authorities would point this out..."that we look forward to the day when these special programs are no longer necessary." Indeed explaining how when these programs are in fact wound down meaning "everyone has more authority as it means the programs are being paid for" would be nice too. nay...veerily, tis left to Days Gone By now.
I don't know about "the best public transportation system in the world". I've seen a few better ones, eg. France, Canada, Nordic Countries ... Also, I heard Japan's isn't bad at all.
Maybe he has never even been to an adjoining state,let alone abroad.Or he is
a city dweller.
The US had a tenth rate public transport system,now its about 149th in the world.
Even some African countrys have better.
Americans are only exceptional in their own mind.Its going to to be hard facing reality
when the dollar loses GRC in the near future.
I always wanted the job of the guys with the white gloves pushing the people onto the trains.
"Mind the Gap"
"Mind the Gap"
"Stand clear of the doors please"
Fond memories of the London Underground. Bloody crowded during the rush hour, but remarkably efficient.
"the USA has the best public transportation system in the world?
LOLOLOL...what the fuck are you talking about?!?
Lack of food, causing hallucinations.
lol
So that's what "tapped out" means.
Oil Tanker freight rates are down for a reason.
Referencing the most recent labor force participation charts supplied here on zero hedge would seem to backup the data shown here..
Flip the last chart vertical for an idea of what ammunition sales are like. People may not be buying gas, but grown men were pushing each other out of the way at 6am for some .22 ammo at WalMart.
I know... I was there.
What Walmart? No damn ammo anywhere near me except old WWI stuff and odd calibers......
.22 plinkers going for $60.00 a case at the gunstore we went to today. 1 box of LR left on the shelf for around $25.00 for a box of 50. Hubby bought a case of .35's for our Remington at $25.30 a box.
My brother sent me a picture of the gun case at the Wal Mart near him...... empty. Almost no guns or ammo. He said "I guess this is what happens when you live too close to DC."
.45 ACP is DOUBLE the price it used to me in my area (Philly), and that's if you can find it. I switched to some Brazilian-made ammo after doing some research. It works as good as Remington FMJ- got several hundred rounds through my old Ruger with it- no misfeeds, and the gun stays clean, unlike some of the "cheap" ammo out there.
Something smelling FISHY? Me thinks.
What, how is this possible? Must be those damn sequester budget cuts Obama warned us about killing the economy........ Wait, what I mean is - Economy is just fine, move along, nothing to see here.
But, if things were this bad, wouldn't the po folks be up in arms (oh, wait, they are working on taking those away) and not voting for MORE of the same old job killing pols?
Maybe this is why the DHS is loading up, literally, so that when the po folks do come to DC with their pitchforks that'll be all they will have.
pretty simple: no fucking jobs, no money, and higher prices. people are hanging on by a thread while living with generations of different family members in the same house/apartment. and as far as TPTB/MSM Is concerned, things are improving and we are NOT in a recession. truth is, WERE FUCKED
Deduct the vast quantities of petroleum product Obama & Entourage have been burning and the picture is even more glum...
the consumers are tapped out. wages show negative real growth rates, people dropping out of labor force and those that are employed know full well that if they make a decent wage there is a target painted on their backs to be replaced by high school graduates at min wage )))) (oh and thats where you get 28yr old traders who can accumulate 20% of all ES volume). so yeah, people are tapped out. but do they defend their life style? do they help their kids and grand kids to enjoy a decent life style? you bet! how sustainable is it? we are about to find out in the coming years. kids and grand kids will not or will not be able to support their parents/grandparents in their old age who are about to be tapped out from their retirement savings. state lottery? scratch offs? ))) oh yeah they do that too- typical. casino trips? sure. i gave up trying to understand how people afford what they do when common sense tells you they shouldnt be able to afford whatever they do- but then again you find out about student loans, subprime car loans etc.- the system REWARDS profligates and punishes prudent people living within their means
This is just a hunch. I hope I'm wrong. Flash Crash and then some> Next week. It will cleanse the filth out of the market (short term)
God, I could only hope. Then that means some part of our markets are functioning as they should. This constant black magic levitation is driving me crazy.
What is this word "crash" you speak of?
Does anyone actually believe the Federal bureacracy will ever understand the concepts of honest reporting of facts ever......?
Potentially, but only post-revolution....
Two answers to this conundrum assuming you still work:
1. live at work, sleep at work, shower at work.
2. same in your car and stay at work...saves gas...no problem.
Reduces the rent too.
3. Ride your bike to work. I've put 2000 miles on my bike in the past couple of years. The exercise doesn't hurt either...
When I used to work in London, I was averaging welll over 2K miles annually. Faster than car, or Public Transport (literally door to door), and apart from the crappy weather, actually quite good fun.
Found the best tires (for 1 inch touring rims) were Continentals. Surprise - just the ones all the Cycle Couriers used too!
The Chinese factory workers that live in nearby dormitories seem to love it. Welcome back nineteenth century, we missed you. /sarcasm.
I've been driving to TX from CO several times/year for that past 15 years. Since 2008 the drop off in traffic on the road has been, "eerie". No I can't quantify this, but I recognize trends when I see them.
Use the same rule of thumb except in SoCal. Now can get places a lot faster even during rush hour. Except Beverly Hills. That is almost continual gridlock. No pain for the kleptocrats. Pedal to the metal.
My commute to the Skunk Works used to be 50-60 minutes...the last three years I can zip there in 20 mins ripping along at 90 mph. (That's pretty fast for those of you on the metric system.)
Dog
Move along sheeple, peak oil like evolution is a myth and it is just yet another roadblock to the American Dream/Manifest Destiny. Don't matter that the economy has stalled in tandem with a plateauing of oil production at cheap enough levels to sufficiently fund the debt economy, that's just a coincidence.
Good to see an article on this, I've been watching that data for over a year now and it does not bode well.
I got into a disagreement with an Obama fan about the state of the economy last year and brought this up, the idiot actually replied that gasoline consumption is not an economic indicator (but of course, GDP and the Dow Jones were) and that it was actually a good thing that less gas was being used. Whether he was just conditioned beyond redemption or born deeply stupid I'm still not sure but he certainly considered himself "informed" and "intelligent"- all the smart people on TV told him so.
well is that not a coinkydink, global warming comes at a time when people will have less money for gas, because they have no job. So, its a good thing then that gas consumption is waaaay down, to protect the environment and all, and not actually an economic indicator at all. So, no need to look at gas consumption, quick look to the stock market everything is fine. See.
there is also a new generation that prefers a smartphone to a car and an old one that has already driven millions of miles
Plenty of savings possible, if you remember how consumption in the rest of the world looks like
Believe me now??...MY MAIN MAN never sleeps!!...
one eye open, all the freakin time
http://www.idivamemphis.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/gas_prices_1.jpg
LOL, classic!
yeah, how do they do that...gas usage down by bunches (barrels) and prices up?
supply and demand curves be damned..
same with gas produced round the great lakes going up and down in price and used in the local economy..there is no pressure (sic) in supply or demand, so why does the price move?
Half of us now have bicycles Tyler .....
I am extremely happy that ZH seems to have finally adopted the only metrics that actually matters, CRUDE OIL PRICE.
I have no doubt that the only thing that the Fed/Gov look at as the only metric to make any decision is the crude oil price and anything, any political and war decision goes around.........CRUDE OIL PRICE.
USA and the Western Civilization cannot, I repeat CANNOT exist in the current form, without crude oil abundance.
http://www.natural-environment.com/blog/2008/03/06/uses-of-crude-oil/
Here are some common products that are made from oil:
It would be extremely difficult (probably impossible?) to live a civilized life in a developed country without using oil. Even those of us who are concerned about the environment, can’t help but use products that are derived from crude oil. Sad but true.
Thousands of americans died in Iraq for this and thousands more will die, so we can live a life defined by the above mentioned products.
The Fed can do nothing, absolutely nothing else, but follow orders from the White House and Congress, ultimately RESTRICTED BY CRUDE OIL PRICE.
It is crude oil that broke Lehman, it is crude oil that will break QEinfinity because the urge to save a rotten financial system has rotten the real economy.
At this point, the Financial System and the Real Economy are at war, hence one of them has to die so the other can survive.
Nice work EKM. +1 'Titty Bars', are long crude.
Few people know that plastics industry cannot exist without crude oil.
YC, can you imagine a life without plastic products?
The intake manifolds of most cars are made of plastic.
Most people don't realize that they eat(refined distillate) crude in their everyday staples.
Back to your question EKM, NO...
Kingsford Charcoal is about 60% petrol.
Yuck.
The truth is that we waste alot of oil. It goes hand in hand with the financial system.
As collapse continues, we'll stop wasting both oil and money.
One of the most obvious oil wasters is the "discount Airline" business model.
Tell me how seat costs have collapsed while oil prices have quadrupled, if there is not indirect free FED financing in there somewhere I will be very surprised...
.
one of them has to die
FED has little choice but to throw .gov under the bus, and jack rates eventually, or else risk going Weimar which is certain ruin.
FED is not technically part of .gov. And given their regional presence across the present-day US, it is possible they are ok with overseeing 10 US'es of A instead of the current arrangement. After a Soviet-style breakup, get us all infighting and finance every end of it...
USA is too big a project to maintain, so it must be broken down into smaller, more manageable projects -- some of which can be allowed to fail.
Fed is fully a gov department, but it has two bosses, President and House Chairman currently occupied by Obama and Boehner, both left wingers.
Thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians died in Iraq for this and thousands more will both die and commit suicide, so we can live a life defined by the above mentioned products.
There, fixed it for you.
People who aren't working don't drive to work.
When they don't have a job they don't go on drives that aren't necessary.
Except people on Social Security. Occasionally I see someone who is older (80's or 90's) on the road and it fucks up my commute. I don't hate older people, I just think that during rush hour if you don't need to be on the road, you shouldn't be.
Don't be mad, probably on their way to their colonoscopy or chemotherapy treatment. Those Doctors don't work nights and weekends.
Or, they are going to see their financial advisor to find how if they try to take profits on the 2009-2013 FED jizz market gains to pay for the medical treatments to save their life they are going to get screwed by the I.R.S.
That's true. It's just that I live in an overcrowded state on the eastern coast, so driving is like a sport since there are too many people living here.
Does anyone know how long that sink hole was underneath that guy's house in Florida before it sucked him in?
Does anyone know how long that sink hole was underneath that guy's house in Florida before it sucked him in?
I'll try to explain Florida to you. The whole state is sitting on top of a potential sinkhole geologically. Under the whole of Florida runs 20-30 feet down mini rivers everywhere. Naturally or manmade these rivers dry up or a collapse happens somewhere causing it to divert to another mini river leaving a void that can eventually collapse or washout. Somewhere the river under that guys house dried up or was diverted. Florida is a swamp. I live on the Gulf Coast.
Consider the juice plant in Orlando, Fl. The "Simply" orange, lemon,grapefruit brand takes in product from around the world year round so we have fresh juice. This is handled first in Orlando and then a huge pipe ships pulp/juice several miles away to make final product using a huge amount of water pulled from wells underground. Overtime this has to deplete natural reserves causing these voids. I am not saying this plant caused any particular sinkhole, Just the ultimate results of water depletion everywhere in Fl. And then nature does her thing too.
Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier! Down goes Frazier!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuQAEVLljF4
Weak analysis.
Let me use myself as an example. When the crisis hit and it was clear that any kind of debt was a noose around my neck, I did all I could to get rid of it. One of the things I became very focused on was our energy consumption, both at home and when driving, as I saw that painless savings could be made by readjusting my habits; reduce heating, installing energy conserving glass in our windows, switching to more energy efficient light bulbs, and improving insulation around doors and windows, and change my driving habits.
We are now debt free and continue to spend between 15-20% less energy than we did pre-crisis.
You don't get a 40% improvement in the efficiency of the entire national fleet of vehicles in 5 year period. Just think what you're saying, what it'd mean.
I used to live in a country where I didn't need to do such things to stay comfortable.
We are now no better than any other shithole on this planet, well, except Africa, Middle East, Far East, Britain....
Ok, so why is gas still in the 3.50 a gallon range? Why not 2.50 or 1.50? The Fed money printing, yaaa!
Eventually it will drop. They can not store it indefinitely. especially summer blend.
It's being exported.
It is definitely less travel due to significant job reductions, economy and less general travel(leisure) due to money. People cannot afford to fill up their boats and lake traffic is way down. I live in Georgia and attend many of our state fairs and festivals. Attendance was way down last Spring, Summer and Fall. Purchases by attendees were awful. There were a huge number of new fair vendors trying to sell anything because that was their new homemade job but people were not buying. Construction related traffic is dead around Atlanta. I never see cement trucks anymore. Most Concrete plants are still closed. The boat show in Atlanta was awful this year. They had half the square footage exibit space compared to mid 2000s. Example my friend that works for Sea Ray at the show sold 60 large boats for Sea Ray. A couple of million dollar vessels. in 2007 they were selling 160 at the show. He felt they at a good show selling 60.
It is the economy although better but still very sick. However, there are also many more home related Tech jobs due to the internet.
I won't downvote you, but the economy is not better.
CEMENT (official report)
(Data in thousand metric tons unless otherwise noted)
Domestic Production and Use:
In 2011, about 66 million tons of portland cement and 1.8 million tons of masonry cement were produced at 103 plants in 35 States. Cement also was produced at two plants in Puerto Rico. Output improved slightly overall but was still at a very low level relative to the more than 90-million-ton-per-year levels of 2002-07 and reflected recent plant closures and idlings, and idlings of spare kilns at active plants. Although slightly higher than levels in 2009–10, sales volumes in 2011 were still more than 57 million tons below the record level of 2005. The overall value of sales was about $6.6 billion. Most of the cement was used to make concrete, worth at least $37 billion. About 71% of cement sales went to ready-mixed concrete producers, 12% to concrete product manufacturers, 10% to contractors (mainly road paving), 3% to building materials dealers, and 4% to other users. In descending order, Texas, California, Missouri, Florida, Pennsylvania,Michigan, and Alabama were the seven leading cement-producing States and accounted for about 53% of U.S. production..
http://minerals.er.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/mcs-2012-cemen.pdf
Cement data is even more telling and reliable as a forward indicator since it involves building than oil, which is more current. The real telling piece of data is that despite a rise in energy prices, the price of cement has remained stagnant. The 2009-2011 numbers are clearly showing a decline from 2007-2008.
The economy has clearly not improved and there are no visible short term for improvement, per the construction industry.
Energy is input to motors for them to operate.
Potential energy is input to engines for them to operate.
Just sayin'.
***OT****
BBC is running a program right now that is a debate between those who want the UK to leave the EU, and those who want the UK to remain in the EU. On the "Get Out" side are Daniel Hannan and Nigel Farage.
(Post Show Re-Cap: Hannan and Farage win the debate on both eloquence and message, each getting in a great quip or two...this is worth Tyler running for generating Sunday chat, unless another EU member goes belly-up this weekend [Slovenia?] and pre-empts it.)
Didn't see it.
But if it followed the usual pattern of debates on this topic, those in favour of Britain staying in the EU produce scare stories and use fear to make their point. 'Isolationism' being one of their favourites.