80% Chance Of 40% Silver Short Squeeze

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the last 20 years, Silver shorts (in Silver futures, based on the Commitment of Traders data) has only been as high as it is currently for five periods. Four of those five periods were followed by considerable rallies in silver prices. The one period where prices flatlined (fell modestly) was a slow and steady rise in shorts (as opposed to the spike-like move currently). Of course, with near record amounts on the short side of the boat, it would seem clear where Silver should go next but this time is different we will be told.

  • Jul 1997: +70% rise over 29 weeks,
  • Nov 2000: -13.5% in 53 weeks,
  • Oct 2002: +13.2% in 12 weeks,
  • Apr 2003 +19% in 24 weeks,
  • Aug 2005 +114% in 37 weeks,

Average +40.5%

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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Mon, 04/08/2013 - 15:55 | 3423355 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

whatever... I'll just wait for the collapse.
Keep it down so I can buy more for the rest of the year. I ain't in no hurry.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 15:56 | 3423364 ghandi
ghandi's picture

Sittin' on the top of the (silver) bay

wastin' time'

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:05 | 3423400 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

All the dumb money (and most everyone else) is short silver as it sits near support. Of course the other side is there were a lot of shorts in the yen a while back and they turned out to be right. It's going to be fun to watch.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:16 | 3423446 Dr Paul Krugman
Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:21 | 3423469 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Interesting, I must admit. Well, fuck it! I ain't selling and that's that!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:21 | 3423481 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

The guy running the business is selling but the people who idolize him are buying - sounds like a ponzi scheme if there ever was one.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:24 | 3423500 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Maybe... I made up my mind long before I heard of Eric Sprott. Doesn't mean I'm right though. We'll see.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:42 | 3423585 Spider
Spider's picture

With mining costs for silver companies at close to $24 per ounce in 2012 - only so far it can practically drop.  I like this risk-reward proposal and I think the commercials know this - so long hedgie shorts!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303691-the-true-cost-to-mine-silver-complete-2012-figures

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:55 | 3423650 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Somehow I am reminded of Sex Panther cologne. "60% of the time it works every time!"

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:07 | 3423713 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Kinsey once wrote that 60% of men are 2/3 homosexual.

It's not easy to be both incoherent and completely wrong, but if you work at it...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:25 | 3423806 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Ah, now is all make sense!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:45 | 3423860 strannick
strannick's picture

Sprott always sells before he does another PSLV placement. The PSLV placement then puts more pressure on the physical supplies, which provides support for the silver price v. paper silver, which then encourages demand for another PSLV placement...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:27 | 3424012 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

No, Boris is mean high ratio of gay Amerikan men. Silver price still is confusion.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:43 | 3424067 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

 

I'm buying Silver at low tide. Will sell at high tide.

Where the tide is between now and then is not important.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:46 | 3423895 akak
akak's picture

Maybe that explains why I feel like 1/3 lesbian 40% of the time.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:25 | 3424003 Terrorist
Terrorist's picture

I tell my wife I am a closet Lesbian.
But more importantly, 80% of statistics used in casual conversation are made up on the spot.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:42 | 3424255 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

I now realize that my wife is a lesbian trapped inside a woman's body. My chest is as hairless as an Apache's, and she keeps telling me how she loves that smooth chest.

Now I understand. 60% of women are lesbians 35% of the time. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:10 | 3423949 green888
green888's picture

can you be married to both a man and a woman and not be committing bigamy ?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:06 | 3424130 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

about 35% of the time.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 12:44 | 3426981 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Once gay marriage becoms the norm, then triparte/plurality marriage is next on the agenda followed by beastial marriage.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:34 | 3424440 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Kinsey once wrote that 60% of men are 2/3 homosexual.

Well,I must admit I am a 100% male lesbian.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 02:27 | 3425250 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I once cleaned up the mess I made in the Garage. So... I must be about 1% female I guess...

 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 05:53 | 3425365 Titus
Titus's picture

If I was even 1 percent female I would never stop touching myself. Oh wait....

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:11 | 3423957 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

100% of statistics can be made to show whatever you want.................50% of the time.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:42 | 3424482 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

"95% of statistics are made up right there on the spot..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUK6zjtUj00 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 21:00 | 3424527 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

80% of this game is half mental.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:41 | 3424240 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

I am not a Doctor like Mister Krugman,..but isn't that shares in PHS he's selling?

Maybe he wants a new yacht or has a new girlfriend?

Leave the poor(ahem) guy alone, he has enough silver.

Do you?

My 401k equivalent is full of PHS, I can see the building where its stored from my work.

Almost as good as looking at the picture of that dammed lake!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:32 | 3423543 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

krug, the silver sprott is selling is not his. sprott's clients are redeeming their investment.  the canadian economy went officially tits up just recently.  housing in canada is deflating.  jobs are disappearing.  people are short of cash.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:50 | 3423627 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Never let the facts interfere with Krugmans illusions.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:59 | 3423669 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Based on his posts, sometimes I wonder if that's the real Krugman.  I don't know if anybody could act like that.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:11 | 3423746 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Not Krugman

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:19 | 3423781 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This Krugman sometimes posts coherent comments. I don't think the real Krugman is capable of that.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 22:25 | 3424771 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Exactly.  The real Krugman is irrational, but his "authority" has been set by the "establishment" so the chumps who think they get power from the establishment go for the irrational, state sanctioned false narrative.

However, the twit knows not to evben attempt to answer this...  which is why I have to tally how many times I ask him...

--------------------

Hi Paul,

You might have missed this question the last 10 times I asked it, so here we go for try number 11 (and yes, I will continue to increment the numbers until you answer the question):

If growth is defined in monetary terms and money is debt (interest bearing) please explain how exponential growth of debt is sustainable into eternity. If money (debt) exponential growth is not sustainable into eternity, then WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE EXPONENTIAL MONEY (DEBT) GROWTH FAILS? I made the question bold in case you are having vision problems and couldn't see the question. Hopefully this helps. TIA...

Consequences of Krugman's Pimped Fractional Reserve Banking 2) - Poverty - Debt is not a choice

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juQc0rLdB-E

Do you get off enslaving the proletariat to debt owed to the people who made you and can also trash you like so much garbage?

Aren't you just a modern version of a well paid house slave?  How's that reality going to resonate throughout eternity?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:17 | 3423974 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

the real krugman is to much of a cunt or coward if you must, to enter fight club.....i could see some guy raising his hand and little pauly curling up in the fetal position.....imagine him as a child.....christ the shit he must have taken....him 7yrs old with his stupid fucking beard...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:25 | 3424005 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I want to see him fight William Shatner.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:41 | 3424249 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 the canadian economy went officially tits up just recently. housing in canada is deflating. jobs are disappearing. people are short of cash.

 

JUST like ours did, because the dumb pricks went ass up into property prices that were worth a $.25 on the dollar./Loonie.Said it would hit them and now it finallly has.Welcome the USA part deaux.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 00:07 | 3425095 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Australia will be the last one standing eh?

Bad luck Canada good try...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:56 | 3424292 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

WRONG . it is Sprott foundation that is selling. This is not standard redemption.

Silver's buggest pumper Sprott  is selling ?

ZH reader, it is high time you silver bugs moved to Gold.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 06:30 | 3425408 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

 

 

1)  Physical Commodity, Paper (debt), Miner Equity, Royalty Capture

2)  Gold, Silver

3)  Invested Assets, Reserve Liquidity, Net Customer Flow

In the case of Sprott, a nifty 3-axis matrix

"Selling" is MEANINGLESS without actually knowing how the proceeds are being used.

 

 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:32 | 3426014 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

If you wish to you can look up the change in physical holdings of Silver Bullion by ETF's, in general, for the month of March. T he answer is very interesting; it's plus 83.1 Tonnes, Metric. I repeat; plus 83.1 Tonnes, Metric. This was very helpful to me in making my decision to buy December 2013 Silver contracts at $27.340 yesterday. It's often useful to do your homework if you want to know what's going on in the world around you.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:51 | 3423636 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Hey Doc Kruggy, STFU.....when were you an expert at SILVER??? You can keep writing your illogical senseless economic jibberish garble but you def aint no authority on silver so I suggest you SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU WORTHLESS JBAG.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:03 | 3423699 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

That's not the real one. That Chuck Norris guy may be though.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:45 | 3424068 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

Am the real Krugman

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:07 | 3423944 kill switch
kill switch's picture

I think you have understated it...somewhat...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:53 | 3423645 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

KrugTroll is running hot this evening!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:57 | 3423658 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sorry, were you talking about Goldman, or the Fed?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:00 | 3423682 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Ponzi scheme implies asset creation out of thin air. Something you can't do with silver.

(and this, preventing banksters from tampering with it, was the whole point btw)

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3423717 orez65
orez65's picture

"The only money is gold"

JP Morgan testifying under oath to the US Congress.

Silver just follows gold and it is also money.

US Dollars are NOTES, a promise, a piece of paper signed by a couple of government bureaucrats.

I'll take my chances with gold and sliver.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:17 | 3423772 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I'll take my chances with gold and sliver.

Exactly.  You will speculate.

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