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80% Chance Of 40% Silver Short Squeeze

Tyler Durden's picture


In the last 20 years, Silver shorts (in Silver futures, based on the Commitment of Traders data) has only been as high as it is currently for five periods. Four of those five periods were followed by considerable rallies in silver prices. The one period where prices flatlined (fell modestly) was a slow and steady rise in shorts (as opposed to the spike-like move currently). Of course, with near record amounts on the short side of the boat, it would seem clear where Silver should go next but this time is different we will be told.

  • Jul 1997: +70% rise over 29 weeks,
  • Nov 2000: -13.5% in 53 weeks,
  • Oct 2002: +13.2% in 12 weeks,
  • Apr 2003 +19% in 24 weeks,
  • Aug 2005 +114% in 37 weeks,

Average +40.5%


Chart: Bloomberg


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Mon, 04/08/2013 - 15:55 | 3423355 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

whatever... I'll just wait for the collapse.
Keep it down so I can buy more for the rest of the year. I ain't in no hurry.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 15:56 | 3423364 ghandi
ghandi's picture

Sittin' on the top of the (silver) bay

wastin' time'

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:05 | 3423400 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

All the dumb money (and most everyone else) is short silver as it sits near support. Of course the other side is there were a lot of shorts in the yen a while back and they turned out to be right. It's going to be fun to watch.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:16 | 3423446 Dr Paul Krugman
Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:21 | 3423469 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Interesting, I must admit. Well, fuck it! I ain't selling and that's that!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:21 | 3423481 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

The guy running the business is selling but the people who idolize him are buying - sounds like a ponzi scheme if there ever was one.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:24 | 3423500 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Maybe... I made up my mind long before I heard of Eric Sprott. Doesn't mean I'm right though. We'll see.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:42 | 3423585 Spider
Spider's picture

With mining costs for silver companies at close to $24 per ounce in 2012 - only so far it can practically drop.  I like this risk-reward proposal and I think the commercials know this - so long hedgie shorts!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:55 | 3423650 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Somehow I am reminded of Sex Panther cologne. "60% of the time it works every time!"

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:07 | 3423713 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Kinsey once wrote that 60% of men are 2/3 homosexual.

It's not easy to be both incoherent and completely wrong, but if you work at it...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:25 | 3423806 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Ah, now is all make sense!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:45 | 3423860 strannick
strannick's picture

Sprott always sells before he does another PSLV placement. The PSLV placement then puts more pressure on the physical supplies, which provides support for the silver price v. paper silver, which then encourages demand for another PSLV placement...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:27 | 3424012 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

No, Boris is mean high ratio of gay Amerikan men. Silver price still is confusion.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:43 | 3424067 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture


I'm buying Silver at low tide. Will sell at high tide.

Where the tide is between now and then is not important.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:46 | 3423895 akak
akak's picture

Maybe that explains why I feel like 1/3 lesbian 40% of the time.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:25 | 3424003 Terrorist
Terrorist's picture

I tell my wife I am a closet Lesbian.
But more importantly, 80% of statistics used in casual conversation are made up on the spot.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:42 | 3424255 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

I now realize that my wife is a lesbian trapped inside a woman's body. My chest is as hairless as an Apache's, and she keeps telling me how she loves that smooth chest.

Now I understand. 60% of women are lesbians 35% of the time. Or maybe it's the other way around.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:10 | 3423949 green888
green888's picture

can you be married to both a man and a woman and not be committing bigamy ?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:06 | 3424130 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

about 35% of the time.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 12:44 | 3426981 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Once gay marriage becoms the norm, then triparte/plurality marriage is next on the agenda followed by beastial marriage.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:34 | 3424440 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Kinsey once wrote that 60% of men are 2/3 homosexual.

Well,I must admit I am a 100% male lesbian.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 02:27 | 3425250 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I once cleaned up the mess I made in the Garage. So... I must be about 1% female I guess...


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 05:53 | 3425365 Titus
Titus's picture

If I was even 1 percent female I would never stop touching myself. Oh wait....

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:11 | 3423957 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

100% of statistics can be made to show whatever you want.................50% of the time.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:42 | 3424482 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

"95% of statistics are made up right there on the spot..." 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 21:00 | 3424527 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

80% of this game is half mental.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:41 | 3424240 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

I am not a Doctor like Mister Krugman,..but isn't that shares in PHS he's selling?

Maybe he wants a new yacht or has a new girlfriend?

Leave the poor(ahem) guy alone, he has enough silver.

Do you?

My 401k equivalent is full of PHS, I can see the building where its stored from my work.

Almost as good as looking at the picture of that dammed lake!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:32 | 3423543 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

krug, the silver sprott is selling is not his. sprott's clients are redeeming their investment.  the canadian economy went officially tits up just recently.  housing in canada is deflating.  jobs are disappearing.  people are short of cash.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:50 | 3423627 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Never let the facts interfere with Krugmans illusions.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:59 | 3423669 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Based on his posts, sometimes I wonder if that's the real Krugman.  I don't know if anybody could act like that.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:11 | 3423746 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Not Krugman

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:19 | 3423781 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This Krugman sometimes posts coherent comments. I don't think the real Krugman is capable of that.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 22:25 | 3424771 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Exactly.  The real Krugman is irrational, but his "authority" has been set by the "establishment" so the chumps who think they get power from the establishment go for the irrational, state sanctioned false narrative.

However, the twit knows not to evben attempt to answer this...  which is why I have to tally how many times I ask him...


Hi Paul,

You might have missed this question the last 10 times I asked it, so here we go for try number 11 (and yes, I will continue to increment the numbers until you answer the question):

If growth is defined in monetary terms and money is debt (interest bearing) please explain how exponential growth of debt is sustainable into eternity. If money (debt) exponential growth is not sustainable into eternity, then WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE EXPONENTIAL MONEY (DEBT) GROWTH FAILS? I made the question bold in case you are having vision problems and couldn't see the question. Hopefully this helps. TIA...

Consequences of Krugman's Pimped Fractional Reserve Banking 2) - Poverty - Debt is not a choice

Do you get off enslaving the proletariat to debt owed to the people who made you and can also trash you like so much garbage?

Aren't you just a modern version of a well paid house slave?  How's that reality going to resonate throughout eternity?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:17 | 3423974 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

the real krugman is to much of a cunt or coward if you must, to enter fight club.....i could see some guy raising his hand and little pauly curling up in the fetal position.....imagine him as a child.....christ the shit he must have taken....him 7yrs old with his stupid fucking beard...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:25 | 3424005 Agstacker
Agstacker's picture

I want to see him fight William Shatner.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:41 | 3424249 DosZap
DosZap's picture

 the canadian economy went officially tits up just recently. housing in canada is deflating. jobs are disappearing. people are short of cash.


JUST like ours did, because the dumb pricks went ass up into property prices that were worth a $.25 on the dollar./Loonie.Said it would hit them and now it finallly has.Welcome the USA part deaux.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 00:07 | 3425095 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Australia will be the last one standing eh?

Bad luck Canada good try...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:56 | 3424292 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

WRONG . it is Sprott foundation that is selling. This is not standard redemption.

Silver's buggest pumper Sprott  is selling ?

ZH reader, it is high time you silver bugs moved to Gold.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 06:30 | 3425408 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture



1)  Physical Commodity, Paper (debt), Miner Equity, Royalty Capture

2)  Gold, Silver

3)  Invested Assets, Reserve Liquidity, Net Customer Flow

In the case of Sprott, a nifty 3-axis matrix

"Selling" is MEANINGLESS without actually knowing how the proceeds are being used.



Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:32 | 3426014 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

If you wish to you can look up the change in physical holdings of Silver Bullion by ETF's, in general, for the month of March. T he answer is very interesting; it's plus 83.1 Tonnes, Metric. I repeat; plus 83.1 Tonnes, Metric. This was very helpful to me in making my decision to buy December 2013 Silver contracts at $27.340 yesterday. It's often useful to do your homework if you want to know what's going on in the world around you.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:51 | 3423636 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Hey Doc Kruggy, STFU.....when were you an expert at SILVER??? You can keep writing your illogical senseless economic jibberish garble but you def aint no authority on silver so I suggest you SHUT THE FUCK UP YOU WORTHLESS JBAG.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:03 | 3423699 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

That's not the real one. That Chuck Norris guy may be though.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:45 | 3424068 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

Am the real Krugman

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:07 | 3423944 kill switch
kill switch's picture

I think you have understated it...somewhat...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:53 | 3423645 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

KrugTroll is running hot this evening!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:57 | 3423658 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Sorry, were you talking about Goldman, or the Fed?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:00 | 3423682 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Ponzi scheme implies asset creation out of thin air. Something you can't do with silver.

(and this, preventing banksters from tampering with it, was the whole point btw)


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3423717 orez65
orez65's picture

"The only money is gold"

JP Morgan testifying under oath to the US Congress.

Silver just follows gold and it is also money.

US Dollars are NOTES, a promise, a piece of paper signed by a couple of government bureaucrats.

I'll take my chances with gold and sliver.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:17 | 3423772 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I'll take my chances with gold and sliver.

Exactly.  You will speculate.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:20 | 3423783 akak
akak's picture

A bet on governmental malfeasance, and on official currency manipulation and debasement, is not a speculation --- it is an acknowledgment of reality.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:20 | 3423986 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

speculation involves the risk of taking it in the ass if you are wrong, Dr Kruger here would rather play it safe and just take it in the ass 100% of the time and not risk it.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:57 | 3424105 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

No, he would rather YOU play it safe and take it in the ass 100% of the time and not risk it.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:44 | 3423881 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

As opposed to speculating that I can find another greater fool to give me something of value in exchange for this worthless green on green picture of a dead guy?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:14 | 3423959 dumpster
dumpster's picture



been speculating since 4.00 silver .. and your choice time frame was a bet on   solar panels in obums 300 million investment .. now an investment of 100 million to track the krugman brain .

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:47 | 3424501 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

The paradox is that if you like technology you have to like Silver evidently. And it you like Solar investment you have to love Silver.


The funny thing is that a short squeeze on Silver could come from a stronger economy ...


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 21:09 | 3424552 Braverdave
Braverdave's picture

Since $ 1.00 here when my dad would turn extra paper dollars into silver dollars. And quarters and dimes.

My silver has cost me a bit more over time. But his is mine now so it makes for a nice average.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:43 | 3424491 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

HOw do you call buying Treasuries? Investing? I will sell my Gold and Silver when the treasuries are fairly priced....

Wait for the Gold price when the Treasuries yield on the 10 years goes double digit. The only way this can be prevented is if people pay attention to what Druckenmiller has been saying. So far nobody pays attention.

Aslo if food commodities rise, you will see Silver rise. The relationship exists since Polybius visiting Portugal. The price of Calf in Silver has been multiplied by 6 !!! OMG!!!! ..... in 2,230 years though.... There are physical and technological constraints to the production of real present goods.

The USD is a figment of the imagination or an abstraction, all currency have always been.

Consider this: in 1260 the French livre was about 460 grams, but 1790 it was 5 -6 grams with a currency crisis in 1721 (John Law) and hte livre plunging to 2.5 grams.


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:27 | 3433836 auric1234
auric1234's picture

So, if you save in gold and silver, you're "speculating", but if you save in USD-denominated debt (or in physical USD paper), you're "investing". Is that so?

You seem to be totally confused about the difference between real value and nominal value.


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:15 | 3423769 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I believe that Eric's fund sells at a large premium. He may be arbitraging the over priced shares for under priced metal (like CEF used to do). 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:58 | 3424107 Al Huxley
Tue, 04/09/2013 - 12:39 | 3426961 peruchocanuck
peruchocanuck's picture

Sprott is selling physical to buy silver miners, simple as that, with current valuations so cheap....he did the same back in 2011:

"Every dollar of money that was raised by selling shares of [the Trust].. was reinvested in silver or silver equities,"

Mr. Sprott is going ready

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:35 | 3424037 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

So what Krugman is saying is to buy gold I guess...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:48 | 3424274 HyperinflatmyNutts
HyperinflatmyNutts's picture

Krugman!!!  When the fuck r u going to answer this question???? 

"If growth is defined in monetary terms and money is debt (interest bearing), please explain how exponential growth of debt is sustainable into eternity.

If money (debt) exponential growth is not sustainable into eternity, then WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE EXPONENTIAL MONEY (DEBT) GROWTH FAILS?


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 22:33 | 3424797 TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

You, Mr Krugman, would know all aboual ponzi schemes, seeing as how the monetary system,(something of which you claim to know something about), thanks to the Fed, is based on one. Just like the govt. run Social Security. Do these ponzi's come with your approval? Don't be such a hipocrite and call things llike they are. Of course you will never do that, your statist world view would never allow the truth, simply because your world view is based on lies and deception.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:25 | 3423507 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Shortages are ocurring, and they promised Sprott a Greek isle. Or they have put a gun in his face.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:23 | 3423497 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

When's the last time you poured a scotch for Jon Corzine?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:25 | 3423513 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

sprott selling on behalf of stupid clients; or weak hand clients

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:28 | 3423519 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Profit taking before the price gets hammered down before the price gets launched skyward.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:33 | 3423551 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Profit taking?  Silver is at a three year low.

And if the price gets "hammered down", wouldn't that prove this article is wrong?  And how easy is it to say, "Silver's price is getting launched any day"?  Pretty easy, considering you doomers have said that for the last two years while losing half of your investment.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:41 | 3423570 akak
akak's picture

As usual, you not only obfuscate but outright lie.

For one thing, silver is NOT at a three-year low, as it was well less than $20 an ounce throughout the summer of 2010, which if I am not mistaken was less than three years ago.  For another, you overlook the fact that the price of silver is up over 100% in the last four years, and up over 500% in the last ten years. 

Your cherry-picking of data to support your disingenuous arguments is worthy of a PhD in Keynesian crackpottery.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:12 | 3423604 AL_SWEARENGEN

Aint it always a trial for certain cocksuckers, trying to pick the cover which conceals best that they fucking pissed themself.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:48 | 3423613 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

30 month low - whatever.

And who cares about where you have been when it is where you are going. 

The trend suggests the price of silver is falling, and falling fast.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:51 | 3423626 akak
akak's picture

Actually, both the trend, and ALL of monetary history, suggest that you are wrong, and that it is the fiat US dollar which is falling and falling fast --- not to mention whatever remaining shreds of integrity, honesty and intelligence that you may have once held.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:52 | 3423634 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Good, let silver fall, I definitely look forward to some bargains.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 00:11 | 3425105 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Dear doctor

Please let ZH readers know when bottom tic is in.

Thanks in advance...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:39 | 3424235 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Integrity? Krugman?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:51 | 3423633 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Typical statist strategy to take a close-up snapshot and try to tell your own story, but when you pan out to the wide-angle view it's an entirely different scene.

What I'm trying to say is take the last 100 years of the dollar instead of the last 30 months of silver.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:54 | 3423640 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Where I am going is a new world.

In that world, money is honest, markets and things like Nobel Prizes are not manipulated.

I'll take the silver.  You take the dollars.

We will both have the opportunity to test our beliefs.



Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:01 | 3423676 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Your bunker is not a new world; there are plenty of people who, for the last 40 years, have moved out of society in fear of a looming hyperinflation.

And by the by, I take it none of you doomers use dollars?  Is that right?

I doubt it.  You all talk the talk, but when it comes down to it, you all use dollars.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3423693 akak
akak's picture


You all talk the talk, but when it comes down to it, you all use dollars.

Yes, we do, because we are FORCED to do so by the COERCIVE power of the fascist, Big Brother state that you so dearly love and kneel to.

If your fiat currencies are so wonderful, why do governments the world over have to FORCE their citizens to use them, and not only outlaw but actively suppress any possible competition to their monetary monopoly franchise?

Why not open your wonderful fiat currencies to a little hard-money competition, eh Krugpigtroll?

But oh no, but you can't have actual monetary freedom running rampant now, can you?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:21 | 3423789 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Maybe the currencies get used because 99% of people have brains attached to their spines and aren't doomers like you and your ilk.  Maybe it is the people who run the government.  Have you thought of that?

No, you haven't.  You assume everything that is done under the governent is by some evil minded jewish banker. 

Public schools?  Evil jewish banker.

Unions?  Evil jewish banker.

40 hour work week?  Evil jewish banker.

Road construction?  Evil jewish banker.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:29 | 3423824 Simplifiedfrisbee
Simplifiedfrisbee's picture

It is not entirely the people who are misled. It is the entire fabric of people like you who are misleading.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:30 | 3423830 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

98% loss in the value of the dollar?  Evil jewish banker.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:30 | 3423843 akak
akak's picture


That might be the very first time I ever encountered a strawman, a red herring and an ad hominen all wrapped up in one tidy package!

So much for the logic and intellectual integrity of Krugpigtroll.

It is difficult to know how to even begin to address any of your specious non-sequiturds here.  But it must be acknowledged that I never, at any point, brought up any mention of Jews, whether in banking or otherwise --- that would be you who did so.  So nice if feeble attempt to deflect the real topic here, which was the coercive nature of fiat currencies.

Now, do you care to honestly and directly address that issue?


EDIT:  As expected, nothing but crickets from Krugpigtroll.  Which is only per his usual modus operandi: "I came, I shit, I fled".

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:40 | 3424245 BigJim
BigJim's picture


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:48 | 3425781 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

Now are you speaking of the real Judeans or the fake ones?

Here's a lil insight on the "people" who wish to control the world.  Written many years ago.

Rev 2:9 I know thy works, and tribulation, and poverty, (but thou art rich) and I know the blasphemy of them which say they are Jews, and are not, but are the synagogue of Satan.

John 8:44 Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.

Wow can it be more evident than that who is attempting control today and 2000 years ago??  Yip yip its the serpent hisself.  Dooolllp!!!

PS DR Kruggie I have no idea if you are aremenian, canadian or jewish as it doesn't matter.  Who you serve DOES.  I have no idea whom you serve.  I just wanted everyone here to know who controls this world and it aint the people from Judea.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:33 | 3423838 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Use dollars?  Of course, you ignorant fuck, that's what we have as the common currency.

What about savings? Fuck you and your 36, oh 30 months, whatever....bullshit.

50 years ago a gallon of gas was about $.25/gallon and could be purchased for a 90% silver quarter.

That same 90% silver quarter will still buy a gallon of gas (plus a little more).

If you're the real Dr. Krugman you're either stupid as fuck or highly corrupt (the third choice is some combination of the first two).

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:53 | 3423927 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

Im not a doomer, Im a pirate. (duh) And yes, if taking the dollars that I am readily given and rapidly exchanging them for something of greater and longer lasting value is using them; then yes I do......I imagine that if I gave you dogshit and you could find a fool to trade you silver for said dogshit, you would "use" it too....paper=dogshit ergo krugman loves work here is done.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 02:47 | 3429900 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Yes I am a doomer,

a few months too early,

The cannons don't thunder,

There's nothing to plunder,

I'm an over 40 victim of choomer.

Never meant to last,

Never meant to last

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 21:16 | 3424574 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Well processed tobacco was costing about $20 USD in 1971 and now about $650.

Processed tobacco can not be manipulated because it is not traded in future markets.

The demand and supply are very very stable.

After the demonetization of Silver of 1873, while the demand was booming, price of Tobacco was falling because we had money deflation (not credit deflation). money deflation is wehn the monetary base shrinks or increases slower than productivity.

Now this move on processed tobacco since 1971, I call that hyperinflation.

Low inflation is 5% for Tobacco prices and high is about double digit since 1971.

This madness since 1971 has no precedent in history. The assignat and mandat were quickly followed by sound money. The debasement post 1933 eventually led to Bretton woods, the 1797-1821 paper pound was probably the closest to today. A state of permanent war for the UK, like today a state of permanent war for the US. Even the high inflation up until 1919 was stopped through the calls of Kemmerer and others.

This is a sordid period indeed, of permanent war, mob rule through this despicable demagogry called "democracy" which is the equivalent of the Emperor of Rome having to rule with the objective to please the crowd at the Coliseum. This is an ugly period that some crazies and lunatics have managed to fall in love with.

Hopefully we get to a republic system soon and get rid of this demagocracy. Hopefully we put back the entire assets of bankers in line in order to fill teh gap of depositors (like the good old XIX british style). Enough of this abuse where the "entrepreneurs" and "bankers" get constantly bailed-out and depositors are sheeps.

In the XIX the small notes were replaced by Gold coins so that if you had massive bank failures, the inept and incompetent bankers and capitalists would be wiped off but the small people, provided they kept their Gold coins would be spared. That is a responsible banking arranagement.

In Cyprus we have spared the small depositors, but we still inflict some level of inflation on depositors and capital controls.

The result is that there will be repudiation of this "imposed system" for their "own good" by the people "who know better".





Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:58 | 3423660 willpoi
willpoi's picture

Then dont't buy any krugman! if you don't like these articles stop reading them.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:02 | 3423683 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So you must have been buying silver like crazy on the run toward $50.  And selling now.  Is buy high, sell low what you would consider to be a winning strategy?  Because that is what you are doing when you follow trends.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 07:23 | 3425499 Pumpkin
Pumpkin's picture

The undeniable trend is this:  Since the Federal Reserve Act, the dollar has lost about 95% of its value.  No matter what we own or hold, that trend must at some point be considered.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:01 | 3424112 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

what do the 10 year, 30 year, 100 year trends say for the USD?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:42 | 3424484 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Paulie, are you the love child of MDB? 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 21:36 | 3424609 web bot
web bot's picture

Hey Mr. A... perhaps we've found a new Leo!!!?

If this idiot keeps on posting, this is going to be fun.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:49 | 3423617 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

I sold @ $ 42 added 3 rooms on my house. Lookin to buy back in. I like being my own bank. Just need patience wait for the circle jerk to come back around.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:51 | 3423635 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

You, like any other trader, speculated correctly.  No harm in that.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:55 | 3423651 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Im no trader, I just know history the metals will prevail.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:57 | 3423657 akak
akak's picture

Except when a "speculator" is actually a saver, and chooses to save in a physical metallic medium --- then they are evil hoarders, right?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:01 | 3423686 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

He admitted he traded silver for dollars and then spent the money on a house!

Must you be so illogical?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3423709 akak
akak's picture

Must you be so disingenuous?

Well, being a Keynesian and an apologist for criminal corruption and fascist statism (but I repeat myself), why yes, yes you must.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:14 | 3423760 The Miser
The Miser's picture

Dr. Paul is a perfect example of a person educated beyond his intellegence.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 01:54 | 3425228 agNau
agNau's picture


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:59 | 3423656 bilbert
bilbert's picture

Try this explanation:

"Phone Call to Sprott for Insider Selling Explanation

On September 21st, I called and spoke to Carolyn at Sprott, phone number (888) 362-7172. I asked why there was so much insider selling of Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). Carolyn advised me that Sprott Asset Management, and perhaps Eric Sprott, were selling because of Sprott Physical Silver Trust's (PSLV) 20% premium to net asset value. I have provided a few of the recent and dated insider selling activities of Sprott Asset Management.

I inquired who was making the money by insiders selling Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV). Carolyn advised me:

  • Sprott Asset Management (SAM) made money by selling PSLV at a 20% premium to NAV. SAM then bought physical silver and precious-metal-producing equities. "


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:04 | 3423705 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Still sounds like a ponzi scheme to me.

You don't know what he is buying after he sells the shares.  He could be buying cars and houses.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:11 | 3423728 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Hey Doc Kruggy, you sound like a Pansy Scheme to me.


This effer already accounts for 25% of all the posts on this topic....this fucker aint no authority on silver. Actually he knows jack shit.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:14 | 3423768 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Fuck you Krugturd. He and his followers ought to be tarred and feathered.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:43 | 3423878 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

We keep waiting for the net selling, not quite there yet. My god, the shit won't go below 1500/26 without filling the gap in a hurry.

Come on and short it somoar..

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 01:50 | 3425223 agNau
agNau's picture

This part of the cycle is my favorite by far!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 20:37 | 3429120 GoldForCash
GoldForCash's picture

Eric is not selling his silver....he is selling his customers silver as being ordered to do so. Stupid is every where...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:09 | 3423418 Izznogood
Izznogood's picture

Sittin' on a cock coz I'm gay ...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:47 | 3423616 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Dude, you had plenty of time to delete this... now it is in the anals of ZH history.

(Yes, I know it is spelled annals)

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:52 | 3423641 noless
noless's picture


can we please not be total jackasses? I love that song.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:46 | 3424259 Izznogood
Izznogood's picture

Oh lighten up and watch some of the best comedians in the world

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:15 | 3423444 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

And watch as your precious shiny rocks continue to lose value.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:19 | 3423473 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Jim Willie's latest from 04/07/2013 Dr. Jim Willie, Editor of the Hat Trick Letter, predicts "the economy will implode," and he says, "I don't believe were going to see garden variety powerful inflation. I believe, instead, we're going to get large widespread cut-off of supply chains" as foreigners simply stop accepting the dollar. As far as dollar assets inside the U.S., expect widespread confiscation. Dr. Willie contends, "When the losses from the debt write-downs come, I see tremendous national wealth lost because private accounts are really just bank assets." Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Jim Willie of

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:21 | 3423484 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Jim to the muthafuckin Willie.

The anti-Krugman. 

Nice drop, thanks.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:30 | 3423494 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture


Oh, some doomer who think hyperinflation is imminent.  I bet he has been apart of this group think for the last 40 years, like the rest of the doomer brigade.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:30 | 3423535 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

You should listen to might learn something..........

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:36 | 3423563 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Listen to him say what?  The sky is falling?  Run for your lives?  Move out to the boonies, drill a well, and be a loner?

No thank you - I enjoy our culture, I enjoy people, and I enjoy being a functional member of society.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:39 | 3423581 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I hope you get mugged on the PATH! 

For all your gold.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:43 | 3423593 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I don't own any gold. 

Why would I own gold?

It is a fear trade and I am an optimist.  I believe President Obama and Ben Bernanke are doing the right things to help the economy.  Now if Congress would help we might have a recovery.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:46 | 3423607 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Ok, now I know you're a troll with nothing better to do, becuase there's no way you believe that crap.

Oh look, a skittle-shitting unicorn!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:48 | 3423622 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Congress is run by AIPAC you nit-wit

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3423719 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

No, Congress is run by the voters

Did AIPAC get everyone to vote how they did? 


Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:29 | 3423825 DollarMenu
DollarMenu's picture

They control the ballot, dingbat.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:51 | 3423628 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You keyed that comment via a personal computer, thus you own both silver and gold. 

More factual inadequacy from the High Queen of Factual Inadequacy, Dr. Paul Krugman, ladies and germs.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:08 | 3423726 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Right, the one good use for precious metals is industrial use...

I have written this time and time again.

As for investments, I own none.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:52 | 3424291 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Actually you've invested capital in a computer, in order to publish your terrible blog and receive payments from the bureau of disinformation or the NYT, and when this asset finally depreciates as a result of said payments, its only objective value will be in salvage, driven by the melt value of its precious metals, which are virtually indestructable elements.  

I hope you get muggedon the PATH and they jack your laptop.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:54 | 3423646 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

I'll shut this lying idiot up right now, or prove what a coward he is.......




What HASN'T Obama lied about, "Dr".....




Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:58 | 3423673 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

To paraphrase Wolfgang Pauli, not only is this not right, it's not even wrong. Gold has been, for all of recorded history, a store of value.  There are no reasons extant to forecast a change in this aspect of humanity. It is silly to debate this fact. Its value moves up and down for a host of short term reasons. A rational person observing the state of affairs in the world today might conclude that the future safety of their wealth is at risk, and act accordingly.

The Federal Reserve and the federal government are the cause for most of what ails this nation's economy. To look to them for solutions is reminiscent of Stockholm Syndrome.

How it is, in this day and age of instant digital access to all of recorded history, that you can spend so much time trying to break monetary and fiscal policy down to molecules without first comprehending that the centralized authority necessary to enact such policy is at the root of our problems is beyond me.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:08 | 3423729 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

"For all of history" is another way of saying "when there was no rule of law".

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:21 | 3423776 akak
akak's picture

You have gone from spouting lies to babbling sheer nonsense.

Money has not existed, and can not exist, in a society devoid of the rule of law.  That is why it effectively disappeared in Europe during the end of the Roman Empire and for a number of centuries thereafter.  Nevertheless, any civilized society in recorded history has had some form of rule of law, and therefore money.  To claim that the rule of law is some recent invention, much less imply that it coincided with the advent of pernicious fiat currency, is to turn all of history on its head.  But that is something at which you Keynesian crackpots excel.

PS: The "rule of law" has been subverted, and dying, in the USA and Europe for many decades now, just coincidentally following the rise of rampant statism over the past century or so.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:28 | 3423823 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

This statement is a demonstrable falsehood, but it does shed light on the way in which you manage the cognitive dissonance of espousing central planning policies while surrounded by evidence of their perfect record of failure.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:45 | 3424072 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

No rule of law? Like Under the O'Bowel Movement?



What HASN'T the OBowel Movement lied about, "Doctor"

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 23:32 | 3425010 Fiat Envy
Fiat Envy's picture

"when there was no rule of law"  if you will pardon the expression, that was pure gold

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:09 | 3423739 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Fear and optimism have nothing to do with holding gold. It is an excepted store of value, not an investment. Any vehicle that can store value is a Godsend while your heroes are busy pissing in our soup.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:33 | 3424031 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

So are you saying that without Congressional action there is no recovery?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 21:03 | 3424541 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Hey Krug. Love your work. Just can't agree with some of it. I'm no doomer, just a numbers guy. So please help me understand my simplistic view of what exists today. In scaled back dollars, mr and mrs USA make 24,000 per year. They are currently spending around 33,000 per year. They owe 165,000, but only pay interest (at around 2 or three percent) on around 90,000 of that right now. Within the next six years, they will be paying interest on all of it which will increase annual expenditures further. Including the 8 or 9 thou of annual deficits they add each year. And the unfunded liabilities of approx 450,000 (which no economist seems to understand are real, and will gradually hit the balance sheet every year for the next 40 and then bear interest themselves) increase by the day. To date, the most mr and mrs USA ever made during good times was 28,000 per year. Please explain how in the hell you can judge mr and mrs USA as anything other than broke, with bankruptcy the only option (or inflating away the debt by devaluation of the currency), and continue to recommend additional expenditures of money they don't have as the solution. Thanks.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 02:19 | 3425244 agNau
agNau's picture

What is it about simple math that eludes so many people?

OK, I'll bite.
Exactly what does congress need to do?
This will make my day I'm sure.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 21:16 | 3429134 GoldForCash
GoldForCash's picture

Dr Paul Krugman this is the one person in the world that believes Obama. Not even the NAACP has any interest in him. Oh well he owns no gold or silver. I'll give him a dime someday for shining my shoes...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:41 | 3423588 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Most don't enjoy you though.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:45 | 3423597 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I know there are circles who do not care for my theories, but as I am enjoying around 20,000 new readers on my blog every month, I think you are wrong.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:49 | 3423618 akak
akak's picture

Which only goes to prove that there are indeed 0.463 suckers born every minute.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 22:01 | 3424696 fuu
fuu's picture

<golf clap>

You know you were the only one doing the math on that right?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 22:06 | 3424713 akak
akak's picture

I strive for accuracy.



Tue, 04/09/2013 - 21:10 | 3429206 GoldForCash
GoldForCash's picture

I think he just has a lot of relatives. Probally the same ones that use to buy all his chocolate bars in high school.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:48 | 3423620 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Most come to you to determine what not to do and then move on.  Others come for the comedy.  Yet others are wondering what sort of drugs you are on to believe your drivel.  Again, it must be pretty awesome to make money squeezing out a daily shit.  Must be nice.

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