Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Tyler Durden's picture

Thanks to yet another JPYgasm (which saw the currency lose 1.8% against the USD on the day), stocks were levitated off early weakness amid the lowest non-holiday volume day and lowest average trade size. The message we are supposed to garner is "we don't need no stinkin' jobs" as all the cash indices were lifted to fill the non-farm payroll gap. Treasury yields rose 2-3bps but the 30Y remains massively off pre-NFP levels (as opposed to stocks) suggestive of the JPY rotation bid. Homebuilders were the high-beta ramp of choice, gaining almost 2% (why not?) on absolutely no news whatsoever (and are 2.6% higher than pre-NFP! Copper and Oil rose around 0.9% on the day even with the USD gaining 0.25% broadly. Silver and Gold leaked 0.4% lower from Friday's close. VIX dropped around 0.5 vols holding at 13.5% (below its pre-NFP level). So stocks back to pre-NFP levels (as is the USD) on dismal volume, VIX better than that, but safety is bid with Swiss rates, US Treasuries, and Gold in demand. JPY remains the story - now 7% weaker against the USD since the BoJ news - orderly?

The last 14 days... S&P 500 has gained 8 points, 30Y Treasury yields are 27bps lower since 3/18 close.


With today's closing ramp just a funny thing to behold... (and notice the terrible below average volume).


and the "Olde 330ET Ramp" perfectly in cue...standard 8 points out of absolutely no where!!!!


which took most back to pre-NFP levels and also the S&P made it back to pre-Cyprus levels...


and we are sure someone somewhere can explain the 6% raly in Homebuilders from the post-NFP print...


Volume and average trade size today were terrible...

and across assets - gold is doing best (along with bonds) as stocks recover NFP losses and the USD retraces also...

Today saw risk-assets become increasingly correlated - with JPY crosses dominant as we levitated...

But it remains a remarkable move in JPY (against the USD and EUR) which perhaps is spilling into the long-end of the US bond market (as seen above)

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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mdtrader's picture

If they know it's going down tomorrow why were they buying it today? lol

DeadFred's picture

I think there may be a pattern here...

Sudden Debt's picture

Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Sounds like a classical saturday night...

Dr. Venkman's picture

I traveled to Havana on a general OFAC license. No big deal. Plus there are groups of lawyers that will defend you for free if you go unlicensed and get caught. In the history of the travel embargo there have been zero prosecutions. They send you a letter asserting a fine and a right to contest. Contested fines go to a ALJ's office . . .that actually does not have an judge assigned to it. . .thus limbo. At least that's how it went 2 years ago.

Great trip. I figured I'd get a thorough pat down at customs since I declared my visit. The fatass customs and immigration folks were busy sucking down big gulps and let me through without a hitch. The system is a sham. Not to mention my flight from Mexico to Havana was probably 90% American.

redpill's picture

Did you get any cigars back through?  You can make dumb schmucks pay a shit ton for those things.

Dr. Venkman's picture

Since I thought I would get searched if I declared my "legitimate" trip, no. Knowing what I know now. . .I would have gone without the license and brought back as much as I could carry.

francis_sawyer's picture

If you flipped a coin 9,999 times & it landed on HEADS every single time... What are the 'odds' that it will be TAILS on the 10,000th flip?


Note: we are talking about METAL coins here ~ not paper or 'bit' ones...

Note2: The 'odds', in this case, [as the answer], won't be too dissimilar to if you asked whether ot not the next Fed Chairman or Treasury Secretary would be a jew or not... Although ~ in reality, it would skew the odds, IN THE 'COIN' scanario towards the result being 'HEADS' again... & rather measurably, I might add...

SMG's picture

Jewish people are not running the show here,  get it through your thick head Francis!

Say What Again's picture

Today's move was strange in many ways, the histogram of volume by price for ES is interesting.

Talk about a long tail.

The vast majority of the volume is centered around 1546.  Then there is a long tail of price going up to 1562 on very thin volume. 

ZH discussed this here.

We need that guy (Adam Clark-Joseph) who wrote the articel on HFTs that had access to the IDs of the participants.  I want to know who's juicing this market.

francis_sawyer's picture

Of course not... The United States [non] FEDERAL [non] RESERVE simply 'invented itself' like a freakish & miraculous offset of organic chemistry... It just happened...


What was I POSSIBLY thinking?

SMG's picture

Yes of course that was conspircay fact, but it's not Jewish.

otto skorzeny's picture

they sure took it over pretty quick

El Viejo's picture

Equities - The sport of kings.

francis_sawyer's picture

Of course not... It has NOTHING to do with Warburgs, Rothschilds, Kuhn, Loeb & Company, or the 'Lazards' & other families...


I must be out of my mind...

SMG's picture

It's Illuminati. Luciferian. Nothing to do with Judiaism. That's the religion those people you mentioned practice.  Demon worship.


francis_sawyer's picture

Well ~ just for fun... This was conjectured upon in an earlier thread... [vs. none other than the distinguished Dr. Krugman]...


In the end [if you peer thru the comments]... MATHEMATICALLY... It seems that the odds of there NOT being overwheming JEWISH [not 'Luciferian'. 'Illuminati', or otherwise] representation in the US [non] FEDERAL [non] RESERVE is about equivalent to drawing 3 CONSECUTIVE ROYAL FLUSHES [on the deal], in 3 STRAIGHT 5 card poker hands...

It happens all the time...

It is also by complete miracle of nature that the structural edifices of central banks around the world, being 'masonic' in nature, resemble the temple of 'King Solomon' & 'King Herod'... Neither of which had anything to do with jews...



Pareto's picture

1 IN 2.  They are independent events.  If the question were asked, "what is the probability of tossing heads 10,000 times consecutively?", then the chance is pretty remote (calculator doesn't go that high - (1/2)10,000 .

Sudden Debt's picture

It's America 2013!!!


also when you're white of course... CAVITY SEARCHES BITCHEZ!!!








Muddy1's picture

Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Yeah, was it good for you? :-)

Aguadulce's picture

If Kevin wants 30 free ES points, he needs to remember, its up, up, down, down, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT........its not all just ups and downs.

sunaJ's picture

Henry is such a wanker - he never gets it.

HedgeAccordingly's picture

Fairly orderly today once bonds became offered.. i say orderly gingerly.. but this was first day bonds have rolls in two weeks. all about the pair trade

SMG's picture

If they keep doing that, the bonus stage unlocks on all Bloomberg terminals.

adr's picture

Is that where you get to see the video of Bloomberg sucking off Bernanke while giving a hand job to Blankfein watching Dimon throw trillion dollar coins in the air?

101 years and counting's picture

looked to me like there are now 3:20 algos to front run the 3:30 algos....afterall, if you know for sure you can sell higher in 10 minutes just because its 3:30, wouldnt you take advantage?

Banksters's picture

We've watched this for ages.   As long as the sweet feed keeps coming the market levitates higher.  


Jobs, who gives fuck

Food stamps who gives fuck

Manufacturing  who gives a fuck

Energy prices who gives afuck

Money printing who gives a fuck


Until something really happens... Hold your fire, because this can't go on forever, nothing ever does.   


fonzannoon's picture

this alcoa CEO is screaming at how great things are with every aspect of his business other than the core parts of his business.

McMolotov's picture

"Cheap fabric and dim lighting. That's how you move merchandise."

—Morty Seinfeld

Sudden Debt's picture

Only the devil makes a profit...

Cursive's picture

Fundamentals?  Ha!  The market makers move this shit just to create arbitrage opportunities.  A casino has better odds for the little guy.


ETA:  Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot! AA is trading at 47 times earnings.

NotApplicable's picture

Wait a minute... since when does AA have earnings?

sethstorm's picture

Strategic, contract-breaking bankruptcy?

El Viejo's picture

N/A :

Subsidized, like everything else these days.

mdtrader's picture

The Japanese may have pushed too hard and could be about to lose control of their markets.

camaro68ss's picture

na, bernake will bring in a last min stick save to make it all better.

darteaus's picture

Just like the my old DIs (Drill Instructors) on Paradise Island (Parris Island)!


Clowns on Acid's picture

Bernakle, thru the MSM is telling the US public that he will save them by boosting the Equity market. The man in the street knows that isn't so...but what is he going to do...?

"Don't fight the Fed" was an expression that originated in the short term interest rate markets. Today however, without missing a left wing fascist beat, without anyone in the MSM questioning the real objectives of the unprecedented  Fed foray into the Equity markets and what that means to the very pillars of capitalism that the US was built upon.

It has moved from irrational to illegal, to immoral. 


thismarketisrigged's picture

i love when i hear on cnbc about earning season, like it really fucking matters.


we had the worst fucking jobs report on friday that i can remember, on top of horrid data throughout the week, and this market acted as if nothing happened, Now these jackasses want to tell me fundementals matter?


alcoa just fucking reported 11 cents per share ( 13 was the estimate 2 weeks ago before they lowered it to 8, figure why they beat it, lol) and revenue missed badly, yet stock is up. 


this shit makes no fucking sense, and if i hear any fucker on cnbc or any other station talk about earnings like they matter, i will punch someone.

McMolotov's picture

Your name says it all. Bernanke is effectively the God of the Market at this point. It seems he can make it do whatever he wants, and woe to the unbelievers.

Banksters's picture

Pretty much.  But that is how it works.  


When an event happens that can't be manipulated we'll know it.  This fucker has a long way to fall when reality hits.

SheepDog-One's picture

I don't think markets will 'fall', and reality will enter with a mushroom cloud over some or many major U.S. cities 1 morning....that will be it game over if you had any money anywhere *poof* it's gone.

Banksters's picture

I wouldn't laugh at your scenario.   Game theory rests on rational players.

Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Algos off?  ES trades in miniscule range.  Algos on? ES goes str8 up with nary a pullback.

You can actually see when the HFT machines are set to "BUY F*CKING EVERYTHING"