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Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Thanks to yet another JPYgasm (which saw the currency lose 1.8% against the USD on the day), stocks were levitated off early weakness amid the lowest non-holiday volume day and lowest average trade size. The message we are supposed to garner is "we don't need no stinkin' jobs" as all the cash indices were lifted to fill the non-farm payroll gap. Treasury yields rose 2-3bps but the 30Y remains massively off pre-NFP levels (as opposed to stocks) suggestive of the JPY rotation bid. Homebuilders were the high-beta ramp of choice, gaining almost 2% (why not?) on absolutely no news whatsoever (and are 2.6% higher than pre-NFP! Copper and Oil rose around 0.9% on the day even with the USD gaining 0.25% broadly. Silver and Gold leaked 0.4% lower from Friday's close. VIX dropped around 0.5 vols holding at 13.5% (below its pre-NFP level). So stocks back to pre-NFP levels (as is the USD) on dismal volume, VIX better than that, but safety is bid with Swiss rates, US Treasuries, and Gold in demand. JPY remains the story - now 7% weaker against the USD since the BoJ news - orderly?

The last 14 days... S&P 500 has gained 8 points, 30Y Treasury yields are 27bps lower since 3/18 close.

 

With today's closing ramp just a funny thing to behold... (and notice the terrible below average volume).

 

and the "Olde 330ET Ramp" perfectly in cue...standard 8 points out of absolutely no where!!!!

 

which took most back to pre-NFP levels and also the S&P made it back to pre-Cyprus levels...

 

and we are sure someone somewhere can explain the 6% raly in Homebuilders from the post-NFP print...

 

Volume and average trade size today were terrible...

and across assets - gold is doing best (along with bonds) as stocks recover NFP losses and the USD retraces also...

Today saw risk-assets become increasingly correlated - with JPY crosses dominant as we levitated...

But it remains a remarkable move in JPY (against the USD and EUR) which perhaps is spilling into the long-end of the US bond market (as seen above)

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:09 | 3423415 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

If they know it's going down tomorrow why were they buying it today? lol

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:14 | 3423424 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

It kind of has a goose-step cadence to it...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:20 | 3423471 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I think there may be a pattern here...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:26 | 3423518 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Sounds like a classical saturday night...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:38 | 3423573 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

I traveled to Havana on a general OFAC license. No big deal. Plus there are groups of lawyers that will defend you for free if you go unlicensed and get caught. In the history of the travel embargo there have been zero prosecutions. They send you a letter asserting a fine and a right to contest. Contested fines go to a ALJ's office . . .that actually does not have an judge assigned to it. . .thus limbo. At least that's how it went 2 years ago.

Great trip. I figured I'd get a thorough pat down at customs since I declared my visit. The fatass customs and immigration folks were busy sucking down big gulps and let me through without a hitch. The system is a sham. Not to mention my flight from Mexico to Havana was probably 90% American.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:40 | 3423578 redpill
redpill's picture

Did you get any cigars back through?  You can make dumb schmucks pay a shit ton for those things.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:42 | 3423591 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

Since I thought I would get searched if I declared my "legitimate" trip, no. Knowing what I know now. . .I would have gone without the license and brought back as much as I could carry.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:04 | 3423675 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If you flipped a coin 9,999 times & it landed on HEADS every single time... What are the 'odds' that it will be TAILS on the 10,000th flip?

~~~

Note: we are talking about METAL coins here ~ not paper or 'bit' ones...

Note2: The 'odds', in this case, [as the answer], won't be too dissimilar to if you asked whether ot not the next Fed Chairman or Treasury Secretary would be a jew or not... Although ~ in reality, it would skew the odds, IN THE 'COIN' scanario towards the result being 'HEADS' again... & rather measurably, I might add...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:14 | 3423767 SMG
SMG's picture

Jewish people are not running the show here,  get it through your thick head Francis!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:34 | 3423846 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Today's move was strange in many ways, the histogram of volume by price for ES is interesting.

Talk about a long tail.

The vast majority of the volume is centered around 1546.  Then there is a long tail of price going up to 1562 on very thin volume. 

ZH discussed this here.

We need that guy (Adam Clark-Joseph) who wrote the articel on HFTs that had access to the IDs of the participants.  I want to know who's juicing this market.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:38 | 3423849 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Of course not... The United States [non] FEDERAL [non] RESERVE simply 'invented itself' like a freakish & miraculous offset of organic chemistry... It just happened...

~~~

What was I POSSIBLY thinking?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:37 | 3423853 SMG
SMG's picture

Yes of course that was conspircay fact, but it's not Jewish.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:41 | 3423863 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they sure took it over pretty quick

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:42 | 3424253 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Equities - The sport of kings.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:41 | 3423864 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Is it Cuban?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:41 | 3423866 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Of course not... It has NOTHING to do with Warburgs, Rothschilds, Kuhn, Loeb & Company, or the 'Lazards' & other families...

~~~

I must be out of my mind...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:44 | 3423880 SMG
SMG's picture

It's Illuminati. Luciferian. Nothing to do with Judiaism. That's the religion those people you mentioned practice.  Demon worship.

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:23 | 3423981 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Well ~ just for fun... This was conjectured upon in an earlier thread... [vs. none other than the distinguished Dr. Krugman]...

~~~

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-08/confidence-dollar-wanes-over-do...

In the end [if you peer thru the comments]... MATHEMATICALLY... It seems that the odds of there NOT being overwheming JEWISH [not 'Luciferian'. 'Illuminati', or otherwise] representation in the US [non] FEDERAL [non] RESERVE is about equivalent to drawing 3 CONSECUTIVE ROYAL FLUSHES [on the deal], in 3 STRAIGHT 5 card poker hands...

It happens all the time...

It is also by complete miracle of nature that the structural edifices of central banks around the world, being 'masonic' in nature, resemble the temple of 'King Solomon' & 'King Herod'... Neither of which had anything to do with jews...

 

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:52 | 3423921 Pareto
Pareto's picture

1 IN 2.  They are independent events.  If the question were asked, "what is the probability of tossing heads 10,000 times consecutively?", then the chance is pretty remote (calculator doesn't go that high - (1/2)10,000 .

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:44 | 3423587 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's America 2013!!!

YOU GET SPECIAL TREATMENT WHEN YOU'RE "COLOURED"

also when you're white of course... CAVITY SEARCHES BITCHEZ!!!

DO YOU KNOW WHERE MY HAND WILL BE IN 20 SECONDS?!?!?

BBBAAAAAAMMMMM!!!!

SHIT!! MY WATCH!!! GOTTA GO BACK IN!!!

BBAAAAAAAAAAMMMMM!!!

ARE YOU SURE THIS IS YOUR FIRST TIME?!??!

BBBAAAAAMMMMM!!!!

NEXT!!!!!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:25 | 3424399 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

Yeah, was it good for you? :-)

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:28 | 3423525 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

If Kevin wants 30 free ES points, he needs to remember, its up, up, down, down, LEFT, RIGHT, LEFT, RIGHT........its not all just ups and downs.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:38 | 3423564 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Henry is such a wanker - he never gets it.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:40 | 3423576 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:34 | 3423557 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Fairly orderly today once bonds became offered.. i say orderly gingerly.. but this was first day bonds have rolls in two weeks. all about the pair trade http://hedge.ly/Zwnb8j

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:15 | 3423445 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

-

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:18 | 3423465 SMG
SMG's picture

If they keep doing that, the bonus stage unlocks on all Bloomberg terminals.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:26 | 3423514 adr
adr's picture

Is that where you get to see the video of Bloomberg sucking off Bernanke while giving a hand job to Blankfein watching Dimon throw trillion dollar coins in the air?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:19 | 3423470 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

looked to me like there are now 3:20 algos to front run the 3:30 algos....afterall, if you know for sure you can sell higher in 10 minutes just because its 3:30, wouldnt you take advantage?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:20 | 3423475 Banksters
Banksters's picture

We've watched this for ages.   As long as the sweet feed keeps coming the market levitates higher.  

 

Jobs, who gives fuck

Food stamps who gives fuck

Manufacturing  who gives a fuck

Energy prices who gives afuck

Money printing who gives a fuck

 

Until something really happens... Hold your fire, because this can't go on forever, nothing ever does.   

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:29 | 3424420 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

"Hold your fire"  That's what she keeps saying

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:08 | 3423416 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

this alcoa CEO is screaming at how great things are with every aspect of his business other than the core parts of his business.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:12 | 3423432 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Cheap fabric and dim lighting. That's how you move merchandise."

—Morty Seinfeld

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:42 | 3423590 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Only the devil makes a profit...

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:19 | 3423422 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Fundamentals?  Ha!  The market makers move this shit just to create arbitrage opportunities.  A casino has better odds for the little guy.

 

ETA:  Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot! AA is trading at 47 times earnings.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:05 | 3423712 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wait a minute... since when does AA have earnings?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:22 | 3423990 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Strategic, contract-breaking bankruptcy?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:49 | 3424267 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

N/A :

Subsidized, like everything else these days.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:12 | 3423429 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

The Japanese may have pushed too hard and could be about to lose control of their markets.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:13 | 3423435 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

na, bernake will bring in a last min stick save to make it all better.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:57 | 3423430 darteaus
darteaus's picture

Just like the my old DIs (Drill Instructors) on Paradise Island (Parris Island)!

"PUSHUPS BEGIN!!!  DOWN-UP; DOWN-UP; DOWN; NOBODY SAID UP!  GET BACK DOWN!"

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:13 | 3423436 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Bernakle, thru the MSM is telling the US public that he will save them by boosting the Equity market. The man in the street knows that isn't so...but what is he going to do...?

"Don't fight the Fed" was an expression that originated in the short term interest rate markets. Today however, without missing a left wing fascist beat, without anyone in the MSM questioning the real objectives of the unprecedented  Fed foray into the Equity markets and what that means to the very pillars of capitalism that the US was built upon.

It has moved from irrational to illegal, to immoral. 

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:13 | 3423437 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i love when i hear on cnbc about earning season, like it really fucking matters.

 

we had the worst fucking jobs report on friday that i can remember, on top of horrid data throughout the week, and this market acted as if nothing happened, Now these jackasses want to tell me fundementals matter?

 

alcoa just fucking reported 11 cents per share ( 13 was the estimate 2 weeks ago before they lowered it to 8, figure why they beat it, lol) and revenue missed badly, yet stock is up. 

 

this shit makes no fucking sense, and if i hear any fucker on cnbc or any other station talk about earnings like they matter, i will punch someone.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:18 | 3423456 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Your name says it all. Bernanke is effectively the God of the Market at this point. It seems he can make it do whatever he wants, and woe to the unbelievers.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:22 | 3423489 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Pretty much.  But that is how it works.  

 

When an event happens that can't be manipulated we'll know it.  This fucker has a long way to fall when reality hits.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:37 | 3423565 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I don't think markets will 'fall', and reality will enter with a mushroom cloud over some or many major U.S. cities 1 morning....that will be it game over if you had any money anywhere *poof* it's gone.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:47 | 3423614 Banksters
Banksters's picture

I wouldn't laugh at your scenario.   Game theory rests on rational players.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:14 | 3423440 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Algos off?  ES trades in miniscule range.  Algos on? ES goes str8 up with nary a pullback.

You can actually see when the HFT machines are set to "BUY F*CKING EVERYTHING"

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:26 | 3423506 The Tao
The Tao's picture

No doubt!  But I wonder, don't these buyers want to gain something from all their buying?  At some point you'd think that someone has to take profits, right?  If not, why bother?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:58 | 3423671 Mark123
Mark123's picture

They have unlimited credit at no cost...they trade at the margin using corporate accounts and trade their private funds based on inside knowledge of which days/times the market will be run up.

 

They cannot lose.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:59 | 3423674 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Not so fast.

If the algos are being run by the Fed or at the Fed's request then they never have to be unwound.  The Fed could buy 50bil in futures and just hold them til expiration and settle them for cash - they could buy 500bil if they wanted.  Do you actually think the exchanges would impose contract limits on the Fed?

They are spending 85Bil a month on QE, what is a few bil here or there spent on buying SP500 futures?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:17 | 3423458 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Well done, Kevin!

"IT'S MILLAH TIME!"

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:18 | 3423462 e m m
e m m's picture

Getting worrisome about the Dow bubble.

The competition is getting really fierce with the new kids like short yen trade, Nikkei, Bitcoin.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:18 | 3423468 sbenard
sbenard's picture

"we don't need no stinkin' jobs"

Who needs jobs? Who needs an economy? We have PRINTED prosperirty now!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:25 | 3423499 Jason T
Jason T's picture

Mohandas Karamachand Gandhi, one of the most influential figures in modern social and political activism, considered these traits to be the most spiritually perilous to humanity.

 

  • Wealth without Work
  • Pleasure without Conscience
  • Science without Humanity
  • Knowledge without Character
  • Politics without Principle
  • Commerce without Morality
  • Worship without Sacrifice

...Wealth without work bitchez

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:24 | 3423491 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I'm curious what earnings will be like after the EMP attack.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:47 | 3423611 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Up 40%.  On a nominal basis.  As to which denomination that would equate to, I have no fucking idea.  

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:24 | 3423496 adr
adr's picture

Alcoa reported gross shipments of Aluminum were down. But business is up.

You know, I always say business is better when I sell less of what I made. Because that is the New Normal.

There's more bullshit in that release than the ranch down the street.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:26 | 3423504 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Jobs are for losers.

BTFD is the way to make a living.

This 15:30 ramp should be free money for all the clever people reading this site who claim to observe some daily computer driven conspiracy. It

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:30 | 3423530 The Tao
The Tao's picture

"This 15:30 ramp should be free money for all the clever people reading this site who claim to observe some daily computer driven conspiracy..."

until it doesn't do it.  Trust me, I've been thinking about this for a while now, but there is always that hesitation -- what if today is THE DAY they don't ramp it, and it actually goes DOWN!  FACE RIPPED OFF trying to out smart the rigged system.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:29 | 3423531 The Tao
The Tao's picture

.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:35 | 3423562 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Use a stop and your face won't get ripped off.

Market makes us all want to scream sometimes too but  some of the cyncism here could be replaced by engaging the moves and trying to make some money.

ZH was a lot more fun when people talked trades and made money.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:40 | 3423582 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Stops'...LOL good one! See, comedy and fun on ZH is not gone.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:45 | 3423606 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I bought a pack of sigarettes today...

you might wanne buy some lung cancer healing pill company stocks or something...
Or a beer company... BECAUSE I'M FUCKING THURSTY!!!!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:48 | 3423612 The Tao
The Tao's picture

I don't need stops, never have, not how my system works.  I am shorting the ES with everything I have, and will continue to do so with no fear at all.  The technicals don't get overlooked forever, just look at the MASSIVE divergence in the ES Daily MACD.  It will come down, and every time they ramp it, I have more short from the high. 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:06 | 3423708 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Good luck there.  If you can withstand another 150 ES points from here without blowing up your account you might have a chance.  I do think up 20% on the year would likely put a cap on it even in the face of the Fed.  The market has a unique way of extracting max pain before doing what the majority expect it should do.

I have tried that type of trading before.  What ends up happening is your average price = the exact low pivot or the exact high pivots.  Meaning by the time you average your position,  each turn in the market retraces to about your breakeven point.  So for months of frustration you are even or perhaps make a little.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:16 | 3423770 The Tao
The Tao's picture

You don't have my system, so you haven't tried trading the way that I trade.  My system takes profits while I am waiting for the move without really "cost avergaing" -- eventually I'll be in the money whether the "move" happens or not.  At some point, and I think that point is immenent, the technicals will exert their force -- look at the MACD in the ES Daily for one of the greatest divergences in history.  You're calling for another 9+% before any significant pull back?  On top of nearly 12% already?  Ok, if you say so.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:53 | 3423638 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

We're all different obviously, but one theme I see:

1.  People that are smart are converting their fiat to real assets.

2.  People that are smart don't put their money into accounts that can be "Corzined" or "Cyprused".

You don't hear a lot of trader talk because you'd have to be a braindead hooker to still be trading.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:40 | 3423583 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Quite right, given iphones and the twittersphere that our world environment has become, attention spans are now about 15 minutes.  Couple this with our transition to a nannystate, jobs # are volatile, fake, revised and generally ignored within hours.  With selling out of the way every day by 11AM, allows a comeback everyday even if we don't go green, there are almost no days that dump into the close and certainly none that continue the next day.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:48 | 3423623 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

I have CNBS on for some reason -  first time in a very very long time - who's the lips,hair and cleavage person? like some sort of terraformed Maria Bartiroma

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:25 | 3423809 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That must be the Aussie, Mandy.  Still wondering about that carpet/drapes correlation myself.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:52 | 3423639 Mark123
Mark123's picture

So once again, all stocks changed direction (up) at about 1:40pm eastern time.  No news that I am aware of.

 

Gotta love free markets.  This one is a real beauty!  The central bank and their primary dealers, flush with unlimited credit at 0%, play this market as they see fit.  All the while millions of people beat their brains out trying to come up with winning strategies to beat the system, and the PR/media spend their precious time coming up with stories to manage perception and protect the powerful.

 

Where will it all end? 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 16:54 | 3423642 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everybody knows whats going on here. They are scared they will miss the "inflation train". They don't want to see their wealth evaporate and given the government's obvious intent to support the markets at all cost, they see no way to lose. I'm not getting in. I'm probably stupid but I don't care, I'm not giving them my money to gamble with. Given the world's intent on printing this could go on for a long time but when it blows it will be the nuke of all time. Nothing or no place is safe. Besides, hedging with guns and ammo is likely just as good a bet as any other in the long run.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:00 | 3423680 jubber
jubber's picture

Unfortunately this ridiculous ramp pulled ALL the European futures market well up after a crap day taking thousands of DAX. CAC FTSEMIB stops out with it..like evry other poxy day

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:04 | 3423691 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

Even worse, if the market were to sell off everyday around 3:30 everyone would be complaining that the short sellers and algos were bringing the market down and the SEC would be all over it.  No one ever complains when the market is going higher.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:12 | 3423750 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Bingo!

They never claim any harm when obvious manipulation happens on the upside.  You never hear CEO's complain of stop running algos jamming the stocks "too high".  Only on the downside does any complaining ever happen.  The market is a two way road.  At some point the same bullshit they are doing now will flip around and punish the longs.  We are just not to the tipping point yet. 

I have no problem with stocks running as much as they like higher.  I only have a problem when there is such an obvious disconnect between reality vs trading that the only explanation is a concerted, collusive effort to continually push higher.  All you have to do to see it is look at the market before Jan 1 (almost any stock will do) then look at it post Jan 1 until now.  Many, many names are a straight beeline higher.  Fundimentals do not change that fast - you do not normally go from 5% gain per year to 20% gain in 3 months straight up across many sectors, many names with little to no news to justify that type of price action.  Its like Jan 1st reset the fundamentals of each and every company to massively bullish, any trading activity prior to Jan 1 was forgotten.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:05 | 3423710 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Alcoa is getting CRUSHED after hours....down a whopping 5 cents (dropping their PE ratio to a VERY attractive 46.5).  If you don't buy a mature manufacturing concern with a PE this attractive with reckless abandon tomorrow, then you are just insane.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:05 | 3423711 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

I hear you Tao. I got some "cheap" ES put protection but I learnt my lesson in the original BTFD QE2 no down day move. Technicals don't work in these central bank markets. Had one shorted DAX, IBEX, FTSE...almost anything except US Large Cap and one would be making money the last couple weeks.  ES is a policy tool.  It is no longer a risk proxy. Better things out there to trade.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:22 | 3423798 The Tao
The Tao's picture

"Technicals don't work in these central bank markets..."

Until they do Ferrari.  I agree that the technicals take LONGER to excert their force these days, but they still play out.  8+% above the 200 day MA in the ES Daily.  What's the longest you've ever seen that continue to hold that number?  Again, I agree the central planning makes technicals exert less -- until they exert more.  Equal and opposite effect.  They harder they push, the bigger the fall when it actually comes.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:27 | 3423821 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Would love if it did before my April puts roll off in two weeks. Be careful out there bro and good luck!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 17:31 | 3423840 The Tao
The Tao's picture

Thanks!  You too!   I got a great system that is a thing of beauty to watch in action.  Just move baby, move, move, and move some more!

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:14 | 3423964 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

did anyone catch that jackass, i believe his name was richard bernstein, he was saying on cnbc right before the closing bell that the reason we r going up is that ''we have an improving economy''

 

how the fuck do certain ppl get on tv? who the fuck is he trying to kid that we have a ''improving economy''?

 

this economy is so fucking bad, ive never been so scared before.

 

whenever we are up for the day, its the economy is improving, ppl r always buying the dips ( what fucking ppl r buying these dips, volume is so fucking low, there is no way ppl r buying the dip)  but if we r down, which is a rarity, it is just an ''excuse to sell'' according to the fuckers on tv. Howvever, i really do not want to here about excuses to sell as a reason the market is down anymore, because if being up 10 plus percent on the year and coupling that with terrible data, including a jobs report so bad last friday to cap it off, one that i had not seen that bad in ages, and that did not make for an excuse to sell off, there is no excuse to sell off anymore i guess.

 

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:33 | 3424026 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

You answered your own question, regarding why he is on TV. That is what TV calls for. It is to market product, not to rationally inform.

I still am afearing that it is somewhat more similar to 1998, with a parabolic blow off multi year top brewing.

Arrogance is coming back into fashion, and lies need no longer try to deceive. They are said outright.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:20 | 3423983 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Imagine if the FED gave a bunch of Terminator robots Trillions to go gamble in Vegas.

All the robots had to do was watch the busy tables and use their computational speed to predict winners and losers and see where the humans were putting their chips.

They'd move from craps, to blackjack, to roulette, to poker; wherever there were a lot of chips on the table they could take away from the humans.

The house has given them a nearly unlimited budget and they know the rules and the odds and can count the cards and always be one or two steps ahead of the humans.

These are our stock markets today folks; Skynet is staring you down with red glowing eyes.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:25 | 3424179 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

It sounds to me that you are saying that the games of chance that our very economy is based upon are rigged! Best way to keep a crooked game going is to let everyone think they are in on it. I can't help but think that every gambler at the table has to believe that everyone else at the table is a chump, put there for him to fleece. Not saying it isn't competitive because we know it is. Its just that everyone thinks they have the edge. When monkeys can out perform professionals at trading, that tells me that A; the brokers delude themselves into believing they are superior, or B; they know they are not, but the only way investors will let go of their money is if they think they have an edge. Either way the investors are screwed. The truely telling thing is that so few brokers are willing to get paid based on their performance. Its a hell of a deal when we will let someone smooth talk us into giving them our money. We have been talked down to for so many years that we aren't supposed to feel competent at doing anything for ourselves. We must solicite professional opinions on just about everything and get permits for everything else. How is that possible, with all of our technical advancements and higher education, that we are less capable of caring for ourselves now, that ever in history?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 23:36 | 3425018 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yes, less capable, more gullible - even after all the legerdemain of the past 5 years.

Investors are screwed, Pensions, 401K's, I.R.A.'s, Savers, falling for the propaganda of the MSM.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 18:27 | 3423999 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

And thus it came to pass.The new and improved Liberty Street algorithm simulated a two way market. The market went up, but it also went down!

And thus the critics were silenced. Manipulation you say? Why on earth would we manipulate the market down?

These are free markets!

The only fly in the ointment was that the algo was derived from a mixture of fundamental factors using PCA along with historical simulations using the market that invented QE and general sideways trending from here unto eternity ... Japan.

Given those parameters and the inability to manipulate consistenly over very long periods of time, especially when adding in down markets, they had to settle for one day up, one day down, one day ... etc. The symmetrical monotony of it all was highly praised by those in charge.

Isn't the "free" market exhilarating?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 19:39 | 3424234 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Suzy Algo:  “Wow, that was cool the way you did a mock ‘triple top’ look, with little wicks on the tops of the candles from 2:15 on, making them think we’d break the daily ramp pattern.”

Jhonny Algo:  “Thanks.  My favorite touch was the big 3:20 red candle – didn’t touch the low of the prior few bars, but they still fell for it and shorted, making the ride up rather ballistic, no?”

Suzy:  “Seemed rather obvious.”

Jhonny:  “Well, I know they try to cheat off of 1- and 2-min charts, so it was like taking an iPad from a baby.”

Suzy:  “Can’t imagine why 22-yr-olds want to work to death writing EA Sports games when then can make big bucks writing algos like us.”

Jhonny:  “Thank god no one’s shining a light on what we’re doing, or we’d need to go back to fixing state congressional elections.”

Suzy:  “Or fudging BCS calculations to satisfy bowl sponsors.  No thanks.  See you tomorrow after lunch.”

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 20:28 | 3424411 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

 

Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down, Up, Down... Up

 

In, Out, In, Out, In, Out, In, Out, In, Out, In, Out, In... Out

Are you getting yours?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 01:24 | 3425202 titty sprinkles
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