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Overnight Levitation Returns As The Elephant In The Room Is Ignored

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With every modestly positive datapoint being desperately clung to, now that even Goldman's Hatzius has once more thrown in the economic towel after proclaiming an economic renaissance in late 2012 just like he did in late 2010 only to issue a mea culpa a few months later (and just as we predicted - post coming up shortly), the key prerogative is to ignore the elephant in the room. That, of course, is that the JPY 1 quadrillion bond market had to be halted for the second day in a row as the Japanese capital markets are fast becoming a very big and sad joke. The resulting flight to safety from Japanese investors, who sense that their own bond market is on the verge of breaking down completely, has managed to send French and Belgian bonds to record lows, the Spanish 2 Year to sub 2%, the German 6 month bill negative in the primary market, the US 10/30 year constantly bid and so on. The immediate result is that the bond-equity disconnect continues to diverge until one day we may get negative 10 Year rates coupled with an all time high stock market. Gotta love the fake New Normal market, in which the Japanese penny stock market was up another 2.8% to well over 13,000 even as the Shanghai Composite plumbs ever redder territory for 2013 on fears the birdflu contagion will hurt the already struggling economy even more.

As for the good news, there wasn't much. German Industrial Production beat estimates handily even as the general economy and stock market continues to deteriorate, printing at 0.5%, on expectations of +0.3%. This however came at the price of a downward revision in the prior month, which was revised from 0.0% to -0.6%. Alternatively, the EURUSD which dropped to an overnight low of 1.2970 before beginning its overnight levitation coinciding with Europe open, has been doing everything in its power to ignore the fact that Portugal, as BNP summarized it, is rapidly moving toward a second bailout in the aftermath of this Friday's much discussed constitutional court decision, and subsequent announcement that public workers may be paid in Treasury bills instead of cash. The Portugal-German spread has blown out as a result, but so far the damage has been contained and the EURUSD is ramping to overnight highs, oblivious in its certainty that the Portuguese "lack of cash" haircut will not be a template, nor a blueprint, and is a very, very special situation. 

Macro newsflow out of the US will be light this week, however all eyes will be on yet another quarter of weak corporate data, with Alcoa as usual kicking off earnings season after the close. Markets will be sure to ignore weak cash flow data as well, just as they have been great at largely ignoring the rapid deterioration in the macro data in the month as well.

Bloomberg's bulletin notes the other various key overnight highlights:

  • Treasuries steady as JPY falls to 99.01 vs USD, weakest since May 2009; third day of declines after BoJ said last week it would boost monthly bond purchases to $76b.
  • Friday’s weak U.S. non-farm payrolls will put a stop to QE tapering discussion, at least until it becomes clearer on whether the slowdown is just a soft patch,   Goldman’s Jan Hatzius writes in client note
  • Portugal will carry out more spending cuts this year and ruled out further tax increases after the Constitutional Court blocked a plan to suspend a monthly  salary payment to state workers and pensioners
  • Distrust of the Fed and concern that U.S. dollars may become worthless are fueling a push in more than a dozen states to recognize gold and silver coins as legal tender
  • Slovenia’s creditworthiness is deteriorating as investors speculate a banking crisis will force it to follow the  island nation and become the sixth euro country to need aid
  • German industrial production rose 0.5% in Feb., more than 0.3% est.; Jan. revised to -0.6% from previous 0.0%
  • North Korea may detonate a nuclear device and carry out a missile test together as early as this week, South Korea’s government said
  • David Cameron will take his case for a more flexible EU to Spain, France and Germany this week, seeking the alliances he needs to renegotiate Britain’s status  within the 27-member bloc
  • Nikkei gains 2.8%; European markets, U.S. index futures gain. Energy gains, precious metals lower

Deutsche summarizes the other main events

Alcoa’s Q1 earnings this evening marks the start of the US reporting season and provides the latest pulse-check on the momentum of growth after what was a generally disappointing week for US data last week. We’ll get a bit more colour on the US growth picture at the back end of the week with jobless claims (Thurs), retail sales and consumer sentiment survey (Friday). Unless we get a run of stronger data soon the market is going to increasingly wonder whether the latest soft patch in US data is only weather or sequester-related or actually a repeat of the weaker mid-year seasonals we’ve seen over the last three years.

Portugal topped the weekend headlines after the country’s constitutional court rejected a number of austerity measures in the 2013 budget late on Friday. The measures in question included a cut in state pensions and public sector wages, which apparently breach a constitutional requirement that the burden of fiscal policy be fairly distributed and not discriminate between state and private sector workers (Financial Times). Over the weekend, the Portuguese government said that the impact of the decision will be offset by finding additional spending cuts, which the European Commission welcomed overnight as the ‘the best way to restore sustainable economic growth and to improve employment opportunities in Portugal”. The European Commission’s statement added that continued implementation of the country’s programme is a precondition for a decision on the lengthening of the maturities of the financial assistance. Portuguese bonds have underperformed in recent weeks and currently trade at their highest yields of the year at around 6.25%. Indeed, the spread between Portuguese and Spanish 10yr bonds yields reached 156bp on Friday, or more than double the lows in January when the spread was just 70bp.

Turning to Asia and we’ve had some pretty interesting moves to start the week. The Abe-trade continues to pay dividends with the Nikkei up another 2.4% overnight bringing total gains since the BoJ’s announcement last Thursday to 6.2% (+8.4% from the intra-day low prior to the announcement). Meanwhile the yen is 1% lower overnight to trade at around 98.60 as we type, the weakest level against the greenback since 1H 2009. After selling off 9bp on Friday, 10yr JGB yields are back down 2bp to 0.51% overnight. In terms of the news flow, Japan’s current account rebounded to a surplus for February (JPY637bn not
seasonally adjusted vs JPY457bn expected), its first surplus in four months helped by the recent fall in the yen. Domestic newswires are reporting that the BoJ will begin with 1trn worth of JGB purchases next week targeting maturities of between 5 to 10 years (Nikkei).

In China, losses are being seen in Chinese equities (Shanghai Composite -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.1%), led by weakness in transportation, hotel and other tourism related stocks after news that the number of bird flu cases has increased to 21 over the weekend. So far, the reported cases appear to be limited to the city of Shanghai and adjacent cities. Chinese airline stocks were down 5-10% on Friday. Unsurprisingly, healthcare stocks are the only industry sector to trade higher on the Shanghai Composite this morning. Elsewhere on the back of ongoing tension in the Korean peninsula, the Korean won is 0.6% weaker against the dollar, mirroring a similar loss on the KOSPI. Over the weekend, the North Korean authorities said that they cannot guarantee the diplomatic missions in Pyongyang from April 10th onwards. With the late Kim Il-Sung’s birthday (North Korea’s founder and grandfather of the current leader) coming up on April 15th we can probably expect more rhetoric from the North Koreans over the coming week.

Briefly returning to Friday’s session and the aftermath of the US payrolls report. We’re sure that you’ve seen the numbers by now, but to put it into context the +88k headline print for March was the worst outturn since June 2012, and the fourth worst since the beginning of 2011. Against expectations of 190k, the miss of 102k was the largest since December 2009, where in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis, the US economy shed 220k jobs against expectations of zero change. In other details of the report, labour force participation fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979. Perhaps the only silver lining was the significant upward revisions (+61k) to the prior two months of data.

In terms of the market reaction, S&P500 futures sold off 11 points on the back of the data, but the S&P500 (-0.4%) itself managed to close only marginally lower after clawing back most of the opening losses throughout the day. Friday marked the 12th consecutive alternating up/down day for the S&P500.

European equities were already trading in the red at that point, with the payrolls number helping the DAX, CAC and IBEX close near the day’s lows of - 2.0%, -1.7% and -0.6% respectively.

In that context, credit markets outperformed on Friday with the European iTraxx, Crossover and the IG20 all managing to finish the day around 1-3bp tighter. Global government bond yields continued to trade lower on Friday, led by the 10yr UST yield which sank to an intra-day low of 1.67% before finishing at 1.71%, the lowest level since mid-December. Indeed, across the globe the more aggressive than expected easing by the BoJ and disappointing US data are adding headwinds to the view of stronger growth and higher core rates.

Indeed, the renewed bid for duration saw 30yr UST yields hit a year-to-date low of 2.87% while France’s 10-yr yield fell to 1.72%, the lowest ever. 10yr bund yields reached the lowest since July 2012. In other weekend developments, the UK managed to avoid a downgrade from S&P of its AAA rating for the time being but the rating agency kept its outlook on negative after warning of the risks to growth and hence government debt. S&P said its views the government as remaining committed to implementing its fiscal program and that it has the ability and willingness to rapidly respond to economic challenges. The news came after equity markets had shut in London, although it did help sterling close 0.2% higher against the euro on Friday.

Looking more closely at this week’s docket, Wednesday’s March FOMC minutes will be closely scrutinised in light of the debate over the timing of QE tapering – DB’s Joe LaVorgna warns that the minutes may be slightly dated following the disappointing week of data just passed. With that in mind, the week’s list of Fed speakers may provide a better real-time gauge of the FOMC’s current thinking. The list of speakers includes Bernanke who will be delivering the keynote address at an Atlanta Fed conference today, and who will also speak again on Friday. At least nine other FOMC members will be speaking on various days this week.

Elsewhere, we have a number of other important growth/macro data points this week. China provides it latest update on inflation tomorrow followed by trade numbers on Wednesday. Key data releases include in Europe include industrial production numbers from the Euroarea and the UK in the first half of the week and German/UK/French trade reports on Tuesday. In Europe, the two day Eurogroup/ECOFIN meeting starts on Friday - on the agenda is a review of the Portuguese and Irish programs. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo round out the first week of earnings season on Friday.

 


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Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:09 | Link to Comment Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Bitcoin traders left out of pocket after Australian-based exchange fails to pay up.

Crypto Xchange goes bust....or just gets lost somewhere in this new MF algo-rhythmic cyber- con ...

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3732468.htm

WR;)

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:26 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Can traders afford to take the weekend off anymore?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:55 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Heh heh.....just set some stop losses in case something bad happens.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:07 | Link to Comment Croesus
Croesus's picture

 

What could possibly go wrong with Bitcoin?

  

 

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:24 | Link to Comment Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Noone could have predicted this.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment larry david
larry david's picture

With bitcoins you might get ripped off, scammed, or lose due to hacking. With dollars/euros/yen etc you definitely will lose, bigtime. 

Bitcoins are also great because they are front running the government in their grand scheme of a totally digital, cashless society. At least bitcoins are harder to track than your local BoA checking account. 

 

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:41 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Just read the article. Check out this quote...

"DAVID GOEL: This is not play money for a lot of us. This is our life savings and more than that."

The guy claims he put his LIFE SAVINGS into Bitcoin. Not sure whether he's inflating his story to make it more dramatic or if he's stupid enough to have put his life savings into an untrusted digital currency.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:11 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"subsequent announcement that [Portugese] public workers may be paid in Treasury bills instead of cash"

Does that represent the equivalent of Portugal issuing it's own currecy again?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:13 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

nope, just another step in the perpetual quest to find the greater fool to offload risks to

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:20 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

If the treasury bills are issued by the Portuguese government, I'd say that Portugal is finessing the issuance it's own "currency". 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:11 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The bird flu data is BS. They didn't give a damn about the 6,000 pigs that didn't want to live under communist leadership and commited suicide in the Yangtze. They certainly aren't going to care about some chickens catching cold. And, the six people that died out of 1.2 billion...flu is supposed to kill 39,-000 to 60,000 people each year. That's why they call it the flu. I don't buy it one moment. Chinese products still suck after 40 years of trying to copy US technology. That's the reason for their market going down.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:28 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Current bird flu hot spot is.......wait for it..........wait for it...................................................................Boom, it's LA.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:48 | Link to Comment Esso
Esso's picture

Which LA? Louisiana, Los Angeles, Los Alamos, what?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:53 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah.......those.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:04 | Link to Comment Esso
Esso's picture

Oh crap, I better sell my gold before it goes to zero.

Oops, I can't, I accidently flushed it all down the toilet. (Hey, I couldn't afford a boat after buying all that gold)

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:11 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

Wait till mtgox go belly up.  Guy should have know, theyre not your zeros and ones if you dont hold em in your own hot little hands.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:31 | Link to Comment aleph0
aleph0's picture

Der Spiegel : Ergebnis des Athener Geheimberichts: Deutschland schuldet Griechenland Reparationen

 

Greek Govt.   reckons that Germany  could possibly owe them ca. EUR 162 Bio. for War Damages.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bericht-deutschland-schuldet-g...

 

 

 Quite funny comments from the German “Spiegel readers” .. saying ….
# “Greece is asking to be kicked out of the EU”
# “what a cheek after we’ve given them all that money”

Says quite a lot about German Spiegel “Readers” .
 I think Greece would love to get “kicked out” … and maybe then the Germans will find out where their “Bailout” money went … to German & French Big Banks.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:33 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

18 points up from Friday's low on the SPX on nothing but fresh air. Hitting the 20 DMA from underneath now. FTSE down this morning despite the fact that when London closed on Friday the SPX was at 1546. So London no longer buying the US BS markets? Oh and sterling has been very weak too in the last few months, so even under a weak currency the FTSE is rolling over much harder than the US markets, which doesn't make much sense! How much longer can they hide reality in the US? If the powers that be continue to make a mockery of the US markets, eventually people will lose all faith in them.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:19 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

The system will continue to be propped up until............
it can't.
What's for breakfast?
Cake & Cock. An' we're fresh outta Cake.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:21 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

for some reason i knew the posts would begin with bitcoin today..
zh ..how reliable and predictable...

You fuck each other with this giant rotation from gold to bitcoin,,,

bitcoin? REALLY?

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 07:24 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

everyone just decided to leave the room. it's a room full of black swans circling and shittin on the elephants below

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 14:48 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Folks, I have a silly quesiton. Please bear with me.

How do you pay someone in T-Bills as Portugal is trial-ballooning? Do you deposit them into workers' accounts and then the workers somehow cash them out?

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 09:06 | Link to Comment DutchR
DutchR's picture

No, they have a roll of them next to the toilet, much easier....

 

/s

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 09:09 | Link to Comment sumo
sumo's picture

"Do you deposit them into workers' accounts and then the workers somehow cash them out?"

Yes, that's the Machiavellian brilliance of it. When the workers go to cash out, so they can buy food and pay energy bills, the T-bill market price falls due to increased supply. Instant muppet haircut - no, make that decapitation. It is a brilliant way to ramp up poverty. Euros uber alles! Sing it with me now, it's compulsory.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

In 1990 the Nikkei was up at ca 38000 before going bust

and going imto free-fall for the next 20 years.

Since the Fukushima Nuclear Meltdown after the Tsunami -

TEPCO have done everything possible, to destroy what was still left of Japan's economy.

devaluing the Yen into nothingness will please Bernanke and his stooges,

but it won't make Gozilla come to life again...

no matter how many trillion of Yen are being pumped into the lifeless corpse,

that is the nuked Japanese Gozilla.

Japan is a Joke following the US example...

stimulus bubble, credit bubble, Bond Bubble....

huge Bond bubble and it will bust again, because Japan is broke...

forever buying it's own Debt and in a downward death spiral,

a race to the lowest common denominator according to Bernankes

"bugger thy Neighbour's" rule..

Fuck you Bernanke,

fuck Napoleon Bonaparte and that Dick Cheney

and that fucking War-Criminal Donald Rumsfeld...

there are the known unknowns and the unknown knowns

and the things we know that we don't know and what we know we do know:

Japan and Europe, the USA and the UK is fucked...

the whole World is fucked...

It's all a total MF Global fuck up...

but it's still better than "they all" expected...

what a fucked up world we live in !

wr;)

 

 

 

 

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

"

fuck Napoleon Bonaparte and that Dick Cheney

and that fucking War-Criminal Donald Rumsfeld..."

Don't forget to include the Kenyan who, for the last five years has outdone himself in keeping alive the record death toll for US troops in Afghanistan, increased spying on US citizens, used Executive Order to assassinate Americans overseas, and kept an endless drone war in place.

Mon, 04/08/2013 - 09:06 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

all i know is that ( not that anyone ever believed these assholes or anything) when they say on cnbc or anywhere else that we have a down day because '' ppl needed an excuse to sell'', its  all fucking bullshit, because if fridays horrid jobs report on top of all the other horrid data last week was not an excuse to sell, than i really do not know what is then.

 

i hope the machines crash today, thatd be great.

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