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Why RINs Could Be 2013's 4-Letter Word For Gas Prices
RIN is the mechanism for enforcing the Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) - Suppliers can either blend their own to meet standards OR buy RINs from other blenders... due to weather issues last year 2012 RINs were in short supply - and with Feb as the last date to pay for them we saw prices surge. These RIN prices were passed on to customers at the pump. The problem is there is now not enough for 2013 (and even less for 2014) which means that instead of $0.03, RINs for 2013 could stay high in the $0.75 to $1.00 range (depending on ethanol production) and higher for 2014. This could mean the implementation of several possible alternatives - dependent on exogenous factors such as the supply of feedstock (corn, soybeans, sugar and palm oil) and spare biofuel production and blending capacity - supporting corn prices but the higher prices, we suspect, will lead Congress to revise (lower) its RFS mandates. At current levels, given the weighting of renewable fuels, RINs are adding around 7c to each gallon at the pump; should the RINs rise to $3, then that will mean a 10% rise in the price at the pump implying a 0.9% drag of GDP growth - something our Congress won't accept.
Via Goldman Sachs,
The key to the recent rally in RIN prices, the instrument used to enforce the US Renewable Fuel Standard, has been the looming inability to blend as much conventional (corn) ethanol as mandated in 2013 and 2014. In particular, while the 2013 requirements will still be met by drawing down carryover of 2012 RINs, there will not be enough 2013 carryover RINs to achieve this in 2014. As a result, our recent analysis showed that it would take several large adjustments to overcome the 2014 shortage in ethanol (D6) RINs.
Unfortunately, the 2014 shortage in D6 RINs likely just got bigger. The EPA RIN reporting system was updated to now include data for February, a key month by the end of which obligated parties need to comply with their 2012 obligations.
Detailed paper here - everything you need to know about RINs and were afraid to ask...
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So the EPA will give the economy a bad case of the RINs?
A Federal Government RIN job?
But maybe with a .9% drag on the economy we can score another cool quarter trillion or so free Bernanke bucks for Obamba to blow on stuff like exploding slot cars or California solar scams.
nah..nah the "enforcement vehicle" is a slot-machine in a tight casino. (derivatives bitchez) BOOM!
"I promise you that the Affordable Care Act will lower your gasoline prices."
- Paul (prior consultant to Enron) Krugman
Won't affect my MPG, right?
It seems no matter what, various kinds of ridiculous eco-taxes are going to be applied to gasoline. This is why the price of gasoline does not go down even though usage has dropped like a rock. America could get completely energy independent with cheap oil and it's not going to matter. Leviathan must consume all.
So, RINs have an exponential curve but they're not a bubble?
Where are the claims RINs will crash to zero?
What a stupid fucking article. He left out one tiny detail that ethenol is blended at only a bout a 10% rate! So multiply all this hype by .10. That's what is being added to cgas prices.
... which is planned to soon go to a 15% rate (E15).
midwest is getting rain and cool temps-will be biggest corn yield ever-book it. corn prices are already dropping.if grain prices come down it will keep food inflation in check and buy QE4EVA some more time.
Bernanke is a lucky guy. Is he Irish ?
Leprechaun
Fucking hoot at the Congressional St. Paddy's Day Party
Shalom O'Bernanke:"Where's me pot of gold?"
FED toady: "You leased it to the bankers who sold it to you-know-who."
Shalom O'Bernanke:"Begosh and begorrah!"
Yo RINny
RIN Tin Tin...
Only idiots burn their food for fuel.
nice one
Concur, but probably better than drinking it as GMO corn syrup.
Both brought to you by none other than Monsanto.
Check out what they tossed $7 million at last year: http://biosynthetic.com/
Far better to drink it as fine corn liquor.
Only idiots inject toluene and other toxic waste into the ground where their water comes from.
Yep. We pay through the nose to raise gasoline and food prices and increase pollution. That's government at work.
A multitude of price supports and subsidies to concoct a less energy efficient fuel
Fucking Bingo
And you wonder why we are where we are....
Plenty of them in the Government.
I doubt anyone here eats switchgrass.
Can we dispense with the idiotic idea of burning food for fuel already? It was stupid when it was set up and almost comically morose now. Let's make food cost more so that we can also make gasoline cost more. Genius. This is a pure dead-weight loss for the entire economy (except, as usual, for a select few who make out like bandits because they're plugged into the government machinery and the RIN market).
Yes, I'm aware that the corn used for making Ethanol is not human edible corn like you buy at the local farmer's market. It's silage corn but that makes no damned difference- it's still an input to vast parts of the overall food industry.
This whole program was set up as a way of being more energy-independent. So let's not get on the "global warming" rant here- this has NOTHING to do with it. This is purely a substitution of one energy source for another. Have advances in NG and shale exploration not spanked this stupid idea's ass red enough yet?
Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot it's gotta be RENEWABLE energy. My bad. Nevermind. Great program. Keep it up. Maybe we should eat our own children while we're at it. They're renewable too.
next up-we'll power our vehicles w/ NG and in the meantime drive the cost of heating homes with it through the fucking roof. also-sugar cane is much higher in energy than corn for ethanol and we could get huge amounts from Cuba but that pissy embargo we have prevents it.
Time to reconsider the need for "our vehicles".
We could get huge amounts from Mississippi if fedgov weren't paying them so much to eat, drink, and reproduce.
Last I heard we won't let Brazil sell us cane-sugar ethanol, either. Guess they are on some double secret shit list.
You are always a day late and a dollar short:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-22/brazil-to-become-net-importer-of-u-s-ethanol-czarnikow-says.html
Clearly the 2012 drought did change things but once again you seem to be full of shit...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-30/u-s-exports-no-ethanol-to-brazil-in-may-as-imports-rise.html
You are truly a font of disinformation...
Wow. Conditions changed? The point is that imports of Brazilian ethanol, when conditions have warranted it, have been unwelcome in the USA. No where in your cited articles is that point even raised.
Keep trifling, fucktard. You fool no one.
Keep making shit up, you are on a roll, why stop now?
Being a useful idiot is no way to go through life. I suppose you get paid though.
Yawn....
I suppose one day I will tire of pwn'n you on an almost daily basis...
Big picture. You came here hoping to turn ZH into a subset of the oildrum. How's that working out?
Ownership? When anybody pays any attention to your disingenuous fluff it garners more down arrows than up. If you weren't constantly stalking me, I'd ignore you, too.
You've got nothing, flakey.
..
Want to hear something even more stupid. They're flaring millions of cubic feet of nattie right into the atmostphere in the South Dakota Bakken fields. Poof.
Clearly visible on satellites.
That's the free market at work...
I love the Ethanol program; it would be hard to find a program that combines so much damage into one synergistic inferno!
1) Drives up the cost of food inputs, and meat. So JQ Hapless spends more on food.
2) Lowers the avg. mileage per gallon by lowering the energy in Ethanol contaminated gas. So JQ Hapless must spend more to go a given distance.
3) Adds complication to refining and distribution, further increasing the cost per gallon, driving up JQ Hapless' expenses.
4) Requires massive subsidies which the nation, bankrupt, can hardly afford.
5) Uses massive amounts of groundwater that is not/cannot be replenished. Aquifer, goodbye.
6) Damages vehicles, destroys chainsaws and other small engines.
It may be the most Evil, incompetent and criminally Demonic program in the History of the Republic - and that's saying something. I marvel at it, and I gape with wonder.
Well, not to keep harping on the same string but...EROEI bitches.
Ethanol is AT BEST a net energy neutral technology. Hell it may even be slightly net negative once you factor in all the energy inputs and outputs. The bottom line is there is no logic in subsidizing this apostasy. There is no net gain in energy for the US. There is no net benefit for the US (except for a few corporate megafarms and the ag lobby).
AND CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS
Right. Well, that's your ag lobby in action. It's all about the money. That's the only reason this bullshit continues.
"It may be the most Evil, incompetent and criminally Demonic program in the History of the Republic - and that's saying something. I marvel at it, and I gape with wonder."
I would give that award to the banning of DDT.
Not really a program more of a policy. Simple math, really; Do I as a good progressive prefer pretty birds or 500 million dead people with black/brown/yellow skin? And you see the choice that was made.
DDT cannot be hard to manufacture so I'm disappointed no nation in Africa doesn't simply make it, use it, sell it, and crucify any foreigner who crosses their frontier and opens their pie hole about it.
And I do literally mean crucify. Nail them to a cross and let 'em die slow.
I would say something about peak oil, but really what's the point anymore. 1/3 get it. 1/3 don't. And 1/3 think the earth has a caramel center made out of oil that will last forever (the abiotic nuts).
Nah, the CIA, the Greys and remnants from Nazi Germany are still struggling to control the center of the Earth. If there is any candy there, it'd be good German chocolate.
The Nazis...aren't they the ones with the flying saucer base in Antarctica?
Exactly. That's where the entrance to the center of the Earth is; Amazing how they continue the fight after so many years.
"should the RINs rise to $3, then that will mean a 10% rise in the price at the pump implying a 0.9% drag of GDP growth - something our Congress won't accept."
Ya right, our admin will allow the price to sky rocket, then demand congress do their home work. Then just slide another huge tax in its place to keep the fuel price elevated, while increasing everyone's "FAIR fucking SHARE".
I see the banksters at GS is doing more of Gods work.
Forward Bitcheez.
Looks like the price of gold and silver will go down even more. Quick sell it all to the printer bRINnake.
Cyprus civil servants, pensions could go unpaid....
http://www.france24.com/en/20130408-cyprus-civil-servants-pensions-could...
Civil servants and pensions in cash-strapped Cyprus could go unpaid this month because of a shortfall of at least 75 million euros ($97 million) in government coffers, an official warned on Monday.
There's no plan bingfa, it's simply they are trying to cause a crash somewhere not to be blamed for it. They were about to do it with MFG and changed their mind. Now cyprus, then europeans changed their mind.
There is no plan, it's simply reaction in order to say: Not my fault.
This is like 'who blinks first' game.
+1...Something's ready to happen.....soon
It's all building to a crescendo....
'Oil for Food' exchange, coming soon to your local 'Wall Mart'.
Government is forced to put downward pressure on economic growth till the baby boomer driven spending subsides. RIN, Obamacare, Dodd-Franks, and any other regulation in the name of the greater good is there to keep the growth in check to keep government financing low enough to afford the unaffordable. Any real growth would give a boost to real equity returns and therefore put pressure on the bond market - if rates go up even by 50 bp the US would have to pay something like 500 Billion more in interest annually. Does not make sense to inflate now as all that money goes towards entitlements and any inflation there is pissing against the wind due to COLA. Once the forced spending ends sometime in the 20-30's a mega inflation will come and wipe out all the debt. That is what happened after the WW2 in the 50s and 60s.
Great, now the gun owners who need basic psychiatric help will be afraid to use it and therefore causing more problems in the future. Lol
Anybody still living in NYS definitely needs to have their head examined.
How 'bout that shite hole AKA "Kalifawnya?"
"HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — With time running out on the chance to pass gun control legislation, President Barack Obama on Monday warned Congress not to use delaying tactics against tighter regulations and told families of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting victims that he's "determined as ever" to honor their children with tougher laws."
http://townhall.com/news/politics-elections/2013/04/08/obama-promoting-g...
Forward Bitcheez!!
Well let's give um no choice, and then blame them when they do the wrong thing.
So that covers benzos like Xanax. What about SSRIs (Zoloft, Prozac, etc.)? And NRIs or anti-psychotics like Seroquel. Are they all covered under the same act? Half the country is fucking medicated. that may be an exaggeration but not much of one.
This is one door in which they will be able to confiscate peoples guns.
Its a back door method mind you, but, of course that's the best door the libs love since they're all basically queers anyway.
Those folks having their weapons and FID cards confiscated have been discovered to have been prescribed multiple different types of psychotropic drugs, such as those for Depression or Anxiety. These are known as SSRI ( Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors) class drugs and have the potential to cause serious and adverse side effects
More will probably come out tomorrow......
Next up, anyone with a family member on anti-depressants living in the same home can have their permits revoked.
Then, any family member on SSRI's, even if they're in a skilled nursing facility can cause permits to be revoked.
Then, did your kid get popped for smoking dope at school?
Did they bring any type of drug, legal or illegal, into a drug free school zone?
Let me see if I can address this fairly without pissing too many people off. Obviously there is the potential for abuse with this new legislation, namely, to throw too wide a net over gun owners and prospective gun owners and deny them their 2nd amendment rights. That's clear. That said, I don't want some raging psychopath with a criminal record able to legally buy weapons. But that said, it now appears that the very drugs designed to treat depression, bipolar, schizophrenia, etc., actually end up short circuiting the brain, i.e., shorting out the emotional centers that allow us to empathize with others. So, the very drugs that are supposed to cure, or at least treat, the problem, e.g., Zoloft, Prozac, various other SSRIs*, actually seem to be the CAUSE of psychotic breaks with reality. Example: most of the mass murders in schools, movie theaters, etc., were actually carried out by people who were on these medications. That's a matter of public record, not speculation. I've also heard that once you get on these drugs, it's almost impossible to get off of them, IOW, hooked for life. So this may be some kind of "back door" as you say to eliminate a large cross section of society from owning guns.
Yeah it's complicated. I can see illegal guns coming into play now more than ever.
They'll never stop that....
If I were among this targeted group and had say a small farm somewhere out on the plains, and my choice was either: 1) obey the law and leave my family unprotected. 2) break the law and procure an AK off the black market. Sorry but I gotta go with option #2 and take my chances. Better to be alive and in violation of the law than...
Read Truman Capote's In Cold Blood, or Vincent Bugliosi's Helter Skelter if you have any doubt or naivete about the depths of human depravity. A better case for gun ownership was never made.
Thank goodness the drones are legal that Obanghole used to kill two American citizens in Yemen.
/sarc off
The lawsuits between the NRA and NY, CA are going to be epic......
and the states will probably lose.
In the USA, maybe. In the USSA, not so sure.
"our congress"........HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Is this a call for RIN tin tin?
I dunno. Never underestimate the stupidity of our Congress.
So... this train was merely providing liquidity?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-02/why-did-train-carrying-biofuel-...
Were any of Obamies friends (Buffet) privy to this?
Does a bear shit in the woods? Yip.........
Does a pope shit in the woods?
I don't know. I do know, I just made Krugman a hot lunch and left him a napkin.
Unfucking-believeable... and just when I thought nothing could surprise me anymore. Thanks. I missed this post.
Isn't it though? Almost enough to piss the pope off..........
Is this the bitcoin chart?
It is shit like this that makes me hate wallstreet/federal government so much. And what is not to love about this.
The government can throw some love to the global warming environmental terrorist crowd with these "initiatives". Goldman and other tbtf banks can make huge money as private producers are forced to play a completely arbitrary made up game of hedge the rin risk. First they will start with futures and options. Then they will evolve to swaps and options on the swaps. Then they will move to deliverable rin swap futures and options on those futures. Finally, an interbank market of rin denominated cds can begin trading to hedge the risk of blenders going bankrupt and not being able to fulfill rin related swap obligations. And don't worry all of the net contracts of cds will be held by the financial fortresses such as AIG, so god bless bilatteral netting!
How bout this for a change. Get rid of the gasoline and use all ethanol. Fuck the oil companies. Kick them out of the country along with the banksters. I helped set up seminars for David Bloom of "Ethanol is a Gas." a very long time ago. Check it out. The only reason countries use oil is because of Corportocracies that are killing people and the planet. You don't need to use food crops or even farmland that is used for food.
The people in Brazil can't believe how gulible people are to think that cars need oil to run on.
Kick the Rockefellers out of the country. BP ya that's a great company. Oil terrorists.
Great idea, put together a spread sheet and show us how it works... /sarc
Let's just make the "energy market" as complex as possible. No sense in letting the little guy figure out he's getting screwed. It's for his own good, really.