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The 2012 Analog Continues
While the 2012 Deja-Vu chart analog continues to play out in far too similarly scary manner than many had believed possible, a glance at the catalysts over the two months that form the 'tops' should also send a shiver down the spine of the momentum believers. In 2012, the first dip was the Greek default and restructuring (a Europe-based crisis risk flare); that dip was bought (of course) as "the worst is behind us," only to see a miss in US non-farm payrolls confirm the "it's different this time," hopers were wrong once again. In 2013, the Italian election created a Europe crisis risk-flare, which was bought (of course) as "the ECB has our back", and then a month later, the non-farm payroll prints at a dismal level. For now, we remain hopefully bid on a sea of central bank liquidity (just as we were in 2012 thanks to ECB's LTROs) but what happens when 'markets' realize the hole is bigger than the central banks can fill?
The key thing is - it is different this time - margin is at record highs, net longs are at record highs, and even retail has unwound some money market and thrown it at stocks; so this time, maybe the central banks won;t have the ammo to stall the selloff like they did last year and in 2011...
Charts: Bloomberg
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"It's like deja vu all over again." - Yogi Berra
But, but, it's different this time, right?
Only when the fat lady Yogi sings.
<Or do I mean Yoda?>
Q1 earnings are supposed to be bad, Japan is firehosing Yen out their anus, we're on the brink of war with some tin pot dictator, BRICS are dropping greenbacks like a bad poker hand, and the stock market is.... up? Nothing matters anymore.
And it won't until it does.
My fantasy is that this will be different, and the bankstas will not get bailed out.
I know -- that's why they call it a fantasy.
At this point one thing, and only one thing, matters. Eventually even that won't matter any more.
<Ben.....we need moar liquidity. Turn it up to super secret double probation QE 666 and then run like hell.>
"Eventually even that won't matter any more."
And it would appear that "THAT" doesn't even matter anymore.
The metaphors no longer matter anymore.
Jobs, Korea, Syria, Fed, Banks, Corruption, taxes, drones on the homeland..............
Reality suspended
logic defied
irrational has become the new rational
gravity no longer exists
I sit and watch the market go almost straight up and sit with mouth open paralyzed by my own cognitive dissonance.
Even the anti-depressants don't work anymore.
I am daily reminded why it is at one time I turned on and dropped out
It's different everytime, and that's not different today ...
"making predictions is difficult, especially when it is about the future."
yogi berra
When Yogi spoke the earth (and linguists) trembled.
<And Daniel Webster rolled over in his grave.>
Tell Tchaikovsky the news... Oh wait!
~~~
Eh fuckit ~ A nickle ain't worth a dime anymore...
Nice!
A classic Yogism.
what happens when 'markets' realize the hole is bigger than the central banks can fill?
There is no hole the Troika, Federal Reserve, or BOJ cannot fill. Fiat bukkake for all......bitchez!
Holy R2, batman! That's some serious correlation.
They'll break that analog in the bull's favour, like everything else, and like the up-down-up-down, which is about to be broken today decidedly to the upside.
The bulls in the china shop never seem to break anything. Modern-day miracle.
so, after exactly 10% down, we can expect the yearly "markets in turmoil" special on cnbc that marks the exact bottom?
That's at least Tresja vu!
edit: or Troisja vu, maybe ...
How about (EU) Troika Vu?
I'd say: You nailed it.
So the NY Fed doesn't have a Bloomberg machine and only One calendar
What about the total shit numbers out of China last night? China has the hot rod of inflation up it's ass, so it's tough for them to loosen. For some reason TITB (the idiots that be) thing they can though. The markets are so complacent right now. No news is good news, and shit news is completely ignored.
18:30 CNY Chinese CPI (MoM) -0.9% -0.6% 1.1% 18:30 CNY Chinese CPI (YoY) 2.1% 2.4% 3.2% 18:30 CNY Chinese PPI (YoY) -1.9% -1.8% -1.6%It's been 2 years of this. Unfuckingreal.
I wish they'd finish roshamboing on who is gonna pull the rug out and get on with it.
Still plenty of looting of the (global) middle class left to be done. They won't pull the rug until then.
Patience grasshopper. They have many miles to loot before we sleep with the fiat fishes.
well, with any luck the new cement overcoat they are going to fit me with will reunite me with my silver bullion.
freaky
Dow Jones hourly from yesterday shot up about 50 points in the final hour.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/dow-jones-hourly-ramps-46-points-final-...
And we are about 15 points from another "all time high" in the Dow Jones.
In the tank NFP reports - they just don't matter.
There is no way out of the current worldwide finacial ponzi - than the total control of all markets by BIS, IMF, ECB, FED, BoJ, BoC and the G7. Without total control the finacial system is vulnarable to crashes and will crash.
Why is this so difficult to understand by the average middle class american? Control it all - or control nothing. There is no middle ground.
again ZHers drive by looking in the rear view mirror. the markets wont break down simply because too many ZH retail expects it to so.
The markets won't break because they have a $85bb per month bid under them.
The $ isn't buying the charade that is todays market.
The bond market isn't buying the charade that is todays market.
The usd/jpy trade isn't buying the charade that is todays markets.
Volume isn't buying the charade that is todays market.
Credit isn't buying the charade that is todays market.
the mkts wil break. 85b isnt enough. fast money knows the first to the chip cage wins, everyone else gets trampled. cb's make same mistake, they are not bigger than global money flows. asia 98 happened b/c hot money is bigger than southeast asia. 08 happened b/c when the mirage of collateral disappeared everyone wanted out and nothing was bid.
japan is the prelude, 2% swings everyday, then a 5%, then 10 and it doesnt bounce back. volatility preceds price. good bull markets dont have wild intraday, just constant accumulation. there is no accumulation now, volume down, light up to get prices so they can sell more.
the great rotation out of bonds is the biggest piece of bald faced propaganda in 50 years. the b/d's and banks have to sell out to retail to try to fix their holes. but as they sell retail isnt big enough even with 85b a month to let the prop desks out. at the end of the depression a whole generation foreswore stocks and banks. this era will be over when a generation is left in the ashes.
Looking in the rear mirror may be prudent if you're backing up the truck
I see what you're tryin' to do there, with your fivefold inverse psychologies ...
It will not repeat as many think. The markets are completely disconnected from any normal risk metering - any and all news is good. I cannot fathom an event that would actually be taken negative for more than a few hours. GDP does not do it. Earnings do not do it. Europe does not do it. Cypress does not do it. Large gains in a short period of time does not do it. Oil does not do it. Any historical measure of what likely causes corrrections is flawed right now. Buyers are all in at every junction and are successfully able to ramp the market to new high after new high with no resistance. This can be seen by the size of the moves on very low volume. There is absolutely no one looking to stand in the way.
Don't get me wrong - this will end very badly. But I would not be suprised to see another 10% gain or more first before anything even remotely starts happening on the downside. As soon as I see 2 sell days in a row I will believe perhaps the tide has turned. Since mid Dec we have not had 2 sell days in a row other than for a miniscule amount. Any selling only lasts a few hours.
Buying on super low volume, selling on higher volume yet the market continues to march higher and higher. Stocks sell 50c then move up 1 on the next push.
Agreed. Central Banks have effectively broken the market's pricing mechanism. Fundamentals are irrelevant for now. This is the late 90s on steroids. David Stockman is right long term, but so is David Tepper for the forseeable future.
I hate it when David is right
Quote from the article:
but what happens when 'markets' realize the hole is bigger than the central banks can fill?
My take: That derivative hole is so big, there's no freaking way QE can continue without causing an ENERGY SHOCK like in the 70s.
I was expecting QE tapering in March. I'm expecting a shock announcement any time now or during the May fed meeting.
The markets won't break because there is $5 Billion per day flooding into the market. Fed's $2.5 B and BOJ's $2.5B. Where the fuck are the Japanese banks going to put that cash? 56 Basis points on 10 year paper? Hell no. It's coming to U.S. dividend paying equities regardless of fundamentals.
So if you want to take it in the fundaments, position your equities based on fundamentals, not the fucking flood of cash coming to the U.S.
Its different this time. They're going for broke. But the dip.
Market won't break until the another 10 million or so drop off the edge of the employment world (and the unemployment rate drops to 5%) or until the middle class completely disappears under the weight of the current ~15% inflation rate in food prices along with their falling wages, whichever comes last..
"We are not monetizing the debt"
Why can't I seem to find SPY 45,000 June calls on my broker's screen? I want to load up!
I keep asking myself this question: where will the equity investors park their cash? I don't see a massive rotation into UST to drive the 10Y below 1%. These investors also won't need to sell to raise cash...because there is plenty of cash. Only WTI/Brent price is going to derail this MF.
I think its black magic