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Another Dow Record As 3:30 Pump Becomes 3:30 Dump

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The 'down-up' streak is over, long live the next streak. Precious metals had a big day with Silver and Gold surging 1-2% (among the biggest moves in 7 months); Treasuries pushed higher in yield from the open but faded rapidly into the close to end unchanged ay 1.75%; Commodities in general were bid on the back (supposedly) of China's lower inflation print; IG credit was bid while HY credit (spreads not the HYG ETF) rolled over into the close. What was most evident was the total and utter failure of the 3:30pm Ramp - it seems our discussion of the farce last night brought a world of front-runners to the game and ruined the Algos day as instead rallying S&P 500 futures dropped 4 points in the last 30 minutes - this is the biggest 3:30-to-4:00 loss in six week (and 3rd biggest of year). The world was celebrating another new all-time high in the Dow and the S&P gave back half its gains to close +4 points; but the Dow Transports closed -0.3%, and the Russell 2000 (for so long Bernanke's policy tool) ended -0.23%.

It seems the algos have been defeated for once...

 

as S&P 500 plunges back to VWAP at the close...

 

The Nasdaq won the day but the Russell and Dow Transports were not happy into the close...

 

Why did the Nasdaq win today (and turn around when it did)? Our guess is - the algotron-5000 needed to get the index back up to pre-Cyprus levels before the big boys could dump to retail in size...

 

There was an apparent up-in-quality and up-in-capital strcuture shift late today...

 

And while bonds ended unchanged, JPY weakness (more against EUR than USD) provided the impetus for stocks surge but the algos were foiled in that last 30...

 

and commodities had a good day...

 

as it seems like at least one big player was forced to buy back in (judging by Silver's spike)...

VIX ended back under 13% - but still well north of the 11% levels we saw when stocks were here last time...

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: It look svery similar from a BTFD perspective - except we never made it back to trend this time and the late-day fade is notable...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: Just when the 'shorts' thought they had a chance of outperforming... they get snapped back to reality... Since the Italian election 'dump' in stocks, shorts were starting to do ok very recently but in the last 3 days the most-shorted names in the Russell 3000 have been smashed/squeezed higher back in line with the index itself post-Italy... obviously - it is pretty clear that this was also a month that started with shorts being actually sold - and outperforming by 300bps until last friday - but now back to normal...

 

Bonus Bonus Bonus Chart: For those with a neutral market view, perhaps the most obvious pairs trade is HYG vs SPY (at around a 3x delta) adding to the position as it widens away from fair - especially in light of the redemptions that HYG is seeing...


 

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Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:29 | 3428275 chdwlch1
chdwlch1's picture

No POMO tomorrow = 3:30pm dump?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:53 | 3428370 ACP
ACP's picture

"...runied the Algos day as instead orallying S&P 500 futures..."

Yes, that's a far better description than what was originally intended in the article. Wall St on its knees before the Bernank.

 

"Today the algos oralled the futures into the close..."

"Yesterday, Sen. Schumer oralled the Bernank to 'get to work'..."

...and so on and so forth...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:29 | 3428279 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

up arrow damm it not down arrow

 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:33 | 3428307 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I was getting seasick anyway.

Now I'm just sick.  Go go Gadget iDow High!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:30 | 3428284 knicks3005
knicks3005's picture

Say What Again's dream became a reality.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:30 | 3428289 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Only two streaks that matter:  1)  Nearly daily POMO streak.  2)  The streak in Ben's underware if the S&P drops more than 2%.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:30 | 3428293 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

Confounded robots.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:33 | 3428297 Flaming Ferrari
Flaming Ferrari's picture

Oh dear. Just as the "3:30 Hidden Hand Manipulation Exploiter System" was getting into its stride.

"Up day/Down Day" "system" will have to be shelved too.

 

 

 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:33 | 3428299 Cursive
Cursive's picture

This "market" is going to go down looking like Kate Upton and turn into Snooki.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:32 | 3428306 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

Looks like there were many trying to front run the 3:30 run.  Volumes seemed to pick up around 3:00.  Maybe the computers are having a little Pavlovian fun.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:33 | 3428314 natronic
natronic's picture

Keep buying silver full speed ahead!!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:37 | 3428332 e m m
e m m's picture

It's either a sport to go against the ZH mindset in the market or must say good job luring in the retards for the 3:30 event.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:40 | 3428335 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Somehow i feel reminded of David Lynch's "Mulholland Drive", I don't know why ...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:41 | 3428339 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Crushed by a steam roller. You know that's going to leave a mark...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:41 | 3428340 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Yaa ZH. You busted them again.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:45 | 3428346 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Totaly out of the channel now...uh oh. Makes you wonder how many giddy sure-thing guys got skinned alive today after going all-in at 3:30.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:45 | 3428363 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm pretty sure our grandchildren will once see a eps that justifies eps for these prices.... and a carrot will cost 3000$...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:47 | 3428369 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

The HY market peeled off today, so prob some institions ligtening up in front of Ben the POS's POMO algo.

There is 1.5B of POMO tomorrow, http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

Well of course that is if Ben the POS hasn't already bought the issues that are listed for the rest of April. Just front date the trading slip...hey there an app for that !

Y'know...just buy them now ahead of published schedule, as they might become more expensive later.

 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:51 | 3428384 jomama
jomama's picture

this one of those reverse inverse correllation thingys?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:52 | 3428397 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i wanted to puke at the end of the day when they had that douchebag neil hennesey on cnbc. he fucking said this market is ''undervalued'', economy is much better than people believe, and that there still is anywhere from 11 to 30 percent upside in this market. he also capped his retardedness off by saying how japan is the place to be as it is doing great things.

 

also, fuck u fed and wall st and obama u mother fucking asshole douchebags, u think ur going to sucker anyone here in with ur 330 dump this time, trying to pretend that it actually is a real market and ppl take profits?

 

fuck u assholes, i will not be suckered into this ponzi scheme until it fucking crahses so bad that 2008 is what people are begging for. fuck u wall st, ben and obama, hope u all die terrible deaths every single one of u guys, u fucking thieves.

 

this market trades on zero fundementals, no one takes profits, its truly astonishing. enjoy it while it lasts bc i cant wait to laugh when every single one of u douchebags on wall st loses ur shirt.

 

fuck u wall st again, u fucking thieves. ive never in my life seen markets so disconnected from reality, its truly an historic thing, something that i will tell my grandkids one day. 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:17 | 3428489 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"i wanted to puke at the end of the day when they had that douchebag neil hennesey on cnbc. he fucking said this market is ''undervalued'', economy is much better than people believe, and that there still is anywhere from 11 to 30 percent upside in this market."

Keep in mind who owns the networks.  Rich men will need retail suckers to buy their shares one day so they can cash out.  Let the crooks keep bidding these phony markets higher, and watch with delight when they start rushing for the exits.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 16:53 | 3428401 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Worried 'Chair Satan' might take a few ice cubes out of the punch bowl tomorrow. (Fed. Minutes)

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:33 | 3428502 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Agreed.  Much as I'd love to believe ZH-inspired front-running ruined the algos' day, in truth the Tylers have been pointing this out at least thrice weekly for about a year, so I doubt yesterday's headline story was the culprit.  

Instead, it's pretty clear that lately either Japanese or European money is coming in from 11-2 (and the crude, fat-assed candles provide evidence of their inferior buy algos vs. our sneaky, evil ones), or folks have been front-running pre-lunch to avoid missing the fun.  Either way, with any Fed day being a glorious one for the algos (e.g., "my candle is bigger than your candle"), I believe discretion proved to be the better part of valor (or, given the stylishness of the algos, perhaps "velour" would be a better word choice) and the typical post 3:00 ramp would set off stops that could have rocketed this puppy too far for their comfort before hearing the goods tomorrow.  

Does anyone doubt that if they don't read what they don't like tomorrow we won't fail to ramp ?  Excuse the triple negatives, but these markets cause a bit of vertigo, do they not?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:13 | 3428476 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Let Chairsatan keep promoting this market pumping with ZIRP and QE.  Sooner or later, the robber barons WILL need dupes to buy their overpriced shares for them to realize profits.  The scramble for the exits is going to be EPIC when they try to sell and retail investors refuse to buy their shares.

FUBAR.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 18:04 | 3428624 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Don't worry, they will sell at the same time the Fed executes its exit plan. Everything will be safe and contained.

 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:16 | 3428484 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

Pass Go. Do not collect $200...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:28 | 3428521 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

Obligatory.

I've always felt nostalgic over the could-have-beens of that era. Trams, mass aerial transit, travel that was a pleasure and not meat-in-a-can.

Oh well. We deal with reality, not the possibilities now made impossibilities. Note: you can keep using a bellows to keep a fire hot, but when there's no coke[1] you'll cease producing those Hanzo swords soon enough.

 

 

 

 

[1]Thatcher & look over to US figures just out for your Cliff notes. Plus this delightful snippet of cold war history regarding Pepsi, CCCP and old submarines [via Reddit].

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:35 | 3428540 Muppet
Muppet's picture

Singing today "I fought the Fed... and the Fed won.   I fought the Fed... and the Fed won".

Im exasperated.  Kicked my ass.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:38 | 3428553 Aurora Ex Machina
Aurora Ex Machina's picture

If you've not worked it out yet, this is the current market.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:40 | 3428561 Bear
Bear's picture

Always happens the day after it is exposed on ZeroHedge

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 17:42 | 3428562 altgeek
altgeek's picture

My call on the ES: Those that held short from 4/2 and 4/3 1558.75 to 68 range bought-to-cover around 1:15PM ET. There are those still holding short and they may have driven the market down 2:50PM to the close. A lame trading day with few real trends. Nothing that looked like crazy algos to me today (not to say it doesn't happen every few days.)

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 18:25 | 3428696 Trampy
Trampy's picture

don't miss WASDE tomorrow April 10, noon ET.   can May corn break $6.00 this year? 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 18:03 | 3428620 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Love the bonus charts. And thank goodness inflation is nil. I was worried for a while.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 18:52 | 3428779 Bloody Chiclitz
Bloody Chiclitz's picture

Same shit different day until it isn't.

I'm thinking the stored up energy in this coiled up mess is gonna unwind with a new kind of ugly. 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 19:00 | 3428810 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

WTF ... keep 'em guessing ... a little.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 19:45 | 3428973 jim249
jim249's picture

The markets have been socialized. Ben can never take the punchbowl away. It will be qe forever. Try to take away the foodstamps and welfare checks from the dead beats and see what happens. This country is screwed.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 20:57 | 3429176 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Fuck you Wall Street  - the best you are going to get from most is a couple of put orders.

 

You can keep passing your orders around between GS and JPM, but it isn't going to work.

 

You are the bag holders this time Wall Street.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:17 | 3434446 Trampy
Trampy's picture

Soybeans ZS and soy meal ZM often have sharp 30-min rally (or selloff) when trading starts in China at 9 AM Beijing time, (9 PM EDT, 8 PM EST). 

Fun starts exactly an hour after the (new) US Globex open.

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