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Small Businesses Planning To Hire: 0%

Tyler Durden's picture


In a shocking state of affairs, it would appear the stock market's wealth effect is not rubbing off on the real economy. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) shows 0% of their members planning to hire. One can only presume we need moar QE, moar deficits, and moar wealth effect.

Recovery? 0%!!


So much for the wealth effect...


Goldman's take on the NFIB data:

Small business optimism declined to 89.5 in March (vs consensus 89.8), from 90.8 in February. Components of the survey were consistent with the decline in headline optimism, as the net percent of respondents planning to hire fell to 0% (from +4%), those expecting higher sales fell to -4% (from +1%), and those reporting that it is a good time to expand ticked down to +4% (from +5%). The net percent of respondents expecting the economy to improve was unchanged at -28%, a very depressed level. However, on the positive side, +25% of respondents plan increased capital spending [ZH: With Alcoa CapEx spending at a 2 year low]. Small business owners continue to place poor sales, taxes, and red tape at the top of their list of business problems, as they have for the past several years.

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Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:30 | 3425683 docj
docj's picture



Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425695 malikai
malikai's picture

Green sharts everywhere!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:37 | 3425718 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

Makes me feel sheepish for planning to hire someone.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:56 | 3425832 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

If you have work for them to do, you have nothing to be sheepish about.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:31 | 3426012 Popo
Popo's picture

Unfortunately, this is the kind of statistic that makes the religious zealots at the Federal Reserve think, "Maybe we need some more stimulus".

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 11:29 | 3426644 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Does nobody else notice the blatant flaw in this story?

"Percentage of small businesses planning to hire" would be a simple survey and would obviously have a range of 0% to 100%. The headline implies that businesses were asked flat-out "Are you planning to hire? Yes/No" and not a single one checked off "Yes."

Yet the chart dips into negative territory.

Seems to me that the only way a hiring poll could go into negative territory is if it's surveynig "Net hiring intentions".

And if "Net hiring intentions" are zero, that means that small businesses are planning on hiring as many people as they plan on cutting.

This is bad news, to be sure, but nowhere near the absurd scenario implied by the headline.

I expect better than this yellow journalism from ZeroHedge, frankly.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 11:32 | 3426658 Manthong
Manthong's picture

It is tragic that most well intentioned people do not understand  that the collectivists who are driving the pathetic “debate” in this sorry-ass country are celebrating how well their strategy is playing out.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 14:55 | 3427744 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Are you planning on hiring? 

If number of yes equal number of no, net equals zero.  If more nos, negative?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:41 | 3425734 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

If we could just lower interest rates, I think we could get things going.


Fuck You Bernanke

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 19:21 | 3428903 archon
archon's picture

In theory, negative interest rates are possible.  MOAR! MOAR! MOAR!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:43 | 3425751 Banksters
Banksters's picture

During this summer of recovery we'll have 250-500 k jobs a month created.  - 2010  Joe Biden

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:57 | 3425835 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

In the US, Joe?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 19:21 | 3428896 archon
archon's picture


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425685 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Wow that last chart implies a 500 point correction in the S&P..or a massive tsunami of hiring is about to be unleashed....or the S&P rocketed from the start of QE4eva and don't give a shit about anything or anyone.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:43 | 3425750 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:47 | 3425768 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

winner winner horsemeat dinner!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:00 | 3425858 pods
pods's picture

Can I get some "calamari" for starters?


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:17 | 3425957 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Its now actually 'catamari', but don't tell anyone...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:37 | 3426036 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Is that why none are floating down the river?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:09 | 3425916 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

yes!....although I prefer camel

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:59 | 3426463 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

Are you the guy that put President Hollande's camel into a stew pot? 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:49 | 3425777 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Only Bernanke Bucks imply ANYTHING whatsoever. Remember it.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:00 | 3425855 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

Seems like a decent punt, a close on 30% correction once all the middle classes have been wiped out of their retirement funds, be rude of Wall St to leave 'em with anything...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:49 | 3425690 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Thanks to enlightened leadership our economy is evolving into a more fair and sustainable system.  Small businesses as we once knew them are simply part of the failed capitalist policies of the past.

The future will consist of much larger, more efficient organizations run by experts working hand-in-hand with their counterparts in government who are in the best positions to determine in which direction various actors within the economy should be applying their efforts.

Community-based co-ops (conducting business for a reasonable profit in full compliance with all relevant regulations, permits, licensing, supervision and fees) should replace most small businesses as we know them.

Did I get that right?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:54 | 3425811 css1971
css1971's picture

MDB, you got competition.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:59 | 3425845 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Onward, to the failed capitalist policies of the future!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:28 | 3426001 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

"I can't worry about every undercapatilized business" - Hillary Clinton.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 12:53 | 3427032 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

" at this point WHAT does it matter?"
Hitlerly Clinton

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:34 | 3426028 duo
duo's picture

Hillary, is that you?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425693 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

That's all, folks!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425694 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Nobody needs to work when on disability or has an EBT card so it's green shoots as far as the eye can see.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:35 | 3425699 Debtless
Debtless's picture

One man's job is Control P, the rest are irrelevant and being phased out.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:35 | 3425703 HD
HD's picture

With the Fed looking for ever more excuses to print I'm sure they are thrilled.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:37 | 3425713 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



You left out the engine of big growth - moar Obamacare.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:39 | 3425722 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

The economy is so challenging that we should forgive companies for low earnings, yet at the same time things are going so great we should invest in the shares of said companies? We are being told that things are simultaneously terrible and superduper.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:02 | 3425868 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Dividends wut?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:03 | 3425872 pods
pods's picture

Yep, this economy reminds me of that shirt:

"I hate being bipolar.  It's awesome!"


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:40 | 3425723 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

<------MOAR LIKE

<------NO LIKE

I recall one .9999 fine afternoon on my way back from the office I stopped off at the local bar and sat down next to a drunken ventriloquist and his dummy:


Bartender:"What 'ill be"

Me:"Jus' a whiskey"

Dummy:"Howz aboutz you make that a double"

Me:"Hey,how did ya do that?,I mean ya partners out cold who's make'n ya talk?"

Dummy:"Well smartass,with over 20 years experience in the entertainment industry ya tend to pick a thing up or two.......hey.bartender,cancel that order and make that two double wiskey's and make that double quick"

Bartender:"Okay,two double whiskey's comin'up"

Me:"Wassup with ya partner?"

Dummy:"Ohhh him ya mean,he's just a drunk, a failure ,a quitter and born loser.I keep tellin' him to quit the booze cos'its the economy stupid see so stop blaming yourself.All this QE nonsense ain't doin' much for us poor folks business wise that is.See,things have gone pretty rough in theatre business,the audience the crowd aren't what they used to be,nobody seems to interested anymore."

Me:"YEAH....tooo baaad,ya shoulda bought some gold and sliver years ago"

Dummy:"OH YEAH.....well ya can't eat gold smartass"


Dummy:"See,we jus' need something else,a new act,a different routine"

Me:"Listen,jus' dump your partner and go long the Dow and the S&P"

Dummy:"Hey,buddy overhere shhhhhhh ,dont mention this to anyone,if you wanna really now eventhough our entertainment business is on the rocks our joint investements are doing spectacularliy since luckily I, yes Me invested our entire fortune in that Bitcoin venture which will make the both us millionaires any day now and we'll be both on easy street"..

Me:"Now isn't that swell"

Dummy:"Hey buddy I 'ave got it.........how aboutz we get together?":

Me:"WHHAAAAT ME?,nahh.....no way...ah-ah....i ain't shoving my hand up no dummys ass"

Dummy:"HEY WISEGUY,now who do you suppose is makin' me talk.....dumbass"

Me:"Ya got a point there....HEY,WHO YA CALLIN' DUMBASS YA DUMMYASS"

Dummy:"HEY BUDDY,don't leave I was only kiddin'......ha-ha-hehe-he-he...HEY BARTENDER...... A BOTTLE OF THE BEST YA GOT"

Bartender:"OK....One Dom Perignon Methuselah comin'up"

Dummy:" Now,lets get back to business shall we.....he-he-heheh"


Bartender:"C'mon fellas its way past closing time"

Dummy:"So what d'ya' say buddy.....we partners?"

Me:"So, ya thought ya got me all liquored up......listen,I dont make deals with no wooden whacko dummy....ya 'ear"

Bartender 's Assisitant:"Your bill gentlemen...."



Me:"Dammit, left my american express in my other suit"




Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:41 | 3425729 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Give Dimon another bonus.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:40 | 3425732 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

NFIB is now a terrorist organization.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:41 | 3425736 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I wish all the worst on our Manical Monetizer class.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:04 | 3425879 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You misspelled 'manacle'. ;)


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:43 | 3425738 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

One word... Obamacare

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:45 | 3425758 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Exactly, Dear Leader is fucking stupid.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:44 | 3426079 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Absolutely correct, and as predicted by a great many people on this board and elsewhere... +1000

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:02 | 3426178 Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

It should be renamed "obamacouldcareless"

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:44 | 3425748 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

the stock market's wealth effect is not rubbing off on the real economy.

It didn't work when they called it trickle down either. Maybe it will if they change the name again. As the saying goes, the third time is the charm....or not.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:49 | 3425786 Cookie
Cookie's picture

I first heard the term trickle down in respect of the booming Thai economy in 1985, when the local elites were making a killing. It did not work then and does not work now. Thailand is still full of dirt poor people.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:52 | 3425801 HD
HD's picture

"Rubbing Off",  "Trickle Down" on the economy - there seems to be a theme. Maybe they can change the name to something more accurate like "Donkey Punch"* economy.


*Ladies - if you don't know what that term is don't google it. It's not, uh, nice.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:11 | 3425933 reload
reload's picture

I watched the film `four horsmen` last night.

They had a neat graphic to demonstrate how anything that did `trickle down` would have lost its purchasing power by the time it did start to move down.

Worth watching if you have not seen it already.


I own a small business here in the UK (Just 12 employees) and I have no intention of hiring anybody anytime soon. Some days I wonder why I bother at all. Only people doing well over here work for Government or in some Government protected sector.


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