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Small Businesses Planning To Hire: 0%

Tyler Durden's picture


In a shocking state of affairs, it would appear the stock market's wealth effect is not rubbing off on the real economy. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) shows 0% of their members planning to hire. One can only presume we need moar QE, moar deficits, and moar wealth effect.

Recovery? 0%!!


So much for the wealth effect...


Goldman's take on the NFIB data:

Small business optimism declined to 89.5 in March (vs consensus 89.8), from 90.8 in February. Components of the survey were consistent with the decline in headline optimism, as the net percent of respondents planning to hire fell to 0% (from +4%), those expecting higher sales fell to -4% (from +1%), and those reporting that it is a good time to expand ticked down to +4% (from +5%). The net percent of respondents expecting the economy to improve was unchanged at -28%, a very depressed level. However, on the positive side, +25% of respondents plan increased capital spending [ZH: With Alcoa CapEx spending at a 2 year low]. Small business owners continue to place poor sales, taxes, and red tape at the top of their list of business problems, as they have for the past several years.


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Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:30 | 3425683 docj
docj's picture



Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425695 malikai
malikai's picture

Green sharts everywhere!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:37 | 3425718 New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

Makes me feel sheepish for planning to hire someone.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:56 | 3425832 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

If you have work for them to do, you have nothing to be sheepish about.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:31 | 3426012 Popo
Popo's picture

Unfortunately, this is the kind of statistic that makes the religious zealots at the Federal Reserve think, "Maybe we need some more stimulus".

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 11:29 | 3426644 TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Does nobody else notice the blatant flaw in this story?

"Percentage of small businesses planning to hire" would be a simple survey and would obviously have a range of 0% to 100%. The headline implies that businesses were asked flat-out "Are you planning to hire? Yes/No" and not a single one checked off "Yes."

Yet the chart dips into negative territory.

Seems to me that the only way a hiring poll could go into negative territory is if it's surveynig "Net hiring intentions".

And if "Net hiring intentions" are zero, that means that small businesses are planning on hiring as many people as they plan on cutting.

This is bad news, to be sure, but nowhere near the absurd scenario implied by the headline.

I expect better than this yellow journalism from ZeroHedge, frankly.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 11:32 | 3426658 Manthong
Manthong's picture

It is tragic that most well intentioned people do not understand  that the collectivists who are driving the pathetic “debate” in this sorry-ass country are celebrating how well their strategy is playing out.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 14:55 | 3427744 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Are you planning on hiring? 

If number of yes equal number of no, net equals zero.  If more nos, negative?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:41 | 3425734 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

If we could just lower interest rates, I think we could get things going.


Fuck You Bernanke

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 19:21 | 3428903 archon
archon's picture

In theory, negative interest rates are possible.  MOAR! MOAR! MOAR!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:43 | 3425751 Banksters
Banksters's picture

During this summer of recovery we'll have 250-500 k jobs a month created.  - 2010  Joe Biden

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:57 | 3425835 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

In the US, Joe?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 19:21 | 3428896 archon
archon's picture


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425685 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Wow that last chart implies a 500 point correction in the S&P..or a massive tsunami of hiring is about to be unleashed....or the S&P rocketed from the start of QE4eva and don't give a shit about anything or anyone.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:43 | 3425750 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:47 | 3425768 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

winner winner horsemeat dinner!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:00 | 3425858 pods
pods's picture

Can I get some "calamari" for starters?


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:17 | 3425957 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Its now actually 'catamari', but don't tell anyone...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:37 | 3426036 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture



Is that why none are floating down the river?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:09 | 3425916 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

yes!....although I prefer camel

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:59 | 3426463 Mototard at Large
Mototard at Large's picture

Are you the guy that put President Hollande's camel into a stew pot? 

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:49 | 3425777 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Only Bernanke Bucks imply ANYTHING whatsoever. Remember it.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:00 | 3425855 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

Seems like a decent punt, a close on 30% correction once all the middle classes have been wiped out of their retirement funds, be rude of Wall St to leave 'em with anything...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:49 | 3425690 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Thanks to enlightened leadership our economy is evolving into a more fair and sustainable system.  Small businesses as we once knew them are simply part of the failed capitalist policies of the past.

The future will consist of much larger, more efficient organizations run by experts working hand-in-hand with their counterparts in government who are in the best positions to determine in which direction various actors within the economy should be applying their efforts.

Community-based co-ops (conducting business for a reasonable profit in full compliance with all relevant regulations, permits, licensing, supervision and fees) should replace most small businesses as we know them.

Did I get that right?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:54 | 3425811 css1971
css1971's picture

MDB, you got competition.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:59 | 3425845 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Onward, to the failed capitalist policies of the future!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:28 | 3426001 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

"I can't worry about every undercapatilized business" - Hillary Clinton.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 12:53 | 3427032 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

" at this point WHAT does it matter?"
Hitlerly Clinton

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:34 | 3426028 duo
duo's picture

Hillary, is that you?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425693 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

That's all, folks!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:32 | 3425694 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Nobody needs to work when on disability or has an EBT card so it's green shoots as far as the eye can see.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:35 | 3425699 Debtless
Debtless's picture

One man's job is Control P, the rest are irrelevant and being phased out.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:35 | 3425703 HD
HD's picture

With the Fed looking for ever more excuses to print I'm sure they are thrilled.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:37 | 3425713 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



You left out the engine of big growth - moar Obamacare.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:39 | 3425722 Dr Benway
Dr Benway's picture

The economy is so challenging that we should forgive companies for low earnings, yet at the same time things are going so great we should invest in the shares of said companies? We are being told that things are simultaneously terrible and superduper.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:02 | 3425868 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Dividends wut?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:03 | 3425872 pods
pods's picture

Yep, this economy reminds me of that shirt:

"I hate being bipolar.  It's awesome!"


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:40 | 3425723 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

<------MOAR LIKE

<------NO LIKE

I recall one .9999 fine afternoon on my way back from the office I stopped off at the local bar and sat down next to a drunken ventriloquist and his dummy:


Bartender:"What 'ill be"

Me:"Jus' a whiskey"

Dummy:"Howz aboutz you make that a double"

Me:"Hey,how did ya do that?,I mean ya partners out cold who's make'n ya talk?"

Dummy:"Well smartass,with over 20 years experience in the entertainment industry ya tend to pick a thing up or two.......hey.bartender,cancel that order and make that two double wiskey's and make that double quick"

Bartender:"Okay,two double whiskey's comin'up"

Me:"Wassup with ya partner?"

Dummy:"Ohhh him ya mean,he's just a drunk, a failure ,a quitter and born loser.I keep tellin' him to quit the booze cos'its the economy stupid see so stop blaming yourself.All this QE nonsense ain't doin' much for us poor folks business wise that is.See,things have gone pretty rough in theatre business,the audience the crowd aren't what they used to be,nobody seems to interested anymore."

Me:"YEAH....tooo baaad,ya shoulda bought some gold and sliver years ago"

Dummy:"OH YEAH.....well ya can't eat gold smartass"


Dummy:"See,we jus' need something else,a new act,a different routine"

Me:"Listen,jus' dump your partner and go long the Dow and the S&P"

Dummy:"Hey,buddy overhere shhhhhhh ,dont mention this to anyone,if you wanna really now eventhough our entertainment business is on the rocks our joint investements are doing spectacularliy since luckily I, yes Me invested our entire fortune in that Bitcoin venture which will make the both us millionaires any day now and we'll be both on easy street"..

Me:"Now isn't that swell"

Dummy:"Hey buddy I 'ave got aboutz we get together?":

Me:"WHHAAAAT ME?, way...ah-ah....i ain't shoving my hand up no dummys ass"

Dummy:"HEY WISEGUY,now who do you suppose is makin' me talk.....dumbass"

Me:"Ya got a point there....HEY,WHO YA CALLIN' DUMBASS YA DUMMYASS"

Dummy:"HEY BUDDY,don't leave I was only kiddin'......ha-ha-hehe-he-he...HEY BARTENDER...... A BOTTLE OF THE BEST YA GOT"

Bartender:"OK....One Dom Perignon Methuselah comin'up"

Dummy:" Now,lets get back to business shall we.....he-he-heheh"


Bartender:"C'mon fellas its way past closing time"

Dummy:"So what d'ya' say buddy.....we partners?"

Me:"So, ya thought ya got me all liquored up......listen,I dont make deals with no wooden whacko dummy....ya 'ear"

Bartender 's Assisitant:"Your bill gentlemen...."


Me:"Dammit, left my american express in my other suit"



Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:41 | 3425729 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Give Dimon another bonus.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:40 | 3425732 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

NFIB is now a terrorist organization.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:41 | 3425736 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I wish all the worst on our Manical Monetizer class.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:04 | 3425879 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You misspelled 'manacle'. ;)


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:43 | 3425738 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

One word... Obamacare

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:45 | 3425758 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Exactly, Dear Leader is fucking stupid.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:44 | 3426079 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Absolutely correct, and as predicted by a great many people on this board and elsewhere... +1000

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:02 | 3426178 Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

It should be renamed "obamacouldcareless"

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:44 | 3425748 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

the stock market's wealth effect is not rubbing off on the real economy.

It didn't work when they called it trickle down either. Maybe it will if they change the name again. As the saying goes, the third time is the charm....or not.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:49 | 3425786 Cookie
Cookie's picture

I first heard the term trickle down in respect of the booming Thai economy in 1985, when the local elites were making a killing. It did not work then and does not work now. Thailand is still full of dirt poor people.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:52 | 3425801 HD
HD's picture

"Rubbing Off",  "Trickle Down" on the economy - there seems to be a theme. Maybe they can change the name to something more accurate like "Donkey Punch"* economy.


*Ladies - if you don't know what that term is don't google it. It's not, uh, nice.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:11 | 3425933 reload
reload's picture

I watched the film `four horsmen` last night.

They had a neat graphic to demonstrate how anything that did `trickle down` would have lost its purchasing power by the time it did start to move down.

Worth watching if you have not seen it already.


I own a small business here in the UK (Just 12 employees) and I have no intention of hiring anybody anytime soon. Some days I wonder why I bother at all. Only people doing well over here work for Government or in some Government protected sector.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:45 | 3425752 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

The thugs that own and control the money don't give a fuck about small business. Small business is competition anyway, fuck'em let them all die off I say..  the sooner they die the less legislation congress needs to pass in order prevent them from competing with our lobby masters


/sarc    I truly feel sorry for small business caught up in the ponzi.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:39 | 3426061 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Small biz is non-union.  Therefore, expendable.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:47 | 3425770 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Gotta be seasonal. Cold weather. And all that.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:05 | 3425894 pods
pods's picture

It was cold front George.  That damn thing brought clouds and rain to near half the country!


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:47 | 3425772 css1971
css1971's picture

Fucking bullish!

Mr. Chairman get the fuck off your fat arse and start printing 100s not 20s.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:51 | 3425785 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Forget hiring anyone...many are going bankrupt since they operate on tiny margins and with the recent postal rate increase they went Belly Up. Add that to increased health insurance premiums and they got crushed.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:51 | 3425798 shinobi-7
shinobi-7's picture

Who needs a job in a world where the Fed creates money and the government distribute it with abandon? Wealth effect without any "wealth". Who knows maybe it will work. 100% of the population spending 100% of their time on their i-phone or better immersed in virtual reality thanks to their Google glasses exchanging virtual goods and services for virtual money freely available... Brave new world!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 08:51 | 3425800 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

Is this news or a confirmation?  Any real small business can't readily address all of the new regulations without commiting a crime.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:38 | 3426049 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Dropping off the Federal Govt radar is Job #1 for any entrepreneur.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:00 | 3425849 realtick
Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:01 | 3425857 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Dear Employees...

When you die.... YOU WON'T BE REPLACED!!

But for Hygienic reasons we ask all of you to report corpses if you see any so we can ship them to the Soylent processing plants.


The Boss

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 13:31 | 3427206 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Bring out yer dead!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:02 | 3425876 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

It matters not. The SPX is close to hitting new all times highs again, just a few days after trading at 1538 on poor jobs numbers. There has been no reason for the rapid rise back up on disappointing economic data and not much volume to back it either. It would be nice to know who is actually doing the buying.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:07 | 3425893 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Its a national security issue, if they told ya they would have to kill ya.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:07 | 3425896 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

double plus bullish

after all, it's not as bad as it could have been...then again it never is.

summer of recovery ver. 9.0 coming soon to a small business near you.

maybe if the drought lets up we might actually see some green shoots this time...

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:06 | 3425897 Blano
Blano's picture

Why do the women in the CougarLife ad look like they're 25?  Am I really that old??

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:34 | 3426029 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

They use the same models on "barely legal" websites.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:10 | 3425915 MathWins
MathWins's picture

Thank you, Affordable Care Act.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:18 | 3425965 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Don't forget Dodd Frank.

A Double Tap to the economy.

No reviving this corpse now.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:21 | 3425976 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture


your welcome.


as a result of this latest sing of continuing economic prosperity, we are pleased to announce that chocolate rations have been increased to 32 grams.


the ministry of plenty.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:14 | 3425948 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

"However, on the positive side, +25% of respondents plan increased capital spending [ZH: With Alcoa CapEx spending at a 2 year low]."

hmm, what does Alcoa know that small biz don't?
or vice versa?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:18 | 3425959 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

Don't need: Jobs, Housing, Retail Consumption, profit, growth or Europe, China, Japan...We got Ben, who is way more than enough!!

And, and, and....He can keep 65% of the Nation on the Govt. dole, as we kick the shit out of Afghanistan, Iraq and North Korea, while raising US equity indices 25% in three months, AT THE VERY SAME FAWKIN TIME!!!

Is there anything he can't do??

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:32 | 3426020 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

The private sector is dead, long live the public sector.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:22 | 3425979 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

I have 3 small business's and I'm NOT hiring anyone.  Four years ago I had 30 employees, today I have three!!

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:36 | 3426041 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Twelve to six over the same period.

Same nominal turnover,but making more profit.All the overhead fat is gone.

Another downturn and who knows if I'll even bother.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:26 | 3425990 smacker
smacker's picture


And doesn't this say it all.

The nutters running central banks, their co-horts in government and fraudster co-horts in banking believe all that is necessary to kick-start growth is to pump money into the markets to give the impression of wealth. For sure, MSM is doing it's part in spreading this trash.

But none of them can get it into their swollen heads that business investment occurs, economies expand, employment expands and so on, when genuine confidence about the future exists. Essential confidence has been wrecked by the very same actions carried out by the aforementioned nutters.

Until the markets are allowed to clear, interest rates are allowed to normalise and QE is ended, there will not be a return of confidence. And the depression will continue until it all blows up and civil unrest breaks out.

Perhaps that is the real objective......

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:46 | 3426091 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture


That is the real objective, as you say. Only the naive believe the economic impact of recent fiscal and monetary policy decisions are unintended. The FEMA camps were built for a reason, namely, to be filled. Soft fascism upgraded to the boot on the neck variety in 3, 2, 1....

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:33 | 3426011 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Alcoa reported higher earnings (ie: they fired more people) on lower revenue (they've stuffed their channels to the brink with aluminum that the market doesn't need) and ....wait for it.....and they have 28 days of operating capital left.


Alcoa is doing the "Ben and Barry" buying up their stock - into bankruptcy. 


And then Alcoa goes out and gets some near zero percent financing.


But Alcoa is the only company doing this....right?

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:42 | 3426064 yogibear
yogibear's picture

In this market less jobs are bullish! Fire more people and watch CEO bonuses and stock prices go to the moon.

The Fed and government can boast about lower unemployment numbers as people disappear onto the ranks of Social Security Disability and welfare.

Bubble Bernanke and Fed created this higher unemployed economy.

The goal is over 50 million people on food stamps, more Obama phones, welfare and disability.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:47 | 3426093 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Not shocking at all.  The rate of year over year profit growth has fallen to a level that says 0% NFP growth for the year ending 9/2013.


And if the rate of profit growth falls even further, NFP will be much worse.  But with so many dropping out, unemployment still has a chance to fall.



Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:57 | 3426152 d edwards
d edwards's picture

F-ing 0webama is killing the economy.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 09:57 | 3426146 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

In business you hire in order to increase your revenue. Unless an employee can help ring your cash register (sales) there is no need to hire. This is the ultimate lesson that economists, academics and politicians always forget. Why do they forget? Its a lesson they never learn for they seldom work in a money making enterprise. The fact that these people have been governing our world since the end of WW2 is a testament to the stupidity of "we the people" who continue to elect them.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:13 | 3426225 Cynthia
Cynthia's picture

ObamaCare doesn't help matters.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:35 | 3426345 Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

Surely the Obamatax on the Obamillionaires is going to create jobs?  Yes - 1 job for every $1 million dollars of stimulus spending.

So screw Small Business. They are all Obamiilionaires earning over $200,000. In fact some of them are actual millionaires - it takes $1.4 million to open a new restaurant, and no bank is going to lend money to a new restaurant.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:42 | 3426385 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture

As someone who's currently looking for work, I can tell you that the job searching process is about as much fun as getting a wisdom tooth pulled. Usually, I see the same job ads over and over again. Also, getting an in-person interview these days is akin to winning the lottery.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:52 | 3426437 W74
W74's picture

Am about to graduate with an employable degree and I feel like I'm just a bunch of key terms in a giant word search.  I'd feel great if a human being actually looked at my resume before the (shall we say) algos chuck it to the wayside along with hundreds or thousands of other applicants.

I really don't want to go back into the military, but I will if I have to support my family.  Dying for overlords is not on my to-do list.  I don't want to serve the federal or any government at all, but the fact of the matter is that liberal feel-good-then-theft policies have made private sector activity difficult to engage in.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 13:22 | 3427163 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture

I completely understand. There aren't a ton of options these days. The only thing that I can tell you is that, for some professions like marketing, speculative portfolios sometimes help.

Occasionally, I get some consulting work. For that, having a Website describing my services helps a bit.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 10:46 | 3426397 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture it is only the large corporate crony outfits participating in the glorious recovery.

Imagine that.


Tue, 04/09/2013 - 11:06 | 3426490 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Why would I hire anybody, I got no customers.  All the dough the government is giving away is mostly ending up in the hands of the players, not the people who are customers of small businesses.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 11:41 | 3426702 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture


the Obama dividend.

But then, he is so cool.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 13:43 | 3427293 Conax
Conax's picture

He hired Justin temberflake to play the wh.. now that's cool, man.

Tue, 04/09/2013 - 15:30 | 3427872 RKDS
RKDS's picture

I run a small business.  I mean that in a very literal sense.  I worked for the startup capital, program the website, haul the products around, work with the customers, balance the books, etc.  There's more to running a small business than taking out a liar loan from the bank, putting your name on the truck/shop, and delegating all of the actual work to other people.  I'm the only employee and all of the responsibility, bad as well as good, falls on my shoulders alone.

There's a reason I'm not hiring right now and it has nothing to do with the boogeymen conjured by the rentier class and their imbecilic sycophants.  I believe that I should be able to support an employee before I try to hire one.  There must be enough work to keep them busy and enough financial stability to not have to fire them if there's a bump in the road.  The way I see it, employees are human beings, not disposable automatons.

So cry about the minimum wage and capital gains tax and fraud/pollution regulations if you want.  Keep crying and perhaps one day mommy government will stoop down to help your sorry ass.  Or buck up, have a little self-respect, and work to achieve something.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!