Breaking Bad

Tyler Durden's picture

With earnings season underway, perhaps pulling back to 30,000 feet is worthwhile to glance at the macro environment that is backing these new all-time high nominal stock prices. These six charts say it all...

Macro-economic data (levels and beats/misses) have rolled over after looking like it was different this time...


And all three global risk factors are becoming increasingly worrisome - from US growth, European 'risk', and China growth...


The business cycle has turned into slowdown...

as Global PMIs and Goldman's Leading Indicator roll over...


but, of course, stocks continue to levitate. It is worth noting the last time the difference between a 'macro-based' S&P and the market was this big was the nonchanlence leading into the debt-ceiling debacle in 2011...


and it would seem DM markets are more than due to realize these disappointments...


Charts: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
khakuda's picture

Yup. Asset bubbles. Only thing central banks are good at.

FinalCollapse's picture

All your equities are belong to us!

Groundhog Day's picture

Charts are meaningless when you have unlimited Fiat our disposal

razorthin's picture

Heh, heh, another way it's "different".

TraderTimm's picture

Be sure to link to the minute-chart for the Dow this may Tyler.

I know stories about the S&P 500 and the Dow Index aren't pulling in the pageviews like Bitcoin, but I think you'll get your chance to finally see a decline instead of a POMO pumped nightmare.

I've only been waiting close to three years for it - gotta happen, right?


Cdad's picture

Seriously global macro equity market price discovery is down to like....1 day forward looking?  And I am supposed to take this market seriously?

ebworthen's picture

Hey, Meth and Heroin make you feel great for a while, and Cocaine doesn't hurt either.

Somehow, this does not feel like sobriety, or "free market capitalism", or am I just the rehabilitation counselor with his "head in the sand" and missing out on all the fun?

Rogue Trooper's picture

Hunter S Thompson knew something. Same as it ever was.

Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Another good time to buy PM's on the dips.

The Second Rule's picture

I hear DPRK silver coins are going for $86/oz. Novelty value?

ziggy59's picture

Thats because soros partner bought lots of them..

jekyll island's picture

Vampire Squid said they were shorting gold today. That's all you need to know.

bonin006's picture

They said to sell, but did they actually say they were selling?

XRAYD's picture

All true, but one also need to dig underground, to say couple of hundred feet only, to see how the books are being "cooked" - specially in the bank footnotes! It is THIS that the FED is concerned about, including on its own "balance" sheet. What you can't see and deny the existence of, can't hurt you. Can it?

kliguy38's picture

Never in a million years will they let you see OR admit to ......its sealed by their law....the law of the beast.

Whoa Dammit's picture

OT: Atlanta hostage standoff news you probably won't see nationally. Shit happens when cable TV is cut off...


"According to property tax records, the home where the firefighters were held hostage was foreclosed on November 2012.  After the house was foreclosed on, the mortgage switched hands from Wells Fargo to Fannie Mae.

Authorities confirmed that the gunman made demands, during his initial contact with dispatch, that service be restored to his utilities which included cable and phone. "


aerojet's picture

The problem with these people is that they don't see the bigger picture--one guy pissed off about his foreclosure and cut off of utilities and cable takes hostages and gets shot and killed for it.  Ten thousand guys like that?  That's an army that can deal out some serious damage to the crooks in charge.  Why aren't Americans any good at banding together?  What is it about our current cultural anomie that prevents us from doing what our ancestors did in order to survive?  Imagine the cops showing up and being outnumbered and having to retreat.  That's the only way the little guy in America wins this, not by going down one by one and being terorrized by stricter gun control laws and eventually secret police abductions. 

maskone909's picture


maskone909's picture

Just had to one-up-me eh???
Haha thx 4 da link

fonzannoon's picture

why would anyone use gold and silver as money right now? I'd rather save as much as I could and transact in fiat until it all fell apart. Then go from there. No?

kridkrid's picture

For sure.  I would like to think that the legislation is simply Arizona preparing for life after the dollar.  They are creating a framework for a hopefully smoother transition.  But when push comes to shove, I don't think the feds will let Arizona "take their ball and go home". 

Ness.'s picture

I'm still tring to figure out my most recent Bitcoin statement, it reads...




I'm confused.

ziggy59's picture

It translates to...buyer beware

King_Julian's picture

It doesn't kick in until 2014 anyway.

Smuckers's picture

My always skeptical eye turns to this and thinks - what better way to confiscate than have people spend it willingly at these prices....
And do the people get gold & silver or fiat back for any change?

Don't get me wrong - I think it's positive - but maybe too early or has another motive at this time.

maskone909's picture

Psychologically this is progress through leaps and bounds.

lasvegaspersona's picture

Spending gold when fiat is available is against the law!




Greshams Law

aerojet's picture

Call me when I can get paid directly in gold or silver and use it to buy shit directly, too.  Then the Fed will be on the run.

ziggy59's picture

Madoff investors can't sue SEC -U.S. appeals court

So the crooks cover their tracks and asses once again...
One day they wont be able to dodge flying lead..

Stuck on Zero's picture

Scary.  The U.S. keeps plunging into bubble collapses but with larger and larger debt levels each time.


kridkrid's picture

That's how a Ponzi scheme works.

fonzannoon's picture

these fuckers have pushed the envelope too far and they know it. A 20% pullback and a massive amount of people take their ball and go home. Good luck to CNBC trying to explain it after all their cheerleading. Can they manage a 10% pullback and not lose control of the aircraft? That's the question.

Yen Cross's picture

     CNBS will beat the shit out of the dead horse, until it's pulverized, just like with AAPL. Then they will look for the next piece of shit to sell on their 24 hour infomercial.

fonzannoon's picture

which anchor will be the first to eat a horsemeat sandwich on air during their "chained CPI is good segment"?

Yen Cross's picture

     That dildo Pisonme gets my vote.

WillyGroper's picture

Hope it's Maria Fartaroma.

ziggy59's picture

Crap, Nothing But Crap makes Bernays' book, Propaganda look like the sunday funnies

WillyGroper's picture

>>>Then they will look for the next piece of shit to sell on their 24 hour infomercial.

Never better said!

bearish1's picture

Pasani: "We're off the lows, bitchez!!"

Supernova Born's picture

At the end of the day...we are drunk off our asses on Bernanke's Brew.

In the morning?

khakuda's picture

Respectfully, I'm not so sure they know anything.  I have thought all along that their goal is actually to create the mother of all bubbles.  That way they can get higher tax revenues a la Clinton, clean up the underwater books of the banks, reinflate home prices, reduce pension funding shortfalls and create the appearance of prosperity, telling us all along that the stock markets action MUST be saying the the economy is going to get better to boot.  Bernanke seriously thinks that 2008 was the crisis, not all the years leading up to it with all the capital misallocation and speculation prior to the collapse.

4 long years of this crap and it doesn't appear anywhere near over.  Having watched Lehman, don't assume that these guys have any clue.  Fuld still thinks his lack of risk management wasn't the problem, rather it was the fact that the government screwed him.

aerojet's picture

I understand the maneuver, but with wages stagnant, it doesn't really do any good. 

Ned Zeppelin's picture

Bernanke has got to be wishing the stock market was not rising as quickly as it is - before long I predict even the true believers (who are thus far accurate, but still fools who think they can time their exit, or that there is no "down") will be nervously eyeing the exits.

It's actually sort of embarrassing, isn't it?

The Second Rule's picture

The've run out of things to bubble. The next crash will be the last. And then we reset the whole system.

ziggy59's picture

No, they havent. Pms, then its repeat all the past bubbles..sheep are very forgiving and memory is DWS intervaled

aerojet's picture

I don't think they have anywhere left to go.  Already, low-wage workers don't bother to work anymore.  What happens when typical middle-class, white collar types have to realize that expenses have outrun their income and also stop going to work?  Add a zero on the back of everything you need to live, but don't add it to your salary and see what you end up with.

fonzannoon's picture

It is kind of embarrasing, It's like Bernanke pissed his pants and everyone is half staring and trying not to notice. Then, out of sympathy his Japanese friend violently craps his pants. Bernanke immediately points and says "look at that fuckin guy!".