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Breaking Bad
With earnings season underway, perhaps pulling back to 30,000 feet is worthwhile to glance at the macro environment that is backing these new all-time high nominal stock prices. These six charts say it all...
Macro-economic data (levels and beats/misses) have rolled over after looking like it was different this time...
And all three global risk factors are becoming increasingly worrisome - from US growth, European 'risk', and China growth...
The business cycle has turned into slowdown...
as Global PMIs and Goldman's Leading Indicator roll over...
but, of course, stocks continue to levitate. It is worth noting the last time the difference between a 'macro-based' S&P and the market was this big was the nonchanlence leading into the debt-ceiling debacle in 2011...
and it would seem DM markets are more than due to realize these disappointments...
Charts: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley
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Yup. Asset bubbles. Only thing central banks are good at.
All your equities are belong to us!
Charts are meaningless when you have unlimited Fiat our disposal
Heh, heh, another way it's "different".
Be sure to link to the minute-chart for the Dow this may Tyler.
I know stories about the S&P 500 and the Dow Index aren't pulling in the pageviews like Bitcoin, but I think you'll get your chance to finally see a decline instead of a POMO pumped nightmare.
I've only been waiting close to three years for it - gotta happen, right?
Seriously now...so global macro equity market price discovery is down to like....1 day forward looking? And I am supposed to take this market seriously?
Hey, Meth and Heroin make you feel great for a while, and Cocaine doesn't hurt either.
Somehow, this does not feel like sobriety, or "free market capitalism", or am I just the rehabilitation counselor with his "head in the sand" and missing out on all the fun?
Hunter S Thompson knew something. Same as it ever was.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm7r491n-8o
Another good time to buy PM's on the dips.
I hear DPRK silver coins are going for $86/oz. Novelty value?
Thats because soros partner bought lots of them..
Vampire Squid said they were shorting gold today. That's all you need to know.
They said to sell, but did they actually say they were selling?
All true, but one also need to dig underground, to say couple of hundred feet only, to see how the books are being "cooked" - specially in the bank footnotes! It is THIS that the FED is concerned about, including on its own "balance" sheet. What you can't see and deny the existence of, can't hurt you. Can it?
Never in a million years will they let you see OR admit to ......its sealed by their law....the law of the beast.
OT: Atlanta hostage standoff news you probably won't see nationally. Shit happens when cable TV is cut off...
"According to property tax records, the home where the firefighters were held hostage was foreclosed on November 2012. After the house was foreclosed on, the mortgage switched hands from Wells Fargo to Fannie Mae.
Authorities confirmed that the gunman made demands, during his initial contact with dispatch, that service be restored to his utilities which included cable and phone. "
http://www.11alive.com/news/article/287663/40/Gunman-who-took-firefighters-hostage-killed-after-standoff
The problem with these people is that they don't see the bigger picture--one guy pissed off about his foreclosure and cut off of utilities and cable takes hostages and gets shot and killed for it. Ten thousand guys like that? That's an army that can deal out some serious damage to the crooks in charge. Why aren't Americans any good at banding together? What is it about our current cultural anomie that prevents us from doing what our ancestors did in order to survive? Imagine the cops showing up and being outnumbered and having to retreat. That's the only way the little guy in America wins this, not by going down one by one and being terorrized by stricter gun control laws and eventually secret police abductions.
ARIZONA APPROVES GOLD SILVER LEGAL TENDER
http://rt.com/usa/tender-silver-gold-arizona-651/
For those who are intersted
Just had to one-up-me eh???
Haha thx 4 da link
why would anyone use gold and silver as money right now? I'd rather save as much as I could and transact in fiat until it all fell apart. Then go from there. No?
For sure. I would like to think that the legislation is simply Arizona preparing for life after the dollar. They are creating a framework for a hopefully smoother transition. But when push comes to shove, I don't think the feds will let Arizona "take their ball and go home".
I'm still tring to figure out my most recent Bitcoin statement, it reads...
100100110011110001110001110001011101010
I'm confused.
It translates to...buyer beware
It doesn't kick in until 2014 anyway.
My always skeptical eye turns to this and thinks - what better way to confiscate than have people spend it willingly at these prices....
And do the people get gold & silver or fiat back for any change?
Don't get me wrong - I think it's positive - but maybe too early or has another motive at this time.
Psychologically this is progress through leaps and bounds.
Spending gold when fiat is available is against the law!
Greshams Law
Call me when I can get paid directly in gold or silver and use it to buy shit directly, too. Then the Fed will be on the run.
Madoff investors can't sue SEC -U.S. appeals court
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/madoff-sec-idUSL2N0CX13W20130410
So the crooks cover their tracks and asses once again...
One day they wont be able to dodge flying lead..
Scary. The U.S. keeps plunging into bubble collapses but with larger and larger debt levels each time.
That's how a Ponzi scheme works.
these fuckers have pushed the envelope too far and they know it. A 20% pullback and a massive amount of people take their ball and go home. Good luck to CNBC trying to explain it after all their cheerleading. Can they manage a 10% pullback and not lose control of the aircraft? That's the question.
CNBS will beat the shit out of the dead horse, until it's pulverized, just like with AAPL. Then they will look for the next piece of shit to sell on their 24 hour infomercial.
which anchor will be the first to eat a horsemeat sandwich on air during their "chained CPI is good segment"?
That dildo Pisonme gets my vote.
LOL
I'd go with the big dumb animal Sullivan
Hope it's Maria Fartaroma.
Crap, Nothing But Crap makes Bernays' book, Propaganda look like the sunday funnies
>>>Then they will look for the next piece of shit to sell on their 24 hour infomercial.
Never better said!
Pasani: "We're off the lows, bitchez!!"
At the end of the day...we are drunk off our asses on Bernanke's Brew.
In the morning?
Respectfully, I'm not so sure they know anything. I have thought all along that their goal is actually to create the mother of all bubbles. That way they can get higher tax revenues a la Clinton, clean up the underwater books of the banks, reinflate home prices, reduce pension funding shortfalls and create the appearance of prosperity, telling us all along that the stock markets action MUST be saying the the economy is going to get better to boot. Bernanke seriously thinks that 2008 was the crisis, not all the years leading up to it with all the capital misallocation and speculation prior to the collapse.
4 long years of this crap and it doesn't appear anywhere near over. Having watched Lehman, don't assume that these guys have any clue. Fuld still thinks his lack of risk management wasn't the problem, rather it was the fact that the government screwed him.
I understand the maneuver, but with wages stagnant, it doesn't really do any good.
Bernanke has got to be wishing the stock market was not rising as quickly as it is - before long I predict even the true believers (who are thus far accurate, but still fools who think they can time their exit, or that there is no "down") will be nervously eyeing the exits.
It's actually sort of embarrassing, isn't it?
The've run out of things to bubble. The next crash will be the last. And then we reset the whole system.
No, they havent. Pms, then its repeat all the past bubbles..sheep are very forgiving and memory is DWS intervaled
I don't think they have anywhere left to go. Already, low-wage workers don't bother to work anymore. What happens when typical middle-class, white collar types have to realize that expenses have outrun their income and also stop going to work? Add a zero on the back of everything you need to live, but don't add it to your salary and see what you end up with.
It is kind of embarrasing, It's like Bernanke pissed his pants and everyone is half staring and trying not to notice. Then, out of sympathy his Japanese friend violently craps his pants. Bernanke immediately points and says "look at that fuckin guy!".
chuckle
Knee slappin guffaw.
Speaking of exits, I'm sure he can't wait to GTFO before this market rolls over
I wonder about that a lot. If I had to pick a black swan, a real one. I'd say we wake up one morning and Berbabke resigns because of some health issue. They would throw Yellen or some crazy ass dove in there but I think all bets would be off from there.
edit - I spelled bernanke wrong but I am on my 4th beer and it just looks funny now.
I just cant make sense of it, its clearly an equities bubble (tech bubble exploded), Financials were not really in a bubble before they popped, but now they clearly are in a bubble (they didn't re-inflate the bubble because it never popped it was just a scare before) now that they "inflated" the stocks its actually a bubble that will pop.
IMO Gold and Silver kinda go through this climb, stop move side-ways/pullback test support and then start climbing again, as central banks de-value gold/silver by shorting the market to keep the price down, they decrease the incentive to produce said metals, and manufacturing of said metals goes down (creating shortages, especially in silver which is why the price is so volotile).
Clearly we are in a bit of a silver shortage (slow-down in eagles production etc...) or at the begining of a silver shortage, price will climb again soon IMO but it may move down farther before that happwns (I want it to go down to like 18$/oz) even though I doubt getting that low is possible at this point (everything would be instantly bought up) and the banks would find themselves paying for a very expensive short squeeze.
IDK its interesting
It wont end until the "dollar bubble" pops and the dollar starts lossing value VERY QUICKLY.
What will pop first? Equities or Currency?
So what you are saying is that silver is gonna go up soon, but it might go down soon, first? Right? If so, I agree 100%.
As if we could take someone seriously when they claim there's a shortage of silver, anyway.
Yo what up? Where da parta tonight?
The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building
This is so beyond fucked up.
swirly chart makes me dizzy.
especially since the thing goes up when it might actually be compelled to go down
dizzy now, off to dizzy-land.
- Ned
But if everyone losses their shirt in an epic market collapse isn't that deflationary?
Quite a few of us are in the camp that there will be a quick (hyper?)deflationary period whicj will lead to the mother of all printfests which finally destroys the currency.
If I was on my desktop instead of my phone I would post a link to a previous ZH article. You can use the search to look it up. Search "treasury curve 1990 to 2010 full glory redux"
It is such a great article I remember the title becasuse ive read it so many times.
This is deflation we're talking about - it's going to be slow and painful, not quick.
Stay in college. Go to night school.
Gonna be different this time.
Write a letter. Send a postcard.
You can write anything at all.
This is a party. This is a disco.
This is merely fooling around.
That's what you get for pretending the danger's not real
Meek and obedient you follow the leader
Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel.
So old fashion....we can just print our way of problems. Wall Street loans the world into a hole...we just print more money for them!
US and World Market just discovered another " SIX REASONS" to break all the " RED LIGHTS " and find a new high with RSI of 100.
Above charts are good enough to push market further up but these charts are already playing their due role.
XLV - Health Care RSI 78
XLU - Utilities RSI 80
XLP - Consumer Staples 71
..................................................and Rising............every day since November. With little correction, number becomes neutral and rally move ahead with further force. Weired...........
Pretty soon RSI>100 and explodes to infinity. Welcome to Bennie's world.
What a surprise!
A look of terminal shock in their eyes!
Now things are really what they seem?
Must destroy...purchasing power!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcVXEFWVak0
Bus stop ratbag!
haha charade you are!
bullish
China may let local governments take larger VAT share at 45% up from 25%
- This trial tax replaces the business tax for some industries
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/china-may-let-local-governments-take-larg...
Of course once the rest of the world sees what govt, permit, no, cause, without terminal recourse, then everybody jumps into the pool..
Those red lines falling off remind me when I used to fly (and airplane) and go into a stall after lifting my nose up too high....scary as hell, esp when you go into a spin+stall......Holy Moly !!!!!!!
But it just HAS to be different this time! We have PRINTED prosperity now!
The Gutenberg Recovery.
He got legit game.
But this is fundamental analysis. Too complicated. There is only one question: is the CB of the currency in which your equity market is priced printing? If yes, buy.
Jest sayin'
can someone explain to me how the futures are always flat this time of night and dont move at all until early am?
we are so overbought, yet futures are flat, not red.
check this b.s article out by cnbc http://www.cnbc.com/id/100632218
ya, like the jobless claims matter. no matter what happens, it will be interpreted as positive and the market will skyrocket because its all fed money and no real money. stop making it seem like whatever happens in the economy actually makes a difference.
What is real money? Wait, I know the answer: gold.
Wouldn't the gold standard create a massive deflation? Which could be good, depending who you are. That is, if you have gold. But since most don't, wouldn't that mean widespread misery?
Mere misery for banksters if they are really lucky.
I thought Japan was the writing on the wall this week... ripples
If it were September 2008 and the Fed enacted QE one week before the Lehman collapse, would stocks have ever fallen? If not, then why can't this charade continue until there is some exogenous constraint to bring it down?
Well, I think you're right - the charade wii continue fo a while.
Create fiat, sell fiat, loan fiat X 20, buy fiat. Loop.
There is no macro, only endless loops.
meek and obedient......
I wallow in the fact that I am the most succesful that any American is likely to be.
Top That BITCHEZ!
It's kinda sad what I say
Old Times going away
Goodbye USA
Did you ever wonder why we had to run for shelter when the
promise of a brave new world unfurled beneath a clear blue
sky?
One good chart would have been better. I still say John. Mauldins chart of earnings was the best analysis I've seen yet. Reversion of corporate profits to the mean.
I suppose the logic is that it does not matter. The FED, or Mr. Bernanke at least, clearly sees the disconnect. And they know that by continuing on such a course, reversion to the mean is the only outcome. The stock market is going to be crushed, yet again.
The higher it goes now, perhaps the higher the base later.
AND, the banks are sitting on such a pile of reserves that they should be able to weather the next crash without imploding. And all the little doggies running the banks are happy again flush with bonus money. They have FAITH in the system!
That's it in a nutshell. As far as creating jobs, fixing structural issues, de-financializing the economy, and making sure that Weimar does not show up hat in hand, hah, good luck with that.
Dual mandate my a-s.