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Breaking Bad

Tyler Durden's picture


With earnings season underway, perhaps pulling back to 30,000 feet is worthwhile to glance at the macro environment that is backing these new all-time high nominal stock prices. These six charts say it all...

Macro-economic data (levels and beats/misses) have rolled over after looking like it was different this time...


And all three global risk factors are becoming increasingly worrisome - from US growth, European 'risk', and China growth...


The business cycle has turned into slowdown...

as Global PMIs and Goldman's Leading Indicator roll over...


but, of course, stocks continue to levitate. It is worth noting the last time the difference between a 'macro-based' S&P and the market was this big was the nonchanlence leading into the debt-ceiling debacle in 2011...


and it would seem DM markets are more than due to realize these disappointments...


Charts: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley


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Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:27 | 3434492 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Yup. Asset bubbles. Only thing central banks are good at.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:33 | 3434515 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

All your equities are belong to us!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:47 | 3434562 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Charts are meaningless when you have unlimited Fiat our disposal

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:22 | 3434923 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Heh, heh, another way it's "different".

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:56 | 3435035 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Be sure to link to the minute-chart for the Dow this may Tyler.

I know stories about the S&P 500 and the Dow Index aren't pulling in the pageviews like Bitcoin, but I think you'll get your chance to finally see a decline instead of a POMO pumped nightmare.

I've only been waiting close to three years for it - gotta happen, right?


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:32 | 3434501 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Seriously global macro equity market price discovery is down to like....1 day forward looking?  And I am supposed to take this market seriously?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:32 | 3434503 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Hey, Meth and Heroin make you feel great for a while, and Cocaine doesn't hurt either.

Somehow, this does not feel like sobriety, or "free market capitalism", or am I just the rehabilitation counselor with his "head in the sand" and missing out on all the fun?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 02:11 | 3435392 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Hunter S Thompson knew something. Same as it ever was.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:31 | 3434505 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Another good time to buy PM's on the dips.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:48 | 3434566 The Second Rule
The Second Rule's picture

I hear DPRK silver coins are going for $86/oz. Novelty value?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:04 | 3434853 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Thats because soros partner bought lots of them..

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:08 | 3434642 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Vampire Squid said they were shorting gold today. That's all you need to know.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:42 | 3434778 bonin006
bonin006's picture

They said to sell, but did they actually say they were selling?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:33 | 3434514 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

All true, but one also need to dig underground, to say couple of hundred feet only, to see how the books are being "cooked" - specially in the bank footnotes! It is THIS that the FED is concerned about, including on its own "balance" sheet. What you can't see and deny the existence of, can't hurt you. Can it?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:36 | 3434520 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Never in a million years will they let you see OR admit to ......its sealed by their law....the law of the beast.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:37 | 3434526 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

OT: Atlanta hostage standoff news you probably won't see nationally. Shit happens when cable TV is cut off...


"According to property tax records, the home where the firefighters were held hostage was foreclosed on November 2012.  After the house was foreclosed on, the mortgage switched hands from Wells Fargo to Fannie Mae.

Authorities confirmed that the gunman made demands, during his initial contact with dispatch, that service be restored to his utilities which included cable and phone. "


Thu, 04/11/2013 - 11:09 | 3436394 aerojet
aerojet's picture

The problem with these people is that they don't see the bigger picture--one guy pissed off about his foreclosure and cut off of utilities and cable takes hostages and gets shot and killed for it.  Ten thousand guys like that?  That's an army that can deal out some serious damage to the crooks in charge.  Why aren't Americans any good at banding together?  What is it about our current cultural anomie that prevents us from doing what our ancestors did in order to survive?  Imagine the cops showing up and being outnumbered and having to retreat.  That's the only way the little guy in America wins this, not by going down one by one and being terorrized by stricter gun control laws and eventually secret police abductions. 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:41 | 3434539 maskone909
maskone909's picture


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:51 | 3434573 kridkrid
Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:53 | 3434591 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Just had to one-up-me eh???
Haha thx 4 da link

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:56 | 3434596 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

why would anyone use gold and silver as money right now? I'd rather save as much as I could and transact in fiat until it all fell apart. Then go from there. No?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:03 | 3434623 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

For sure.  I would like to think that the legislation is simply Arizona preparing for life after the dollar.  They are creating a framework for a hopefully smoother transition.  But when push comes to shove, I don't think the feds will let Arizona "take their ball and go home". 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:18 | 3434679 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

I'm still tring to figure out my most recent Bitcoin statement, it reads...




I'm confused.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:02 | 3434851 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

It translates to...buyer beware

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:18 | 3434912 King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

It doesn't kick in until 2014 anyway.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:55 | 3434592 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

My always skeptical eye turns to this and thinks - what better way to confiscate than have people spend it willingly at these prices....
And do the people get gold & silver or fiat back for any change?

Don't get me wrong - I think it's positive - but maybe too early or has another motive at this time.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:59 | 3434616 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Psychologically this is progress through leaps and bounds.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:59 | 3434839 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Spending gold when fiat is available is against the law!




Greshams Law

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 11:10 | 3436406 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Call me when I can get paid directly in gold or silver and use it to buy shit directly, too.  Then the Fed will be on the run.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:42 | 3434547 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Madoff investors can't sue SEC -U.S. appeals court

So the crooks cover their tracks and asses once again...
One day they wont be able to dodge flying lead..

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:44 | 3434553 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Scary.  The U.S. keeps plunging into bubble collapses but with larger and larger debt levels each time.


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:52 | 3434589 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

That's how a Ponzi scheme works.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:44 | 3434555 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

these fuckers have pushed the envelope too far and they know it. A 20% pullback and a massive amount of people take their ball and go home. Good luck to CNBC trying to explain it after all their cheerleading. Can they manage a 10% pullback and not lose control of the aircraft? That's the question.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:54 | 3434593 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     CNBS will beat the shit out of the dead horse, until it's pulverized, just like with AAPL. Then they will look for the next piece of shit to sell on their 24 hour infomercial.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:58 | 3434605 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

which anchor will be the first to eat a horsemeat sandwich on air during their "chained CPI is good segment"?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:01 | 3434620 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     That dildo Pisonme gets my vote.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:07 | 3434634 ekm
ekm's picture


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:08 | 3434635 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'd go with the big dumb animal Sullivan

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:29 | 3434948 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Hope it's Maria Fartaroma.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:12 | 3434653 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Crap, Nothing But Crap makes Bernays' book, Propaganda look like the sunday funnies

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:27 | 3434944 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

>>>Then they will look for the next piece of shit to sell on their 24 hour infomercial.

Never better said!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:13 | 3434658 bearish1
bearish1's picture

Pasani: "We're off the lows, bitchez!!"

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:29 | 3434722 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

At the end of the day...we are drunk off our asses on Bernanke's Brew.

In the morning?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:33 | 3434716 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Respectfully, I'm not so sure they know anything.  I have thought all along that their goal is actually to create the mother of all bubbles.  That way they can get higher tax revenues a la Clinton, clean up the underwater books of the banks, reinflate home prices, reduce pension funding shortfalls and create the appearance of prosperity, telling us all along that the stock markets action MUST be saying the the economy is going to get better to boot.  Bernanke seriously thinks that 2008 was the crisis, not all the years leading up to it with all the capital misallocation and speculation prior to the collapse.

4 long years of this crap and it doesn't appear anywhere near over.  Having watched Lehman, don't assume that these guys have any clue.  Fuld still thinks his lack of risk management wasn't the problem, rather it was the fact that the government screwed him.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 11:13 | 3436422 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I understand the maneuver, but with wages stagnant, it doesn't really do any good. 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:48 | 3434565 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Bernanke has got to be wishing the stock market was not rising as quickly as it is - before long I predict even the true believers (who are thus far accurate, but still fools who think they can time their exit, or that there is no "down") will be nervously eyeing the exits.

It's actually sort of embarrassing, isn't it?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:50 | 3434569 The Second Rule
The Second Rule's picture

The've run out of things to bubble. The next crash will be the last. And then we reset the whole system.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:09 | 3434644 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

No, they havent. Pms, then its repeat all the past bubbles..sheep are very forgiving and memory is DWS intervaled

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 11:16 | 3436450 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I don't think they have anywhere left to go.  Already, low-wage workers don't bother to work anymore.  What happens when typical middle-class, white collar types have to realize that expenses have outrun their income and also stop going to work?  Add a zero on the back of everything you need to live, but don't add it to your salary and see what you end up with.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:53 | 3434590 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It is kind of embarrasing, It's like Bernanke pissed his pants and everyone is half staring and trying not to notice. Then, out of sympathy his Japanese friend violently craps his pants. Bernanke immediately points and says "look at that fuckin guy!".

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:56 | 3434598 The Second Rule
The Second Rule's picture


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:33 | 3434959 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Knee slappin guffaw.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:12 | 3434652 PC Load Letter
PC Load Letter's picture

Speaking of exits, I'm sure he can't wait to GTFO before this market rolls over

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:18 | 3434666 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I wonder about that a lot. If I had to pick a black swan, a real one. I'd say we wake up one morning and Berbabke resigns because of some health issue. They would throw Yellen or some crazy ass dove in there but I think all bets would be off from there.

edit - I spelled bernanke wrong but I am on my 4th beer and it just looks funny now.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:50 | 3434570 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I just cant make sense of it, its clearly an equities bubble (tech bubble exploded), Financials were not really in a bubble before they popped, but now they clearly are in a bubble (they didn't re-inflate the bubble because it never popped it was just a scare before) now that they "inflated" the stocks its actually a bubble that will pop.


IMO Gold and Silver kinda go through this climb, stop move side-ways/pullback test support and then start climbing again, as central banks de-value gold/silver by shorting the market to keep the price down, they decrease the incentive to produce said metals, and manufacturing of said metals goes down (creating shortages, especially in silver which is why the price is so volotile).

Clearly we are in a bit of a silver shortage (slow-down in eagles production etc...) or at the begining of a silver shortage, price will climb again soon IMO but it may move down farther before that happwns (I want it to go down to like 18$/oz) even though I doubt getting that low is possible at this point (everything would be instantly bought up) and the banks would find themselves paying for a very expensive short squeeze.


IDK its interesting 


It wont end until the "dollar bubble" pops and the dollar starts lossing value VERY QUICKLY.

What will pop first? Equities or Currency?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:18 | 3434687 AllThatGlitters
AllThatGlitters's picture

So what you are saying is that silver is gonna go up soon, but it might go down soon, first?  Right? If so, I agree 100%.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:55 | 3436288 Thisson
Thisson's picture

As if we could take someone seriously when they claim there's a shortage of silver, anyway. 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:51 | 3434578 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Yo what up? Where da parta tonight?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:10 | 3434648 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:51 | 3434581 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

This is so beyond fucked up.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:54 | 3434588 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

swirly chart makes me dizzy.

especially since the thing goes up when it might actually be compelled to go down

dizzy now, off to dizzy-land.

- Ned

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:56 | 3434597 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

But if everyone losses their shirt in an epic market collapse isn't that deflationary?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:22 | 3434921 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Quite a few of us are in the camp that there will be a quick (hyper?)deflationary period whicj will lead to the mother of all printfests which finally destroys the currency.


If I was on my desktop instead of my phone I would post a link to a previous ZH article.  You can use the search to look it up.  Search "treasury curve 1990 to 2010 full glory redux"

It is such a great article I remember the title becasuse ive read it so many times.


Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:55 | 3436296 Thisson
Thisson's picture

This is deflation we're talking about - it's going to be slow and painful, not quick.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:14 | 3434599 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Stay in college. Go to night school.
Gonna be different this time.
Write a letter. Send a postcard.
You can write anything at all.
This is a party. This is a disco.
This is merely fooling around.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:23 | 3434672 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

That's what you get for pretending the danger's not real

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 23:39 | 3435177 floydian slip
floydian slip's picture

Meek and obedient you follow the leader
Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel.


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:55 | 3434601 venturen
venturen's picture

So old fashion....we can just print our way of problems. Wall Street loans the world into a hole...we just print more money for them!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:14 | 3434617 Khali_Hath
Khali_Hath's picture

US and World Market just discovered another " SIX REASONS" to break all the " RED LIGHTS " and find a new high with RSI of 100.

Above charts are good enough to push market further up but these charts are already playing their due role.

XLV - Health Care RSI 78
XLU - Utilities  RSI 80
XLP - Consumer Staples  71
..................................................and Rising............every day since November. With little correction, number becomes neutral and rally move ahead with further force. Weired...........


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:17 | 3434676 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Pretty soon RSI>100 and explodes to infinity. Welcome to Bennie's world.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:52 | 3434706 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

What a surprise!




A look of terminal shock in their eyes!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 23:41 | 3435181 floydian slip
floydian slip's picture

Now things are really what they seem?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:12 | 3434650 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

Must destroy...purchasing power!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:13 | 3434656 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Bus stop ratbag!



haha charade you are!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:13 | 3434663 matinee55
matinee55's picture


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:14 | 3434665 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

China may let local governments take larger VAT share at 45% up from 25%

- This trial tax replaces the business tax for some industries

Of course once the rest of the world sees what govt, permit, no, cause, without terminal recourse, then everybody jumps into the pool..

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:15 | 3434668 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Those red lines falling off remind me when I used to fly (and airplane) and go into a stall after lifting my nose up too high....scary as hell, esp when you go into a spin+stall......Holy Moly !!!!!!!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:16 | 3434675 sbenard
sbenard's picture

But it just HAS to be different this time! We have PRINTED prosperity now!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:48 | 3434751 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

The Gutenberg Recovery.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:18 | 3434677 surf0766
surf0766's picture

He got legit game.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:24 | 3434705 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

But this is fundamental analysis. Too complicated. There is only one question: is the CB of the currency in which your equity market is priced printing? If yes, buy.

Jest sayin'

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:35 | 3434743 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

can someone explain to me how the futures are always flat this time of night and dont move at all until early am?


we are so overbought, yet futures are flat, not red.


check this b.s article out by cnbc


ya, like the jobless claims matter. no matter what happens, it will be interpreted as positive and the market will skyrocket because its all fed money and no real money. stop making it seem like whatever happens in the economy actually makes a difference.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:45 | 3434787 Hohum
Hohum's picture

What is real money?  Wait, I know the answer: gold.

Wouldn't the gold standard create a massive deflation?  Which could be good, depending who you are. That is, if you have gold.  But since most don't, wouldn't that mean widespread misery?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:58 | 3434832 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Mere misery for banksters if they are really lucky.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:35 | 3434750 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I thought Japan was the writing on the wall this week... ripples

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:41 | 3434772 Hohum
Hohum's picture

If it were September 2008 and the Fed enacted QE one week before the Lehman collapse, would stocks have ever fallen?  If not, then why can't this charade continue until there is some exogenous constraint to bring it down?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 00:30 | 3435270 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Well, I think you're right - the charade wii continue fo a while.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:42 | 3434773 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Create fiat, sell fiat, loan fiat X 20, buy fiat. Loop.

There is no macro, only endless loops.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:46 | 3434788 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

meek and obedient......

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:47 | 3434796 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

I wallow in the fact that I am the most succesful that any American is likely to be.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:49 | 3434800 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture


Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:58 | 3434830 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

It's kinda sad what I say




Old Times  going away




Goodbye USA




Wed, 04/10/2013 - 23:42 | 3435190 floydian slip
floydian slip's picture

Did you ever wonder why we had to run for shelter when the
promise of a brave new world unfurled beneath a clear blue

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 00:25 | 3435265 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

One good chart would have been better.  I still say John. Mauldins chart of earnings was the best analysis I've seen yet.  Reversion of corporate profits to the mean.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 05:20 | 3435506 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

I suppose the logic is that it does not matter. The FED, or Mr. Bernanke at least, clearly sees the disconnect. And they know that by continuing on such a course, reversion to the mean is the only outcome. The stock market is going to be crushed, yet again.

The higher it goes now, perhaps the higher the base later.

AND, the banks are sitting on such a pile of reserves that they should be able to weather the next crash without imploding. And all the little doggies running the banks are happy again flush with bonus money. They have FAITH in the system!

That's it in a nutshell. As far as creating jobs, fixing structural issues, de-financializing the economy, and making sure that Weimar does not show up hat in hand, hah, good luck with that.

Dual mandate my a-s.

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