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FOMC Minutes Released Early, Several FOMC Members Saw QE Tapering, Halt By Year End
Highlights from the pre-leaked minutes, which are along the lines of previous releases, in which there is a hint of an early QE tapering and halt by year end. Here is the key excerpt:
In light of the current review of benefits and costs, one member judged that the pace of purchases should ideally be slowed immediately. A few members felt that the risks and costs of purchases, along with the improved outlook since last fall, would likely make a reduction in the pace of purchases appropriate around midyear, with purchases ending later this year. Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end. Two members indicated that purchases might well continue at the current pace at least through the end of the year.
Algos unsure if this means QE may be ending. The answer, of course, is no. But the Fed is doing everything to gauge market impact to increasingly more ominous and harsh language.
Pre: 10Y 1.779%, EUR 1.3070, ES 1565.5, Oil $93.69. Gold 1578
Some other highlights:
On Fed credibility: "Some participants were concerned that a substantial decline in remittances might lead to an adverse public reaction or potentially undermine Federal Reserve credibility or effectiveness."
On inflation: "...a few participants noted that the risk remained that inflationary pressures could rise as the expansion continued, especially if monetary policy remained highly accommodative for too long."
On QE: "...Asset purchases were seen by some as having a potential to contribute to imbalances in financial markets and asset prices, which could undermine financial stability over time."
On QE Tapering: "Many participants, including some of those who were focused on the increasing risks, expressed the view that continued solid improvement in the outlook for the labor market could prompt the Committee to slow the pace of purchases beginning at some point over the next several meetings," ... "Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end."
Esther L. George. dissent: "the current stance of policy could lead to financial imbalances, a mispricing of risk, and, over time, higher longterm inflation expectations... asset purchases were providing relatively small benefits, and, given the risks that they posed as well as the improvement in the outlook for the labor market, she thought they should be wound down.
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Zero chance of them ending QE. Zero.
Apparently leaked to Goldman too. Sell gold they said......
hoping to talk down gold and silver ramp, Fed minutes released early.
It is too late to stop the QE, since too much has been printed so far...
If the asset purchases stop, then the country is going to need to make up about $120 Billion per month in new debt issuance.
I sure hope 'they' don't decide a war is the way to do that, even though history suggests that is what comes next.
You know I can't tell who's worse -- the bernank -or- Kim Jung Un
Robert Mugabe?
Just the most obvious head fake... ever.
The Bernank is worse. Kim can only kill people of this generation. Ben can kill this and future generations.
.
Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated,
i anticipate they will improve labor conditions on paper, while reality will be quite a different story
I'm just grateful they are giving us some more time to trade toilet paper currency for real money.
But... Paul Krugman wants more! And unemployment is not at its target levels. These minutes are a lie.
I threw up hardcore this morning, and I'll tell you why. Yesterday i walked into the bank looking for some info about the QE and where that money ends up, clerk looked at me and smiled, and told me that we have some free sample data in the back room. I followed him in, and he led me through poorly-lit hallways and into a room with a table that looked like a medieval torture device, attached to it were several bottles of coins and paper.
But as I looked at them, he suddenly grabbed me and threw me on the table, where it immediately had some sort of locking device that kept me on the table with my ass in the air and mouth locked open. I felt my pants being pulled off and soon felt a cock slide into my ass. At first it was painful but after a few minutes I had 'opened up' so to speak. Now here’s where it gets weird, he pressed a button on the wall and the table began to vibrate slightly...in the mirror in front of me i could see the dollar banknotes and some coins being mixed into a single batter by the machine, and after a few minutes a scooper came down and poured the batter into my ass. He went around and began pounding me again, ramming the batter deeper into my ass. Eventually he came and i tried to fart or shit out the batter. After a few minutes, the money mixture got to me and i began to feel dizzy, everything was spinning around me and the last thing i remember was my baby saying 'hope you liked your free samples'.
I woke up this morning on my kitchen floor, barely able to walk and surrounded by t-bills. I checked my portfolio and it was up 10%. I guess QE really does work, but at what cost?
"We've got a doctor for that!"
Billboard for a local medical complex.
The mere ability to even conjure such thoughts up on the fly, let alone articulate them within such a forum, speaks of a sick, perverse mind.
I suppose you work on Wall Street, huh?
C'mon, ZH has some of the best commenters on the Web. That was hilarious!
A_Dog -- Vivid, cogent prose: As good as it gets anywhere on the web. (I'm still feeling it.)
Keep it up.
.
And yet futures markets look remarkably like the hill I used to sled on...
What utter gibberish.....they will taper QE.
Suck my cock Bernanke, when this ship goes down, I wonder what rock will you be hiding under, you MOTHERLESS COCKSUCKER.
It doesn't say they will taper QE. It says they will "taper QE through asset purchases". It's about the method.
@AndrewJackson
What's more important to the Fed: its balance sheet or the stock market? They will have to taper QE if they lose control of interest rates. That day will come.
...on a long enough timeline....
They will have to taper QE if they lose control of interest rates. That day will come.
What is the only thing keeping interest rates low in the first place? How will pulling away QE rectify "losing control of interest rates"? Take away the buyer of last resort and prices go DOWN and yields go UP.
Huh? I thought the Fed was shaping the entire yield curve. What are the real rates without the Fed in the market? Are they sustainable?
Yes but they had to show that contrary to the reality of the recent economic numbers missing, they actually think the economy is improving enough to consider stopping QE. Who are you going to trust, "reality" or the almighty FED?
Yup. Zero chance of them ending QE. Uncle Sam needs Ben to keep printing up the spending $$$.
Isn't it an amazing coincidence that $85 billion per month is, give or take, is just what Uncle Sam is short after tax collections? 85 x 12 = $1 trillion per year = Perpetual US budget deficit. Just a lucky coincidence I guess...
so what you are saying is, that if they printed 185 billion a month we would have a surplus?
Yup. Just like a cash advance on your credit card is a pay raise. Especially if you never pay it back.
Oh, it will end - but not how they want.
Fed credibility, bwahahahaha!
And now the decline in the market during yesterday's last hour has its proper context. Unfortunately, the context includes that The Fed gives certain information to select people before it gives it to the people whose currency The Fed is doing everything in its power to destroy.
Nice banking system.
All the arm flapping about yesterdays 'market decline'...WTF everything still ended UP a solid .5%!
Agreed, I think the leak was actually responsible for the curious lunchtime ramp, and the selloff was simply because we'd hit their upper pivot target, and they didn't want to go too far into new highs until perhaps today.
If we stop QE....how do we pay the bills?
I know this one...Blood.
You can't....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2306688/Obama-2014-budget-analysis-Numbers-based-imagined-spending-cuts-middle-class-tax-hike.html
So I think it's safe to say.....we can just call BS right here.
What bills? Just void all t-bills and there is no debt.
AMERICAN'S FINEST WILL JUST WORK THEIR WAY OUT!!
http://foodcourtlunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/fat-guy-workout.jpg
Huh? Released early?
Yeah, like this was the first time the person responsible has ever hit the send key.
Ben Shalom got a little too excited....it happens.
The US Gov can NOT afford to have rates go up even 25 basis points.
only took us 5 years to catchup to japan
Nothing but jawboning. If that's all they got, they better switch to plan B....if only there were one.
Jawboning the market to generate some volume for the pigs on wall street is all. Everyone knows it is qe infinity 4 evah.
The only possible reason for switching off the respirator [if only for a few seconds], is if & when they decide they want to do a consolidation & bulldoze a few banks they don't like that aren't as high on the totem pole...
Para-military test balloon. Nothing more.
Yes but when they pretend like this for the algos, media and momos they can make the people that know QE forever is the actual policy seem like they are clueless, inaccurate, out of the loop, not an insider, off base, tinfoil hatters, etc.
They want to discredit the Austrian econs and common sense hedgies and analysts.
They didn't want that published when the NYSE was open?
<--- That was my thought
<--- That's conspriracy talk
Translation: QE18 coming in 5...4...3...2...
~~~
Reason: Nobody could have POSSIBLY seen this coming
The fatal fiat fuse has been lit. There is no turning back now. Thus all that's left in the Fed 'tool box' is managing what little credibility they have left.
<Self destruct sequence has commenced. Self destruct in QE3......QE4......QE5.....>
Wait just a durn minute CD, thats a countup !!! This sheet can't go on foreva...
Silly Hulk. I've been down so long it looks like up to me. :)
WOW ! These boots are made for walking may be more applicable at this time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbyAZQ45uww
Nice video, great legs !!!
I'd like to see Japan try to turn back. Hahahahahahaha!!!!
Either QE or Oil Shock like in the 70s.
There is no other option. Pick one.
Ekm there is a shock coming. Not sure what it is. But it will cause the fed to up QE. They may slow it down for a month or two so it seemed like they were on the right path, but the big freakin thing that happened caused it to ramp it back up.
The fed does not care about the economy at all. The fed does not care about the economy ekm. with the highest respect to you, I believe you are missing that point. It is all about propping up housing through low interest rates so the banks stay solvent.
Housing cannot be propped up without cheap oil.
They will let it collapse, clean up a couple of players, drop crude oil price and then, only then, start over again.
This is not a matter of respect, we are simply debating and it's quite enjoyable.
Housing has been propped up for 5 years now based on low interest rates, cheap money and foreclosure stuffing.
They may be able to stop QE if Japan completely implodes and tons of money comes flying into US treasuries. That may buy them some time. But I doubt that happens.
Housing PRICES have been propped up due to HIDDEN INVENTORY of foreclosed homes, and not at all due to low interest rates/demand.
You speak too much in absolutes. To say not at all is false. I won't spread my argument across the whole country. But in the Northeast, especially by me...over the last 5 years, homes sales have moved along pretty well. Many of the sales were distressed sales, but the buyers were absolutely influenced by 3.5% mortgages. Many people were able to refi as well.
It won't last. It's not real. ZIRP is killing the middle class. But the middle class and the economy was never the fed's concern. Never.
Correct. I speak in absolutes for all USA. Not interested on pockets here and there.
fair enough
Oil shock already underway. Just wait for it to arrive at a neighbourhood near you.
It's a decision that is legally 100% on the White House.
George Bush crashed the oil price in 2008 because the economy literally was at the last gasps.
From 2010
"The Federal Reserve took its most notable step so far toward unwinding some of the extraordinary measures it took to prop up the economy during the financial crisis.
The central bank Thursday raised the interest rate that banks pay to borrow money during emergencies.
The hike in the so-called discount rate to 0.75% from 0.5% was widely expected and does not foreshadow an immediate rise in consumer loan rates.
Though it has ended some emergency lending already, the Fed is stepping gingerly for fear of spooking investors and thwarting the fledgling rebound in the housing market and the overall economy.
Nevertheless, the hike in the discount rate is highly symbolic and a clear indication that the federal government is anxious to withdraw some of the stimulus efforts it rolled out during the recession.
If the economic recovery continues to gain steam, the Fed is expected later this year to begin raising the broader federal funds rate, which directly affects the rates that consumers pay for mortgages and other types of borrowing."
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/18/business/la-fi-fed-rate-hike19-2010feb19
Do you recall that I was thinking they'd stop QE in march?
The economy is slowly dying due to a slow motion oil shock.
please see my reply above. The economy is not dying ekm. It is dead. It has been dead for a long time. This is the "weekend at Bernies" economy now.
To be exact, this is like "Weekend at Bernie's II", where he is dead right from the start.
I wonder how long it will take to get in the collective conscience that we have a lack of cheap energy problem.
Precisely
A few measly years at best.
Exactly. They can never unwind this now, otherwise treasuries go fucking bidless. Bring it!!!
Kyle Bass said it yesterday. ZIRP forever. That's the bid under housing. No way they let rates get out of hand, and certainly no way they light the fuse.
They must know Japan is about to buy a massive amount of treasuries. Although that would imply some type of inside info, and I don't subscribe to that tin foil hat kind of stuff.
Go ahead, end that open bid on treasuries, I double dog dare you!!! Fuck you Bernanke!!!!
You're full of beans and so's your old man!
Your gonna put an eye out, all Daisy rider BB guns to be outlawed in 3...2...1...
SONS O'BITCHES! BUMPUSSES!!!
"End by year end" the QE purchases 2014 ? Never gonna happen. Can't. Congress NEEDS their training wheels and undeterred spending! By Congress, I mean special lobbying interests. Farm Bill, fTBTFs and illnesscare.
Fed's 100 year charter needs renewing. They won't end anything till its renewed.
Even mentioning word "taper" could crash the market. Really doing it is unthinkable.
Yes, "Taper" for the very same reason turds are tapered, so you asshole don't slam shut.
Can we please go back to the days when anyone trading the obvious (stupid utterance from some gov't source) got burned?
Algos may be able to read but they sure have a short memory.
The Big Bad Bernankenstein's Monster said:
MOAR QE UNTIL MORAL IMPROVES!
(improved employment that is)
Ben,
Can you an Paul Krugman do us all a favor with a synchronised jump off your Ivy League tower?
Introducing the 97-Month Car Loan
Last month Nakisha Bishop took out a loan to buy a $23,000 Toyota Camry and pay off several thousand dollars still owed on her old car. The key to making it work: she got more than six years—75 months in all—to pay it off.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/introducing-97-month-car-loan-010500170.html
Green shoots...I'm waiting for the 100 year, zero interest, zero down mortgage.
I read the article yesterday and laughed when I got to the part where it was stated that people who take out long car loans generally have good credit scores. What is considered "good" credit today would have caused you to be kicked out of the loan officer's cubicle 10 years ago.
Slipping and sliding our way down the road to perdition.
Qe ending...that's a good one. QE will never end. Next thing you knw the fed will be pulling a stunt like Japan and go for broke...2 trillion a year.
Well, if and when QE does end, they certainly won't announce it that's for sure!
No sweat Doc, they can get there from here.
.
.........THANK YOU FOR THE FOLLOWING BEN.
Tyler,fellas,I'm not sure what to make of this other than screw the technicals and charts the depression has shown up outside my own doorstep....WTF!!!
Today wednesday being garbage collection day in our neighbourhood something strange occured in the early hours early this morning as i left for a scheduled appointment with some accountants which i was already late for.
What you may ask?I'll tell ya what.I had just picked the car keys up and while closing the window saw an elderly lady pushing an EMPTY pram on the sidewalk who then began going through our garbage bin.I continued to watch her from the bedroom window as she went through not just our bin but that of every other neighbour.I just regret that i should have approached her and asked her who she was but i was in a rush.
Whats unusual, whoever this elderely woman is i assure you she's definately not from around these parts and the closest town is good few kilometers away.Thing is,our area is pretty affluent,with reasonably high concentration of individuals in high professions i.e. lawyers,small company directors,business managers ,consultants,etc and the only retirees are a smartly dressed elderly couple who walk their dog every morning besides everyone in our neck of the woods knows each other pretty well since its a small close knit community so there's no way in hell shes from around here.
Damn, poor little ol' lady must have been that desparate to come on foot in the dark easily taking over an hour to get to our to town.
Sill question is.....Why and where the hell did this lil' ol lady come from i wonder?. I certainly will be askin' all the town folks when i get back home from work if they have ever seen her before.This is seriously gonna bug me all day.
The only thing funny i found about the whole sorry situation is that the garbage was already in back of the dumpster for she got into our neighbourhood so frontrunning the garbage men clearly failed.
I'm guessing many of you live in posh neighbourhoods so if and when ya see the above happen around where you live clearly we're fucked.
SARC'/OFF
Shit we have people pushing baby strollers all over town collecting garbage around here. Damn strangest thing I've seen. Men , women it doesn't matter pushing strollers all loaded up with shit from the dumpsters.
Hey Doc', here in San Antonio its a rare sight if i ever saw one let me tell ya.
I was buying beer last week and a seriously hot chick pulles up in a Range Rover and emptied about a billion cans out and brought them inside. I was impressed.
Are you certain she wasn't an IRS agent looking for signs that all you affluent people haven't been declaring all your income?
O RLY! Only 8 more months of QE shopping? I don't believe it....some kind of snap-back ploy going on here, no way do I believe the FOMC announced end of QE I'll eat my straw hat if that's real.
Sheep you said you would upload a video of yourself eating your straw hat if they did QE3....
Send Ben some cozy warm wool socks, he has cold feet.
The March jobs report was half of the lowest estimates so I don’t think QE will be ending any time soon.
So they see increased risks in continuing QE.
What about the risks they have already injected into the system via QE? Are they going to address that as well?
Pay attention to what they do not what they say!
Agree. Fed Credibility? Fing criminals screwing savers around the world! Ben B, F YOU!
"Make us stop writing bad checks." - FMOC minutes
So the Dow bounces down 30 points and then goes straight up again...
Meanwhile BoJ's Kuroda says they have "Done what is necessary and possible for now". So the Dow stays up.
Nothing to do with keeping the market up for today's US budget announcement?
DavidC
Because, the last thing they can allow is for this whole market manipulation exercise to get out of hand.
The Fed needs to start watching Futurama to find out the things that make Bender panic.
So who buys if the Fed doesn't? Not Japan - they'll be busy buying up their own - same for Europe. Not BRICS - they don't want them. Canada?
'Hmmm...we see QE risks here'....GEE do ya think??
man fuck the Fed....
anyway, take a look a once again at what always happens when the only 2 forms of real money open in fucking Thatcher Land....
http://www.silverseek.com/
purlely coincidental of course - day after fucking day that is........
Is BitCoins a beta-test for a one world global digital currency?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlJEX04wG_0
the US market has become laughing stock
"continued strong improvement in the labour market".
Who needs laughing gas with such great humour?
They released them early so the robots could be programmed for harsher language....that and so a few insiders could turn a quick buck.
Don't run down the stairs with sissors.
So where's ObaMao going to get his $3.77 TRILLION budget from, taxing day laborers and dumpster divers?
I'll still bet some algo dork forgets to turn off his 2:10 p.m. "chicanery" program, and we see a few odd candles for about 1/2 hour today.
If the Fed ended QE: Interest rates would go to 4% then 7% and then 11%. The stock market would plunge. Unemployment would jump to 30%. The Dow would drop 70%. The government would be unable to fund its operations. It would then seize all the IRAs and pension funds. Taxes would skyrocket. There would be runs on the banks and riots.
Like hell the Fed would end QE.
you forgot the big kahuna: interest rate derivative melt down
Bernanke, sitting in his office, mulling over your comment: "Hm, sounds like a plan."
With so many countries around the world ditching the USD for inter-nation trade, the external demand for UST is shrinking rapidly. ZH readers know that. Therefore, the only way the Fed can end QEx requires the US Government to balance its budget. That won't happen until after TEOTWAWKI, whatever that will be.
The FED along with Goldman must think Americans are really stupid. And they're right !!!
Maybe Benzoid and Obongo are having a show down, which one blinks\?
"Several FOMC Members Saw QE Tapering, Halt By Year End"
... these guys are really clueless aren't they?
FOMC should be changed to FOSM. These people are pure propagandists and liars. The economies of the west are dead and disintegrating: the collapsing energy consumption and job participation rates tell you everything you need to know. These people have no end game, no solution and no way out. They are conmen doing what conmen do best when their backs are to the wall: talk the good talk, dazzle them with bullshit, buy some time while planning an escape. Escape to what you ask? Gold. It has always been this way since time and memorial. Gold is money. Everything else is credit, a derivative. These lying insiders are buying physical gold while talking gold down to you the sheeple. They are liars like their father was a liar. Watch the COMEX gold inventories: they are dropping like never before. The big money is taking their gold out now. They know that a monetary/fiscal storm is coming. These puppet whores in DC and on Wall Street might buy a year or two by raiding private pensions and retirement accounts - and raid them they will; but after that, the system is looted, the people are sucked dry and there is nothing left to rob and steal. Then they pull the plug on the dollar and the whole corrupt social welfare system lie. If you aren't converting all of you surplus paper wealth into physical gold (and silver), then you are slated for economic extinction and therefore, outright extinction.
The only thing in that report that's close to being true is the last page.
MARKET SOARS! FED CREDIBILITY ZERO!
It never ceases to amaze me that they can just say whatever they want and 'the market' takes it at face value. It also amazes me that there's a persistent willingness to believe that the FED's buying treasuries to 'stimulate the economy' and not 'to preserve the illusion of government solvency in the absence of other buyers and despite mountains of evidence to the contrary'.
When Bernanke announced QE3 two weeks before the Presidential election, we knew the purpose of it. At this point, QE has nothing to do with banks or supporting the economy and everything to do with keep Obama's wild spending on track.
Downton Abby Fed Show. It's so far from reality it's hard to listen to anymore. Go ahead, shut off QE. Let's get this crash going, a 3mph train wreck is far worse.
Average age of auto on the road in US? 11 years.
10 year car loans can't be far away.
How about Bank owned (or Fannie/Freddie) Rent to own homes. 500 down at say 7%, 50 year mortagage and the transfer all those pesky liabilities to the purchaser. Bank balance sheets improve. Eveybody is happy. Problem solved.
The only person who gets screwed is the traditional homeowner trying to sell their property in a traditional manner.
We can live with that...Right?
That isn't all that far fetched. The Japanese had 100 year, multi-generational mortgages after all... for small apartments at the equivalent of $1 million +. Of course that was at the height of their bubble. But then again we're frantically trying to keep the bubble from deflating.
After reading the small excert I'm amazed, because it seems these people are starting to believe their own BS, their own phoney statistics.
Unless, of course, these minutes are phoney and their real thoughts are just the opposite. They must think we're such idiots!
The best way to interpret the leaked minutes? Ignore them. Just watch what they do.
The net result of continuous Fed purchases of UST's will be more and more transfer of wealth and power to the Federal government as money becomes less valuable. Gee, fits right in with the political power spectrum we have now.
Trial baloon indeed.
"if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated,"
and if our kids win the lottery, we can spend that money we've been saving for their college education...
(Please delete this duplicate. Thanks.)
Bullshit, I will bet my life on it!
A few members felt that the risks and costs of purchases, along with the improved outlook since last fall,
What the fuck is this all about, what kind of a goverment allows these lies?
reply from the FED:
Thank you for your recent correspondence to the Federal Reserve Board regarding the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
The minutes of the March 19-20 were released at 9 a.m. on April 10--five hours earlier than scheduled. The reason is they were inadvertently sent early to a list of individuals who normally receive the minutes by e-mail shortly after their usual release time. The individuals on the distribution list--primarily congressional employees and employees of trade organizations--received the minutes shortly after 2 p.m. on April 9.
Again, we thank you for writing.
Sincerely,
JPD
Board Staff