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Housing 'Recovery' Shifts To Contraction

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite the market knowing better, the so-called housing recovery has hit a speed-bump (or brick-wall). Goldman's housing swirlogram shows that the revisions from an exuberant few months into January 2013 have dragged the reality of the 'recovery' rotating into full-blown 'expansion' to a crumble back into 'contraction'. Of course, we have seen homebuilder stocks exuberant like this before in the face of disappointing facts, but even the NAHB (desperate to portray confidence) is 'admitting' things are not as rosy as all-time highs in stocks might suggest.

 

From hopeful January to 'revised' contractionary March...

 

We have seen this before...

 

Chart: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs

 


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Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Helmut Kohl: I ACTED LIKE A DICTATOR TO IMPOSE THE EURO.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/9981932/Helmut-...

Helmut Kohl, Germany's former chancellor, has admitted that he acted like a "dictator" to bring in the single currency to the country, otherwise he "would have lost" had he held a referendum.

"I knew that I could never win a referendum in Germany," he said. "We would have lost a referendum on the introduction of the euro. That's quite clear. I would have lost and by seven to three."

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Thereby he broke the "Grundgesetz", germanys surrogate of a constitution, which in it's preamble clearly required exactly that, regarding the reunion. Since the Euro was introduced much later, he already had been in fact a dictator for quite a time. So he rinsed and repeated ...

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:38 | Link to Comment The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

And the Fed anticipates ending QE?!  Hahahah

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:45 | Link to Comment Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

"Now is a good time to buy?"

NAR

I guess the green shoots are turning brown before spring even gets in full swing

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

this must be the housing market from down under.....the flush is going counterclock wise....i think...hard to tell from the stench of the contents..my eyes are burning

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 19:00 | Link to Comment asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

Brown sharts! Hey, Everybody! I can see brown sharts on the horiz-... Ughh. Nevermind

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Number 156
Number 156's picture

"Helmut Kohl: I ACTED LIKE A DICTATOR TO IMPOSE THE EURO."

I suppose that means that the German political system hasn't changed very much since 1933.

 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 16:11 | Link to Comment slaughterer
Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

Helmut Kohn!

And Merkel is jewish, too: mother Herlind Jentzsch (from Poland).

Helmut Schmidt (also a former chancellor) is of jewish descant, too.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Isn't that Jack Lew's signature?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Mercury_Shadow
Mercury_Shadow's picture

STOP!  You're killing me!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:47 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Cold coffee just flew out of my nose...thanks!!  (no scalding to report).

Heeeer's Jack.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment A_Dog
A_Dog's picture

On a cold Friday afternoon, I had come home from school. I had been thinking of the bitcoins all day. I was hungry, didn't have any lunch. In fact, I didn't eat because I spent the money. For the past month I was saving up for something. Something special which I bought via Zero Hedge bitcoin trading desk. I was surprised they didn't ask for ID; I was pretty sure the cashier noticed how nervous I was. Anyways, my mom asked my how my day was when I got home, but I ignored her. I have more important things to do. I run to the bathroom and unpack my bag. In my school bag is a white plastic bag from ZH. I open the bag, first removing the receipt and flushing it down the toilet to get rid of the evidence. My heart was racing now. I unpack the bitcoin monster from the bag.

 

I wonder what people will be asking me when they see that I am a millionaire. Should I say I was just work a lot? I remove the label from the tub and tear it into a thousand small pieces. I flush that down the toilet, too. It is time now. I run up to my room when my mom ask me what I am holding. I panic, sweat drips down my forehead and my teeth chatter. "Mom, it's just for a school project". "What project?" "I don't know mom I just started it!". A tear runs down my cheek. I run upstairs and calculate the bitcoins. What have I gotten myself into. There is no turning back now. The bitcoin monster is inside me now, it will control me. What should I do if I die? I cant let my family know about this.

 

I throw bitcoin bag out the window. I feel bitcoins taking control of me; I am now the monster. I walk downstairs, its time to check price; time to get rich. Now I worry, I don't want to get too rich; people will think I am from WallStreet. I am from WallStreet. No I am not. Bitcoins. All I see is the cash and babes now, I am almost downstairs when I hear "Do you want a cookie I just baked". I know I do not have time for this shit now. "No mom I do not want a cookie" I walk in the basement and drop to my knees before the computer screen, looking at the bitcoin chart, tears running down my cheeks. I turn to the right and look at myself in the mirror. Oh god, what have I done?

 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

Funny

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:32 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

You deserve a Hugo or a Nebula for that short story. But...wait, that ain't science fiction that you wrote.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

(with a calm and soothing voice:) Look into my eyes. Sit down. Hear my words. Take a deep breath ...

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

Just then...Dad walks down the to the basement steps.  With his checks red and puffed he shouts "What the hell is going on...you doin' drugs...hooked on porn?" Before I can get a word in he continues "You've never refused one of your Mothers cookie's your entire life."  It then hits me.  Shazam! "I can sell Mom's cookies and get paid in Bitcoins."   I jump up...kiss Dad on the check and run upstairs. 

As I get to to the top of the stairs I hear the old man yell "I thought you said last week that you decided not to be gay anymore. What the hell?" 

I am sure they thought I was nuts when I went springing out the front door yelling "Tiptoe through the Bitcoins...through the Bitcoins...! "  

To be continued.....

 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:41 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

The low rake of machine gun fire from the choppers nearly deafened me as I watched Dad's beautiful Bermuda lawn shred into Easter Grass.

i dropped to my knees blinded by the searchlights i rolled under Dad's Escalade. He just made his first payment, I thought as the choppers raked the glass windows sending diamond sparkly shards in every direction.

Who, I wondered, narced me out?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment A_Dog
A_Dog's picture

I was so happy I ran upstairs and started masturbating to to a video of a girl drinking piss, I came and then sat there continuing to watch the video for a few seconds. I was overcome with such a massive wave of post-masturbation regret and disgust that I immediately began throwing up. At this point I was covered in puke and cum, and I felt like throwing up more, so I got up and started running to the bathroom, but my underwear was still around my ankles so I tripped and fell on my face. I couldn't hold in my second wave of puke anymore, so I just stayed on the ground and threw up all over my carpet. Then my dog came in and started licking up my puke. I got pissed, yelled at him, and tried to push him away, but I just ended up getting my arm covered in puke. I was so upset I just rolled over on my back and started crying, and eventually passed out.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Hey Fonzanoon, housing recovery for you.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:29 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

There is no housing recovery. There is no recovery. The economy is dead. Now imagine what it would be if rates were higher.

OT Schiff on CNBC debating gold with CNBC retards.

FWIW Schiff is supporting the idea of what bitcoin represents. Good for him.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:41 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Keep the hedges.

The executive order could come at anytime at no notice.

20% drop in 5 days. 50% drop in 3 months.

Crude oil at $40.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Managed futures funds (CTAs) are going to make a killing.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 02:40 | Link to Comment e-recep
e-recep's picture

it's been 18 months already and the price is not coming down.

besides, what is the production cost of oil nowadays?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Lendo
Lendo's picture

Schiff is the man

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Thanks for the swirlogram.

I think I'm gonna' throw up now.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

The "housing recovery" has always been like the last 4 "summers of recovery"...

yet another Obama Admin pipedream pushed by their lapdog MSM.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Agreed, and now that there is no more 'robosigning' issue...the housing market should quintuple in a few years.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

how you buy house no job? bitcoin? foodstamps? squatters?

 Quintuple? to the moon alice.

NAR, Yun and alien Greenspan all concur with ur analysis. Housing never go down. All markets local, how could all markets drop together. No need to carry loans at resale value, use mark to market plus put thumb on scale.

these were the best of times, these were the worst of times. mostly the latter unless you occupy the top 1 percentile.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:27 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Does anyone think this is how Egypt got the pyramids?  Housing bubble burst and they decided that the government should just have the construction workers build pyramids instead of creating another housing bubble.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

It's a toroidal strucure now. Apple Campus 2.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

If so, it proves that China is regressing - from building walls to building ghost cities.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

now wait for car sales to hit the brick wall .. now what do we do Ben?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Ben: To the printer!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 16:09 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

180 month auto loan?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:38 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The 2009 graph looked a lot healthier.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:42 | Link to Comment RockRiver
RockRiver's picture

Must have the shiney....

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:42 | Link to Comment evernewecon
evernewecon's picture

 

 

 


Thoroughly Consistent 

 

http://www.banks.com/articles/foreclosure-starts-surge-32-states 

With The

Fed Buying Mortgage Equivalents

Not At Market Value And The Large

Banks Then Turning To The

Mortgage Release Program

(More Foreclosures--Ability To

Push For A Little Higher Price Even

Though The Bubble-Value Mistake

Not Ratio Reflected Has Been

Bought Out.)

And The Fed's Been Doing That In

What As A Result Of That Combined

With The $Trillions In Free Reserves

Looks To Me Like A Candidate

For History's Greatest Bond Bubble

--Self Created--Into Which It Will

Sell Its Own Assets.

That Makes The Banks

http://goo.gl/bgEUo

Notorious.

Wait.  He Wants You To Die For The Fed.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:42 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I LOVE SWIRLOGRAMS!!  They are my absolute favorites.  They're so "circle of life".  Who's with me?

Never did make it back into the "expansion" quadrant, did we? 

But just one minute here..... even back in 04, 05, 06 it never made it into "expansion".  HUH??  If those years didn't count as "expansion" what would???  And hold on.... it's measuring monthly change against the NAHB index???

I thought real swirlograms measure rate of change vs. acceleration in rate of changed (2nd derivative).

IT'S A FAKE!!  IT'S A FAKE SWIRLOGRAM!!  I feel so.... lied to and used.  It's 'The Crying Game' of swirlograms!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

And interest rates haven't gone up, yet.

I'm reminded of the Cooney-Holmes fight.  Cooney threw out his back while training and the fight had to be postponed.  A sportwriter wrote "He hurt himself training? What's gonna happen when Holmes hits him?"

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:50 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Everything is fine in the toilet bowl until the flush and swirl.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 15:53 | Link to Comment Logiclee03
Logiclee03's picture

Seriously....here in Louisville agents are literally advertising for listings in the $300-$500k range. No inventory and plenty of demand> can't speak for other markets.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Long GOLD till it goes to ZERO

 

 

It's a HEDGE!!!!!!!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 16:12 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

that graph looks like the flying patern... of a fly...

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Goldman Schmoldman! FU LLoyd!

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Parents can't sell their house. Brother can't sell their house. Wife's parents can't sell their house. We can't sell our house. What am I missing?

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:30 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

are you in detroit? location and price, mainly price, guess you could give it a way...

real estate is like gum on your shoe in las vegas...

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:57 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Areas are Fairfield Ct, Richmond Va, Cincinatti Oh and Martinsberg WV so you tell me....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 00:26 | Link to Comment kareninca
kareninca's picture

Oh.  Fairfield.  Hmm.  That makes it harder.

If you were in a middle-brow part of CT (that is, the rest of the state), I'd suggest FLOWERS.  Regular CT people are crazy about flowers.  To have a shot at unloading a CT house, you plant annuals on every square inch of lawn you can, and make it bloom NOW.  Cut forsythia's and put them in pots to bloom.  Dig up forsythias from a neighbor's (the things are weeds; they'll be glad) and plant them so they bloom this spring.  Plant annuals (bulbs), and have the house tour include a map that shows where they will come up, and what they will look like.  Maybe there are bulbs that you can plant now, that are prepped to bloom now.  At the entrance to the house, hanging pots of (BLOOMING) flowers.  Inside the house  -  blooming house plants.

I'm from eastern CT, and that would work there, if anything would.  But Fairfield may be different.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:53 | Link to Comment CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

Agreed - inlaws have a beautiful water front home that is not super fancy but nice...and the price they are asking makes me weep....but not a single bid in over a year.  To think that their area was so "hot" before -- people would knock on doors to ask the owners, "How much?" when houses weren't even for sale.

My, how things have changed.

 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Pakman
Pakman's picture

Long time reader of ZH but this is my first post. I am a builder in Miami, I  build both custom and spec homes in the $2-7mm range. After 2007-10 debacle I had no idea that people could have forgotten so quickly about the 40-50% decline we saw in home values. Our market local bottomed between 2009- 2011. From what I read and see 97% of all that new condo supply built durning the boom changed hands from weak to strong. Those bulk buyers have become land lords. The rents ahve been enough to pay for taxes and maintance/condo fees. In other words no positive carry if you need leverage. The downtown area is so vibrant it's filled with renters typically young professionals but also lots of foreigners. The Brickell area of downtown is giving South Beach a run for it's money as the new destination for the young locals. The skyline is changing again and the tower cranes are back. What I'm hearing from these young people is that they only get to stay in the apartments for a year because the land lords raise the rent when the lease expire. One youngen at my Bankster told me he has moved 3 times in 3 years but there are no more cheap rents. This is backed up from some of my friends who have been able to raise the rents each time on of there lease are expire. Typically from a new renter. 

The construction industry took a huge hit here. The amount of labor that left the state because there were no jobs was enormus. I was able to live through our down cycle by luckly being able to build custom homes for end users. I am telling you that my local market is on fire. It is being financed with cash money, at the margin there is no credit for building much less anything speculative.Only if you hav the money in the bank will a bank lend any to you. The word I have from my trade and design professionals is there has been a tsunami of new business since December. Old projects, that were shelleved when the credit window slammed shut, are back with mostly new owners/developers.

They say you can't fight the FED. After 5 years of ZIRP, people with dough are saying, Fuck It. Most are leary of our rigged equity markets but feel comfortable with real estate because they can look at and touch it. There are no new spec house available in the more suburban neghborhoods that cater to the local professionals and business owners. I started my first spec house in December. A couple of other builders have too. It's the case of first in and hopefully first out. I can confirm the CaseShiller & Core Logic snap shots of our local housing price are correct. These building sites, which are actually old obsolete homes from the 50'-60's known as in-fill, are being offered at about 10% or higher in price than what you could have bot  for last year. I dont like those kinds of increases cause they are unsustainable. Like my dad told me if you are a cook you got to be in the kitchen. I sure hope this crack up boom that Ben is tring to conjure up works for a few years so I can aquire some wealth.     

Don't throw stone I am only the messenger. Live with boots on the ground.

 

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

They are all over there at the bitcoin-thread. And remember the eights rule  ;)

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 19:07 | Link to Comment TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

two of my neighbors have walked away/abandoned their homes. One neighbor had owned home since 1998 - must have refi'd all his equity away.

The other inheirited the home without a loan and still managed to lose it.

The boom of the 00's is still echoing through my neighborhood.

One of my friends is getting ready to walk away from his mortgage as soon as his son graduates high school.

recovery? The foreclosure filings are down from the peak, but the legal pages are still mighty thick.

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 20:02 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

as a former .r.e. broker for 20 years it all comes down to local, local, local conditions and where the money is coming from along with about 10 more variables such as schools, taxes and diversity of job base.  mpls/st. paul saw the swings but remained solid through it all. following 80 year trendlines of income, rents and now a new phenom - interest rates, because as we say you buy a payment. well, that payment is fucking small-fha 2.75 plus fees up the ass but still a smaller than rent payment.  so this will chug to an "ECHO BUBBLE" until, well (to be honest who the f knows) it play repeat as more and more are sucked in to 'easy money' as the shalom inkjetter causes more epic unintended consequenses...

this time i sell, and get the fuck out for good; one for sale/pending and one to go...

Wed, 04/10/2013 - 21:10 | Link to Comment CoolBeans
CoolBeans's picture

You know...since a poster mentioned the NAR - I just have to say this:

The NAR ad about homes being so important to kids, yada, yada, yada makes me want to scream.  I literally change the channel when that ad comes on.  The insensitive pricks don't care about how many families have lost their homes due to foreclosures and oh - didn't I just read a report that over a million school-aged kids in the U.S. are homeless?  

WTF?  Do they not care that there are millions of people who have lost their homes may be watching TV with their kids?  I've seen a kid's face when this ad comes on - knowing that there was a home loss - and his face was so sad.  It just PISSED me off....these NAR bastards will say anything to sell a house and they will report any numbers to make people think that people are buying.

Frankly, I want to see the whole mess crumble.  The banksters can suck it.  They've raped and pillaged -- now its their turn.

Thank you for allowing me to vent - whether you read thru this or not.

G'Day :)

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