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Initial Claims Tumble From Upward Revised 388K To 346K

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following last month's surge in initial claims (subsequently revised even higher from 385K to 388K), the monthly edition in the series tumbled by 44K to 344K, below estimates of 360K, and which will be revised to 348K or so next month. The reason for the volatility given by the DOL is the "unwind of seasonal swings" which would make sense as the unadjusted number actually rose by 37,025, or about the amount the adjusted number dropped by. Continuing claims rose more than expected to 3,079K, from 3067K, however the number was revised so it can be palatable for MSM consumption, and as a result of the upward revision of February from 3063K to 3091K, it "declined." It is unclear how many if any states were estimate by the DOL in this month's edition of pick the noisy number. Most importantly, unlike the entire past two weeks, a good economic print is good for the market, not just a bad economic print.

 


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Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:42 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Sure!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:43 | Link to Comment MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

To infinity and beyond....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:47 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Always wait for the revisions......always.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

still waiting for the revisions of all the 2008 economic data...

 but let's just wait and see what the DOW tells us about these numbers...

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

That chart looks like my sex life after 19 years in to marriage....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Strange... your neighbour told me that this chart looks like a inversed chart of his sex life since you got married 19 years ago....

:)

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

My neighbor is a female, not a man.  Damn, lost her to a strap-on carpet muncher...........Thanks Sudden Debt for letting me know......

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's like being a cleric without a being a cleric

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 15:04 | Link to Comment shermacman
shermacman's picture

To QEternity and beyond...

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:43 | Link to Comment NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Old news.  I assume the usual suspects received this information 24 hours ago.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:12 | Link to Comment tornado_watch
tornado_watch's picture

Indeed... we can call this the "Early Edition" market... Judging by neutral futures and strength in UST, tomorrow's paper is saying retail sales will disappoint

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

short hopium, long fact

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:56 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

In this reality that'll get your face ripped off!!

 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:44 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

short hopium, long fact

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:58 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

In this reality that'll get your face ripped off!!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:45 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

If I sip from my beer 10% of the volume at a time of course there will be some pretty small sips as I approach zero beer left in the job market

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:52 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

zero beer left in the job market

That's the day the shootin' starts!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

As the ranks of those dependent upon govt assistance programs swell, the pool of eligible candidates to leave the workforce shrinks to collect UI shrinks.   There's a direct correlation with employment participation rates.   Because participation rates have been sliding, this weekly figure is no longer a reliable indicator to gauge employment trends.  

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:53 | Link to Comment mckee
mckee's picture

or... I could have said it like that

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:28 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"this weekly figure is no longer a reliable indicator"

I'll put that in my bag with all the others 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:47 | Link to Comment Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

(Somebody has to say it:)   Bullish!!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:50 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Time to buy some stawks!

 

With an economy like this....we can't lose!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:48 | Link to Comment Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

I regard this as a very ulterior hint to the cypriot government how such statistics are to be correctly handled.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:51 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Fed: We will take away that 6.5% unemployment rate requirement monkey we have on our back.The BLS will do it for us. 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

There's also $2.75 - $3.50 billion POMO today for good measure.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

On a related note - there should be a coinflip to see who starts ritoing first - Greece or Cyprus. Once it starts in one the other will have to follow.

Numbers add up to nothing and rust never sleeps.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There will be no meaningful riots as they can always deliver more railcars of cash at each call for leaving the EU. I wonder if Texas starts talking of secession, Bernanke will show up with railcars of cash for us?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Numbers don't mean shit until your number comes up!

And we wonder why drugs are such a problem. It is unforntunate that many of us lack the natural ability to delude ourselves without the help of mind altering substances.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | Link to Comment hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

the drop represents the number of people being switch from claiming unemployment to claiming disability PLUS those dropping out the labor force for other reasons?

how did continuing claims "square" with the participation rate over the last 5 years..sheesh..five years of easy money..and this is not half way through a lost decade? or quarter the way through a lost 20 years of activity? 

hummph

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:55 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

home cleaners, zippy john and craplebees all hiring...

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:58 | Link to Comment spankfish
spankfish's picture

Maybe they counted the Boeing numbers already... wait has not Boeing already cut its workforce by thousands over the last several years, with more layoffs projected?  Who wants to throw the bull shit card?

"Boeing announced its intent to invest $1 billion and employ about 2,000 at its Charleston, S.C., plant by 2020."

http://q13fox.com/2013/04/10/boeing-to-invest-1-billion-hire-2000-at-sc-plant/#axzz2Q9skLwqS

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:23 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

They should all use the standard government method of 10 years projections. Example- We plan to hire 200 workers over the next 10 years. Of course, we expect 500 to die or retire but we will add 200 over 10 years

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:07 | Link to Comment tornado_watch
tornado_watch's picture

Let's compare headlines:

Week ago as claims rose to 385k (now 388k)
(BBG) Stabilizing Confidence Shows Claims Jump Temporary

Today as claims retrace to 346k
(BBG) Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunged More Than Forecast Last Week

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:23 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Could it have been the weather? Were there snowstorms preventing people from going to work and receiving their pink slips?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

I just hired myself ... does that count ?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

so terrible jobs reports= markets go up

 

ok jobless claims number= markets go up.

 

make up ur mind fucking wall st thieves, if u want to cheer bad data because u think longer qe, fine, but when we have ''ok'' data, dont cheer it u fucking assholes.

 

i wish i can hack into the system and crash it, i would love to see the panic on all of wall sts face. itd be priceless.unfortunately, im not that talented.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

And today the banksters have sexual relations with Obama again. Dimon is first up

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Tyler, get over it. THERE.IS.NO.PRICE.DISCOVERY. THERE.IS.NO.MARKET.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:36 | Link to Comment mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I aint need no job cuz I got SSI.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Cheeseus Sonofdog
Cheeseus Sonofdog's picture

Spring break and the weather is great. Who wants to ruin that by going down to a government office to file for unemployment? It can wait for a rainy day....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:00 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Even when you have three jobs and then lose two, you cannot claim unemployment.

 

Like most numbers these days, this one is useless as an indicator of things to come.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:04 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

Just wait for the earnings numbers.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:07 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

Down 37K year over year unadjusted.  It's not good but it's not bad enough to get the collapse ball rolling.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:21 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

These unemployment numbers remind me of budget pronouncements. "After massive, devastating cuts in the budget, we are only spending 2% more than last year."

 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

At what point do we all agree that when the "smoothing" adjustments don't actually do what they are supposed to, then all they have become is a political tool.  We should be going back to raw numbers with perhaps 37 months of data and let the public decide if it is seasonal or not.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

the dipshits on BBG said last weeks poor numbers were an Easter effect (no one afterall knew that Easter was at the end of March this year) and reassurred viewers earlier today that this weeks numbers would therefore be better. 

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