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Initial Claims Tumble From Upward Revised 388K To 346K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following last month's surge in initial claims (subsequently revised even higher from 385K to 388K), the monthly edition in the series tumbled by 44K to 344K, below estimates of 360K, and which will be revised to 348K or so next month. The reason for the volatility given by the DOL is the "unwind of seasonal swings" which would make sense as the unadjusted number actually rose by 37,025, or about the amount the adjusted number dropped by. Continuing claims rose more than expected to 3,079K, from 3067K, however the number was revised so it can be palatable for MSM consumption, and as a result of the upward revision of February from 3063K to 3091K, it "declined." It is unclear how many if any states were estimate by the DOL in this month's edition of pick the noisy number. Most importantly, unlike the entire past two weeks, a good economic print is good for the market, not just a bad economic print.

 

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Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:42 | 3435751 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Sure!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:43 | 3435760 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

To infinity and beyond....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:47 | 3435768 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Always wait for the revisions......always.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:51 | 3435775 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

still waiting for the revisions of all the 2008 economic data...

 but let's just wait and see what the DOW tells us about these numbers...

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:14 | 3435858 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

That chart looks like my sex life after 19 years in to marriage....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:04 | 3436052 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Strange... your neighbour told me that this chart looks like a inversed chart of his sex life since you got married 19 years ago....

:)

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:39 | 3436227 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

My neighbor is a female, not a man.  Damn, lost her to a strap-on carpet muncher...........Thanks Sudden Debt for letting me know......

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:28 | 3436159 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's like being a cleric without a being a cleric

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 15:04 | 3437657 shermacman
shermacman's picture

To QEternity and beyond...

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:43 | 3435757 NeedleDickTheBu...
NeedleDickTheBugFucker's picture

Old news.  I assume the usual suspects received this information 24 hours ago.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:12 | 3435851 tornado_watch
tornado_watch's picture

Indeed... we can call this the "Early Edition" market... Judging by neutral futures and strength in UST, tomorrow's paper is saying retail sales will disappoint

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:44 | 3435758 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

short hopium, long fact

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:56 | 3435806 mckee
mckee's picture

In this reality that'll get your face ripped off!!

 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:44 | 3435759 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

short hopium, long fact

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:58 | 3435809 mckee
mckee's picture

In this reality that'll get your face ripped off!!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:45 | 3435762 mckee
mckee's picture

If I sip from my beer 10% of the volume at a time of course there will be some pretty small sips as I approach zero beer left in the job market

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:52 | 3435786 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

zero beer left in the job market

That's the day the shootin' starts!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:47 | 3435766 Stuart
Stuart's picture

As the ranks of those dependent upon govt assistance programs swell, the pool of eligible candidates to leave the workforce shrinks to collect UI shrinks.   There's a direct correlation with employment participation rates.   Because participation rates have been sliding, this weekly figure is no longer a reliable indicator to gauge employment trends.  

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:53 | 3435791 mckee
mckee's picture

or... I could have said it like that

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:28 | 3436168 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"this weekly figure is no longer a reliable indicator"

I'll put that in my bag with all the others 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:47 | 3435767 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

(Somebody has to say it:)   Bullish!!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:50 | 3435771 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Time to buy some stawks!

 

With an economy like this....we can't lose!

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:48 | 3435773 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

I regard this as a very ulterior hint to the cypriot government how such statistics are to be correctly handled.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:51 | 3435782 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Fed: We will take away that 6.5% unemployment rate requirement monkey we have on our back.The BLS will do it for us. 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | 3435787 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

There's also $2.75 - $3.50 billion POMO today for good measure.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | 3435789 BandGap
BandGap's picture

On a related note - there should be a coinflip to see who starts ritoing first - Greece or Cyprus. Once it starts in one the other will have to follow.

Numbers add up to nothing and rust never sleeps.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:00 | 3435816 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There will be no meaningful riots as they can always deliver more railcars of cash at each call for leaving the EU. I wonder if Texas starts talking of secession, Bernanke will show up with railcars of cash for us?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | 3435790 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Numbers don't mean shit until your number comes up!

And we wonder why drugs are such a problem. It is unforntunate that many of us lack the natural ability to delude ourselves without the help of mind altering substances.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:54 | 3435794 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

the drop represents the number of people being switch from claiming unemployment to claiming disability PLUS those dropping out the labor force for other reasons?

how did continuing claims "square" with the participation rate over the last 5 years..sheesh..five years of easy money..and this is not half way through a lost decade? or quarter the way through a lost 20 years of activity? 

hummph

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:55 | 3435795 new game
new game's picture

home cleaners, zippy john and craplebees all hiring...

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 08:58 | 3435813 spankfish
spankfish's picture

Maybe they counted the Boeing numbers already... wait has not Boeing already cut its workforce by thousands over the last several years, with more layoffs projected?  Who wants to throw the bull shit card?

"Boeing announced its intent to invest $1 billion and employ about 2,000 at its Charleston, S.C., plant by 2020."

http://q13fox.com/2013/04/10/boeing-to-invest-1-billion-hire-2000-at-sc-plant/#axzz2Q9skLwqS

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:23 | 3435892 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

They should all use the standard government method of 10 years projections. Example- We plan to hire 200 workers over the next 10 years. Of course, we expect 500 to die or retire but we will add 200 over 10 years

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:07 | 3435834 tornado_watch
tornado_watch's picture

Let's compare headlines:

Week ago as claims rose to 385k (now 388k)
(BBG) Stabilizing Confidence Shows Claims Jump Temporary

Today as claims retrace to 346k
(BBG) Jobless Claims in U.S. Plunged More Than Forecast Last Week

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:23 | 3436137 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Could it have been the weather? Were there snowstorms preventing people from going to work and receiving their pink slips?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:11 | 3435849 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

I just hired myself ... does that count ?

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:14 | 3435861 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

so terrible jobs reports= markets go up

 

ok jobless claims number= markets go up.

 

make up ur mind fucking wall st thieves, if u want to cheer bad data because u think longer qe, fine, but when we have ''ok'' data, dont cheer it u fucking assholes.

 

i wish i can hack into the system and crash it, i would love to see the panic on all of wall sts face. itd be priceless.unfortunately, im not that talented.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:21 | 3435884 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

And today the banksters have sexual relations with Obama again. Dimon is first up

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:32 | 3435923 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Tyler, get over it. THERE.IS.NO.PRICE.DISCOVERY. THERE.IS.NO.MARKET.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:36 | 3435943 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I aint need no job cuz I got SSI.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 09:40 | 3435960 Cheeseus Sonofdog
Cheeseus Sonofdog's picture

Spring break and the weather is great. Who wants to ruin that by going down to a government office to file for unemployment? It can wait for a rainy day....

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:00 | 3436038 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Even when you have three jobs and then lose two, you cannot claim unemployment.

 

Like most numbers these days, this one is useless as an indicator of things to come.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:04 | 3436055 css1971
css1971's picture

Just wait for the earnings numbers.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:07 | 3436066 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Down 37K year over year unadjusted.  It's not good but it's not bad enough to get the collapse ball rolling.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:21 | 3436121 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

These unemployment numbers remind me of budget pronouncements. "After massive, devastating cuts in the budget, we are only spending 2% more than last year."

 

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 10:41 | 3436237 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

At what point do we all agree that when the "smoothing" adjustments don't actually do what they are supposed to, then all they have become is a political tool.  We should be going back to raw numbers with perhaps 37 months of data and let the public decide if it is seasonal or not.

Thu, 04/11/2013 - 11:36 | 3436605 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

the dipshits on BBG said last weeks poor numbers were an Easter effect (no one afterall knew that Easter was at the end of March this year) and reassurred viewers earlier today that this weeks numbers would therefore be better. 

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