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Stocks Up, VIX Up, Bonds Up, Bitcoin Down (& Out?)
For the second day in a row, VIX has gone nowhere as stocks pushed on to new highs. PC-related names were hammered on the dismal shipments data and Transports also suffered once again. The S&P made new all-time highs but with the JPY unable to break 100 (yet), ES lost its partner-in-crime and faded back to VWAP into the close. While the major indices closed green (once again) and in spite of less demand than expected at the 30Y auction today, Treasuries were absolutely not being rotated away from. 10Y was -1bps at around 1.79%. Stocks topped out at the European close (POMO end) which also coincided with the low of the day in the USD. Commodities mirrored the USD today with gold, silver, and copper all rolling back towards unch on the day as EUR and JPY weakened. WTI was the worst performer -1.25% testing down to $93 intraday. Bitcoin was falling early before MtGox decided a 12-hour halt was necessary (though other exchanges show prices under $40 at their worst) - we only hope this 'temporary' halt is not as temporary as Cyprus capital controls.
Today was all about the US open to EU Close (again)...
VIX Up (flat) as the S&P pushes to new highs...
Gold and Silver rolled over as the USD strengthened; oil was the biggest loser on the day
AUDJPY has been more highly correlated than EURJPY to stocks and the stall this afternoon is likely what stopped propelling the S&P above 1600...
In general equity risk was disconnected from other risk-assets and cross-asset-class correlation crumbled to negative as the US open to EU close move ignored everything and just melted up..
Stocks seemed destined to reach up to the lower-end of the trend-channel and got close before running out of steam...
Bitcoin dropped to $125 and was halted...
But Bitcoin-24.com stayed open and BTC prices fell below $40 at one point - now trading $85...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Thank god for the crash. I support bitcoin, but nothing needs to appreciate that fast. The BTC is now spread among many more hands too, so I am quite glad for the price drop.
http://bestbitcoinsites.wordpress.com
That's not usually what I say after I "lose" a bunch of money.
Funny, everyone on here always whining about silver / gold manipulation...lot of glee over bitcoin smackdown though (which is a relatively tiny market)?
From Bloomberg:
After the last few hours of Bitcoin trading, it’s hard to imagine that anyone can really imagine that the Bitcoin market is driven in any way by long-term demand for an anonymous currency. The last few hours provide an excellent demonstration that what we’re seeing here is entirely a speculative mania.
Sounds oddly familiar...
People are always quick to blame "manipulation" and conspiracy theories when the real truth is too hard to swallow - that their own initial assumptions were simply wrong.
My own parents watched the Zapruder film with me. They watch Kennedy's head being hit in the front right and thrown to the rear left. But their government tells them basic, Newtonian physics did not apply in Dallas that day in 1963. So their eyes must be wrong, there must be some other explanation.
Conspiracy is just a simple fact of political life. It was in the time of Nero and Seneca and it remains so today.
Of course Bitcoin is manipulated. Who said it wasn't? The glee is the fact that some didn't see it in a bubble.
Any competing currency to the USD and banking establishment will be smacked, controlled, manipulated, etc.... Seems rather logical, no?
Hey, I agree that 400% move in a couple days time is bubbly. Perhaps certain people were even driving it up to smack it back down and scare people out of it? I don't know.... what I do know is that the technology and concept itself is brilliant and if you were in BTC back at $5 anyway who cares?
With all due respect, the banks care, BIGTIME. Their revenue stream based on taxing each debit and credit transaction, along with mortgage lending, IS the reason they exist. Once you introduce a competing currency for everyday use, thereby getting rid of a huge revenue stream, and you've basically put a huge target on your back. The banks will not let Bitcoin advance without serious attempts to crush it.
Such is life in a fascist world, with fake stock markets and idiotic politicians.
The Bitcoin notion is great. The application will be sabotaged - guaranteed.
Sabotaged, but not destroyed.
Hmmm. Bitcoin or the State of Illinois...the State of Illinois or bitcoin. Hmmmm.
One of the many problems with Bitcoins is that you can't "lose" them on your monthly canoe trips - they're always in the man's system. One of the others is you can't keep the man from buying/selling them - with an evil purpose. Another is that competition from competing protocols will dilute the entire concept.
Bitcoin is nobel in purpose, fantastic as an intellectual exercise, but a failure in terms of ability to compete with pure corruption.
TPTB have no need for bitcoins - so it will be mercilessly suppressed. TPTB have a reason to surpess gold - but not destroy it - they know Au is money and are stacking as hard as any here. That's the difference. PMs will never be totally destroyed because the man, ultimately, relies on it. Good sale going on right about now too. . .
Relative or Absolute failure?
It has done better than silver in the last few months.
All our wealth has been suppressed. Let us not pretend that bitcoin can free us, nor can any other single thing. Only when the banksters and oligarchs and the PC tards are swinging from lamposts will our repression ease.
Well I agree except that I believe it is the banks who will be crushed by sheer numbers, overwhelming public opinion and people simply opting out of their system.
Gee, the price is back to what it was a few weeks ago... that's a monster problem?
Some people love to use fear and ridicule. Schoolyard shit for those who never grew up.
Beside, Bitcoin was not intended to be a long-term store of value - it is a currency. Once it has a few more years and a bit more stability, it may be more or a viable store of value. But that takes time.
Fiat has to be supported with guns, I will remind the haters. (Not that they'll care.)
And it is NOT an investment.
BTF(Bit)D!!
Keeping this response for use later when you and others like you call it an investment.
'Some people love to use fear and ridicule.'
Some people call a loss a loss.
How does a 'currency' go from $260 to $40 in a day? Did I say 1 day, let's not be disingenuous here, two days then, or was it three, 'cos that makes a big differnce doesn't it.
'And it is NOT an investment. '- you can say that again, fucking stupidity is what it is...
So my Prophet, did you short Bitcoin, or make nothing out of it? What profits came from your wisdom?
What profits came from your wisdom?...
While wisdom and wealth may both be lights, they are different "colors". There are plenty of wealthy fools, but I'm not sure I would want to be counted among them.
This is not to suggest I'm all that wise, it's just my bent.
What do you do with your guilt? Denial only works up to a point.
The race is not always to the swift...
My guilt? My conscience is clear, regarding my conduct with other people...pretty much. My conduct regarding my own life is murkier. If only I had more energy, more self-discipline and more courage. Guess the testing times will come soon, when I will know whether I have repented, or fall into the decadence patterned in my earlier life.
It's a matter of occam's razor. In the case of BTC I can perfectly well explain this without conspiracy. Especially since the exact same bubble pattern happened in 2011 for the exact same reasons. In the case of Kennedy? Not so much.
Occam's razor has been abused by the non-enquiring minds to the point where it is a broken, rusting xacto knife in my tool shed.
You go to school in Texas?
Fundamental problem of Occan's razor is denumerating axioms. And axioms are not all of equal complexity. One mathematicians axiom is another's theorem.
When it comes to politics few things can be derived from fundamental principles. If you think JFK's death reduces to that of a theorem you are mistaken.
Would you deny that there are no truths, no broad inferences we can derive from the study of man and history?
I only used JFK's assasination to point out people's conflicted nature between simple observation and established belief systems. The physics side of things should be self-evident.
If the physics side of things is self-evident, tehre would not be more than one form of the wave equation in quantum mechanics, and cosmology would not postulate dark matter to explain the deficiencies in a simple geometrical model of the the Big Bang.
'Would you deny that there are no truths, no broad inferences we can derive from the study of man and history?'
Thing about inferences, is that they are not unique. Like truths. 'Truth' is the foot stamped appendix on a sentence that makes it more convincing. It does not make the sentence more meaningful. There are good and bad inferences. Useful theories and such. But a useful spanner is good only because it is useful, not because it is true on some metaphysical plane.
Beautifully put. Now prepare yourself for the hate comments.
They only love free markets when markets are buying what they are buying. That's why they are fake libertarians.
What I find amazing is that these supposed libertarians who believe they understand the fraudulent nature of the Federal Reserve System and fractional-reserve lending could go on to make such an idiotic logical fallacy as to confuse what is corporeal with what is real (or not). If you deny the existence of Bitcoin, you must deny the existence of P2P networking. Then it becomes axiomatic that you deny the existence of the public internet! Then you must deny the existence of the people whose jobs and careers are set with maintaining this network!
Far more likely, this is the foolhardy, emotionally charged backlash of the technically non-sophisticated railing against what they cannot or do not understand. They find themselves drowning in an increasingly virtualized and sophisticated digital world with no virtual life vest. Nobody is going to take the time to explain this to you. You enjoyed this technology when it was warm and fuzzy and now if you don't grasp it, prepare to get fucked hard by it.
Are you buying at these prices?
I stopped buying around $100. Things got too crazy. I still will buy at $500 but it may take some more time to get there in a more controlled way. At the end of the day, I don't care what my BTC is worth in terms of FRN.
If you are buying or selling anything, you care. Pricing is impossible in such volatility.
'BTF(Bit)D!!'
Bullshit. You're lying.
LOL. That's a lot of words to justify a false belief that Bitcoin did not actually crash.
Who is denying that Bitcoin crashed (in terms of FRN)? I am denying the opposition's premise that Bitcoin, somehow, does not even qualify for existence!
Ok, maybe you haven't denied a crash, but some pumpers on this thread just yesterday, for all intents and purposes, have done so.
What crash? I see no crash.
more like BOOM & BUST in a SINGLE WEEK.
It's not a crash, just a flesh wound...
He needed a straw man to feel superior. The range of their economic expression is 'buy precious metals,'
Been there, got the food in, the candles, the ethanol, the camping stove, the solar panel and the 12V USB recharger. Bitcoin added diversity. Just as the governments are templating bank accounts into zero (the true zero, not the kind expressed by these luddites as the value of bitoins), making paper currency which they printed illegal, and pretty much stamping on everything else it should not take too much intelligence to understand we look for a little diversity and a new form of decentralized electronic expression for our assets.
A promise to pay gold can end up worthless. Currency backed by gold can be unbacked by government whim. Currency that requires physical delivery with coins that are valued at $50,000 each, is not functional for day to day use. As about as welcome as popping into lidl with a 1kg gold bar and asking for a loaf of bread.
So what you're saying is what the world needs is not 'bitcoin or any other such idiocy but gold back in money so that it can be traded in easily recognisable abnd variable denominations then, yes?
Bitcoin is noble both in terms of its technology as well as its ideology. But any currency — virtual or physical — which is at odds with the monetary system that rules this planet will find itself on the losing end of any fight to gain mainstream acceptance. It doesn't matter how technologically advanced it is.
That's just a fact. I take no joy in pointing it out because it means we're all pretty much trapped until the system implodes. Bitcoin may increase in value and gain more widespread attention from here, but it will never be allowed to compete with fiat, and any time it seems to be picking up momentum, it will be smacked down. This probably makes me sound like a defeatist, but I'm just trying to be realistic about what can be accomplished.
Bitcoin is as you say, a fiat currency that resides in the hands of the people, rather than the FED.
Fair enough. Now, we can agree that both currencies are dependent on faith for their resilience in markets? So, to be taken seriously, a currency must have some reliabilty in regards to value?
Further, the currency, if traded in other fiat currencies with greater degrees of liquidity, coupled with the ability of traders to enter and exit the market with great volatility, gives the CB's the ability to destroy same said currency?
So, why would I use it?
During the Weimar regime, when hyperinflation ruled the markets, currency was traded for real goods as quickly as possible. This is the problem confronting bitcoins. It is not about libertarians nor anarchists. It is a question of value, because in a marketplace of fiat currencies, bitcoin is just one more of them, but lacking the legitimacy of a central government to SECURE value.
Whereas, silver, gold, wheat or coffee never go to zero, bitcoins can and without someone to guarantee some level of value, bitcoin has a major problem. Why would anyone invest in a currency that is based on faith if there is no actual backstop?
Buying in, for the benefit of a revolution is a lofty ideal, but the fall when ideals go flat can be quite damaging. Ultimately, people are greedy, not all, nor is it our best quality, but it is consistent across cultures. This is the hurdle bitcoin must leap.
Okay, granted ~ YES! Both FRN and BTC are faith-based systems whose value is subjective. But there are many types of value. What I like to concentrate on (right now at least) is the relational value of Bitcoin to the nationalist-fiat currencies. The fact that you can buy Bitcoin in local currency, transfer it anywhere else on Earth anonymously and back into currency of your choosing is HUGE. This is why I am so big on the value side of BTC.
As for your other point, yes, commodities will also not go to zero as they possess utility in the real world. I would argue though, based on Bitcoin's relational value (to gov't fiat) and distributed computing + statistical probability that BTC will also never go to zero.
You are obviously a true believer. Good luck!
Yes and believe it or not, I don't get excited about things easily! People say that I am pretty reserved and dry. But having technical expertise, an interest in markets and being a fan of John von Neumann puts me in a unique juxtaposition to appreciate the genius of Satoshi's creation.
'But there are many types of value. '
Riiiiiiiiight...
That's why they are fake libertarians.
Yep, they get all enthused when you talk about getting rid of taxes or allowing them to smoke weed, but once anything is required of them, they run right back to the state.
At the first sign of adversity, they cling to the state and find reasons ("Minarchy") to justify their unwillingness to pay a price for freedom.
Time to apologize to all the people you encouraged to get into bitcoin at north of 100$. You bitcoiner jerks blowtorched a bunch of people.
Fukkkkzat, yo.
Your statement completely removes individual responsibility form those who were "blowtorched".
That mofo had bubble written all over it.
By that (IL)logic...everyone who encouraged friends and family to get into silver north of $28 "blowtorched" them...
Forget the fact that LIKE PHYSICAL SILVER OR GOLD, bitcoiners only lose if they DUMP them or use them to buy something while they are at the lower level.
Many bitcoiners, however, recognize that this shit-show - LIKE THE ONES IN GOLD AND SILVER - is background noise, and that in fact, they haven't lost a dime if they haven't dumped their bitcoins.
Tyler is feeding your confirmation bias by preying on your ignorance of the subject.
"They find themselves drowning in an increasingly virtualized and sophisticated digital world with no virtual life vest."
Wait...the people who own physical gold and silver instead of bitcoins are currently drowning in your "sophisticated digital world"? LOL...
I hate to break it to you, but we measure our PM holdings in OUNCES, not dollars, or bitcoins, or any other currency. Do you understand that concept? I don't think you do...
"...prepare to get fucked hard by it."
...Or simply passed over by it...
By the rabidity, you'd think all these folks have had bitcoin forced down their throats.
Asinine.
much less about 'glee', and more about 'i told you so'.
pm bugs have been getting the shaft for the longest time now, and we know what that looks/feels like.
the abused often go on to be abusers
sad fact
but it doesn't excuse the wrongness
Non-story. Bitcoin is just a barbaric relic.
Considering I invested in 2011, I haven't :-)
LOL. All the pumpers that were pumping the day before the crash now claim to have bought way, way low. So they are are geniuses and stopped buying at $100, but did not hesitate to try and pump others into BTC at $260. Nice.
Some of us stopped buying at $50 and told our friends to invest in silver when it hit $200.
Would you expect any more from a bunch of scammers and greedy losertarians?
You will hear from exactly zero bitcoiner true believers who admit to buying more bitcoins for more than the current collapsing price. They will all say they knew it was a bubble and got out at the peak, all while they told ZeroHedgers to jump in at north of $200 to get rich quick.
Who's the sucker at the Bitcoin table?
"Down goes bitcoin."
</Howard Cosell voice>
They were bred to go down
Bitcoins going bite sized now?
That's what Obama tells his staff bitchez every day.
Don't you have to say it three times?
Bitlesscoin...
You'll just love zero then- should be about next Wednesday.....
Just waiting for that gold to explode in value. Aaany year now.
Man - the Bitcoin faithfull have really latched onto this shit.
Pros/Cons of Bitcoins as Money:
(1) durable - only as long as the internet is up.
(2) divisible - better at this than probably anything else.
(3) convenient - has great potential, but not there yet.
(4) consistent - again, ideal in this aspect.
(5) possesses value - because bitcoin is virtual by design, proponents would argue that feature is N/A as a matter of monetary philosopy.
(6) must be limited in the quantity - sort of. Competing virtual currancies could be an issue in the future.
(7) long history of acceptance (which is a proxy for "stability") epic fail. Adopting bitcoin is an act of speculation at this point almost by definition.
Speculation is fine - just don't be betting the farm on that shit. . .
Yeah, that 500% increase in value since 2000 has just been pitiful...
And are we now in year 2000? That's the problem with most gold bugs, they want to relive the past. The classic mistake of buying at the top.
BLOOMBERG NEWS: * Moody's Just Downgrade GOLD to "Outlook Negative".
Bu-ha-ha.. Just kidding, but I won't be surprised to read nonsense like that soon,
While DOW and S&P freak show continues, everything is possible :)
I agree. Thing were getting too frothy there. All the dummies bought and sold. Now I buy my Bitcoin becasue Bitcoin is my currency. My currency is mathematically sound and has to be p2p.
fonestar: You went pretty silent yesterday. I just hope you cashed out.
Via Tyler yesterday. Look for yourself. I respect you guys for your fervor but let's get real.
Phase II: Don't make enemies when you need not do so.
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/widget/chart/
I was busy in the field doing "fake" work with 1's and 0's and shizz...
We define our manhood as the number of enemies we foster.
Bitcoin did need to correct, but the correction itself looked a little odd.
It's now coming out that part of the problem Mt Gox had that was being labeled as a DDoS was thousands and thousands of 0.001 BTC trades with the price changing by a cent or so. Sound familiar? Yes, the HFT guys were actively gaming the BTC exchange rate.
It'll sort out, and we'll get some more robust exchanges on top of this.
It'll sort out, and we'll get some more robust exchanges on top of this.
It will, and the entire BTC economy will have to get past the online exchangers. They are the weak links.
An omen
Bit The Dust Coins.
When lacking in good arguments, bad puns are a good substitute.
No puns from me.
Here's a good argument: Bitcoin crashed like pumpers said it could not, and like the pumpers still deny it did.
Link me a crash denyin pumper.
You gotta admit the "bitcoin crashed because it was so popular/successful" meme was a bit of brilliance that even Baghdad Bob would've been proud of.
"We are winning!"
I try not to use the word 'meme' as it implies that memetics is somehow more respectable than any other pyschobabble of the age.
Bitcoin crashed because...well I cannot say. Judgement on day 2 is too early. Guesswork. Gamblers may guess red and guess correctly, but do they deserve our revereance for it?
See, this is where subjectivity conveniently comes in handy...because by employing subjectivity, one can stretch the definition of words to fit almost any narrative.
Say you want to claim something has "crashed"...by contorting the meaning, you can declare a crash has occured, while the subject being discussed is still valued at a multiple of 5 or 10 times what it was valued at just weeks before.
...as though the word "correction" has been banished from the lexicon...
True, but that was a good pun.
Yawn. Stocks up, bears are bitter and confused etc etc
Chuck Norris/North Korea jokes were much more fun.
Chuck Norris does not launch missiles, he IS the missile.
Ooooh looky. A graph going from bottom left to top right!
Don't worry. The Winklevoss twins got the bitcoin market cornered.
http://www.wnd.com/wnd_video/new-bill-requires-gold-and-silver-registrat...
.
New bill requires gold and silver registration
.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/wnd_video/new-bill-requires-gold-and-silver-registrat...
1.) Old news
2.) Hah ha ha ha ha Who's dumb enough to bother?
3.) GLD holders exempt as is no gold in them thar vaults
4.) Betcha the Rothschilds are the only ones who comply
There are people, admittedly strange, who actually enjoy the smell of compost and manure they'll be shoveling with abandon into garden beds shortly. It's clear today's market action was precisely for these folks, especially from 10 - 11:30 in the S&P and 2:30 - 3 in the Nasdaq, but in this case the matter was not even close to organic. Parabolic, no normal pullback bars, nothing but green green green. No professional investors, even those with a bit of urgency, would deploy funds this way after yesterday's rise. Who knew that "Green Computing" meant algos in charge which, like Charles in Charge, has creepy people with mysterious motivations firmly in control.
The euro cross, the jpy cross, now the aussie...great! I now have to watch three currency pairs to trade freakin' shares of SODA!
Just collapse already, please.
+1
Stawks are pure fucking insanity at this point....I'm not even bothering to watch anymore.
The Laws of gravity have been suspended, so please can I get of the earth now
before it blows up/in.
Which way to the next planet? Thanks.
SDO,
Sure you are. You cannot help yourself ;)
So, if one sees the yen going to 140 minimum, (and possibly 240), then equities (say S&P) go to over 2200. When one considers how much money has been created via QE (1.7 trillion?), then 2200 is probably a conservative figure. In 2007 stocks were at 1575. Money supply (using Fed balance sheet as proxy) has tripled....thus index could be at 6000. It will only go up since it is policy tool. QE cannot ever end...the Fed and TPTB know this. They will own EVERYTHING because they have the mionoploy on cash creation. Since 1913, that was aklways the intention. Me...long NZD/yen and will hold that for two years. I think stocks go parabolic
How do we know that any number coming out of the markets is real?
They are prepared by Fred over at the BLS in his spare time.
Say no more.
I'm trying to figure out why JCP has jumped over 6% today.
Is it that jobless claims were down, so that means bankrupt retailers will do better? I'm not really seeing the correlation.
So what happens when all the orders for changing Bitcoins into $120 hit Mt Gox when it comes online and other exchanges have the rate at $85 or whatever the Bitcoin is worth the next minute.
It's hard enough to get a quoted price for a stock, but most people don't care it the $200 share is off a a few pennies. You could have put in an order to exchange 100 Bitcoins at $120 and then see a value of $40 per hit your screen.
One of my favorite Bitcoin quotes is from a mining site telling you to join a Bitcoin pool. One of the questions asked is, "What is there to stop the owner of the pool from just keeping all the Bitcoins".
The answer was, "Nothing, Bitcoin is based on freedom, and a pool owner would be free to keep all the coins awarded to his pool. However most pool operators are honest and will divide the awarded block so as to keep his pool active. Of course there is also nothing from stopping the pool owner from signing up other users and doing the exact same thing to them."
"What is there to stop the owner of the pool from just keeping all the Bitcoins".
What is there to stop the JP Morgue from algo'ng your favorite stock, or Draghi from "templating" your cash savings and going all Cyrpus on you? Nothing. I fail to see your point.
His point is that he is a sage. One of the elder wisemen of trade, and he knew exactly when to short bitcoin. Just that he didn't because that would have soiled his impartiality.
I've been told BitCoins were superior to fiat, so I tried wiping my ass with them. Big mistake!
"Big mistake!"
What happend, please tell, did it make a honey booboo?
(finite time on blue marble)
We are seeing the Great Rotation out of Bitcoin, and into everything else.
And Soros opens his mouth again. The peanut gallery can guess at his real intentions but this is different wrinkle to the euro saga not really mentioned around here.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/george-soros-says-germany-mus...
Investor George Soros: Germany Must Accept Eurobonds or Leave EuroDespite a period of relative calm last year, the euro crisis is creeping back in 2013. In an essay for SPIEGEL ONLINE, star investor George Soros argues that the situation would improve dramatically were Germany to accept Eurobonds. Absent such acceptance, Berlin should consider leaving the euro zone, he argues.
The euro crisis has already transformed the European Union from a voluntary association of equal states into a creditor-debtor relationship from which there is no easy escape. The creditors stand to lose large sums should a member state exit the union, yet debtors are subjected to policies that deepen their depression, aggravate their debt burden and perpetuate their subordinate position. As a result, the crisis is now threatening to destroy the European Union. That would be a tragedy of historic proportions which can only be prevented with German leadership.
The causes of the crisis cannot be properly understood without recognizing the euro's fatal flaw: By creating an independent central bank, member countries have become indebted in a currency that they do not control. At first both the authorities and market participants treated all government bonds as if they were riskless, creating a perverse incentive for banks to load up on the weaker bonds. When the Greek crisis raised the specter of default, financial markets reacted with a vengeance, relegating all heavily indebted euro-zone members to the status of third world countries over-extended in a foreign currency. Subsequently, the debtors were treated as if they were solely responsible for their misfortunes and the structural defects of the euro remained uncorrected.
Once this is understood the solution practically suggests itself. It can be summed up in one word: eurobonds.
If countries that abide by the EU's new Fiscal Compact were allowed but not required to convert their entire stock of government debt into eurobonds, the positive impact would be little short of miraculous. The danger of default would disappear, as would risk premiums. Banks' balance sheets would receive an immediate boost as would the heavily indebted countries' budgets. Italy, for example, would save up to 4 percent of its GDP. Its budget would move into surplus, and fiscal stimulus would replace austerity. As a result its economy would grow and its debt ratio would fall. Most of the seemingly intractable problems would vanish into thin air. It would be like waking from a nightmare.
Eurobonds Would Not Ruin Germany's Credit Rating
In accordance with the Fiscal Compact, member countries would be allowed to issue new eurobonds only to replace maturing ones; after five years the debts outstanding would be gradually reduced to 60 percent of GDP. If a member country ran up additional debts it could borrow only in its own name. Admittedly, the Fiscal Compact needs some modifications to ensure that the penalties for noncompliance are automatic, prompt and not too severe to be credible. A tighter Fiscal Compact would practically eliminate the risk of default.
Thus, eurobonds would not ruin Germany's credit rating. On the contrary, they would favorably compare with the bonds of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
To be sure, eurobonds are not a panacea. The boost derived from eurobonds may not be sufficient to ensure recovery; additional fiscal and/or monetary stimulus may be needed. But having such a problem would be a luxury. More troubling, is that eurobonds would not eliminate divergences in competitiveness. Individual countries would still need to undertake structural reforms. The European Union would also need a banking union to make credit available on equal terms in every country. The Cyprus rescue made the need more acute by making the field more uneven. But Germany accepting eurobonds would totally change the atmosphere and facilitate the needed reforms.
Unfortunately, Germany remains adamantly opposed to eurobonds. Since Chancellor Merkel vetoed the idea, they have not been given any consideration. The German public doesn't realize that agreeing to eurobonds would be much less risky and costly than continuing to do only the minimum to preserve the euro.
The Case for Germany's Exit
Germany has the right to reject eurobonds. But it has no right to prevent the heavily indebted countries from escaping their misery by banding together and issuing them. If Germany is opposed to eurobonds it should consider leaving the euro. Surprisingly, eurobonds issued by a Germany-less euro zone would still compare favorably with the bonds of the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The reason is simple. Since all the accumulated debt is denominated in euros, it makes all the difference which country leaves the euro. If Germany left, the euro would depreciate. The debtor countries would regain their competitiveness. Their debt would diminish in real terms and, if they issued eurobonds, the threat of default would disappear. Their debt would suddenly become sustainable.
At the same time, most of the burden of adjustment would fall on the countries that left the euro. Their exports would become less competitive and they would encounter heavy competition from the rump euro zone area in their home markets. They would also incur losses on their claims and investments denominated in euro.
By contrast, if Italy left the euro zone, its euro-denominated debt burden would become unsustainable and would have to be restructured, plunging the global financial system into chaos. So, if anyone must leave, it should be Germany, not Italy.
There is a strong case for Germany to decide whether to accept eurobonds or leave the euro zone, but is it less obvious which of the two alternatives would be better for the country. Only the German electorate is qualified to decide.
Not in Germany's Interest
If a referendum were held today, the supporters of a German exit would win hands down. But more intensive consideration could change people's mind. They would discover that the cost to Germany of authorizing eurobonds has been greatly exaggerated, and the cost of leaving the euro understated.
The trouble is that Germany has not been forced to choose. It can continue to do nothing more than the minimum to preserve the euro. This is clearly Merkel's preferred choice, at least until after the elections.
Europe would be infinitely better off if Germany made a definitive choice between eurobonds and exit, regardless of the outcome. Indeed, Germany would be better off as well except perhaps in the very near term. The situation is deteriorating and in the longer term it is bound to become unsustainable. A disorderly disintegration resulting in mutual recriminations and unsettled claims would leave Europe worse off than it was when it embarked on the bold experiment of unification. Surely that is not in Germany's interest.
So, Soros is long Euros?
No, just long in the tooth, like an aging Snagglepuss.
(For those under 45, Snagglepuss was a pink cartoon mountain lion appearing on the Yogi Bear show).
And Booboo even. The other joke is about people with horse like chompers calling them snaggletooth.
Now what to do? I am perplexed. WAIT! I know, BUY MOAR SILVER.
To do what with?
To look at until I need it.
How long before Stuxnet/Flame whatever is modified to go after Bitcoin?
VIRTUAL CONFISCATION !!!!
Bitcoin will still be here in a month. Anyone naysayers willing to put their money where their mouth is and short it? I shall not be selling mine until I see $180 prices again, which may be never, but in any case, bitcoin will survive. Why? Because it is peer to peer, there is no one place that it can be destroyed. That which does not destroy us makes us a bit stronger.
If BTC is still "here in a month" then it must be the real deal.
/sarc.
"then it must be the real deal."
Yup, just to prove it, head down to any local downtown corner and buy some BitPussy with it.
and yet naysayers will declare it DEAD based on one a couple of days of volatility that still see it valued at multiples of what it was weeks ago
very convenient for confirmation bias
Some motivational music: http://youtu.be/ZBR2G-iI3-I
( i hope you strike it rich, most of the time when people hit the jackpot they like to spend it, :) )
Hope you do
Good for the economy ( hence all of us).
I live frugally. Rich or poor I will never buy a rolex.
Yes you do, when a hobo (who does't know shit) tries to sell you a (fuck he know's) rolex and you DO know....
But as a time keeper, call me old fashioned, i'll stick with the sun and the moon.
I would not have the heart to take it from him....unless I knew him to be evil.
And for motivational music, I have the complete works of Mozart and Beethoven.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNQuYPGdqiI
Yummy, thank you!
Paris never gets boring. Mozart's Paris anyway. Give the French one two days.
I take it you bought at $180?
S&P +32 vs Gold. Will it run some more? Compression for fun and profit.
If one were a bankster with lots to hide in these dead banks of evil criminality, and a huge UN agenda behind all this crapaloney, we would cause all kinds of distractions from the real underbelly of agendas that are being pushed through even as this is being written, and now actually implemented in small parts of the American countryside.
Right now, the babylonians are pushing for the "background check" law in Babyloniaville, DC. Just as in this story below, they begin with the smaller groups of innocent people. In lock step same same, this disguise for gun registration is an age old evil agenda in its beginning. Just like Stalin did to confiscate guns later. Here is a live example found today to show how little by little, ANYONE who disagrees with these babylonians and the new communist/nazi/marxist/fascist (all are bankster created) regime will be taken off to the Gulags after the gun confiscations from every American.
Are there any medicinal smokers in Colorado aboard here? Check this out:
http://www.durangoherald.com/article/20130410/NEWS01/130419961/0/News/Gu...
And boy howdy, just you try and stop them all you sheriffs.
http://www.conservative-daily.com/2013/04/03/federal-agents-preparing-to...
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/crime/item/15024-furor-over-colorad...
This is bad, really bad because this was signed by that governor last monday.
Template for America-The new UN Gestapo has now been established on the high ground.:
http://www.leg.state.co.us/clics/clics2013a/csl.nsf/billcontainers/79D91...$FILE/013_enr.pdf
Ahhh, the "Great Rotation" is now in full swing!
Out of BitCoin and into the (nearly topped out) equities market for the MoMo's?
If I sell my gold to buy Bitcoins is that like committing adultery? Will the Golden Calf God forgive me?
Blasphemy, or something.
Anyway go wash your mouth....
So you are prepared to eat the real thing.
I pads
Riding the tail end,
Blue Marble
Smartest Monkey's
GO OUT THERE
(piramids don't suit you)
STOP FUCKING WITH YOUR HOME (PLANET)
nah
Silicon tits BABY
Grow up,
Big SandBox out there, no need to fight, just play......
UNIVERSE
Advocating humanity....
Look kids, you came on here claiming, quite naively, that bitcoin was going to take the world by storm. That it would destroy bankers and states. Now we know better, don't we, kids? There's a flaw in bitcoin that effects all currencies that try to compete with the $ (including Au), and it cannot be fixed as long as the FED can print unlimited $$$. And maybe not even then.
Wow.
thank god you're not a doctor...you'd be declaring your patients DOA and shipping them off to the morgue everytime their excersizing heart rate settled back to their resting rate.
Dude, the "patient" will be passing it's resting rate on it's way to it's support level of $0. I declared the patient DOA, because I saw Dr. Bernanke administer a "hot shot" to the patient. I don't need to see a corpse to make a diagnosis in this instance. I am familiar with Dr. Bernanke's "work", even if you are not.
A little advice: when Dr. Bernanke offers you a hit of vitamin B-12, think it over.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/06/20/so-thats-the-end-of-bitcoin-then/
If that "article" should convince anyone of anything....it's that you cannot believe what Forbes tells you.
Luckily I sold the fuck-a-bit coin 2 weeks ago before those problems appeared :O