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Who Goes Next: Portugal Or Slovenia - The Forensic Take
The troubles in Cyprus have set off a new examination of the health of the eurozone, with a particular focus on which country might be next in line for a bailout and the extent to which shareholders and depositors will take losses when banks fail (bail-ins). As UK think-tank, OpenEurope notes, much of the attention has settled on two countries. Portugal, which has been propelled back into the headlines, with the country’s constitutional court recently ruling against some of the government’s EU-mandated budget cuts. Secondly, Slovenia, which is facing a massive banking crisis, in turn providing another potential testing ground for the eurozone’s vaguely defined ‘bail-in’ plans. OpenEurope provides a quick run-down of the key points to watch in each country.
Portugal
- Domestic demand, government spending and investment are contracting sharply, leaving the country heavily reliant on uncertain export growth to drive the economy.
- By cutting wages and costs at home (internal devaluation), Portugal has in recent years improved its level of competitiveness in the eurozone relative to Germany. However, this trend actually started to reverse sharply in 2012, meaning that the divergence between countries such as Portugal and Germany has begun growing again – exactly the sort of imbalance the eurozone is seeking to close.
- In its austerity efforts, Portugal is now coming up against serious political and constitutional limits. For the second time, the country’s constitutional court has ruled against public sector wage cuts – a key plank in the country’s EU-mandated austerity plan – while the previous political consensus in the parliament for austerity has evaporated.
- In combination, it will be increasingly difficult for Portugal to sell austerity at home and consequently to negotiate its bailout terms with creditor countries abroad.
- Portugal may well need some further financial assistance before long. It is unlikely to take the form of a full second bailout, but could involve use of the ECB’s OMT, assuming Portugal can return to the markets fully beforehand (even briefly).
Slovenia
- Slovenia is not Cyprus – in fact it is much more like Spain. Its banks are significantly undercapitalised with toxic loans now standing at 18% of GDP. Banks only have provisions to cover less than half the potential losses resulting from these loans.
- At the same time, a heavily indebted private sector is now desperately trying to get debt off its books, which alongside continued austerity and lack of investment, have caused growth to plummet.
- Though a full bailout is unlikely, the country could soon need an EU rescue package worth between €1 billion and €4 billion (between 3% and 11% of GDP) to help restructure the country’s bust and mismanaged banks.
- Such a plan is likely to include losses for shareholder (bail-ins) but, unlike in Cyprus, it may not hit large (uninsured) depositors and there will be no attempt whatsoever at taxing smaller (insured) depositors.
Full report below:
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Dear Forum,
You shouldn’t worry about the economy that much. I used to be scared to death to shit at school back in elementary school because teachers would take their whole class on a bathroom break and if anyone was shitting then the whole class would form a line and peek through the cracks in the door to see who's shitting and then laugh at you and spread it around school. One time my class was in the bathroom and kids started to form that line and the kid in the shitter stuck his dick through the crack in the stall and started barking at us so we wouldn't go look at his face. needless to say, we never found out who was taking a shit at school that day.
It also sucked because the shiting kids at my school would have like an internal clock that would go off if you left the room for too long to use the bathroom and then they would accuse you of taking a shit. so my trick was to sign out to go to the bathroom and then i would walk VERY VERY slowly out the door and stop and look around a little bit then VERY VERY slowly start heading towards the bathroom making sure that everyone saw how slow i was moving. then i would HAUL ASS to the bathroom and shit my brains out and wipe super fast then i would BOOK ASS back to the room and right before getting to the door way i had to walk REALLY REALLY slow and stop at the door and look around again and slowly walk in and sign out my name because i knew everyones clocks were going off alerting them that i was probably taking a shit but once they saw that i was dilly dallying they would brush it off as someone just wasting time..... not taking a shit. rough times in elementary school i tell ya, but im still here today which means i survived it, so will Europe.
Ever thought about taking a shit before you got on the short bus in the morning?
I never thought of that, but I thought that Europe was fixed.
Do any of you comrades think that E-Currencies (Bitcoin) are the future?? Like the biggest fuck you to the Rothschilds!
E-Coins
Come to think about it, if he dilly dallied about like that for so long doing the "I'm not taking a shit." thing, what'd he do for his "I'm not jerking off in the stalls." thing?
Or this could be the biggest shit show because DC will try to get their hands on it and then everything will be traceable... Fuck.
Dear Slovenians and Portuguese;
Take your money out of your banks, and buy gold and silver. I know its obvious, but for some reason, people still dont do it.
Academic political progressives like Argentina's Kirchner despise gold, because its rising price is a big bright shiny light on how stupid their theories are, and how catastrophic their policies are.
Like Rick Rule said, ''for Venuzuelans and Argentinians who had put their savings in gold, the devaluations were a curious, interesting piece of news, but not something that effected them''.
My wife is a portugee (hairless variety)and it is my belief, from first hand experience, that they (hairless portugees) don't got no money in the banks, cause they ain't got no money, period...
Hulk, I am so glad that you mentioned hairless.
I'd been concerned for quite some time heretofore.
Well, I have seen it written here in these very same ZH pages that Portugese women are hairy. Well sir, I am here to tell you that that is certainly not the case for me...
Feijoada Bitches ! Its whats for dinner !!!
I don't know but that Einstein fellow was pretty smart,
"I do not know with what weapons World War 3 will be fought, but World War 4 will be fought with sticks and stones."
Does that answer your bitcoin question?
Einstein was mildly autistic meaning his view of the world was askew. I wouldn't take what he had to say too seriously unless you are a physicist.
...astounding
Sounds like Einstein wasn't really that smart after all. I mean, if everyone is reduced to sticks and stones, how the hell would they arrange a global war?
No.
other questions?
The Bitcoin was a trap to lure large capital into the swindel of money laundring and getting their money out of the banks.
It worked and small flies also got caught in the trap.
But they can always try again by picking the right pinksheet that will be pumped.
A bit like hotel california, buy 1000 bitcoins for $6.50 in 2011 but when you try to cash last week it's 100bitcoin/1000 dollar a day limit...
Maybe i'm wrong and i'm sure some people made a shitload (good for you) but sustainable, ?
Hopefully, somewhere along the line, there will be a bigger sucker to take those nonexistent "coins" in exchange for something actually real and worthy...
Do any of you comrades think that E-Currencies (Bitcoin) are the future?? Like the biggest fuck you to the Rothschilds!
Yes I do, it will be the ULTIMATE control over most of the western world.
Cept the name will be, BamaCoin.
Neutered?
Nah, there is this +10000 ton gold* thingy....
*greedy hand are greedy
Perhaps he was trying to say that we are all on this bus together, and Keanu Reeves is driving and if....
O crap, http://www.jonhs.com/mugshots/reeves.htm
(The police arrested Keanu Reeves in 1993 for drunk driving)
I was visiting some friends at SUNY Buffalo years ago and we were at some crazy bar and I had to take a piss. The urinals were 4-5 people deep and I was on line when my buddy walked in. He sees me on line and decides it's quicker wait outside the stall. He stands there waiting...and waiting. Eventually it's my turn and I piss and as I am walking away I tell my drunk ass buddy that he is going to be there all night because someone is obviously bombing out.
He wakes out of his drunken coma and gets furious cause he has to piss really bad. He yells "No way there's someone in there taking a shit!!!!" and kicks the stall door, which breaks off and falls onto some poor unsuspecting dude who was obviously embarrassed to have to take a dump at that bar at that time.....but now he's sitting there with a stall door leaning on him and about 50 people staring and laughing their ass off at him. I walked out and pretty much forgot the whole thing within about 5 minutes. But that guy, wherever he is, will never shit in public again.
That's my shit story.
he shuld have pissed in the sink
A few people informed him of that option post door kicking.
I once pissed in the sink at a Hardee's/Carl's Jr.
Wasn't even a line. Just seemed like the thing to do at the time.
U BUFF!! That's what I'm talking about! Love it. If you ain't using the sinks, you ain't got to piss bad enough!
Slovenia is next and then it will be Luxembourgh.
so when they foreclosed on your house and your fannie mae stock went to zero and you lost your job...how did that work out?
he took another loan to buy bitcoins to get it all back...
No wonder your mommy keeps you in the basement now....now get back to your leggos
When you take your shit.... do you sometimes see a hole in the shitter wall? And does some dude stick his dig in the hole? And do you blow him?
The bitcoin life was better.
Keep trying, don't force the muse.
Forum reader
Shit, I had Luxemburg out in the next round. There goes the fucking bracket again.
There's always a chance the next country to shit its pants will be an unexpected one, sitting quietly off to the side, rather than the two countries voted most likely.
Now go back and wash your hands, asshole.
A_Dog, that was a really, really good story.
A little history for context:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/erinchack/shtting-into-toilets-a-complete-history
MESSAGE TO THE POWERS THAT ARE:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EK6aNwkFTI
Is the situation in US any better?
Country bankrupt, 50 M on foodstamps and now this:
US: New Tax On Rain
US state of Maryland:
A controversial new tax for the amount of rain that falls on homes has been imposed by an environmentally-friendly governor.
http://homment.com/rein-tax-us
The carbon tax will be imposed on human beath in the end.
The statist MF's know no bounds.
...only when you breathe out.
Next is sun tax and window tax.
I swear, this really is gonna wind up with heads on sticks if too many more people figure this shit out....
This is for you Knuks.http://medieval-castles.org/index.php?cat=31
Oh my...
Sorry i had to downvote you, MSM make sure that it don't happen.
When this shit blows.................nothing we have ever seen on this planet, (un) human wise.
I can't wait for the carnage.
no one ever talks about net international investment position or stock market indexes.. Cyprus saw their stock market down from 5500 to just 100 .. Slovenia's is down some 70% from 5 years ago.
Also, both countries are heavity foreign owned ... but not even as much as portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece..
US net internatinoal investment position is -$4 trillion .. about 25% of GDP. We own $16 trillion of assets overseas.. foreigners own $20 trillion of our assets for example.
I keep praying the next one will be France. We all know they are broke.
Oil will be next for a bailout http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1365710400000&chddm=1682&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:SPY&cmptdms=0&q=NYSEARCA:USO&&fct=big&ei=PQFnUaieN6bp0gHUUg
This is amusing to. http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1365710400000&chddm=777&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:SPY;NYSEARCA:USO&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSEARCA:UNG&&fct=big&ei=8AFnUdjxFurN0AH89gE
But why France??
What did we do for you to wish something that bad to us? WHY?
It will be swell if Portugal can go back to the debt markets and start borrowing more money to fix its debt problems without having to borrow and go in more debt from the EU thus fixing its debt problem with more debt. It's a tried and true model practiced by every nation on earth so ya know.
Who Goes Next: Portugal or Slovenia?
Who's got more gold?
Bingo
Cyprus provides installment #1 of German repatriations
Who be number 2?
A la Libya and Chavez...
Don't forget, kiddies, it's all bout the gold!
PS and no smart ass comments about oil as its already known a Black Gold. Gotcha!
WTF is "slovenia"? Some kind of new VD?
Worse than the herp, dude.
I'm listening to some CNBC meathead in the backround telling me that I need to buy General Mills because "as the world gets richer, people want to eat more". They really have gotten that fucking retarded.
Hah ha ha ha ha ha
In most the world they're gonna be eating each-other.
Say, what ever happened to that Nork rocket-ship?
It got sold to Carnival along with the crew for some bitcoinz.
Reggie Middleton thinks Ireland
Non!sense article! - France is next. Pax
Nah...
Nobody wants French gold because of the body odor and hairy armpits
Zzzzee Germans do....
France and Italy are the "whales" they're looking to ultimately slaughter. Portugal is relatively easier due to their small population and very high % of reserves in gold.
If the next ones are France and Italy, it would mean that Germany's turn is not too far off...Never ever forget that
Slovakia has some production, and being from Soviet block countries people know that you can't rely on government to provide you with anything. So they will survive, 1/2 of families in Eastern block countries still conserve cucumbers for their family themselves, and spend a lot of time in forest in summer, gathering berries and mushrooms for winter period. Also period of no salaries when you got paid in production, and had to barter with others for necessities.
Portugal on other hand is softy, never experienced any Soviet oppression and famine. They will fold under pressure quickly.
Poetic injustice,
I spend first 12 years of my life in central Europe; a couple stone throws away from East Prussia and wolf' lair. All summer long wild berries and mushrooms. Raspberries before
the first frost. A kid can fend of for himself.
Most small town and villages have potato(s). Lasts thru out the whole winter. Major cities might have problems, but most have connection to country side.
Than there is sauerkraut; still quite healthty.
Countries that have tough winter have to be ready or you die. It's the southern countries that don't bother to prepare.
You do realize that Slovakia and Slovenia are two completely different countries, right?
Wow that's too complicated. They should just unify and become Slovland.
While we are on shit analogies, think of Europe as one big fat coiled shit ..... that is circling the bowl.
I'd go for Spain...or Greece again, now that Cyprus is fixed and all...
Slovenia
Doesn't matter which is next....the serious question is "Will the Cyprus templaye be applied?"
If it is then we may see 'bank holidays' throughout Euroland as depositers realize that Cyprus was not an anomolay.
The answer is:
D) All of the above
To 'Poetic injustice': Portugal is 80 plus % self sufficient in food. It would be 100% but the third genertaion post the dictator have forgotten how to live the rewarding peasant life on 5 acres. Vast amounts of land lie uncultivated.
That sounds slightly better, how much of those 80% are cultivated using tractors? Because fuel will be really scarce and possible that a lot of horses will be needed for plow. Yes, newest generation of up to 20 have forgotten that too in Eastern Europe, I am slightly older and I do enjoy hunting for mushrooms so much. Not that it is energy positive, but healthy and get some backup for winter.
Have you lived with rationing, like 1 kilo of sugar per person/month, 1 block of cigarettes for month?
BOTH AT THE SAME TIME!!!
A DUO DEFAULT!! HOW COOL WOULD THAT BE HE?!?!
The banking model calls for making as many loans as possible first, then worrying about reserves later. Reserves can be obtained from ECB or the FED who create reserves out of thin air. Why does this model not work?
And yet the Euro is up today. Again. Mind boggling why anyone would buy a Euro or a European bond. Or any government's bond for that matter.
Borrow in Yen, Buy in Euro.
After all the crap the EU has pulled, you can be rest assured that the Germans won't kill the euro before other currencies from around the world bite the dust.
Pick a currency.
NO DOUBT Belgium AFTER Slovenia; I say NO DOUBT. Thinking of moving to another country. All suggestions are welcome. Please do NOT suggest any countries led by socialist government. THANKS.
welll... like the crap that's happening here in Belgium... I sometimes feel it's actually happening.
industry collapsed these last few months, unemployment is going up, and people are just all looking depressed.
Tomorrow will be a big day for me...
My businesscel could be declared bankrupt... it's freaking me out right now...
Of course, just in these recent days even MainStreamMedia reports about it. I already wondered why it took so long.. Many examples to give..
But hey, what am I worrying about, let's pay of loan #nbr 1.000.000 with loan #nbr 1.000.001 and we'll be safe again for some few years. Ponzi scheme to infiniti it seems;
grtz
Oh, by the way. NEWSFLASH from the goldonomic website. People are waking up. SQUEEZE!
Maybe we did not pay enough attention to the news we published a couple of days ago, but here you have it again: 30% of CNT Silver Inventories Withdrawn from COMEX Vaults in 2 Days!
Similar story and different figures for Gold. Over the last 90 days without any announcement, stocks of gold held at Comex warehouses plunged by the largest figure ever on record during a single quarter since eligible record keeping began in 2001 (roughly the beginning of the bull market). Nearly 2 million oz.’s of gold (roughly $3,000,000,000 dollars) are being removed from the warehouses.
The boys at OpenEurope in London obviously have never set foot on the ground to get to the bottom of what was/is really going on. In the case of Slovenia, where I still have quality contacts, here is the feedback I got:
…"the problem in our country is corruption and ‘clientelism’, which is now spread throughout government corporations and banks (as a result of bad policies). Even though the national Debt/GDP was not the problem, we now have an economic and political Elite, which has used its position to steal national wealth for themselves -- via 'privatization'.
With the 'help' of the ECB (EU Central Bank) and certain foreign investment (predatory) banks, we are now entering the last phase of 'privatization', i.e. wealth transfer. Here the process is to extract wealth from the bank and energy sectors, as these are the last sectors that still have cash. The other sectors have been plundered and bankrupted in prior waves of 'privatization', all in the "national interest" of course.
Thus certain managers have been able to 'buy' controlling shares via leveraged purchases and financial methods that did not involve their own money. They were somehow able to make share purchases with 100% borrowed money from the banks. This is not explained by incompetence but by an inside job.
When the crisis of toxic assets started abroad, the manipulated and overvalued stock market here tanked, and the banks that were on the hook were not able to cover margins. We thus have many companies that are otherwise well run and were profitable, but are now in dire straits, thanks to this culture of casino capitalism we imported from our ‘role models’. Rather than saving the banks, the right thing to do would be to reverse these fraudulent acquisitions of this Elite. But that will never happen, and the side shows will continue."
***
Here ya go ZH, and London lads! Now I ask you: Is this not a recurring theme of greed & corruption in high places in the US and other EU countries? Slovenia is only the latest place to which disease has propagated: to the small, weak, easy marks.
Banana Republicanism - the economic model for the 21st Century.
Hey Kirk,
can you ask your contacts how they feel about Americans? Never been to Slovenia, but I'm guessing it's a relatively pro-US place?
Five or ten years ago, I was toying with the idea of getting a vacation property there. Mountains, beaches and even a pretty decent city all in a conveniently small country! I found prices way too high back then, but post the coming crash might be a better buying opportunity.
I guess German is the dominant second language? It was in Prague when I was there a while ago (lots of German tourists and investment). Will English suffice in Slovenia, at least on the coast and in the cities?
They frikkin LOVE Americans! German used to be the dominant second language, but now English is. They're in NATO. Street sings on major routes are bilingual: Slovenian and English. On the coast or tourist areas they also speak Italian, maybe French.
They like to work, but love to eat and drink, and drive German cars. They think that American men make good husbands, but that American women are too bossy and high maintenance.
Too bad they don't hate the US government.
Ireland.
And here is info from last year, showing the extent of the corruption and devious collaboration between the Catholic Church in Slovenia, and its 'Conservative' (old guard) politicians:
..."in one of its first moves when Slovenia finally got a conservative government, they gave back to the Church all its former properties and estates that were nationalized under Tito in 1945, thus making it the largest private landowner in Slovenia. Overnight. Guess whom the Church supported in the prior election?"
.
Ours is not only a struggle against corruption, but -- more fundamentally -- against an unbelievably well organized, funded and ancient culture of Feudalism and secret societies whose objectives and methods won't have to be 'secret' much longer, given the world situation and pace of events. Here is JFK's famous speech on secret societies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhZk8ronces