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The Complete Chartpack Of The Top Global Themes For The Next Five Years
The investment environment is changing at a rate that's representative of global economic imbalances, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. We believe this decade will continue to witness greatly increased volatility and instability in the economies of the world and the global financial system. Very few past models are still valid (and most have been proved 'empirically' in real-time to be entirely fallacious). Such a situation has contributed to the extreme uncertainty that currently prevails. Our guiding principle is to help investors understand and navigate through all the complexities of an unstable, inflation-prone world. The following ten themes will be key drivers of financial market performance over the next 1 to 5 years.
- Theme 1 WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT - The Long-Wave decline
- Theme 2 BUBBLE IN SAFETY - The US bond market top
- Theme 3 LORDS OF FINANCE - The coming loss of central bank indpendence
- Theme 4 SUPER SAD TRUE LOVE STORY - Europe (Break-up)
- Theme 5 MRS. WATANABE - Japan
- Theme 6 RICHISTAN - The rise of the Asian consumer
- Theme 7 DEVIL TAKE THE HINDMOST - Currency games
- Theme 8 SUPERMONEY - Precious metals
- Theme 9 THE RICHEST MAN IN BABYLON - Iraq
- Theme 10 WHEN MONEY DIES - The great social disorder
World at a glance
In the investment world, anyone who foresees and understands the trends, who is openminded, and who keeps emotions at bay,
The structural backdrop for a global macro strategy
- Developed economy governments are insolvent
- The process of deleveraging and global rebalancing is underway
- Outsized dislocations from “non-economic” policy actions
- The loss of central bank independence with likely unintended consequences
- Ongoing battle between deflation and reflationary forces
- Shorter and more volatile economic cycles that are globally synchronized
- Drop of confidence in policymakers, institutions and the “system” at large
- Increased risk of geopolitical tensions and social conflict
- Market prices only reflect fair value by accident and in passing
"The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelope our future." - Lord Keynes
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95 pages of homework on a Friday night???????????????
+1
You cracked me up on that one because that was the first thing I thought as well.
Hope all is well J.
That nibbling you feel on your legs is the gullet of humanity consuming - no, gorging on itself as this little drama enters post-production.
Let me save you the trouble of reading 95 pages of bullshit.
The entire planet will become a prison labor death camp and the sheeple will not even notice.
There, now lets have a cold beer.
Just for that, if I were there, first round would be on me for sure.
Thats about the best cliff notes version I have seen yet for the next few decades.
I enjoyed it, a short 95 pages, worth the read.
I give it two thumbs up just for how many times they tie things back to Kondratiev.
I am going to read it, but cannot believe that war is not one of the theme's.
Not a theme but noted relating to risk on page 80 and 81.
War is one of the themes.
They quote Will Durant who points out that humanity has been at war 97% of the time for recorded history.
I should have skipped to the comments page and read the above Cliff notes however.
I didn't know cold beer was on offer down here!
I also didn't realize that the whole 95 pages was just an advertisment for a fund,...
I'm in an odd spot. ZH keeps me sane, but all others around me are convinced I'm insane. Many of your posts are an anchor in the storm. Thanks for hanging here.
And the gubmint will label you insane. Good luck with that one. There's no "sane" stamp at the local nuthouse:
Homer comes home and asks her to fill out the personality test, but she
insists it's something only he can do. He goes to Lisa's room...
Homer: Lisa, you like homework. Could you fill out this form for me?
Lisa: Well, all right. If you'll listen to the poem I just wrote.
Homer: D'oh!! Oh, okay.
Lisa: Meditations on Turning Eight, by Lisa Simpson.
[reads]
I had a cat named Snowball --
She died! She died!
Mom said she was sleeping --
She lied! She lied!
Why oh why is my cat dead?
Couldn't that Chrysler hit me instead?
[next verse]
I had a hamster named Snuffy --
He died...
Homer: [takes his form] No deal.
-- Death and Transfiguration, ``Stark Raving Dad''
Homer goes to Bart...
Bart: Dad, maybe you should do this.
Homer: Son, it's no different than the time I let you vote for me.
Remember that absentee ballot?
-- On filling out a psychiatric evaluation form, ``Stark Raving Dad''
Homer watches television...
Announcer: Our $50,000 home video finalists are...
Man Breaking Hip. [sound of bowling pins, followed by a scream]
Homer: [chuckles]
Announcer: [chuckles]
Dog On Fire.
[doing a doggy voice]
Ruff, anybody order a hot dog?
Homer: [laughs uproariously] Oh, look at him!
Announcer: And finally, Baby With a Nail Gun. [kachunk]
Homer: Aww....
Announcer: Okay, it's time to cast your votes now!
Homer: Dog On Fire! Dog On Fire!
-- America's Stupidest Home Videos, ``Stark Raving Dad''
Bart: Hey, Dad, do you hear voices?
Homer: [angrily] Yes, I'm hearing one right now while I'm trying to watch TV...
Bart: [checks] Yes. Are you quick to anger?
Homer: Bart! Shut up or I'll shut you up!
Bart: [checks] Yes. Do you wet your pants? Well, even the best of us
has an occasional accident.
[checks the remainder of the form `Yes' all the way down]
-- Filling out a psychiatric evaluation form, ``Stark Raving Dad''
The next day, Homer asks, ``So, did I pass?'' The answer is, ``No.''
Careful, men. He wets his pants.
-- Smithers' instructions to security, ``Stark Raving Dad''
He's carted off to the New Bedlam Rest Home for the Emotionally Interesting
and given a Rorschach test.
Doctor: [shows Homer an inkblot]
Homer: Eh, the devil with his fly open.
Doctor: Right. [shows another]
Homer: Uh, that's a spill on the floor with bugs going after it. Uh, they're
going to eat it.
Doctor: Good. [shows another, which looks like Bart]
Homer: THE BOY!!!!!! [restrained by two orderlies]
-- I'm perfectly normal, really... ``Stark Raving Dad''
Homer: This isn't fair! How can you tell who's sane and who's insane?
Doctor: Well, we have a very simple method.
[stamps his hand, `INSANE']
Whoever has that stamp on his hand is insane.
-- Does that mean he can come back for free? ``Stark Raving Dad''
They ``put him in with the big white guy who thinks he's the
little black guy.''
Homer: Who are you?
Man: Hi, I'm Michael Jackson, from The Jacksons.
Homer: I'm Homer Simpson, from The Simpsons...
-- Homer meets his cell-mate at the asylum, ``Stark Raving Dad''
[A little meta-humor for your enjoyment.]
You are insane.
Everything is fine.
Baseball is starting up, Chevy's, Apple Pies, T.V. sitcoms and goofy commercials, boobs, bodybuilder muscles and four hour erections for 70 year old's, sexting 12 year old's, corn, hot dogs, corn dogs, diet soda, testosterone underarm gels, shake weights, and markets at all time highs.
Everything is fine.
"Feedin' and breedin' and pumpin' gas...cheeseburger...cheeseburger...do it again!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bp2tQ75pTD0
We have reached "that point" haven't we Eb?
My version is: "I'm in an odd spot. ZH keeps me sane, but all others around me are convinced I'm ADDICTED. They hope this will pass. Is there a ZH Addiction group? Before I totally neglect my family and job?"
Here is a little easy listening music to go along in the background of the Friday Night Hee-Haw.:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgCpa1RlSdQ
Seriously, three freakin' hours on top of the 95 pages!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here's a sad one for ya from Shakey:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erg04euBu70
Here's the antidote from Tom:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xhsbDY5laH0
The dog ate my homework, or that will be my story monday :-)
'95 pages of homework on a Friday night??' ... yea, but, you have to admit... we love this homework !! this is great education.
Always great to see you popping in LynnyB. Best education of my life.
Silver manipulated below 26 in the aftermarket. I'm looking forward to a Sunday night raid.
Me too! I hope they drop the price down really far, next time!
@ Ben Bernanke:
No matter how far you clowns drop the price, I still won't be investing in Bernankecoin, any more than I would invest in Bitcoin.
Both Bernankecoin and Bitcoin are equally worthless.
well we all know what they can be worth, without margin increases
Stay in the present. Keep your feet well grounded. Appreciate what has been given this day.
I noticed today that Netlix added Adventure Time, so I guess I'm thankful for that. Laughter is healthy.
http://www.cartoonnetwork.com/tv_shows/adventuretime/index.html
That's great, but...
Where's Flapjack?
Best cartoon ever, and it's like it's vanished from the face of the Earth. Can't be coincidence.
Great toons. Amazing world of gumball is another one. I guess I am lucky that my kids have the same warped sense of humor that I do. We laugh together. My wife on the other I am sure thinks we are idiots.
Regular show is pretty good too.
Theme 11 THE HUNGER GAMES – Food shortages and the rise of cannibalism
<== Jews... 1% of world's population... continue to rape & pillage [the world], due to an illicit paper money banking cartel by which they counterfeit money for themselves...
<== Jews, out of shame & remorse, begin to withdrawl their iron fisted occupation in Palestinian territories
Figured that you could appreciate this:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/04/12/controlled-opposition/
+1
Excellent link Seer, thanks.
This bit right from Atzmon nails my personal problems with 'the Joos' here:
Hello Mr/Mrs/Ms/Miss Jew, guess what...we're all humans and you really are not that special or 'chosen,' deal with it and move on. Neither am I nor my kith and kin more special or 'chosen' than you and yours. Capiche?
I'll have to look for Sand's new book that Atzmon mentions, as I really enjoy(ed) his Invention Of The Jewish People
edit: btw, the idea of 'American Exceptionalism' has become just as offputting to me as Jewish Exceptionalism(or 'choseness').
Fuck Israel!!! Is it just me? How the fuck does Israel dictate American policy?
because they were the first to grab the fiat market?
Because they are organized. This is what I have been trying to tell you. Number of times since 1776 that the US govt has backed down from people with guns: 0 . Number of times they have backed down from organized groups of voters, or political contributors, 1000 times a day.
10,000 men or 1,000 women properly organized can make them do anything.
Please stop. You're boring.
Put another way... I don't know what -- if anything -- he does for a living, but there are damn few companies or organizations where only complaining (and about the same damn thing!) is seen as a virtue or a pay-worthy activity. They all want solutions along with the 'analysis'.
I have yet to see him offer a constructive and workable solution to "the problem". We therefore have to conclude that he is:
a. Pathological. A fanatic, zealot or damaged goods.
b. Paid agent provocateur (to distract, dilute, discredit ZH, or flush out other sympathizers)
c. 'Other'
If he isn't going to provide a viable solution, 'FS' needs new material, a new handler, or a long rest.
An economic catachism of useful information. Plug this into a DSGE engine with FIAT algos (because they aren't going to go away, and as much as we are hoping to use our guns to blow the craniums off of liberal sicophants turned zombie, it isn't happening) and we've got a nice little probablity calculator for fiscal climate.
"If you're buying futures, you're buying nothing."
So, there's no conservative sycophants turned zombie? Good to know...
Since this is a paid puff piece, I'll be nice:
#11 Big Data (both long and deep) and building weak AI. [Google via Slate; gross stupidity in reporting, but I see it's time to sell the spin; go GREP some comments on CERN + SC networks I've made in the past]
If the gamble works, planned economies stop being so lossey; if it doesn't, you've got a dysfunctional system that is in a feed-back loop [current status].
#12 Biotech / ecological modelling (and most importantly, ecological understanding) finally matures.
20th Century binary models ("the mind is a computer" or "the market can be modeled like X", or "rational actors") dissolves as people start treating markets and individuals as ecological entities within nested systems (fractal, I apologize for the easy joke). Yes, that means realising that gut fauna in prisoner populations is just an important market as click through on adverts while it's sunny outside. With one, a diet change gets you 20-40% less aggression; the other you're tying Real WorldTM data into your marketing structure. The market stops being such an artificial and bad caricature of actual desire, and can stop using the heroin / shock n awe methodology so prevalent today. [Looking at you, Madison Avenue; time to step up, or get algo'd out].
Combined you'll be able to influence & grow organic structures without mucking it up so badly [SF: slime mold solving Traveling salesman problem, or how not to fuck up viral marketing on Reddit *cough* Oblivion PR department *cough* etc].
What's actually going to happen is probably a lot more depressing[1], but hey. Friday night humour.
[1]Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
I ignore anyone with "Advisors" in their name.
I make it a point to respond (somewhat seriously) to people paying for content; if nothing else, it's merely good manners to the Tylers allowing me to post here. Plus, if I say something really dumb, they get 300+ comments and massive click-through and their advertising guru looks good.
"Derp! Derp! Ayn Rand was the Anti-Christ!" or, more interestingly: "Anyone noticed how BioShock Infinite is completing a social commentary on America, and designed to both ridicule but also remove "regressive" elements from your society, through ultra-violence?"
...There's always a lighthouse, there's always a man, there's always a city (see poem above; reading yesterday included synchronicity, Vladimir Nabokov in the New Yorker and others. We'll probably dig out the classic Capitalism and Schizophrenia soon enough).
Zero Hedge has received no compensation for presenting this report and its authors are not aware of its posting here: if it had, it would be noted.
It has been posted here to provide information to our readers.
Those readers who are confident they know more than what is contained in said presentation are invited to move on as they will hardly learn anything new or incremental on Zero Hedge.
My apologies, I assumed this was not a public document ~ all the grey in the front page.
Which means, of course, I've now got to know why you're posting this now, and who they are, and more importantly, who their clients are. Sukudo indeed.
[Edit: quite quickly into some ME murkiness, and he's not updated his Linkedin profile from a previous employer ~ Not my thing, I'll let those more interested in that hell hole work out the angles]
Nice apology.
(Beta as fuck)
Rule #7 of Fight Club. I've already tussled with the ultimate Alpha, and this isn't my first incarnation. Make of that what you will.
Although I appreciate the irony of the Avatar given Tom Cruise is the ultimate in Gay Memes, the author of the piece might be in deep fucking water on Monday, given his LinkedIn profile and various other snifters sent out; I've no skin in this, and law in the desert can be quite brutal ("the water belongs to the tribe"). He's offering serious wedge while listing other things, and so on. If you're inviting me to a crucifixion, I'd prefer to know in advance.
You, on the other hand: quite happy to tussle. We've already got Tom Cruises' weakest paradoy of male "bro-ness", so, I'm guessing you're fronting for being on this list.
"Alpha as fuck, Cindy, Alpha as fuck".
+1 for take-down and Dune reference
Dude's one couch-jump short of Xenu.
Am I correct to assume it's just your opinion, not advice?
- delete double post -
Let's see, it's been 5 years already and my guess is most everyone here has stayed in cash, bought gold, and played by the bitcoin saga. How's that all working out for ya?
Newsflash, when the hedgies are getting annihilated in the currency and pm markets, they'll be too busy meeting margin calls and covering their JPY shorts to stay solvent, all part of the central banks' plan, to get the Kyle Basses of the world out of theirs.
Where will we be in 5 years? Who knows but one thing is for sure, the banksters know who's pulling the strings and they'd better meet the objectives of their central bank masters or they are toast.
Bought gold about ~$650, specifically 430GBP. So it's working out quite well, thanks for asking.
Did you happen to miss the ~700 billion bailout for TBTF organisations in the US? What's the number now 4 Trillion?
Did you happen to miss the 1 Trillion GBP the UK government took on to save their banks?
Did you happen to miss the quadrillions the Japanese pumped in to save their zombie banks two decades ago?
Did you happen to miss the transfer of debt from Ireland's banks to it's government?
You missed all of these so you haven't yet figured out who's pulling the strings?
QE in the UK is only at £375 billion unless I've missed something, and the initial bailouts have been brokered back somewhat. Plus, people are feeling guilty enough to hand back knighthoods, which is always good PR.
So, yeah, that's good.
*A wild junker has appeared! I'm guessing they didn't watch the link. Try it, then come back to me with some balls*
''is only at £375 billion''
Come on man, like the 85 billion a month FED figure they throw out, you don't really buy it do you?
Those are just the sanitized figures they let be known and no where near the real ballpark to keep this charade going and the markets doing the impossible again and again on a weekly basis, you are a sucker if you take anything they tell you at face value in this casino market. Hell as much as I respect Kyle Bass and he is brave and will probably be infinitely richer than me if the trillion call pays off I still think he is a bit a sucker trying to call bluffs still, the only smart move seems to be to fold in this poker game now.
Yeah, but it's not a banana. Red Dwarf is a British thing, obviously.
Kat: "Is that what I think it is?"
Lister: "What do you think it is?"
Kat: "A big orange swirly thing in space!"
I won't even tell you the opportunity cost you missed out on, but I will smart ass. Try a 6800% thank you very much. And don't get me started on the hard asset bs, got those too.
If the banks have and are being rescued saving their jobs and independence, why would they dare make things worse and risk everything again? They won't since the central banks are their only pathway to survival.
Hind sight is 20-20 Michelle, so I'm not impressed.
IF the banks make things better, they lose the gravy train.
To me the game really became fucked up the moment 9/11 took hold of the world. Sure things were heating up before that but after that moment in history everything has become so disjointed as to be comical. The next 5 years will be truly messed up. SPIN THE WHEEL JACK.
No mention of Peak Oil in the title = toilet paper.
Also missing demographics.
Peak oil does not = peak energy.
If we store all the PM in Israel (near their nukes in Dimona), then all countries and CB's have an incentive to get along. Especially if we go to the global currency (SDR), and have it PM-backed. No? Maybe it's already WIP, with people who are "doing Gods' work"?
That's how I'd do it, if I were '666': One coin to rule them all, and world peace via all PM in Israel. Hey, Nobel Committee, where's my Peace Prize?
Monty Python: Bring out your dead... --> Bring out your gold...
Future burger flippers of America, UNITE.
What to do if the ignorant dark forces are our leaders?
A very worthwhile read, not as long as it sounds, excellent charts, maps, observations.
The FED is spending Trillions to try and stave off the inevitable Kondratieff Winter the world will suffer.
reading this was a waste of time. sure, some of what they call structural backdrop is well known. the bigger question is how one makes money on it. this is where the publication falls short.......
just saying.......
The eloquent presentation is more about not losing your principal than making gains on your principal.
Guy went to a halloween party with a condom stuck to his nose. Someone asked him what he came as.
Fuck Nose! He said.
Anyone who thinks they know what the future holds is lying to themselves!
Me
I don't believe that global Stock-exchanges represent the Global Economy -
or that global Stock-exchanges ARE the Global Economy !
as some would like us to believe.
they are just gambling casinos supported by investment banks,
leveraged to the max and diluted by ever increasing Debt.
wr;)
The Iraq angle is food for thought.
Especially as quite a few more countries around the globe could well end up similarly situated.
The guy has 8 years experience and a BA in finance from the University of Western Ontario. Plus the fund is audited by Deloitte. I'm all in.
I'm more in the deflationary, we're turning Japanese camp, so don't agree much with this one. I agree with some of the long cycle stuff, but I wouldn't call that Kondratieff waves, as his focus was on industrial cycles, not credit and money.
Rather obvious mistake on the cost of interest. Says that if rates went up to 7%, interest on debt would go up to $2 trillion. For that to be true, outstanding debt would have to be $28.5 trillion. Current cost of interest at ~$450 billion is correct for FY12 but still exaggerated, as it counts interest paid to trust funds, which is not a real cost, and doesn't net interest income earned by the Fed, much of which is interest that Treasury pays to the Fed being refunded right back to Treasury. First half of FY13 actual net interest expenses of the federal government were about $85bn on a bit more than $10tn of debt held outside the federal government and Fed.
Very interesting read - Thank You ZH!