The Complete Chartpack Of The Top Global Themes For The Next Five Years

Tyler Durden's picture

The investment environment is changing at a rate that's representative of global economic imbalances, fund flows, and geopolitical risks. We believe this decade will continue to witness greatly increased volatility and instability in the economies of the world and the global financial system. Very few past models are still valid (and most have been proved 'empirically' in real-time to be entirely fallacious). Such a situation has contributed to the extreme uncertainty that currently prevails. Our guiding principle is to help investors understand and navigate through all the complexities of an unstable, inflation-prone world. The following ten themes will be key drivers of financial market performance over the next 1 to 5 years.

  • Theme 1 WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT - The Long-Wave decline
  • Theme 2 BUBBLE IN SAFETY - The US bond market top
  • Theme 3 LORDS OF FINANCE - The coming loss of central bank indpendence
  • Theme 4 SUPER SAD TRUE LOVE STORY - Europe (Break-up)
  • Theme 5 MRS. WATANABE - Japan
  • Theme 6 RICHISTAN - The rise of the Asian consumer
  • Theme 7 DEVIL TAKE THE HINDMOST - Currency games
  • Theme 8 SUPERMONEY - Precious metals
  • Theme 9 THE RICHEST MAN IN BABYLON - Iraq
  • Theme 10 WHEN MONEY DIES - The great social disorder

World at a glance

In the investment world, anyone who foresees and understands the trends, who is openminded, and who keeps emotions at bay,

The structural backdrop for a global macro strategy

  • Developed economy governments are insolvent
  • The process of deleveraging and global rebalancing is underway
  • Outsized dislocations from “non-economic” policy actions
  • The loss of central bank independence with likely unintended consequences
  • Ongoing battle between deflation and reflationary forces
  • Shorter and more volatile economic cycles that are globally synchronized
  • Drop of confidence in policymakers, institutions and the “system” at large
  • Increased risk of geopolitical tensions and social conflict
  • Market prices only reflect fair value by accident and in passing

"The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelope our future." - Lord Keynes

 

Full presentation below:

Major Themes - TGSF Advisors