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Consumer Confidence Plummets To Nine Month Low, Biggest Miss To Consensus On Record

Tyler Durden's picture


Well if this doesn't send the market into all-time record high territory, nothing ever will: seconds ago the UMich Consumer Confidence plummeted from 78.6 to 72.3, on expectations of an unchanged 78.6 print. This was not only a 9 month low in the index, but more importantly the biggest miss to expectations in recorded history! Both conditions (84.8, Exp 89.5, Last 90.7) and expectations (64.2, Exp.70.0, Last 70.8), imploded, with the current conditions number the worst print since July and posting the biggest drop since August 2011. Surely if retail sales was not a sufficient Conviction Buy signal for the Fed, then Consumer Confidence should send Kevin Henry, who is now mainlining a trail mix cocktail of Redbull, Caffeine and Meth, into F5 overdrive. And if that doesn't do it, the final economic miss of the day, Business Inventories which also missed expectations of a 0.4% print, and dropped from 0.9% to 0.1%, the lowest since September 2011 and biggest miss since September 2012, should certainly cement today's 1600+ S&P close.



with current economic assessment terrible..


and add to that Business Inevntories miss and all things considered - another terrible data day.


Charts: Bloomberg


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Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:05 | 3440514 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Chuck Norris to replace Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman?  Talk about confidence!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:10 | 3440531 CH1
CH1's picture


S&P 10,000!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:11 | 3440543 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture


S&P 1000000000000!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440580 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

The confidence plumetted because the students taking the survey were gloomy from the BitTheDustCoin crash.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:17 | 3440598 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Were the Winklevei included in this survey?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:17 | 3440599 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

market surges on the news

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:23 | 3440631 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Did you expect anything else?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:32 | 3440671 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

Fuck you Obozo!


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:11 | 3440545 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

UMICH is just upset they took Albrecht out and lost the game.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440584 BandGap
BandGap's picture

It was past his bedtime.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:29 | 3441092 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

S&P 10000
McDonald's $1 menu = $20

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:07 | 3441325 rotagen
rotagen's picture

Everything will work out fine, somehow the Sandy Hook actors will take care of this.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:07 | 3440515 BandGap
BandGap's picture

We're setting records all over the place!

Fucking-A, is this a great country or what?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:14 | 3440582 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:20 | 3440608 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Downgrade in sight!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:08 | 3440520 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I'm confident the economy will face plant sooner or later.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440576 BandGap
BandGap's picture

On a long enough timeline everything gets planted.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:18 | 3440600 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

We are currently in a depression which has been papered over with government transfer payments.  In a word, nothing matters. I guess you can call be a nihilist, and I can tell you this, it's fucking exhausting.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:09 | 3440526 AnticipatedResponse
AnticipatedResponse's picture


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:09 | 3440527 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

It has been a long, shitty winter that won't end.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:14 | 3440568 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Amen, brother!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:27 | 3441079 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

Soon to be 'nuclear winter'?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:09 | 3440529 spinone
spinone's picture

If the economy improves, the banks stop getting free money from the Fed. 

Do you think they are going to lift one finger to do anything that improves the economy?  The longer this grinds out, the more free money they get.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:10 | 3440542 CH1
CH1's picture

The banks ARE the Fed.

At least the big ones are.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:09 | 3440530 HD
HD's picture

Consumer confidence only matters when it positive. A dismissed when negative.  Nothing new under the sun today.


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:10 | 3440532 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

There breaks the consumer's back. We shouldn't have talked about it ...

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:11 | 3440537 PUD
PUD's picture


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:09 | 3440539 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Just makes me want to get up and buy, buy, buy!!

More guns & ammo, if I can find any.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:21 | 3440615 BandGap
BandGap's picture

You can at

Fucking 22LR at 3-5X the price it was a year ago. 9mm has at least doubled, too.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:28 | 3440647 Osmium
Osmium's picture

I was shocked to find .223 and 5.56 in stock at my local store.  2 box limit, but I can go back everyday until they are sold out.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:33 | 3440691 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Only stuff I can find is with berdian primer.No limit purchase.

Not reloadable.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:12 | 3440548 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

There's a serial junker on the loose


Edit:  And I preemptively junked myself so fuck you whoever you are

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:13 | 3440569 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

He's on a run today ... all day long ... hope he at least gets a decent pay

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:34 | 3440699 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Prolly a bot.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:25 | 3440637 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

I've noticed, undoubtedly a red team/blue team devotee.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:34 | 3440697 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I junked you because you acknowledged the obvious. And it's a pissed off FRIDAY, man.


Whose the blonde chick hawking t-shirts on this page?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:50 | 3441191 LuckoftheIrish
LuckoftheIrish's picture

That's why I quit HuffPo, besides the abominable content.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:13 | 3440551 Racer
Racer's picture

In the old days this would have sent the Dowplunging 200 points... but it has instead been bounced up by the HFTs... so much for a 'market' that this is for the 0.1%

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:14 | 3440553 e m m
e m m's picture

Just look at this number: 14833.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:23 | 3440622 e m m
e m m's picture

OMG they're such bad boys and bought the dip again. That was super desctructive after the NFP and they're showing us again they're completely feeling the stubbornness of this badass market. Totally rad.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:12 | 3440555 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

Consumer confidence?

I am confident that more credit card offers are headed the consumers' way.  More credit-fueled spending ahead.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:31 | 3440668 toady
toady's picture

I actually received a couple of mortgage letters this month, along with the four or five pre qualified CC's.

I guess all the quality debt slave are used up...

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:33 | 3440690 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

I average around 1 snail-mail debt offer per day. 

The appetite of the enslavers remains rapacious.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:38 | 3440712 MilleniumJane
MilleniumJane's picture

Yep, my husband and I have been getting them regularly every two weeks since last Christmas.  CapitalOne, Visa, MasterCard, AmericanExpress...all get "filed" in our woodstove.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:59 | 3440853 toady
toady's picture

We do the same with the CC offers, but when the wife saw the home equity offers I could see the gears starting to turn behind her eyes ... I hope she doesn't bring up a big, expensive vacation in the next few weeks!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441481 therearetoomany...
therearetoomanyidiots's picture

They must think we're stupid

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:13 | 3440557 HD
HD's picture

Look everyone got a free -1  Krugman's here!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:14 | 3440564 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Things look shity = deflation = gold down

Things look bright = no QE = gold down

Things look so-so = look for yield = gold has none = gold down

No news = why hold gold = gold down

No fundamentals = technicals are valid = chart looks ugly = gold down

not convinced? = Soros sells gold = gold down


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440579 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

It all comes crumbling down = gold up through the roof

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:18 | 3440609 Confundido
Confundido's picture

You will have drowned by then.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:26 | 3440634 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Man, I got a boat!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:21 | 3440617 spinone
spinone's picture

No, gold crashes because weak hands sell for cash.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:51 | 3440781 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

GLD hit it's average daily volume in the first hour of trading, implying a capitulation day (good day to buy).  If it shows strength into the close it's a much safer bet to buy.  JMHO.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440571 CDNX fan
CDNX fan's picture

How's them "stacks" makin' out today? Stackers are getting rubberhosed again today and Jim Sinclair is giving a speech in Toronto - I am wearing a sign that says "I own JPM and am making a fortune!" Trying to be as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:18 | 3440596 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Stackers are getting rubberhosed?

Shit, this is a stackers dream ... cheap PM.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:37 | 3440717 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I've got an erection the size of a small aircraft carrier.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:13 | 3440572 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

so we have 4 economic reports today, and 4 fucking missed miserably, yet this fucking market is barely red and will prob be fucking green as i finish typing this. is this a fucking joke?


if i here anyone on tv talk about earnings, data, any shit fundemental and make it seem like it actually matters, i will fucking punch a whole through my wall. nothing matters obviously, and everything is bullish


heck, north korea nuking the u.s would prob be bullish in this market

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:39 | 3440724 toady
toady's picture

Krugman will say that hole in the wall is bullish.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440583 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

I tell ya this economy is in rough shape.  It fact, it's so bad that..... the dollar stores are now offering layaway services.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:41 | 3440738 toady
toady's picture

I get to respect I tells ya, no respect at all!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:15 | 3440585 Kina
Kina's picture

WHEN is this going to end?

HOW is this going to end?

HOW long can they keep this game going?

Unitl they give themselves power over all 'freedoms', expempt themselves from all laws, moral, ethical and legislated, and primary right to all things.  WHEN all those that matter have themselves protected, when the wages of Americans are that as China, when recourse against any of them is impossible.

Then bit by bit individuals will be bankrupted, their cash confiscated or renedered worthless and all dependent on the state.

Those sitting back waiting to see what happens are swimming into the net. You won't see it until it closes, and you have no way out.


Own the essentials of life, and bullion, coins....keep your secrets. Have a plan.




Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:17 | 3440591 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

A good sign of 'confidence' is going to the malls seeing 'stuff' discounted 90% and no one buying .....I hav enever seen it before....incredible....rakes stuffed with everything ...yes even Thingamajigs! and no one buying.....



Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:18 | 3440592 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

"Well if this doesn't send the market into all-time record high territory, nothing ever will" -- Except maybe North Korea lobbing a couple of nukes into Seoul or Tokyo.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:18 | 3440605 sudzee
sudzee's picture

If the news gets any worse interest rates need to decline significantly.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:21 | 3440618 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Sentiment is going up, not down.


Have to run - appointment with an agent to buy some Detroit real estate.  Great buy opportunity!!!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:23 | 3440625 Confundido
Confundido's picture

The mainstream view again: "...The run of weak economic data reports, which continued last week with the news of an unexpected decline in March retail sales, has led to speculation that the US economy is enduring yet another spring slowdown, mirroring what happened in 2011 and 2012..." 

=Buy the fucking dip!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:22 | 3440627 wisefool
wisefool's picture

The good news is that the IRS authorized facebooks $429 million dollar refund, on one billion in profit for last year.

People can lookup to american companies leading the way to economic recovery. They will re-invest this refund in helping people restore confidence in themselves. I personally like the drunk girls showing cleavage.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:40 | 3440692 wisefool
wisefool's picture

What's with the no counterpoint junk? I also like pictures of nachos.

EDIT: and for the high finance types, the purpose of executive compenation tax subsidies is that they show leadership within the american system of finance, regardless of what industry they are in. Some of the facebook founders have not renounced their citizenship yet. I am personally confident in the future of the brazilian facebook spin off for obvious reasons.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:26 | 3440644 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Consumer confidence down.  Bernanke confidence up.

Party on.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:29 | 3440655 Confundido
Confundido's picture

More mainstream optimism: "...Coming after a weak retail sales report for March, the sharp drop in April's University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to a nine-month low of 72.3, from 78.6, is another sign of a slowdown at the start of the second quarter. We suspect that the decline in the headline index missed out the latest rally in equity prices, which in the case of the S&P 500 index touched a record high, and also the drop in gasoline prices to below $3.70 a gallon. Indeed, the expectations index, which reflects movements in the two prices, fell to a 17-month low of 64.2, from 70.8. At least households 12-month ahead inflation expectations index fell to 3.0%, from 3.2. Meanwhile, the current conditions index also declined to 84.8, from 90.7. Despite the latest drop back in weekly jobless claims, the weakness in the official employment figures appears to have made households less hopeful about their future employment prospects. On the whole, the report appears to be fairly downbeat. But we have been here before. Only last month the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan measure was initially reported to have fallen sharply, only for that decline to be revised into a small rise in the final reading released a couple of weeks later. We suspect that if the same survey was conducted today, the results would be slightly different. The upward trend in equity prices and the steady drop in gasoline prices would push consumer confidence higher..."




Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:58 | 3440684 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

This economy has gotten so bad that....... Kim Jung-un is no longer targeting America with nukes because he believes Bernanke and Obama are doing a much better job of destroying America than he ever could.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:32 | 3440685 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Consumer Confidence down because of the weather.  It snowed and people hate driving in the snow.  


Summer = no snow = buy buy buy.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:40 | 3440727 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

OT: This post has me thinking about money.

If a 100 lb solid gold asteroid survived earth's atmosphere and plunged straight down into the woods in my backyard, 50 yards from the house...

1) would my home be destroyed?

2) would the gold be retrievable?

3) if so, would it be mine?

4) if so, would it ruin me?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:42 | 3440741 B2u
B2u's picture

New movie is coming out...about how the dead market is kept alive using props, lies and a guilible public.


Weekend at Bennies. 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 10:57 | 3440819 adr
adr's picture

All of my retail buyers just sit and laugh during sales calls. They show me the sales numbers and say, "Last quarter wasn't good, dude. What are you going to do to get the numbers up?"

I reply with, "Whose numbers were good?"

I get, "Touche" in response.

Some of the buyers picked up on the bullshit last year, others were still brainless zombies devoted to the mothership. Almost all of them understand the reality now. The companies are bankrupt, evidenced by the open to buy dollars cut to zero. The stores are just publicly traded inventory showrooms, to keep stocks elevated. Cash flow has stopped, accounts payable is overflowing with unpaid invoices. I call it "Net Never" payment terms.

One buyer that I would call a friend who left his job at the end of December called to tell me he got a new job. We used to go to ball games and talk about business off the record. He said, "Man, how did you know things were going to go to shit last holiday?" I told him it isn't hard once you pull away the layers of bullshit. All you have to do is walk around.

Most CEOs don't walk around anymore. They go on pre-scheduled walkthroughs of corporate flagship stores that have more in common with a Hollywood set than a real retail environment. Followed by yes men afraid to say anything, and paralyzed by fear that the boss man will find a single product out of place and fire them on the spot.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:08 | 3440946 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

We need more of your kind around here.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:25 | 3441062 Navymugsy
Navymugsy's picture

I "up arrow" every "bullish".

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 11:34 | 3441123 MilwaukeeMark
MilwaukeeMark's picture

Now is the Bernanke of our discontent.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:12 | 3441711 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I gave you an up arrow for effort and for newbie courtesy protocols !

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 18:57 | 3443251 screw face
screw face's picture


Do those i pad's float? 

I'm predicting a blood bath on Monday.

What say you?


Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:15 | 3441671 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I hesitate to make a comment .... because I am monitored by Bernanke .... and his Gold Suppression War Room staff .... I'm considered an opinion maker provocateur (loooose caaaanon) .... at least I don't have to sleep on a cot in the war room !  Hey Tyler, how about an update on Bitemecoin ?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:11 | 3441704 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Good motivation for this summer's high intensity prepping.  Time is getting shorter faster now.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:31 | 3442069 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

When you look at all of this the expectations of the consumer are high to keep up with business models, etc. and halfway understand what is happening..I have renamed the Affordable Care Act to be the Affordable Complexities make a point on that topic.  All government knows how to do is throw money at problems and consumers are not dumb and can tell when something is not working.  They may not get the math models and algorithms that are behind it but what they see is enough.

Take a look at the Navigator program that now needs to suck a lot of money in to HHS as the business models built by health insurance companies are so complex and chagne all the time, we even need a complext set of grants put out there to help the trainers get trained.  It's like income tax time and someone else doing your taxes bu this is round hoop and like wiping your fanny with it...there's not end to the crap...

You toss all of this out there with government officials and Congress that carry through the philosophy of "its for those guys over there" and it's no surprise consumers have no confidence and I am one of them:)

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