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Fear The Uncorrelated Stock Market

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Asset price correlations across a wide spectrum of industries and asset classes are meaningfully lower than the last few months. ConvergEx's Nick Colas note that this is something completely unexpected: we’ve approached a “Normal” capital market over the last 30 days.

 

S&P 500 sector correlations are below 80% relative to the index, foreign stocks are 77-87% correlated to U.S. stocks, and even domestic high yield corporate bonds are 56% dancing to their own tune.

 

However, before we run off celebrating the return to a stock-picker’s market, it is worth noting one statistical point worth your time: when industry sector correlations have dropped below 80% from 2010 to the present...

 

the subsequent one month, one quarter and one year returns have been below average, especially the shorter time frames.

 

Via Nick Colas, ConvergEx,

“Early is the same thing as wrong.”  That’s another oldie-but-a-goodie from my library of ancient trader sayings, and I can’t help but think about it every time I see another high profile finance professional call a top to the U.S. equity market.  The next day usually proves them wrong, and the next week confirms it, and the next month slams the last nail in the coffin of the prediction.  You’d think that everyone would remember the mother of all bad “Get me out” calls – the Alan Greenspan “irrational exuberance” meme.  He called the top of the domestic market in December 1996.  About 1,000 days early.

At the same time, one understands the desire to make the call in the current environment.  Stocks have more than doubled off the bottom, many investors have made a year’s worth of returns in the last three months, and despite lackluster U.S. economic data and troublesome rumblings from Europe, U.S. stocks basically just go up.  As the poet Browning said, “God’s in his heaven – All’s right with the world.”

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all, although not as enticing as the “New high every other day” pattern, is that asset price correlations have declined to some of their lowest levels in years.  Simply put, that means that capital markets are actually differentiating between health care stocks and emerging market equities.  You’d think they would always do that, but since the Financial Crisis this has been a distinctly rare event.  The whole “Risk on, risk off” theme has been a popular explanation of market behavior for a good reason – it has been largely true that all risk assets rise or fall together.

Until this month, anyway.  Every 30 days or so we look at the asset price correlations for a range of industry sectors and different asset classes.  We’ve been doing this for several years now, and the idea is to assess the health of the market in a more robust way that just saying “Stocks are up; everything is OK.”  For a capital market to function properly, different investments have to move at different times.  This allows for the benefits of diversification to offset the systematic risk of owning any one stock, bond, currency, commodity, or anything else.  For this month, as shown in the accompanying tables and charts, the correlation news looks remarkably good.  Here are our key points:

  • The average correlation among the 10 different industry groups in the S&P 500 were 79% last month.  That might sound high – common wisdom is that half of an asset’s move is typically due to the broader market – but compared to the last 2 months (85-88% correlation) it is fairly low.
  • International stocks – both emerging and developed markets – are also showing more of a “Go your own way” level of price movement. Correlations for developed markets to the S&P 500 are 88%, versus 92% last month.  Emerging markets essentially trade the same as last month, with a 77% correlation to US stocks (versus 78% last month).
  • Domestic high yield corporate bonds have a current correlation to stocks of 56%, down from 75-81% two and three months ago.

There’s only two ways to read this data, and you have to choose one.

Behind door #1: After the better part of five years with investors clustering together for safety, we’re finally returning to a more normal capital market.  Incremental buyers of risk assets are looking for actual outperformance versus their peers and the market as a whole.  They are placing more aggressive bets, and this proactive attempt to outperform means asset prices are finally breaking out of their highly correlated patterns.

It is hard to overestimate how positive this outcome would be to stock markets around the world.  The high correlation price action of the last few years may have generated some nice “New high” headlines along the way.  But in reality, no one really cares.  Asset flows remain weak, especially among retail investors as it related to U.S. stocks.  But in a healthy market, where some groups just flat out trade better than others, some

Behind door #2:  Nothing has fundamentally changed about how liquidity sloshes around capital markets, so any abnormally low correlations are likely a temporary anomaly.  We pulled the prospective returns for the S&P 500 over one month, one quarter and one year for the 5 times average industry sector correlations dropped below 80%.  You can see the dates and future market returns in the attached table.

The news isn’t good.  Average one month returns when industry correlations drop below 80% are 0.02%, versus 0.90% for all months from April 2010 to now. Over one quarter, the S&P 500 returns (2.34%) after correlations get this low.  The average for all months is positive 2.6%.  For the following year, buying right as correlations hit their usual bottom results in an average return of 8.46%, or over 100 basis points less than the annual average of 9.8% over the period.

The bottom line is that we aren’t necessarily calling a top – that’s a fool’s game, as we noted up top. Still, the data doesn’t lie.  Low current correlations seem to be a sign of complacency, similar to a low CBOE VIX Index.  So celebrate a little, if you must.  But drink in moderation.

 

and the relationship between the US equity market and the rest of the world has entirely decorrelated (left) as inidividual names in the S&P 500 have become the least correlated in over 5 years...

 

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Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:22 | 3443295 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

We have nothing to fear but fear itself... Unless some jackass decides to try and confiscate PM's. Unfortunately, mine were lost last week in a terrible boating accident.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:22 | 3443305 RobD
RobD's picture

Earlier today on a down page thread I wrote this

"O.T But I thought I would report on the ever larger guns and ammo bubble that is going on in the US. I dropped by the Big Reno Gun show this morning, more out of curiosity then anything else as I'm topped up with all that I want and need. Normally the show is crowded as hell on Saturday and Sunday but Friday morning early is not to bad. Well this morning everybody and there brother was there and even at an hour ofter the open the line for tickets was crazy."

 

Well I stopped by the gun show after work and was able to get in ok but there was still a line for ammo. I talked to the couple at the front of the line and they said they had been in line for 5 hours. Instead of two large ammo booths there was only one and they still had some ammo but were out of .223 and some other rounds. The prices for mags were twice what they were 6 months ago. I think the sheep are awakening and getting sheared lol. Only thing I picked up was a sling and a couple of beers. At least the beers were nice and cold.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:23 | 3443314 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

What is the availabilty of reloading components?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:34 | 3443346 RobD
RobD's picture

I was not really looking for any but I did see some boxes of small pistol primmers and a few bags of bullets in various calibers but all were way high. Glad I stocked up a couple of years ago. Just have to sit down and pumps some out of my dillon.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:11 | 3443467 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Dillon is good stuff.  Congrats on being prepared.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 21:31 | 3443705 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Maybe those people should just go tar and feather Harry Reid if they had any balls. The Senate gets away with muder destroying this country.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:23 | 3443306 Petrus Romanus
Petrus Romanus's picture

At this point it appears the only thing stocks correlate to is runny dog shit!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:22 | 3443307 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Luckily 99% of Americans fear math!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:43 | 3443379 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

bondz bitchez

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:46 | 3443387 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Either gold will explode or stocks will hit the rocks.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:50 | 3443409 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Or gold will explode and stocks will rip

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:17 | 3443487 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Or they will both go up or they will both go down. Just remember, it is all an exchange rate between the fiat currency(ies) and the asset class. No more, no less. Having said that, and having said what I said later about the divergence of sample second moments, the times when the exchange rate changes radically is when the sample second moments of exchange rate of the interals begins to change radically.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:13 | 3443476 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Second moments do not exist for asset class returns. They only appear to exist because you can compute them. In the long run they diverge to being undefined. Think of a Chaucy distribution.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:23 | 3443509 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Correlations, bitchez!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:41 | 3443567 Michelle
Michelle's picture

It's so bad out there that you may as well blow your head off. Bad bad bad. Everyday, every month, every year. How can you people even get out of bed every morning? Oh that's right, there's SSD, no reason to get out of bed.

Geez..........

 

 

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 04:27 | 3444189 ironymonger
ironymonger's picture

You seem angry.

Please lie back and tell us about your mother.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 08:01 | 3444268 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Sounds like somebody is a little too attached to things that aren't real.

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 12:03 | 3444539 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

I've got an SSD on my laptop.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:48 | 3443588 hannah
hannah's picture

so the take away is that th estock market is going to go up forever and all is well even thou the real world is in the shitter...?what is this article about anyway...?

Sat, 04/13/2013 - 02:48 | 3444142 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

The normal negative & positive FX correlations have been disrupted of late as has the 'normal' risk on/risk off phenomena, the return to normality could be interesting

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