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JPM's Tom Lee "Capitulates" On His Correction Call, Says BTFD
Remember when JPM's cuddly permabull Tom Lee called for a correction less than 2 months ago in a note titled "Stepping Aside Short-Term; Fade Strength and Look for Better Entry Point Around 1400-1450; Big Picture Constructive"? Apparently he did not take into account the $80 billion monthly hot money injection from the BOJ, which has made any fundamental analysis utterly irrelevant, and has completely destroyed any ability of the market to reflect reality or discount any other future other than that of hundreds of billions in new monthly liquidity injections. Which is why moments ago he "capitulated" on his correction call.
From JPM:
We capitulate on our “correction" call. A stronger bull market (than anticipated) is underway in 2013, tracking more closely with a typical 5th year than we anticipated (average 5th year gain is 19%, implying 1700 by YE). What went wrong with our call over the past 6 weeks, in our view, is two-fold: first, economic data, while softening, did not weaken as anticipated and more importantly, markets looked through this (the March jobs report was the final example for us) and second, the market has worked off “contrarian sell” signals (HF beta, MF beta, AAII, etc.) without correction (digesting rather than correcting).
2013 better “bull” than we anticipated: 3 reasons. Why has the bid been unrelenting? We believe three "unobserved" factors played a key role: (i) the range of economic outcomes is widening (more upside/more downside), a positive development for equity over credit (credit relies on a narrower range of economic outcomes due to QE-end and default drivers); (ii) Washington “tail-risk” has faded in 2013 compared to 2009-2012 and (iii) Corporates are not longer “working for the bond market” and we are seeing more equity friendly behavior, including a step-up in dividends (up 12% so far in 2013)
Odd: no mention of the one and only real factor: central banks gone on full tilt. Odd.
Yet not even Tom Lee has utter confidence in the Stalinists in charge of the money printers, and caveats his outlook:
What could go wrong? We believe the biggest risk to our view is that the market begins to correct just as we capitulate on it happening. That is potential irony. But a negative catalyst has to be strong enough to question the trajectory of the recovery. That said, we wanted to be overweight equities in 2013 (and for the last 4 years)—thus, ultimately we recommend that investors should be buying dips.
Yup: BTFD. This is what passes for serious advice from the head of equity strategy at America's biggest bank.
If you aren't crying with laughter at this point, you aren't paying attention.
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In addition to Zerohedge’s yesterday’s « goldman activates magic 8 ball » http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-11/goldman-activates-magic-8-ball-can-now-see-sp-500-2015-1900 and the direction of the stock market over the next two months, I remember that appr. one year ago, Goldman delivered this piece „the long good buy“ http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-the-long-good-buy-the-case-for-equities-2012-3 which in hindsight was a good call except for those who followed their advice quickly and got stopped out in the subsequent immeadiate correction. Same pattern, other year ? Could be material for Tyler who can put this in words much better than I.
I'll show you question the trajectory of the recovery...
BURRISH!
Ton Lee definitely has this right....this is a "bull" market.
Fuck him and every other asshole that works for Jackle Ponzi Morons.
The bulls capitulate at the bottoms, .and the bears capitulate at the tops....
"If you aren't crying with laughter at this point, you aren't paying attention."
Does the crying have to be from laughter?
I think we get credit for paying attention if the tears are from bitter desperation, right?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/11/three-lessons-obama-drone-lies
Tyler, Cuddly? If you like Ewoks maybe...
You like Ewoks? :)
Yub yub!
Yeah well this fucker is on the Fed early distribution list and hate to say it but this fucker is right. Look at todays price action...the world is collapsing all around and the Dow is down jack shit
This Keynesian farce will only end one way:
http://wallstreetfool.com/2013/04/12/keynesian-endgame-the-youtube-version/
He was wrong then, so why should anyone believe he's going to be right this time? Experience has shown that you'd do better fading any publically given advice coming out of a big bank.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!
There ain't no curtain anymore, he's doing it out in the open...
Goldman was confident in S&P 1250 by December 2012. Now they are calling for 1900. Draw your own conclusions folks.
Ties in well with Krugman's screed in the NYT about gold. Fire all your guns at once! What a joke!
1700 would be a sweet place to sell. It's always a good day to sell in bernankee world.
1,666
Good call.
Tom Lee, I wouldn't trust that fucker to change my oil much less manage my money.
My other quick thought [for the LULZ] was 1.618
~~~
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio
1,618 X .618 = ...drumroll... 999
~~~
'Thank You Sir May I Have Another' [lol]
Assume the position.
Let's put Neidermeyer on it... He's a sneaky little shit...
^^Implying any of these fuckers knew how to do anything with their hands at all.
But a negative catalyst has to be strong enough to question the trajectory of the recovery.
Recovery? - You mean like, the economy is firing on all cylinders, employment opportunities abound, Washington has constructed a business-friendly environment and, generally speaking the future’s so bright you gotta wear shades?
Beautiful.
It's a TRAP!
"I was right before I was wrong so I'm still right" - Tom "Dow 36,000" Lee
Hmmm. I am pretty sure that chart construction has a shitload of stops just under that daily bridge to nowhere formation. That is what the inducies looked like going into 2000. These guys are just saying buy because it is going up. Which would have been fine before they changed the banking rules again. Market panics are caused by banking crises. And that is what is back on the table since Cyprus. If they want this party continue, QE5 banking recap is required.
Closing in on month 4 of the year - Dow up over 13%.
Annualized that's about 40%.
This makes good sense in Bizarro Jerry's world.
Another day watching the "Jenga Markets". Your turn to pull a block Tom Lee.
"Yup: BTFD. This is what passes for serious advice from the head of equity strategy at America's biggest bank. If you aren't crying with laughter at this point, you aren't paying attention."
From the sublime to the (utterly) stupid.
i wonder if tylers were harshly disciplined for calling central banker(s) chairsatan(s) and now, instead, are calling them stalinists
just for the record; i will continue identifying these criminals by who they are - hofjuden and shtadlans
Correction assured. See you all at 1450. :-)
When Tyler finally capitulates says BTFD and there are only two other readers and myself left..then thats' the day when this over-inflated pig will finally crash.....or they might just speed things up and use old Kim as an exuse to collapse eveything.
Young Kim will be the excuse to revitalize Haliburton, KBR, Xe, Tripple Canopy, General Dynamics and L3. Not all of the above are publicly traded.
We will not capitulate, we won't let them terrorize us! They will NOT prevail, and one day we shall be free!
Oh I know that. But they sure try to grind us down.
666 was the low. Of course 1666 will be the high. This too easy
Yes, but will there be a five pointed star or a six pointed one?
Asking someone to analyze the economy is like asking a Biology student to analyze a sample of river water from the Himalayas for organizms. All is hunkey-dorey until the department chair decides that the sample needs to be stimulated with 85 mililiters of of salt water from the Dead Sea.
That's how I'm going to explain the economy to my fellow students. Some are smarter than others.
+ 1 for most esoteric analogy of the day
Fear and desperation says $85B isn't enough, jawboning is all that's left.
We are very close to the point where QE daily injections of $1.5 to $5 billion a day (leveraged) are not enough to counter rising selling volume, not to mention that it is not a worthwhile risk/return for the primary's dealers trading desks. There is much more money to be made on the downside - remember that they all went massively short on September 2008. I suspect this time they will have to disguise these shorts through off-balance sheet swaps exclusively.
Brace for impact, less than 6 months aways.
I really, really can't take much more of this total bullshit. Who is this fucker to tell anyone to do anything? If he was here with me I'd bitch slap him till my hands bled, then kick him in the balls.
Market has gone way too high
Total US equities market cap is about £18tn
For the entire market to rise the equivalent of 1 DOW point means an increase in market cap of £18tn/14,800 = $1.2bn per DOW point.
Dow has risen over 2000 points since QE4eva = market cap rise of 1.2bn*2000 = 2.4tn. But QE4eva has only pumped about 5*£85bn = $425bn.
So QE of $425bn (assuming it all went into equities - which is unlikely) has increased US equity market cap by $2.4 tn, and market conditions are now deteriorating.
I understand it's flow not stock that counts, but very soon a big correction is coming.
You forget about Japan, and leverage?
His cubicle partner Blythe is making me buy another 500 ounces of silver. I didn't plan on it , but I am going down with the ship if I must.
Because, "Where else ya gonna go?"
Vanna White must be sooo jealous of how easy it is for these fucks to make tons of money.
We know that the market crashes from time to time. Is it intentional? If so, what would make the FED crash the market now?
That North Korean ruler works at JPM???
The price of paper gold/silver in an ever expanding universe of fiat printing is irrelevant.
Does anybody really think gold and silver is becoming less valuable when they play these games, when a world of printing has zero beneficial effect. When central banks are buying gold in bulk, and asking for the return of their gold....
When this thing blows gold and silver are going to be panic bought throughout the world in an instant...and you wont get your hands on physical....those who cant get it will go for the next best thing in a hurry....gold and silver miners.
It is all so cheap now. But you don't know how long you will have to wait.
Fool, shares in gold-mining stocks are also paper gold.
Uh-huh, yeah, right... enjoy the fake selloff in the futures... They should reverse it around 1575 - if it even makes it there. Remember, market doesn't close significantly down on a Friday. Ever.
I have been following large cap mining stocks for about 10 years now. When I look at prices of some of these companies such as Iamgold, Kinross etc, I cannot remember a time when these have been so cheap. Back in 2007 when oil was reaching 150 a barrel and gold was sub 1000, stock prices in these companies was much higher. Iamgold for example is almost looking like a penny stock! I stand in awe at current prices and honestly I cannot resist buying the dip on some of these. Like the markets in general, prices in this sector have been misjudged. I think gold has a bit farther down to correct but cannot help wonder if this is a very rare opportunity for bottom fishing
I don't know. Abby and Tom both going bullish. Does anyone hear a bell ringing?
So this guy is a moron?
OK Tom, if you say so, I just bought the silver dip. Now go tell Blythe. I'm sure she'll be very happy to hear it.
Celebrity Death Match:
In the red corner, the monchichi JPM mouthpiece Tom Lee
In the blue corner, the inimitable Tommy Lee
Tommy Lee: “Just because we are wearing lipstick doesn't mean we can't kick your ass!”