Railcar Loadings Drop Most Year-To-Date Since Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture

This must be bullish. While the rise in railcar loadings (whether driven by the rotation from pipelines to rail or a 'real' recovery in the economy) has been impressive off the lows and had got back to pre-recession levels, this year is not looking so good. The typical seasonal pattern - somewhat obviously - starts around mid January and rises all year tending to roll over around the start of November into holiday season. 1995 was the last year that intermodal railcar loadings rolled over notably away from this pattern. Since mid-January, 2013 has seen a notably different pattern from the norm - worse than 2009's abrupt plunge.

 

This time it's different...

 

notably different...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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francis_sawyer's picture

Warren Buffet can suffocate in his own bathtub filled with bullshit for all I care... [with Becky QUICK ~ clamped to his DICK]

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1 Mr. Sawyer!  Buffett is a parasite on the economy...

Lower railcar loadings and pretty low Baltic Dry Index numbers are sobering...

Does anyone know if there is an index for containerload prices...?

francis_sawyer's picture

One would hope so... I prefer 'corn on the cob', then, wiping my ass with the dried cob from an ungenetically modified seed... to distilling Monsanto fucking franken-seeds, to fill up Al Gore's SUV caravan...

McMolotov's picture

All I know is that my personal "WTF?! Index" has never been higher. The world appears to be spinning off its axis, and most people remain completely oblivious to what's coming.

NotApplicable's picture

I keep waiting for the IRS to go ballastic, in a pointedly hollow fashion.

akak's picture

Also for DHS to "go ballistic", as it were.

DeadFred's picture

Today ranks really high on the WTF scale that's for sure.

Makes me wonder if someone knows something that the rest of us will  find out soon enough. It is Friday, who is going to be downgraded at 4 PM?

Dishonesty Fatigue's picture

Well said. Distortion is everywhere like in a carnival hall of mirrors. At first it's amusing, then it's unnerving, and finally it gets terrifying.

I am more equal than others's picture

According to Nassim Taleb most people cannot factor in negative outcomes in their decision making process.  The 'alternative universe' concept where bad things happen is too complex.  Estimating the probability of a total meltdown is overwhelming.  Additionally, there has been no such events to which a person can compare their circumstances with historical events (availability and anchoring heuristics). 

Citxmech's picture

"According to Nassim Taleb most people cannot factor in negative outcomes in their decision making process."

Wow - that's pretty disadvantageous from a Darwinian point of view if it's true.

I was just discussing this with my wife yesterday - we pretty much take a "prepare for the worst, hope for the best" approach.  I seems to us to be a perfect "Pascal's wager":  When things go better than planned, no harm no foul - we're insured, but if/when they do go to shit - we'll be as covered as we can be.

I am more equal than others's picture

Nassim presents the 'Turkey' story that demonstrates the incomprehensible nature of factoring in negative outcome.  Check out his website.  He has a lot of good stuff. 

Summation of the 'Turkey' story- everything is fine until it is not.  He also knocks social darwainism - the game of roulette (alternative outcomes or universes) is used to show the pure silliness of that concept.  Darwainism is in the same line of thinking as karma.  Good things happen to those who adapt. 

Van Halen's picture

McMolotov has a point - it seems that the worse the news gets, the more bullish the markets and the harder the Drive-By Media spin this for low information voters. It all seems designed to keep the current administration insulated from any kind of criticism whatsoever.
In the United States, we're letting about 3000 of them control 320 million of us.

Quant Jockey's picture

Corrugated carboard use is another great indicator of activity.

OutLookingIn's picture

@ DoChen;

Shipping news and containers costs.

Hapag-Lloyd ended merger talks between Germany's two biggest container shipping companies. Hamburg based Hapag-Lloyd says it's full-year (2012) net loss widened to 128 million Euros from 29 million Euros a year earlier.

Hanjin Shipping and Hapag-Lloyd have joined OOCL and Maersk in announcing container shipping rate hikes of between $200-$500 USD per TEU (twenty foot equivelent unit) container effective April 1, 2013.

The average global container (TEU) freight rate last year (2012) was $1,581.00 USD per unit.

HD's picture

Buffet's last words, "Becky...Quick!!!"

CheapBastard's picture

More room for the Hobos if the rail cars are empty. Bullish for them!

brettd's picture

That's not very nice.

Your punishment is to pay MORE taxes to save Warren's Social Security check!

 

bnbdnb's picture

Its just more efficienct. DUH

wee-weed up's picture

Yep, looks like the only thing being "railroaded" is the American people...

by the Obama Admin and their lapdog MSM.

StarTedStackin''s picture

no no no you have it all wrong.....

 

 Both parties are the same.....

 

If it happened on Obama's watch, it IS Bush's fault.........

 

 

and a vote for Ron Paul in the Presidential election really was NOT a vote for the Obowel Movement.......

 

 

 

 

uh huh!

 

 

Dagny Taggart's picture

Atlas is Shrugging

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

That might be it, Dagny!  There is a LOT to be said for a shrug now...

I am on my way to the LCS to buy some more Au.  Look for a Central Bank announcement later...

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Agreed! And it appears to be accelerating.

<Careful with the shrugging though or you might become a hunchback.> :)

A Nanny Moose's picture

Atlas Shrugged needs to be moved from the Fiction category to Documentary

Random_Robert's picture

As do "1984" and "Brave New World"

 

 

flapdoodle's picture

With "Soylent Green" on deck...

Abi Normal's picture

Don't forget Animal Farm - Winston

akak's picture

Now even the hobos are being edged out.

akak's picture

I met the "official" King of the Hobos on a train once, many years ago.  He had ridden the rails all over the USA during the Great Depression.

Today he would probably be considered a terrorist.

francis_sawyer's picture

Woody Guthrie

[sung by Peter, Paul, & Mary]

~~~

'This train don't carry no gamblers, this train.
This train don't carry no gamblers, this train.
This train don't carry no gamblers,
No crap shooters, no midnight ramblers,
This train don't carry no gamblers, this train.

This train, don't carry no jokers, well, this train.
This train, don't carry no jokers, well, this train.
This train, don't carry no jokers,
No high-tone women, no cigar smokers, well
This train, don't carry no jokers, well, this train.

This train, done carried my mother, well, this train.
This train, done carried my mother, well, this train.
This train, done carried my mother,
My mother, my father, my sister and my brother,
This train, done carried my mother, well this train.

This train, she's bound for glory, well, this train
This train, she's bound for glory, well, this train
This train, she's bound for glory, well, this train
This train, she's bound for glory,
If you want to get to heaven then you've got to be holy, well,
This train, she's bound for glory, well, this train'

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2aPNU_cpCs

francis_sawyer's picture

@akak ~ Emperor(s) of the North

~~~

RIP Ernest Borgnine & Lee Marvin... May they 'BLOB UP' in heaven...

oddjob's picture

Hey kid you got no class. Hit the bums, kid. Run like the devil. Get a tin can and take up mooching. Knock on back doors for a nickel.

akak's picture

I can tell you from bitter (if not recent) experience, Hell hath no fury like a RR yard dick.

Those goons are perfect material for the DHS.

francis_sawyer's picture

I hear ya... & I can imagine...

~~~

But since we're in a NEW PARADIGM... Maybe one could offer them 'bitcoins' to get them off ur jock... LOL

yrbmegr's picture

Yes, subsistence is getting competitive.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

akak said:

Now even the hobos are being edged out.

Ah, ah, where is the dividend of the US hobbo on everything?

Of course, US 'american' citizens are driving the bus. But driving the bus does not mean full control over it like pushing speed up beyond what the bus can deliver.

People usually take the Iceland train far too late, only looking at the latest events. They had their fix when Rick "The Face Of Chineses" Shaw got booted out of WWE by US 'american' citizen Mighty Igor.

One incredible thing: people thinking it could be other way.

akak's picture

Of course, US 'american' citizens are driving the bus. But driving the bus does not mean full control over it like pushing speed up beyond what the bus can deliver.

____________________________________________________________

Much of truthiness here, yet driving of buses is the least of it when US 'american' citizenism comes into the play.

Consumption, consumption is the mettle of 'american' citizen eternal nature.

Not being good consumptionizers, lacking skills in blobbing-up, the hobbos of USA are forced to the exterior of 'american' society.  They are not holding power, not the middle class, therefore not the king class.

In US 'american' citizenism, holding power is a middle-class thing. 

But like always, US 'americans' will seek symmetry in the inability to self-indict and forcing blame to the exterior while farming the poor and extorting the weak.  Eternal nature, ah the duplicity!

Monolizing the means of all, 'American' style.  Expect more, expect less.

Life is always good for 'americans'.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Not being good consumptionizers, lacking skills in blobbing-up, the hobbos of USA are forced to the exterior of 'american' society.  They are not holding power, not the middle class, therefore not the king class.

____________________________________________________________

 

This leads goods to move to the consumption zone without ever stopping to Iceland. That is the US 'american' citizenism ghost town effect, illustrated by many times on the US. You know, when a US 'american' town saw less and less the trains stopping by as it was more profitable retainment the cargo to sell it on the mega city nextby.

 

____________________________________________________________

But like always, US 'americans' will seek symmetry in the inability to self-indict and forcing blame to the exterior while farming the poor and extorting the weak.  Eternal nature, ah the duplicity!

____________________________________________________________

 

Absolutely right. Not only that, but it is reported on a daily basis. The US, always so keen on pointing fingers at others, reversely fail to pass its own tests. Always the duplicitations poured on.

US 'american' hobbos are tossed out of the salad bowl. They do not opposse the process by itself. They opposse being left in behind. They want to jump on the train and not be left on the spur track undressinged.

That is what you get when US 'american' citizens disscus everything but reality. Train conductor spoke to cover tracks or infuriate people by showing them while being naked, he can still force them to behave as if he is dressinged.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Oh in just a few more days that ole trickle down will come through! I'm ready to lick it up off the boots of the oligarchs!

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yum!  But, I'll let you go first...  LOL...

yrbmegr's picture

Brief note to Ben Bernanke.  Please stop buying paper from the banks.  It's not helping.

Bastiat's picture

Another brief note to Bernanke: 

Ben,

Nice depression you've got started here, asshole.

PS:  Fuck you.

rude letter to follow

Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

even better....look at railcar loadings of waste and scrap.  you cannot have waste and scrap without production and/or consumption.