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US Economic Data Plunges Most In 10 Months To 4-Month Lows
Judging by the stock markets the last two weeks have been one of the best periods ever but the reality - hidden behind a smoke-screen of central bank liquidity and jawboning mirrors is dire. The last ten days have seen miss-after-miss in macro economic data - in fact this is the biggest plunge in macro data in 10 months. Despite the stock market's exuberance (at all-time highs), macro data has rolled over dramatically to 4-month lows. Of the major economic data points we have missed 18 of the last 20. With sentiment sagging, GDP revising lower, and earnings season disappointing, we can only imagine the BTFD opportunities that await.
- Markit US PMI Miss
- ISM Manufacturing Miss
- ISM New York Miss
- Vehicle Sales Miss
- ADP Employment Miss
- ISM Services Miss
- Challenger Job Cuts Miss
- Initial Claims Miss
- Trade Balance Beat
- Non-Farm Payrolls Miss
- Hourly Earnings Miss
- NFIB Small Business Miss
- Wholesale Inventories Miss
- MBA Mortgage Apps Miss
- Import Prices Miss
- Initial Claims Beat
- Retail Sales Miss
- PPI Miss
- UMich Confidence Miss
- Business Inventories Miss
The disconnect yawns ever wider...
With macro data plunging...
and it seems commodities saw it coming once again...
Charts: Bloomberg
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BULLISH!!
(Sorry gang, couldn't resist.)
bullshitish, hows that? better?
This has to be the worst case of collective insanity I've seen in my life. I feel like we're trapped in a room full of dynamite, and there's a bunch of 6-year-olds running around with matches.
Six year olds are actually pretty smart, most times they listen and see reality before adults.
I'd say it's a room full of dynamite with sixty year olds running around with matches with six year olds strapped to the barrels.
Bullish...bearish...looks like we all lose! Grow your own food! The true 1% who will benefit (they think) include none of us...its a zero sum game fellows, it's a zerohedge.
#aquaponics
When Ben was a kid he blew bubbles in the street, and he blew bubbles in the park, and he blew bubbles at school, and he even blew bubbles in his bedroom. Ben really liked to blow bubbles.
PS... If your reading this Ben, I saw bubbles yesterday, he wants you to call him.
Good point since the older folks seem to be off their rockers, and it's the kids who'll end up being hurt the most in all of this.
considering what we're handing the children, I'd say your analogy is a blast
Actually, we're now all living in the Twilight Zone. More specifically, we're living in a little town called Peaksville and we're being ruled by Anthony Fremont. Anthony is a six year old boy who can do anything he wants using only his mind. He controls the entire town, enforcing his erratic will on everyone else. Everyone must think happy thoughts and adore Anthony or suffer the consequences. The title of the episode is "It's a Good Life". BTW, there is no escape from Peaksville.
http://www.hulu.com/watch/440799
Anthony reminds me of someone else who acts like a spoiled 6-year old. Substitute "It's a Good Recovery" for the original title and you'll feel a sense of deja vu.
Freakin' commercials!!
It sure is something to behold. Not only does it defy logic, it may go down as one of the most foolish exercises in the history of finance.
And the bad news? The sprinkler system is filled with gasoline.
No biggie....Call in the Sandy Hook actors, they always improve the mood... so upbeat !!
No problem, I bet they'll have the farce all back to very green by close!
Ignore the man behind the curtain... its just Krugman giving Ben a blow job.
Don't tell Bubbles!
I predict more of the same.
Why is it called "US Macro"? Should be called "US Micro"!
Miss USA is winning!
The roller-coaster cart has left the rails....cue Isaac Newton.
Oh wow
Makes total sense.
Market panic - down nine S&P points.
Or what MSM would call a buying opportunity of a lifetime
World macro is even worse. You can look whereever you want: Singpore Q1 GDP negative, Canadian jobs growth negative. US PPI negative. China's credit rating downgraded by Fitch for the first time since 1999. IMF, World Bank global 2013 GDP forecasts lowered. It goes on and on...
WOW! Thanks Unce Ben and company, no future for me. Well, maybe I can go back into the military, I suspect there is a war on the horizon. YAY!
USA, USA ,USA!
Crude still has economic signalling capabilities, thank goodness. Ben has all but killed the signals in equities and the curve.
Economic signals, yes.
However this does not equate to equities at all. They have been very disconnected from any fundamentals or macro risk for months now. Why would that change now? The stock market is protected by the Fed. Until the funds lose confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain stable, rising prices in the market it will not change.
Even then the Fed could just buy 25Bil, 50 or even 100B worth of futures and just hold the market up - what is it to them?
Common now, any idiot knows that the stock market is the barometer for the economy, not the macro mumbo jumpo some Yale economics professor made up.
it is not a barometer of the economy. The stock market is a barometer of how rich people and corporations are doing. They are fleecing the lower and middle class of their accumulated wealth and stealing from the future via deficits to generate record profits.
great comment
We like to call it Capitalism. its not but we like to fuck up the language so people can't discuss what we do.
like murdering people and calling it collateral damage from unmanned aerial bomb strikes.
we have no morals,no ethics, no soul, we are the government. We are here to help you....
So commodities (eg. Gold) are getting hit over things not really being green shoots?
Hmmm....
Would that be like bond rate % going down? Sounds like it.
When do the cotton candy markets catch up?
BULLISHIT!
" I ran out of Bullshit"
- Howard Beale
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywD7d9OzGCw
While I've been losing money on this pumped, HFTed, aloged market over the last 4 years, I'm now beginning to find it quite amusing, given the data of the last week.
Bernanke has (as has been stated before) completely and utterly painted himself into a corner.
DavidC
How can this be happening? Bernake is still buying bonds directly from the treasury and MBS from the banks! This cant be happening!!!
Pvt. Hudson, you can trust the decision-making of Lt. Gorman (along with his trusted civilian advisor from Goldman Sachs).
Now...when to short the shit out of the major indices???
May puts. Premiums may be high. When this clusterfuck hits the skids, higher premiums won't matter.
Personally, I'm liking May-June calendar put spreads.
Sell in May is probably a good advice as always. Another debt ceiling debacle is scheduled May 18th when the temporary suspension of the US debt ceiling expires.
I for my part am also counting on managed futures funds (CTAs) which are doing the best during rapid crashes (1987, 2008).
Fed is dumping commodities (and shorting them) to create deflation to offset the inflation they plan to bring through QE.
The only protected asset class is stocks - hence why there is no selling at all. Funds view stocks as next to no risk. The Fed actively manipulates the futures so that protects the downside.
Macro economic has nothing to do with current stock prices. Neither do earnings. Funds view them as "safe" as bonds since the Fed is actively targeting them - why would you ever sell?
Down very small today but already off the lows. Wait until 330 for the full recovery. 1650 next week in the sights.
Does this mean that 2:30PM ramp will be delayed to 2:45PM?
Despite the minuscule down opening, that motherfucker is already ramping back up into "Record Territory." Fucking cunts.
Please, someone, ask Bennie if he knows what failure looks like???
bennie and krugman don't know their ass from a tea kettle! I invite them to my home town and see what the real world looks like, 40% shops in town closed, 60% of families in my county on welfare, crime up 25% in the last 2 months mainly homes being robbed of copper and anything that is not nailed to the floor but thats ok the dow is hitting all time highs!
Of course they know what your town looks like. They just don't care. In fact, that is what they want. QE is targeted towards stocks and the Top 1%. Plain and simple. The desperation on Main Street is a plus because that keeps labor costs down and corporate earnings up.
They know exactly what they are doing.
Once upon a free-er market this would be bullish for gold.
dow 15000!
The disconnect between the S&P and US Macro looks exactly like the disconnect between counterfeit and PM. Is anyone else terrified by how upside down the world is?
There's war out there - keeping the Euro up to hold the US Dollar down.
It's amazing that markets shot up while the US Dollar did the same.
Like a Jenga tower being held up with two wooden blocks. Good luck pulling that next block out of the pile and adding it to the top.
When the US Dollar finally takes off (ie: the Euro falls again - below 1.20), it's curtains for the US indexes - Ben and Barry know this - 3-4B spent per day isn't going to cut it.
Then he spends 30B per day.
Uncle Ben can single handedly push the futures up to whatever level he wants. There is no limit on the Fed balance sheet. He could buy unlimited ES contracts each day and just settle for cash on expiration. Gain or loss does not matter. Since no one is able to stop him (barring Congress), there is no reason that will not happen. Congress is elected by all of the same guys that benefit from stock price appreciation. Do you actually think they would do anything to stop that? Besides the Fed can do it on stealth and no one would know since they will not allow an audit.
You can rest assured that the more extreme things get (stocks up, gold down), the more deadly the situation is becoming. These types of manipulations can only be accomplished from on top and with lots of money. The ecnomy is tanking. Its all they can do.
That's the way I see it. But I'm just f*cking sick of how long this bullshit can carry on.
It takes a long rime to turn a sinking cruise ship around and run it aground on a shallow beach so the rats can escape without drowning, aka exit strategy.
We are merely passnegers, they own the ship and the ocean yet can only control one of them.
All it take is for the JGB's to spike up in yield and the game will be up, as people realises that QE is not a free ride and the carry trade ends. Something will break badly soon with all this intervention by the central banks.
JGBs will never spike up. The BOJ is buyer of all. JPY will spike down instead.
And natural gas just doesn't care.
frack is back
Once you go Frack you never go back (you have no potable water left).
It's the Summer of Recovery, part Two: Electric Boogaloo.
Don't worry - the idiots on CNBC will start talking "green shoots" again soon. If the market is going up in the face of repeated deterioration, think about how high it will go when the green shoots crap starts again. 2000 on SP500?
holy fucking shit, i know we sound like broken records, but this shit is getting ridic.
can they not let the market drop significantly once?
i mean markets like japan and all of europe are rigged also, but at least they will occasionally have big down days.
this market we can get bad data after bad data and we r fucking flat pretty much and prob going to close green.
how is there not investigation into this criminal act by the fed and banksters yet?
Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.
But McDonalds is flying high. Bullish on fat asses.
I genuinely dreamed last night that I got to watch Chicken McNuggets being "produced".
It was far more disgusting than I had ever imagined.
I'm pretty sure the dream was an allegory.
The Economy tanking? That's all well and good.
I can't believe I still actually shout at my screen.
POMO is not only following a well defined trendline up, it is going intraday parabolic ...
Did I say POMO? Excuse me, I meant the SPY ...
AND defensives are well bid in the evil, calculative absence of mind, known as quantitative finance.
Star Trek comes to mind.
LMFAO!!! Dow Jones down 5. S&P500 down 5.75 (not a typo)
Barry: Hey Ben. Focus on those Dow 30 and keep printing.
Ben: Will do. Calling it in to the algo programmer right now.
Barry: Good job Ben.
Ben: Fuck you Barry and that fat ass wife of yours too.
He has a fat wife? must be a front -he's queer as a 3 dollar bill.
It will go down only when they're ready for it to go down. Setting up for another SQUEEZE?
Hmm... no wonder their primary focus is on guns..........
http://www.information-management.com/news/IT-hiring-at-near-standstill-...
And bullets.
Also why personal computer sales are collapsing:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/the-end-of-the-home-...
Now this is what an industry looks like when it goes into free-fall.
Market research firm IDC reported yesterday that worldwide personal computers had their sharpest drop ever for a single quarter, plummeting nearly 14 percent compared to the first three months of 2012.
You gotta love the new normal!
the money ben creates is intended for the plutocracy not for anyone else so it goes where the plutocracy wants to put it if they don't like pm's and prefer equities that's what happens why don' you zhers get that
Maybe some of us ZH'ers can be like remoras riding on a shark. Too small to catch our own in this "market", too small to be worth eating.
More likely, trying to make money in this market would cause us to be worthy of the other name for remoras, suckerfishes[true fact].
The US macro chart looks just like OIL.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OIL+Interactive#symbol=oil;range=6m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;