US Economic Data Plunges Most In 10 Months To 4-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Judging by the stock markets the last two weeks have been one of the best periods ever but the reality - hidden behind a smoke-screen of central bank liquidity and jawboning mirrors is dire. The last ten days have seen miss-after-miss in macro economic data - in fact this is the biggest plunge in macro data in 10 months. Despite the stock market's exuberance (at all-time highs), macro data has rolled over dramatically to 4-month lows. Of the major economic data points we have missed 18 of the last 20. With sentiment sagging, GDP revising lower, and earnings season disappointing, we can only imagine the BTFD opportunities that await.

 

  • Markit US PMI    Miss
  • ISM Manufacturing    Miss
  • ISM New York    Miss
  • Vehicle Sales    Miss
  • ADP Employment    Miss
  • ISM Services    Miss
  • Challenger Job Cuts     Miss
  • Initial Claims    Miss
  • Trade Balance    Beat
  • Non-Farm Payrolls    Miss
  • Hourly Earnings    Miss
  • NFIB Small Business    Miss
  • Wholesale Inventories    Miss
  • MBA Mortgage Apps   Miss
  • Import Prices    Miss
  • Initial Claims    Beat
  • Retail Sales    Miss
  • PPI    Miss
  • UMich Confidence    Miss
  • Business Inventories    Miss

 

The disconnect yawns ever wider...

 

With macro data plunging...

 

and it seems commodities saw it coming once again...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:26 | 3441447 docj
docj's picture

BULLISH!!

(Sorry gang, couldn't resist.)

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:32 | 3441488 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bullshitish, hows that? better?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:41 | 3441527 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

This has to be the worst case of collective insanity I've seen in my life. I feel like we're trapped in a room full of dynamite, and there's a bunch of 6-year-olds running around with matches.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:47 | 3441570 adr
adr's picture

Six year olds are actually pretty smart, most times they listen and see reality before adults.

I'd say it's a room full of dynamite with sixty year olds running around with matches with six year olds strapped to the barrels.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:50 | 3441585 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

Bullish...bearish...looks like we all lose! Grow your own food! The true 1% who will benefit (they think) include none of us...its a zero sum game fellows, it's a zerohedge. 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:58 | 3441628 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

#aquaponics

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:58 | 3441629 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

When Ben was a kid he blew bubbles in the street, and he blew bubbles in the park, and he blew bubbles at school, and he even blew bubbles in his bedroom. Ben really liked to blow bubbles.

 

 

 

 

PS... If your reading this Ben, I saw bubbles yesterday, he wants you to call him.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:51 | 3441603 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Good point since the older folks seem to be off their rockers, and it's the kids who'll end up being hurt the most in all of this.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:34 | 3442080 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

considering what we're handing the children, I'd say your analogy is a blast 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:55 | 3441610 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Actually, we're now all living in the Twilight Zone. More specifically, we're living in a little town called Peaksville and we're being ruled by Anthony Fremont. Anthony is a six year old boy who can do anything he wants using only his mind. He controls the entire town, enforcing his erratic will on everyone else. Everyone must think happy thoughts and adore Anthony or suffer the consequences. The title of the episode is "It's a Good Life". BTW, there is no escape from Peaksville. 

http://www.hulu.com/watch/440799

Anthony reminds me of someone else who acts like a spoiled 6-year old. Substitute "It's a Good Recovery" for the original title and you'll feel a sense of deja vu.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:40 | 3441835 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Freakin' commercials!!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:07 | 3441678 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

It sure is something to behold.  Not only does it defy logic, it may go down as one of the most foolish exercises in the history of finance. 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:20 | 3443503 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

And the bad news? The sprinkler system is filled with gasoline.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:01 | 3441647 rotagen
rotagen's picture

No biggie....Call in the Sandy Hook actors, they always improve the mood... so upbeat !!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:10 | 3441690 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No problem, I bet they'll have the farce all back to very green by close!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:27 | 3441454 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Ignore the man behind the curtain... its just Krugman giving Ben a blow job.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:03 | 3441651 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Don't tell Bubbles!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:28 | 3441468 irie1029
irie1029's picture

I predict more of the same.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:29 | 3441469 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Why is it called "US Macro"?  Should be called "US Micro"!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441475 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Miss USA is winning!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441476 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

The roller-coaster cart has left the rails....cue Isaac Newton.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:29 | 3441477 reefermadness
reefermadness's picture

Oh wow

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441479 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Makes total sense.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:33 | 3441485 HD
HD's picture

Market panic - down nine S&P points.

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:36 | 3441505 gamera9
gamera9's picture

Or what MSM would call a buying opportunity of a lifetime

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:35 | 3441494 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

World macro is even worse. You can look whereever you want: Singpore Q1 GDP negative, Canadian jobs growth negative. US PPI negative. China's credit rating downgraded by Fitch for the first time since 1999. IMF, World Bank global 2013 GDP forecasts lowered. It goes on and on...

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:34 | 3441495 Petrus Romanus
Petrus Romanus's picture

WOW! Thanks Unce Ben and company, no future for me. Well, maybe I can go back into the military, I suspect there is a war on the horizon. YAY!

USA, USA ,USA!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:34 | 3441500 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Crude still has economic signalling capabilities, thank goodness.  Ben has all but killed the signals in equities and the curve.

 

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:41 | 3441538 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Economic signals, yes. 

 

However this does not equate to equities at all.  They have been very disconnected from any fundamentals or macro risk for months now.  Why would that change now?  The stock market is protected by the Fed.  Until the funds lose confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain stable, rising prices in the market it will not change.

 

 Even then the Fed could just buy 25Bil, 50 or even 100B worth of futures and just hold the market up - what is it to them?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:35 | 3441501 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Common now, any idiot knows that the stock market is the barometer for the economy, not the macro mumbo jumpo some Yale economics professor made up.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:39 | 3441837 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

it is not a barometer of the economy. The stock market is a barometer of how rich people and corporations are doing. They are fleecing the lower and middle class of their accumulated wealth and stealing from the future via deficits to generate record profits.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 18:55 | 3443249 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

great comment

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:17 | 3443498 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

We like to call it Capitalism. its not but we like to fuck up the language so people can't discuss what we do.

like murdering people and calling it collateral damage from unmanned aerial bomb strikes.

we have no morals,no ethics, no soul, we are the government. We are here to help you....

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:34 | 3441504 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So commodities (eg. Gold) are getting hit over things not really being green shoots?

Hmmm....

Would that be like bond rate % going down?  Sounds like it.

When do the cotton candy markets catch up?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:35 | 3441508 piceridu
piceridu's picture

BULLISHIT!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:48 | 3441563 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

" I ran out of Bullshit"

- Howard Beale

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywD7d9OzGCw

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:38 | 3441511 DavidC
DavidC's picture

While I've been losing money on this pumped, HFTed, aloged market over the last 4 years, I'm now beginning to find it quite amusing, given the data of the last week.

Bernanke has (as has been stated before) completely and utterly painted himself into a corner.

DavidC

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:37 | 3441514 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

How can this be happening?  Bernake is still buying bonds directly from the treasury and MBS from the banks!  This cant be happening!!!

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:29 | 3443338 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Pvt. Hudson, you can trust the decision-making of Lt. Gorman (along with his trusted civilian advisor from Goldman Sachs).

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:37 | 3441516 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Now...when to short the shit out of the major indices???

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:40 | 3441528 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

May puts.  Premiums may be high.  When this clusterfuck hits the skids, higher premiums won't matter.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 15:06 | 3442236 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Personally, I'm liking May-June calendar put spreads.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:43 | 3441546 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Sell in May is probably a good advice as always. Another debt ceiling debacle is scheduled May 18th when the temporary suspension of the US debt ceiling expires.

I for my part am also counting on managed futures funds (CTAs) which are doing the best during rapid crashes (1987, 2008).

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:38 | 3441521 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Fed is dumping commodities (and shorting them) to create deflation to offset the inflation they plan to bring through QE.

The only protected asset class is stocks - hence why there is no selling at all.  Funds view stocks as  next to no risk.  The Fed actively manipulates the futures so that protects the downside.

Macro economic has nothing to do with current stock prices.  Neither do earnings.  Funds view them as "safe" as bonds since the Fed is actively targeting them - why would you ever sell?

Down very small today but already off the lows.  Wait until 330 for the full recovery.  1650 next week in the sights.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:39 | 3441525 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Does this mean that 2:30PM ramp will be delayed to 2:45PM?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:41 | 3441530 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Despite the minuscule down opening, that motherfucker is already ramping back up into "Record Territory." Fucking cunts.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:42 | 3441545 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Please, someone, ask Bennie if he knows what failure looks like???

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:04 | 3441657 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bennie and krugman don't know their ass from a tea kettle! I invite them to my home town and see what the real world looks like, 40% shops in town closed, 60% of families in my county on welfare, crime up 25% in the last 2 months mainly homes being robbed of copper and anything that is not nailed to the floor but thats ok the dow is hitting all time highs!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 15:35 | 3442360 Law97
Law97's picture

Of course they know what your town looks like.  They just don't care.  In fact, that is what they want.  QE is targeted towards stocks and the Top 1%.  Plain and simple.  The desperation on Main Street is a plus because that keeps labor costs down and corporate earnings up. 

 

They know exactly what they are doing.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:44 | 3441547 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Once upon a free-er market this would be bullish for gold.

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