US Economic Data Plunges Most In 10 Months To 4-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture

Judging by the stock markets the last two weeks have been one of the best periods ever but the reality - hidden behind a smoke-screen of central bank liquidity and jawboning mirrors is dire. The last ten days have seen miss-after-miss in macro economic data - in fact this is the biggest plunge in macro data in 10 months. Despite the stock market's exuberance (at all-time highs), macro data has rolled over dramatically to 4-month lows. Of the major economic data points we have missed 18 of the last 20. With sentiment sagging, GDP revising lower, and earnings season disappointing, we can only imagine the BTFD opportunities that await.


  • Markit US PMI    Miss
  • ISM Manufacturing    Miss
  • ISM New York    Miss
  • Vehicle Sales    Miss
  • ADP Employment    Miss
  • ISM Services    Miss
  • Challenger Job Cuts     Miss
  • Initial Claims    Miss
  • Trade Balance    Beat
  • Non-Farm Payrolls    Miss
  • Hourly Earnings    Miss
  • NFIB Small Business    Miss
  • Wholesale Inventories    Miss
  • MBA Mortgage Apps   Miss
  • Import Prices    Miss
  • Initial Claims    Beat
  • Retail Sales    Miss
  • PPI    Miss
  • UMich Confidence    Miss
  • Business Inventories    Miss


The disconnect yawns ever wider...


With macro data plunging...


and it seems commodities saw it coming once again...


Charts: Bloomberg

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docj's picture


(Sorry gang, couldn't resist.)

caimen garou's picture

bullshitish, hows that? better?

McMolotov's picture

This has to be the worst case of collective insanity I've seen in my life. I feel like we're trapped in a room full of dynamite, and there's a bunch of 6-year-olds running around with matches.

adr's picture

Six year olds are actually pretty smart, most times they listen and see reality before adults.

I'd say it's a room full of dynamite with sixty year olds running around with matches with six year olds strapped to the barrels.

Middle_Finger_Market's picture

Bullish...bearish...looks like we all lose! Grow your own food! The true 1% who will benefit (they think) include none of us...its a zero sum game fellows, it's a zerohedge. 

Sofa King Confused's picture

When Ben was a kid he blew bubbles in the street, and he blew bubbles in the park, and he blew bubbles at school, and he even blew bubbles in his bedroom. Ben really liked to blow bubbles.





PS... If your reading this Ben, I saw bubbles yesterday, he wants you to call him.

McMolotov's picture

Good point since the older folks seem to be off their rockers, and it's the kids who'll end up being hurt the most in all of this.

DaveyJones's picture

considering what we're handing the children, I'd say your analogy is a blast 

GeezerGeek's picture

Actually, we're now all living in the Twilight Zone. More specifically, we're living in a little town called Peaksville and we're being ruled by Anthony Fremont. Anthony is a six year old boy who can do anything he wants using only his mind. He controls the entire town, enforcing his erratic will on everyone else. Everyone must think happy thoughts and adore Anthony or suffer the consequences. The title of the episode is "It's a Good Life". BTW, there is no escape from Peaksville.

Anthony reminds me of someone else who acts like a spoiled 6-year old. Substitute "It's a Good Recovery" for the original title and you'll feel a sense of deja vu.

Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

It sure is something to behold.  Not only does it defy logic, it may go down as one of the most foolish exercises in the history of finance. 

TheMerryPrankster's picture

And the bad news? The sprinkler system is filled with gasoline.

rotagen's picture

No biggie....Call in the Sandy Hook actors, they always improve the mood... so upbeat !!

SheepDog-One's picture

No problem, I bet they'll have the farce all back to very green by close!

FieldingMellish's picture

Ignore the man behind the curtain... its just Krugman giving Ben a blow job.

irie1029's picture

I predict more of the same.

MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Why is it called "US Macro"?  Should be called "US Micro"!'s picture

Miss USA is winning!

Smuckers's picture

The roller-coaster cart has left the rails....cue Isaac Newton.

JailBank's picture

Makes total sense.

HD's picture

Market panic - down nine S&P points.


gamera9's picture

Or what MSM would call a buying opportunity of a lifetime

swissaustrian's picture

World macro is even worse. You can look whereever you want: Singpore Q1 GDP negative, Canadian jobs growth negative. US PPI negative. China's credit rating downgraded by Fitch for the first time since 1999. IMF, World Bank global 2013 GDP forecasts lowered. It goes on and on...

Petrus Romanus's picture

WOW! Thanks Unce Ben and company, no future for me. Well, maybe I can go back into the military, I suspect there is a war on the horizon. YAY!


Glass Seagull's picture



Crude still has economic signalling capabilities, thank goodness.  Ben has all but killed the signals in equities and the curve.



WTF_247's picture

Economic signals, yes. 


However this does not equate to equities at all.  They have been very disconnected from any fundamentals or macro risk for months now.  Why would that change now?  The stock market is protected by the Fed.  Until the funds lose confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain stable, rising prices in the market it will not change.


 Even then the Fed could just buy 25Bil, 50 or even 100B worth of futures and just hold the market up - what is it to them?

TumblingDice's picture

Common now, any idiot knows that the stock market is the barometer for the economy, not the macro mumbo jumpo some Yale economics professor made up.

Tuffmug's picture

it is not a barometer of the economy. The stock market is a barometer of how rich people and corporations are doing. They are fleecing the lower and middle class of their accumulated wealth and stealing from the future via deficits to generate record profits.

TheMerryPrankster's picture

We like to call it Capitalism. its not but we like to fuck up the language so people can't discuss what we do.

like murdering people and calling it collateral damage from unmanned aerial bomb strikes.

we have no morals,no ethics, no soul, we are the government. We are here to help you....

ebworthen's picture

So commodities (eg. Gold) are getting hit over things not really being green shoots?


Would that be like bond rate % going down?  Sounds like it.

When do the cotton candy markets catch up?

DavidC's picture

While I've been losing money on this pumped, HFTed, aloged market over the last 4 years, I'm now beginning to find it quite amusing, given the data of the last week.

Bernanke has (as has been stated before) completely and utterly painted himself into a corner.


Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

How can this be happening?  Bernake is still buying bonds directly from the treasury and MBS from the banks!  This cant be happening!!!


Supernova Born's picture

Pvt. Hudson, you can trust the decision-making of Lt. Gorman (along with his trusted civilian advisor from Goldman Sachs).

waterwitch's picture

Now...when to short the shit out of the major indices???


orangegeek's picture

May puts.  Premiums may be high.  When this clusterfuck hits the skids, higher premiums won't matter.

Mr. Saxby's picture

Personally, I'm liking May-June calendar put spreads.

swissaustrian's picture

Sell in May is probably a good advice as always. Another debt ceiling debacle is scheduled May 18th when the temporary suspension of the US debt ceiling expires.

I for my part am also counting on managed futures funds (CTAs) which are doing the best during rapid crashes (1987, 2008).

WTF_247's picture

Fed is dumping commodities (and shorting them) to create deflation to offset the inflation they plan to bring through QE.

The only protected asset class is stocks - hence why there is no selling at all.  Funds view stocks as  next to no risk.  The Fed actively manipulates the futures so that protects the downside.

Macro economic has nothing to do with current stock prices.  Neither do earnings.  Funds view them as "safe" as bonds since the Fed is actively targeting them - why would you ever sell?

Down very small today but already off the lows.  Wait until 330 for the full recovery.  1650 next week in the sights.

Mr. Saxby's picture

Does this mean that 2:30PM ramp will be delayed to 2:45PM?

syntaxterror's picture

Despite the minuscule down opening, that motherfucker is already ramping back up into "Record Territory." Fucking cunts.

bnbdnb's picture

Please, someone, ask Bennie if he knows what failure looks like???

caimen garou's picture

bennie and krugman don't know their ass from a tea kettle! I invite them to my home town and see what the real world looks like, 40% shops in town closed, 60% of families in my county on welfare, crime up 25% in the last 2 months mainly homes being robbed of copper and anything that is not nailed to the floor but thats ok the dow is hitting all time highs!

Law97's picture

Of course they know what your town looks like.  They just don't care.  In fact, that is what they want.  QE is targeted towards stocks and the Top 1%.  Plain and simple.  The desperation on Main Street is a plus because that keeps labor costs down and corporate earnings up. 


They know exactly what they are doing.

razorthin's picture

Once upon a free-er market this would be bullish for gold.