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US Economic Data Plunges Most In 10 Months To 4-Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Judging by the stock markets the last two weeks have been one of the best periods ever but the reality - hidden behind a smoke-screen of central bank liquidity and jawboning mirrors is dire. The last ten days have seen miss-after-miss in macro economic data - in fact this is the biggest plunge in macro data in 10 months. Despite the stock market's exuberance (at all-time highs), macro data has rolled over dramatically to 4-month lows. Of the major economic data points we have missed 18 of the last 20. With sentiment sagging, GDP revising lower, and earnings season disappointing, we can only imagine the BTFD opportunities that await.

 

  • Markit US PMI    Miss
  • ISM Manufacturing    Miss
  • ISM New York    Miss
  • Vehicle Sales    Miss
  • ADP Employment    Miss
  • ISM Services    Miss
  • Challenger Job Cuts     Miss
  • Initial Claims    Miss
  • Trade Balance    Beat
  • Non-Farm Payrolls    Miss
  • Hourly Earnings    Miss
  • NFIB Small Business    Miss
  • Wholesale Inventories    Miss
  • MBA Mortgage Apps   Miss
  • Import Prices    Miss
  • Initial Claims    Beat
  • Retail Sales    Miss
  • PPI    Miss
  • UMich Confidence    Miss
  • Business Inventories    Miss

 

The disconnect yawns ever wider...

 

With macro data plunging...

 

and it seems commodities saw it coming once again...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:26 | 3441447 docj
docj's picture

BULLISH!!

(Sorry gang, couldn't resist.)

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:32 | 3441488 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bullshitish, hows that? better?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:41 | 3441527 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

This has to be the worst case of collective insanity I've seen in my life. I feel like we're trapped in a room full of dynamite, and there's a bunch of 6-year-olds running around with matches.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:47 | 3441570 adr
adr's picture

Six year olds are actually pretty smart, most times they listen and see reality before adults.

I'd say it's a room full of dynamite with sixty year olds running around with matches with six year olds strapped to the barrels.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:50 | 3441585 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

Bullish...bearish...looks like we all lose! Grow your own food! The true 1% who will benefit (they think) include none of us...its a zero sum game fellows, it's a zerohedge. 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:58 | 3441628 Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

#aquaponics

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:58 | 3441629 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

When Ben was a kid he blew bubbles in the street, and he blew bubbles in the park, and he blew bubbles at school, and he even blew bubbles in his bedroom. Ben really liked to blow bubbles.

 

 

 

 

PS... If your reading this Ben, I saw bubbles yesterday, he wants you to call him.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:51 | 3441603 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Good point since the older folks seem to be off their rockers, and it's the kids who'll end up being hurt the most in all of this.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:34 | 3442080 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

considering what we're handing the children, I'd say your analogy is a blast 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:55 | 3441610 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Actually, we're now all living in the Twilight Zone. More specifically, we're living in a little town called Peaksville and we're being ruled by Anthony Fremont. Anthony is a six year old boy who can do anything he wants using only his mind. He controls the entire town, enforcing his erratic will on everyone else. Everyone must think happy thoughts and adore Anthony or suffer the consequences. The title of the episode is "It's a Good Life". BTW, there is no escape from Peaksville. 

http://www.hulu.com/watch/440799

Anthony reminds me of someone else who acts like a spoiled 6-year old. Substitute "It's a Good Recovery" for the original title and you'll feel a sense of deja vu.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:40 | 3441835 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Freakin' commercials!!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:07 | 3441678 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

It sure is something to behold.  Not only does it defy logic, it may go down as one of the most foolish exercises in the history of finance. 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:20 | 3443503 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

And the bad news? The sprinkler system is filled with gasoline.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:01 | 3441647 rotagen
rotagen's picture

No biggie....Call in the Sandy Hook actors, they always improve the mood... so upbeat !!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:10 | 3441690 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No problem, I bet they'll have the farce all back to very green by close!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:27 | 3441454 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Ignore the man behind the curtain... its just Krugman giving Ben a blow job.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:03 | 3441651 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Don't tell Bubbles!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:28 | 3441468 irie1029
irie1029's picture

I predict more of the same.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:29 | 3441469 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Why is it called "US Macro"?  Should be called "US Micro"!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441475 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Miss USA is winning!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441476 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

The roller-coaster cart has left the rails....cue Isaac Newton.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:29 | 3441477 reefermadness
reefermadness's picture

Oh wow

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:30 | 3441479 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Makes total sense.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:33 | 3441485 HD
HD's picture

Market panic - down nine S&P points.

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:36 | 3441505 gamera9
gamera9's picture

Or what MSM would call a buying opportunity of a lifetime

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:35 | 3441494 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

World macro is even worse. You can look whereever you want: Singpore Q1 GDP negative, Canadian jobs growth negative. US PPI negative. China's credit rating downgraded by Fitch for the first time since 1999. IMF, World Bank global 2013 GDP forecasts lowered. It goes on and on...

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:34 | 3441495 Petrus Romanus
Petrus Romanus's picture

WOW! Thanks Unce Ben and company, no future for me. Well, maybe I can go back into the military, I suspect there is a war on the horizon. YAY!

USA, USA ,USA!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:34 | 3441500 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Crude still has economic signalling capabilities, thank goodness.  Ben has all but killed the signals in equities and the curve.

 

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:41 | 3441538 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Economic signals, yes. 

 

However this does not equate to equities at all.  They have been very disconnected from any fundamentals or macro risk for months now.  Why would that change now?  The stock market is protected by the Fed.  Until the funds lose confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain stable, rising prices in the market it will not change.

 

 Even then the Fed could just buy 25Bil, 50 or even 100B worth of futures and just hold the market up - what is it to them?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:35 | 3441501 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Common now, any idiot knows that the stock market is the barometer for the economy, not the macro mumbo jumpo some Yale economics professor made up.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:39 | 3441837 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

it is not a barometer of the economy. The stock market is a barometer of how rich people and corporations are doing. They are fleecing the lower and middle class of their accumulated wealth and stealing from the future via deficits to generate record profits.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 18:55 | 3443249 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

great comment

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:17 | 3443498 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

We like to call it Capitalism. its not but we like to fuck up the language so people can't discuss what we do.

like murdering people and calling it collateral damage from unmanned aerial bomb strikes.

we have no morals,no ethics, no soul, we are the government. We are here to help you....

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:34 | 3441504 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So commodities (eg. Gold) are getting hit over things not really being green shoots?

Hmmm....

Would that be like bond rate % going down?  Sounds like it.

When do the cotton candy markets catch up?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:35 | 3441508 piceridu
piceridu's picture

BULLISHIT!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:48 | 3441563 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

" I ran out of Bullshit"

- Howard Beale

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywD7d9OzGCw

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:38 | 3441511 DavidC
DavidC's picture

While I've been losing money on this pumped, HFTed, aloged market over the last 4 years, I'm now beginning to find it quite amusing, given the data of the last week.

Bernanke has (as has been stated before) completely and utterly painted himself into a corner.

DavidC

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:37 | 3441514 Let The Wurlitz...
Let The Wurlitzer Play's picture

How can this be happening?  Bernake is still buying bonds directly from the treasury and MBS from the banks!  This cant be happening!!!

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:29 | 3443338 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Pvt. Hudson, you can trust the decision-making of Lt. Gorman (along with his trusted civilian advisor from Goldman Sachs).

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:37 | 3441516 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Now...when to short the shit out of the major indices???

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:40 | 3441528 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

May puts.  Premiums may be high.  When this clusterfuck hits the skids, higher premiums won't matter.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 15:06 | 3442236 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Personally, I'm liking May-June calendar put spreads.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:43 | 3441546 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Sell in May is probably a good advice as always. Another debt ceiling debacle is scheduled May 18th when the temporary suspension of the US debt ceiling expires.

I for my part am also counting on managed futures funds (CTAs) which are doing the best during rapid crashes (1987, 2008).

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:38 | 3441521 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Fed is dumping commodities (and shorting them) to create deflation to offset the inflation they plan to bring through QE.

The only protected asset class is stocks - hence why there is no selling at all.  Funds view stocks as  next to no risk.  The Fed actively manipulates the futures so that protects the downside.

Macro economic has nothing to do with current stock prices.  Neither do earnings.  Funds view them as "safe" as bonds since the Fed is actively targeting them - why would you ever sell?

Down very small today but already off the lows.  Wait until 330 for the full recovery.  1650 next week in the sights.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:39 | 3441525 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Does this mean that 2:30PM ramp will be delayed to 2:45PM?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:41 | 3441530 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

Despite the minuscule down opening, that motherfucker is already ramping back up into "Record Territory." Fucking cunts.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:42 | 3441545 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Please, someone, ask Bennie if he knows what failure looks like???

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:04 | 3441657 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bennie and krugman don't know their ass from a tea kettle! I invite them to my home town and see what the real world looks like, 40% shops in town closed, 60% of families in my county on welfare, crime up 25% in the last 2 months mainly homes being robbed of copper and anything that is not nailed to the floor but thats ok the dow is hitting all time highs!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 15:35 | 3442360 Law97
Law97's picture

Of course they know what your town looks like.  They just don't care.  In fact, that is what they want.  QE is targeted towards stocks and the Top 1%.  Plain and simple.  The desperation on Main Street is a plus because that keeps labor costs down and corporate earnings up. 

 

They know exactly what they are doing.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:44 | 3441547 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Once upon a free-er market this would be bullish for gold.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:00 | 3441635 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

dow 15000!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:44 | 3441557 Dishonesty Fatigue
Dishonesty Fatigue's picture

The disconnect between the S&P and US Macro looks exactly like the disconnect between counterfeit and PM. Is anyone else terrified by how upside down the world is?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:45 | 3441558 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

There's war out there - keeping the Euro up to hold the US Dollar down. 

 

It's amazing that markets shot up while the US Dollar did the same. 

 

Like a Jenga tower being held up with two wooden blocks.  Good luck pulling that next block out of  the pile and adding it to the top.

 

When the US Dollar finally takes off (ie: the Euro falls again - below 1.20), it's curtains for the US indexes - Ben and Barry know this - 3-4B spent per day isn't going to cut it.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:58 | 3441627 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Then he spends 30B per day.

Uncle Ben can single handedly push the futures up to whatever level he wants.  There is no limit on the Fed balance sheet.  He could buy unlimited ES contracts each day and just settle for cash on expiration.  Gain or loss does not matter.  Since no one is able to stop him (barring Congress), there is no reason that will not happen.  Congress is elected by all of the same guys that benefit from stock price appreciation.  Do you actually think they would do anything to stop that?  Besides the Fed can do it on stealth and no one would know since they will not allow an audit.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:44 | 3441560 miker
miker's picture

You can rest assured that the more extreme things get (stocks up, gold down), the more deadly the situation is becoming.  These types of manipulations can only be accomplished from on top and with lots of money.  The ecnomy is tanking.  Its all they can do.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:00 | 3441641 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

That's the way I see it. But I'm just f*cking sick of how long this bullshit can carry on.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:11 | 3443464 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

It takes a long rime to turn a sinking cruise ship around and run it aground on a shallow beach so the rats can escape without drowning, aka exit strategy.

We are merely passnegers, they own the ship and the ocean yet can only control one of them.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:48 | 3441565 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

All it take is for the JGB's to spike up in yield and the game will be up, as people realises that QE is not a free ride and the carry trade ends. Something will break badly soon with all this intervention by the central banks.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:33 | 3441807 css1971
css1971's picture

JGBs will never spike up. The BOJ is buyer of all. JPY will spike down instead.

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:49 | 3441572 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

And natural gas just doesn't care.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:52 | 3441609 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

frack is back

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:08 | 3443453 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Once you go Frack you never go back (you have no potable water left).

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:47 | 3441580 ThalesOfMiletus
ThalesOfMiletus's picture

It's the Summer of Recovery, part Two: Electric Boogaloo.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 12:59 | 3441633 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Don't worry - the idiots on CNBC will start talking "green shoots" again soon.  If the market is going up in the face of repeated deterioration, think about how high it will go when the green shoots crap starts again.  2000 on SP500?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:11 | 3441658 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

holy fucking shit, i know we sound like broken records, but this shit is getting ridic.

 

can they not let the market drop significantly once?

 

i mean markets like japan and all of europe are rigged also, but at least they will occasionally have big down days. 

 

this market we can get bad data after bad data and we r fucking flat pretty much and prob going to close green. 

 

how is there not investigation into this criminal act by the fed and banksters yet?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:30 | 3441799 css1971
css1971's picture

Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:09 | 3441683 razorthin
razorthin's picture

But McDonalds is flying high.  Bullish on fat asses.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:35 | 3443344 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

I genuinely dreamed last night that I got to watch Chicken McNuggets being "produced".

It was far more disgusting than I had ever imagined.

I'm pretty sure the dream was an allegory.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 15:09 | 3441721 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

The Economy tanking? That's all well and good.

I can't believe I still actually shout at my screen.

POMO is not only following a well defined trendline up, it is going intraday parabolic ...

Did I say POMO? Excuse me, I meant the SPY ...

AND defensives are well bid in the evil, calculative absence of mind, known as quantitative finance.

Star Trek comes to mind.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:19 | 3441735 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

LMFAO!!!  Dow Jones down 5.  S&P500 down 5.75 (not a typo)

 

Barry:  Hey Ben.  Focus on those Dow 30 and keep printing.

 

Ben:  Will do.  Calling it in to the algo programmer right now.

 

Barry:  Good job Ben.

 

Ben:  Fuck you Barry and that fat ass wife of yours too.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 18:38 | 3443205 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

He has a fat wife? must be a front -he's queer as a 3 dollar bill. 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 13:47 | 3441866 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

It will go down only when they're ready for it to go down.  Setting up for another SQUEEZE?

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:19 | 3442000 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Hmm... no wonder their primary focus is on guns..........

http://www.information-management.com/news/IT-hiring-at-near-standstill-...

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:43 | 3442120 De minimus
De minimus's picture

And bullets.

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 20:01 | 3443435 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Also why personal computer sales are collapsing:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/the-end-of-the-home-...

 

Now this is what an industry looks like when it goes into free-fall.

Market research firm IDC reported yesterday that worldwide personal computers had their sharpest drop ever for a single quarter, plummeting nearly 14 percent compared to the first three months of 2012.

 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:23 | 3442012 Dan Conway
Dan Conway's picture

You gotta love the new normal!

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 14:43 | 3442129 bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

the money ben creates is intended for the plutocracy not for anyone else so it goes where the plutocracy wants to put it if they don't like pm's and prefer equities that's what happens why don' you zhers get that 

Fri, 04/12/2013 - 19:38 | 3443358 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Maybe some of us ZH'ers can be like remoras riding on a shark. Too small to catch our own in this "market", too small to be worth eating.

More likely, trying to make money in this market would cause us to be worthy of the other name for remoras, suckerfishes[true fact].

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