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Gold And 5 Years Of Global Central Bank 'Temporary And Emergency' Monetary Policy Actions
When all this began, we were reassured that extraordinary balance sheet expansion and the ZIRP environment were merely temporary and only to get us through the short-term emergency. The following chart and table covering the monetary-policy-on-steroids of the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ suggests this is a long-emergency indeed... and the current disconnect between the 'planned' expansion of central bank balance sheets and gold suggests that Cyprus' central bank head may just replace UK's Gordon Brown as the worst market-timer ever.
Five years of temporary, emergency-only actions by the world's central banks... (click for large more legible version)
As all of these actions took place and the balance sheets of the world's central banks exploded - and each time, Gold has front-run that move...
This time it appears (once again) gold was right (in its guess to April 2013) and unless all the central bankers in the world are about to be forced to stop the seemingly unstoppable plans they have (black arrow indicates Fed and BoJ expectations alone), then Gold (just as in late 2012) is set to recover significantly.
Charts: IMF and Bloomberg
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$1450 to go until the singularity.
on the gold takedown friday: http://www.activistpost.com/2013/04/assault-on-gold-update.html
Doing god's work:
Quote : Reports suggest that a 4 million ounce (124.4 tonnes) sell-order, worth $6 billion (Dh22 billion) at current prices, by a large investment bank spooked the markets and led to this decline.“It appears that the significant selling pressure last Friday was amplified by a four million ounces (124.4 tons of gold) selling order, to be executed on Comex opening. This was clearly too much for a relatively empty market to handle, and the initial pressure resulted into waves of selling, which in turn attracted further selling all the way down,” Gerhard Schubert, Head of Precious Metals at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, wrote in his weekly report.
http://www.emirates247.com/markets/g...04-14-1.502385
I bet it was Goldman, textbook stop hunting:
Who in their right mind would dump 4m ozs at once unless they were trying to knock the price down? Not even trying to hide it now.
Who?..
It's a repeated M.O. and is not being done for any other purpose than manipulation by an entity or entities for whom paper availability and profitability is of no concern.
My course of action is that although it's been said that a gold miner is a liar standing next to a hole in the ground, given the present circumstances and knowing the reasons why…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiGjxxytLy8
It is a Clown Show isn't it?
Absurd to listen to the gold bears trying to explain it all away when it is blatantly right in front of their face.
Spring Bargain Sale... Thanks...
If you can GET the physical, yes. I was only able to get ONE OUNCE late Friday afternoon ay my LCS...
Like...dude. Is this a f*&king game show or what? Like EconJeopardy with Alec Trabec. Where is that Vanna White?
I got your answer right here:
Gordon Brown.
Now, ask me a real question.
Perhaps, people that just figured out that the banksters were going to restrict credit, bust the debtors, consolidate their assets under their front corporations...
You really don't think the people who run JP Morgan are going to hyperinflate while doling out 3.5% 30 year mortgages, do you?
That's an "I dare you suckah" loan...
It is well established that possessing gold is better than anything in the bank over insurance limits. At some point, it will likely be better than anything in the bank at all.
But... when credit collapses, and it will collapse by design, don't expect people to pay $1450 for an ounce of gold when they don't have a job, a retirement, health insurance, a bank account, an investement account, etc...
#1 directive for all people is simple - gain control over the necessities of life. Anyone who doesn't do this is set up to regret the future - perhaps dearly.
Jeff
"Who in their right mind would dump 4m ozs"
Somebody who "knows" its going to capitulate and they can buy back even cheaper?
So if it's ok to dump 6 billion dollars worth in an instant does that mean it will be ok for a hedge fund at some point to buy 6 or maybe 10 billion worth just as quick ? or would the act of buying that much draw in the SEC, HMS, FBI, CIA, CFTC etc ? just curious.
My guess is that if you are ordained, you may diddle the market as needed and no authoritative body will do a damn thing.
If you are not ordained, or rogue, the markets will be shut down, rules changed, etc to prevent you from a corner.
That's how they did Hunt.
My guess is that if you are a hedge fund you depend on leverage, which is credit from a TBTF and there are certain things you don't do . . .
oh man that would be killer
lets hope
No, rumor says it's Merrill Lynch, but still look at the
poor Comex stockpile pic
http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest...
Little over 6 million Oz ( 200 t) of Gold and someone just dump 70% of Total Crimex inventory?
Imaging the buyer ask for the Delivery? Amazing, how those clowns moving fresh air around by tonnes and getting away with this..
And those Crooks are traded 500 T worth of Paper Gold on Friday alone?
Crimex leveraged like 1:100 at least..
Where did you hear about Merrill beeing the seller?
-----
That pic out of Tekoa da Silva's article is taken at the BOE's vault.
Compare this from the article: http://bullmarketthinking.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Gold-Reserves.jpg
To this: http://www.anorak.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/PA-15373658.jpg
jbvtme
Paul Craig Roberts wrote:
"There are 16 ounces to one pound,"
Uh, there are about 12 troy ounces to a lb. He may be right, but he should review his comments before publishing...
1 pound = 14.5833333 troy ounces
JO and akak, you are both correct, see my explanation below. Thanks for the correction.
That is true, DoChen, but nobody, and I mean nobody, has used the troy pound (unlike the troy ounce) for literally hundreds of years.
It would be much more useful to talk about approximately 14.6 troy ounces in one ordinary (avoirdupois) pound.
Geez.. one little “awshit” wipes out 20 “attaboys”.
But it wouldn’t surprise me if, at his level he wasn’t currently hip to avdp. V troy and he’s got a big supply of attaboys just in the new book, alone.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avoirdupois
It depends on the measuring system. One has it with 12oz, the other with 16 oz.
You're both wrong. There are 14.58 troy ounces in 1 pound.
You have to specify which pound you are referring to --- avoirdupois, troy, tower, Roman, Russian, metric, etc.
The one you are implicitly referring to here is the avoirdupois pound, the one that Americans (and nobody else anymore) routinely use for expressing weights.
Totally as an aside, it is not often recognized that while the pound is a unit of weight, the kilogram is a unit of mass, which is not the same thing. If one went to the Moon, one would weigh only 1/6 as many pounds as on earth, whereas they would have exactly the same mass in kilograms.
4.116 is the magic number akak.
Above commenters: True re my sloppiness! Just what I critiqued P. C. Roberts of... My reference was approx. 12 toz to an avoirdupois lb. Now you all make me have to go and look it up...
EDIT:
JustObserving and akak
put the correct figure I was looking for, thank you for the correction (wiki: "troy ounce", 14.58 toz / lb).
***
EDIT:
While I am here writing, Au is up about $2.00, Pt up about $2.00 and Ag up about three cents, all essentially unchanged. (8:46 PM US ET) I was expecting más acción pués...
My stuff says Gold will have a rebound on the Daily, but longer term (weeks to months) we're still in a Bear Phase.
Gold Trader: “Expect Margin Calls Monday Morning As Big Players Do Whatever It Takes To Get Physical Metal”
April 14, 2013 | By Tekoa Da Silva
"Following Friday’s panic sell-off in gold, one of the world’s top gold traders and recent interview guest, Gary Savage, shared some powerful commentary on what the smart money is doing in the market right now.
Gary said, ”Let me be clear. Just because we got a max ‘Blees’ rating and a large ‘Buying On Weakness’ (BoW) number Friday doesn’t mean the bottom [actually] occurred [on] Friday. It almost certainly didn’t. Margin calls are going out Monday morning [which] is probably going to continue the selling at least into the first hour or two, and it could continue until options expiration, although I doubt we have anything like what we saw on Friday ahead of us. That was a stop-run, and there were obviously a whole lot of stops [hit] below $1523.
That being said I think the [large] BoW number is a clue that this was a manufactured event, and as such it means there are big players that want into the market. They want in because they know [where] the market is going. Of course there’s no way to know for sure unless you are the party or parties that created the [selling] event, [but] only they know for sure if the support was breached intentionally.
Because of the BoW, COT levels and duration of the intermediate and yearly cycle I believe this was a staged event. I’ve been through dozens of these yearly cycle lows in my career, I know how they go. I said weeks and months ago that almost no one would make it through [this bottom]. That [comment] wasn’t meant to be snide, I’ve just seen enough of these to know that technicals get broken during yearly cycle lows and [it] almost always knocks out the majority of traders.
This is just what happens during a yearly cycle low. This one in gold is exceptionally frustrating because it’s been manufactured and artificial. A normal rising intermediate cycle that should have tested $1900 was aborted and turned into a failed cycle. In my opinion [it was] probably [staged] by central banks in Germany, China, Russia, etc. to create a selling panic and bring physical into the market.
When Bernanke fired his next shot into the currency wars…with QE3 & QE4, it forced other countries to take action also to maintain currency crosses. Unlike our clueless Federal Reserve, there are plenty of people in the world that understand how this is going to end, and the role gold is going to play in the end game. Those players don’t care about the current price of gold in US dollars. All they care about is getting their hands on the actual physical metal, and they will do whatever necessary to accomplish that goal [in] preparation for the end game.
So if you are holding, don’t freak out on Monday morning if gold is down again. It almost certainly will be. But if this was an artificial event, and I’m confident it was, then once it’s finished gold is going much, much higher. The big players that created the event don’t do so to sit in a stagnate market. They do so because they know the manipulation has ended and there are big gains ahead as the secular trends resume with a vengeance.”
http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-expect-margin-calls-monday-mor...
Please, please let gold drop to $35/oz, so I can BTFD.
I would like to see all the central banks sell their gold, regardless of price. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Mr. Brown. His selling of UK gold was a significant act for undermining centerilized power
who bought his bottom?
irrespective of who bought it, Brown's ass belongs to the British peoples, pwnd.
Centerilized power is indeed the crustiest bit of the mattering thing, and all potential similiarities and analogies between Mr. Gordon Brown, gold dumper extraordinaire, and the prevalent color of excrement are purely coincidental.
Uh, I have a different vibe going here.
Central banks buy the gold high with the peoples' money, they sell it low to private oligarchs that control the central banks and governments, just ahead of policies that will drive the price up then central banks buy it back from the oligarch insiders.
That is actually blowing public money to consolidate power, not reduce it. More debt for the public who buy high, sell low, more money for criminal insiders who buy low and sell high.
The oligarchs run everything BIG - and that government, corporate, religious, schooling, military, drug cartel, banking, whatever.
That explains why the government give grenade launchers to the drug cartel that launder $378 billion in drug money through Wachovia and the only person who suffered was the Whistleblower who was fired.
The money was never reported recovered, either - oh, and the bank leased the drug running planes for the Sinaloa Cartel to run the drugs.
Oh, and Afghanistan is #1 in heroin production and #1 in marijuana production and the drugs aren't getting to Europe and America via donkey through Pakistan.
Connect the dots, people.
^THIS. Nailed it.
I'm expecting a Sunday night raid before Hong Kong opens in less than two hours.
Here we go....
Not yet ;-)
Looks like the East is BTMFD.
Why am I not surprised.
I wouldn't trust the Sinclairs/Turks/Embrys/Sprotts to tell you when PM's are about to become cheap. They have clear incentive for you to buy physical all day, ever day.
However, the long-term, 5+ year trend is up until the status quo breaks.
Up $15.50(+1.05%) at 12:45 GMT...dead cat bounce or the start of something more sustained?
Gordon Brown also signed up the English people to GBP1 trillion of Scottish banking debt. So in terms of betraying the people, he is still up there with J.Stalin.
1trillion? Small potatoes. Take a look at tHe US debt clock for some real crimes against humanity.
So whats neww on the Silver/Copper mine collapse? I still say those photos due not look real.
http://silverdoctors.com/10-of-us-annual-silver-supply-just-vaporized/
So I suppose there will be a force majure on any leasing contracts they are oblighted to fulfill. That may not be pretty.
Keep Stacking Thank You, August
The Kennecott operators anticipated the landslide weeks in advance, and built another road into the mine. Pretty much business as usual, besides cleanup of debris.
Gold will not be allowed to be an alternate currency until they can stop it no longer. Starting with the Swiss franc peg to the Euro ... the plan has been clear.
Yes, 10 minutes before the SNB announced the floor (not a peg) in 2011, gold dropped $10 out of nowhere.
If you live in a Club Fed region the price of gold won't matter -- given the plans they got: Your DNA will be your data. FEDCOIN! Bitchez.
If you live elsewhere, PM will matter. Decide where you'll live.
Monetary base in billions:
1980-01-01 133.425
2013-04-03: 2,985.652
Anything else is just gravy.
I notice Marketwatch.com puts the most positive unicorn unrealistic headlines on front page, does anyone have a better site for quick consolidated stock, bond, gold, oil price updates
If you're just seaching for a ticker:
http://netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-excha...
I'm hoping the price goes down to around $1,350 so this way hopefully I could actually buy an ounce for $1,500 .
I think $1,500 is the bottom, I don't care if my teeveee tells me it's $500 an ounce. I bet no dealer parts with it for less than $1,500.
~ $1250/oz is the current all-in average cost for the big miners. New projects like Barrick's Pascua Lama are estimated at $1500, ie it would be barely profitable right now.
The larget pure silver miners had average all in costs of $24.5 in 2012. Good luck to them if silver spikes to 20 which is technically not an outrageous call.
2008 crash taught me not to trust any balance sheets. Those cost could simply be made up.
For oil companies I'm sure they are, don't know much about gold miners though. Energy should be their main cost, hence if oil is high, their cost could be very very high. Still agnostic on their balance sheets.
Falling ore grades from an average of 2 gramms per ton in 2000 to about 0.5 gramms right now means that they have to mine 4 times the rock for 1 oz of gold compared to the beginning of the bull market. Projects are much more complex, take longer to permit and to develop. Add oil to the mix, wage inflation in several mining countries (SA, MEX, ARG etc.). Gold miners also didn't make any significant exploration discoveries, despite record capex.
All of these facts are explaining the massive underperformance of the miners vs. the metal.
Royalty and streaming companies have fix cost structures on the other hand. That's why their stocks have outperformed the metal.
makes sense
FYI - as PM's and other commodites fall in value, so does the miner's costs. Mining is energy intensive. As Oil falls, you see nice drops in miners cost inputs. Your figures get outdated every day Oil drops $1.
I've made this point for a long time already, but I can't prove it....yet.
I've asked other people to prove the opposite, that costs do not fall and only price falls, and nobody has taken the challenge.
You're the first one supporting my thesis.
I've been saying to crude oil doomers that crude oil prices $50 is not going to close down any rigs because the cost would fall also.
Gold is a great store of value Fonz. I like silver and platinum even more. Average in) My paper contracts in silver are around $26.25 average. I don't ever expect to take delivery. My silver and platinum (physical) :-D
yeah I do wish I had bought more platinum.
Fonz,
It does seem like platinum does not get discussed nearly enough as a potential store of value compared to gold, doesn't it? The same could be said for palladium as well. Hey, one can now even buy rhodium in bullion form, for that matter.
akak, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molybdenum
Yen, are you proposing investing in molybdenum?
With its relatively low value-to-weight ratio, it would not be easy to hold significant wealth in such a metal, and one would have to assay it and find a secondary buyer for whatever molybdenum one did accumulate and wish to sell. If one wanted to go that route and invest in minor or rare industrial metals, there are better possible alternatives such as indium, germanium, rhodium and iridium:
buy indium, germanium and iridium
buy rhodium
akak, I'll bet you own a few mines . Yes, I'm suggesting (rare earths) are good investments.
akak a friend and I were out for drinks about a month ago and he was telling me all about Rhodium. I know nothing about it and was more or less enjoying my beer when I get tapped on the shoulder. I look over and it is this John Gotti looking dude and he says to me and my friend "are you guys talking about me?" I must have had a genuine wtf look on my face and he continues "what do you two guys know about rhodium? Are you in the auto biz?". My friend (a big dude) matter of factly answers "nah it's cool, we know nothing about auto's, we just know the dollar is going to collapse". A few beers and some laughs later we find out this guy was a somebody in the industry, and he actively stockpiles rhodium, amongst a lot of other stuff, and I mean warehouses stacks.
Rhodium....I had no idea.
Interesting story Fonz!
I would have liked to have talked to that guy myself.
This is neither here nor there, but talking about the precious metals, I recently noted this odd but coincidental relationship in their annual worldwide mining production levels (plus or minus 10%):
Silver: 25,000 tonnes
Gold: 2500 tonnes
Platinum and Palladium (each): 250 tonnes
Rhodium: 25 tonnes
Iridium: 2.5 tonnes
Osmium: 0.25 tonne
Notice that last one, in particular --- there are only around 7500 troy ounces of osmium produced annually in the world! I would like to own an ounce of that!
Wow, those numbers are crazy. One thing that sticks out to me. I always believed that when the price of platinum rose too much palladium was substituted because it was more readily available, and therefore cheaper. According to those numbers, it seems they have similar quantities. Am I off in the way I was thinking?
Gentlemen, You both have valid arguements. /
Fonz, you are correct about palladium and platinum, substituting "cheaper" for "more readily available" for palladium.
Nevertheless, I was taught, and used to read quite often, that the price of palladium should never rise higher than around a third of the price of platinum for any extended period, as platinum is roughly three times more efficient a catalyst (the overwhelming industrial use of both metals) than palladium, so that anytime the price of palladium did rise above that level, platinum could be (in most cases) and would be substituted for palladium. Yet here we are, with palladium having been right around half the price of platinum for over two years now:
graph of platinum:palladium ratio
You wouldn't like it for very long. Don't touch it, or breathe near it.
Stick with silver. All those other silvery-looking metals are industrial. They may be expensive, but they aren't money.
In the sponge form, yes, I understand that osmium is quite noxious-smelling and toxic, due to the generation of highly toxic and volatile (yes, volatile!) osmium tetroxide when in contact with atmospheric oxygen. But I understand that that is not a problem with the bulk, solid metal --- analogous to the situation of finely divided magnesium being highly flammable vs. bulk magnesium not being so.
Gold. Lulz. I would rather have lead, food and water.
lead, food and water temporally translated or
transposed is nothing more than gold.
.
there are times when I think of it as solid
bourbon, when I've run amok.
i wonder what their all in costs were 4 years ago when silver was in the teens and climbing and gold was just breaking $1,000 and heading up.
The scales chosen for the last chart were entirely arbitrary. Why not keep the percentages equal? It would be less convincing.
Interest rates will stay near zero for a long time. How can they rise?
Housing market would collapse (further) and the Fed would have a rough time paying interest on all its bonds. Very few businesses are borrowing now at these ultra low rates...do you think they are more likely to borrow if rates rise?
I'm not defending ZIRP, I'm just saying no way will rates rise for the next 5-10 years.
Rates will rise if/when the debt markets force them to do so?
Why haven't they yet gone up in Japan? The public having saved, held the great fraction of the debt. With Abenomics we will now get an accelerated view of the end game. Big time canary in the coal mine for the rest of the world./ Got your popcorn?
What will make the market take action in the US? Maybe the Cypriot domino. We bailed out the Eurobanks big time in '08. (Actually we bailed out our banks by bailing out the Euro banks.) Will we (can we) bail out the Euro banks again? If we could, then why are we siezing Cypriot bank accounts? Is this a question of political necessity or the laws of economics? Does that matter? Perhaps a better question might be ....which laws do the politicians choose to honor?
Methinks the end game is afoot. The nascent inflation will push the rates up and start the bond market implosion.
We're experiencing slow crude oil shock.
Once it hits, everything will collapse, yields of bonds will go up.
EK Under normal functioning markets, I would totally agree. But a blow up in the bond market would kill the stock market, housing market....everything that QE1,2,3,4...were supposed to accomplish. The FED will be forced to act to continue suppressing rates, which is what will bring hyperinflation (loss of confidence, not necessarily higher prices) to the $USD. Its like, gold, silver, and oil (and all other commodities) have to take a shit before the FED will act. Hiking rates, or allowing yields to rise, in my opinion, simply isn't an option.
Not disagreeing with the article, but the chart at the end is obviously not done very well with gold already at the end of 2013 to make it look more correlated than it is.
Chart says Gold 6 Month lead, may be shifted 6 months to the right.
Gold Price plot is 6 mth lead and therefore overlaid +6 mth,, to illustrate it's usefulness as leading indicator of CB balance sheet expansion, or in other words as a barometer..
>>> ... we were reassured that extraordinary balance sheet expansion and the ZIRP environment were merely temporary and only to get us through the short-term emergency...<<<
Several thoughts:
1) A certain 19th century British economist, Walter Bagehot, having experienced and studied many boom and busts (what else do economists do - except for Krugman and Bernanke who apparently experience them as pornography) set down the law on crisis managemet: 'Lend liberally against quality assets at very high rates.' I think that Mr. Bagehot understood. Notice how we are doing the opposite? I think this proves the 'not invented here theory.'
2) I hope everybody has noticed the word, "experiemnt" creeping into the public economics discourse. You know...QE to infinity...is an experiment. Experiment my a&^. This is the beginning of the apologies and excuses from Bernanke et al after they realized that 'it ain't working.' Recall how Barney Frank having destroyed the hosing finance market, whined that "he just wanted to roll the dice a little bit."
3) Jim Sinclair gets it. So does James Turk.
4) Also from Bagehot:
No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political economist.
All CB roads lead to Basel. Where do you think all of these initiatives listed above we're discussed and agreed upon?
Fed up yet, munchkins?
I buy bullion, so Friday's drop was helpful to me and mine. Just a tad irked that its price rises now, again. Hey ho. Such is gold and silver, for the brave, and true...not for the paper puppets.
What amazes me it that gold falls 6% in eight hours. It is the biggest currency on the planet. When has anyone seen a paper currency fall this much in one day? But unlike all those other currencies, this one has been around for 6000 years. If the gold markets, with all the puts, calls, straddle trades, single, double and triple levered ETF's long and short etc that should stabilize the market but never seems to do so girates like this then the machinery for the gold market is either rigged or broken. How can such a huge market such as gold have more volatility than the Aussie dollar? The only explanation that makes sense is that the banks that control the markets have an interest in making it look unstable. But over the long term they do fail at this as golds price has averaged a 6% per year (at least) gain vs the US dollar over the last 50 years. And of course, over the last five years it has done even better, rising at a 12-14% rate.
There was a gold sell-off because those sitting on gold needed cash. Money is tight everywhere with this current contraction of credit.
And gold is the only thing that can be sold off to raise that cash?
Why are not bonds and stocks similarly crashing then?
That is a lame-ass excuse for what is an overwhelmingly obvious official intervention and manipulation.
Gold doesn’t pay yields or dividends. It just sits there next to the stockpile of guns, ammo and food.
It also does not yield a NEGATIVE interest rate, unlike US Treasuries today, nor does it depreciate in real value, much less at four or five times the laughably manipulated CPI numbers like most other (fictional) financial "assets".
Are you taking a big hit right now with the drop in gold and silver? Everybody seems real touchy at the moment, but do not despair; I think gold will rebound. I also believe in conspiracies, and that gold and silver have been manipulated, but history has shown when governments need cash they sell their gold, and right now the world's governments are badly in need of cash.
Paper gold fell: Big deal.
Let me know where I can get the physical for those 500 tons of gold IOUs that were dumped into the paper market last Friday to make it crash and then we'll talk.
All I see is the usual rats playing the paper game in a market which is supposedly about real Gold and yet the actual delivery for that comodity only happens in less than 1% of the contracts.
What's amazing is that people are willing to trade real physical Gold (a millenia-old store of value which has no counterparty risk and no risk of devaluation through money printing) at the price of Gold IOUs (which are derivatives, priced in USD, in a market which is easilly manipulated).
Standard economic theory should tell you that Gold IOUs should be far cheaper than physical Gold simply because they carry a far, far greater risk, more so in today's uncertain times when most of the counterparties have opaque balance sheets and the law is not applied to them anymore. If you're selling your physical Gold at the price dictated by a Gold IOU market dominate by short sellers whose financial viability is unclear and who are effectivelly outside the law, then you're a sucker.
Nope. USD is the biggest "currency" on the planet.
Gold (@ 1450 USD) is "down" 10% peak-trough Friday-Sunday because USD is rising. USD is the hands-down drug of choice for this world, for now at least.
It's o.k. with me if it goes on sale again tomorrow; it will be like buying an assault rifle and ammo in 2009.
This seems an appropriate musical accompaniment given the general topic/theme:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlJGrIyt-X8