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Gold, Silver In Asian Liquidation Mode As China Growth Slows More
UPDATE: Spot Gold $1426 (from $1564 highs Friday)
As Asia opens to the bloodbath that occurred in precious metals on Friday in the US, it would appear that more than a few traders got the 'tap on the shoulder'. Shanghai futures are limit-down and spot gold and silver prices are plunging once again as we suspect forced margin-calls and the raising of cash (to cover extreme variation margin - or capital reserves) needed in JGB positions, as we explained here. Liquidation is certainly the theme of the evening - investors are selling JGBs (6th day in a row of multiple-sigma moves in long-dated Japanese bonds 30Y +56bps off its post-BoJ lows at 1.60%!), selling Japanese stocks (Nikkei -128 pts, second biggest down day post-BoJ), selling US Treasuries (futures down), selling gold and silver (gold spot down over $100 from Friday's highs), and despite selling JPY early (retracing 30% of the weakness post-BoJ), JPY is practically unchanged (jerking lower only on the US futures open and Asian equity open) - it seems Mrs.Watanabe is struggling and unwinding some her excessively short JPY and long NKY positions.
Gold down over $100 from Friday's highs...
Which takes spot gold back to the 38.2% Fib retracement of the most recent low to high swing...
Tokyo COMEX Gold -9.2% (limit down) - looks like a giant post-BoJ roundtrip...
Silver ugly too...
Another day, another 4-sigma move in JGBs...
and post the China data...
- GDP Miss
- Retail Sales Miss
- Industrial Production Miss
- Fixed Asset Investment Miss
which stands in the face of the 'survey-driven' PMI data...
... everything is red - JGBs down, Japanese stocks down, US Stocks down, US Treasuries down, Gold and Silver down, Copper down, Oil down, Rubber futures limit down
Charts: Bloomberg
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They're running with paper blood.
I'm feeling all blobbed-up and weakly farmed. Poorly extorted in an 'american' citizenismistic mattering kind of way, even.
Classical to extortion business.
One can turn everyone in an extorter. Extorters only are when extorted are.
Get in tune with the US citizens...
You guys keep doing this with AnAnonymous not showing up any more -- pretty soon all the newbies will just think you're both crazy.
But only when you talk to each other. Actually that is pretty funny.
We have meta-jokes now on ZH.
Free Tibet!
"Beware you who would stare long into the abyss............Chinese Citizenism Citizen stare back"
Hardly any blobbing or extorting here....must be the rural Texan Citizenism.
Long rikshaws!
Rehypothecated blood? COMEX may as well go to 0.00.
Thank you Lord!!!!!
Im Buying,
Im STACKING!!!!!!
No you're not.
Bernank bucks r us
Here's a link to a terrific Seeking Alpha article, posted a day or two ago, "Is gold foreshadowing a stock market implosion?" The author draws a parallel to gold's decline in 2008 in advance of the decline in stocks. He thinks gold-selling is a sign that big financial institutions are in dire straits.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339951-is-gold-foreshadowing-a-stock-ma...
Time for the Widowmaker Trade?
http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/japanese-bonds-widowmaker-trade-081320124
We are going to see 13.
Volume on a scale of 1 to 10?
(and I thought 11 was bad...)
I am waiting for a 1300 handle to buy. Color me stupid...
I'd say you might only have to wait 20 min or so...
So yeah, a bit more than 20min but FT is reporting 13 handles. Awesome.
I think the gold holders (I among them) have to recognize that something significant has happened.
Namely, a lot of gold holders are going to be experiencing pain. Especially those who bought in around the fifteen handle and thought themselves lucky many months ago.
The signature of this central nervous system scar tissue will echo in the gold price for some time. These things heal but the memory of pain will remain compelling in the near term. GARCH, etc..
Fundamentals be damned, recovery will take some time. The class of natural gold buyers never was as large as the whole universe of investors, and a huge wave of schadenfreude (and worse) will be emanating from regime supporters in the coming days and weeks. Those people who woke up to gold slowly, and lately, are going to be feeling pretty burned. Izzy K, Joe Wiesenthal et al can barely contain her glee. They will bully, and it will work.
About those fundamentals though - real rates? Normalizing? Becoming positive? Anyone believe this?
Me neither.
After the ashes settle I can usually see the support line that stops these crashes and kick myself for being blind to it beforehand. Once again I look at the charts and see nothing, nothing short of about 1100 that is. Anyone out there who wants to help a newbie seeing other support levels? Gold has been like stocks in that it has driven upward for so long that the normal support lines are all but absent. And gold doesn't have the PPT or Fed to intervene and turn things around.
I love the PMs but be cautious about that 1300 level, I see no reason for the price to hit there and turn around. If risk assets start to sell off the paper metal markets are likely to get worse.
Edit: okay 1300 is the 50% retrace so go for it.
gold doesn't have the PPT - but if gold spirals down, signaling a deflationary spiral, as Cu Phd is trying to tell us, you can bet that equities won't be too far behind. then we get more of "deflation, making sure it doesn't happen here." and this time he means it, as we've already put 7 trillion or whatever down the rabbit hole.
I trade using supply and demand zones. Weekly on gold has 2 levels stacked. Usually when you see this price tends to attract to the lower level. Now with this being a weekly chart , it can take a while. So my 2 levels on this chart are 1431.34 to 1378. The other level is 1355 to 1306.
Silver on weekly I have 24.24 to 22.69 and 18.75 to 16.90.
Thats how I trade. I look for it to flip on lower time frames. I want to see a wave for example. We are getting lower lows, so when it finally makes a double bottom or higher low, then I watch price action. I usually look for an engulfing candle on time frame 5 minutes or 15 minutes. Usually after that happens price will come back to the candles base before the engulfing and just barely touch it and off it goes. When it rejects I enter or sometimes right after price action i like. Then i want to see it make a new high or low depending on if i am short or long especially with a counter trend trade. Thats how i know when to hold to my next levels. Not a fool proof method but its how I trade because shit happens. All you can do is stack the odds in your favor. Plan the trade, trade the plan.
Never buy on support. That is a short term sucker's game. If you want to know if the price is right then buy what is a value relative to two years down the road. Never buy based on what you feel is a good buying price. Always buy based on what you feel is a good selling price in the future
always buy with an eye on where you will sell or don't buy at all
There is a shitstorm coming.
fonz, the shitstorm is now, and im quite glad im holding physical cash as we speak................
You said this was the boring time dammit!
Well Kito, I plan on having both cash and PM's, and I am adding tomorrow. I've been waiting for this. What is more interesting to me is to see stocks stay levitated during this mess.
you are confident, buying a falling knife made of gold and silver.........i admire your bravery....charging forth on the front lines, carrying the flag.....................
https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQn_C_IiQiHs_-OFbYR...
some old fuck told me to be greedy when others are fearful and feardul when others are greedy. It was the last cognizant thing he said before he went nuts.
please tell me you werent in the bath with him at the time he uttered those words to you.....
Only a man with cash and no PM's could have the witty repartee that you have right now. I am trying to keep up and look cool but I keep coughing everytime I take a drag.
It is what it is Kito. As long as you will trade wine for cucumbers in a few months I will live to fight another day.
If the almighty dow however does not take a big shit I will never forgive you.
the DOW is ALMIGHTY for a reason fonz!!!!......... chin up fonz......i very well may be wrong and the delfationary plunge in assets may just precede a hyperinflation event.....perhaps if gold and silver drop more, i may pick up a few coins.....just in case.... :)
That's the spirit! (Call me I will sell you all my shit).
I'm just kidding
(seriously call me)
Cash, no worries. I'll have it before Joe Blow if a black swan occurs, but I don't see bank runs.
They'll happen so fast, U won't have time to see them. All 1's and 0's now...
HOLD!!!! HOLD!!! HOLD!!!! HOLD!!!.................
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGQvLwGLe40
what are you gonna buy fonz? eagles, maples, buffalos???? gold, silver?
I am partial to maples and I am thinking I may jump on platinum and some silver tomorrow. Although if I can actually get firesale prices I may try to go for all three.
And I picture myself more as Mathew Broderick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fjr5MSmxKJ0
LOL.....before i clicked the link, i was sure it was going to be a clip from ferris buellers day off......
Ferris was an optomist.
Fonz,
This is more like the battle we're in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_eZmEiyTo0
Spoiler; Vinzinni represents the bankers.
Orifice of Omaha?
that old fuck was me and I didn't go nuts.......am I????
Amazing to me too, it's the only thing that matters to the mainstream, but surely they can't stay sanguine much longer with currencies and commodities coming unhinged and the bond market a monetization farce.
Well at least I have the physical from my last silver purchase... can't seem to find any even close to spot nowdays. Junk silver is $5 over spot!
When spot goes down another $2 it will be $7 over if you know what I mean.
Physical price is not going lower from what I'm hearing.
sounds like this is it...
the long prophesied decoupling of the paper and physical PM markets
Yup
1430!! Total bloodbath
"Turn those machines back on!"
Once the weak hands are out of the market, gold will be in strong hands(which is the plan all along)
gold will have no where to go but up.
Yeah...Like the lower it goes the better - Right?? Geez! Your overlords will let you know when stupid is allowed to buy!
If I was a central banker, then I'd want to buy gold... at about an eleven handle.
Sum Ting Wong?
That APMEX ad never looked so good.
Poor Mr. Tulving tomorrow morning ....
And I hear that he is not in the best of moods on a good day!
Already completely cleaned out of fractionals, but still have full ounces available... not for long.
Did you hear anymore to those airplanes? Your comment caught my eye earlier.
Yes, it's ongoing. Traffic has died down a bit but it's still very different from the usual, lots of specific messages going out.
My suspicion is they're either coordinating tankers to service aircraft enroute to SK or they've stepped up the looking glass stuff in case there's an actual launch. No question the alert level is much higher.
when is he?
50 oz silver bar for $8 over spot on an oz/oz basis. No thanks.
so you are talking 8x50? over spot.
they really put the fuck in fucktard.
And the dollar is unch.
AHHHHHHH!!!!! (running around in circles and my helmet just fell off and spilled my whole bowl of rice pudding)
Maybe it will go to zero like bitcoin!
One can only hope!
Insane.. Nothing has been changed.. 1430
Is this trading in tandem with YEN (USDJPY) now?
Tulving
2011 America The Beautiful Vicksburg 5 Oz Coins In Sealed Mint Boxes
100 Five Ounce Coins In Original Mint Sealed Boxes
100 Coin Minimum
Buy @ ?
Picture
Spot + $2.49 Per Oz
2011 America The Beautiful Olympic 5 Oz Coins In Sealed Mint Boxes
100 Five Ounce Coins In Original Mint Sealed Boxes
100 Coin Minimum
Buy @ ?
Picture
Spot + $2.49 Per Oz
2011 America The Beautiful Chickasaw 5 Oz Coins In Sealed Mint Boxes
100 Five Ounce Coins In Original Mint Sealed Boxes
100 Coin Minimum
Buy @ ?
Picture
Spot + $2.49 Per Oz
2013 Sealed Mint Boxes Of 1 Oz Silver Canadian Antelope (Wildlife Series)
500 Brand New Coins In Each Sealed Box
500 Coin Minimum
Buy @ Spot + $1.70
Picture
Sold Out
2013 Sealed Mint Boxes Of 1 Oz Silver Canadian Bison (Wildlife Series)
500 Brand New Coins In Each Sealed Box - Last Coin In The Series.
500 Coin Minimum
Buy @ Spot + $1.75
Picture
Sold Out
2013 Sealed Mint Boxes Of 1 Oz. Silver American Eagles - Brand New Coins
500 Coin Minimum
(1 Sealed Box)
Buy @ Spot + $1.80
Picture
Sold Out
Almost $2 over spot and 500 coin minimum, and most items sold out..
LOL
Where's Pelosi to yell at those, "speculators?!"
ROTFL!!!
I expect the CME to immediately raise margins on silver and gold at any moment now due to "excessive volatility".
Funny, though, how they don't seem to be nearly as "excessively volatile" on the way up.
Yeah, I see the point for traders. Savers should wait for absolute bottom exchange rates. Its really a gift, my stack hasn't been bit-a-sized in the least...lol. I see the same happening with silver.
Apparently, they are expecting no growth, with silver getting hit too ;-)
Thought I read above: "Pelousi yelling on a speculum"
Morbid twisted imagery.
Need help....
"......as we suspect forced margin-calls and the raising of cash....."
So am I to assume that Gold and Gold only is sold to make margin calls? I am getting very tired of this shop worn excuse. Too convienent, to easy to pull out of the hat along with the rabbit.
Sorry, but don't buy it. The excuse that is.
Cog, I have posed that exact same question to a number of financial analysts and "experts" over the past 5 years, with nothing in response but uncomfortable silence and/or dirty looks.
There's no cash. Gold? Wtf is that good for here? If Tokyo is on the brink of collapse "say hello to Force Majore." A large international force will have to come in to deal with the Fukushima catastrophe "and go from there."
The highly leveraged paper market has to fail at some point. Perhaps we are at that point now. Anyone selling physical for $1444 ???
I know that Fofoa and others have claimed that this is EXACTLY the kind of thing that would be seen in the first stages of the collapse of the paper PM markets. Maybe, maybe ....
Right, and gold goes into hiding....
Physical has been hiding for years. There are going to be some sorry sons of bitches holding worthless paper eventually...
sorry or ANGRY?
Probably both. But what are they going to do about it. Bet they aren't holding physical PM of copper or lead either.
I just don't see this an an example of the market correcting itself. How can this have a happy ending? It seems ENTIRELY orchestrated by TPTB (Goldman calls, all these institutions dumping in unison). What is the fucking plan? I've got a family member whining because she bought gold at $1580 in the last week or two. I just wanted her to be in. I figure if she holds for a few years, she will be ahead of the game, in terms of purchasing power. I'll be mindfucking myself if I try to predict these 20% take downs. I am concerned that something sinister and intentional is going on, as opposed to a collapse (loss of control) of the system. I am afraid that "master" still has his hands on the noose.
criminal aerosol spray operations
You have to pay for the massage before you get the happy ending.
Personally, I never sell.
Neither do I.
Some of you regular comment readers probably noted my statements last week that long phys/short paper is the CB/PD play, and that the easy trade here is simply to mimic them. I short paper by purchasing GLD puts, as they are not actually backed by any verifiable metal holdings. GLD could go to zero, which would be a fantastic development for my long phys.
There's a song for that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkBnrC8041c
I agree, Cog....it's too simple of an explanation. This is a scare tactic. They want the sheeple to give up their gold so they can buy it back from the clearance rack.
I just went to my safe and gave the stack a "shhh, shhh.....there, there...it's ok"
Yes they are buying. "Gold is money and nothing else." Perhaps TPTB are using fiat as a tool, drive the price down force weak hands to sell, then THEY will scoop up all the gold possible thus owning massive amounts, then at some point fiat will be greatly devalued (purposely) versus the value of gold. The power and wealth amassed by these sociopaths will be truly amazing.
Not 'perhaps', it is 'definitely' what is happening. (+1 to you sir!)
They've been doing that since at least President Clinton and his boss Robert Rubin.
And maybe since the conquistadores.
An all out assault, some people are just lucky in their enemies timing ;-)
BIS should have taken gold to a Tier 1 asset. This smells of a liquidity problem somewhere. IMO.
Didn't we see this in 2008?
At least now we can all commiserate together on ZH !!!
Commiserate? Fuck, Hulk, I'm going to be buying hand over fist in a day or two if I can find any of the phyz.
I have to admit, 2008 was tough for me to get through, I almost gave up. Now, I'm an old hand at this...
Cyprus ramped the physical run; liquidity issues to the fore.
What you (holdbuysell) said is relevant to a comment I posted upthread, so I'll repeat it here:
Here's a link to a terrific Seeking Alpha article, posted a day or two ago, "Is gold foreshadowing a stock market implosion?" The author draws a parallel to gold's decline in 2008 in advance of the decline in stocks. He thinks gold-selling is a sign that big financial institutions are in dire straits.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1339951-is-gold-foreshadowing-a-stock-ma...
..and in other front page Reuters news...
"(Reuters) - Six people were strangled to death and one decapitated in the southern Mexican tourist resort of Cancun on Sunday, the state's deputy attorney general said, in the latest mass killing to strike the city in the last few weeks."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/14/mexico-crime-cancun-idUSL2N0D1...
crap, and i was so close to booking a trip for the family to club med cancun............maybe i should see about flights to north korea...........
Your level of sarcasm has increaed a lot.
ekm we have a precious metals bloodbath and I see WTI below $90.
If you are not very right very soon I will be extremely disappointed.
(Reuters - update): "all 7 were carrying physical silver"
my sarcasm increases exponentially with cb printing ;)
Damn. We have to outlaw more than one hand per person. How can we permit every human the ability to strangle? Everyone with high capacity hands, that is two, report for amputation. Do it for the children!
One of the better 'poor man's' sites for real time futures:
http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm
Hey compadres don't forget what they did to gold in '08, right before the shitstorm.
Ag is now $24.14... Stop losses getting nailed and margin calls for all paper pushers.
What an incredible GIFT for those with dry powder.
+1 - You'll need more than dry powder, though. A seller at these prices is going to get progressively harder to find.
90% junk at Apmex while it's still available.
I've been seaching the amounts for sale... the availability becomes less and less with each down-tick.
Premium there is $5.
All $1000 FV bags are now gone.
"Shoulda been here yesterday...."
Happily placed an order for 120 Toz of Argentum (approx $27.06/Toz)
Holy fuck. I can buy 1 ounce Buffalos for under 1500 and I'm afraid to hit the send button. What is happening to me !!!!
You don't want to leave a transaction trace? ;-)
and whatever you do, don't leave any DNA at the site of the transaction...
If I could get it for $1350, I'd splatter my DNA all over myself.
Dont be bitch.
North Korea will launch in 3...2...1...
Yeah an ES down 4 shittin' points! Oh, looking for EPS, PPT and BB to be there so,,,,,,don't sell fool!
Store of value?
I think Bart Chilton's ready to buy, the bottom's almost in.
Smoke and Mirrors / Bitchez
38% fib retrace from $681 to $1921 just hit. Bouncing back up or do we have to go to 50% ($1300)?
It's just nice to see something crash properly. :p
This is a slamming by the powers to shake out the wimps. Myself, I am getting the cash ready to try to find the bottom. No falling knife thing here.. wait for a strong upturn and then get in.. there is profit to be made here in long term holds.
Just logged in for the first time in years to state my affinity for this Phizz-fest.
Joyous Day!
Some Ennio Morricone seems appropriate. Enjoy.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-rHdSWZLpQ
.... and there it goes riding off into the sunset:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDedUcmvgL8
Everyone QUICK sell your shit to that nice man from the goldman sachs who is kind enough to take it off your hands before he changes his mind!!!!
Yeah, that was kind of the tell right there.
Potter's not selling, he's buying. Don't you see?
Post of the day.
So the Japanese move to inflate their economy is leading to a plunge in gold and silver.
Seems like they already failed badly in their mission...
Isn't this sign of DEFLATION?
Only happy thought...
Last week gold was at 6 bitcoin, now at 15 per ounce.
It's a checkpoint of hyperinflation, actually.
All hyperinflation episodes happen with massive deflation at the front end. Shit's about to get real.
Knew it was coming, still don't believe it's happening now.
We have been in hyperinflation since 2004 or so. It plateaued in 2008, got reduced in 2009, went back up to the plateau in 2012.
We are still in hyperinflation. That's why economy can't recover.
What about euro selling in 5 hours?
It's just Inflation right now. Fast inflation, quick enough that those paying attention notice it, but not so quick that people (sheeple) start to panic.
Hyper-speed inflation may just be waiting around the corner. Shizzle, I'm gettin' the willies.
All hyperinflation episodes happen with massive deflation at the front end. Shit's about to get real.
A-yup. Set the DeLorean for 1929 Marty.
Id get upset but i know they arnt going to stop printing. And I'm 27. lol.
Your young. You have your health. What the hell else do you need?
There's not going to be an ounce of physical in the market by the end of the week.
Jeebus, this might actually be the FOFOA thing happening for real.
You know, I HOPE and PRAY that we see $18 silver and $1000 gold again, because if their prices are knocked down that massively and artificially low, there will be ZERO physical available, the Comex and CME will be utterly blown up, the ETFs will be drained dry, and the whole sordid and fraudulent sham of a market in precious metals will be exposed for the corrupt mockery that it is, and self-destruct in spectacular form.
Bring it on!
You really think a $6 move in silver will blow up the Comex?
At this point, with REAL supply being what it is (not), why not?
Why aren't dealers jacking up premiums if there's a disconnect? I see 1 to $2 premiums. Doesn't really suggest a shortage.
Where are you seeing even $2 premiums and for what?
Gainesville had $2 premiums on 2013 eagles last I checked.
I don't see any physical shortage. I see physical at every dealers' site and all over ebay.
Thanks, but I'm getting "Available now for as low as $3.75 over spot!"