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Peak Recovery?
The strength of the recovery of US equity prices since the 'end' of the recession is equalled only by the post-1982 recovery. The path of recovery so far is eerily similar also. The chart below shows just what happens next - an insance melt-up followed by a purge unlike any other. 1987 deja-vu can't happen all over again? It's different this time.
Are we really set for the rocket-shot to the moon or did we learn nothing from that greed and 'wealth-chasing' behavior of 25 years ago?
Chart: Citi
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It's never different, but they will always tell you it is.
But this time is different. They promise! Double stampsie no eraseies!!
If I believed it was the same as '82, I would dump every penny into the S$P. This time may not be different, but I think it is different than in 1982.
This is NOT your father's recovery.
it's my imaginary friend's recovery
anybody who "learned" anything from '87 is either dead, retired, or drooling on themself so of course it's a brand new crowd of suckas
btw, if there's a another 1 year melt-up at this point to 20K djia and 2000 spx, maybe 5K COMPQ, with similar in other world markets, that would portend a market catastrophe of biblical proportion
It is different this time because there will be no S'n'P next time.
The downturn timing is just about Election Day, 2014, no? They will do anything to hold on beyond Election Day to win the house. Then, I think, collapse would be their wet dream.
I predict that ObamaCare will be postponed until after election day 2014. Congressional Democrats have finally gotten an inkling of what's in that bitch Pelosi's bill. It's electorial defeat.
The FED's $85B/mo isn't free. The first payment is due shortly, and for those dancing...stay close to a chair.
One comes to realize there is no chair, it is only YOU who bends over! CYA!!
I've been telling people they've sold the chairs and used the proceeds to put in the juke box.
When it ends, it's gonna be ugly.
It's ugly already, when it ends the economy will be mutilated.
Still a lot of upside left. Nice.
Until there isn't.
Difference is this time when it goes, it will be no bid.
The algos have the emergency exits chained shut.
Are you feeling brave ?
How high can Icarus fly?
Right up to the point his wings catch on fire. Then he becomes the phoenix! Don't be THAT guy!
We learned something alright. We learned how to repeat it.
Rhyming with 1982, does that mean there will be some sort of Iranian debacle in the desert?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw
The Bernanke will tip off bankers and pols when he will initiate the great correction. Many insider shorts will cash in- then buy back. You will not be tipped, just tipped over. Stay with your PMs. No fear.
In the early 1980's you could buy a 30 year treasury with a pretty big return, and stocks had a low Q-ratio. That is a good reason for stocks to rise. What is the argument today? My music says otherwise, but I'm pretty sure it's not 1982.
I maintain that every equities market bubble since 2000 is really a wealth transfer mechanism, particularly the last one. Wall Street has deduced that a bubble is the most effective means of extracting value from the dumb money (pension and 401(k)) that keeps pouring in. In 100 years, I expect that they will look at the 401(k) as one of the greatest and detrimental frauds perpetrated on the American people.
The past is no guarantee of the future, there is nothing like the present to confound it! ME
We are certainly in uncharted waters, CB's printing like drunk sailors in a whorehouse. Yet the unwashed masses have no clue what all of this means, hell, even the smart ones don't really get it either. We are in for a trail of tears like no other, as there will be no 'good' exit strategy for what our central planners are doing right now.
I doubt we crash tomorrow, or next week, or even next month; but crash to earth it will, just a matter of time comrades!
Stagflation is around the next bend in the river, as there will be no 'recovery' in the future, because we are led by criminals and immoral, unethical money junkies.
Where are the $30/hr jobs? Where is the money sanity, with rules that are followed? Paper wealth is our doom, FIAT thin air currency is a LIE, and our Gov't strips away our freedoms each and every day, for the LIE of security.
Ol Ben Franklin was right, that damn pannist that he was, 'We gave you a Republic, if you can keep it'. Well, we gave that away for the last time in 1913 and the progs have eviscerated the Constitution, one article at a time, ever since. We are truly slaves now and there is no getting around it. If you think things are getting any better, you are madder than that ol' hatter! Down the rabbit hole we go, where it ends, not one will know!
Having lived through one civil war is enough for me, but if it comes to be, I will die a free man rather than live as a slave on bent knee. As the sand of the hour glass pours, lookout for you and yours; stand ready for the hoard of trash, that comes to make ash.
I can no longer see a way out of this vice, as I will be one of the first to succumb to the horrors we face, am at the end of my line, just days away from the end of my time. They have me by the balls, and for no other reason than my own shortfalls, I will not raise a fist in anger, I will go about by demise with a head held high and laughter. Too bad evil and wickedness took our country down the path to hell, but our men of this great country have no backbone or swell.
It is a sad day indeed to watch our country slowly bleed, the vestages of greatness, where once great men built up a nation of moral creed. We have stooped to the debasement of the greed, the almighty dollar means more than a life in need.
So be it good ladies and gentlemen of the world, as I write this blasphemy of words, it will be to the trashcan hurled. To all things must an end come; this experiment of freedom has lost it's way and now must bomb. Goodly people will suffer great harm, at the hands of the Gov't arm, and for what? The next chapter will be an interesting one to live through, but I for one am not sure I will make it.
God Bless what was once America, land of the free, home of the brave! Get right with God through our Lord Christ Jesus, because eternity is a lot longer than the blink of an eye called life maturnity.
You had me right up to the talk about the old guy in the sky and his Tribal son.
No worries Klink, I still love and respect ya! I would never force my beliefs or religion on anyone, it was for those who have that belief that I said it to, and maybe others who may be wavering, and even the ones who don't. It is not for me to judge anyone. If you worship your toaster oven, then by all means, get right by Proctor and Gamble.
Have a good day.
Certainly nothing personal against you. Just had to throw in the snarky comment. I lost my love for organized religion years ago. Still beleive there is something greater than I out there but not what's written in the story book.
I like a lot of what I've read of yours. Then we share a mutual respect.
Good day Sir!
Indeed, I wish you a good life!
"Golly, look at those markets, must be a good time to buy in!"
The Tide is High.and I'm moving on.
In 1982 the wealth of the US was spread around so today is nothing like it was back then except for a few elite families. But even for them today their survival expectations have been greatly reduced. Statistics are not the friend of anyone today.
learn anything? the word learn is not in the vocabulary to fools such as bernake,krugman, and the rest of the so called e"con" omist! they will keep beating the dead horse until there is nothing left, not even enough to make glue.
Lets see...doom and gloom missing a 100% move. And now , doomer and gloomer. Lol
Yeah you're right,this is a real recovery.You should lever up,get as much cash from your credit cards and buy stocks,get a 2nd mortgage and buy stocks,sell your kids and buy stocks,you're going to be rich I promise.Just remember 1 thing,buy and hold,never sell.
Chart above says that we are now where the recovery was in 1986: booming GDP, gasoline 80 cents per gallon new cars selling for 7,000, avg monthly rent 350-400, credit card interest was tax deductible, student loan interest deductible. AND household median income was only 8K less than today. Ha
I think I see the face of Jesus in that chart...........
Nah that's just Lord Blankenfein's face, he's just doing God's work, remember!?!
Interbank F/X rates are bouncing all over the place. usd/jpy gapped down to 97.62. http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/
I think we're in for a volatile week.
Another year to go!! Time to go ALL-IN using margin.
Long Peak-BS! And hedge accordingly.
Just a month ago it was "picking up dimes in front of bulldozers". Now it's closer to nickels? pennies? Bitcoins?
This is a bubble. But it is only getting started. Well worn relationships are becoming detached from their foundations, yet willful ignorance is now the soup of the day. Once willful ignorance becomes ubiquitous, it either crashes or over extends into the realm of pure greed. I think the 2nd more likely now.
This can go much higher. The central banks are working in concert. Now, Japan throws in an extra $1tn over 2 years ! The numbers are not just large, they are sublime. One can't really grasp the magnitude.
Staples, Health, Utilities and Discretionary are now crushing it. Half the beta of the market, twice the performance of cyclicals this year. And the divergence really took off in January. As if an invisible hand were leveraging low beta in a positive feedback loop, an auto correlation.
That's a big hand. It is bizarre. Value shmalue. Who cares? There is liquidity and there is yield, the FED monetizing debt, and the Government spending $1tn more than it takes in, every year. The rich are bribed by market returns. The poor by SNAP, disability, medicare, etc.
BRICs are toast as far as returns go, Tech is dead and deflating, the Banks are a beta dead cat bounce. Where is the juice? In low beta sectors where the FED -> DEFICIT -> DOMESTIC SPENDING = BREAD AND CIRCUS resides.
It's difficult to think that Staples is a bubble. But rest assured, it is.