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All Abe-Inspired "Gold-In-JPY" Buyers Now Underwater

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Japan is opening ugly - the commodity rout continues with rubber, gold ($1325), and copper all down hard and stocks also being hit as liquidations continue. JGBs are modestly bid 1-2bps (though fading). JPY's bounce off the after-hours spike is fading...

JPY was its strongest at the start of October - and then the new Abenomics plan began. Very quickly the "long of gold in JPY terms" trade became extremely popular. After an impressive 16.4% rise into mid-February, gold-in-JPY corrected modestly; but the BoJ-inspired action smashed gold-in-JPY back up to its recent highs (helped by the seeming capitulation is JPY longs on the bigger-than-expected QQE). This appears to be the last straw on this trade. With JPY shorts so extremely positioned, the small rally on Thursday/Friday in JPY sent many scrambling to cover and, along with the need to unwind any and every asset to cover cash needs for JGB volatility, the avalanche began in gold-in-JPY. In 2 days, the entire Abe-inspired 'rally' in gold-in-JPY has been undone and all post-Abe buyers are now underwater. Whether this marks a short-term capitulation of these positions is unclear but CTFC CoT this week will be intriguing - and further JGB vol will not help. The rally in JPY of the last two days is the largest in 35 months - so someone clearly broke something...

Gold in JPY has retraced all its post-Abe gains...

It would appear that it is no longer moving from the lower left to the upper right...

and JPY is rallying faster than it has in 35 months...

 

and Gold is plunging on the Japanese open (as margin calls flush a few more out)...

 

Japanese interest rate volatility is surging higher and gold is being sold to match it still (as we discussed here)..

 

Something broke when the BoJ went full retard...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:32 | 3453995 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

magic /es up 10 off the lows. weeeee

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:54 | 3454108 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Seems like Jim Grant still likes it. This could be the dip everyone's been waiting for.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/04/jim-grant-on-gold-crash.html

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:08 | 3454212 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

This doesn't look like 'the dip everybody's waiting for'.  This looks more like the 'last, fuck what it looks like just close out the shorts and leave the specs holding the bag because we can't deliver and are going to default' move where everybody finds out that it's no longer possible to 'BTFD'.

 

There's NOTHING normal about this, and I agree with ebworthen - it's indicating something else is REALLY broken.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:12 | 3454239 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Looks like the miners went straight from unloved to completely fucked Al.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:30 | 3454327 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

No kidding.  It's pretty hard to believe - did you see the volumes?  Who's left to sell?  I can't reconcile the shortages I'm running into when looking for physical metal with the collapsing price, which is why I'm 100% convinced this is an engineered, pre'default move by the bullion banks, but it seems like the miners might be collateral damage.  Still, at this rate, what do they have, maybe 5 days until 0?!

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:38 | 3454394 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Al do you think these deals are wiped out or just sitting on stock that they refuse to sell at a loss? Is there a difference?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:51 | 3454470 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

I think it's reached the point where the best anyone can do is guess.

From TFA:

Something broke when the BoJ went full retard...

Something is broke and is getting broker quicker.

Funny how Abe has thrown everything into the fire in his efforts to devalue the JPY, yet now the opposite happens.

Also funny is how gold and silver, pretty much opposite of expectations, are taking such a massive hit at a time of substantial economic frailty and uncertainty.

This behavior might be expected, though, if the global economic system has reached a bifurcation point. A bifurcation occurs when a small smooth change made to the parameter values (the bifurcation parameters) of a system causes a sudden qualitative or topological change in its behavior.

If such a point has been reached, the current economic system will have moved beyond both predictability and control.

A graphical representation of the logistic map (an archetypal example of how complex, chaotic behavior can arise from very simple, non-linear dynamical equations) is a good way to illustrate this phenomenon.

Both the bifurcation diagram and the logistic map example below show how quickly, once a certain point is reached, a system which appears reasonably stable can be thrown into wild and bizarrely extreme perturbations by a very slight parameter change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LogisticMap_BifurcationDiagram.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Logistic_map_examples_small.gif

(The animated gif is also a decent way to visualize why weather forecast accuracy falls off so rapidly beyond three days in advance.)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:54 | 3455084 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

The book Jurassic Park seems to be our best guide at this point...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 04:41 | 3455292 draug
draug's picture

+1 for mentioning some real math. This is what happens to stable systems when you remove too many of the legs beneath it. It may ironically balloon into a bigger version of itself due to over-reacting counter forces, before crashing chaotically. Similar to our sun becoming a red giant before collapsing.

Bifurcations can happen to many quasi-stable systems, I wish more people realized our biosphere/climate is one of them. (Oh no he said the 'c' word, he must be a libarul!)

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:52 | 3454493 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I think that the selling's fund redemptions and real all-round panic in the sector that's making people lose sight of reality.  If there was some real indication that things had changed and the reasons for gold's price rise were no longer valid, if we'd had a real, retail public's all-in blow-off in gold and the stocks, followed by a crash, I could see it, and in that case being wiped out, or sitting around waiting for them to go to 0 would be the same thing.  But as gloomy as I am right now about the immediate turn, I still think that, barring some sort of (unlikely) global nationalization of miners, their day in the sun is still to come, and that anybody still around in the sector's thinking the same way and trying not to panic sell.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:44 | 3454757 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

A really crappy day for America...  Three dead, gold & stocks lost a lot of people a lot of money.

"Monday Massacres"

http://tinyurl.com/chbmdaq

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 04:41 | 3455296 draug
draug's picture

Lots more than three die every day? These three just got more media attention.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 05:55 | 3455335 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

You mean a real crappy day for the 99%. The money changers and their political servants did well today.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:41 | 3454417 shuckster
shuckster's picture

Shortages imply that demand exceeds supply - or, in a price fixing scenario, that prices are fixed too high and no one wants to fill that supply. I think its the ladder

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:12 | 3454610 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Right, price is to high, so SUPPLY dries up.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 16:37 | 3458030 shuckster
shuckster's picture

No, supply dries up because demand dries up. Usually, in a non-price fixing scenario, demand falls and prices fall, but because of price fixing, prices aren't falling with demand

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:48 | 3454452 kito
kito's picture

What shortages do you all speak of? I looked at several sites and all have gold and silver. The only real shortage I see is in ammo.....literally every site is sold out...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:56 | 3454515 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I don't buy physical metals over the internet, it's strictly cash and carry.  My local sources, which have historically been very well stocked, all the time, are both completely out of stock, and I was unable to call to find out if/when they will be getting more in, because the phone was busy all day.  Either they're no longer answering, or they're just dealing with a constant barrage of calls from buyers.  Either way, for me this is a shortage.  And I see the same reports from people all over the country. 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:57 | 3454534 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito there are a lot of sites claiming they are sold out. Take a look at apmex. Yes there is some stuff you can buy but much is out. For something being discarded globally that is pretty ironic. That being said I absolutely could have bought today and chose not to. They did have stuff where I go. That is the reason I did not buy. Which in retrspect, may have been pretty stupid of me.

It's all good though. Equity futures are up.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:04 | 3454576 kito
kito's picture

fonz apmex has 2013 gold and silver eagles available now....so does gainesville....i call bullshit on actual shortage........look at that dow fly!!!! such a lovely shade of green....

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:08 | 3454593 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

fwiw I think all these places have stock. They are just underwater at these prices and won't sell. I also know from experience (some site called NY mint....pieces of shit) that I locked in to some amazing prices several years ago, and their site indicated they had them in stock...well they cancelled the order and pretty much told me tough shit.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:14 | 3454621 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I don't know about that.  I assume that the dealers fully hedge their buys at the time of purchase and as such don't really care about the price they sell at, they're just taking the spread.  In any case, I can only talk about the shop I deal with directly, and at the moment they're both out of stock and either extremely busy taking orders, or no longer willing to take orders.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:17 | 3454640 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You know more than I do, and I believe you regarding your dealer. That's all I need to know.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:50 | 3454782 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

"If it weren't for the largesse of the taxpayer, we wouldn't be being told how detestable GOLD is at present."  In other words, without compelled subsidy by the taxpayer and strongarm dilution of their currency the banks wouldn't exist.  These same banks run a book which is diabolically opposed to precious metals.  If true market forces had taken their pound of flesh, there would not be the short sellers savaging precious metals.

Run for your life away from the house afire, the house (great shall be the fall thereof) which has embraced fraud and corruption and repudiated all disciplinary market forces.  Better to nurse a cockatrice within one's breast, better to sow a wind to reap the whirlwind.  Shun the global bankers.  Take all your labours (past, present, future) out of their arena of manipulation.  Repudiate the paper money.  Shun the financial instruments.  How long must you suffer the backbreaking enforced labours of morally bankrupt overmasters.  Demand your freedom.  Take possession of other storage vehicles of your soul's labour.  Let this people go.

 

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/04/jim-grant-on-gold-crash.html

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:16 | 3454629 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Kito.

You actually like this blatent manipulation of our economy and hence our livelyhoods?

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:17 | 3454646 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

scrappy you are incorrect there. Kito is on the same team. See below. Ekm is telling me cash under the mattress. W are all on the sam team, we just have different strategies.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:36 | 3454936 kito
kito's picture

Btw fonz, I hope you didn't bite on that short yen trade last week....it looked so easy...I warned you....be the contrarian..

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:25 | 3454683 kito
kito's picture

@scrappy..how do you translate my thoughts on pm shortages to the ridiculous notion that I enjoy blatant manipulation of the economy...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:55 | 3454797 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

I think you need to take another look Kito:

Gainesville Coins: over 16% premium on ASE's, they will not even ship until the end of April, they don't have any.

APMEX - explains why I hate the bastards, selling ASE'S at $29.70, fucking over 30% premium over spot.

Kitco- $27.42, 20% over spot, but they will only ship the fuckers to you if you live OUTSIDE of the US. Go Figure.

Provident - Completely sold out

Lear - Completely sold out

No supply issues here .... "Keep Moving, these are not the ASE's you were looking for"....

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 01:22 | 3455115 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Heard a commentary on BBC today talking about how 'technological advances' have INCREASED supplies of things like gold and silver (and oil and NG) and that this is one of the reasons why prices are headed down.  I call BS.  You're mining lower and lower grades, with lower yields now - overall production globally has been declining.   You have some MAJOR issues at the moment with existing mines shutting down or losing prouiction.  The same commentator talked of demand DROPPING from China and Indoa..... c'mon - BOTH have been INCREASING imports - with Indian dealers buying the dips like mad.  Meanwhile China and other eastern central banks are in=creasing their purchases.  

I'm surprised and astounded personally at the volume and depth of this smashdown but it is clearly a manipulatged one.  Saw a JPM exec this week and asked about the dropping inventories in their vaults.  A cryptic comment about being able to buy cheaper in the future makes far more sense now.

I suspect the bullion banks are under immense pressure to deliver metal they don't have - there's a scramble to drop the price and hopefully force weak hands out of the market while picking up physical at far cheaper prices.  No real risk.  If they can't cover the massive naked shorts on the downside and they DO default, they pay in cash at a far lower price.   Not like the CFTC is going to do anythign about manipulation.  Reports of computer systems crashing in London on Friday - preventing BUY orders makes it clear this is a one way trip that's been carefully orchestrated.  

With Boston today it makes you wonder what else os going on and coming up. Such massive manipulation smacks of desperation - the question is "What else is about to hit the fan?' 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:05 | 3454837 Pareto
Pareto's picture

you might be able to buy singles kito.  but you're not, repeat NOT buying 10 or 20 lots OTC, I don't give a shit what you read or heard.  and the premiums have definitely increased.  And foot traffic, based on what I saw today was extraordinary.  call bullshit all you want, thems the facts.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:37 | 3455059 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

"Sold out."

 

Yep. I looked ot buy a couple of presents for my dad at Apemx and they were sold out of those items they had quite a few of two weeks ago. There is no doubt lots of buyers are taking advantage of this dip. I'd love it if a whistleblower turned up exposing how much physical Goldman and some other investment companies were buying right now....that would be very interesting, indeed.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 01:24 | 3455116 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Whistleblowing gets you jail time or 'disappeared' these days.

Sat, 06/01/2013 - 17:13 | 3616983 shuckster
shuckster's picture

No one delivers. Its a game, don't you get it? If you request delivery, you are NF. You're not a team player. And you'll get #Breitbarted/VinceFostered/MarkMadoff'd/JFK'd/RFK'd/Arkancided/AbeLincoln'd/JamesGarfield'd/PrincessDiane'd,..... am I missing any????  

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:24 | 3454298 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

I guess Kyle Bass took one on the chin today in his 10 year sleep at night trade

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:37 | 3454385 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

If his time horizon's 10 years, I doubt he's worried.  Anyway I'm pretty sure those options he got for so cheap (the ones that are probably going to break his counterparty, though) are looking pretty good at the moment.  I wonder how he's planning on collecting, though, after the bank that sold them to him goes bust.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:35 | 3454368 Pete15
Pete15's picture

1.    

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000161422 Santelli on gold sell off. Jesus everyone is acting like this very fast correction is the end of the world? What has gold never lost 30% and regained to new highs? Rogers still isnt thinking thats its over and he will be a buyer at 1200 and has been saying that for months. The technical picture looks awful but every fundamental is still there. Was anyone planning of selling this year?? Because when I bought I said in about 10 years I can use gold to get some very nice shit. Im sorry a lot of ppl think that the end is going to come every year but it ant. Gold has been up 12 years in a row!! Taking this break is a good thing long term. Deflation is powerful and you better believe the FED will increase its purchases, the economy is still tanking and we arnt seeing massive inflation. The Black Swan this year can easily be more printing it makes sense when you see the FED talking down their bond purchases and the low growth. If the dollar gets stronger it will add to the easy excuses the FED will make. This Gold sell-off is fantastic for a lot of people, take advantage. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 06:06 | 3455345 new game
new game's picture

just snaking some shit out of the pipes...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:33 | 3453999 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

Ugly in Japan.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:45 | 3454044 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Japan REITs still rather resilient, so don't think people are calling BOJ's bluff (yet).. more like flushing out the housewives

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:44 | 3454048 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Big in Japan [Alphaville]

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyGqk3Uac_Y

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:51 | 3454975 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Yeahh baby!

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:35 | 3454005 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Good thing the Yen is getting stronger... that means Abe will need even more printing!

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:53 | 3454090 BigJim
BigJim's picture

And that can ONLY mean gold is going to $42 an ounce. See? The 'official' US price is right after all!

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:06 | 3454188 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

David Stockman said "we're going back to the gold standard one way or another."

I didn't know he had 1970 prices in mind

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:38 | 3454010 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

somebody got fucking rich today... and it wasn't me.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:05 | 3454184 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah, I feel like I was the one tongue punching the fart box

(phooey)

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:28 | 3454325 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Laugh of the day, knukles!!

Gonna use that one.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:06 | 3454194 delivered
delivered's picture

Wasn't me either as I guess neither of us were on the early "leaked" (of course by mistake) reports list that seem to be delivered to all of the insiders on a daily, check that, hourly basis. But remember the saying in real estate, you don't make money when you sell real estate you make it when you buy it at the right price. So the key know is to attack the buy opportunity at the right price and then sit back, watch one hell of a show, and when all of the dust settles, realize that not being long in maybe the most crowded, manipulated trades ever will be a very good thing (i.e.. long UST and US equities).

Let's face it as the Fed's plan (fairly safe assumption that they and other CBs are behind this action) is not working as hoped as the violent moves in asset classes is creating uncertainty, confusion, and/or outright panic which is horrible for capital formation and deployment (which is needed by the economy to create jobs). Nobody knows were to park their money now as all trades are so violent and extreme that this type of excessive speculation and volitility is exactly the opposite of what is needed in the global economy now. The inmates are clearly running the show again just like in 2008 when all hell broke loose.

There's just no way this type of action is healthy for a global economy at a very delicate moment which could easily tip over into a route in just about every asset class out there. Just too much debt and leverage that has too get unwound too quickly. No safety nets left unless the CBs once again turn to the favorite play in the book and inject liquidity to help "manage" the panic.

What a fucking mess as I'm also taking it on the chin with these hits and relentless selling that really has no basis other than being based in a major shit storm forming behind the scenes.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 04:27 | 3455286 css1971
css1971's picture

Well. We may find they're just holding bits of paper that say they're rich.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:40 | 3454011 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Sold all my FXY at a fat profit last year, but it was like pulling teeth to get my "financial advisor" with MS to do it. NEVER use a full service broker, they don't know any more than you do, and they cannot justify their commissions. Closed my account with MS and do everything for a small fee per transaction with someone else. Best thing I ever did. Sold all my Japan funds at a profit today, they were all underwater until Abe got elected, and the Nikkei ran like a scalded dog, sheer good luck for me.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:37 | 3454012 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Gartman'd

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:44 | 3454784 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  That was priceless.  "Hi, I'm Dennis Gartman", anal discharge>    

   Dennis; I'm short gold <vs> the euro.     Maria Barfaromo<  Well Dennis, HSBC home prices index was up this morning.

  Dennis< during commercial break> " Maria I'm paying CNBS a lot of money to pump my monthly " News Letter" .

   Fucking ' Piss-on -me' interveins and says it's all good. Santelli  barks back, and liesman questions Santellis' understanding of POMO (Santellis gold back ground)  Tripple Nelson 'Liesman' and gets supended for 3 days.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 03:20 | 3455233 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Instantaneously popped up in my mind upon reading the title of the post.

Dennis Gartman.

Edb5s win.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:39 | 3454013 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Never, ever go full retard, man.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:38 | 3454015 chump666
chump666's picture

If gold is hedged i.e Mrs Wantabes, they will offload.  Hence gold will sink further. 

This feels bad, real bad, Japan might start to crumble in it's bond markets.  Eyes on Fed/ECB cartel especially swap lines (FX).  EUR was bid last session and now, means that the proxy risk-on trade (EUR) has got the 1.30 line-drawn.  May crimp any major sell off.

Market isn't short...yet.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:39 | 3454020 gkumar
gkumar's picture

What about "Zer Hedge" inspired buyers of Gold, who bought your arguments that QE3 will send Gold to 2000,  who are neck deep shit now?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:48 | 3454046 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Fire sale.

I don't care if it goes to $400/ounce - it is real - tangible - and can't be "vaporized" or stolen from me.

This is war; war against:  fiat, corruption, ignoring the rule of law, and bailing out banks and corporations with taxpayer's money.

If I lose everything at least I'm not contributing to the casino and rewarding legerdemain and governmental oppression.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:52 | 3454094 balz
balz's picture

Gold can't go to zero.

Cash can't not go to zero.

They can always devaluate cash.

So whatever phony money is made, only gold is real in the end.

Sit tight, be right.

Nuff said.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:05 | 3454185 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

It's hard for me to buy it now, is the only problem.  Dealers out of stock, phones busy all day...  Imagine what the situation would (will?) be at $400.  Apparently not everybody out there is a mindless sheep waiting for their deposit account to be confiscated.

 

And in exactly what world does a crashing price go hand in hand with massively increased demand?  As you said, something's REALLY fucked up, and it can't be long now before we're all going to find out what that is.  I'm thinking default cascade, and 'bail-in' frenzy, probably triggered by derivatives blowups related to Cyprus banks, coupled with LBMA and Comex defaults and closures.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 01:26 | 3455117 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

At $400 you'd have $800 premiums IF there was any to be had

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:07 | 3454191 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

ebworthen, you need to know that soft commodities are not storable for a long time which means that you can not easily manipulate the price with futures or farmers would reduce quantity and stock to use would plummet.

Do not panic in Gold or Silver if nothing is happening in soft commodities.

What can push up the dollar is if the treasuries yield go very low, but to do that it requires printing. The Fed is attempting to sequester the printing it does in exchange for treasuries by paying interest on excess reserves.

However the gov spending through deficit does inject base money in the system. Also paying interest on the excess reserves takes away the moneyness of excess reserves and opens the door to central bank cash flow problems if deposits decide to flee on the commercial system. If deposit resist finanical repression and commercial bank are forced to pay higher interestr rates, those banks will in turn require interest from teh central bank. That is the door open to bankrupted central bank.

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:55 | 3454115 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I slept better today than I have in days asshole. Go troll somewhere else.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:47 | 3454967 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Because I am a ZH'er, I acknowledge that there is no hedge.  Zero.  Hedge.  See how that works, friend?  So, when I see the fiat price of my gold holdings go down the quickest in 30 years, I am not particularly surprised by this.  

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 04:10 | 3455272 e-recep
e-recep's picture

i don't think anyone with a sane mind buys gold with leverage. you buy gold for the fundamentals and the fundamentals point south. short term ups and downs are irrelevant.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:41 | 3454022 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Avoid crowded trades.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:46 | 3454050 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

And short Gold long S&P is what then? Not crowded?
It's a fully loaded in the last few month.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:54 | 3454106 knukles
knukles's picture

I am sick and tired of claptrap like "being long of gold in Yen terms" statements.
It is obfuscation and an attempt to sound like a big swinging sophisticated dick.
The simple reality is one is long gold and short yen.

Jesus....

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:09 | 3454217 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Not entirely correcty knukles, and hte reason is psychology.

Gold prices had just recently breached their 30 years old all time high in Yen terms. Psychological and given what Abe was about to do, it should have sent Gold off the races. However Gold shapes inflation expectations and Japan has probably the highest risk of bond collapse and hyperinflational, so this is a international move to weaken somewhat the Yen without triggering hyperinflation.

SO THE PRICE OF GOLD IN YEN IS THE KEY ELEMEMENT TO AVOID DOMESTIC JAPANESE PANIC BUYING OF GOLD.

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:12 | 3454220 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 A smart man Knuks is. ;-) The best return in [currency vs GOLD] might come in the next 8-12 hours. If those numbers out of London are bad, the 'pound sterling' is due for another leg down. ( that my friends, is the best long GOLD trade for the day)

  short GBP/xau

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:09 | 3454854 Alexandre Stavisky
Alexandre Stavisky's picture

I'm sure that when Volcker insisted that "not opposing Gold through coordinated central bank manoevres was a mistake", none took his advice.  Certainly this action is not a centerpiece of global trade, currency, and monetary WAR.  Handmaiden banking houses representing coordinated national central bankers who convene due to WWII outcomes will enforce compliance with extreme prejudice.  "Mr. Christian this is mutiny aforethought".  "Yes, Mr. Bligh, please to mount the rope ladder, your seaworthy craft awaits your expert guidance."

HOLD GOLD.  Tattoo it upon your knuckles if necessary.  All paper will rot, burn, or blow away in the coalescing winds of ruin in this generation.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:25 | 3454907 A.M. Bourbon
A.M. Bourbon's picture

Dude,

Take it easy.  "Long in Yen Terms" is super-old ligngo, BRAH!  We've been her awhile...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 01:36 | 3455126 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Grow up/ Currency traders are multi faceted. Blub- Blub- Blub...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:18 | 3454273 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 you know they can't do that. morons ya know.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:40 | 3454023 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Dislocations everywhere, something besides Gold and Silver is breaking, and breaking hard.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:02 | 3454156 knukles
knukles's picture

Golly gosh gee wiz...
Happened before, no?
2008, no?
Gold and silver took a powder whence the world followed.

There are some pieces out there that this smack-down has been caused by one of the major bullion banks being demanded delivery of real shiny stuff.  Not paper, not cash, not GLD shares, whatever.
Real bullion.
And ain't got it around.
Which also fits with the amounts of paper sold into the markets this last week of so... massive absolute dollar amounts...
Which as the paper wags the spot, the bullion bank(s) facing delivery are scrambling to cover....
And if they got buy 10 tonnes of real shiny say, to make delivery, no problem selling 100 tonnes, say, paper, to smack the entire complex.
And if I were Blythe at JP, I'd probably be covering every bloody short she been running in sliver and be rid of that nonsense. 
Declare victory and go home.

Hmmmm.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:55 | 3454519 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Oil, wheat, corn, beans, stocks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:36 | 3455055 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ENERGY&p=h1

The whole energy complex in commonly traded futures is getting beaten down hard, especially crude.

Crude went from 97 down to touching 86 just a few hours ago.  That's a 13% drop in 8 trading days.  Gold is down 16% over the same period.  Meanwhile, the USD is down about 1% in the same period vs. the major currency basket.  And, the Russell 2K is down 3.9% in that same period (April 3rd - April 15th).

Yes, that's right kids, the dollar is actually going down in value relative to the major currency basket, in the face of a 13% down move over 8 days in crude, and a 16% down move in gold, and a 3.9% drop in stocks.  The 30 year is up 2.4% same period.  Normally this bond would be crushing it with that much weakness in crude.  What's breaking folks?  What's breaking?

Three letters:

U.S.D.

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:42 | 3454033 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Everything is going as planned. Cyber security in place....check. Gun control ready to roll...check.... Armored personnel vehicles deployed....check. Ammo off the market ....check. False flag ready to roll....check. Okay take her down boys!

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:57 | 3454126 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Come and take 'em but you'll have to take the bullets first.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:21 | 3454893 A.M. Bourbon
A.M. Bourbon's picture

Will "They" feel it when we chop off their scrotums? It is really the only practical output...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:44 | 3454047 fuu
fuu's picture

S&P share now worth 1 oz gold and 10 oz of silver.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:48 | 3454067 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Maybe to you... Not to me...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:13 | 3454242 fuu
fuu's picture

At this price it isn't worth going and renting a boat.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:45 | 3454057 88888
88888's picture

Whats the scariest thing, is that nobody know why we are selling off in Gold, Silver and Oil. And that guest post the other day saying "If the price of oil gets below $80, that could very well be a clear signal that a major economic crisis is about to happen," should have everyone worried.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:14 | 3454240 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Nononono, CNBS told me this morning, low oil is bullish.  It puts money in the pockets of the unemployed masses so they can go out and buy more stuff.  Well, it was something along those lines, anyway...

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:55 | 3454516 shuckster
shuckster's picture

We are selling gold because the CB's have effectively come out and said "QE is over", then Abe printed and the CB's swarmed him like hornets and said "STOP". In other words, gold $1500 was built upon the assumption that QE 4 would be $1 trillion a month by last August. It hasn't reached that level, so Gold has been going down ever since. Since now they are talking about ending QE flatout, the hyperinflation arguement is looking incredibly weak. Without hyperinflation, buying gold as an "investment" becomes a terrible idea - kind of like buying homes as an investment

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:04 | 3454571 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Sorry, but that's complete and utter bullshit.  QE continues at 85 billion/month, and regardless of what the Fed says, it will continue because they can't afford to let interest rates rise on the debt, as the interest payments immediately become unsustainable.  The correlation between money supply is well established and easy to see.  Money supply, as expected, is going straight through the roof.  QE doesn't need to be 1 trillion/month, 85 billion is plenty. 

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:06 | 3454578 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Al don't waste your time. Your posts are too good. That was horrendous what that guy wrote.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:15 | 3454638 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

True enough, but it was so ridiculous I couldn't leave it alone...  Amazing what kind of bullshit gets rolled out when things get crazy.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:27 | 3454689 Pareto
Pareto's picture

You nailed it though Al.  People think rates are "free" to move according to market principles.  They don't understand that under no circumstances can that be allowed to happen.  EVER.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:58 | 3454533 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Because we are already in a recession and it's dipping worse. Deflationary spiral, no inflation for a long time to come.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:47 | 3454064 arkel
arkel's picture

I never thought I would see silver where it is now. Amazing. I just wish I could buy physical at these prices. The premiums are crazy everywhere. Apmex has jacked their premiums and a lot of dealers are suddenly SOLD OUT.

These paper prices cannot last.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:14 | 3454627 Pareto
Pareto's picture

I wandered into my gold and silver hole today.  wow!  place was packed (usually i am the only one in there).  phones were ringing quotes were offered - it was hectic.  I never saw it like that before.  it was kind of creepy actually.  I have always read ZH anecdotes of "short supply", "raised premiums", etc.  Turns out it was EXACTLY the same here.  Normally you can buy silver rounds, bars, etc., and u can buy single eagles, leafs OTC.  Not today.  GONE.  If you were buying any gold, u were for sure waiting for it.  They had a few silos of silver rounds and so i grabbed what they had - fuck it was like, no time to think - kike being in Walmart during End of Days or something - and they had no time for you.  Plus you were looking at 6 to 8 weeks delivery on the gold (normally its two).

One final thing.  They were quoting $1480 $CDN when spot was $1320 $USD, which works out to $115 USD over spot, or, 8.7%.  Its usually 4%.

And as an aside, the best part about it was I met a handful of really cool people and everybody has a story to tell.  "Its nice to see some fellow stackers" one said.  Yeah I agreed.  Sometimes, you think you are the only one and that you might be bat shit crazy.  Anyhow.  Thats my story.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 07:02 | 3455400 Stuntgirl
Stuntgirl's picture

Thanks for your story, man, sometimes I do think I am the only one and that I'm batshit crazy.

When my London and Frankfurt regular providers froze sales over the weekend, I was surprised to find noone was buying gold in Spain, and there was good stock. They never jacked up the premiums, either, because noone in Spain is buying, so suddenly they were competitive with regards to Germans.

I got on the phone with a Barcelona dealer and he talked to me like I was a weirdo, because I was not interested in numismatics.

NOONE in Spain is buying gold, and some are selling physical, as their objective was short term.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:18 | 3454628 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Thank you. 

 

APMEX has silver, but with the premiums it's still going for $35/ounce with tax & shipping. . . 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:53 | 3454097 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Paper is getting monkeyhammered tonight.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:00 | 3454142 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

I had a huge profit on GDX, bought at 34 and it went to 60, when it dropped to 55 I told my "financial advisor" with MS we should sell half the postion, he said no... Cost me a fortune to listen to that fuck. Never again.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:56 | 3454121 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

so as Japan falls apart their currency strengthens and they have to sell the gold that they don't have as it plummets as their invlationary nightmare begins. yup makes sense.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:30 | 3454336 ekm
ekm's picture

Incorrect. Nothing makes sense. COT report is fake, as anything coming from gov. No accurate conclusion could be withdrawn from available data.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:42 | 3454409 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If there was anyone on here that could sense my sarcasm by now I figured it was you :)

What's the deal ekm? Are you about to be right or should I buy some nice warm and comfy dividend payers to ride out this rough patch?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:17 | 3454467 ekm
ekm's picture

The answer is: Only few people know, a handful of people, literally.

 

When the Gov transmits faulty data day in and day out, the whole market is run simply by executive orders.

People have hard time believing what I say, but I lived in such a system that almost nothing surprises me.

 

I know I will be right, it is obvious I will, what I don't know is WHEN will I be right. It could be 10 minutes from now, it could be 2 years from now. I do know though, that the economy has become energy starved and that's when decisions are usually made.

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:55 | 3454505 ekm
ekm's picture

Somebody with wife and kids like you, only David Stockman's advise would apply: CASH IN THE MATTRESS OR UNDER THE MATTRESS (verbatim)

 

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:03 | 3454574 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

For cash in the mattress being the call I guess you don't subscribe to this "just about to break" paper precious metals market truly falling apart eh?

Gold first, oil second, stocks third? Cash for the win?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:11 | 3454597 ekm
ekm's picture

How would I put it to you.

The problem is not debt, not at all. The only problem is LEVERAGE.

 

Do you remember the illustration about the rich uncle? If I have bet $1000 and have only $10, but my father has ordered my uncle not to help me, then I am obligated to fire-sell anything I have.

 

Hence All stocks and bonds and gold I have will be sold at a loss, and the demand for dollars will be high. Not because dollar is strong, not at all, but because only and only and only almost all gambling is settled in dollars, literally.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:27 | 3454686 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Do you believe there will be a break between physical and paper gold?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:28 | 3454698 ekm
ekm's picture

The break has been there it's been years already.

SPOT price no longer means IMMEDIATE DELIVERY.

Then what's the point of spot price?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:35 | 3454726 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The thing that scraes most people about gold is not the part where they pay a premium to buy, it's the part when they for whatever reason, are forced to sell.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:39 | 3454735 ekm
ekm's picture

Correct, hence leveraged betting.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 20:58 | 3454123 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Gold had reached its very old 1980 all time high in yen only a few weeks ago.

What typically goes on when an old all time high is breached with strong underpinning? It goes off the races

Gold is the only asset which is purchased in panic as we all know.

Now what would have happened to the flow of yen, it would not have gone to treasuries (the ultimate nemesis collateral against Gold) but to Gold.

Treasuries were a loser up until recently in Yen terms while Gold was showing an apparently unstoppable move upwards until recently in Yen.

Since Gold shapes inflation expectations and since Japan is where there is the most risk of hyperinflation, avoiding a race in the Gold price denominated in Yen is “welcome” by some to push the risk of hyperinflation down the road.

The unlevered commodities (soft commodities, whose consumption does not depend on Chinese leveraged SOEs ) are not reacting much recently as opposed to Gold and some storable industrial commodities). Those soft commodities are consumable and not storable over a long period of time, which means that it is quite difficult to alter their price from the futures market.

We will know soon which side is not “behaving”.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:05 | 3454182 tok1
tok1's picture

I dont know where they got the vol chart but reality JGB vol is way down last two days.. and the futures are up +30 ie the JGB panic has ended.. and crashing gold / stocks and stronger yen will lead domestics back into JGB not out .. not to mention falling crude (ie deflation)  this is problem with zero hedge they stick to theme regarless of reality..ie JGBs might crash but last two days vols dropped a lot and prices have firmed.. 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:58 | 3454547 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Agree.  Neither the US or Japan can afford rates ticking up.  Especially the US with the knowledge that most of Asia and the Pacific rim are about to dump a shitload of US treasuries.  So, a stock market dump for both countries is infinitely better than their bond markets imploding.  Of course, its just delaying the inevitable, but, thats my take.  Despite the stock market smack down, bonds remained heavy until the Marathon bomb, then the further meltdown in stocks provided some relief to the bond market as prices gained a bid into the close.  Forget Kuroda, I think Bernanke is fucked.  There is not enough gold and silver on the planet to bail out the liquidation of US treasuries soon to come onto the market.  Bernake's all in and he's got pocket 3's.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:07 | 3454201 The_Small_Lebowski
The_Small_Lebowski's picture

 If theres something strange in your neighbourhood......

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:09 | 3454202 rogeliokh
rogeliokh's picture

Miners should also sell Paper Gold/Silver certificates and stock real thing in their warehouses. This is crazy. Let the FED mine it themselves. at $1300/oz (Why bother?) Miners should go on vacations. Period.
Dear paper manipulators metals officially under production cost,
Stop printing and look around.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:25 | 3454303 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Keep an eye on Dr. Copper, if it heads into the upper 2's then we will know we are going somewhere fast "down".

Of course this will be good for the real economy.

Stay strong, we are on the move...

Cheers

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:36 | 3454365 devo
devo's picture

Silver Eagles just sold out at Gainesville.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:53 | 3454503 delivered
delivered's picture

Searched Gainsville, Apmex, and other sites. Any silver of quality is gone. Some messages that we "hope to ship" by early May. Premiums now pushing 8 to 10%. All that is left are a bunch of niche/collector type items. I don't think I've ever witnessed anything like this as even back in 2008, there always seemed to be plenty of silver to buy at reasonable premiums. Not this time. Doesn't look like this is going to end well as the harder the push on the price, the more physical flies off the shelves. Not sure this is what Big Ben and Uncle Abe had in mind when all of this get started.

For some parties out their that leveraged their positions in paper, the only thing I can think about is when Randolph and Mortimer Duke got caught on the wrong side of the trade in FOJ futures in the movie Trading Places. Of course we know someone had insider knowledge all of this was going to go down and this stinking trail no doubt leads back to the Fed.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:36 | 3454729 devo
devo's picture

.999 genetic rounds are available still, and selling at a low premium. Seem like the best bang for buck right now.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 06:08 | 3455347 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Yep. Silver is silver.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:40 | 3454739 kito
kito's picture

What kind of bullshit disinfo are you people spreading...Gainesville has silver available for purchase NOW....

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:46 | 3454760 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I gotta admit I am torn on this one. It looks like if somebody had to puchase silver, there is silver available on Gainsville's site. Granted you may have to wait until April 30th for delivery, but you can get it from the site. I see they have some stuff sold out. But there is stuff available. I have never purchased anything online, and there may be something I am missing. But some sites have stuff available.

Kito check that.

"Orders containing this item will not ship until this item is available."

I had this happen to me. This means "go fuck yourself". Anywhere you see that means you will not be able to purchase it.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:59 | 3454816 kito
kito's picture

Since I'm not a regular, first question is whether that disclaimer is always there, and second question is what is their normal ship time. Again, to put things in perspective, I have gone to at least 5 websites to order 9mm ammo and every site says OUT OF STOCK .....as in SORRY BUT WE CAN'T HELP YOU....ALL GONE...that is a real shortage....

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:04 | 3454818 devo
devo's picture

I said they're sold out of Eagles. Capish?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:36 | 3454376 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

This isn't Japan any more ... it's China. 

 

 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 21:51 | 3454480 A.M. Bourbon
A.M. Bourbon's picture

Something deadly is afoot.

Fight with  your last breath for your family, as the asocial violence will feed upon itself and we will be called upon to do things we would never have believed ourselves capable of.   

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:23 | 3454673 3-and-30
3-and-30's picture

Does that mean Japan has been selling its gold?

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:28 | 3454694 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Japan is a debt balloon and all they are doing is squeezing really hard to make it look smaller. Everything else that relates to it, yen-gold, yen-usd corresponds to the squeeze. I dare say it's a consequence of equating debt as an asset. The bigger the debt, the bigger the asset (Until it suddenly isn't). Bass was not wrong, but he won't get paid either unless he closed his positions. It will pop and take out all the banks who have been playing fantasy counterparties to the risk. I mean how many Kyle Bass's have been taking billions from the squids lately on jump risks? They had to reverse it, and this is the result. Everything has gone topsy turvy. 

JGB looks good does it? Well imo, the Yen is about to disappear. The recoil from this amount of manipulation is going to be massive. 

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:35 | 3454720 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Any trade that actually makes sense is immediately considered a threat to the establishment and squashed with printing presses.  They will run out of real gold eventually.  Two markets for gold means no credibility, no matter what they paint on a chart.

Gold is the only way out of this mess.  The Yen will always exchange at whatever rate is set by CBs no matter how stupid or damaging it is to the economy.  You only have to take one look at the miners to know how much damage their market rigging cn do to employment and progress in the real economy.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:37 | 3454727 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

There is a deflationary wind blowing...can someone say credit meltdown in China???

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:40 | 3454738 electricgorilla
electricgorilla's picture

I'd rather hold a few bags of Arabica Coffee or Cocoa in the garage then Gold. Cocoa was used as a currency in the South America's before the Europeans arrived. The British Pound? A pound of what? I'm just not convinced that Gold bullion is a good storage of value. It can be so easily manipulated by bankers, confiscated by the government, or re-priced at the slight of a hand. Just my opinion.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:56 | 3454798 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

They can do all the same stuff to cocoa.  But cocoa is heavier to carry around and probably tastes like shit after a month in your garage.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:07 | 3454845 devo
devo's picture

Haha.

He'd have to lug it around hoping to find someone who needs a bag of stale cocoa.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 22:57 | 3454810 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I love that crazy F**ker on 'Travel Channel'. Chasing Coffee beans in " No Mans Land"! I hope they have a second season.

Mon, 04/15/2013 - 23:08 | 3454849 chump666
chump666's picture

I though this would happen, next a firm from NY will have a go (y'know class action of 100 people showing no evidence that QE has worked but has caused the opposite - poor and f*cked up):

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/15/china-woman-reportedly-w...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:13 | 3455025 devo
devo's picture

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Haha. I hope he's okay.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:32 | 3455047 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
SKorea plans $15 bln extra budget to boost economy

 

http://news.yahoo.com/skorea-plans-15-bln-extra-budget-boost-economy-015...

 

SK sees the Deflationary Sh*tstorm coming....

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:40 | 3455053 Debugas
Debugas's picture

Japan is selling US bonds. Gold graph up there is just a reflection of JPYUSD move

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 00:57 | 3455087 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

USD/AUD melt up.

Gold getting pole axed.

Whiff of bank failure.

Smells a lot like the dress rehearsal in 2008...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 02:33 | 3455200 resurger
resurger's picture

ill be looking forward to see the USD IR Volatility

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