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All Eyes On The Gold Rout, Most Oversold In 14 Years
While China's trifecta miss of GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production all coming lower than expected was likely a factor in the overnight rout of gold, the initial burst of selling started well before the Chinese data hit the tape, or as soon as Japan opened for trading with forced financial institution selling to prefund cash for any and all future JGB VaR-driven margin calls. It was all downhill from there, literally, with overnight selling of gold punctured by brief burst of targeted stop hunting, sending the metal down $116 per ounce, as spot touches $1385 after trading nearly at $1500 yesterday and down $200 in 4 days. End result, whether due to a re-collapsing global economy, margin calls, fears forced Cyprus gold selling will be imposed on all other insolvent European countries, coordinated central bank slams, hedge fund positioning, long unwinds, liquidations, fears about future demand, or whatever the usual selling suspects are, is that gold tumbles an unprecedented 7.8% on 230,000 contracts in one day, and well over 10% in two days, pushing the yellow metal 14 day RSI band to 18, meaning it is now most oversold since 1999. In brief, it is an all out panic, with Goldman still telling clients to sell, i.e., buying every shiny ounce all the way down (not to mention India, where accordingto UBS Friday demand was double the average).
Below are some banks' takes on the overnight action via BBG:
Deutsche Bank:
- Unclear at this stage if there’s a clear link between the decline in gold prices and the currency markets; China’s weak 1Q GDP data probably had a more direct impact on currencies this morning than gold, Bilal Hafeez, strategist at Deutsche Bank, says in interview
- Commodity prices underwent some position adjustments on Friday, unclear on cause
- Overall commodity cycle will be important going forward for currencies such as AUD and NZD
Citigroup:
- Impact of decline in gold price was seen in commodity-related currencies like AUD and NZD; some unwinding in the JPY was also noted; EUR and GBP have been largely steady on the gold move, Rohan Ramchandani, head of European spot trading at Citigroup, says in interview
- Gold decline may have been related to some break in technical levels and the general improvement in global risk appetite
- Gold drop may have some more room to run in short-term but in the longer-term, gold should be supported, and likewise the commodity currencies; market has been comfortably long on the gold trade since the financial crisis
Morgan Stanley
- Impact of gold decline on AUD should be buffeted by the easy global liquidity conditions, Ian Stannard, strategist at Morgan Stanley, says in interview
- Expect AUD to hold up in recent trading range even with the decline in gold prices as long as equity markets continue to provide a positive signal and there’s prospect of Japanese asset reallocation overseas
ING:
- While gold should decline in the longer term on USD strength, short-term risk is financial dislocation, Chris Turner, strategist at ING, writes in note
- Pickup in gold volatility may see increase in the 15% haircuts on gold’s use as collateral at major financial exchanges; gold has become a strong source of collateral since the global financial crisis
- Gold collapse has sparked some unwind in USD/JPY
Barclays:
- Plunge in prices of precious metals has caught market attention, suggesting note of caution for risk sentiment in general, Jordan Kotick, global head of technical strategy at Barclays, writes in note
- Break in gold and silver’s multi-year range lows are forcing liquidation across board, not just in USD terms but also when priced in almost any currency
- Markets may unsettle, risk of near-term correction in many recent trends such as JPY crosses, AUD/USD and USD/CAD
SEB:
- Gold collapse on break of 1,522/25 key support has forced copper, oil to take a beating; CAD is weaker while JPY correct seems to be getting legs
In other words, nobody has any idea what is going on, but is piling on to spread the confusion. Which, of course, for those who only care about the ongoing dilution of global fiat, which shows no signs of halting especially with the global economic deterioration accelerating, courtesy of central bank printing, a very welcome opportunity to paper dollar cost-average much lower.
Speaking of deteriorating economics, here is a brief recap of the Chinese data via SocGen:
The week opened with a truckload of unpleasant surprises from Chinese activity data. GDP growth decelerated unexpectedly to 7.7%yoy in Q1 from 7.9%yoy previously. March industrial production and fixed asset investment also came in decisively below street expectations, despite accommodative liquidity conditions. The data disappointment shocked down prices of all kinds of risky assets, from the AUD, commodity prices, to stock markets across the region. We do not think Q1 marked the end of recovery, as the lagged impact of rapid credit growth in the past few months should kick in later. However, at the same time, the latest data firmly support our call for a weak and short-lived cyclical recovery of the Chinese economy in 2013.
China’s economic growth unexpectedly decelerated to 7.7%yoy in the first quarter The Chinese economy grew 7.7% yoy in Q1, below market expectations (Cons. & SG 8%) and down from 7.9% yoy in Q4 2012. The biggest surprise to us was the sharp slide in the investment contribution (2.3ppt from 3.9ppt in 2012), despite the clear acceleration in credit growth since Q4 2012. Consumption – private and public combined – contributed 4.3ppt, only marginally higher than the 4.1ppt in 2012 but substantially short of the 6.4ppt in Q1 2012. As we expected, net exports were a big plus, adding 1.1ppt to Q1 growth (vs. -0.2ppt in 2012).
Retail sales registered a 12.6%yoy growth in March, in line with expectations (Cons. 12.6%, SG 12.5%, Jan-Feb 12.3%). But such a pace still suggested a fairly soft momentum of consumption, by China’s standard. The impact of anti-corruption measures was easily spotted, with the catering sector mired in contraction (-1.1%yoy in March). Other major drags were car and petroleum sales. Comparing to December, these three categories subtracted 1.2ppt, 1ppt
and 2.1ppt from the headline growth, respectively.
Industrial production growth slid substantially from 9.9%yoy during the first two months to 8.9%yoy in March (Cons. 10.1%; SG 9.7%) – the slowest pace since May 2009. Utility production was particularly weak, with power generation growth falling to 2.1%yoy in March from 3.4%yoy in January and February. In addition, textile and IT equipment manufacturing also slowed down notably. Throughout the first quarter, IP persistently undershot expectations, while export growth stayed firmly on the other side of the consensus. This latest IP reading only casted more doubt on the reliability of the strong export data in the past few months.
Consistent with GDP breakdowns, fixed asset investment (FAI) grew slower at 20.9%yoy in Q1 (Cons. 21.3%, SG 21.5%), implying a deceleration to 20.7%yoy in March from 21.2%yoy in January and February. Real estate investment growth fell back to 17.6%yoy from the surprisingly solid level of 22.8%yoy previously, indicating that developers may have started to adjust their investment plan shortly after the announcement of renewed tightening. Other property sector data were also not as upbeat as we initially thought. Property starts contracted again by 20.2% yoy in March, after only two months of positive growth; property sales growth almost halved to 26.6%yoy in March from the feverish pace in the previous two months. Given this, the well-reported surge in second-hand home transaction seemed to be largely regional.
Manufacturing FAI posted some improvement, rising 19.9%yoy in March (vs. 17%yoy in the first two months). However, those sectors that are suffering from excess capacity continued to show little sign of revival. Infrastructure investment grew apace at 26.5%yoy in March, up from 24.2%yoy in January and February. State-driven FAI remained the major support to China’s growth.
* * *
So yeah, central banks will stop printing any minute now, and gold will go to zero, so Cyprus - please sell your gold to the Troika, Russia, Goldman or China now before it plunges to triple, double, single, or zero digit range.
* * *
The rest of the overnight action recap comes from Deutsche's Jim Reid:
Ahead of us this week is a busy seven days of politics, earnings and economic data. On the earnings side, about a quarter of the S&P500 by market cap will be reporting quarterly results. Setting the tone on the macro side will be the Q1 results from many of the big banks including Citigroup who report today before the US market open. This will be followed by Goldman Sachs tomorrow, Bank of America and American Express on Wednesday and Morgan Stanley on Thursday. Outside of the financials, we also have a number of tech giants including Google, Microsoft and IBM reporting earnings on Thursday. Corporate bellwethers Coca Cola (Tuesday), General Electric and McDonalds (Friday) are also scheduled to report this week.
In Europe, the Italian parliament will be holding its presidential election on Thursday April 18th to elect a successor to Giogio Napolitano. Numerous names have been floated as his successor including former Prime Ministers Romano Prodi and Giuliano Amato, and former EU Commissioner Emma Bonino, but no clear favourite has emerged. A two-thirds vote is required on any of the first three rounds of balloting, after which a majority suffices. The process is expected to last several days.
Elsewhere we can expect more rhetoric about currency wars this week as political and business leaders gather in Washington for the World Bank/IMF spring meetings beginning this Friday. Over the weekend, the US treasury fired the first shot, urging Japan to “refrain from competitive devaluation” in its semiannual foreign currency report to congress. The Treasury report also urged Japan to adhere to international commitments “to remain oriented towards
meeting respective domestic objectives using domestic instruments”. The Treasury found that no country met the legal standard to be designated a “currency manipulator” but said that China’s renminbi “remains significantly undervalued”.
We’ll preview more of the week ahead a little later, but first returning to Friday where earnings beats from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo failed to spark the S&P500 (-0.28%) to its fifth straight positive session. Perhaps weighing on investor sentiment was the commentary from both banks around sluggish loan demand and net interest margins. Away from earnings, there was no mistaking that Friday was a weak day for US data. Both retail sales (-0.4% vs 0% expected) and consumer sentiment (72.3 vs 78.6) disappointed to the downside, renewing fears of another mid-year seasonal slowdown in US data.
In terms of retail sales, downward revisions to both January and February numbers perhaps hinted at the effect of higher tax rates on consumer spending. Meanwhile, the UofM consumer sentiment index fell to a nine-month low. The index of six-month expectations decreased to 64.2 this month from 70.8 in the prior period. We’ll get further indication on the direction of US data with the Empire manufacturing survey today.
In terms of price action, commodities continued to underperform other risk assets on Friday. Indeed, if we look at a longer time horizon, the S&P GSCI index has underperformed the S&P500 by about 15% in the year to date as the commodities complex continues to decouple from equities. The most notable move was gold which closed 5% lower in its largest one day drop since 2008. The precious metal has lost about 20% since the October 2012 peak. Brent (- 1.1%) and copper (-2.4%) also had soft trading sessions on Friday, a move which has been exacerbated by lower than expected Q1 growth numbers from China overnight.
China’s GDP growth was 7.7% year-on-year for the first quarter which was lower than the median Bloomberg estimate of 8.0% and lower than the 7.9% growth seen in Q4 2012. The monthly activity indicators also disappointed with industrial production (9.5% vs 10%), fixed asset investment (20.9% vs 21.3%) and retail sales (12.4% vs 12.5%) all coming below expectations.
The market reaction to the Chinese data has been negative with most major Asian bourses trading about 1-2% weaker overnight. Across the region, commodity stocks are leading declines on Monday including 4%+ falls in mining giants BHP and Rio Tinto – partly in reaction to the Chinese data but also taking the lead from last Friday’s price action in commodities. The ASX200 (-1.2%) is underperforming other indices on the back of weakness in miners, and is under further pressure with the weak Chinese data. The AUD is 0.7% weaker against the greenback. Declines in oil (-2.1%), copper (-1.9%) and gold (-2.5%) are continuing this morning.
In the EM space, acting President Nicolas Maduro was elected as Venezuela's president with 50.7% of vote, the national electoral office said after more than 99% of the ballots were counted. The opposition's Henrique Capriles Radonski had 49.1% of the vote. The head of the country's electoral council said that the "results are irreversible" (Bloomberg).
Turning to the day ahead, as discussed earlier the US dataflow continues today with the Empire manufacturing survey and NAHB homebuilders index. Citigroup reports earnings before the opening bell. Over the rest of the week, the IMF will publish its World Economic outlook on Tuesday and its semiannual Global Financial Stability Report on Wednesday.
Beyond today, the US data calendar highlights are tomorrow's CPI, building permits, housing starts and industrial production reports; followed by Thursday’s jobless claims. Also due on Thursday is the Philly Fed survey. The Fed’s latest Biege Book will be published on Wednesday. The European data calendar is relatively light with the German ZEW survey tomorrow the major data release of note. The BoE publishes minutes from its last meeting on Wednesday. Spain will auction bonds on Thursday. The Chinese government provides an update on property prices on Thursday. In Japan, the key prints include industrial production, machine tool orders (Monday) and trade (Thursday).
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6.84 Standard deviations!
https://www.quantsig.net/live.html
We're hititng the cost of producing an ounce of silver in the mid $23's - time to keep on buying physical because production will be dropping with record US mint sales. This is very like 2008...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303691-the-true-cost-to-mine-silver-complete-2012-figures
Do I smell a paper fire blowin in the wind?
just remember what PMs did after Lehman
BTFD !!!!
:D
I'm worried about a COMEX default now - if physical sales stay strong at these price levels, I think someone may not be able to deliver physical...
You should be worried! Blythe only wants what's best....
Blight master?
APMEX still has 45,543 2013 1 oz Silver American Eagle
I didn't pay attention over the weekend, so when I got in this morning, my eyes popped at the price.
8:05: Frantic call, desperate, impassioned plea to the wife for approval for 1 more 100oz. JM bar
8:10: Vicious, reluctant approval
8:11: At APMEX web site, can't reset password from work.
8:13: On hold awaiting sales person (3 minutes)
8:18: Locked in. Great relief.
I like APMEX.
So shit China Macro data affects Gold prices more than US Stock Markets? WTF, everyone has been touting China as the source of the global recovery, I would think that if the world economy goes into the shitter, Gold would be a safe haven.
This all started with Cyprus and the negative leverage from assets being pulled from the banks and financial system worldwide.
Even jacking up registered inventories won't be enough to avoid physical default.
ING: "Gold collapse has sparked some unwind in USD/JPY"
Nooooo.......Ctl+Alt+P at the BoJ all last week was the trigger for that gun ya fucking blind dick head.
Supply is tightening in the physical market. Dealers are selling out and having trouble/delays sourcing new inventory. Premiums for silver are rising. I expect the same will happen soon for gold. The paper markets might be crashing, but it looks like the physical markets are drying up.
It's only natural that premiums rise on physical PMs when prices are declining. It's the only active means a dealer has to maintain his profit margin and not sell at a loss. In terms of supply tightening, it could also be that dealers are simply refusing to sell their inventory at current depressed prices, particularly if it would result in an economic loss due to their inventory purchases at previously higher prices.
Any dealer that doesn't hedge his/her inventory won't stay in business long enough to worry about what their premiums should be. If they rely on raising their premiums to make up for inventory costs they lose customers. Not a good business plan.
You raise a good point about hedging the cost of inventory. Still, I assume dealers are "net long" to some degree even with hedging and so benefit from rising prices (and hurt by declining prices).
EDIT - customers seem indifferent when it comes to dealers raising premiums.
BTFD reloaded. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQCOK_48tTk
This will be the script for all MSM financials and even "news" channels this week.
Sell your real money.....for paper.
Now....about your 401K.....we might need to borrow that. This healthcare crap is turning out to be a tad bit more expensive than we thought.
The funny part about that is a year ago.....you didn't even think that would have been possible.....how do you feel now?
That's OK because I've been "borrowing" from my 401k.
Here is the answer: "gold tumbles an unprecedented 7.8% on 230,000 contracts in one day". These are coordinated FED and ECB operations.
By the way, today silver is down over 10%. Another week and silver will have no value at all.
Shall we expect food and oil free in 2-3 weeks?
As for financial markets, they are casinos with no relationship to real economies.
Now, with their $3T+ reserves, China can buy all gold, silver, and commodities available in world.
Good luck finding physical at the current prices - I'm seeing coin shops offering to buy coins for more than their gold content price and sell premiums upped all the way to 10%.
If this is the paper crash we all expected then it's bound to accelerate because:
Positive feedback cycle, Bitchez!
There is no problem buying physical gold at the usual spread to spot here in Australia. I would imagine that the same goes for the US.
Of course, there is no problem in buying physical.These idiots here live in Wonderland. But who cares? Ignorant, worthless idiots will end up with nothing, as usual...
"Ignorant, worthless idiots"
ROFL! This is a case of the pot calling the snowflake black. "There's no problem buying physical"--as if you had a clue! Tulving.com is one of the largest gold and silver bullion dealers in the country, and they're already out of many gold items, and almost all silver items. Scroll down that list, junior:
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
Before they ran out of Silver Eagles, the premium was up to spot PLUS SIX BUCKS. I can tell you're not very old. This is exactly what we saw in the last gold and silver raids. The premium on silver eagles and maples ran up to $7 over spot, and then they were out.
This is nothing new. In March 2008 silver ticked $21, and then it fell for months until it dipped below $9 in Oct 2008. I was buying in the 9's, 10's, 11's. Oh, the gold and silver bull is over. Alas! Alack! Prithee, what shall we do, good sirs? I think I'll swap the silver eagles that cost me $5 in 1990 for paper FRN's. The Fedwipes have held up so much better over the years.
I inquired of a large bullion dealer how they could be selling at these beaten down prices assuming they had bought the stuff for more. The answer was that because they held a lot of stock they had hedged, thus enabling them to continue selling stock which they had bought at higher prices for less than they had bought it.
When they deplete, it will be interesting to see what happens next.
Nobody stands for delivery, it's unheard of....
Silver, holy shit! Back up the truck!
Wait a minute...
The TV news "experts" agree that everything's fine.
The strengthening Obama recovery is causing PMs to fall in value.
Wonderful news!!!
So I went to my local coin dealer to take advantage of the plunge in prices. Mr. Goldbrix wouldn't sell to me at the futures price.
He still wants $37 each for AG Eagles -- and is almost out of stock.
So, ZH ers, when cash commodity markets decouple from the futures markets is a parabolic price swing imminent?
What's really going on
This is the Central Banks going full retard and thinking they'll win a Nobel Prize.
They freaked the fuck out when the March payrolls missed so badly.
I love the smell of napalmed ETF's in the morning. And in about 5 hours I'll be visiting my local coin dealer for a bargain price on 100 silver oz. of the real thing.
If you're buying physical, they may not be as much of a bargain as you think. Premiums are high. It's called "decoupling."
Yeah, I know. At this particular dealer there's pre-2012 ASE's for spot plus $2. Sometimes a little tarnish, but have a kit that removes it.
Don't use tarnish removers on silver coins. Tarnish isn't hurting anything.
Also, good luck buying silver from your local coin shop (LCS). Mine doesn't have any silver bullion left - only numismatics.
Tarnish proves it's really silver. Only a mother could love a butt ugly 1000oz trading bar.
I would love a mother that gave birth to 1000 oz. bars.....
Use baking soda & water.
Line bottom of shallow glass dish with aluminum foil.
Add 2-3 heaping tablespoons of baking soda. Add warm water to 1/2 inch depth.
Lay silver coins on top of aluminum foil and wait/watch. Before your eyes - tarnish is gone.
Tarnish remover can ruin the tasty chocolate inside the foil wrapper.
let us know the premium...
15,45% premium for maples at the place I order from online, and 20,10 % for eagles.
EDIT: It's up to 20% on maples and they're out of eagles now.
18% here on the Maple leaf, with 3 weeks before delivery...
20% on the american eagle
APMEX about $5 over spot or about 20% + over spot...
About 5% at Tulving for Gold Eagles.
Boy it stinks to have no money or kisses in the morning.
wire transfer comes in to account in am and spend the pm at the coin dealers buying gold and silver. I like christmas in spring
I'm totally tapped out right now. I've put everything I got in PM's.
Kind of sucks right now...
My next big buying opp will we october.... that's a long time from now...
That's and eternity in the silver market..
Satirday afternoon my coin shop was out of all 10 oz bars, 100 oz bars and government issued one ounce coins. I saw the last 32 Maple Leafs leave. They had silver rounds but those were going too.
Producers should withhold prodution and punish the banksters paper metals....
Well, with that mine cave-in US silver production just went down 16%. Excellent.
I don't mind a little volatility, but what irks me is those Socgen dingbats highfiving each other now.
weak hands: meet the 2013 "shake the baby" moment
I'm thinking something like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0GW0Vnr9Yc
Don't slap me, I'm fine.......really.
I bought at $273, $525 and $700.....might have to open up the doors to the dry powder vault today. Yes I do have pictures so don't even start.
barbarian braggart, you... ;-)
That's the last thing Chuck Munger said to me. I haven't received a Christmas card since.
"We're taking your fuckin' gold, suckers."
- Rothschild & Associates
Also, important to note the front gold calendar spread didnt even lose a dime during this big drop, i.e. June-Aug spread is steady at -1.5 on ~4000 contracts vol
The banksters are trying to get the Cypriots to sell their gold at the worst possibly price so they can steal the 'insured' deposits as well
Yes, among other things. It is a coordinated wealth transfer effort. The CBs are petrified because the fiat world is completely unraveling. So they are orchestrating a collapse in the perceived worth of real money to get weak hands to cough it up.
The more PMs are crushed and equities are reflated, the tighter the grip on my stack gets.
+1.
Double post..
If a gold standard is threatening to come from wherever, what better way to flush people out of their gold, or in this case, their claim to gold, than to panic the market and mop it up. What better way for the elites to prepare themselves for a new currency, or produce a new currency. When the dust settles and the masses have been relieved of their gold, it is then when people realise that gold is the only thing of real value in this world, the very thing they scrambled to get rid of in a state of fear and panic. Seems pretty well orchestrated to me. Throw in the massive distraction of North Korean day of incredible significance. All seems just too coincidental. We are being super scammed.
'nobody has any idea what is going on'
disconnect to physical reality S
T
A
C
K
N
O
W
Who are these masses you speak of? I know one person who has PMs IRL.
Margins were being called on all the shorts late last week. People had to get money from somewhere to cover them and gold is (was) the easiest to liquidate. There were a shit heap (SHIT HEAP) of stops just getting tripped when it started to capitulate last Friday, perfect time for weekend to put the squeeze on people, panic ensued as money was tight and hard to get quick. Now you get this..
...slight correction...that's paper gold/silver being "liquidated". Burning ETF's and Comex contracts. U cannot liquidate physical.
No one with PMs. Ive thought about that too, and the question was brought up by Paul Craig Roberts in an interview last weekend. Few Americans own gold, so how can you flush them out of it ? (And it seems the Chinese and Indians come in and buy at dips, not dump their PMs.)
Is this a psy-OP directed at the American people to keep them away from gold when something BIG happens soon that we havent been told about ? Is there the danger of a rapid loss in the trust people have in the dollar ?
For those who havent had a chance to do so yet - - - read David Stockman's new book. Many of you already know the issues he brings up. But, the level of absolute corruption in the banks and upper levels of the federal government (also incompetent) come through loud and clear. The banksters own this country. They own the politicians who run the government system. We have no real 'markets' and everything they say is a lie.
Demand for lead of certain varities is up and will continue higher
Funny you should mention that... 'psy-OP'...
~~~
Last Thursday I was sitting with my brother & about half dozen other guys at a sort of 'Masters 1st Round' shindig... Typical 'man cave' chips, beer, pizza, 90 inch TV... yada yada...
These guys get to talking & I don't remember how the subject came up but all of a sudden they were talking about stocks... Right on cue, they were talking about all their recent 'winners'... I could feel the urge bubbling up inside to blurt out that they were all fucking morons, so I just sat there watching the conversation with my eyeballs like a ladies tennis match...
& what if I had spoken up?... By today ~ in their eyes, I'd be a fucking moron...
They're just going to have to learn things the hard way... Whocoodapossiblynode?
are you a fucking prick?
help them ! you call them your friends !
A hidden stash of gold is the only way for peons like us to own anything of value in this world which can't be easily taken away.
What has much more value in the world though are natural resources, productive capital and the means to defend (or take) either. Currency only ever represents a tiny fraction of the true wealth of the world, whether it's gold or not doesn't matter.
That kind of wealth is for the big people to play with though, not peons like us.
Yes. But "The CBs are petrified..." - NOT the eurozone NCBs
MSM not knowing what to do on unravelling. Bloomberg top headlines:
"Global stocks, commodities slide as China growth eases"
"Gold rout deepens as investors reduce holdings on recovery"
"EU claim of progress risks G20 disbelief"
It was all working so well when stocks were going up on the bad news...
Cyprus? 10 metric tons? 10 grams per person? get real, that's peanuts
I know it's peanuts but they have the 'excuse' to hammer the price... and steal at the same time... 'nuff said!
sure, as matter for pundit impact you'd be led to think it was some 1'000 tons
btw, Draghi and the Cyprus national bank governor are still fighting to keep those 10t inside the EZ... barbarians...
Check up another tree/skirt-- Mrs. Watanabe has apparently been dumping both JGBs and the precious in trade for crisp worthless fiat t(w)o ply into the Abenomics Ponzi... next month's exports from Japan to Hong Kong should be interesting.
There just enough Cypriot gold that they don't already control to justify even getting out of bed in the morning, much less orchestrating this sort bitch slapping of the limp wristed hands.
Who is offering the cheapest prices right now online? I'm having trouble finding silver cheaper than 28.
Check out: https://comparesilverprices.com/
My site catalogs more dealers :D
http://comparegoldandsilverprices.com/
Perth Mint sold 10Oz@253 aussies at the close, now left for the pub though.
To quote Ben Bernanke..."transient".
There is no such thing as "oversold" or "overbought"
The terms imply that there is some "right" or "proper" price and that anything above or below that becomes oversold or overbought
If a "true" price were known and "overbought" or "oversold" could be quantified then nothing would ever deviate
In a quadrillion $ derivative infected global casino where every swing dick trades everything under the sun in his underwear from the living room sofa...there are no true prices for anything.
Derivatives are about to get smashed, i would'nt touch one w/ a 20 foot pole.
All of the same brokers who have been wrong about gold for the last 12 years are pounding the table that gold should be sold, and even shorted.
Yeah. OK.
"So yeah, central banks will stop printing any minute now, and gold will go to zero, so Cyprus - please sell your gold to the Troika, Russia, Goldman or China now before it plunges to triple, double, single, or zero digit range."
lol...well stated & no sarc tag needed.
Yen/gold negative ~136000...... significant rally since BoJ's yen detonation(155000peak),we're below pre-policy expansion levels although dollar/yen still higher....who woulda thought it?
Sacrificial lamb, GLD bullion holdings plummeting as we speak...err type.
The EUR has to go down the drain and bring the Fed along with it like a 16 ton ball and chain. Shit is coming to the south of Europe and it's going to be fluid.
locked in earlier at 52x/20(26.25/ 2012 eagle) at bullion direct...
went sub23 very briefly when gold touched 1385
it was up to 23.1 by the time i could push all the keys.
very happy
may have timed the bottom,..
Pizza delivery here! I just need you to confirm your address.
I hope for your sake they stay solvent. That would mean they weren't levereaged.
Capitulation bichez!
But the whole of the commodity space is troubling - deflationary spiral?
yes it is deflationary spiral but you know what ? Bernanke/Draghi can trigger it any moment upwards
Watch the gold/silver ratio.
Above 60 and it's worth accumulating silver rather than gold. If it gets above 70-80 it's worth swapping all the gold you have into silver.
Some charts for you.
http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html
p.s. not if you have to pay 20% VAT on silver of course.
A bubble popping. So easy to understand
Check out huffpost for the one- and two-digit IQ blog, carlsbro...
Please remove all sharp objects and fat fingers before standing next to the DOW.
A system collapsing before our eyes. Hard for me to grok.
I don't recall ever seeing a bubble that expanded sideways for two years.
Severe Silver/Gold Backwardation - Co-Basis through the roof!!!
Keith Weiner weekly Basis report:
http://monetary-metals.com/basis-report-14-apr-2013-%E2%80%8E/
Is this the bit when everything is fixed? Im pretty sure im being told everything is fixed and we are going to stop printing soon "money" soon. On a side note isnt it interesting now the gold market is falling that every man and his dog is an expert in gold bullion and are telling people the bull market is over. Had some guy in work today who hasnt got a clue and doesnt have an ounce to his name tell me this morning that gold is now in terminal decline. WTF! He didnt say anything about buying it when the price was climbing.
The only relevant question: how much more fiat has been printed since gold was $1900 back in 2011?
And how much more bought by CBs and how much repatriated by sovereigns and how much absorbed by Asia/MiddleEast for non-dollar transactions. It's not just an inflation hedge it's money and everyone buy the US MSM knows it.
i hope Tyler stops letting that sloth Chris Whalen on here. He is a dirty pirate hooker. On CNBC right now blowing Bob doll and trashing gold.
He is a pos and never to be trusted. However, I believe Bob Dole is an evil sob.
Gold Gold Gold....What about Copper Break of Trendline that goes back to 2009. As mentioned in this site, every time copper hit that trendline something bad happened.
This time copper has broken down and the target is close to $200. Still wondering nwhat the "bad thing" will be this time around.
Also, GOLD traced out a very clear trendline from 2008 to 2011. It broke down already and target should be around $1200. Longer-term should be a very good buy opportunity.
Enjoy.
SATAN REIGNS OVER THE FINANCIALS ! CALL AN EXORCIST
We just need to find a herd of swine standing next to the sea.....it's been done.
Boy....those farmers were ticked.
Satan? I thought financials are ruled by Mammon
As I said in another thread, the my local suppliers here in Europe have upped their buy premiums all the way to 10% (cheapest I found is 5%, used to be 1%).
I'm also seeing offers to buy the most common Gold coins at prices higher than their gold content value priced in Comex Gold IOUs.
Seeing it too. My large national dealer closed over the weekend "due to unprecedented demand and price volatility". Then when they opened this morning delivery went from next day to three days to one week, and ALL the silver that was left disapeared exept some 100gram bars.
My dealer has 15,45 % premiums on silver Maples, and 20,10 % on silver Eagles.
pd 13.6% ov spot at b.d. 23.1>26.25
all over the fucking map.
like 9mm blaz brass
shortages loaming in the necessities of life...
bitcheez cheap
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/04/13/assault-on-gold-update-paul-c...
Nice article and key point to highlight.
Consider the 500 tons of paper gold sold on Friday. Begin with the question, how many ounces is 500 tons? There are 2,000 pounds to one ton. 500 tons equal 1,000,000 pounds. There are 16 ounces to one pound, which comes to 16 million ounces of short sales on Friday.
Who has 16 million ounces of gold? At the beginning gold price that day of about $1,550, that comes to $24,800,000,000. Who has that kind of money?
What happens when 500 tons of gold sales are dumped on the market at one time or on one day? Correct, it drives the price down. Investors who want to get out of large positions would spread sales out over time so as not to lower their sales proceeds. The sale took gold down by about $73 per ounce. That means the seller or sellers lost up to $73 dollars 16 million times, or $1,168,000,000.
Who can afford to lose that kind of money? Only a central bank that can print it.
I would personally add the second option is a central bank proxy aka primary dealer like JPM and GS who get to drink from the money tap.
> There are 16 ounces to one pound
You do know that precious metals are measured in troy ounces, right?
Troy ounces, 12 to the troy pound, 31.1 grams, 32 troy ounces to the kg. Give or take.
I didn't realize that they had declared war on us until today. I salute those of you who did, because they never really announced it.
If we told you once we told you 16.5 trillion times.... You must have your assets in paper products....silly peasants.
This is the best thing to happen to gold & silver bugs in 30 years. IT'S OVER! The paperhangers ARE DONE.There is NO MORE PHYSICAL for all intent and purpose. Mark my words...you are going to see new highs in the PMs that will astonish you.
tell me then please why those buying paper gold do not demand physical delivery ? This would force short-sellers to step aside (if they forced to deliver physical)
This does not happen so my guess is those buyers are not interested in physical - they simply speculate with paper
the one's investing in paper metals are the very one's manipulating the price lower so they can control all FX paper markets and fiat currencies... They don't want the price going higher because it threatens their paper palaces...
Another reason:
Chavez gold is gonna stay in Venezuela
http://rt.com/news/venezuela-presidential-election-results-853/
Bernanke is looking for gold action and thinking:
if gold drops deep enough i will start printing to fight deflation
if gold sinks just slightly it indicates fear for inflation is still high so i will continue austerity
All along I have thought that having Gold accepted as core collateral was a ruse by the powers that be, to eventually get hold of it. This smackdown has begun that confiscation.
..and yes, I did predict these prices ( marginally better ones) earlier this year at about this time. Never thought it would happen though.
"confiscation"
LoL are you on crack? For all of those crazy people who believe in these stupid conspiracy theories, tell me why would the gov't ACTIVELY sell you gold and silver from the mint when they're trying to 'steal' it from you??
the consipiracy nuts will tell you this is some kind of cover up... sure. like the absence of proof is the actual proof of a cover up... circular nonesense.
how many people rob a bank and then give the money back to the bank?? the truth is that the small investor is always the last sucker to know, look at mint sales, they peaked when gold price peaked and were at the bottom when gold price bottomed.
there is no conspiracy, only retail investors who are suckers buying up this snake oil that is used to drive sales for these businesses selling fear
At the time, I called gold's high of 22nd Aug 2011 the peak......I haven't had to eat any hats so far.
*smug face*
Deflation in Gold and Silver and inflation in my cable bill, my car insurance and my utilities, taxes and food.
I mean quick too. Very noticable over the last 3 months.
pathetic... gold runs from 300 to 1800 in 13 years and yet you dont see how it can go down, it has FAR outpaced inflation and was bubbly (still is). did your cable car insurance utillities tax and food go up 5-6 times in 13 years... get a clue people...
What's wrong darling ? you look worried since a couple of days , you wanna talk about it ? is it my fault ? it's my fault right ... Are you hiding me something ? yeah you must be .. is it your ex again ?
Far outpaced inflation? What was the price of gas at the pump 13 years ago?
"Gold collapse on break of 1,522/25 key support has forced copper, oil to take a beating"
I don't understand what the barbaric relic has to do with copper and oil.
They are real and thus have real value......get it now?
I'm no expert, but wasn't this decoupling expected? This is the worst part about making these sort of bets, the wait to see if (and when) the physical metals start to rise due to demand (not paper). Won't paper demand have to again couple in order for TPTB to again manipluate the price?
So my bet was to stockpile physical metals, watch the decouipling plunge,m and then hope that the controls are not re-engaged afterwards, correct?
BTW - thanks to many on this board for steadying my nerves through this wager. With a wife and six kids this can be nerve wracking.
It's not over until the COMEX defaults on deliveries. After that, there will be no recoupling.
It's not the six kids...
One thing I fail to understand is that why most analysts are recommending the purchase of Gold as a safe investment? The problem today is that the price of Gold is not derived by it's physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency.
The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.
The price of everything including Gold is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions due to some event that they have not anticipated or foreseen.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html
www.letstalkmoney2012.in
yeah but it keeps them off the streets. Have you seen corzines public driving record? And that does not included hundreds of incidents suppressed 'cause you know he is honorable and stuff.
The price of stuff you need, doesn't change much relative to gold, not over long periods. What changes are dollars.
why? why do you listen to most analyst at all?
investment? don't know about that. I buy because so I don't need psychodrugs. and I sleep better at night
physical has those effects on barbarians ;-)
for months anyone who came on here and predicted this was labeled a troll. now anyone who comes on here and says bubble, bubble, toil and trouble is a troll too.
I TOLD YOU SO BITCHEZ!
hahahahahahahahaha [/ozzy]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otdHbA4GlSI
Tom Keene rasps out its not fundementals its religion and that will now be tested with this drop
He is a lesbian-voiced, keynesian shill. His equities - the true "religion" - are next.
Oh yea keep dropping. Mines will begin to shut down. Time for mines and mining right purchases.
cost of production is $600 per ounce. So miners are still doing fine with this drop
Every source I've read says your wrong. Link please?
Someone said this on an earlier thread,
But something big is going down here folks, real big.
You mean other than the obvious "the world eCONoME is running off the tracks" answer?
Could be buzz, could be.
Is this it then? Is this what we have waited five years for? The collapse of the western economic system?
And now we find out that the pension funds here in Britain have a £100 billion shortfall? Burn this fucker down.
They tried to juice the bitch but it didn't take. Brick and mortar retail is going down big time, even the bigs. I have seen a last ditch push to build more commercial property around here just like what happened before the big crash in the 1980s. Yeah, this is it. They can either let it burn or make the usd wortyless and too many major powers have a vested interest in the usd for that to happen. It was all a bluff and the poor people couldn't call because they are, well, flat busted.
I'm with you on that buzz,
Mark Carney takes over here and announces that QE is going to happen straight away, aye thats going to help eh? Give the fucking criminals more free money while destroying the moneys value further.
Fucking criminal cartels, lets get this over with, lets bring these fuckers justice.