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Empire Fed Latest Economic Disappointment, Drops To Lowest Since January, Misses Expectations
As if the world needed yet another confirmation that the US economy is floundering (even if it means a new all time high for the now largely laughable farce formerly known as the S&P500), it just got it courtesy of the April Empire Fed Mfg Index, which dropped for the second month in a low to the lowest since January, printing at just 3.05, down from 9.24, and well below expectations of 7.00. Supposedly this too will be blamed on either balmy April weather, or Easter. The key New Orders index dropped from 8.18 to 2.20, which in itself may be insufficient to push the S&P to new all time highs, so the Shipments drop from 7.76 to 0.75 should definitely top the ES well into the green. The only piece of bad news for the "market" was the Number of Employees, which rose from 3.23 to 6.82. Although this may be one of those reports where bad data is great, but good data is greater.
From the report:
The general business conditions index was positive for a third consecutive month, though at 3.1, it suggested that conditions had improved only slightly. Twenty-five percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index posted a similar decline, falling six points to 2.2—an indication that orders were just slightly higher. The shipments index, down seven points to 0.8, showed that shipments were little changed. The unfilled orders index inched down a point to ?3.4, and the delivery time index also fell one point to ?3.4. The inventories index held steady at ?4.6, indicating that inventory levels fell slightly.
Finally, and as always, Empire Fed respondents were lamenting that all potential job workers are only qualified to play Call of Duty and collect unemployment and disability:
Responses in this month’s survey were not substantially different from those recorded either last April or in August 2011. As in the earlier surveys, workers with advanced computer skills were seen as the hardest to find: on a scale of 0 to 100, this task received a difficulty rating of 62 in this month’s survey— almost identical to its rating in earlier surveys. (See the table for a detailed explanation of this measure.) Finding workers who are punctual and reliable received the second highest difficulty rating; this rating climbed slightly from 54 in the survey conducted a year ago to 57 in the current survey. In general, difficulty ratings for most of the skill categories were a bit lower than in the April 2012 survey but about the same as in the August 2011 survey—an interesting comparison given that New York State’s labor market has tightened over the past year.
But, everyone knows how to tweet on their iPhone: isn't that a sufficient advanced computer skill?
Lastly, and most laughably, for the third year in a row employers keep expecting to keep their workers more, yet somehow never do.
Source: NY Fed
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Everyone put on your shocked face.
I was truly shocked last week when I saw a headline that said Retail was soft despite gas prices tumbling.
Who considers dropping a dime, tumbling?
Good news. Period.
They are in panic mode guys. Ben wishes he could quit right now. The PM smack down was a desparate move.
Something big is coming soon.
TIC goes negative for first time since July, 2009:
http://www.forexfactory.com/
Foreigners are dumping US bonds,,,
Oracle,
I agree. This doesn't smell right. I think the fed is pot committed, they have to keep going...probably step it up (like Japan).
Not sure what, but the life support will be increased...they can't pull back. They can only bolster their bet.
these reports will simply allow Kevin Henry to do what he does best - manipulate the VIX at all cost, as he's already shown this morning
I call for a green day (he said as he puked on his shoes)
That dime equates to $1.80 for a full tank. That means you can buy half a happy meal and at least be optimistic that the economy is recovering. If you complain there will be no recovery for you....
WHERE'S MY RECOVERY BITCH!!
WHERE'S MY ECONOMY BITCH!!
Dude....you keep that up and they're gonna confiscate your guns.
THE ONLY WOMAN WHO GET TO TOUCH MY GUN ARE THOSE OF WHO'M I'M HOLDING THEIR TITS IN MY HANDS!
This is entirely reasonable.
Ben promised us recovery and helicopter money distribution. Ben can you hear us? Print money and give to people to get velocity. That's the only way.
Everyone will spend the money. I promise.
"Deflation Nation," is what my CPA calls it now....sad...very dismal indeed.
Happy Patriot's Day although the actual battles of Lexington and Concord were on April 19th.
And Happy Tax Day too; bitchez.
nothing that can't be fixed by printing at a slightly faster rate
give jamie a bigger bonus, that'll make it better
Obviously deflationary, which is hardcore bearish for Gold. As we all know, however, stocks are immune from the effects of deflation. Except mining stocks, of course.
Some chartists & technical analysts have targeted 150 on the $hui which would put it at '08 panic lows...yeah sure,i'm looking to buy miners around 250 levels on the $huey.Hmmm....Randgold looks pretty good here with limited downside.
DOW 16000 right around the corner.
I tell ya this economy is in bad shape and it's getting worse. The economy is so bad that..... Donald Trump had to get a part time job as a Donald Trump impersonater.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oShTJ90fC34
Why haven't futures turned green on this?
A rhetorical question? There is no "market".
There is just a big dial at the Fed and they turn it to whereever they deem necessary to make us all feel wealthy.
Waiting for the "bill auctions" in a couple hours.
Moar new highs today.
The day is young, MD. The day is young.
Don't worry sheeple. Scarcity will soon trump any deflation fears that you or ivy tower eCONomists may have. - "Winning".
The market will be green by 10 am.
ES right in line with Euro this morning. Shit vs Shit.
"Finally, and as always, Empire Fed respondents were lamenting that all potential job workers are only qualified to play Call of Duty and collect unemployment and disability"
I have this argument all the time with other parents who think because a kid can use technology means that they can work in technology.
Anyone go to the malls lately? No one buying nada even with 80% discounts and a stack of coupons...two more boarded shops....I guess GS would call that "Bullish?"
"...play Call of Duty and collect unemployment and disability"
LOL!
My version:
"...play Gears of War and collect unemployment and disability"
But seriously, that line about "...workers with advanced computer skills were seen as the hardest to find:" is a crock of shit. As usual, U.S. CORPORATIONS DON'T WANT TO SPEND ONE CENT OR ONE MINUTE TRAINING ANYONE ANYTHING!
I've done computer work for 20 years but I don't have a degree and 27 certifications. I can do the work, but they don't want an older person who expects a decent salary and to be treated like a human being.
They want 21 year old naive drones who have all the certs and can program COBOL upside down while wiring a network cluster as they handle a teleconference over iPhones via Linux servers while preventing the P.L.A. from hacking the Vice President's Windows 95 Pentium II desktop and show him how to use email.
You're dead on!
The job descriptions are just unbelievable; not only do you have to be able to program every dead computer language on PC or Mac you have to have five years experience in every program ever made and you have to do it with:
"Progressively responsible experience in emerging paradigms of interactive security, usability, and on e-commerce platforms that embody cutting edge social media trends in app development with concomitant Twitter feed visualization, Facebook integration, and webpage traffic with 100% accuracy and integrated system redundancy."
Sounds quite repelling to me ...
Have you ever considered simply lying? It's the new success paradigm, if you haven't noticed.
Could it be, that he still holds up the rules of a working-life, where lying to your employer was a solid reason to get fired immediately? Just my 2 cents ....
I give you another +1000 for the unrealistic expectations in HR today. I recently applied for a design job at a smaller firm.
They wanted:
10 years+ experience, fluent in Alias, Rhino, and Solidworks. Must have medical equipment design background, consumer product bacground, and trasportation design a plus. Be willing to travel to China. Position also includes packaging design, POP, and website design.
Essentially, you must be able to do everything. While the expectations were not truly insane, you can find people that fit, the salary was. The offer was $30k for a job that easily paid $80k-100k ten years ago.
Why? Because the company can outsource every project to China and have a team of Chinese do the work for a quarter what the firm would pay you. So in order to get a job you literaly need to do the work of ten people and be willing to get paid for the work of half of one.
Classic, thanks for sharing.
Yeah, outsource to China/India or a Visa holder in the U.S. - God forbid they have to pay a U.S. Citizen a living wage!
A living wage in this country would be lower if the POS bernanke would stop creating fiat out of thin air.
forget the corps(e)...who needs em anywho?
have you planted your garden yet?
it's springtime for adr in ohio...
BINGO!!!!
+ just for the Gears reference.
corps bitch about the govt and regulations and all of this other shit and then sit back and expect the govt to train people without the corps having to spend a dime.
It's not Easter or the weather sillyhead, they needed an excuse that can be used for months: It's the sequester's fault!!!!...duh
After Japan's decsion to print till they drop, now wondering if the really big deal about to go down and the reason for trashing a bunch of things is the Fed is about to go hyperdrive printing to the edges of space.
Well, North Korea is the US's and China's lever to control the hard working efficient Japanese work force. How about that?
Bastards
....even if it means a new all time high for the now largely laughable farce formerly known as the S&P500)....
When ZH prints this as editorial material, it stigmatises the market as a totalitarian mechanism.
By so doing it OPENLY crosses the Rubicon of MSM financial blog sites who respect the SYSTEM.
No wonder that there is all this finger pointing in MSM against the likes of ZH; as here :
GOLD BUGS: This Gold Crash Is A Government Conspiracy - Business Insider
The "gold bug" conspirators are now heretics of mainstream CAPITALISM.
We are now openly in ideological war.
Not only amongst the oligarchs but also their media minions or defiant contrarians.
Ideological war as here :
Everyone Should Be Thrilled By The Collapse Of Gold - Business Insider
Couldn't be said more clearly : anybody who DISAGREES is dangerous by definition.
"We are now openly in ideological war."
I can only speak for me, but that is exactly why I came here in the first place. So if this gets going, I'm just feeling honored. Project mayhem, bitchez!
Under these conditions equities prove they only care about one thing : QE.
ES should be down slightly more than .5%, BAH!
Wow! Isn't this 0bama economy JUST GREAT?
Wonder why QE hasn't been in place much sooner? It's the grand solution. Never mind fundamental valuation, volatility, buyers and sellers, market forces etc..... This is so much easier with no cost, no risk, only one direction (UP) and plenty of Kool-Aid.
Zerohedge you must conform to the mindset of the MSM, stay within the mandated narrative.
Message to sychopantic MSM. The system which you have helped corrupt deserves no respect. Where there is no law that the bank elite can be held to, where the middle class can be bankrupted to pay out the bank masters of government, and you are there cheering them on the sidelines.
MSM you are part of the problem.
ALSO if the MSM are attacking ZH over the gold story which is supported by some pretty hefty names such as the former Assisnant Sec Treasury....then it must be a worry for the TPTB and is now necessary to try and ridicule ZH before too many begin to understand how TPTB and their accomplices the MSM actually operate.
yes, all the big tools are out in force openly ridiculing the hedge these days.
question is: who wrote the memo?
This will be spun as bullish over in Imagination Land. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7AT7nuqmcc
a miss is a hit and a hit is a miss or is if it is a miss the hit will make a a a a oh shit it's whatever they need it to be.
asia red= check
europe modestly red for 2nd straight session= check
commodities plunge for 2nd straight session= check
horrendous global data= check
so what does that all = u.s futures coming basically all the way back, to the point where they prob will be green by 10 am as someone above pointed out.
thankgod citigroup reported today, and boy those are earnings to get excited about. its not like they lowered there expectations and beat, o wait nevermind, of course they needed to lower expectations only to beat slightly on revenue, and a bit above on eps.
all the biggest financial market fraud in the world is good for these days is a very good laugh. i hope you all enjoy the comedy today that will be appearing shortly.
we may open modestly red, but dont worry the '' people''( fed fed cough cough) are buying alll the dips. keep telling us that the ''people'' are buying the dips though cnbc, because we all believe that crap.
Lots of pressure to hold the US Dollar down - Euro up slightly and Yen rocketing.
Europe and Japan - two places you want to invest in - LMAO.
When these currencies drop, the US Dollar will rocket - and then watch the fireworks.
It means Bernanke and the fed will double QE. More and more QE. That's their only answer.
Want to know what the Fed will do, look at Japan.
Japan is being directed by the US Federal Reserve.
Yes, and so is Germany, although I think they are about to crack. Especially if those gold shipments get delayed.
Soft patches ahead?
Contractionary policies are contractionary. Not much to cypher through, here.
Want demand? CREATE JOBS!!!
Want the deficit to plummet? CREATE JOBS!
Seems the agenda of the ridiculously rich, and the "Very Serious" Deficit Scolds isn't to worry at all about Demand or the big, bad Deficit-- it's about using their fake, manufactured crisis to squeeze every last dime and crumb of food out of the skins of the Poor, the Middle and Working Classes, until we arrive back at the time of the Robber Barons. Only then will our Labor Pool be "Competitive" again-- with Haiti, Laos, and Vietnam. Mission Accomplished.
Not quite, demand is not the problem, resource scarcity is. Wake up, with 7+ billion people fighting for a better quality of life, there is plenty of fucking demand.
Never have discounted that, Peak EVERYTHING is quite real. This article is presented as a microcosmic sliver of the Macrocosm, which no media source anywhere seems to want to discuss, about US Domestic Manufacturing. So, I responded to the micro-sliver.
But, yes-- Peak EVERYTHING is a real problem, and nobody is willing to look at it in the Circles Of Power-- especially the Bankster Class.
The Empire Fed is a foppish cod piece for their Bernanke.
Can any one tell me why Amazon keeps moving higher with all the misses in consumer confidence, higher taxes, retail sales down etc? It makes no sense.