What Happened The Last Time We Saw Gold Drop Like This?

Tyler Durden's picture

The rapidity of gold's drop is impressive, concerning, and disorderly. We have seen two other such instances of disorderly 'hurried' selling in the last five years. In July 2008, gold quickly dropped 21% - seemingly pre-empting the Lehman debacle and the collapse of the western banking system. In September 2011, gold fell 20% in a short period - as Europe's risks exploded and stocks slumped prompting a globally co-ordinated central bank intervention the likes of which we have not seen before. Given the almost-record-breaking drop in gold in the last few days, we wonder what is coming?

 

 

This is what it looked like in Q3 2008...

 

and in 2011...

 

and now...

 

 

and it seems safety is bid dramatically elsewhere as 2Y Swiss rates plunge 4bps to -7bps - their lowest in 4 months...

Charts: Bloomberg

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Abraxas's picture

If it goes much lower they'll be paying me to take it.

insanelysane's picture

Guy on CNBS just said "Don't buy the dip in gold"

These fuckers are always saying buy the dip on everything.

francis_sawyer's picture

What's next?... BAZOOKAS...

~~~

They have to clear out all the inventory from every dealer on the planet before they announce that QE is going to $200 billion a month & people decide to finally cash in their 401k's... They can't have that happening before they confiscate it all...

cifo's picture

ZH is eerily quiet for such an interesting day.

Stunned?

Precious's picture

Wait.  

You mean the free market is sending the economists at the Central Banks a message?

Who would have guessed.

draug's picture

Every other indicator posted on ZH points to a big coming drop in the S&P 500. Credit, macro data, now gold. So in other words .. BULLISH!

johnQpublic's picture

whats coming?

why a buy the fucking dip opportunity of course!

 

remember, all that glitters is not gold!

theres silver and platinum too!

but seriously, i think they will quickly double,triple, or quadruple the QE as needed to fuel the (sarc) recovery

JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Looks like they really don't want silver over $23.

strannick's picture

What a coincidence, as a buyer of the most established anti-centralbank currency in history, I also would like an opportunity to buy silver under $23. I have more in common with the fascist bankster cabal than I thought.

The Juggernaut's picture

Add the Boston Marathon to that.

Joe Sixpack's picture

Don't forget palladium (though not quite as glittery).

akarc's picture

Everything works until it doesn't. This time is not different from any other time historically. Gold and Oil (barring sudden missle launches) first then stocks. Gravity affects all things my friends. Even Bernanke can't stop it unless he decides to buy China.    

malikai's picture

The market is not free.

Precious's picture

The gold market is about as free as they get.

whotookmyalias's picture

.....and it is not "efficient" either.  Those lies have been uncovered.

Stackers's picture

mini-black swans are popping off left and right. Be prepared this year guys

justinius1969's picture

Agreed...

Circa 1000.. then back up your amoured truck.. why don't  you gold bugs trade this?  what have you got to loose buying selling paper..

Bastiat's picture

Ummmm, let's see . . .  everything in your account?

Urban Redneck's picture

I'm holding off 48hrs and then deciding to either commit more then, or wait for a possible better re-entry later.  But at this point concentration risk is also an issue.  

LibertarianX's picture

down at the gold market and it's mobbed

 

KRUZER's picture

,,,,,,,,,,YA!!!!!!!!!!!

Smiley's picture

Much of the "chatter base" is busy implementing contingency plans this dip may have triggered.

Precious's picture

Watch this video on how to make a fortune flipping gold coins.

francis_sawyer's picture

Everyone around here worries about gold being confiscated... It's the 401k's that are the low hanging fruit in the equation [especially with Obamacare coming online]...

~~~

Cyprus was the template to see how easy it could be done... Not a single shot fired... Just a lot of "baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"... 401k's to be DieselBOOMed in 5..4..3..2.. [but not before there's no inventory of PM's to be found in bulk, anywhere]... & bitcoins?... Ha! Go ahead & ride that bucking bronco... Not a lot of 401k tortoises around that are interested in that ride...

"Look honey, I can buy the Harley Cruiser today... Oh wait honey, better start clipping coupons..."

Dudeskis's picture

The US pols might think like Euros but the US pop doesn't. Well, maybe many of us can identify with a 1789 Frenchman.

francis_sawyer's picture

As predicted ^^^^ the casual drive-by by 'Bitcoin Von Junkenheimer'...

~~~

Anyway ~ I stick to my theory [vis-a-vis 401k's]... She didn't marry you so you could blow it all in one day... She married you so SHE could blow it all in one day... [Or ~ at minimum, was playing the odds that YOU'D fuck up or die first]... So if you're not divorced or dead ~ u ain't buyin no bitcoins with no 401k...

 

James_Cole's picture

Market crash before fall seemed unlikely but now who knows.

Bastiat's picture

DHS didn't buy all that stuff for nothing.

JeffB's picture

I thought the tanks were supposed to precede the "blood in the streets".

Spider's picture

Silver drop isnt sustainable - it costs $23 and change to mine each ounce.  Like both gold and silver, but silver MUCH MUCH more here...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303691-the-true-cost-to-mine-silver-complete-2012-figures

Temporis's picture

I hope the shit drops to $5.00 an oz.

I would LOVE to buy a monster box one of these days...The more it drops, the more I can buy.

 

You only LOSE when you SELL, and most people who buy physical are in it for the long haul and NOT daily traiders.

fourchan's picture

ill take all the monster boxes they dont want too lol

gold is a "dooms day for paper" investment, its not a trading vehicle but a fundamental trade more like the finite number of years you have to live. a fixed value for exchange with the most valuable thing any of us has, the time we have on earth.a paper system that is debased daily is a poor exchange for that value and is fundamentally evil because of its intent of robbing you silently of that which you have given your life for. the day to day swings of this evil enslaver, debt note, has nothing to do with the reason for holding gold or people too brainwashed to recognize what true value actually is. gold stands on its own, it is free, like americans were.

RockyRacoon's picture

Git ya one o' these.  I got some for the "loose" coins that didn't go down in the last boating excursion.

Empty Green Monster Box For Silver Eagle Coin Storage With Tubes

Free shipping!

Arttrader's picture

Here's my take.  First, adjust those mining prices to reflect a lower oil price. Then ask yourself "How much does it cost to recycle sterling scrap from the hoarders' treasure chests?" I've sold plenty to people like this on ebay, there will be another week for turnaround on retail and peer to peer selling and another week for small operators in the know to ship to places like midwestrefineries.com.  Fear is going to put piles of the physical on the market that we haven't seen since getting close to $50/ounce and they can't get ship it there fast enough. And don't count on industrial demand from Chinese electronics to make up for the flood of supply.

James_Cole's picture

Yep you are correct. Unfortunately, most on here won't see it. 

I would also add that overall mine production costs are very much inflated by low grade silver exclusive operations coming online in the past few years due to higher spot prices.

Bastiat's picture

. . . and on the supply side, don't count on increases in the silver produced as a by product of base metals, esp. copper as the world economy swirls the bowl.

ncdirtdigger's picture

Why would a miner, one that sold foward all his mines production (at $40+-) ,give a chit what it costs to mine silver? He has his money already all he has to do now is produce it.  

gun4A's picture

It will be cheaper for miner to buy than to produce 

Bob Sacamano's picture

Fortunately or unfortunately, the cost to mine silver will likely have no impact on the price of silver in 2013 or 2014.  Eventually cost of production becomes a material factor to the current price, but it can take years.   Looking for $18-20 this year for next buying opportunity in size.  And will have powder for additional buys below that level.  

akarc's picture

"Silver drop isnt sustainable"

Your assuming demand is.

Anasteus's picture

He really said that?

But it's understandable. If significant more people started buying now the today's farce would go bust together with the whole physical market in days. They are still being scared of the possible output... and no wonder.

We can be expecting additional tide of massive brainwashing from the united pundits of the world these days. Fasten your seat belts.

The only problem is that the Easterners don't buy it and will all be happy to piling up at even steeper pace.

natronic's picture

Right but they are stocks and bonds people.  CNBC will ALWAYS tell you not to buy gold.  They might mention ETF's or Stocks but they won't tell you to buy the phyzzz.

fourchan's picture

because buffet tells them everything they need to hear.

michigan independant's picture

Also they said - wait for it - as a cautionary tale since if you have to ask your not paying attention. When they have to sell to cover equity calls also yes indeed pick some up then since the end is near in a few days for that book.

Silver Bug's picture

Wow something big is clearly coming. I'll be stocking up on physical gold and silver on these huge discounts. I'm buying big!

 

http://sprottmoneyblog.com/