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What Happened The Last Time We Saw Gold Drop Like This?
The rapidity of gold's drop is impressive, concerning, and disorderly. We have seen two other such instances of disorderly 'hurried' selling in the last five years. In July 2008, gold quickly dropped 21% - seemingly pre-empting the Lehman debacle and the collapse of the western banking system. In September 2011, gold fell 20% in a short period - as Europe's risks exploded and stocks slumped prompting a globally co-ordinated central bank intervention the likes of which we have not seen before. Given the almost-record-breaking drop in gold in the last few days, we wonder what is coming?
This is what it looked like in Q3 2008...
and in 2011...
and now...
and it seems safety is bid dramatically elsewhere as 2Y Swiss rates plunge 4bps to -7bps - their lowest in 4 months...
Charts: Bloomberg
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If it goes much lower they'll be paying me to take it.
Guy on CNBS just said "Don't buy the dip in gold"
These fuckers are always saying buy the dip on everything.
What's next?... BAZOOKAS...
~~~
They have to clear out all the inventory from every dealer on the planet before they announce that QE is going to $200 billion a month & people decide to finally cash in their 401k's... They can't have that happening before they confiscate it all...
banana republic wins!
ZH is eerily quiet for such an interesting day.
Stunned?
Wait.
You mean the free market is sending the economists at the Central Banks a message?
Who would have guessed.
Every other indicator posted on ZH points to a big coming drop in the S&P 500. Credit, macro data, now gold. So in other words .. BULLISH!
JCP is up! JCP is up?
whats coming?
why a buy the fucking dip opportunity of course!
remember, all that glitters is not gold!
theres silver and platinum too!
but seriously, i think they will quickly double,triple, or quadruple the QE as needed to fuel the (sarc) recovery
Looks like they really don't want silver over $23.
What a coincidence, as a buyer of the most established anti-centralbank currency in history, I also would like an opportunity to buy silver under $23. I have more in common with the fascist bankster cabal than I thought.
Add the Boston Marathon to that.
Don't forget palladium (though not quite as glittery).
Everything works until it doesn't. This time is not different from any other time historically. Gold and Oil (barring sudden missle launches) first then stocks. Gravity affects all things my friends. Even Bernanke can't stop it unless he decides to buy China.
The market is not free.
The gold market is about as free as they get.
.....and it is not "efficient" either. Those lies have been uncovered.
mini-black swans are popping off left and right. Be prepared this year guys
Agreed...
Circa 1000.. then back up your amoured truck.. why don't you gold bugs trade this? what have you got to loose buying selling paper..
i'm buying.
Ummmm, let's see . . . everything in your account?
I'm holding off 48hrs and then deciding to either commit more then, or wait for a possible better re-entry later. But at this point concentration risk is also an issue.
*lose, not loose
down at the gold market and it's mobbed
,,,,,,,,,,YA!!!!!!!!!!!
Much of the "chatter base" is busy implementing contingency plans this dip may have triggered.
Watch this video on how to make a fortune flipping gold coins.
Everyone around here worries about gold being confiscated... It's the 401k's that are the low hanging fruit in the equation [especially with Obamacare coming online]...
~~~
Cyprus was the template to see how easy it could be done... Not a single shot fired... Just a lot of "baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"... 401k's to be DieselBOOMed in 5..4..3..2.. [but not before there's no inventory of PM's to be found in bulk, anywhere]... & bitcoins?... Ha! Go ahead & ride that bucking bronco... Not a lot of 401k tortoises around that are interested in that ride...
"Look honey, I can buy the Harley Cruiser today... Oh wait honey, better start clipping coupons..."
The US pols might think like Euros but the US pop doesn't. Well, maybe many of us can identify with a 1789 Frenchman.
As predicted ^^^^ the casual drive-by by 'Bitcoin Von Junkenheimer'...
~~~
Anyway ~ I stick to my theory [vis-a-vis 401k's]... She didn't marry you so you could blow it all in one day... She married you so SHE could blow it all in one day... [Or ~ at minimum, was playing the odds that YOU'D fuck up or die first]... So if you're not divorced or dead ~ u ain't buyin no bitcoins with no 401k...
Market crash before fall seemed unlikely but now who knows.
"Tanks in the streets"
DHS didn't buy all that stuff for nothing.
I thought the tanks were supposed to precede the "blood in the streets".
Silver drop isnt sustainable - it costs $23 and change to mine each ounce. Like both gold and silver, but silver MUCH MUCH more here...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303691-the-true-cost-to-mine-silver-complete-2012-figures
I hope the shit drops to $5.00 an oz.
I would LOVE to buy a monster box one of these days...The more it drops, the more I can buy.
You only LOSE when you SELL, and most people who buy physical are in it for the long haul and NOT daily traiders.
ill take all the monster boxes they dont want too lol
gold is a "dooms day for paper" investment, its not a trading vehicle but a fundamental trade more like the finite number of years you have to live. a fixed value for exchange with the most valuable thing any of us has, the time we have on earth.a paper system that is debased daily is a poor exchange for that value and is fundamentally evil because of its intent of robbing you silently of that which you have given your life for. the day to day swings of this evil enslaver, debt note, has nothing to do with the reason for holding gold or people too brainwashed to recognize what true value actually is. gold stands on its own, it is free, like americans were.
Git ya one o' these. I got some for the "loose" coins that didn't go down in the last boating excursion.
Empty Green Monster Box For Silver Eagle Coin Storage With TubesFree shipping!
Here's my take. First, adjust those mining prices to reflect a lower oil price. Then ask yourself "How much does it cost to recycle sterling scrap from the hoarders' treasure chests?" I've sold plenty to people like this on ebay, there will be another week for turnaround on retail and peer to peer selling and another week for small operators in the know to ship to places like midwestrefineries.com. Fear is going to put piles of the physical on the market that we haven't seen since getting close to $50/ounce and they can't get ship it there fast enough. And don't count on industrial demand from Chinese electronics to make up for the flood of supply.
Yep you are correct. Unfortunately, most on here won't see it.
I would also add that overall mine production costs are very much inflated by low grade silver exclusive operations coming online in the past few years due to higher spot prices.
. . . and on the supply side, don't count on increases in the silver produced as a by product of base metals, esp. copper as the world economy swirls the bowl.
Why would a miner, one that sold foward all his mines production (at $40+-) ,give a chit what it costs to mine silver? He has his money already all he has to do now is produce it.
It will be cheaper for miner to buy than to produce
Fortunately or unfortunately, the cost to mine silver will likely have no impact on the price of silver in 2013 or 2014. Eventually cost of production becomes a material factor to the current price, but it can take years. Looking for $18-20 this year for next buying opportunity in size. And will have powder for additional buys below that level.
"Silver drop isnt sustainable"
Your assuming demand is.
He really said that?
But it's understandable. If significant more people started buying now the today's farce would go bust together with the whole physical market in days. They are still being scared of the possible output... and no wonder.
We can be expecting additional tide of massive brainwashing from the united pundits of the world these days. Fasten your seat belts.
The only problem is that the Easterners don't buy it and will all be happy to piling up at even steeper pace.
Right but they are stocks and bonds people. CNBC will ALWAYS tell you not to buy gold. They might mention ETF's or Stocks but they won't tell you to buy the phyzzz.
because buffet tells them everything they need to hear.
Also they said - wait for it - as a cautionary tale since if you have to ask your not paying attention. When they have to sell to cover equity calls also yes indeed pick some up then since the end is near in a few days for that book.
Wow something big is clearly coming. I'll be stocking up on physical gold and silver on these huge discounts. I'm buying big!
http://sprottmoneyblog.com/
Spam?
yesterday at wal-mart i met a man with the entire store stock of spam and every single 20 ga. shot shell they had left
i sent the photo to 'people of wal-mart' and you may look for it there
I have called every coin shop and bullion dealer around. No one has anything and it is 6-8 weeks out for delivery cash up front. Is anyone else experiencing the same thing?
Local dealer here had ASEs marked at $36, said he couldnt sell em for less then he bought em for, then mumbled something about Draghi...
I couldnt get apmex or silvertown to function, i did make an order from apmex via ebay though. Good deal on their 5 oz bars. Will be interesting to see if there is a problem with delivery.
Cheap enough, takes Paypal (for that additional layer of anonymity), and ships for free:
10-14 @ $33.08
15+ @ $32.98
Coin dealer here in L.A. has 1,000s of ounces for sale. I picked up 1,000 at spot + .99 cents/ounce. Since then he's bumped up the premium to $1.75 over.
I called a major coin shop in my area today (they're big, have shops in several cities and cast their own bullion). They said the only coins they have left are a few Krugmarand (pun intended).
When I asked about Philarmonic, they told they've been ordered but the delivery from Austrian mint is overdue. I asked how long it would take, and they wouldn't even know.
I run to get my hand on those Krugs, and found that the shop has closed early. Out of luck today. Tomorrow I'm definitely buying before prices go up or the physical market goes dry.
Buy the dip yes, but when? Hate to say it, but the CNBS guy may be unwittingly correct. How many of these past plunges in gold were just two days in duration?
I would be careful of thinking the worst is over.
If you think the asians sit idle while you make this kind of reasoning, think again.
The price can be whatever they like, but if the river runs dry, the paper price won't matter anymore.
Buy low - sell high........and I don't get high any more.
(OK, I was lying about the last part.)
you'd have to be high to sell your physical right now
Last time this shit swung like this, the US started to go into hyper-inflation (late 70's) and the Fed was forced to withdraw all that free liquidity they injected to spur growth, which resulted in the worst stagflationary environment.
you mean even worse-er stagflation than now? would that make it the worst-est ever-est?
It's worse than that....bell bottom worse.
So that's why those came back!
We wonder what is coming?
Jebus is coming so look busy!
"bell bottom worse."
i hope Disco does not return......
"What happend last time Apple fell 40%?"
Now down to 400 from 700....Isn't AAPL the most widely held hedge fund stock...and Congressmen too?
Apple Employees Are Sending Out Resumes Like Never Beforehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-executives-suddenly-more-willing-144...
laughing. well, ya know, the comex was drained....they are shaking the trees in desperation.
most of the online vendors have little or nothing left and the premiums are increasing by the hour. and all the local dealers around here haven't got an ounce of gold or silver left.
you have to wonder what happens if JPM takes silver to 17? do the dealers who can get it tack on twenty buck premiums?
I wouldn't be surprised.
LOL!!!! YEAH BABY!!
Jim Sinclair’s commentary on Saturday ...
The verbal intervention is almost at a manic level which means the central planners are scared to death.
Stand firm as we are totally correct in the future of gold and the US dollar. The so called US economic recovery is showing visible cracks in its fake armor. Stay long and strong in gold as the other sovereigns will not permit the USA to run wild with their assets.
If you have 2 cars sell one to buy gold.
Something wicked this way cometh...
This is the part of the tsunami where the sea goes out before the wave hits.
I love your analogy, man.
Something unexpected? Austria hit hard, as an outlier to other European bourses, today. Banking? Slovenian, Hungarian, Romanian mortgages in CHF by Austrian banks. Could this be yet another "little European problem" that is actually a bigger brick in the crumbling infrastucture?
Credit-Anstalt...
Has anyone gotten their tax return yet?
Just wondering.
That's one hell of a sudden whole to fill up for Obama & Co.
By "return," do you mean has anyone gotten money back from .gov? I wish.
6 weeks and waiting. Simple 1040.
Yep, last Wednesday per direct deposit.
Less than a week after I filed electronically. Surprised myself.
My direct deposit tax return was quick too, so I don't think there's a story there. It's the states that are out of money, Ben has all the elecctronic digits he needs.
Great analogy!
+1 Great analogy!
I wonder where Moses is.
"Let my people go!"
- Ben Shalom Bernanke (speaking to the Senate Banking Committee).
Did you guys dust off “The Deer In The Headlights” picture? Might be needing that soon.
Super analogy! +1350!
Exactly how I felt. You do t get a move like this on incrementally better economic outlook driving a potential for higher rates at an indeterminate time... Something is up
I agree. I think it signals a full retard Zimbabwe print fest.
At least we can all be "trillionaires."
Bruno Mars will be very happy:)
You meant to say quadrillionaires.
I already am, in Zim$.
You called????
Rinse & Repeat
BTFD
What is coming?
A helluva lotta boating accidents! That's what's coming.
PFDs Bitchez!
An usual number of lawyers today shot themselves in the back of a head with guns that did not match the caiibre of the bullets that killed them. Strange but true.
- Hilary Clinton.
From your lips, to God's ears.
Yeah. My spidey sense is tingling, too. Something just shifted deep below the surface, I think.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
Surely some revelation is at hand...
The bastards are trying the Opening of the Seven Seals Tricks on us.
If the end is nigh, then leave me with my shiny shit, because I'll attract all the girls with it.
No, that's not right , Knuks.
The Jabberwocky?
I thought I heard something gimbling.
Hmm, the world did gyre and wyvver there for just moment...
Was Timmah messing with that box that belongs to Pandora again?
Next thing you know, you're getting double-teamed by a Balrog and The Dragon Smaug.
The Ancient One has had enough of Bernake mocking him and is ascending. Brb going to get my Cthulhu robe.
The Dukes are selling gold to buy FCOJ.
"The Dukes are selling gold to buy FCOJ."
The Dukes "of Moral Hazard" are selling gold to buy FCOJ.
There....fixed it for ya. Still...you're spot on in your original analysis. +1,000,000 Bernanke Bucks !
Get in there and sell, sell, sell!
Mortimer Duke
If only these contracts were actually honored with delivery, it'd be the steal of a lifetime, instead you're the one taken for a ride.
OT: Apparently Ben was too flacid to give a proper injection into the markets via POMO. Someone get him some Cialis.
I've never had any interest in gold and I'm not going to pile on the guys hurting today from it.
I'll offer up one item of help. Capital loss harvesting. I don't know how you can maneuver it, but crashes are a time to harvest capital losses for tax purposes. You can't buy back the exact same thing for 30 days (though maybe 30 days is the right period to await a "bottom"), but maybe you can find something similar that lets you maintain exposure while getting the tax loss.
I didn't realize any of us was hurting from it. Last time I checked all my stacks are still there and I have no intention of selling. Most precious metal people look at this like a great opprtunity.
If price does not matter, I will gladly sell you a stack at last week's prices.
A capital loss is only useful to offset a gain, with minimal advantage to lowering you income. It's too late to sell, but may be a good time to buy. I haven't bought since gold was in the $700s and silver was in the $6s. This plunge is a sign of rolling banking crises. Once that slows down, the pendulum will swing the other way.
You guys are getting defensive and I wasn't attacking. The point is, if you bought an ETF recently and it's been smashed, you can sell it and the same day buy maybe a mutual fund devoted to gold. No loss of exposure to what you're doing, but you get a tax loss to offset any stock or bond cap gains, or $3000/yr against salary.
It's a good idea, crash.
Of course it will be a while before I work through the capital losses I have currently.
Are you my fired financial advisor?
All paper instruments must be burned. They are the clothing of devils and bankers. :D
And lol you said taxes :D :D :D :D
It's called the Wash Sale Rule. And be careful about the 30 day thing. It's actually 31 because of the way they make you count the days.
And you gotta have gains to offset against those losses otherwise it does you very little good ($3000/yr. in losses against regular income is the lid).
I'm not an accountant but I did stay and a Holiday Inn Express last night.
You did well for not being an accountant. That is all correct.
The most savvy of investors did this during the crash. Sold the S&P index funds and bought total market index funds, the same day. They are STILL sheltering capital gains with those losses, carried forward. They don't expire.
I feel doubly complemented.
I have enough tax loss carry-forward from 2008 to sink a battleship. I sold a bunch of stuff for the loss near year end, bought back 31 (very very nervous) days later.
Please don't point out that they don't expire on ZH. The government is listening and we don't need to give them new ideas on how to take more money from us. You bring it up, somebody in the administration reads it, and it's in Obama's next budget proposal a month from now.
You can shift between gold and silver "paper" and avoid the wash sale rule. (and the current g/s ratio may justify it based on one's individual portfolio composition)
However, I wouldn't feed the beast with physical, because it just encourages it....
No reasonto do 'bed and breakfast' tax sell and buybacks at this time/
Everbody's tax years are over.These deals are usually done in the last month of
the tax year; December in the US, March in the UK.
The guys here are gold enthusiasts. They all think the price may bounce by Dec. Hence, maneuvering now.
Who has any capital losses?
http://eideticresearch.com/uploads/2/8/3/4/2834543/gold-silver_apr_12_20...
Silver at $17 sounds nice. Wait this one out for a bit. If stocks start to break down we haven't seen the bottom yet.
If silver hits $17, its historic price, we have got a deadly serious problem in the world economy. That would be like Gabriel's horn going off.
@tyler
could you also add the dollar?
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1366056000000&chddm=311291&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:UDN&cmptdms=0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&&fct=big&ei=5yRsUbjYFIai0AGchwE
and for a good laugh here http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1366056000000&chddm=50830&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSEARCA:UDN;NYSEARCA:USO&cmptdms=0;0&q=NYSEARCA:SPY&&fct=big&ei=5yRsUbjYFIai0AGchwE
Look at copper prices. They are below all the support levels and I can't see a single time when copper dropped significantly and stocks didn't follow. We've all been waiting for the big one and it looks like it may be knocking on the door.
That USED to be true. That was before ZIRP and QEternity. Who the fuck knows what happens next?
All we do is guess because ths shit is unprecedented and I would not be surprised to see more DJIA and S and P record closes this week.
Even the greatest of magicians can only defy gravity for so long. All break before the laws of physics.
A guy on CNBC UK just noted the copper price. Said it's BULLISH!
Don't worry, soon all those empty Chinese cities will be filled with a "new" emerging middle-class that's just booming right now, then they'll have to build more empty cities. Cooper to the moon!
You hit the nail on the head - as my Mom used to say. Something is rotten in the State of Denmark.
If you want to see what´s behind this "sell off" then you should read this :
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2013/04/13/assault-on-gold-update-paul-craig-roberts/
@ Manolito:
I'll see your Paul Craig Roberts, and raise you Gary Savage!
http://bullmarketthinking.com/gold-trader-expect-margin-calls-monday-mor...
This really looks like some acting along these lines:
Fed: Oh my ! Look at this US recovery ! It is very nice, and we are serious, so we will stop QE if there is no krach by the end of the year
Banks: ok.
A few months later:
Banks: Look at this mess ! Recovery was stopped by decline in SP500 !
Fed: Right ! So since QE was achieving good results before the krach, let us do some more !
(and goes on and on as long as the audience is amused)
Where is that Krugman character?
Probably waiting for his Mom to finish on the computer.
he mows the lawn at the local synagogue for extra fiat with which he buys bitcoins on the D.L.
I'll play the part of PK
"I told you so"
only down $100 now...
this big gold price drop indicated that the deflation force is huge. the fed must print more. 85 billion/mo is not enough.
to stop the deflation force, fed might be willing to revalue the gold price higher for the better solution, instead to print money.
Crackin jokes today ay?
Would you revalue something you no longer own to the upside, or would you increase the amount of something you can hit out on a whim?
I think today would be a good day to go through the mental checklist of why you started stacking in the first place.