This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Californians: Prepare For A 50% Hike In Pension Costs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is no surprise that pension funds in the US are significantly underfunded (median 72% funded). California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALPERS), specifically, is about 26% short of meeting its long-term commitments. Like most major pension funds, it uses smoke-and-mirrors to avoid this yawning gap by smoothing over a long enough timeframe where 'hope' for growth in assets triumphs over the reality of liabilities (through a 'rolling' 15- or 30-year window - that therefore never comes due). However, under a new plan proposed by CALPERS' chief actuary, they will shorten the horizon from 15 to 5 years and aim for a specific date 30 years from now to be 100% funded (instead of a rolling hope-driven horizon). The impact of this, as Bloomberg reports, may mean California taxpayers municipal pension contributions will rise as much as 50%. "This is clearly the right thing to do," notes the fund's CEO, "as it will reduce the risk of the system," though we suspect the 'system' may just get a little upset at having to face this 50% 'tax-hike'.

Via Bloomberg,

California taxpayers may see the municipal pension contributions they fund for the California Public Employees’ Retirement System rise as much as 50 percent under a plan to fill $87 billion in unfunded obligations.

 

Alan Milligan, the fund’s chief actuary, recommends that the biggest U.S. pension stop spreading out losses and gains over 15 years and instead set rates based on how much is needed to reach 100 percent funding within 30 years

 

The Sacramento-based pension, known as Calpers, is about 26 percent short of meeting its long-term commitments. The state and cities contributed $7.8 billion in the last fiscal year, almost four times more than a decade earlier.

 

...

 

Under Milligan’s proposal, the fund would shrink its 15- year rolling period for asset smoothing to five years and amortize gains and losses over a fixed 30-year period rather than the current rolling 30-year period. A fixed period means that all obligations will be fully funded by a specific date.

 

If approved, the rates charged to governments would increase by as much as 50 percent.

 

...

 

“This will reduce the risk our system currently faces,” said the fund’s chief executive officer, Anne Stausboll. “This is clearly the right thing for us to do.”

 

...

 

The median funded status of state pensions, meaning how much money a system has in order to pay its obligations, fell to 72 percent in 2011 from 83 percent in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:28 | 3459598 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

That is bullish.

Edit:  Bullshit.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:29 | 3459607 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

All I can say is invest in U-Haul, Penske,Pod, or any other company that is moving people out of California. The exit rates are staggering. Clalifornia will be be turned over to Mexico at this point as it should... I live here, so wanna believe know it all bitchez feel free to junk me because you see otherwise. The only difference between me and you is I'm seeing it unfold everyday...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:33 | 3459614 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

can the mexs keep the hollywood jews? and from what  I have heard here on ZH everywhere the ex-Calis move those states get fucked up also-CO,WA,OR,etc.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:32 | 3459613 dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

The P in CalPERS stands for Ponzi. it sucks to be last into a ponzi. higher pay in, no pay out

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:47 | 3459639 Spectre
Spectre's picture

The majority of CA residents have voted in the politicians they wanted to vote for the outrageous pensions they may or may not get.  Like all Ponzis, it will crash, voters fault, clear and simple.

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:46 | 3459834 JR
JR's picture

Actually, they didn't. It was one single Federal judge and a Democrat governor, Gray Davis, who refused to appeal her decision that changed the voting demographics of California, forever.

It was a single Federal judge that stopped voter initiatives to rein in immigration, primarily from Mexico, just as Obama has stopped Arizona from staunching the flow of Mexicans across her borders.

In 1994, California voters voted 59 to 41 percent to approve Proposition 187, the “Save Our State” Initiatives that said California residents were not responsible for the schooling and health care of illegal aliens. It also stepped up labor law and border enforcement.

One Federal judge blocked its implementation on the basis of “a balance of hardship” and constitutionality.

Now, in California, 72 percent of students are of color per the Center for American Progress  -- and it is game over for taxpayers. Approximately 50% of the California budget is mandated for education, i.e., for the teachers union to teach primarily all Mexican students.

And, now, a Senate watchdog group has found at least eight California school districts that misappropriated millions intended to pay for meals for low-income students, the biggest culprit being the Los Angeles Unified School District. 

And the California Department of Education has ordered districts to repay more than $170 million in misused funds to their student meal programs… Who knows what the total taxpayer bill is for feeding free breakfast and lunch to the state’s burgeoning school population…

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:09 | 3459990 GCT
GCT's picture

Spot on JR. Californians were screwed by the judicial branch of CA and the Fed. 

My sister was a school teacher in CA and left because she could not teach basically.  They eliminated PE and alot of science in order to teach students English as a second language and Spanish.  If you disagree with the agenda your basically railroaded anyway. 

CA is the experiment and the road the USA is headed down.  People oftentimes point out your vote is basically worthless and CA is the outcome.  Voters vote, and the judicial branch does not care and over turns the vote with a stroke of a pen. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:55 | 3461594 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Yup.  Judges throw out anything the voters vote for.  Wehn the left or Dems get enough control - they rig the elections.  It happen in 2012 in FL, OH, PA, MI, VA and a few other states.  Late voting in the cities and massive fraud.  All backed by TV and Hollywood.  F TV and F Hollywood.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:50 | 3459642 elementary
elementary's picture

Give them all a 10,000% increase in benefits so the fucking system implodes next year and they all get NOTHING. FUCK California and Gerry Brownski. Comrade Gerry started this devolution during his first term as Gov., only fitting that he sinks with the ship.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:07 | 3459666 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 California has been destroyed by regulations and liberalism. There are still a few pockets of sanity.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:10 | 3459669 delivered
delivered's picture

Here's how it is going to play out. Jerry Brown will strenghten his control of the state politicians with super majorities across the board. The masses will continue to vote for JB and his gangs in Sacramento because of the free junk being handed out (federal and state levels). Can't stop the flow of free junk so we need to keep our elected officials in place to ensure my $60k annual income from free handouts is not jeopardized.

Why is this important, simple. The masses don't own homes but rather represent the tenant renters that will not be impacted by property taxes (yes, prop 13 in California) and this is where the fun begins. With all of the government agencies having to contribute more to cover the pensions, they will look to untapped revenue sources and target prop 13 (which caps property taxes based on home purchase price). The masses don't own homes, the wealthy own theirs outright and won't suffer nearly as much with a property tax increase. No, the middle class will be targetted again by altering the property tax structure to feed the government (the counties first which in turn will pass the added revenue to the state and the pension fund).

My guess is it will be on the ballot in November of 2014. Super majorities of Democrats in place - Check. The masses that aren't home owners that will vote for any tax increase to keep them fed - Check. The wealthy with their bought politicians and protection secure - Check. And just like that, the middle class will be handed the ticket with the end result being property taxes increasing and being fed right into the pension fund to overpay a bunch of worthless public/civil servants that suck the last bit of life and wealth from what's left in the state. A massive transfer of wealth from the many, invested in real estate for years if not decades, to the few with their only claim being I'm responsible for raising taxes, collecting them, or spending them all (and then some) to ensure my retirement.

Use to be in California that the spirit of the small business owner was rewarded for risk taking and creating jobs. Now I'm affraid to say the only game in town is to pony up with the politicians, pretend that you actually work, keep your union strong, and piggyback on the taxpayer to fund your retirement at the ripe old age of 55. I'm affraid they will stop at nothing to fund the gap with one of the biggest targets available being property taxes.

Of course if this happens, get ready for war as for true Californians, owning real estate and prop 13 will repesent the final straw that breaks the back of the camel. But it may be too late as what's left of the working middle class is now truly a minority that simple has no weight or representation in Sacramento.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:29 | 3459695 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

I hear you, this is scambled but it will make sense. When they go after prop 13, which they will, all hell will break loose. Forget about Hollywood, you will see the hillbillys and farmers in the streets. I hope it happens tommorow to show these bureaucratic bitchez they are clueless...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:11 | 3459747 elementary
elementary's picture

Not so sure all hell will break out by the sane who want to protect their families and their wealth. I predict another false flag, like so many that have ocurred of late, to bring things to a breaking point, so that the elites play us all like puppets. California was gone in the 90's. Lived here since early 60's. Like night and day. Used to be the Shangri La of U.S., now the porta pooty. People keep saying it's the fault of the electorate. The elections have been rigged big time since LBJ.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:08 | 3461691 Freddie
Freddie's picture

They are pushing amnesty today in the senate to make sure the American middle class is finished off.

People forget that unions/leftists/national socialist/communists killed tens of millions to get what they want.   They will do whatever it takes to take whatever you have.  If this means they have to kill you, imprison you or whatever - they will do it. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:11 | 3459745 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

The masses don't own homes, the wealthy own theirs outright and won't suffer nearly as much with a property tax increase.

While that may be true for the wealthy, many of the people who own their homes outright are seniors on fixed income who will lose their homes if property taxes go up.  This is what was happening before Prop 13 was passed; people who had played by the rules their entire lives, paid off their homes and figured their tax bill as part of their now minimal expenses had their houses stolen by the government.  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:40 | 3459779 delivered
delivered's picture

Correct and a point I forgot to mention. The old time home owners, many eldery as you point out, will be hit hard in this equation. I've lumped them in with what's left of the middle class as although their incomes may not qualify them for middle class status, their net worths would (via having large equity positions in their homes). Some have owned homes for 40 plus years and would be hammered by changes to prop 13. Just an ugly situation if this does come to pass.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:17 | 3461749 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Do you think they care?  They refer to these savers as angry old white men who will die off soon enough.  You underestimate how evil these people are.  Look at the poor people in Mexico - raped, beheaded, and on and on.  Whatever it takes for them to take your stuff - they WILL do it.   They are pushing amnesty right now in the Senate and gun control.  All backed by Hollywood and TV. F them!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:12 | 3459671 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Oh yes, after you bail out the banksters, insurers, and corporatocracy, you just HAVE to make the hapless citizen PAY MORE!

Fucking vampires! 

Will there be increased taxes on people who make over $1 million per year and offshore their assets?  NO!

Will there be cuts in spending on people who don't work, on illegal immigrants who leech from the system, on bridges to nowhere?  OF COURSE NOT! 

THIS IS THE KLEPTOLIGARCHY!  THEY STEAL ONLY 20-30 YEARS AFTER THE PROMISE!  OR, THEY LET THE BANKS STEAL HOMES IN THE PRESENT!

Rule-of-Law?  Social Contract?  Morals and Ethics?  WHAT THE FUCK ARE THOSE!?!?!?

If you make a promise, keep it.  If you can't keep the promise, don't make it.

That simple.

FUCKWADS.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:12 | 3459677 poydras
poydras's picture

It is amazing that Bernanke screws the non-pension savers and then these savers have to make the pensions whole.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:23 | 3459689 QE49er
QE49er's picture

The 80's was a great time to grow up here in Southern California, but after the utopia control freaks took full control it didn't take long for it to go straight into the crapper.  The small business climate is hanging by a thread, people are fed up, disgusted & angry.  The cost of living is through the roof.  The illegals are above the law.  The schools have turned into prison camps.  The roads here are a complete disaster, costing commuters hundreds more in auto repair.  The unbelievably generous financial distribution to the government employees all over the state is downright legalized theft.  The traffic is a disaster.  The retail stores compared to other similar chains out side the state don't even compare; people are nicer, prices are lower & everything is better quality.  The police state is out of control, police have traps everywhere just to empty your pockets, and at the same time they will beat people to death without remorse.  Violence has spread everywhere; Iraq vet killed homeless people walking distance from my house, Dorner had his shootout walking distance to where I camp, dude that went on the shotgun rampage killed someone walking distance from where I work and the democrat controlled state bureaucrats are dreaming ways to take my guns.  There is nothing real anymore over here, everyone has fake skills, fake smiles, fake assets, people are in denial.  No one wants to admit that the whole situation is dire and getting worse by the minute.  When the SHTF there will be stacks of dead bodies for sure.  I've mapped out an escape plan to get out of this crap hole, it will be next year but I am not sure if this illusion of false prosperity will make it that long for my safe passage.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:41 | 3459703 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Interesting that the Kalifornia voters have, in reality, elected those that will destroy their capacity to make a living, furthur accelerating the States destruction by lack of tax revenue. They're Brilliant!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 04:55 | 3459879 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Bullshit-ish!

Don't know much about Cali, but the widespread fakeness and bad roads, yes, that's a problem.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:02 | 3460084 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

Good luck to you 49er.

 

Get right with GOD the Father (if you havent already) he will never forsake you, he will be your shield and sword.

 

Need a great place to do daily Bible Study?

 

Try http://www.shepherdschapel.com/broadband.htm

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 13:45 | 3461973 Freddie
Freddie's picture

In the Senate - Rubio and the Democrats plus other RINOs are pushing for amnesty and gun control.  So this will nationalize Califronia to all 57 (sic) states.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:38 | 3459701 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

This is the same brilliant CalPers that found it necessary to weigh in on gun control by divesting from all gun manufacturers after Newtown.....as guns were flying off the shelves.  

I wonder how many of these "working people" voted for Prop 30 to raise taxes on the so-called rich. 

How's that for a karma rebate?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:49 | 3459711 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I got no game. Cali is F**Ked and I know it.  Pink Floyd - Comfortably Numb (Live 8) - YouTube

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:10 | 3459807 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDgb5vVHuA

Led Zep - Goin to California

You could not ask for a more beautiful place to live.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:03 | 3459735 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

I'd say after reading most of the posts Calif. has just as many supporters as Boston bomber.

 

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:32 | 3459775 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

California is TBTF. The other 49 will do the bending over on this one.

Yeah, even bigger than BAC!  Hear tell 14% of national gdp. Sumpn' like the 8th biggest economy in the world, if it was a nation.

Feinstein and Boxer are very good at "re-allocation" of resources. (open theft)

Send money, Moonbeam needs Latte'

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 14:49 | 3462491 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Marco Rubio wants to give illegals Marco phones olike Obama and Fidel in the amnesty bill. F Him.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:42 | 3459781 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

If I told you that there were 13 full-time lifeguards making over $120,000 a year in Newport Beach, CA, what would you say? Well, while you contemplate that, let’s review what the union said.

“We have negotiated very fair and very reasonable salaries in conjunction with comparable positions and other cities up and down the coast,” Brent Jacobsen, president of the Lifeguard Management Association, told the Orange County Register. “Lifeguard salaries here are well within the norm of other city employees.”

The details of those “very fair and very reasonable salaries” are given by the group Americans for Prosperity, which exposed the pay in a video last week:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2011/05/11/union-defends-13-calif-lifegu...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:55 | 3459840 JR
JR's picture

Good grief! “More than half the lifeguards collected more than $150,000 for 2010 with the two highest-paid collecting $211,451 and $203,481 in total compensation respectively….

“Such fiscal practices are not uncommon in California. As Business Insider pointed out last year (2010), there are 16 city managers earning over $300,000.”

As someone on ZH said: This sucker’s comin’ down.

When the money’s all gone, you know what? It’s all gone.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:33 | 3459961 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Lifegaurds should make a ton of money for hanging on the beach, remaining keenly observant for the imperiled whilst not being distracted watching ass go by. 

Those guys aren't overpaid. You see what David Hasslehoff & Pamela Lee made pretending to be one?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:57 | 3459975 Tree of Liberty
Tree of Liberty's picture

Well swimming in FUKU -shima radiated water will give them a tan (sunburn) they did not anticipate. See article on sea lions with sunburn. http://www.dailypaul.com/281956/dead-sea-lions-washing-on-shore-in-calif...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 14:54 | 3462524 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Hopefully that Iodine 131, cesiun, U235 and MOX gets up the lifeguards pee pee and arsehole glands.  The criminals are robbing taxpayers like Marco Rubio the RINO and his Marco Phones like Obama Phones.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=radioactive-iodine-from...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:43 | 3459783 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

How does one SHORT california?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:48 | 3459786 Strom
Strom's picture

CalPERS doesn't need to increase its contributions. CalPERS needs to learn how to invest. They have made some of the most idiotic moves over the last 5-10 years, and their investments don't seem to be getting any better. 

 

Maybe they are right to move a significant portion of their allocation to index funds - at least they won't have to make any investment decisions...returns should improve significantly from their historical performance.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:06 | 3459805 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Your comment lacks one key axiom. ZIRP  ( Yield doesn't exist)

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:46 | 3459827 Strom
Strom's picture

They don't just invest in stocks and bonds...some of the asset management decisions they've made over the last few years on some of their alternative investments have been atrocious.

 

Edit: Plus, I'm not even talking about the last 2-3 years. I'm talking about things like making huge real estate investments in 2006-2007...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 05:10 | 3459895 Strom
Strom's picture

Maybe the former CEO of CalPERS (who is now indicted on federal conspiracy charges for fraud) is the one junking me?

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/18/us-calpers-indictment-idUSBRE92H0YG20130318

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:54 | 3459844 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

If they are moving a large portion of their holdings to index funds right now, they could be buying at the top.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 04:46 | 3459869 Strom
Strom's picture

Could be...although they are not increasing their allocation to equities - just considering moving from active management to passive index funds on their equity investments.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/03/21/nations-largest-pension-considers-more-indexing/

 

http://dealbreaker.com/2013/03/dont-do-it-calpers/

 

Also, not sure why people are down-arrowing me on the above comments - CalPERS themselves have said they screwed up. They had large losses in fiscal 2008 and 2009 (lost 25% that year!), and even in 2012 earned just 0.1%. The fact is that with the losses they experienced in 2008/2009, they have to have OUTSIZED gains the rest of the time to make their target of mid-7%. That, or they have to either cut their target and drop expected pensions or they have to increase contributions. They are increasing contributions. This isn't the first time, and it won't be the last. Don't forget, they were reducing contribution rates in 2005-2006 when they moved from a 3 year rate stabilization program to a 15 year rate stabilization program (which is what they're now changing back to 5 years)...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:32 | 3460162 Max Cynical
Max Cynical's picture

Maybe CalPers should invest their holdings California Bonds...

http://buycaliforniabonds.com/opportunities.asp

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 04:51 | 3459877 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

How do they tax them? Higher income tax? Property tax? Sales tax? or what? to pay for those pension contribution hikes.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 05:03 | 3459890 Strom
Strom's picture

Cities and counties are required to pay the increases. Depending on the contracts they have with their employees, it is likely that a significant portion is removed from the paychecks of the employees. They may have to raise revenues in other ways (such as property or sales taxes) if the employee contracts do not allow them to raise the employee contributions sufficiently. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 05:35 | 3459911 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

The Association of European Carmakers reported that last month:

Italy: -4.9% year-on-year

Spain: -13.9% year-on-year

France: -16.2% year-on-year

Germany: -17.1% year-on-year

VW Group: -9%

Peugeot/Citreon: -16%

Renault: -9.6%

GM Group: -12.6%

Ford: -15.8%

Fiat Group: -0.8%

Toyota: -16.3%

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 05:57 | 3459927 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Outlaw public unions now!  The masses are being forced to pay for a small majority of the upper crust of the working slaves.  Pay your own fucking retirement.  Nothing worse than going to the courthouse and handing them a $5k real estate tax check and seeing 50 gals with $100 sweaters and $500 daisy duke boots strolling around with perfect fingernails obviously from all the tedious work. Fuck the gov't.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:04 | 3459935 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Oh and btw this is a true story:  Ever hear the joke how many guys does it take to change a lightbulb in one form or another?

Last summer while walking my bloodhound in the public park I seen one public worker on top a 5' ladder, one holding the ladder, and another heading their way with a new lightbulb. No kidding.

In this same park a couple weeks later I seen 3 county trucks in the middle of the park with a total of 7 guys.  1 guy had a tree limb saw.  He was cutting off small limbs, say 1-2" at the rate of maybe 1 every 15 minutes or so.  5 of the guys took turns picking up the limb and putting it in one of the trucks. The 7th guy was the supervisor and he sat in the truck not to mention he was the only one with a hardhat on and he had his own truck.

The best part of the story is when I walked by these 7 hard working guys(lol) one of them made the comment outloud "here we are working and this guys out walking his dog on a weekday".  I opted not to say anything because I knew it would ended badly and I don't like jail.  7 against 1 isn't too good but I know at least 2 of them wouldn't be too well off after the incident.

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 15:04 | 3462576 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Sick.  They probably would have called a cop and he would have shot your dog.  Cops love shooting dogs.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:08 | 3459937 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

BTW if pensions are in this much trouble with a booming stock market, what's going to be the tax rate after the next crash? 300%?  Give us fucking everything?

I've been saying for somewhile that public unions will be the last of us to go.  They are the only ones that can control their destiny-for the time being-because they have the unique ability to just sell your ass down the road if you don't pay.  Only when they have everyone else in tent city looking like an ethiopian will they fold.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:00 | 3459982 j0nx
j0nx's picture

But hey, those pensions are constitutionally protected!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:47 | 3460052 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

So is the right to bear arms but go tell that to Mr O.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:09 | 3459989 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Just do what Chris Christie did in New Jersey and pass a state law to cancel all future COLA adjustments for existing and future pensioner benefits. That’ll shore up the numbers right quick. Never mind that it violates contract law. No one has a case based on that anymore, considering what the banks have already gotten away with. Of course, New Jersey is the perfect venue for this sort of thing where the phrase “You got a problem with that?” is considered to be a good argument by the defense.  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:12 | 3459994 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Put together a spreadsheet model of a pension.  Use ages 25 to 65 to fund retirement at 65.  Use the typical pension asset return of 8%.  Yes, 8%.  Then drop it to 1%.  The funding scheme collapses radically.  Now change some other variables to try and fix it: contribution levels, benefit levels and age of retirement.  What you find is that the drop in asset return blows the other variables away.

And this is where ZIRP will hit a wall that will have real consequences.  Every defined pension scheme in this country, government workers, is fucked.  Beyond repair.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:16 | 3459996 Northeaster
Northeaster's picture

Meanwhile, here in Boston, Beacon Hill just rammed through a $500 million dollar Bill OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND to bailout our transit system. Unfortunately a bomb went off at the Boston Marathon, so all reporting of this is now non-existent.

Like California, our pension system is grossly underfunded, the health insurance funding is 2%, not including short falls in "Other Post Employment Benefits", which the GASB starts reporting on this year and next.

Nothing to see here...

http://bh.heraldinteractive.com/projects/your_tax_dollars.bg?tmpl=generi...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:54 | 3460539 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Those taxes are about bailing out government pensions and nothing else.  Those "transportation" projects will never be started.  That money will go straight to retired  government union workers.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:31 | 3460020 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

A few points:

1. If funds on average are 72% funded how many are under 72%

2. If Calpers which is 74% funded needs 30 years to fix the mess and is relying on the taxpayer to fix it, then what chance  or how many years do any of the other lesser funded schemes need to cover the shortfall?

3. If Calpers is short by 26% and needs 30 years, does this mean the Federal Government needs maybe 60 years or more to rein in a budget  that is only 66% funded?

They are either dreaming or hallucinating if they think the problem can be fixed. People will just get a lot less and there are no two ways about it. Cyprus gets its bank accounts wacked and Americans will get their pensions wacked as well.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:49 | 3460035 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Damn, this has been one of the best discussions ever .... should be required reading in California schools .... get it .... they can't read !  Maybe a rap video .... showing Sacramento legislators .... panning for gold in the American river .... their golden years .... get it ? My retirement allowance to myself .... one ounce of silver a week .... just walking around money ! 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:05 | 3460091 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I didn't know throwing more money at something reduced my risk. But then again, I play craps so what do I know.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:24 | 3460140 Toosday
Toosday's picture

I will applaud them for at least admitting how much these benefits cost.  Most govts will not even do that.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:38 | 3460157 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Government compensation and entitlements are better guarded secrets .... than nuclear and rocket science secrets .... North Koreans knows more about our military .... than we know about our burocrats bloated, greedy compensation !    Now we know how that lesbobitch and her lesbodog in Costa Rica built a tree house with mahogany floors out of an old Boeing 707 .... Calpers ! Maybe Calpers fund retirees .... should be required to live in the urban jungles they created .... not Costa Rica !

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:44 | 3460192 buffettwanab
buffettwanab's picture

They were telling us everything is fine all these years so wtf....

 

wtfwtfwtfwtfwtfwtfwtf..............WTFWTFWTFWTF......8.

 

So pathetic its funny. My wife asked me why am I laughing, I tell

her its the only thing left to do.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:45 | 3460193 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

It's interesting house more "government confiscation of cash" from citizens somehow translates to inflation/hyper-inflation.

 

This is deflationary folks.  Fewer spenders and fewer being spent.

 

And deflation is devastating.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:29 | 3460404 d edwards
d edwards's picture

How about a 25% reduction in over-generous benefits for gov't employees

and 25% increase in taxes so taxpayers don't get the whole shaft?

We know CA residents love taxes-they just voted to increase them, but geez give em a break.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:54 | 3460217 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Of course! How else are 200k/yr lifeguards gonna to retire.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:01 | 3460567 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

Disability check

 

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 08:57 | 3460243 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

ponzi merry go round spinning faster and faster

followed by a dream shattering ka-boom

when governments can't print IOU's any longer they print UOus instead

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:13 | 3460334 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

You guys can laugh all you want.  When the Dow reaches 88,000 the pension will be fully funded.

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:19 | 3460351 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

CA needs a 12.0 earthquake and to fall into the ocean.  Get it over with already.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:36 | 3460444 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I live in Illinois...I am very frightened by this story.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:42 | 3460471 warezdog
warezdog's picture

I ask myself when the muppets paying in now will realize that they'll never see the money the contribute, until then the ponzi will bump along until it crumbles.

 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:06 | 3460590 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Sad. Cali has the best climate in the country but has the worst leadership.....(maybe except for Illinois, that is).

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:39 | 3460728 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Solution ????? Raise the contribution rates (taxes) for pensions ?????

And shall we then suppose Social security funds will no longer be diverted into the general fund to pay for the on-going expenses of war making, TBTF bailouts, and maintaining the health fraud system?

And shall we then suppose state retirement funds will no longer be subjected to the profit designs of the TBTF financial and the health management cartel? Will the investment strategies of local and state politicians no longer be written and underwritten by the real estate industry and corporate giants?

No more bribes, no more kickbacks, no more corruption?

No more an economic system rewarding privatized greed above the common good?

Next time will be different?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 10:58 | 3460813 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I have to laugh at the nimrods who point at SS and shout "Ponzi".  These government pensions are a larger problem, are much tougher to solve and this is where you'll get whacked with taxes.

SS provides a baseline (i.e. cat food existence) to everyone.  These government pensions are pretty posh and for an exclusive audience.

Wake the fuck up.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:13 | 3460898 Monedas
Monedas's picture

These Burofarts have been living the Life o' Riley .... we Goldbugs dream about !

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:14 | 3460899 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 The truly outrageous pensions are given to the upper echelon, not the pensions of the clerks and garbage collectors.

And it is the upper echelon of administrators and enforcers of the established order, civilian, military, and police who are rewarded with outrageous salaries, pensions, and often private sector ("consulting" and other "revolving door") employment as well.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:32 | 3460930 Monedas
Monedas's picture

O contraire, librarians at $70K+ retirement .... and these are the very people who have always wanted to punish the rich and the productive .... they have become what they wagged their fingers at .... by punishing .... not producing !   What did they do to in the Warsaw Ghetto when people stole the children's food .... well, people probably weren't that vile .... these smug, Democrat burofucks have gone way too far .... and I have an itchy pitch fork ?

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 16:04 | 3462920 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 Your argument is based on made-up statistics.

No typical library worker gets a 70k annual salary, let alone pension.

The corruption and malfeasance is certainly there in the higher-up positions. It is not just their pensions, but the revolving door private "consultant" jobs, the insider info, and bribes.

The average state worker does not partake of that, with the possible exception of some police and prison guards, who are rewarded for protecting the esatblished order.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:15 | 3460919 moneybots
moneybots's picture

“This will reduce the risk our system currently faces,” said the fund’s chief executive officer, Anne Stausboll. “This is clearly the right thing for us to do.”

Like hell it is.

 

Philadelphia is in closed door talks with Wall Street, to discuss asset sales.  Eventually you can't get blood out of a turnip.  The same holds true for California tax payers.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:16 | 3460920 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

After how many years does someone become eligible for pension?  Is the plan in place feasible or realistic.  Its always talk, talk, talk, about taxes to shore things up.  The discussion should always be about the plan and whether its realistic.  

 

Change the pension plan.  Why are government workers elevated above the needs of the broader population?  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 11:24 | 3460981 Monedas
Monedas's picture

It is greedy, crimminal embezzlement of public funds .... stop the pensions .... put them in jail !  They know they're getting away with murder .... they just keep it as quiet as they can !

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:35 | 3461454 Spore
Spore's picture

Sorry Im not getting it. Does this mean that me as a Ca taxpayer is going to pay for calpers to become solvent? If so f*ck calpers! Or does it mean calpers employees are going to pay more? If so, GOOD!

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 12:51 | 3461569 Victor Berry
Victor Berry's picture

The biggest mistake pension fund managers made was to trust Wall Street with their money. Capitalism is a big fail! Or rather corrupt/criminal capitalism is a big fail!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!