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Dylan Grice: "The Gold Market Is Healthier Now"

Tyler Durden's picture


"Gold has become much more affordable in recent days as the price has collapsed. Such a collapse is unpleasant, but not cause for concern," advises Dylan Grice. "Gold remains durable," as a source of protection from loss of confidence in the system, and, he adds "a correction was overdue. Now, the gold market has become healthier." Critically, Grice warns during this interview with Finanz und Wirtschaft, "gold will not protect against a crash in the financial markets, it showed 2008," since if many investors simultaneously urgently need cash, they sell everything they have, including gold. However, Europe is a time-bomb, China's credit bubble is ow where the US was before the financial crisis, and while inflation may not be an imminent threat (and likely shuffled more gold holders out leaving "a more stable investor base,") Grice concludes, "Gold endures. If confidence in the currency is lost, or in the bond market; Gold is a safe haven." There are good reasons to own gold. And to buy gold, there is now a reason more than a week ago: It's 30% cheaper.

Via Finans und Wirtschaft

Why the gold price has suddenly dropped so quickly?
There are many opinions, ranging from conspiracy to cyclical or chart-based technical reasons. I have no idea. And I know no one who really knows. Although many people believe, to know the reason, but that's not the same.

Do you have at least a guess?
We still do not know what caused the stock market crash in 1987, and we'll probably never find out. The same applies to the slump in the gold market in recent days. To know the cause, would be nice, but is not so important.

What does the falling gold price?
Each boom has  large corrections, and these are often violent. In the gold market, there was a break in the mid-seventies, the price fell more than 40%. This was painful, and many people wrote back then: for gold - it felt like the end of the bull market; not true. This was a healthy correction. 1987 shares fell 25% in one day, that did not mean the end of the bull market. 1994 broke the bond market. In 1997, the Asian markets, but in both cases continued to rise.

Can the translate that directly to the gold market?
The collapse does not necessarily mean that the gold bull market is over. They could indeed be over, but I think not. And in view of the great whole, such a collapse is not important, even if it is violent and unpleasant course. There are good reasons to own gold. And to buy gold, there is now a reason more than a week ago: It's 30% cheaper.

So is this a buying opportunity, or should we come to doubt the bull market?
I have no idea if the gold price rises or falls in the coming months. But gold endures. The market strategist Marc Faber argues, the share price of Apple had fallen much more than gold. But what will happen with Apple in ten or a hundred years? That nobody knows, and this applies to all companies and for most currencies. All we know is: A gold bullion a hundred years ago is the same as a gold bullion now. In Roman times, they said "let himself pay one ounce of gold a decent toga and a meal," that is still true today.

The price of gold fluctuates but violently.
Yeah, we just saw a spectacular fluctuation. But owning gold brings with it durability. This makes gold as an investment is very attractive.

Discontinuity does not fit into a durable investment.
Gold is up for twelve years in a straight line, which is extremely unusual. Since it takes a downsizing, a certain liquidation. This is not unnatural. While this largest price drop in the past thirty years is unusual, on the other hand, these unusual incidents occur quite often in financial markets. A correction was overdue. Now, the gold market has become healthier.

Gold will now be seen as less?
The mood in the financial markets has changed. Investors have become more confident that the worst is over and everything will be all right: Europe has solved its problems in principle, that the U.S. is on track, and China beat well. I had predicted that China will have a difficult year 2012, but it has not materialized. All this ensures optimism. Those who had bought gold for fear of imminent higher inflation, perhaps now sees no more danger of inflation and thus an end to the gold price increases - why should he keep gold?

Is inflation coming?
I was never bullish for gold, because I assumed higher inflation is imminent. Inflation is slow and is a long-term problem. You will not see it suddenly - such fears I've never understood. But those who acquired gold for the wrong reasons, it may now be sold. Those who maintain it now belongs to a more stable investor base.

The market sentiment has not brightened rightly
Look around: States and financial systems are deeply in debt, interest rates can not fall further, real interest rates are negative, we live in a world of financial repression. The best possible outcome would be a gentle rise in interest rates in the coming years. This would be accompanied by negative real interest rates, because that is the only way for governments to gradually reduce their debt burden. In this scenario, long-term interest rates remain extremely low and therefore overvalued stocks and bonds. That's not a bad environment for gold.

What are worse scenarios?
The danger is that the central banks lose control of inflation and interest rates. This is a deadly combination for the bond market, and also for stocks that showed up in the seventies. There are also other dangers: Europe is a time bomb. The euro was supposed to bring peace and prosperity and has instead caused a split. China deregulated the financial system, and the debts have grown significantly. The country is now where were the U.S. was before the financial crisis. This is a dangerous game. On credit expansion sooner or later followed by a reduction in debt. The consequences of this are evident in the U.S., Spain, Ireland, in the euro zone - also politically and socially. That will not be any different in China.

Gold rose in parallel with the expansion of central bank balance sheets. This is no longer?
I am very careful of such correlations. As I learned as a student with extensive econometrics, you can in fact establish a correlation between rainfall in Scotland and the money supply in the UK. Correlations do not mean much, even if the relationship between central bank balance sheet, fear of inflation and the gold price is reasonable. The fear may subside, then breaks up the correlation.

Should central banks in emerging markets buy more gold?
I do not know. If I were central banker, I would certainly do that.

Gold is not a safe haven anymore?
Gold will not protect against a crash in the financial markets, it showed that in 2008. If many investors simultaneously urgently need cash, they sell everything they have, including gold.  If confidence in the currency is lost, or in the bond market, then gold is a safe haven. This happened to some extent in the seventies. Holding gold before the last crash was the right choice and it is now more than ever. I suppose I do not know how to evaluate permanence, but it is worth a lot to me.


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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:32 | 3458870 badandrew
badandrew's picture

Fuck gold, buy lead.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:34 | 3458883 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Lead is fungible.   ;-)  ;-)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:45 | 3458913 Croesus
Croesus's picture

You can't eat lead.

Well, you can, but it's not good for you.



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:50 | 3458932 Manthong
Manthong's picture


.. maybe a lead colonic?



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:04 | 3458985 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Brass and Lead, Gold and Silver..Speak of the Destruction!...I'm in a time zone.....


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:09 | 3459018 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Don't forget your gunpowder if you're buying lead.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:57 | 3459137 fourchan
fourchan's picture

i still dont know who i thank for putting gold on sale. and the stack grows higher.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:22 | 3459218 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I hope to add to my stack tomorrow as well.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:13 | 3459367 Scarlett
Scarlett's picture

got 9 yellow presents for myself today

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:27 | 3459563 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Did you pay for it, with bitcoins?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:03 | 3459150 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

'"gold will not protect against a crash in the financial markets, it showed 2008," since if many investors simultaneously urgently need cash, they sell everything they have, including gold.'

Hey Dylan, given your statement above can you explain the 400 tonnes of FUTURES sales that drove gold down through support at $1540. That's not a physical gold sale to raise cash, that is a speculative short sale.

Either that or shut the fuck up, investors don't take on massive short positions because they're skint. It was a well timed and deliberate take down through long term support, pure and simple.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:01 | 3458993 ACP
ACP's picture

You can sell it to China, who will make toys out of it and them back here.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:54 | 3459133 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

you only eat lead once


Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:06 | 3459544 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

"You can't eat lead. Well, you can, but it's not good for you"

Specially at 3200 ft ps.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:35 | 3458884 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Crashes ain't always healthy boys. My sex life crashed 9 years ago and I still have no "up"trend in my charts.......

Disclosure: 19 years, don't buy.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:41 | 3458905 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

maybe you should sell?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:43 | 3458915 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Fuck, I just put in a bid!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:49 | 3458942 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Dude, if you can cut the check to make me whole, she's yours..............that's gonna be one costly purchase though......

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:55 | 3458965 Major Major Major
Major Major Major's picture

Nobody is looking to pay for your sunk cost. If you are truly looking to exit your losing position, make a rosy forecast and fuck with the discount rate. You never know, there is a sucker born every day.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:08 | 3459015 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Let's not forget 19 years of depreciation.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:15 | 3459031 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Yep, that vehicle has been "ridden hard" and put up "wet".  Now, in order to avoid that financial hit, I do a Paulson/Geithner/Bernanke.  Pretend everything is ok while screwing on the side.......

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:26 | 3459064 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Hopefully she won't find out and "Bobbitt" you in the middle of the night.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:43 | 3459102 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Is it safe to assume that your avatar isn't the most recent pic of Mrs. Hedgie (No offense to Mrs. Hedgie, of course)?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:44 | 3459266 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Good assumption.  Otherwise, you'd never see me posting here.........would be too busy eating Skittles.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:06 | 3459010 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

According to the FED, non-productive assets may be leased.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:29 | 3459075 therover
therover's picture

Sometimes it costs too much to sell. Might as well leverage up and play the deriviatives market. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:40 | 3459098 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

hedge... try drugmeds..Indian site... you can get generic Viagra for under $1.00.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:47 | 3458910 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Ihedgemyhedges:

Why buy the cow, when you can get the milk for free?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:52 | 3458949 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Where the hell were you 19 years ago???????? Besides, I "buy my milk" elsewhere now.........

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:01 | 3458994 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:38 | 3459090 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Buy gold and silver, then buy lead to protect it.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:03 | 3459534 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Watching the gymnastics involved in defending a Gold decline is really illuminating. You'd think for a second it was something else. Every market goes through bull and bear phases, why lose the "plot" because it gets marked down in paper tokens?

Its the same reason why people don't panic over Bitcoin - there's more to it than a bunch of trolls here yelling "SELL".

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:30 | 3459824 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

I'm with you on the gold part, but I panicked over Bitcoin and I didn't even own any.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 09:07 | 3460305 tango
tango's picture

In fact, going to the store today for some gold.   Great price drop and buying opportunity.   I tried to tell my boys that having lots of savings meant that in hard times, products and services can be cheaply acquired.  In 2008, we bought condos and land from folks who "HAD" to sell.  Best investment ever except maybe this.  

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:32 | 3458876 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Healthier"?  As in short supply of bullion?  Same as with G+A:  in short supply.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:52 | 3458959 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

My guy today had both, I had to pay up for it though. $29 for ASE. They sure are pretty though.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:31 | 3459958 new game
new game's picture

26.65ea/533 for tube this morn at B.D.(Austin TX) 14 percent prem. plus shipping.  +- as price changes slightly 2012 AE's

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:44 | 3458882 kill switch
kill switch's picture


Gold is the only thing,,,,,,And will never be abandoned

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:05 | 3459007 kill switch
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:17 | 3459020 kill switch
kill switch's picture


All for gold

Would these guys fight fot FRN's

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:37 | 3458887 Hopium Dealer
Hopium Dealer's picture

R.I.P. paper gold and paper silver

Hello physical shortage.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:46 | 3458930 RobD
RobD's picture

I stopped by my local coin shop today. They had no silver bars other then some custom bars they had made that the try to sell at outragious premiums. They only had 3 1oz gold bars.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:36 | 3458892 1971
1971's picture

Tyler, if nothing funny happens on Friday can u show a video of that dude with the bat breaking shit while ranting about the economy.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:22 | 3459038 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

You mean Kevin "walstreetpro2" Rowland.  Here is Drutter's excellent compilation video "Best of walstreetpro2 (greatest fucking hits) number 1 of 3 (watch all 3):

BTW I really miss Kevin's insights into the Grand Ponzi.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:41 | 3459257 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

That was hilarious! Was his Mom pissed when she got home?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:02 | 3459323 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

No Mom, just a wife and kids.  You have to watch the other two "greatest fucking hits", they are even better.  The wife made him move his commentaries out to the shed where things made in China went to die.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:07 | 3459345 Intoxicologist
Intoxicologist's picture

LMAO!  Reminds me of that time I tried to quit smoking.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:39 | 3458896 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Gold On the Ceiling" by The Black Keys:

I ain't blind, just a matter of time before you steal it...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:40 | 3458902 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Let's keep ignoring the elephants in the room. Most gold is owned in the paper form. So it is not healthier now. It is sick. Until people understand the difference this bullshit continues and people like Grice will continue to miss the main point. If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

In the meantime interest rates will stay low until people forget they ever used to earn interest and ratings agencies will continue to be neutered and inflation will be falsely measured.  There will be no economic recovery and we will live in this Orwellian nightmare until something gives.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:45 | 3458928 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

As part of my ongoing bank jog, I closed a savings account this morning and gave "pathetically low interest rates" as the reason I was doing it. The bank lady just kind of smiled at me sympathetically, like I wasn't the first person who'd said that.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:57 | 3458980 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

McMolotov, you need to switch to one of those "High Yield" savings account they you can reap a whopping 0.02% interest.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:18 | 3459040 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think we all need some perspective

"In a report published Monday, Goldman Sachs reiterated its Sell rating on H.J. Heinz Company (NYSE: HNZ[FREE Stock Trend Analysis]), but slightly lowered its price target from $54.00 to $53.00.

Goldman Sachs noted, “We remain Sell-rated on HNZ and lower our 12-month price target to $53 from $54 given lower estimates following the devaluation of the Venezuelan currency. We use a blended P/E & EV/EBITDA methodology based on 5-year average 15X P/E and 10X EV/EBITDA to arrive at our target price.


"Goldman Sachs Group Inc is cooperating with a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission probe into insider options trading in H.J. Heinz Co before the food company announced it was being acquired, Goldman said on Friday."


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:57 | 3459148 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I just took a Goldman....  Could not flush fast enough.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:49 | 3459121 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Yeah, I had a bank functionary try to interest me in one of their savings accounts that "paid a higher interest rate"...

I just looked at her with my best, "You've gotta be shittin' me!" look. She changed the subject.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:10 | 3459354 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

They are forced to ask you in a pathetic attempt to "cross sell" every customer.  I won't bank at a TBTF/TBTJ bank, I keep a couple months of expenses in a local bank which doesn't bother asking me any stupid questions (plus there are never long lines).  

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 20:03 | 3464123 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Do some research on "Tax Lien Certificates"

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:54 | 3458963 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Grice says "no one knows" why gold and silver were smashed. Haha...

Hard to take these types seriously anymore. Its pathetic.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:57 | 3458981 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

+1 Fonz

 Yeah, gold is a helluva lot helthier now that we know bullion banks and their minions can throw 1000 tons of paper gold at the price to force it down. I'm feeling alot healthier.

and yet we hear of shortages, LBMA and CME defaults and the paper pushers are still firmly in control with their futures, options and criminal ETF's. Why don't Paulson and Einhorn demand phyzz in exchange for their GLD share just to see if they even have any phyzz?

Fuck you Grice

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:55 | 3459135 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Who the fuck is this guy ??? That was a real informative interview.

Question: So what to you think will happen with the price of gold?

Grice: Well, it might go up, then again it might go down.

Grice missed his calling in life, he should have been a local weather forecaster. Shit, he could even be the next Willard Fucking Scott I'll tell ya.

To echo the eloquent, yet beautifully articulate statement from AllWorkedUp,


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:09 | 3459178 BeanusCountus
BeanusCountus's picture

Not sure if I hit the up arrow or down, but you have summarized the big picture as well as anyone. Well done.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:42 | 3459963 new game
new game's picture

new version of econ hunger games.

sacrificed / gold/silver complex to support your faith and full backing of FRN's backed by the full faith in the USSA complex backed by the branch of military which will be on demand to protect against any breach of confindence withstanding the pledge to all reported agencies of government which will enforce controls in your best and secure future.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:41 | 3458904 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

A better correction than the cotton candy equity markets.

More true, more tangible, more real, not necessarily less manipulated.

Those central bankers are DESPERATE to suppress alternatives to their fiat toilet paper.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:44 | 3458916 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Mrs. Funt found a '41 quarter in her change today. A good omen.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:51 | 3458950 RobD
RobD's picture

My daughter found two war nickels in her piggy bank last week.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:55 | 3458976 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

That's weird. I found two war piggies in a bank last week when I was getting rolls of nickels, like Kyle Bass suggested.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:23 | 3459594 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I don't know why everyone wants american nickels....
They are not made of nickel.
Mainly copper,and a little nickel but not much.
Have been for a long time.

Older canadian ones where up to like 1982 or so only .
Then made of crap too...mainly steel now.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:36 | 3459828 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

shit, there goes my retirement.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:17 | 3460000 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

75/25 Cu/Ni is better than Zn, Fe, Al, etc.
The nickel has the greatest metal value per face value of circulating American coins presently being minted.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:44 | 3458919 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture


Talking heads saying "we need bodies" and giving illegal immigrants amnesty is the "path to prosperity".

More fucking reasons for me to file for S.S. Disability and milk the fucking system, not work, take what I can get.

Sell me out for fucking illegal immigrants and visa holders and you can stretch your back to suck your own cock you money-grubbing dumbfucks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:51 | 3458921 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We need some more gold bears for this market to turn bullish. The trees need to be shaken some more and the weak players driven out.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:04 | 3459000 fonzannoon
Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:50 | 3459969 new game
new game's picture

at 800 and 50:1 that put silver at 16.

20:1 = 40????

1000,   20


whatever happen to the long standing ratio?

thinking silver more attractive, but small add at 23.10, but 95% powder dry as a bone meal dust in the desert...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:13 | 3459026 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

That's right stackers talk it up if it won't go up on it's own.



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:49 | 3458922 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

And to buy gold, there is now a reason more than a week ago: It's 30% cheaper.

US stock market would be a lot healthier if it were 30% lower.  So would the bond market.  Please do not state the obvious.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:54 | 3458969 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Housing market would also be alot healthier, JO, if it were 30% cheaper then now....more in line with real wages.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:13 | 3459561 dr.charlemagne
dr.charlemagne's picture

The world financial system would be a lot healthier if gold was 330% higher and housing, stocks, and treasuries were 30% lower........thats the world without the fed

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:49 | 3458923 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture



"Investigators combing through the aftermath of the deadly Boston Marathon terrorist attack have recovered a circuit board in the area of one of the two blasts that they believe was used to detonate the bombs, according to an official briefed on the investigation."

Do they go with the middle eastern death to america guy or the NRA good old boy with 22 AR 15's and a Ron Paul tatoo on his ass and 3 gold bars down his pants?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:50 | 3458947 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Obummer wants to disarm America ,so as a bitter clinger I'm going with B.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:52 | 3458954 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The problem I have with B is it laves the whole rollover 1981 plot out in the cold and therefore we are back to square one with the gold selloff. That being said I am inclined to agree with you.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:49 | 3458948 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Current hysteria is to disarm every Patriot and let the "government" protect us from ourselves.

And then, when we are "protected" we are unable to defend our own freedoms and must bow down to the proletariat.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:43 | 3459104 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Pretty much.

Its incredible that the statist meme they trot out could be even taken at face value...they protected no one in

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:05 | 3459166 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

My money is still on Lance Armstrong .  That SOB is boiling over because he can't make his 200 million and also run the Boston.  Plus that would explain why Lance waited till the leaders finished when the bomb went off.  He wants to race against those guys in the future.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:48 | 3458936 blindman
blindman's picture

buy a mcnugget , get a free gold oz. !
coming to a golden arch near u !

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:52 | 3458960 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Ain't nobody gettin' free gold from me. I will, however, accept gold as payment for incendiary devices.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:52 | 3458953 monopoly
monopoly's picture

The "good old boy" theory. Don't you think if it were so called "real terrorists" they would have detonated at the beginning of the race for maximum effect? As sad as this is you cannot stop deranged people from doing anything, especially if they are ready to die. the world we live in. Sad but true.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:52 | 3458956 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

'Cheap' is my middle name!

I had to buy moar...because....


I'm a Cheap Bastard !

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:54 | 3458964 Prairie Dog
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:54 | 3458966 Prairie Dog
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:59 | 3458987 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks Praririe that was a decent write up. I particulary like this point.

7. Gold will survive after the world economy crumbles: Gold is the ultimate currency, as it has a value that will survive even after the whole world tumbles around you. Get yourself some gold coins and a Glock and you will be just fine when the whole world goes to shit. We welcome the era envisioned in the movie Mad Max.

Other than the world "welcome" that may be the best analysis around.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 06:58 | 3459976 new game
new game's picture

THE 2 G THEORY OF SECURITY - ultimate prtection from the ones looking out for you.

2g too ya..

got gold and glock?

kinda like that

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:59 | 3458988 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I read that and its a total waste of time. My opinion of Ritholtz now stands at zero. Hes a fucking idiot on gold.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:06 | 3459009 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hope you did not read that because of me. I'm sorry. I am too tired today, I should have just said what you said.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:15 | 3459034 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture sweat fonz. I'm willing to read anything. That kind of yellow journalism and propaganda just hardens my convictions.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:10 | 3459012 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Someone on ZH pointed out an article this morning, and I'll post the link again because I thought it was interesting:

I thought maybe Tyler would have had something to say about it. It makes a lot of sense.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:20 | 3459045 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Good article thanks for the link.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:57 | 3459142 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Dr. Engali & McMolotov: 

Remember this post about Gold's Inverted VIX term structure (from yesterday) ?

Tie that in with the article that McMolotov posted the link to, and see if your "Spidey-senses" are tingling?

Something really big is coming. Something happened in "The Financial Zone" that caused the Gold selloff.

Methinks we're about to find out what, and it won't be good.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:57 | 3459147 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Agreed. Great stuff. Really puts matters into perspective.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:01 | 3459984 new game
new game's picture

cash isn't safe? since when; i demand an investigation!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:48 | 3459119 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

Excellent article, more pieces of the puzzle come together. Thanks for the link!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:58 | 3459146 xtop23
xtop23's picture


Great read. Very interesting.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:29 | 3459434 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ McMolotov

+ mucho for the very interesting article, thanks for re-posting it, I did not see it earlier today.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:38 | 3459088 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Yeah, Barry thought he was being cute and funny. Turns out he knows jack shit. Try this Barry: Gold is the ultimate store of value and can be used as collateral or as a security instrument without counter-party risk. Also, if you're smart, you don't get taxed to high heaven by owning it.

Can't say that about stocks, can you?

Ritholtz is an idiot. I have little respect for anyone who responds to comments on his own blog.

Seriously, talk to anyone who knows something about finance (not your local banker, usually) and say you want to buy a piece of real estate and the seller wants some security. Would you show him a few gold bars or your eTrade account?

Now the eTrade account may have value, but can you turn it over to him or a third party for safe-keeping? Uh-uh. That's the point almost everyone misses. Gold (and silver) are respected stores of value that really don't fluctuate wildly, usually. This period we're in now is not normal. We're on the cusp of global financial collapse and I believe that qualifies as "this time is different" because it really is. Never has the world seen so much rampant money creation by central banks. It's not normal, nor is it legitimate.

Gold will rebound sharply when 1) the EFTs are exposed as frauds, 2) the system eventually implodes. That's two good up-moves still awaiting the patient future.

I am willing to wait. Barry can suck Bernanke's dick in the meantime.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:11 | 3459021 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Next he'll trot out the "But Gold doesn't pay a dividend" argument.

If gold has no utility or use, WHY ARE CENTRAL BANKS ACCUMULATING IT?

Why is JP Morgan's Gold Vault conveniently located right next-door to the NY Fed's vault?

Why is it going to take 7 years for Germany to get a portion of its "useless Gold" back.

Look, forget the complicated theories, stick to the basics:

The World is run by Banksters. At the top of the Bankster pile sit the Central Banksters. The Central Banksters, for some "unknown reason" have decided that they need to have piles of a "useless yellow metal", even though it doesn't pay a dividend. Since the Central Banksters run the money (& the world), do you think maybe it'd be a good idea to "do what The People Who Rule The World do", or "do what Barry Ritholtz thinks is a good idea"?

Ritholtz, Shitholtz. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:25 | 3459066 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Good enough argument for me. I'm in.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:44 | 3459263 Prairie Dog
Prairie Dog's picture

In this company, I wear my minus votes as a badge of pride.


a. A religion or religious sect generally considered to be extremist or false, with its followers often living in an unconventional manner under the guidance of an authoritarian, charismatic leader. b. The followers of such a religion or sect. 2. A system or community of religious worship and ritual. 3. The formal means of expressing religious reverence; religious ceremony and ritual. 4. A usually nonscientific method or regimen claimed by its originator to have exclusive or exceptional power in curing a particular disease. 5.
a. Obsessive, especially faddish, devotion to or veneration for a person, principle, or thing. b. The object of such devotion.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:29 | 3459419 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ PrairieDog:

+1 for you!

You can knock me all you want, pal. 

When I sold my tech stocks and bought Gold, people thought I was crazy. Then dotcom's blew up. When I sold my houses a few years later, and bought more Gold, again people told me I was crazy. The housing market crapped out. When I cleaned out my 401K's and bought more Gold, again I was told that I was crazy. But Lehman had just collapsed, so I decided to buy the dip.

Fast-forward to now.

My entry points into PM's were unintentionally well-timed, so I really don't care if the market does drop some more. It can drop a lot more, and I'm still way ahead.

As far as I'm concerned, Gold has allowed me to save up a lot of money. If I had listened to CNBC, Jim Cramer, or any of the rest of these so-called experts, I would be financially screwed.

So you look at me, and think "foolish cultist" because I have a degree of respect and reverence for Gold, and my fellow "cultists". Why shouldn't I? Gold asks nothing from me, and treats me fine. Gold has done alright by me. 

Yeah, I'm still probably crazy, but most of the people that know me are now saying things like "Man, I wish I'd listened to you back then".



Wed, 04/17/2013 - 03:22 | 3459815 Prairie Dog
Prairie Dog's picture

Good for you. I wish you health and long life.


Wed, 04/17/2013 - 07:13 | 3459995 new game
new game's picture

not to mention he has that dick head look with the voice to match.

why do other humans give these fucks any notoriety?

dont get it...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:57 | 3458977 dolph9
dolph9's picture

This isn't going to end until gold and silver become universal.

In other words:  this isn't over until virtually every single person on the entire planet appreciates gold and silver as stores of value, allocates what they can, and keeps them secure.

When this happens they will coexist alongside fiat currencies and serve as an anchor for prices.  The prices for most things will drop, and lending will once again entail significant risk.  This is a system that can be stable for a long time.

It is INSANE to entrust your personal wealth to the whims of politicians and bankers.  We must aim for no less than a revolution in human thought.

This is not utopia.  It's an inevitability.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:12 | 3459027 AlphaHunter001
AlphaHunter001's picture

" This is a system that can be stable for a long time."


Having any kind of fixed system is inherently unstable, as it can't handle shocks - such as trying to corner the market. This is the problem with bitcoin, only so many bitcoins available and people are cornering the market.


No system built off a fixed supply of anything can ever work, we all know that.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:55 | 3459130 imbrbing
imbrbing's picture

So it is always going to end up fucked, whatever model we use.

Fixed supply = fail

Infinite growth = fail

We are screwed no matter what we do!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 20:56 | 3458979 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

on the whole, grice is an idiot.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:00 | 3458986 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Its still a week and a half till options and contract expiry.  I think this battle is between the naked shorts and the standing for delivery longs.  I don't really trust the specs.   Thats likely what ABN-Ambro was about.  All deposits/contracts settled in cash.  There is no delivery.  Are we on the cusp of comex default.   What will this do to Bitcoin?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:01 | 3458990 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm long usd/jpy Bitchez 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:03 | 3458995 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not to be too blunt but quite honestly GOLD IS IRRELEVANT. you're asking me to choose an entire asset CLASS that only amounts to couple hundred billion total...versus say "a war effort for the next twenty years" worth 10 times that. there's no way i'm not buying into that war effort. it's not that gold hasn't "bottomed" or "topped"'s just not offering up the "total return potential." hell even oil is looking kinda puny here. think about it: "how much economic activity is some boring old electric utility generating?" at first glance...pretty much zero. now start factoring in "the coal mine." now start factoring in "the rail line." now start factoring in "the railroad." now start factoring in "the utility poles." now start factoring in "the utility crews." now start factoring in "the end user." now start factoring in "a consumer class." that boring utility is generating BILLIONS in economic output. and you're telling me i can't make money lending into that? with interest rates "at or near zero forever" and a Federal Government only interested in cutting a check? with inflation this low and falling i'm telling you these banks can make 100's of BILLIONS lending into that. "and that's just for starters." we COULD have a recession here of course. but because "we have at or near zero growth" instead...well, let's just say "this ain't no Ponzi scheme folks." and of course "Government can't get out of it's own way" (taking all the "savings" from slashing DOD and putting it to "work" via HMO's and road building? RETARDED!) In short...WHO THE PHUCK IS DYLAN GRICE?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:06 | 3459004 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:15 | 3459032 kito
kito's picture

Disabled Vet!!!! Are you ok??.... I hope you haven't been having 'nam flashbacks....its ok are safe.....we are not the need to attack.......

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:17 | 3459036 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

LMAO again.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:27 | 3459068 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Everyone this is the biggest announcement I have ever made on it goes.....


I'd say this officially puts us at about the 4 minute mark of the video!



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:26 | 3459420 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Kito buying gold!!  Bullshit.  I call bullshit.  Never.  He will not own one flake.  EVER lol

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:24 | 3459413 Pareto
Pareto's picture

holy crap.......ok Disabled.  You gotta get off the pipe man.  really.  completely off - as in push away from the table man.  just push away.  Its that easy.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:08 | 3459001 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Well, you must admit, it is hard to sound intelligent in the context of chaos.

I believe we have too much punditry in play from those who view the world from a narrow place.
In fact, that precludes us from finding any solutions.

As evidence, if you've noticed, we're not even looking for any.

That is the rise of the Self-Absorbed.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:07 | 3459008 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

look at  the EBAY prices.  Check out what the bids are. leaf gold coin&_fscr=1

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:14 | 3459191 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Yep. I was just checking prices for silver quarters on ebay, which, of late, I've been unable to entertain because of the ridiculous premiums. They're anywhere from 16-35% over spot. Obviously, there's decoupling from the paper price and phyz going on and a lot of it in the lower dollar value purchases.

Seems the muppets are awakening. As today is the day after the most hated (by me) day in the US - tax day - I can clearly see parts of my survival plan in action:

Screw .gov

Engage in the "underground economy" by working for or trading in cash

Buy PMs

Did I mention screw .gov?

Of course, ebay transactions are all trackable, but does anybody seriously think the IRS is going to come knocking on the doors of everyone who has been buying rolls (or less) of silver quarters or dimes? Doubt that.

My favorite word of late has been "dislocation," followed closely by "disruption." Lots of both occurring presently, which is very, very encouraging.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:42 | 3459485 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The PM Premium:Price widget is showing a very high 21% AGE premium over spot price.  The widget is at the bottom of their home page:

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:07 | 3459011 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Anyone who needs to sell gold to pay his debts should not be buying it. Gold should be held as the safest hoard of excess wealth any individual has. The hoard you hope to never use except in an absolute emergency. The hoard you hope to pass on to your children.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:59 | 3459729 Debugas
Debugas's picture

and/or as your pension fund

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 14:23 | 3462292 e-recep
e-recep's picture

gold can be used to buy property on a major avenue when there is blood in the streets.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:20 | 3459044 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

Gold and silver only have this type of selling when there are extreme shortages of the physical metal.  I am totally aware that before this takedown occurred there was an imminent LBMA [London Bullion Market Association] default.

We had already seen COMEX inventories plunging.  In 90 days COMEX inventories saw an incredible decline.  So immediately available physical gold was disappearing.  People around the world don’t understand what has been happening since Cyprus….

Entities went to the LBMA and said, ‘We don’t trust anybody anymore.  We want our physical metal.’  They were told they would be cash settled instead by a bullion bank.  The Western governments have been trying to plug holes, and the reason for it has to do with the default that was taking place at the LBMA.

This is why this smash has been orchestrated because of the run that has been taking place on physical metal.  So Western governments had to do this because of an imminent run on the unallocated LBMA system.  The LBMA bullion banks had become so mismatched at one point on their trading positions vs real world demand that they had to orchestrate this smash.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:25 | 3459057 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Keep stacking those PM.s

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:12 | 3459188 monad
monad's picture

30% moar

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:29 | 3459073 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Yes much healthier - God knows a two year consolidation is actually the same thing as a parabola. 

As for participants, we all needed a good sound raping.  I'm so grateful.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:30 | 3459078 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

IMO, owning physical gold and having possession of that gold is probably a better use of money than putting it in a bank as an unsecured loan for negative real interest. The trick will be to ensure that you have a way to trade it for the things you need in the event TSHTF.

On the other habd, I do not believe paper gold is anything other than a casino bet where the house gets to choose the numbers and how much your money it takes.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 01:56 | 3459723 Debugas
Debugas's picture

you can keep physical cash under your matress instead

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:40 | 3459099 jomama
jomama's picture

i stopped reading at gold 'market'.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 21:53 | 3459129 Zodiac
Zodiac's picture

Just think how much more healthy the gold market would be if it lost another 30%!  Wow

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:00 | 3459153 constantine
constantine's picture

As an almost comical sidenote to the completely farcical fluctuations of the silver market, literally a day prior to the collapse of the price, a huge landslide wiped out operations at Rio Tinto's gold and silver mine in the USA.  This will reduce silver supply by 10-15% in the USA.  However, only technicals matter (which can be interpreted anyway the central planners direct CNBC).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:08 | 3459175 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

"Investors have become more confident that the worst is over and everything will be all right: Europe has solved its problems in principle, that the U.S. is on track, and China beat"

I am not even going to comment.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:11 | 3459189 rp1
rp1's picture

GOLD IS DEAD.  Come back in 20 years.   The BIG BULL MARKET is Japan!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:18 | 3459202 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Yes. And the Astros are going to win the world series.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:13 | 3459192 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Look at the price and premiums for physical silver and gold on APMEX.


Now look at paper price.

A growing gap between physical and paper PMs.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:21 | 3459214 Bingfa
Bingfa's picture

From Harvey Organ:
we  lost another monstrous 8.42 tonnes GLD today following 22 tonnes on Friday and 4.2 tonnes yesterday.

Total corruption....

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:27 | 3459227 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

i can get a decent meal and a toga for 300 bucks.  

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:34 | 3459240 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

With pot, at least you know you can smoke your stash if all else goes wrong. 

Perhaps this is why they hate pot so much. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 23:06 | 3459346 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

In regimented amounts it can lead to creativity. 

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:18 | 3459584 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

WTF, that's plum stooopid on the MNC's part.

Long chips & chocolate if it's ever decriminal/legalized. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 22:35 | 3459241 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

No one knows why gold got hammered?!!?!?  Is this clown still in restraints?  macGuire on Kingword, Butler on SilverSeek... pretty simple... like this douchebag's intellect... Time to tar and feather Gensler... the corrupt roach...

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