Gas Price Drop Prompts Biggest Deflationary CPI Miss In 7 Months

Tyler Durden's picture


Thanks, it seems, to the global economic slowdown driving energy prices lower, the Consumer Price Index just printed at -0.2% MoM, notably below expectations (its biggest miss in 7 months) and well down from last month's +0.7%. The main driver of this deflationary spike is the drop in gasoline prices -4.4% MoM. Year-over-year CPI (ex Food and Energy) lagged expectations also (1.9% vs 2.0% exp.) meeting the Fed's oh-so-well engineered mandates. However, the 1.9% rise is the slowest pace of inflation in 20 months. On the bright side, the price of used cars is rising at its fastest pace in months thanks to the 97-month term loans and government credit creation.




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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3455667 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I'm with Charles Hugh Smith: Root for deflation. 


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3455687 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

Hope to see gas below $3 in California (and everywhere else) soon ...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3455696 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I was thinking ten cents myself.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:07 | 3456008 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

I'm cool with deflation. Unlike most Americans, I have 0 debt so the money printing orgy hasn't done shit to help me. I sure as hell wouldn't mind prices going lower.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 13:02 | 3456919 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The S&P at 1200 would likely see these prices. We'll keep our fingers crossed!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:03 | 3455693 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Oh, so it is all about gas prices? The price of gas has almost tripled in 10 years, yet "inflation" barely budged. Now it drops a little, and inflation drops like a stone?


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455705 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Gas was $1.80 here when Bush handed over the reins of power to our glorious leader.


I hoped it wouldn't change.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:04 | 3456261 gridlocked
gridlocked's picture

Yeah funny how gas prices drop when the economy is crashing

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:48 | 3456536 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

So does Gold, Silver, etc.  It's more of a memoradum on demand if anything else.

This is due to the fact that demand for EVERYTHING crashes - including PMs.  Also, money run out of cash because deflation is the enemy of a more TRUE wealth creation vehicles (i.e. small biz, VC investments, mining, wages, etc).

That's why it's first by major deflation, then HYPER inflation.......but the in between is usually some type of social event like a war, an election, or terror attack.

This is another reason why the whole "false flag" scenarios peak *my* interest, because it usually in the interest of those who are losing money on these endeavors (i.e. oil). 

Societal Uncertainty = inflation for commodities.  That's why the price of Gold jumped up the minute the 2nd plane flew into the WTC.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:45 | 3455915 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Shizz, you're getting your wish. Check out the St Louis Fed chart for inflation protection bonds for April...negative.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:57 | 3455669 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Just wait until they start using chained CPI for Social Security recipients.

Milk, bread, and eggs will be going up at 10% per year but "chained" CPI will be 0.5%, which is about what those folks will be earning on any savings they might have been lucky enough to addumulate.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3455670 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

Inflation is not a problem.   End of story.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3455690 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Or is not needing to drive a car to work a problem?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3455781 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Based on the labor participation rate, no.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:04 | 3455703 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, except for people who like to eat food, or drive cars.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:16 | 3455754 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



....and drink coffee. I really like it but it's getting so expensive.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 14:44 | 3457410 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Especially high quality arabica beans I buy at a local roaster. My last guilty pleasure. I guess I could switch to shitty can coffee sold in 1lb cans that now contain 11 oz. Then I could try and fool myself I'm saving money while sipping yak piss.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:38 | 3455861 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Uncle Vito said:  "Inflation is not a problem.   End of story."

"Your health care costs are not going up at 15%-25% per year."

"Your payroll taxes did not go up 2% in January."

"Your income is not down 10% this year."

"You are earning 6% on your savings."

"Food is not up 10%-15% this year."

Thank you Obi-Wan Bernanke.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:35 | 3455863 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

Inflation is a tax, interest is the true killer.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:51 | 3455946 JohnBooke
JohnBooke's picture

Unless you pay for health care which is up 3.9% y/y

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:50 | 3456555 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Right, because affording rent is NOT a problem.

What fucking world do people live in?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3455673 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It just keeps getting better and better for the consumer.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:52 | 3456571 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Wait, there still are some free market principles?  You gotta be fucking kidding me!

Guess what central planners: when wages decrease, deflation then has an increase.

But I'm sure when the guys over at the Fed have their Prime Rib at Morton's tonight with the CEOs and shareholders of the world (and probably on the tax payer dime), I'm *sure* this will be discussed #eyeroll

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3455674 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Ah yes, deflation.  What all this printing and spending is all about.


And when deflation picks up, it's going to get hellish out there.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455710 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Actually the stated goal is to create inflation unlike what the dope who wrote this article says. Insofar as money goes "Tylers Durden is a place for the criminally retarded." I love it when they bitch about their cell phone bill actually. Anywho "down to your last cuff link" Goldman. "Down to your last cuff link."

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:11 | 3456024 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

dis vet, rumor has it you were disabled much like j f kerry in the ass while running away from the that true?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3455725 realtick
realtick's picture

fer sure - nice to see the taboo "D" word being featured here for a change

maybe soon the other "D" word, namely the US Dollar, will be discussed in sentences that don't include the word "collapse"

the long term charts suggest the dollar is going much higher from here

Bet On Your Dollar Bottom

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3455899 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Must be nice not having to eat.

As for the charts, they can go full hockey stick and still not provide any information at all, as measured in purchasing power. All they do is make up a relative pain index.



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:55 | 3455945 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

It's actually a mixture of deflation and inflation...some call it Biflation.


Insruance, food and tuition and so on are still rising.

Deflation tends to result in more civil unrest so CBs and leaders try to avoid it. My guess, based on history, is that we'll see more "stimuls" it QE or whatever, but more, lots more in one form or another.


House prices, textiles, are sinking. Even rents are dropping with oversupply hitting many markets. Everone piled into that boat thinking they can all sit at home in their PJs making millions in the rental property business. Think again.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3455678 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Last time I looked the private for profit criminal fed cartel was not contracting the money supply

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3455689 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bingo.  In two words; "bidless paper"  - The "flation" debate is pointless as scarcity and real wages will trump any bullshit eCONomic theory.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:13 | 3455744 akarc
akarc's picture

"Last time I looked the private for profit criminal fed cartel was not contracting the money supply"

And the money was not trickling down to regular folk either. How do you have inflation without wages or consumers?

I'm sorry I forgot about price gouging and the victim tax. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3455681 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

must view charts.  copper in warehouse at all time highs, up 180% in 6 months.  economy IS in freefall.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3455682 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Hell yeah ! ...another flashing neon sign to keep printing moar.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:05 | 3455709 akarc
akarc's picture

"Hell yeah ! ...another flashing neon sign to keep printing moar."

And put it on buildboards everywhere, followed by the words, IT AIN'T WORKING!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:58 | 3455683 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

biggest cpi miss in 7 months= good for a 120 plus open on dow and 15 plus on s&p.


earnings expectations that are so fucking low, yet when these shitty companies beat by very slim margins, they are celebrated as if they had a great quarter.


it would be like a professor changing the grade of an A to 55 plus rather than 90 plus.


that is what is with the markets, u only need to do so little now to get rewarded significantly.


it would have been so much better had this terrible tragedy happened on wall st yesterday, at least the people who would be hurt would not have been innocent, but criminals. would have been nice if obama and bernanke and blankfein were at the marathon, fucking criminals.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3455727 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You know I've been in that desert in Syria.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:18 | 3455755 akarc
akarc's picture

"earnings expectations that are so fucking low, yet when these shitty companies beat by very slim margins, they are celebrated as if they had a great quarter."

Thats because if they didn't lose anything in this rat hole they call an economy it was a great quarter/illusion and God Bless POMO

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3455686 madcows
madcows's picture

Gas prices dropped a nickel... OH NO!  DEFLATION!  Let's see, if the real inflation number is 14%, and we jigger it down to -.2%, then the magical number says deflation, but that's just a bunch of hooey so we can slam down the markets and BTFD and rape the muppets. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:02 | 3455700 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly.  What is this gas price compared to 5, 10, 15, years ago?  Many here have been saying GS and other PDs will beat down paper gold, then attack oil.  They have to, otherwise inflation up, rates up, game fucking over.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:02 | 3455692 Manipuflation
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3455713 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Many states have this tax already.  Many ways around it.  One way is to capture and collect all your rainwater.  Others include agricultural exemptions.  The livelyhood of many depends on rain that never leaves the fucking property.  Lots of legal precident already out there.  Go ahead try to enforce any of this and watch the lawsuits roll.  The plan will end up costing the state more than it brings in and make lots of attorneys happy.  Our leaders and administrators are getting desparate and they need to "look busy", nothing more.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:26 | 3455811 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Honey get the checkbook.......looks like rain.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:52 | 3455934 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

How can we, as a society, protect against this egregious theft from your neighbor who is too lazy to grow a garden? 

Just how many fucked up laws are on the books already?  And we keep electing these assholes so they can make MOAR laws?  Umm, hello?  At the least, we could use a one hundred year politician free period of time to self-correct back towards sanity.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:06 | 3456000 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Old news, has already been defeated. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455718 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, the Libtard half of the country has gone full retard.

I am slowly trying to organize my life so I never have to set foot in, or spend money in, any Libtard state.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:08 | 3455730 Vuke
Vuke's picture

A rain tax, along with a birth tax, air tax and disease tax is an example of good "progressive" thinking.  The ultimate goal of progressives is a perfect world (for them) with a prison for those outside the gate.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3455738 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Let them build their "gated" communities, I would debate you as to who the prisoners really are.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:15 | 3455749 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Pet taxes have moved into my region lately. $10 for fido $5 for mittens. I wonder what TPTB have to pay for us?

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