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Gas Price Drop Prompts Biggest Deflationary CPI Miss In 7 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Thanks, it seems, to the global economic slowdown driving energy prices lower, the Consumer Price Index just printed at -0.2% MoM, notably below expectations (its biggest miss in 7 months) and well down from last month's +0.7%. The main driver of this deflationary spike is the drop in gasoline prices -4.4% MoM. Year-over-year CPI (ex Food and Energy) lagged expectations also (1.9% vs 2.0% exp.) meeting the Fed's oh-so-well engineered mandates. However, the 1.9% rise is the slowest pace of inflation in 20 months. On the bright side, the price of used cars is rising at its fastest pace in months thanks to the 97-month term loans and government credit creation.

 

 

 

 

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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:54 | 3455667 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I'm with Charles Hugh Smith: Root for deflation. 

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3455687 WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

Hope to see gas below $3 in California (and everywhere else) soon ...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3455696 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I was thinking ten cents myself.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:07 | 3456008 nugjuice
nugjuice's picture

I'm cool with deflation. Unlike most Americans, I have 0 debt so the money printing orgy hasn't done shit to help me. I sure as hell wouldn't mind prices going lower.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 13:02 | 3456919 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

The S&P at 1200 would likely see these prices. We'll keep our fingers crossed!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:03 | 3455693 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Oh, so it is all about gas prices? The price of gas has almost tripled in 10 years, yet "inflation" barely budged. Now it drops a little, and inflation drops like a stone?

Really?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455705 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Gas was $1.80 here when Bush handed over the reins of power to our glorious leader.

 

I hoped it wouldn't change.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:04 | 3456261 gridlocked
gridlocked's picture

Yeah funny how gas prices drop when the economy is crashing

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:48 | 3456536 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

So does Gold, Silver, etc.  It's more of a memoradum on demand if anything else.

This is due to the fact that demand for EVERYTHING crashes - including PMs.  Also, money run out of cash because deflation is the enemy of a more TRUE wealth creation vehicles (i.e. small biz, VC investments, mining, wages, etc).

That's why it's first by major deflation, then HYPER inflation.......but the in between is usually some type of social event like a war, an election, or terror attack.

This is another reason why the whole "false flag" scenarios peak *my* interest, because it usually in the interest of those who are losing money on these endeavors (i.e. oil). 

Societal Uncertainty = inflation for commodities.  That's why the price of Gold jumped up the minute the 2nd plane flew into the WTC.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:45 | 3455915 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

Shizz, you're getting your wish. Check out the St Louis Fed chart for inflation protection bonds for April...negative.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:57 | 3455669 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Just wait until they start using chained CPI for Social Security recipients.

Milk, bread, and eggs will be going up at 10% per year but "chained" CPI will be 0.5%, which is about what those folks will be earning on any savings they might have been lucky enough to addumulate.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3455670 uncle_vito
uncle_vito's picture

Inflation is not a problem.   End of story.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3455690 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Or is not needing to drive a car to work a problem?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:20 | 3455781 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Based on the labor participation rate, no.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:04 | 3455703 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, except for people who like to eat food, or drive cars.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:16 | 3455754 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

....and drink coffee. I really like it but it's getting so expensive.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 14:44 | 3457410 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Especially high quality arabica beans I buy at a local roaster. My last guilty pleasure. I guess I could switch to shitty can coffee sold in 1lb cans that now contain 11 oz. Then I could try and fool myself I'm saving money while sipping yak piss.

Miffed:-)

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:38 | 3455861 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Uncle Vito said:  "Inflation is not a problem.   End of story."

"Your health care costs are not going up at 15%-25% per year."

"Your payroll taxes did not go up 2% in January."

"Your income is not down 10% this year."

"You are earning 6% on your savings."

"Food is not up 10%-15% this year."

Thank you Obi-Wan Bernanke.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:35 | 3455863 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

Inflation is a tax, interest is the true killer.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:51 | 3455946 JohnBooke
JohnBooke's picture

Unless you pay for health care which is up 3.9% y/y

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:50 | 3456555 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Right, because affording rent is NOT a problem.

What fucking world do people live in?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3455673 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It just keeps getting better and better for the consumer.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:52 | 3456571 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Wait, there still are some free market principles?  You gotta be fucking kidding me!

Guess what central planners: when wages decrease, deflation then has an increase.

But I'm sure when the guys over at the Fed have their Prime Rib at Morton's tonight with the CEOs and shareholders of the world (and probably on the tax payer dime), I'm *sure* this will be discussed #eyeroll

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:56 | 3455674 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Ah yes, deflation.  What all this printing and spending is all about.

 

And when deflation picks up, it's going to get hellish out there.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455710 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Actually the stated goal is to create inflation unlike what the dope who wrote this article says. Insofar as money goes "Tylers Durden is a place for the criminally retarded." I love it when they bitch about their cell phone bill actually. Anywho "down to your last cuff link" Goldman. "Down to your last cuff link."

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:11 | 3456024 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

dis vet, rumor has it you were disabled much like j f kerry in the ass while running away from the action..is that true?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3455725 realtick
realtick's picture

fer sure - nice to see the taboo "D" word being featured here for a change

maybe soon the other "D" word, namely the US Dollar, will be discussed in sentences that don't include the word "collapse"

the long term charts suggest the dollar is going much higher from here

Bet On Your Dollar Bottom

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:42 | 3455899 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Must be nice not having to eat.

As for the charts, they can go full hockey stick and still not provide any information at all, as measured in purchasing power. All they do is make up a relative pain index.

 

 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:55 | 3455945 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

It's actually a mixture of deflation and inflation...some call it Biflation.

 

Insruance, food and tuition and so on are still rising.

Deflation tends to result in more civil unrest so CBs and leaders try to avoid it. My guess, based on history, is that we'll see more "stimuls"...call it QE or whatever, but more, lots more in one form or another.

 

House prices, textiles, are sinking. Even rents are dropping with oversupply hitting many markets. Everone piled into that boat thinking they can all sit at home in their PJs making millions in the rental property business. Think again.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3455678 jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Last time I looked the private for profit criminal fed cartel was not contracting the money supply

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:01 | 3455689 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bingo.  In two words; "bidless paper"  - The "flation" debate is pointless as scarcity and real wages will trump any bullshit eCONomic theory.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:13 | 3455744 akarc
akarc's picture

"Last time I looked the private for profit criminal fed cartel was not contracting the money supply"

And the money was not trickling down to regular folk either. How do you have inflation without wages or consumers?

I'm sorry I forgot about price gouging and the victim tax. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3455681 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

must view charts.  copper in warehouse at all time highs, up 180% in 6 months.  economy IS in freefall.

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:59 | 3455682 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Hell yeah ! ...another flashing neon sign to keep printing moar.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:05 | 3455709 akarc
akarc's picture

"Hell yeah ! ...another flashing neon sign to keep printing moar."

And put it on buildboards everywhere, followed by the words, IT AIN'T WORKING!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 08:58 | 3455683 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

biggest cpi miss in 7 months= good for a 120 plus open on dow and 15 plus on s&p.

 

earnings expectations that are so fucking low, yet when these shitty companies beat by very slim margins, they are celebrated as if they had a great quarter.

 

it would be like a professor changing the grade of an A to 55 plus rather than 90 plus.

 

that is what is with the markets, u only need to do so little now to get rewarded significantly.

 

it would have been so much better had this terrible tragedy happened on wall st yesterday, at least the people who would be hurt would not have been innocent, but criminals. would have been nice if obama and bernanke and blankfein were at the marathon, fucking criminals.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:09 | 3455727 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You know I've been in that desert in Syria.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:18 | 3455755 akarc
akarc's picture

"earnings expectations that are so fucking low, yet when these shitty companies beat by very slim margins, they are celebrated as if they had a great quarter."

Thats because if they didn't lose anything in this rat hole they call an economy it was a great quarter/illusion and God Bless POMO

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:00 | 3455686 madcows
madcows's picture

Gas prices dropped a nickel... OH NO!  DEFLATION!  Let's see, if the real inflation number is 14%, and we jigger it down to -.2%, then the magical number says deflation, but that's just a bunch of hooey so we can slam down the markets and BTFD and rape the muppets. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:02 | 3455700 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly.  What is this gas price compared to 5, 10, 15, years ago?  Many here have been saying GS and other PDs will beat down paper gold, then attack oil.  They have to, otherwise inflation up, rates up, game fucking over.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:02 | 3455692 Manipuflation
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3455713 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Many states have this tax already.  Many ways around it.  One way is to capture and collect all your rainwater.  Others include agricultural exemptions.  The livelyhood of many depends on rain that never leaves the fucking property.  Lots of legal precident already out there.  Go ahead try to enforce any of this and watch the lawsuits roll.  The plan will end up costing the state more than it brings in and make lots of attorneys happy.  Our leaders and administrators are getting desparate and they need to "look busy", nothing more.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:26 | 3455811 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Honey get the checkbook.......looks like rain.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:52 | 3455934 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

How can we, as a society, protect against this egregious theft from your neighbor who is too lazy to grow a garden? 

Just how many fucked up laws are on the books already?  And we keep electing these assholes so they can make MOAR laws?  Umm, hello?  At the least, we could use a one hundred year politician free period of time to self-correct back towards sanity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxFzJ2Gtgxc

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:06 | 3456000 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Old news, has already been defeated. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455718 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Well, the Libtard half of the country has gone full retard.

I am slowly trying to organize my life so I never have to set foot in, or spend money in, any Libtard state.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:08 | 3455730 Vuke
Vuke's picture

A rain tax, along with a birth tax, air tax and disease tax is an example of good "progressive" thinking.  The ultimate goal of progressives is a perfect world (for them) with a prison for those outside the gate.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3455738 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Let them build their "gated" communities, I would debate you as to who the prisoners really are.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:15 | 3455749 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Pet taxes have moved into my region lately. $10 for fido $5 for mittens. I wonder what TPTB have to pay for us?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:04 | 3455701 monopoly
monopoly's picture

97 month car loans. How absurd is that. Yeah, Amerika is growing, right. What a farce.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3455722 akarc
akarc's picture

Acts of desperation to keep the Ponzi scheme going. It all works until it doesn't anymore.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:48 | 3456161 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Come on.  We all know very well that 109 comes after 97.  We can never run out of numbers.  What are you guys dropouts?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:06 | 3455714 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

well I'll be damned. Looks like the CNBC pundits want you to think the market dropped yesterday because of what happened in Boston. These guys are shameless.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:07 | 3455726 nick howdy
nick howdy's picture

You mean that things are getting cheaper and so I won't have to pay as much and may not have to get into debt to fund my meager existence...Yes this is very bad!

Our whole system (of enslavement) could blow up because of this....No wonder Central Bankers don't like deflation...I understand...IT'S BAD!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456158 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It's bad for them ergo it is bad for you.

Just turn your TV on and leave it on, citizen.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:11 | 3455731 ekm
ekm's picture

Deflation my ass. What the fuck are they talking about?

It's all about the POINT OF REFERENCE.

http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx

(click on 11 years button)

 

Compare it to 2000, not with few months ago.

 

We have had 100% increase, which is HYPERINFLATION of gasoline price.

Hyperinflation has plateaued at 100% but it has stayed there.

 

The proper commentary would be:

There is some relief on the gasoline price Hyperinflation

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:45 | 3456152 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

LOL.  It can't be hyperinflation, if it was planned.  And now that the plan has been executed, I'm feeling pretty good.  Not about myself.  I'm fucked.  Just nice to know the plan worked out.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456156 Variance Doc
Variance Doc's picture

Careful.  You need to define hyperinflation.  Many, including myself, define it as a loss in CONfidence of the fiat currency at hand;  NOT as "really high inflation."

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:13 | 3455745 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Dow futures climbing and climbing and climbing... "Get Ready To Ralleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeye!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:00 | 3455904 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Expect full economic kamikaze suicide next from Bernanke all the Central Bank Keynesians socialist control freak types who fear deflation since it will repudiate their ideas and discredit them outright. Pride before a fall can't have that PHD thesis proved wrong. Keep hammering the gold fuckfaces we still win in the end.

We may win but ain't going to end well for a lot people and that is something that pains me personally but at the same time I am not the one being a macromanaging control freak or forcing my ways onto other people like a financial rapist.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 09:58 | 3455977 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

I don't get it.  When gas goes up, it's not inflation.  When it goes down, it's deflation?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:00 | 3456115 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Don't quote me as 100% on this but it is either gas prices, crude or the combo of both in general that tend to traditionally mirror the level of the stock market. When they rise the market rises. When they fall the market falls. You have the gold takedown, Hindenberg omen now this. The subtle hints from the FED about increasing interest rates on Treasuries, bank stress tests showing 50% drop in the stock market. It is all pointing to a major downswing coming and coming soon QE to infinity and beyond or not. It is almost like Benny and the socialist shills are setting a trap. Corral all the sheep into the stock market slaughter pen. Once they got the majority of the middle class and their savings/401ks/pensions in the pen they are going to pull the rug out and wipe them the fuck out in one fell swoop by crashing the market and trying to create hyperinflation at the same time.

And after reading this.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/imf-slashes-world-gdp-expectati...

I am almost absolutely convinced they are going to crash the market and raise interest rates on Treasuries. Why simple, if you allow Japan go fuller that full retard on the printing, you can throttle your presses down as long as Japan buys the difference the FED is currently monetizing in Treasuries. Remember they all work in tandem with the IMF playing orchestra conductor.

My advice if you are stuck in slaughter pen run as fast as possible into short term T-bills right now before blood bath starts. If you can preserve principle you will be ahead of most everyone else after the slaughter finishes.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:32 | 3456110 Metal Minded
Metal Minded's picture

Unprecedented volume of refined gasoline export continues:

U.S. Exports of Finished Motor Gasoline (Thousand Barrels)

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfexus1&f=m

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:41 | 3456136 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

It's a global market.  LOL.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:39 | 3456131 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Gasoline usage has been dropping steadily in the US since 2008.  Obviously the price of gasoline has its own unique "rhythm" that has little to do with demand.

But no worries, oligarchs, speculators, other middlemen and the government are not to blame.

Look in the mirror.

/sarc

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:49 | 3456171 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Geez, deflation wouldn't have to do with wages and its relation to money supply, does it?

http://t.co/dcxFZillW4

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