Guest Post: Gold Crash: What It's Not Telling Us

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Lance Roberts of Street Talk Live,

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billsykes's picture

Love how these charts came out after the price dropped, not before. Way to guru. 

 

Find anywhere he says sell gold:

from aug 2011: 

http://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=beware-long-term-investing%26start%3d80++site%3astreettalklive.com+&d=4608964750547154&mkt=en-CA&setlang=en-CA&w=6V10f3BfIqsv6mdVpwXs1GKpcvhdyHIK

Divided States of America's picture

Why do we need Larry FUCKIN DINK Fink to say markets are cheap and keep buying...and effin Fed J-bitch Yellen says they on stand by to do more to ensure market operates normally and maintain stability...When was the markets going up every fuckin day NORMAL, thats not fuckin normal....

Yup Gold/Silver goes down 20% and soon to be going down red today also..while fuckin markets rebound after one big down day...everyone forgot that there was a bomb yesterday.

Ahmeexnal's picture

Seems like the great market crash between april 21-april 25 is right on schedule.

ZerOhead's picture

"Therefore, if you currently OWN gold I would recommend you begin taking some profits..."

I recommend that if you currently own GLD I you should begin to switch to GOLD...

Pinto Currency's picture

 

This article would be important if the prices on which the commentary was based reflected actual physical market demand vs supply.

For more than 6 weeks leading up to the price crash over the last couple of days, both the LBMA and Shanghai Gold Exchange were seeing 12 to 20 tonnes per day allocated for delivery.  And the spot/cash price was in backwardation vs. the near futures month for weeks on end for gold and silver.  So that crashes the price and causes the uniformed to puke up their physical holdings.

That is how manipulated markets work but not how price discovery markets work.  We know that manipulation and government intervention will always fail.

With the current price control activity, we now hear about severe physical silver market shortage and gold delivery allocation issues on the LBMA.

It's not about the price chart.

Joe Sixpack's picture

See yesterday's inventory of 100 ozt. silver bars on APMEX graphically. People sure took advantage of the sale!

 

http://gold-silver.us/forum/showthread.php?27317-GSUS-APMEX-Precious-Met...

UnpatrioticHoarder's picture

The COMEX open interest for gold and silver barely shifted on Monday amidst the price carnage. There is neglible capitulation by longs, the price move is a contrived raid by short-sellers.

kill switch's picture

I posted this today,,, there is plenty of silver...HAHA

 

Scroll down

 

http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/category/467/american-silver-eagles-uncirculated.aspx

 

Paper and phys are taking a different fork in the road,,,, ETF's Down the sink, see ya fellas!!!

trader1's picture

sorry, can't vote you up.

 

+1

cifo's picture

I am guessing that Lance Roberts made a lot of money by shorting gold.

Bananamerican's picture

--Conspiracy?

--Love Handles on a "softened Global economy"?

New England Patriot's picture

"The "gold bugs" are yelling that it is a conspiracy theory by the Fed"

 

This statement implies gold bugs are yelling the crash is a conspiracy theory authored by the Fed.

 

Huh?

cynicalskeptic's picture

Summers wrote a paper in the 80's on the correlation of hjigher gold prices to higher interest rates paid on T-Bills.  Gold is the canary in the fiscal coal mine.  Hiogher gold prices, risong rappidly scream that there are fundamental problems with a nation's financial affairs.  Volcker said hsi one regret in dealing with the 80's financial crisis was 'NOT SUPPRESSING THE PRICE OF GOLD" - a lseeon his successors learned well.

The history of gold price manipulation and suppression by central banks as part of currency control efforts is well documented.  LInks to bullion banks are evident and documented. Government 'intervention' in gold markets to help out bullion banks in trouble have also occurred.  "Brown's bottom' being the most blatant.   Gold has been flying out of London and COMEX, silver stocks are low - the world financial system is continuing its never-ending 'print' cycle with Japan being the latest to go into overdrive.....   gold was on the way up, demand was growing and those selling had problems ....

Both the bullion banks and central banks had very good reasons to smash down the price of golds - though short term 'fixes' only worsen the long term problems.

akak's picture

His mistake is understandable and obvious, as the kneejerk conformist/'mainstream' analyst and man on the street is automatically programmed to equate "conspiracy" with "conspiracy theory".  In THEIR theory (which is wildly naive and historically clueless), there is no such thing in the real world as an actual conspiracy, so therefore all such accusations or implied actions are simply ipso facto "theories", to be ridiculed and dismissed out of hand.

razorthin's picture

He's warning you about equities.  File it.

Stoploss's picture

Here, let me ass   ist with this.

 

Look at all commodities, then look at the 10 / 30 Yr.

Commodity drops of this nature always presage market declines, since in a world of CB largesse, commodities are hedges most of the time.

Any questions?

Anasteus's picture

The dude forgot to write that all this charting game refers to the paper gold market. If he even were right there is no connection to the physical market, which is evolving quite differently. If he had compared recent physical market fundamentals and, particularly the recent volume of buys, he wouldn’t have found any "reversion to the mean"... which, as regards the physical gold market, makes the analysis irrelevant.

Spitzer's picture

 

 

All this talk about COMEX, silver, GLD, manipulation is all noise to me. Even I have been caught up in this.

Why should anyone care what is going on in any gold market, paper or physical until something happens in the US and Japanese 33 year bubble bull markets ?

I still maintain as I said 2 years ago, that the onset of freegold happens when there is selling/trouble in the BOND markets mainly in the US and Japan.

$1000 dollar gold, $2000 gold , what is the difference ? Who cares ? I have paid close to both. As long as BOND prices keep rising and the FED can do no wrong, nothing matters. As long as BONDS are the premier store of value for shrimps and giants alike, long or short term, nothing matters.

Nothing matters in GLD, nothing matters at the coin dealers, nothing matters at the bullion banks, nothing matters at King World News et al.

This is like being in late 60's and early 70's yaking about the price of gold as it bounces between $35 and $60. It didn't matter if you bought at $35 or $80 then until there was trouble in the BOND market and it doesn't matter now as it bounces between $1000 and $2000 now.

cynicalskeptic's picture

so... you really think the bond market is without problems?      The bit players are already defaulting while the majors are scrambling to keep the ponzi scheme going - opnly who's left to buy all the bonds vbeiong issued.  With the Fed buyong MORE than wnhatTreasury issued in 2011, seems to me that we're running out of time in this game of musical chairs.   What do you want to be holding when the music stops?          besides 12ga 00,, 9mm  and Nato standard that is.............

Anasteus's picture

Right, just a brief remark. Unfortunately, there is a difference between $1000 and $2000. You can buy two times more gold for $1000 than for $2000.

Essential Intelligence's picture

The recent looting of Cyprus was the pivotal event that triggered the great flight from European banks who can no longer be considered safe, since money stored there could now be confiscated by the troika - but the same logic also applies to gold (at least at this point in time), hence the present flow of money from Europe to the US, temporarily boosting the USD, which was the goal of this recent manipulation to begin with.  Details in our fresh report.

FieldingMellish's picture

Interesting theory except since Cyprus, the USD has been falling...

Spitzer's picture

 

This could be how the bond bubble gets pricked. (because that is all that matters anyway)

Creditor nations buy gold with dollars (bonds) from debtor Euro nations, and then the debtor nations spend the dollars they receive. Not only does this put gold in strong hands, it also puts bonds in weak hands because the Euro nations are not going to buy hold the bonds like the creditor nations did. They are going to use the proceeds to fund their their needs.

How can the US government spend the money they get from bond sales while another government in Europe spends it at the same time ?

FieldingMellish's picture

And imagine how fast the dash to the exit will be when the deficit grows as the rates start climbing and yet more junk needs to be printed to pay off the old junk. Rates will be kept as low as possible and the Fed will keep buying bonds until the last possible second... then KABOOM!

Gene Parmesan's picture

"In a one word answer…Are you kidding me"

Uhh...

algol_dog's picture

Short UGLD since Friday .... I am so happy. Thanks Suckers!

auric1234's picture

You suck at being a troll. Any sane person around here would be fine with shorting the worthless paper.

 

Watts_D_Matter's picture

Hey OddLot Dog, Did you short 3 shares like you usually do?

kw2012's picture

I have to laugh at those calling for $800 gold when it costs $1200 to produce. Can the US artificially push gold lower? Probably  by selling gold it doesn't have. But how long can the US keep this up? 3 years?

ParkAveFlasher's picture

At these prices, I expect more seismic activity, avalanches, landslides, cave-ins, floods, diseases, rainstorms, storm surges, frog plagues, and bad clams in the mining industry.

The shutdowns will continue until the prices improve.  It's Thugs vs. Galt time!!!

chubbar's picture

From Harvey Organ's report

  1. "At the comex, the open interest in silver fell slightly to 163,331 contracts despite the massive raid on Friday. The open interest on the gold contract surprisingly rose by 13,864 contracts to 430,029. So much for gold and silver liquidation. The total amount of gold ounces standing for April rose to 34.199 tonnes and silver also had an increase to 3.145 million oz standing.

    If the OI for silver remains elevated again tomorrow despite the huge loss in price today, one must believe that only a sovereign (maybe China) could withstand that much pain. The price of silver has declined from $35.00 to $ 23.00 with open interest rising. The loss has to be gigantic and only a sovereign could be that stoic."
draug's picture

Cost of production (ie. mining) is irrelevant, gold isn't a consumable. Existing gold doesn't disappear if mines go away.

sessinpo's picture

I see. Cost don't make a difference like deficits, right?

 

We'll just have to disagree on that one.

auric1234's picture

Most existing gold is not for sale at any FIAT price.

 

Imminent Crucible's picture

Only an ignorant blockhead would down-arrow you for that. Who does not realize that the VAST majority of gold stocks is simply not on the market? Not in the registered category, not in the available category--it's simply not for sale for paper money.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Irrelevant"?  "Isn't consumable"?  What star cluster do you come from?  Aah, a Ferengi.  Of course.

It is relevant to real demand.  Whether that demand comes from CB's, industry (for consumption!), jewelry or hoarders/stackers.

e.g. I just 'demanded' that my PM provider convert my Unallocated Pool Account holdings into my Allocated Bullion Account.   I can now visit it or take it out.  If someone else wants my non-hypothecated PM, they'll just have to get someone else's -- while they can -- or get more from the miners (via minters).

Fedaykinx's picture

<insert obvious comment about silver>

terryfuckwit's picture

silver gold and and bitcoin bitchez

uhb's picture

At the current level, i would be very careful being long bitcoins. wait for the end of the correction.

The Abstraction of Justice's picture

I did see the bottom today in Bitcoin, and it does have a history of bouncing back...and collapsing again. Still if you want to gamble, probably a bit safer than the average one armed bandit.

The Abstraction of Justice's picture

Well it did bounce back for about 2 hours.

draug's picture

Yeah I'd like me some of those bitcoin bitchez.

uhb's picture

Well Done Mr Roberts!

Despite the correct comment of billsykes. If Roberts knew price movements before, he wouldn't be writing.

Knowing where there market will be in 5 minutes took me more than 8 years. Knowing where there market will be in 5 months is extremely difficult... nobody knows for sure.

Yen Cross's picture

   The metals are being" BIG TIME", manipulated. The dollar sells off and the metals continue to sell off? WTF?

PontifexMaximus's picture

Nice charts, big rubbish, move on.

cynicalskeptic's picture

It takes a hell of a lot of effort and $$ for TPTB to paint those charts.......    it's not easy manipulating maerkets to create the patterns so sought by the chartists.  It's easy to bang closes now and then but th paint long term chartts - that'takes skill.

urbanelf's picture

Why 34 weeks?  What's magical about that time frame?

razorthin's picture

In the meantime - the real concern for investors should not be the fall of gold - but the overall stock market.

yup