• BullionStar
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IMF Slashes World GDP Expectations; Japan Only Beacon Of Global Growth Hope

Tyler Durden's picture


While expectations for global GDP growth are now expected to be +3.3% for 2013 against +3.2% for 2012, the IMF has just slashed the previously rosy 3.6% expectation as the global economy stalls. The US and Europe had significant cuts to their 2013 GDP growth expectations (though of course, this dip recovers hockey-stick-like in 2014). It will perhaps be surprising to learn that Japan had its growth expectation raised the most of all the major advanced and emerging nations. World Trade volume growth has also been cut notably - driven by a fall in the previously supposed driver of growth - emerging markets. The IMF's less sanguine forecasts, however, are caveated with hope-driven perspective such as expectations that Debt-to-GDP will drop for all nations from 2013 to 2018 and while energy remains a major downside risk to global growth, we were stunned to read that they cite S&P 500 option prices as an indicator of upside potential. It seems, even at the IMF, that the market is all that matters (oh and the Japanese printing press).


The global growth projection - quite a cone of uncertainty...with downside risk dominant


As the balance of risks is between oil market concerns and the ebullience of S&P 500 options prices!!! Is it any wonder that VIX is suppressed?


But have no fear as it is Japan that is to save us all...


Though Europe remains the drag...


But as is clear above - any slowdown will rapidly revert to more growthiness in 2014 - even though commoditty prices and economic activity shows no sign of that 'hope'...


Charts: IMF

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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456137 The Juggernaut
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International Mafia Foundation

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456144 redpill
redpill's picture

No kidding.  Keep in mind these are the prospects with all the printing they've done already!  It reminds me of when Ron Paul asked the Bernank, "What would it take for you to admit you could be wrong?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456146 The Juggernaut
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Bernuck's resignation. IMF: www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFC18pFvo1g
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:47 | 3456165 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Japan is a beacon of hope? Really?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:52 | 3456187 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Yeah, really!!!!!  Print like crazy and you will have a great economy.

Must go fondle my stacks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3456198 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

That's not a beacon, that's the radioactive glow from Fukushima.

Is this a comedy?  I'm finding it really hard to laugh anymore...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456188 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Headline would be right at home in The Onion.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:28 | 3456368 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

I like Kyle Bass' timeline. - I don't believe what I read here.  Japan might be the largest in infllation. Can they export that like the US?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:27 | 3456373 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Correction... "Japan is only beacon of Hopium".

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:01 | 3456620 Jumbotron
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"Correction... "Japan is only beacon of Hopium".


Abe-Wan, you're my only hope !

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 19:26 | 3458616 asteroids
asteroids's picture

You gotta be kidding. Does nobody study demographics. What a stupid report. More adult diapers were sold in Japan last year than baby diapers.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:25 | 3459599 StychoKiller
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My munny's on Godzira returning to smash up stuff! :>D

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:47 | 3456167 Everybodys All ...
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Bernanke has already been proven to be wrong with the weakest US economic recovery ever and yet he maintains he is right. Nothing short of men in white smocks taking this man away will work now.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:14 | 3456317 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

We are pinning the world recovery hopes on Japan??? ROTFLMAO!!

Bernank is leaving this mess to the next aristocrat banker appointed by the Fed. He might want to ask the President for some of that lifetime Secret Service protection that Obama gave himself. Or rent a room in Obama's basement.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:48 | 3456175 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

CNBC just ran a segment showing how California Numismatics claims they have a ton of volume lately....of people selling their physical coins/bars. Of course they showed one 3 toothed hillbilly buying silver.

Fair and balanced.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:52 | 3456191 kito
kito's picture

krugman dancing on golds grave fonz.......kick his ass....



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:02 | 3456195 Zer0head
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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456204 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

That's so screwed. i went to buy a present for my Mother for Mom's Day and all of what I wanted was already "out of stock" at APMEX. True, you can buy maples and that high volume stuff but the really nice coins gone...sold out.


I guess I'll have to get her something like a food processor from Kohls. Stores have lots of those in stock.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:39 | 3456460 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is amusing how CNBC is actually lying to try and support a GS paper trade.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456215 tahoebumsmith
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Or International Mind Fuck.. The only growth Japan will see is additional legs and arms on their highly radiated citizens. While the MSM is silent, the nuclear situation in Fukushima continues to deteriorate. Leaking storage pools abound and 40x readings all around Tokyo. The ocean is now so heavily contaminated with plutonium you can see the fish glowing at night. Japan is toast, the only thing they have been able to do thus far is cover-up the situation, meanwhile the radiation continues to make its way into highly populated areas...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:36 | 3456443 NoDebt
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Additional arms and legs, eh?  That may prove useful.  Higher productivity, higher standards of living.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:35 | 3459616 StychoKiller
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Some mutants are higher calibre than others! :>D

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:08 | 3456284 QE49er
QE49er's picture

All thats now left is an illusion of wealth

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:24 | 3456354 prains
prains's picture

IMF are the financial equivalent of a govt agency putting snipers on the roof at the first sign of trouble.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:42 | 3456827 Dutch Knight
Dutch Knight's picture

Have a look at thier predictions from september 2011  page 21  http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/pdf/text.pdf


Hope for Japan: well sad  HOPE

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:41 | 3456141 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Is this a tragedy, or a comedy? No one dare tell me it's real!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:41 | 3456142 HelluvaEngineer
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Japan?  Growth?  Well, I do hear the cockroaches are growing at an alarming rate.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456150 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Japan is the bright spot?


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:50 | 3456176 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

If Japan is a bright spot it can only be from the light generated by the fiat bon fire.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:50 | 3456177 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's bright in some regions of the E-M spectrum.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456207 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Yep.  Gammas.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456183 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Welcome to bizzaro world. If your country glows in the dark....then you're the shining example.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456210 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Damn, both must have been typing at the same time.

Can't get used to this new keyboard,the last one got Banziied beyond cleaning.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:54 | 3456194 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

It does glow in the dark.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456151 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

IMF say: Do more of what Japan is doing... because that really seems to work (not).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456154 pods
pods's picture

Japan is the growth savior?  

Nominally GDP might double, but that is what happens when you double the supply of funny money.

Maybe everyone should tack on a couple zeros on all our FRN's, then we will all be rich!


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456159 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely, looks like I will have to up the price in Yen for those pecans and walnuts (again).  Japan is so fucked.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:16 | 3456698 mercenaryomics
mercenaryomics's picture

Haha I saw this and immediately thought "Yeah, nominally."

Then again in nominal terms pigs could fly if you inflated gravity away, of course it would still be sitting on the ground but that's only in the real world, not the new nominal one.

Hopefully Japanese pensioners like catfood, pretty soon it's going to be on the menu. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:46 | 3456157 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!  Real growth requires real fucking inputs.  Where is this indebted island going to purchase those real inputs from?  They sure as hell don't have them.  Watch the supply lines closely now folks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:46 | 3456160 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Read a letter the other day written by a wealthy Japenese investor... he was pulling all of his investments from that market claiming that the goverment's currency manipulation was about to drive their economy into ground... What is the old saying... With beacons of hope like that who needs black lights?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:28 | 3456381 prains
prains's picture

i think it goes..... with bacon and dope all you need is black tights......off to walmart we go

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:48 | 3456162 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just admit it IMF pigs ..you have no clue and your only hope is for more chaos in the system.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456213 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

IMF-pigs: "More chaos? In the system? Sounds like a plan!"

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:49 | 3456169 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

Japan - LMFAO!


This was a joke, right?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456218 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture
More Fukushima nuclear pollution to hit U.S. starting in 2015 — Study: Impact strength of Cesium-137 on West Coast to be as high as 4 PERCENT




Thank you, Japan.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456174 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I don't know about you fellas, but I find it very reassuring that Spain and Italy will be all better next year.

(in my best moose voice) "This time for sure!"

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:11 | 3456298 marathonman
marathonman's picture

(in my best squirrel voice) "And now for something we hope you'll really like!"

(in my best Russian KGB agent voice) "We must get moose and squirrel."

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:08 | 3459740 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Boris:  "Who do you fear more, US Justice Systeem, or Central Control?"

Natasha: "I'll go get the car."

No worries, Fearless Leader will triumph!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456180 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Sounds like they are getting ready to play hot printing press potato. The FED and the other banks dial theirs back and let the Japanese turn theirs up to 11 * 11 now to make up for the difference. The global spice must flow at all costs regardless of who is printing it. It is just macro vs micro here.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456186 Mongo
Mongo's picture

LOL @ Japan


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