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IMF Slashes World GDP Expectations; Japan Only Beacon Of Global Growth Hope

Tyler Durden's picture


While expectations for global GDP growth are now expected to be +3.3% for 2013 against +3.2% for 2012, the IMF has just slashed the previously rosy 3.6% expectation as the global economy stalls. The US and Europe had significant cuts to their 2013 GDP growth expectations (though of course, this dip recovers hockey-stick-like in 2014). It will perhaps be surprising to learn that Japan had its growth expectation raised the most of all the major advanced and emerging nations. World Trade volume growth has also been cut notably - driven by a fall in the previously supposed driver of growth - emerging markets. The IMF's less sanguine forecasts, however, are caveated with hope-driven perspective such as expectations that Debt-to-GDP will drop for all nations from 2013 to 2018 and while energy remains a major downside risk to global growth, we were stunned to read that they cite S&P 500 option prices as an indicator of upside potential. It seems, even at the IMF, that the market is all that matters (oh and the Japanese printing press).


The global growth projection - quite a cone of uncertainty...with downside risk dominant


As the balance of risks is between oil market concerns and the ebullience of S&P 500 options prices!!! Is it any wonder that VIX is suppressed?


But have no fear as it is Japan that is to save us all...


Though Europe remains the drag...


But as is clear above - any slowdown will rapidly revert to more growthiness in 2014 - even though commoditty prices and economic activity shows no sign of that 'hope'...


Charts: IMF


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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456137 The Juggernaut
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International Mafia Foundation

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456144 redpill
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No kidding.  Keep in mind these are the prospects with all the printing they've done already!  It reminds me of when Ron Paul asked the Bernank, "What would it take for you to admit you could be wrong?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456146 The Juggernaut
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Bernuck's resignation. IMF:
Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:47 | 3456165 GetZeeGold
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Japan is a beacon of hope? Really?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:52 | 3456187 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Yeah, really!!!!!  Print like crazy and you will have a great economy.

Must go fondle my stacks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3456198 krispkritter
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That's not a beacon, that's the radioactive glow from Fukushima.

Is this a comedy?  I'm finding it really hard to laugh anymore...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456188 TeamDepends
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Headline would be right at home in The Onion.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:28 | 3456368 Atlasshruggedme
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I like Kyle Bass' timeline. - I don't believe what I read here.  Japan might be the largest in infllation. Can they export that like the US?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:27 | 3456373 Kirk2NCC1701
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Correction... "Japan is only beacon of Hopium".

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:01 | 3456620 Jumbotron
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"Correction... "Japan is only beacon of Hopium".


Abe-Wan, you're my only hope !

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 19:26 | 3458616 asteroids
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You gotta be kidding. Does nobody study demographics. What a stupid report. More adult diapers were sold in Japan last year than baby diapers.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:25 | 3459599 StychoKiller
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My munny's on Godzira returning to smash up stuff! :>D

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:47 | 3456167 Everybodys All ...
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Bernanke has already been proven to be wrong with the weakest US economic recovery ever and yet he maintains he is right. Nothing short of men in white smocks taking this man away will work now.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:14 | 3456317 lunaticfringe
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We are pinning the world recovery hopes on Japan??? ROTFLMAO!!

Bernank is leaving this mess to the next aristocrat banker appointed by the Fed. He might want to ask the President for some of that lifetime Secret Service protection that Obama gave himself. Or rent a room in Obama's basement.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:48 | 3456175 fonzannoon
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CNBC just ran a segment showing how California Numismatics claims they have a ton of volume lately....of people selling their physical coins/bars. Of course they showed one 3 toothed hillbilly buying silver.

Fair and balanced.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:52 | 3456191 kito
kito's picture

krugman dancing on golds grave fonz.......kick his ass....

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:02 | 3456195 Zer0head
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Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456204 Son of Loki
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That's so screwed. i went to buy a present for my Mother for Mom's Day and all of what I wanted was already "out of stock" at APMEX. True, you can buy maples and that high volume stuff but the really nice coins gone...sold out.


I guess I'll have to get her something like a food processor from Kohls. Stores have lots of those in stock.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:39 | 3456460 Quinvarius
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It is amusing how CNBC is actually lying to try and support a GS paper trade.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456215 tahoebumsmith
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Or International Mind Fuck.. The only growth Japan will see is additional legs and arms on their highly radiated citizens. While the MSM is silent, the nuclear situation in Fukushima continues to deteriorate. Leaking storage pools abound and 40x readings all around Tokyo. The ocean is now so heavily contaminated with plutonium you can see the fish glowing at night. Japan is toast, the only thing they have been able to do thus far is cover-up the situation, meanwhile the radiation continues to make its way into highly populated areas...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:36 | 3456443 NoDebt
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Additional arms and legs, eh?  That may prove useful.  Higher productivity, higher standards of living.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 00:35 | 3459616 StychoKiller
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Some mutants are higher calibre than others! :>D

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:08 | 3456284 QE49er
QE49er's picture

All thats now left is an illusion of wealth

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:24 | 3456354 prains
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IMF are the financial equivalent of a govt agency putting snipers on the roof at the first sign of trouble.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:42 | 3456827 Dutch Knight
Dutch Knight's picture

Have a look at thier predictions from september 2011  page 21


Hope for Japan: well sad  HOPE

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:41 | 3456141 Bearwagon
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Is this a tragedy, or a comedy? No one dare tell me it's real!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:41 | 3456142 HelluvaEngineer
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Japan?  Growth?  Well, I do hear the cockroaches are growing at an alarming rate.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456150 ebworthen
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Japan is the bright spot?


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:50 | 3456176 I am more equal...
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If Japan is a bright spot it can only be from the light generated by the fiat bon fire.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:50 | 3456177 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's bright in some regions of the E-M spectrum.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456207 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Yep.  Gammas.


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456183 GetZeeGold
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Welcome to bizzaro world. If your country glows in the dark....then you're the shining example.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456210 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Damn, both must have been typing at the same time.

Can't get used to this new keyboard,the last one got Banziied beyond cleaning.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:54 | 3456194 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

It does glow in the dark.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:43 | 3456151 FieldingMellish
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IMF say: Do more of what Japan is doing... because that really seems to work (not).

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:44 | 3456154 pods
pods's picture

Japan is the growth savior?  

Nominally GDP might double, but that is what happens when you double the supply of funny money.

Maybe everyone should tack on a couple zeros on all our FRN's, then we will all be rich!


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456159 LawsofPhysics
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Precisely, looks like I will have to up the price in Yen for those pecans and walnuts (again).  Japan is so fucked.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:16 | 3456698 mercenaryomics
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Haha I saw this and immediately thought "Yeah, nominally."

Then again in nominal terms pigs could fly if you inflated gravity away, of course it would still be sitting on the ground but that's only in the real world, not the new nominal one.

Hopefully Japanese pensioners like catfood, pretty soon it's going to be on the menu. 

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:46 | 3456157 LawsofPhysics
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LMFAO!!!  Real growth requires real fucking inputs.  Where is this indebted island going to purchase those real inputs from?  They sure as hell don't have them.  Watch the supply lines closely now folks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:46 | 3456160 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

Read a letter the other day written by a wealthy Japenese investor... he was pulling all of his investments from that market claiming that the goverment's currency manipulation was about to drive their economy into ground... What is the old saying... With beacons of hope like that who needs black lights?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:28 | 3456381 prains
prains's picture

i think it goes..... with bacon and dope all you need is black to walmart we go

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:48 | 3456162 Dr. Engali
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Just admit it IMF pigs have no clue and your only hope is for more chaos in the system.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456213 Bearwagon
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IMF-pigs: "More chaos? In the system? Sounds like a plan!"

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:49 | 3456169 Stonedog
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Japan - LMFAO!


This was a joke, right?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456218 Son of Loki
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More Fukushima nuclear pollution to hit U.S. starting in 2015 — Study: Impact strength of Cesium-137 on West Coast to be as high as 4 PERCENT


Thank you, Japan.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456174 Agent P
Agent P's picture

I don't know about you fellas, but I find it very reassuring that Spain and Italy will be all better next year.

(in my best moose voice) "This time for sure!"

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:11 | 3456298 marathonman
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(in my best squirrel voice) "And now for something we hope you'll really like!"

(in my best Russian KGB agent voice) "We must get moose and squirrel."

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:08 | 3459740 StychoKiller
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Boris:  "Who do you fear more, US Justice Systeem, or Central Control?"

Natasha: "I'll go get the car."

No worries, Fearless Leader will triumph!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456180 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Sounds like they are getting ready to play hot printing press potato. The FED and the other banks dial theirs back and let the Japanese turn theirs up to 11 * 11 now to make up for the difference. The global spice must flow at all costs regardless of who is printing it. It is just macro vs micro here.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:51 | 3456186 Mongo
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LOL @ Japan


Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:55 | 3456196 madcows
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Can it really be called "Growth" if it's entirely funded with borrowed money?  DEBT Growth is not Economic Growth.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456224 Sudden Debt
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As long as there's enough idiots to front you the money when you don't really have a plan to ever pay it back... the answer... is yes...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:56 | 3456212 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:57 | 3456222 rsnoble
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If Japan is our only hope boy are we fucked.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456229 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Plan B is Atlantis...


Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:10 | 3459743 StychoKiller
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There's still Plan C...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 10:58 | 3456228 Everybodys All ...
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The IMF considers inflation as growth. How else can you get there orange lady? Wtf.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:01 | 3456247 Caveman93
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If Japan is our last and best hope we are truly fucking hosed! Can I please get a flight off this rock?

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:03 | 3456248 suteibu
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BOJ upgrades economic assessments for all 9 regions

The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of all nine regional economies in its latest quarterly report, taking particular note of the depreciating yen and rising stock prices.

The Sakura Report released April 15 said the regional economies are all in better shape than three months ago. The assessment marks a sharp reversal from its January report, when the central bank said eight of the regional economies had worsened.

It was the first time in three quarters that the BOJ upgraded its assessment for all nine regions.

“Our nation’s economy has stopped weakening and shown signs of picking up,” a beaming BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told a meeting of the central bank’s branch managers on April 15. “It will move toward a moderate recovery.” (Asahi Shimbun)

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:13 | 3459748 StychoKiller
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I once had Raquel Welch on my left side and Barbara Eden on the right, but then I woke up!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:02 | 3456250 yogibear
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"Japan Only Beacon Of Global Growth"

LOL, is this article a joke? 

Why are "The Onion" articles being posted in Zero Hedge?



Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:09 | 3456291 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Since 2008 when you elected a actor into the white house...

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:13 | 3459750 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Oh no, ya can't pin that one on me, I voted for Kodos!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:04 | 3456253 Kina
Kina's picture

Don't worry about Krugman... his Keynsian printing bonanza fantasia has double fracked the USA. Next a tripple fracking as they push the hyper pring button.


Lest we get to be a repair base for Martian spaceships what answers are there to the US problem.

There is no answer. Stagnation globally, bankrupt nations and industries everywhere...burried in debt....and only can survive by the bankrupt bailing out the bankrupt....and printing each month to pay the bills.

What options do they actually have?

Print more and more and more. Steal everbody's wealth. Go straight to a gold standard. Revalue gold $5000 or whatever...


Printing until a black swan smashes everything.

Gold standard to back the USD.


What else.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:44 | 3456839 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

After a debt Jubilee. Its the accumulated debt thats killing the entire world.

After that a  gold standard ,and no fractional banking or interest,

The old Arab banking method made the bank an equity partner in everything,interst

was not allowed.Worked for a long time before it was corrupted.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:07 | 3456269 SheepDog-One
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Must be nice to just sit around all day with a Sharpie and a protractor drawing projection lines.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:14 | 3459751 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

These jokesters don't have the fine-motor skillz to even color within the lines!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:09 | 3456273 polo007
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The Internet has also made it possible for truth seekers to understand the complex policy of financial repression that explains the current historically low negative real interest rates, restrictions that appear to benefit government and banks at the expense of pensioners and savers and the desperate need to shake people out of gold and savings and into the stock markets. Financial repression is a policy that explains the "why" of this mystery. A thorough investigation of financial repression can be gleaned from such documents as the NBER working paper, The Liquidation of Government Debt by Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia or the exhaustive work of financial analyst Gordon T. Long.
Through such investigation we will find that, just as Cyprus revealed bank depositors are viewed as "unsecured creditors" by the central banks, financial repression teaches us that pensioners and savers are viewed as a direct source of funding for government debt and are the victims rather than the beneficiaries of such government policies. The global fiat- or debt-based model that has existed since President Nixon removed the U.S. dollar's final international peg with gold in 1971 is in many ways the polar opposite to the value-based model that exists when a currency is pegged in some way to gold. Although most pensioners were brought up to believe that debt is bad, that saving and living within one's means is virtuous, in the bizarre world of fiat debt-based finance, the opposite is true.
Mounting debts are becoming unsustainable at government, business and personal levels, and must be addressed. Yet the fiat reality has spoiled Western investors, and direct taxation and austerity measures are a Western politician's guarantee of removal from public office. Therefore, indirect taxation, rules that make assumption of government debt through mandatory Treasury purchases by large funds, and debt reduction through currency debasement are the preferred option for reducing debt. All of these policies rob taxpayers and punish savers.
Precious metals are the one asset class that still remains beyond the control of central bankers and government policy makers. Precious metals are limited in supply and, although the paper market has demonstrated its ability to temporarily affect the price of gold and silver, it cannot change the fundamentals. Precious metals paper instruments such as ETF shares, mining shares and futures and options sustained even more damage during this longest correction in gold since 2000. Those who continue to own bullion to which they hold title are unaffected. Their holdings still retain purchasing power even while government policies decimate the purchasing power of paper currencies. An ounce of gold will still buy approximately the same number of loaves of bread as it would have in Biblical times.
There is another unexpected consequence of currency debasement that might also be responsible for this desperate campaign against gold. Japan's decision to win the "race to debase" has resulted in unprecedented Japanese gold buying as the yen weakens against the yellow metal. As several commentators have noticed, the gold war has become a battle of titans as vast amounts of Eastern capital challenges Western capital for the limited supply of physical gold.
Another clue is provided by the spate of new China-centric trade alliances that seek to circumvent the U.S. dollar. Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and now Australia are all moving towards multi-billion dollar trade agreements that will bypass the use of the U.S. dollar completely. This is a significant threat to the U.S. dollar's global hegemony and a direct threat to the policy of financial repression, as this alone could force interest rates higher. By one account a single-point move in official inflation could add a trillion dollars to the outstanding U.S. debt because of indexed pensions and other unfunded government liabilities. This is another reason gold, the only true threat to paper currencies, and a much clearer indication of true inflation than doctored government CPI figures, must be discredited through price depreciation.
Financial repression is all about control of information. The well-timed, coordinated torrent of gold-negative reports such as those from Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale's The end of the gold era, each warning investors to flee the gold market, were highly suspicious examples of their cozy relationship with the central banks.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:38 | 3456449 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

They are doing the same with Treasuries right now. T-bills are cash for all practical purposes, they can't fuck with those except crush interest rates. When they are in full out theft mode it the last safe haven if you have your savings locked up in a pension or 401k where they can't steal it outright. The stock market sheep slaughter is about ready to commence. There has been a great disturbance in the farce, though I suspect they've been planning this the whole time and just been systematically head faking people with their shills on CNBC and financial news outlets bashing gold and telling people to there is no inflation so get out of TIIPS and away from t-bills in general. I maybe proved wrong and that is fine but my gut and I'm sure others will agree is saying danger Will Robinson danger even if we don't know exactly what it is.

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:22 | 3459761 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Thanks Captain Obvious, where would we be without you?!

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:09 | 3456287 R_J
R_J's picture

-World Economic Outlook Update
-Gradual Upturn in Global Growth During 2013
-January 23, 2013

"Global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside. However, this upturn is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO) projections. Policy actions have lowered acute crisis risks in the euro area and the United States. But in the euro area, the return to recovery after a protracted contraction is delayed. While Japan has slid into recession, stimulus is expected to boost growth in the near term. At the same time, policies have supported a modest growth pickup in some emerging market economies, although others continue to struggle with weak external demand and domestic bottlenecks. If crisis risks do not materialize and financial conditions continue to improve, global growth could be stronger than projected. However, downside risks remain significant, including renewed setbacks in the euro area and risks of excessive near-term fiscal consolidation in the United States. Policy action must urgently address these risks."

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:20 | 3456339 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

Wow - I didn't know the IMF did stand up comedy in its growth projection

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:39 | 3456459 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Hope"?  More like more Hopium.

It's plain to see that the Developed countries are screwed:  Aging population, mounting debt due to over-leveraged paper/tertiary 'wealth' ("vapor-wealth").  Aided & abetted by politicians, who are happy to borrow money for socialism + warfare.

The rest of the world is getting tired of working for them, especially since they can now make their own LCDTV, PCs and iToys.  First World will go over the cliff at  this rate, especially if they stay in Club Fed.

Buckle up!


Wed, 04/17/2013 - 02:23 | 3459764 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

If I were to tell you I have a handful of dilithium krystals, would you beam me and my family on board yer ship?  Thanks in advance...

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:44 | 3456472 WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

Why do they keep putting out bullish data like this?  The markets love it.

We have recovered 40% of yesterday so far, I am sure by the close it will be half.  Tomorrow we recover the rest.  End of week we are abovee 1600 on ES.

GDP could be cut to -20% and the Dow would likely push to 15000+ easy.  Bad is good, Good is good.


Absolutely nothing has changed since yesterday.  The momo algos are still in there buying futures.  Any backoff is met with aggressive buying to turn the market higher.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 11:44 | 3456508 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What can go wrong? BTFD looks alive and well.

Tue, 04/16/2013 - 12:04 | 3456645 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I guess we must abandon the concept of conventional wisdom for conventional thinking. As wisdom is only applicable in a free and rational world, we must accept that if everyone else is doing it, so should we, or our contrarian ways will always lead to our defeat. Orwell's 1984 painted a pretty bleak picture of things but he made it clear that to go against conventional thinking would lead to misery, and he ends his tale with no other message. We are 1984. It is becoming increasingly obvious that it's too late. Resistance is futile. BTFD....I feel like puking

Wed, 04/17/2013 - 05:21 | 3459905 Notarocketscientist
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China could build more empty apartments and ghost towns

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